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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting
Back in March Henry G Manson gave what might prove to be one of the best ever political betting tips here when he said get on Sadiq Khan, then at 33/1, for next London Mayor.
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Not sure today's YG has been reported - Tories up to 35 so lead is down to 4: Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -27. Secondaries drifting slightly the other way, but all MOE stuff.
Khan and Lammy are the frontrunners.
Andrea 1 : 0 Mark Senior
Newport - Lab HOLD
"tim" - Red Card - serious foul play
Maybe he has some "leverage" to help out ?
First post too.
To compete Labour need a big personality - but who ??
O/T. You've got to laugh. I would have loved to be in the room when the marketing guy did the sell to the executives.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/norway/10416304/Norwegian-shop-apologises-for-putting-fake-human-limbs-in-freezer-section-as-part-of-Halloween-joke.html
"There is grim news for shadow London minister Sadiq Khan who has a mountain to climb, with just five per cent of voters saying he would be the best Labour candidate. Even among Labour supporters, he manages only nine per cent and was beaten by sacked shadow public health minister Diane Abbott, with 13 per cent support among Labour backers, and former higher education minister David Lammy on 10 per cent."
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tessa-jowell-is-frontrunner-for-labour--if-eddie-izzard-isnt-in-2016-race-for-london-mayor-8881501.html
So why is he now best placed? What's changed in two weeks? Someone placing bets to develop a "now front runner" story?
.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2482513/Labour-donor-aided-union-thugs-How-Milibands-millionaire-friend-gave-vital-support-Unite-militants.html#comments
He points to several major issues but I would highlight education. The complacency and low aspirations of our educational establishment in light of international figures showing a shockingly poor level of attainment is a major problem but Warner does not point his fire in that direction. Instead he focusses on increasing inequality in our society and the problem that this creates for so many of our children whose educational oportunities are seriously dented before they even get to school.
So much of the ephemera that our political classes waste their time on and we end up discussing on here do not get close to addressing these sorts of issues which put our childrens' wealth and standard of living at risk. I think that some of the things Gove is doing will help, some won't. But at least his is trying and his passion for improving the opportunities for the poor and disadvantaged seems real even if some policies are misguided. What he is fighting is an educational establishment that is so complacent and self satisfied as a result of grade inflation that they have lost all sight of what they need to achieve. The closed shop type argument about qualified teachers having a particular qualification is only the most recent example.
In Scotland the educational establishment makes those in England look like radical fundamentalists. The SNP government has had absolutely no interest in taking on vested interests or rocking any boats prior to the vote but the idea that Scotland could have a viable future with our current educational system really is for the birds.
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 31st October - Con 35%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%; APP -26
TJ is strong no doubt, but lacks va-va voom, Diane Abbot fails the too bonkers test, Eddie Izzard 2020, and no one really knows who SK is.
David Lammy for me. He really wants it and that will matter.
Tory? Seb or Boris I suppose if either decides to run (again).
Labour VI - Best Labour candidate for London mayor 2016:
Izard: 20
Jowell: 20
Abbott: 13
Lammy: 10
Khan: 9
Adonis: 6
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s0lk2x3jyd/YG-Archive-London-Evening-Standard-results-111013.pdf
Obviously Unite might use some leverage to block it.
"The limbs not only looked incredibly realistic themselves, but they also came with nutritional information stickers."
!!!!!!!
Having said that I love Jonathan's "Yes We Khan"!!
William Lowe has died aged 72. In 1980 he persuaded IBM management to let a small team of a dozen people create a personal computer, free of the rigorous controls the company usually used. After two other failed PC projects by IBM, the small tiger team created what was known as the IBM PC.
Not having enough resource to create an operating system, they decided to buy one, eventually settling for one from a small company run by a certain Bill Gates. He also decided that the new computer would have an open architecture, allowing expansion cards.
