What do you think the Conservatives' long term message would be to the public after a no-deal Brexit. "Yes, we risked the country's stability for something we passionately believed in, but trust us now"?
No doubt you find that a compelling message but the overwhelming majority who aren't in the death cult will not. Bear in mind also that the death cult is disproportionately comprised of pensioners, so it has a diminishing audience too.
Unless you plan mass euthanasia or worse the proportions of pensioners are continuing to grow.
Different pensioners. It's a conveyor belt, but without the cuddly toy.
Twas always the case yet the proportions of votes for right-wing parties in that group have continued to grow.
It's easy to see why those who get wealthier as they age might become more attracted to the party of the property-owning classes.
It's less easy to see why those who get older would decide that an idea that they thought was batshit mental was in fact not batshit mental.
Experience?
The last couple of years have shown that all the airy generalisations that Leavers went in for before the referendum result were complete horse feathers. All that's happened is that Leavers have got steadily more deranged and extreme.
Now it may be that Remainers are innately superior in intellect and stability to Leavers, but I wouldn't base my predictions on it. People bend the facts to their opinions, not vice versa.
Name one airy generalisation that has categorically been shown to be complete horse feathers.
"We hold all the cards" "They need us more than we need them" "If we vote Leave, we can dictate the terms"
"If we No Deal, it will force the EU to the negotiating table to give us what we want." appears to be coming up quickly on the rails to take over as the next batshit mad one.
No deal then basically fold into whatever the EU wants from us. Irish sea border ? No problemo...
Varadkar is in real crisis as he must answer the question what he does when the EU put in place their border on the 13th April post no deal
In addition it may not be known here but he is in serious trouble with his fishermen
Kudos to him, he used his position to try to get to meet Kylie Minogue.
Not sure I understand your point Alastair
Furthermore, the IREXIT freedom party are growing and support the fishermen
Have you got any recent polling on the popularity of Irexit? Last time I saw the Irish were favouring staying in the EU by about 90% to 10%.
Big G has transposed the British/Scottish relationship with fishing wherein a tiny amount of the electorate & even tinier percentage of industrial output exerts a disproportionate influence on UK politics. I would be surprised if the same anomaly exists in Ireland.
Not really. There is an Irish specific fight going on between the Irish fishing industry and the Irish government who are taking the side of EU fishermen, inflaming anger in the 1.4 billion euros per annum industry
Aren't Irish fishermen also EU fishermen? What specific side is Varadkar taking?
I believe (as with the UK) that the EU is Ireland's main export market for seafood. What do Irish fishermen think should be done to protect that market?
I am not into the detail but the Irish Fisherman seem to be disadvantaged in their own waters
Bit like Scotland as London gave it away to help the south east
I think MPs now have a duty to vote for May's deal to avoid No Deal.
It's as simple as that.
Yep. If Letwin has thrown in the towel it's over
It has felt like "checkmate" for May and the Tories for a few days now.
But I think the reality is worse - it's checkmate for the whole UK.
It is dawning on me now that we're the proverbial boiling frog. We've just realised we need to leap out of the pan. But we don't now have the means to do so.
It's No Deal, and we're all fucked. There really is no "panic button" option to get us out of it, is there?
Unless the EU panics first and dives in to rescue us.
I have been preaching this for weeks and it is so obvious the ERG have played their cause well, but the Country is going to suffer big time unless TM WDA passes with a reasonable majority
I would not expect it to go great. But, if it went as Robert Smithson suggests, there would be a lot of people who would not suffer adverse consequences.
That's probably not enough, as the media will run on stuff that went wrong but could have been planned for and had some sympathetic victim, and the government will be hit with this from all kinds of media and every part of the political spectrum from Corbyn to Farage.
If it's mainly screwing untelegenic people then it may be survivable though.
Yes, if it's people from Goldman Sachs complaining, it will be very popular.
I have to say I was surprised that in this doomsday document to the pm about no deal, it was said food costs would rise by upto 10%. Much that is unwelcome and the poorest would definitely be at the sharp end of that, let's say it's actually 5-6%...I honestly doubt people would notice & certainly no enough for mass riots in Sainsbury's ala Venezuela.
