Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and

13»

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    Wrong, very wrong.

    Sanders is the second choice for 32% of Biden voters, compared to just 11% es from Hillary's
    Sanders got those vote shares because his opponent was Hillary Clinton. He was in a two horse race: don't like Hillary, there's... there's... there's...

    Errr. Bernie.

    Hillary was a dreadful candidate, who wasn't even liked by her own party. That's why Bernie did so well.

    Those Biden voters who you think will break for Bernie, well they might. But most of them have never seen Buttigieg or Yang or Hickenlooper yet.
    Look at the Ashcroft polling last week, 57% of Democratic voters want more liberal, progressive candidates, only 28% want more moderate, centrist candidates. Democrats picked a centrist last time and lost, they are not going to pick a candidate rehashing Hillary's policies, they want their own Corbyn and they will vote for Sanders to get it.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/04/the-battle-lines-for-2020-what-my-polling-says-about-the-next-presidential-election/

    Hickelooper or Buttigieg ie Hillary 2.0 in policy terms are not what the Democratic base wants at the moment, indeed Hickenlooper is just a Democratic version of Kasich in 2016
    You've decided that Buttigieg has Clinton policies based on... errr.. errr...

    Buttigieg has - like almost all political winners in history - avoided detailing his exact policies. Winners are those are a blank slate, onto which voters can project their own policies. Being likeable and vague wins more votes than being dislikeable and specific*.

    * Hillary was dislikeable and specific.
    Buttigieg is not going to win over the blue collar voters the Democrats need in the swing states to beat Trump, as a VP prospect or in 5 years time once Trump has left the scene he might be worth looking at but not now if the Democrats want to try and win in 2020
    "Buttigieg is not going to win over the blue collar voters the Democrats need in the swing states to beat Trump"

    This would be the Mayor of a blue collar Midwest town, right?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited April 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    He is the candidate that will have a solid group backing him as the rest fight over scraps. If they get close to the conference and Sanders has a decent lead over the next nearest candidate I can't see the Dems being stupid enough to stitch it up for another candidate....
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 98
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    Wrong, very wrong.

    Sanders is the second choice for 32% of Biden voters, compared to just 11% es from Hillary's
    Sanders got those vote shares because his opponent was Hillary Clinton. He was in a two horse race: don't like Hillary, there's... there's... there's...

    Errr. Bernie.

    Hillary was a dreadful candidate, who wasn't even liked by her own party. That's why Bernie did so well.

    Those Biden voters who you think will break for Bernie, well they might. But most of them have never seen Buttigieg or Yang or Hickenlooper yet.
    Look at the Ashcroft polling last week, 57% of Democratic voters want more liberal, progressive candidates, only 28% want more moderate, centrist candidates. Democrats picked a centrist last time and lost, they are not going to pick a candidate rehashing Hillary's policies, they want their own Corbyn and they will vote for Sanders to get it.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/04/the-battle-lines-for-2020-what-my-polling-says-about-the-next-presidential-election/

    Hickelooper or Buttigieg ie Hillary 2.0 in policy terms are not what the Democratic base wants at the moment, indeed Hickenlooper is just a Democratic version of Kasich in 2016
    You've decided that Buttigieg has Clinton policies based on... errr.. errr...

    Buttigieg has - like almost all political winners in history - avoided detailing his exact policies. Winners are those are a blank slate, onto which voters can project their own policies. Being likeable and vague wins more votes than being dislikeable and specific*.

    * Hillary was dislikeable and specific.
    Buttigieg is not going to win over the blue collar voters the Democrats need in the swing states to beat Trump, as a VP prospect or in 5 years time once Trump has left the scene he might be worth looking at but not now if the Democrats want to try and win in 2020
    "Buttigieg is not going to win over the blue collar voters the Democrats need in the swing states to beat Trump"

    This would be the Mayor of a blue collar Midwest town, right?
    The one who got reelected with an 80% vote, a few weeks after coming out.
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 98
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    Is it still winner takes all in these primaries?
    Nope. It's all proportional.

    Which means a contested convention is possible to probable. Which is another reason why Sanders won't be the nominee.
    Why? O'Rourke delegates, Warren delegates, some Biden delegates will all transfer to Sanders, at this moment Sanders is the likely nominee
    LOL!

    Sanders IS NOT A MEMBER OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. This means there will be enormous pressure from the DNC for delegates not to switch to Sanders. So, sure, if he's on 45% of the delegate count he *might* win a contested convention. But on 20% of them, not a chance.
    I think he is now a Democrat.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    rcs1000 said:



    France and India have working aircraft carriers (and we don't). Russia has a sort of, occasionally working aircraft carrier.

    The Kuznetsov is dead and Russian carrier capability has gone with it. Some drunk bastard sunk the floating dry dock it was in at Murmansk which damaged the ship badly. The Russian Navy does not have the funds to repair what was already a floating shit box and have given up on it.
    Scratch "has" and replace with "had".