Hence started the entire IBM PC compatible industry. In my mind Lowe's decision to break away from IBM corporate culture was one of the defining moments in the computer industry. In this, he was far more influential than even Steve Jobs.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24725678
RIP.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8330/comment-page-1#comment-870159
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/31/if-the-mail-was-wrong-on-ed-milibands-dad-then-unite-are-wrong-to-target-ineos-managers-families-and-labour-needs-to-say-so/
"The outrage from the Labour party on the Daily Mail’s piece on Ralph Miliband was voluble and justified. Silence on Unite’s antics now will abrogate any moral authority the party had in criticising the Mail. Morality isn’t a one-way street. Principles don’t apply selectively. Either everyone connected with an adversary is fair game, or they’re not."
'Ukip in Scotland thrown into chaos amid rumours of leadership coup
One senior source said: "It's an utter shambles. We've no organisation, Mike Scott-Hayward is nowhere to be seen, no-one's heard from Christopher (Lord) Monckton (Ukip Scottish president) and it's really not like any political party I've ever heard of. Communications disappear into a black hole, there's brewing friction and internal politics has taken over. Every party has divisions but there's no structures here to deal with it. It's all very demoralising."'
http://tinyurl.com/p5daygu
Khan is Shadow Minister for London, Shadow Lord Chancellor & Shadow Secretary of State for Justice....
Lammy declined Miliband's invitation to join the Shadow Cabinet.
Personally I have a lot of time for Khan - he's taken a number of principled stands (gay marriage, for one) a more devious politician might have wriggled out of - but its Londoner's opinions that matters - and much as it would be great for them to nominate a Muslim, it looks like a long shot.....
Once again, Independence from England is the panacea to problems created in Scotland!
If they had not done bought the OS from Microsoft, then the IBM PC compatibles would not have been possible, and the industry would have been very different in the 1980s and 1990s. Without IBM backing one or other 'winner', there would have been much more competition between architectures and OS's throughout the 1980s and a great deal of money wasted.
In other words, it was what the industry needed.
....So a proxy for being tough on public spending, but HS2 is also an issue about leadership and being able to take tough, long-term decisions. If the former is a weak spot for Labour, then so is the latter. David Cameron’s goading that Labour was abandoning the cross-party consensus on HS2 hit home."
The Daily Mail
The Telegraph
The Times
The Sun
The Daily Express
Labour Uncut:
http://tinyurl.com/p92uslh
"Finger on the pulse, eh, Roger?"
LOL!
Guilty.
PS You'll be pleased to know my hairdresser said to me yesterday "What do you think of the trade union story in Scotland? It's back to the 70's!!"
Many backbenchers are livid with Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, for voicing doubts and warning that Labour will not support the project if costs rise too much.
Now sources have revealed that up to 40 MPs turned up to a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party's transport committee, which would usually only attract a handful of MPs, to express their anger.
Seventeen Labour MPs, many representing constituencies in the north, spoke out in support of HS2. Only two said anything against.
Jack Straw, the former Cabinet minister, warned that he would bring a motion to the PLP if the party shifted its position."
http://news.sky.com/story/1161874/labour-party-rocked-by-internal-hs2-policy-row
The Two Eds did not vote last night.....
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-10-31/halloween-2013/
Welcome to the gang, and please post more. There is a dearth of punting posters.
Finally caught Greengrass' Captain Philips yesterday - very well done.
"Khan ok as a trading bet ...."
Yes, in much the same way as Usain Bolt is an ok runner....
It was effing brilliant, TG, and just exactly the sort of thing people come to PB.com.
Khan doesn't have to win. If you got on at 33s, as Henry suggested, you could cash in now, or just cover your stake and have a free bet with a big upside.
Don't tell me you missed out...again?
I voted for Boris last time and think he's done a good job. Not sure he would want to run again and it would probably be in his best interests to leave with most people feeling he did a pretty decent job.
I like Lammy and might go for him. Khan does, in truth, has a slightly slippery past. But he does have some charisma, and a Muslim Mayor would be nice. Izzard is a good comedian and I'd prefer him to stay in that line of business, but he would be a serious candidate if he runs.
I wouldn't vote for Jowell, but agree with those who say she could win if she runs.
Finally, a big and genuine thank you to HenryG. It was an outstanding tip, whatever happens next, and the best possible answer to his critics, most of whom couldn't tip the winner of a one-horse race.
I'll get my cape ....
And as for Izzard, apart from being an ingénue which has an attraction, he is hopelessly naive, out of touch on Europe and the Euro and for my money is not certain to ally himself to any political party.