The way it has been hyped up, a bit like the overdone cuts narrative, I think a lot of people are expecting hyperinflation and bread shortages.
Not advocating the benefits of No Deal here, but just as general rule I'm cautious of claims where impact statistics are (a) Quoted as "up to", (b) Not accompanied by a central estimate or range of most plausible estimates, (b) Calculated on the premise that the organisation that cared enough about the impact that it ordered the assessment to be written, nevertheless choosing to do nothing within its power to reduce that impact.
If we end up in a No Deal situation in which the government really does voluntarily impose enormous tariffs to drive up prices of food, household essentials and industrial inputs, then they'll have managed to turn something economically risky and self-destructive into something even more risky and self-destructive...
Given the size of the populations girths in UK then that would be a big bonus for health and save fortune for NHS
A plausible scenario is the HoC approving a "blind" long delay and then the EU insisting / dictating the terms of that delay (i.e. with a referendum), which we then presumably have to abide by.
Varadkar is in real crisis as he must answer the question what he does when the EU put in place their border on the 13th April post no deal
In addition it may not be known here but he is in serious trouble with his fishermen
Kudos to him, he used his position to try to get to meet Kylie Minogue.
Not sure I understand your point Alastair
Furthermore, the IREXIT freedom party are growing and support the fishermen
Have you got any recent polling on the popularity of Irexit? Last time I saw the Irish were favouring staying in the EU by about 90% to 10%.
Big G has transposed the British/Scottish relationship with fishing wherein a tiny amount of the electorate & even tinier percentage of industrial output exerts a disproportionate influence on UK politics. I would be surprised if the same anomaly exists in Ireland.
Not really. There is an Irish specific fight going on between the Irish fishing industry and the Irish government who are taking the side of EU fishermen, inflaming anger in the 1.4 billion euros per annum industry
Aren't Irish fishermen also EU fishermen? What specific side is Varadkar taking?
I believe (as with the UK) that the EU is Ireland's main export market for seafood. What do Irish fishermen think should be done to protect that market?
I am not into the detail but the Irish Fisherman seem to be disadvantaged in their own waters
Bit like Scotland as London gave it away to help the south east
I remember my late Father in law fighting tooth and nail against joining the EU
A plausible scenario is the HoC approving a "blind" long delay and then the EU insisting / dictating the terms of that delay (i.e. with a referendum), which we then presumably have to abide by.
The Legislature giving away both the powers of the Legislature and the Executive to a foreign power. A foreign power the people have voted to move away from. Cracking job guys!
By rights, there should be about 300 MPs resigning from the House in shame. They won't do the job they were elected to do. So depart the stage, please.
Am beginning to think passing TMs Deal may turn out to be the worst possible result for the government. All other scenarios, and blame can be deflected. In that one, you still have a fractured, resentful Party, with no one else to shoulder the responsibility. And no solution to the blatant fact, we don't know what kind of future relationship we want.
What do you think the Conservatives' long term message would be to the public after a no-deal Brexit. "Yes, we risked the country's stability for something we passionately believed in, but trust us now"?
No doubt you find that a compelling message but the overwhelming majority who aren't in the death cult will not. Bear in mind also that the death cult is disproportionately comprised of pensioners, so it has a diminishing audience too.
Unless you plan mass euthanasia or worse the proportions of pensioners are continuing to grow.
Different pensioners. It's a conveyor belt, but without the cuddly toy.
Twas always the case yet the proportions of votes for right-wing parties in that group have continued to grow.
It's easy to see why those who get wealthier as they age might become more attracted to the party of the property-owning classes.
It's less easy to see why those who get older would decide that an idea that they thought was batshit mental was in fact not batshit mental.
Experience?
The last couple of years have shown that all the airy generalisations that Leavers went in for before the referendum result were complete horse feathers. All that's happened is that Leavers have got steadily more deranged and extreme.
Now it may be that Remainers are innately superior in intellect and stability to Leavers, but I wouldn't base my predictions on it. People bend the facts to their opinions, not vice versa.
Name one airy generalisation that has categorically been shown to be complete horse feathers.