    :)
    Even 'had' is pushing it. In 29 years of service with the Northern Fleet the Kuznetsov has been to sea 6 times.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    He is the candidate that will have a solid group backing him as the rest fight over scraps. If they get close to the conference and Sanders has a decent lead over the next nearest candidate I can't see the Dems being stupid enough to stitch it up for another candidate....
    Why would the rest be fighting over scraps? The field has always consolidated before, I don't see why it wouldn't consolidate this time.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    He is the candidate that will have a solid group backing him as the rest fight over scraps. If they get close to the conference and Sanders has a decent lead over the next nearest candidate I can't see the Dems being stupid enough to stitch it up for another candidate....
    Why would the rest be fighting over scraps? The field has always consolidated before, I don't see why it wouldn't consolidate this time.
    It is a big field, it'll narrow down a little but not enough quickly enough. I don't see it going to a 1v1 contest as Hillary vs Sanders did, not soon enough. The Sanders supporters really want Sanders, the pain of 2016 probably drives them even more. Many of the others probably have large sections of support that would be happy with another candidate. Sanders is the only one currently who has a large Sanders or bust base and that makes a huge difference in a big field.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    edited April 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Mary Beard seems to have really wound up the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1119349139731570688?s=21

    From a purely factual point of view, are we really the third greatest military power in the world?

    I mean, the US is obviously number one.

    But then there are a host of countries who could make a pretty good claim to be above the UK;

    - China
    Lots more people. Nuclear weapons. Their own fighters.

    - Russia
    Lots more people. Nuclear weapons. Their own fighters.

    - France
    About the same number of people. Nuclear weapons. Working aircraft carriers with actual aircraft. Their own fighters.

    - Japan
    Quite a few more people. Much bigger budget.

    And that's ignoring India (also has at least one working aircraft carrier), Israel (much smaller forces, but you'd have to fancy them in a fight), and North Korea (simply because there's a load of them).

    I'd reckon we're probably fifth, if we're going to be honest.
    We'll soon see about India, once we're out of the EU and free to start regaining our Empire.

    Though my guess is that once Prime Minister Farage threatens them with the loss of their foreign aid handouts, most of these "countries" will fall into line without a shot being fired.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Mary Beard seems to have really wound up the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1119349139731570688?s=21

    The interesting thing about this, is that I think it's back to front. For the most part, I think Brexiteers are more concerned with what we do with our own country. It's Remainers who are more concerned with our status on the world stage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,166
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Loads of US news sources saying Biden will announce on Wednesday.

    Biden-Buttigieg?

    Biden is Hillary to Obama's Buttigieg.

    Sanders is the 20% kid. He'll get 20% in Iowa. He'll get 20% in New Hampshire. But his problem is that he won't get the transfers, and while a fifth of the votes might make you tier one in the first few contests, it'll make you an irrelevancy further on in the process.

    Wrong, very wrong.

    Sanders is the second choice for 32% of Biden voters, compared to just 11% es from Hillary's
    Sanders got those vote shares because his opponent was Hillary Clinton. He was in a two horse race: don't like Hillary, there's... there's... there's...

    Errr. Bernie.

    Hillary was a dreadful candidate, who wasn't even liked by her own party. That's why Bernie did so well.

    Those Biden voters who you think will break for Bernie, well they might. But most of them have never seen Buttigieg or Yang or Hickenlooper yet.
    Look at the Ashcroft polling last week, 57% of Democratic voters want more liberal, progressive candidates, only 28% want more moderate, centrist candidates. Democrats picked a centrist last time and lost, they are not going to pick a candidate rehashing Hillary's policies, they want their own Corbyn and they will vote for Sanders to get it.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/04/the-battle-lines-for-2020-what-my-polling-says-about-the-next-presidential-election/

    Hickelooper or Buttigieg ie Hillary 2.0 in policy terms are not what the Democratic base wants at the moment, indeed Hickenlooper is just a Democratic version of Kasich in 2016
    You've decided that Buttigieg has Clinton policies based on... errr.. errr...

    Buttigieg has - like almost all political winners in history - avoided detailing his exact policies. Winners are those are a blank slate, onto which voters can project their own policies. Being likeable and vague wins more votes than being dislikeable and specific*.

    * Hillary was dislikeable and specific.
    Buttigieg is not going to win over the blue collar voters the Democrats need in the swing states to beat Trump, as a VP prospect or in 5 years time once Trump has left the scene he might be worth looking at but not now if the Democrats want to try and win in 2020
    "Buttigieg is not going to win over the blue collar voters the Democrats need in the swing states to beat Trump"

    This would be the Mayor of a blue collar Midwest town, right?
    Buttigieg is Mayor of a city that has voted Democrat at every election since 1972
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,626
    edited April 2019
    Four more bank holidays will mean four fewer free choice holidays for most workers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    tlg86 said:

    Mary Beard seems to have really wound up the Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1119349139731570688?s=21

    The interesting thing about this, is that I think it's back to front. For the most part, I think Brexiteers are more concerned with what we do with our own country. It's Remainers who are more concerned with our status on the world stage.
    Certainly we hear a lot more about people thinking it's the days of empire from remainers than leavers. Such leavers exist, certainly, but for the most part it's a misleading and very lazy crutch of some remainers, who should know better, in assuming leavers are all obsessed with the idea were a superpower. Were not. Were a decently sized power and that's ok. It isn't a choice between superpower and nothing, most leavers wont be surprised about that.
This discussion has been closed.