I know the mayor has advisors but there are serious policy and ££ decisions to make and just to be a celeb won't cut it.
Let Eddie be Official London Jester.
Lord Coe might stop playing hard to get, I suppose. It's a bit of a bugger when the man saying "chase me" is an Olympic gold medal holder.
Henry G's tip of Sadiq Khan was an outstanding one.
Don't forget to pick up your pedantry prize on the way out.
Disappointing day on the nags yesterday. You up for some more hints later, or you fed up now?
That is going to be up there with dismissing Bitcoin when it was trading at a fiver, missing a +9 point day from my regular tipster after a 40 point negative downswing, not being able to get onto Betfair in the dieing seconds of the Prem league to put a 'saver' on Man City when I'd backed Man U at 8-1 with the famous 2 dieing second goal. Somehow not posting a Nathalie Gumede Strictly bet...
Shaun Bailey (Hammersmith 2010)
Oliver Dowden (Deputy Chiefs of Staff to David Cameron)
Suella Fernandes (Leicester East 2005, barrister)
Mike Fisher (Croydon Council Leader)
Lucy Frazer (barrister from Hampstead)
Nusrat Ghani (Birmingham Ladywood 2010, joined the party in 2009)
Melanie Hampton (Mitcham and Morden 2010)
Nigel Huddleston (Luton South 2010, shortlisted in Newark)
Rachel Joyce (Harrow West 2010, forced to resign as Deputy PCC in Hertfordshire earlier this year after retweeting a message saying that Hitler was a socialist)
Kit Malthouse (Deputy Mayor of London)
Chris Philp (Hampstead and Kilburn 2010, shorltisted in Tonbridge and Malling)
Ruth Porter (Head of Economics and Social Policy at Policy Exchange)
Laura Trott (Camden Cllr, SpAd to Cameron, former SpAd to Maude)
Charlotte Vere (Brighton Pavillion 2010)
Gordon Brown
To limit the figures to a relatively small amount when Labour had created the bureaucracy monster with a huge redundancy tail is great work.
Check your inbox btw.
Khan ain't going to be Mayor of London. He is a grey, earnest man and Londoners need some colour and spice. Plus they can be bloody-minded if they choose. Theresa is has-beeny, Izzard a joke and not standing which leaves...
Step forward Labour Candidate and likely winner and next Mayor of London...
David Lammy
pic.twitter.com/L63edqT4zz
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/72bdab36-4190-11e3-b064-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2jNtHiE50
"For all George Osborne’s protestations that “growth is balanced across all sectors of the economy”, so far the chancellor has seen little rebalancing from services to manufacturing, from London to the regions, from consumption to investment and exports.
Most worrying is the breakdown of total expenditure. After a 25 per cent depreciation of sterling, Britain’s current account deficit has barely improved, a situation Charlie Bean, Bank of England deputy governor, called “distinctly disappointing”. British exporters have performed far worse than their counterparts in Ireland, Spain and Portugal. Falls in investment have been detracting from economic growth since 2010 with private consumption again becoming the main driver of expansion."
"The chancellor’s approach is similar to that of Lord King, the former Bank of England governor, who regularly talked of a “paradox of policy” in which it was necessary to stimulate consumption with loose monetary policy in the short term with the hope that rapid initial unbalanced growth would soon give way to higher business investment, more exports and domestic substitutes for imports.
The current governor favours a different approach. In his groundbreaking speech last week, Mr Carney moved away from Lord King’s disdain for growth led by financial services and the City of London and instead embraced the idea, within a strong regulatory framework.
“If organised properly, a vibrant financial sector brings substantial benefits,” he said, envisioning a world in 2050 where banking assets grew from four times national income to nine times. “The Bank of England’s task is to ensure that the UK can host a large and expanding financial sector in a way that promotes financial stability. Only then can it be both a global good and a national asset,” he added, while insisting later: “We’re not cheerleading for the City”."
"Art" is always an interesting one. Personally I take the view that Hirst and Emin's works are complete dogshit, but I'm a big fan of Dali. I'm sure people thought Dali's works were complete tosh when he was alive too (And now I suppose). Appealing to people with big bank accounts is the name of the game in art.