"We hold all the cards" "They need us more than we need them" "If we vote Leave, we can dictate the terms"
"If we No Deal, it will force the EU to the negotiating table to give us what we want." appears to be coming up quickly on the rails to take over as the next batshit mad one.
I would not expect it to go great. But, if it went as Robert Smithson suggests, there would be a lot of people who would not suffer adverse consequences.
That's probably not enough, as the media will run on stuff that went wrong but could have been planned for and had some sympathetic victim, and the government will be hit with this from all kinds of media and every part of the political spectrum from Corbyn to Farage.
If it's mainly screwing untelegenic people then it may be survivable though.
Yes, if it's people from Goldman Sachs complaining, it will be very popular.
I have to say I was surprised that in this doomsday document to the pm about no deal, it was said food costs would rise by upto 10%. Much that is unwelcome and the poorest would definitely be at the sharp end of that, let's say it's actually 5-6%...I honestly doubt people would notice & certainly no enough for mass riots in Sainsbury's ala Venezuela.
The way it has been hyped up, a bit like the overdone cuts narrative, I think a lot of people are expecting hyperinflation and bread shortages.
Not advocating the benefits of No Deal here, but just as general rule I'm cautious of claims where impact statistics are (a) Quoted as "up to", (b) Not accompanied by a central estimate or range of most plausible estimates, (b) Calculated on the premise that the organisation that cared enough about the impact that it ordered the assessment to be written, nevertheless choosing to do nothing within its power to reduce that impact.
If we end up in a No Deal situation in which the government really does voluntarily impose enormous tariffs to drive up prices of food, household essentials and industrial inputs, then they'll have managed to turn something economically risky and self-destructive into something even more risky and self-destructive...
Yes, I dont think No Deal would look like a zombie apocalypse, not least as we can often subtitute foodstuffs with others. Something like 8% of my departments treatment packs come from the EU, but if that is disrupted it mostly means cancellations and delays to treatment rather than fatalities. Things can be mitigated in the short term, but the long term degradation of the country would be more insidious and reversible.
Varadkar is in real crisis as he must answer the question what he does when the EU put in place their border on the 13th April post no deal
In addition it may not be known here but he is in serious trouble with his fishermen
Kudos to him, he used his position to try to get to meet Kylie Minogue.
Not sure I understand your point Alastair
Furthermore, the IREXIT freedom party are growing and support the fishermen
Have you got any recent polling on the popularity of Irexit? Last time I saw the Irish were favouring staying in the EU by about 90% to 10%.
Big G has transposed the British/Scottish relationship with fishing wherein a tiny amount of the electorate & even tinier percentage of industrial output exerts a disproportionate influence on UK politics. I would be surprised if the same anomaly exists in Ireland.
Not really. There is an Irish specific fight going on between the Irish fishing industry and the Irish government who are taking the side of EU fishermen, inflaming anger in the 1.4 billion euros per annum industry
Aren't Irish fishermen also EU fishermen? What specific side is Varadkar taking?
I believe (as with the UK) that the EU is Ireland's main export market for seafood. What do Irish fishermen think should be done to protect that market?
I am not into the detail but the Irish Fisherman seem to be disadvantaged in their own waters
Bit like Scotland as London gave it away to help the south east
Am beginning to think passing TMs Deal may turn out to be the worst possible result for the government. All other scenarios, and blame can be deflected. In that one, you still have a fractured, resentful Party, with no one else to shoulder the responsibility. And no solution to the blatant fact, we don't know what kind of future relationship we want.
Not least because of the imminent VoNC from the drumbashers.
it's the only route if you beleive that Brexit should happen.
That's simply not true. Both a Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 were available to vote for last night.
BUT THEY NEED THE WA...
Sigh, this is like brick wall.
They could still have been voted for. Conservative MPs en masse decided to play ducks and drakes instead.
But why should Tories vote for something they don't want?
Because it would be awfully nice for the rest of us if, like, we didn't have chaos and disorder because some mutton-headed imbecile with a blue rosette couldn't compromise.
What's Nadine Dorries got to do with it?
Nadine Dorries is one of the more sensible MP's on this issue.