Osborne seemed pretty chipper on the Today program today as well. Although I would have preferred a firmer grasping of the nettle by the creation of a separate bad bank all of our regulators and policy makers seem to have finally focussed on the horrendous macro-economic implications of the RBS disaster which has undoubtedly been a major drag on growth and investment in the UK for the last 5 years.
LOL!
I'm with you on Bitcoin. Got onto the site but couldn't understand it.
Plenty of other painful memories too, mostly too painful to recount here.
Incidentally the 'Open Primary' for choosing Charles Hendry's successor in Wealden will be held on the evening of Thursday 5th December at the East Sussex National near Uckfield (it's more an 'open hustings' than a primary in the US sense). There will be a shortlist of four candidates. Any Wealden voter can take part, but you need to register by 3rd December.
http://www.wealdenconservatives.com/open-primary-0
Clue - both are big numbers - one is negative (ie mortgage debt being paid off ) , one is positive (ie people releasing funds from their house value).
Even you should be able to guess which is which without the tedium of looking at the BoE figures.
http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/banksy-altered-painting-brings-615000-at-auction/
http://www.banksyny.com
Whether its 'art' or not - I think he greatly added to the gaiety of New York!
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/11/01/theres-no-global-wine-shortage/
"A leading academic warned the move was inevitable because of European laws and Scotland’s innate hostility towards sophisticated outsiders."
Dali was an extrememly accomplished technicin, and this was evident from a very early age.
Some of his very early works hang in the museum dedicated to him in St Petersburg, Florida, and it is clear that if he had been so minded he could have been a highly-respected painter in the figurative tradition. It's our good fortune that he discovered surrealism and other forms of artistic expression.
Love or loathe it, his technical wizardry is manifest in all his paintings.
In schools we have the bureacratic nightmare that is the Curriculum for Excellence. Any suggestions by teachers that they have not had adeqaute training in this airy fairy nonsense, which includes "soft starts" up to the end of primary school and means that Scottish schools are returning to the dark ages of leaving certificates with national exams being marked by the schools themselves without external checks is a disciplinary matter.
If this is what governance is going to look like in an independent Scotland we have major, major problems.
A question for the whizz kids out there: -With RBS creating an internal ‘bad bank’ with the future intention of selling it off, has RBS split in two, to all intents and purpose, or is this mechanism fundamentally different?
I’m sure there are advantages involved, but to the high finance ignoramuses out there (me), it look more like a face saving exercise than anything else.
Your other points are broadly right, albeit not very generously phrased to a new (I think) poster.
And the fall in investment is partly due to not having a functioning traditional banking system any more because those same bankstas aren't interested in low-level investment. They're only interested in sucking every scrap of capital out of the country into the London casino banks and then using it for either mega-investment projects or gambling.
youtube.com/watch?v=zX54DIpacNE. They don't so he only sells 7.
Certainly the 7 canvasses he sells are worth more than $60
At the bottom of St Michael's Hill near the BRI, just before Tony Blair resigned, someone spray painted an image of Blair as Rupert the Bear with the caption last night in Chequers.
I should imagine this will involve getting what they can as soon as possible for these assets - lancing the boils so to speak.
http://www.anorak.co.uk/221931/in-pictures-2/banksys-london-art.html/attachment/4905769/
Given his New York 'The Banality of the Banality of Evil' sold for $610,000, I wonder how those who removed or destroyed his other works feel.....?
edit: point being it makes compromise candidates of whatever kind more likely to get nominated.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/01/why-i’ve-left-unite/
A former PPC writes why he has left them.
Personally I'd prefer Jowell for all sorts of reasons, but all the possible candidates have baggage, including her and Lammy. So has Boris of course and it didn't stop him.
Anyone who thinks Ed Miliband is nailed on to be next PM might care to take a look at the 3.25 Shadsy is offering on a Conservative candidate winning the mayoralty.
I liked this one, as much of their Acts turn out to be ape's bum fodder.
http://tinyurl.com/parliaapes
2. Not necessarily. Depends if it's tradeable which they often aren't.
3. Well well, well isn't someone just a chauvinist as well as rude? A mask has slipped Mr Tim. Shanki is Sharon.
(he was a bridge partner of Fleming's)