It's the way you tell 'em
Compared to Mark Francois or David Lammy, she's the voice of reason (I accept, I'm not setting the bar high).
Holding up Mark Francois and David Lammy as equally ridiculous is the embodiment of white privilege.
?
I doubt that a black man as stupid as Francois could have become an MP.
Why? Intelligence isn't a predictor of becoming a MP. Being a MP isn't a predictor for being intelligent (arguably given recent events it is a predictor of stupidity). Lammy has recently used the "white saviour" trope to criticise a real person, but the "white saviour" trope applies to fictional narratives, not real people: it's like criticizing a real person for not having a narrative arc or a poor soundtrack.
You don't need intelligence to become a MP. You need to get nominated for the party most likely to win in your constituency, and for that you need to fit the profile that the selectors want.
Varadkar is in real crisis as he must answer the question what he does when the EU put in place their border on the 13th April post no deal
In addition it may not be known here but he is in serious trouble with his fishermen
Kudos to him, he used his position to try to get to meet Kylie Minogue.
Not sure I understand your point Alastair
Furthermore, the IREXIT freedom party are growing and support the fishermen
Have you got any recent polling on the popularity of Irexit? Last time I saw the Irish were favouring staying in the EU by about 90% to 10%.
Big G has transposed the British/Scottish relationship with fishing wherein a tiny amount of the electorate & even tinier percentage of industrial output exerts a disproportionate influence on UK politics. I would be surprised if the same anomaly exists in Ireland.
Not really. There is an Irish specific fight going on between the Irish fishing industry and the Irish government who are taking the side of EU fishermen, inflaming anger in the 1.4 billion euros per annum industry
Aren't Irish fishermen also EU fishermen? What specific side is Varadkar taking?
I believe (as with the UK) that the EU is Ireland's main export market for seafood. What do Irish fishermen think should be done to protect that market?
I am not into the detail but the Irish Fisherman seem to be disadvantaged in their own waters
Bit like Scotland as London gave it away to help the south east
I remember my late Father in law fighting tooth and nail against joining the EU
G, the EU did more for Scotland than London ever did, even with them siphoning off Scottish funds and giving away our fishing rights to get what they wanted for the south east. Would be in EU any day rather than UK. I am hoping it is No Deal and we can get out of it and back into EU.
Varadkar is in real crisis as he must answer the question what he does when the EU put in place their border on the 13th April post no deal
In addition it may not be known here but he is in serious trouble with his fishermen
Kudos to him, he used his position to try to get to meet Kylie Minogue.
Not sure I understand your point Alastair
Furthermore, the IREXIT freedom party are growing and support the fishermen
Have you got any recent polling on the popularity of Irexit? Last time I saw the Irish were favouring staying in the EU by about 90% to 10%.
Big G has transposed the British/Scottish relationship with fishing wherein a tiny amount of the electorate & even tinier percentage of industrial output exerts a disproportionate influence on UK politics. I would be surprised if the same anomaly exists in Ireland.
Not really. There is an Irish specific fight going on between the Irish fishing industry and the Irish government who are taking the side of EU fishermen, inflaming anger in the 1.4 billion euros per annum industry
Aren't Irish fishermen also EU fishermen? What specific side is Varadkar taking?
I believe (as with the UK) that the EU is Ireland's main export market for seafood. What do Irish fishermen think should be done to protect that market?
I am not into the detail but the Irish Fisherman seem to be disadvantaged in their own waters
Bit like Scotland as London gave it away to help the south east
I remember my late Father in law fighting tooth and nail against joining the EU
G, the EU did more for Scotland than London ever did, even with them siphoning off Scottish funds and giving away our fishing rights to get what they wanted for the south east. Would be in EU any day rather than UK. I am hoping it is No Deal and we can get out of it and back into EU.
It'll get through the Commons. Problem is the Lords, where there is no guillotine. It relies on the PM being willing to ask for the Legislation whilst the Bill is still in progress. Or the anti-Brexit majority in the Lords doing everything to counter the inevitable filibuster, sitting all night etc.
As I am off work today, I have a large number of errands to run for Mrs Stodge but they took me to East Ham High Street so I thought I'd see what the impact of the change to the FOBT maximum stake from £100 to £2 was having.
As might have been expected, shops which had been busy with men playing the FOBTs are now deserted. While Paddy Power were showing the "virtual" Grand National at mid-morning (won by the 8/1 joint favourite so it's not perhaps the bookies' race everyone imagines though with TIGER ROLL at an insane 7/2 maybe it is) there was me and an old boy watching it with the FOBTs deserted and it was almost the same at Hills, Ladbrokes, Betfred and the other Paddy Power as well as Jennings.
Previously, every FOBT would be occupied from 8am to 10pm with a crowd round it - I suspect the "good times" for the High Street bookies are over but racing and the exchequer will also suffer as the gamblers will go online. According to the RP, despite months of publicity, a lot of the players didn't know or realise (or, to be honest, understand) the rules had changed.
It'll get through the Commons. Problem is the Lords, where there is no guillotine. It relies on the PM being willing to ask for the Legislation whilst the Bill is still in progress. Or the anti-Brexit majority in the Lords doing everything to counter the inevitable filibuster, sitting all night etc.
The HOL can change the rules to stop a filibuster . That’s not the issue but refusing to revoke Article 50 as May might say isn’t really that controversial . I’m a Remainer and don’t suport revoke . Any decision to Remain has to go back to the people . MPs can’t just cancel it.
Wow. Theresa's really intends to play Russian roulette with the British economy. I suppose the hope must be that she can pin some blame for the ensuing carnage on Jezza's intransigence. That's high risk though.
We are all also presuming that Macron doesn't throw a wobbler and says arhh f##k it, let the Brits eat (jaffa) cakes.
No, that's not presuming anything. Macron has no say in a choice between No Deal and revoke. Either, of course, would mean a very unhappy and even more divided Britain.
We are all also presuming that Macron doesn't throw a wobbler and says arhh f##k it, let the Brits eat (jaffa) cakes.
No, that's not presuming anything. Macron has no say in a choice between No Deal and revoke. Either, of course, would mean a very unhappy and even more divided Britain.
Sorry yes you are right. I obviously thinking about pushing for this extension that Cooper/ Letwin etc are trying to do.
Comments
If it really does come down to a final, last minute deal or no-deal .... will Corbyn really whip for no-deal?
bestleast worst deal on offer.Some of us have been there for ages.
By rights, there should be about 300 MPs resigning from the House in shame. They won't do the job they were elected to do. So depart the stage, please.
And no solution to the blatant fact, we don't know what kind of future relationship we want.
I am pretty relaxed about No Deal personally.
You don't need intelligence to become a MP. You need to get nominated for the party most likely to win in your constituency, and for that you need to fit the profile that the selectors want.
Would be in EU any day rather than UK.
I am hoping it is No Deal and we can get out of it and back into EU.
Revoke will not get a majority IMO
Less than 6.1m support it
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1113037778407829505?s=20
Massively and completely off-topic !!!
As I am off work today, I have a large number of errands to run for Mrs Stodge but they took me to East Ham High Street so I thought I'd see what the impact of the change to the FOBT maximum stake from £100 to £2 was having.
As might have been expected, shops which had been busy with men playing the FOBTs are now deserted. While Paddy Power were showing the "virtual" Grand National at mid-morning (won by the 8/1 joint favourite so it's not perhaps the bookies' race everyone imagines though with TIGER ROLL at an insane 7/2 maybe it is) there was me and an old boy watching it with the FOBTs deserted and it was almost the same at Hills, Ladbrokes, Betfred and the other Paddy Power as well as Jennings.
Previously, every FOBT would be occupied from 8am to 10pm with a crowd round it - I suspect the "good times" for the High Street bookies are over but racing and the exchequer will also suffer as the gamblers will go online. According to the RP, despite months of publicity, a lot of the players didn't know or realise (or, to be honest, understand) the rules had changed.
As Tin Ears Deal is not passing
I don't know if there is a book open on it, but revocation in the next fortnight ought to be a pretty low price.
no longer sit with this party.
Either, of course, would mean a very unhappy and even more divided Britain.