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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure mounts on TMay with a divided cabinet and 11 days

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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912
    edited April 2019
    RoyalBlue said:

    Question for the PB brains trust:

    I understand that our European citizenship, and the consequent obligation to not discriminate against other nationalities for welfare purposes, only applies to EU nationals, not those of the EEA.

    Therefore, if we were to adopt Common Market 2.0, we would be able to restrict access to welfare benefits to U.K. nationals only.

    Is my understanding correct?

    Pedant alert: There is no such thing as EU citizenship. People are citizens of specific countries, and if that country is in the EU then the EU rules give them many EU-wide rights, such as the ight to move house and work in other EU countries. If I had EU citizenship since 1994 then Brexit would not be making my current life stressful.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    edited April 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    I am writing this from a train so obviously any outcome that results in the resignation of Chris Grayling is a good one.

    Given where you are I will post this

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1112596957049118721
    Ha ha thanks. Actually the train was on time today, and I even got to stick it to the man by sitting in a first class seat with a standard class ticket.
    You’re proud of being a thief?
    Thanks for that reaction, the thought of you spi compensation. In any case, first class is unenforceable in South East London, I doubt anyone in there had paid for it.
    :lol: Great response!

    Edit: Charles seems to be proud of being descended from theives, so maybe his question was meant to be positive?
    The thief who steals 3 kopeks gets hung. The thief who steals 50 kopeks gets praise... Russian proverb.

    Defrauding the reeking and corrupt mess that is privatised rail is a moral good. Bravo OnlyLivingBoy whether you are in New Cross or not.
    You've just triggered @JosiasJessop.

    Sitting in first class without a first class ticket is, meanwhile, fraud or theft or whatever. Fraud/theft is why barriers on the tube were introduced all those years ago. But as @OnlyLivingBoy notes, sticking it to the man is compensation enough for some.

    Or you could be pregnant and in recipient of the magic "this standard-class ticket holder may use First Class seating" letter which some train companies issue, though I grant you that OnlyLivingBoy's choice of PB monicker makes that a fairly unlikely outcome.
    Surely the sticking it to the man-ness is undermined slightly if you are invited to sit there by, er, the man (or one of his lackeys)?
    Many years ago a friend of mine in receipt of a full student grant (remember them) and with a place at one of London University's constituent Colleges lived at home in Southend and travelled up daily, using a first-class season ticket. In jeans and general scruff order he was incongruous in the FC compartment, but it gave him two hours reading time in relative comfort.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    To my mind this is the key point in that article:

    The EU expects no deal because it does not trust British politicians not to screw up. There is not much faith that “indicative votes” among MPs will produce a coherent way forward. “We don’t see the transmission mechanism that forces the executive to bend to parliament’s will,” said one EU official. “We cannot negotiate with a parliament.”

    That is why I think the risk of No Deal, irrespective of what parliament agrees on if anything this week, remains high.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Oh hope you have a nice time. :)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    RoyalBlue said:

    Question for the PB brains trust:

    I understand that our European citizenship, and the consequent obligation to not discriminate against other nationalities for welfare purposes, only applies to EU nationals, not those of the EEA.

    Therefore, if we were to adopt Common Market 2.0, we would be able to restrict access to welfare benefits to U.K. nationals only.

    Is my understanding correct?

    We always had that opportunity but as it had to apply to all UK including children the Tories preferred to keep the cash for themselves and their chums.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited April 2019

    To my mind this is the key point in that article:

    The EU expects no deal because it does not trust British politicians not to screw up. There is not much faith that “indicative votes” among MPs will produce a coherent way forward. “We don’t see the transmission mechanism that forces the executive to bend to parliament’s will,” said one EU official. “We cannot negotiate with a parliament.”

    That is why I think the risk of No Deal, irrespective of what parliament agrees on if anything this week, remains high.
    So basically we're about to see another spectacular screw up from Letwin? :D
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361
    TOPPING said:

    And yes we still get forecasts or if only they woulds of up to 40 Lab MPs voting for any of the MVs.

    Mmm. Is it a game? Not sure.

    I used to think Labour would be 'unofficially' happy if the WA squeaked through - get a GE out of the angst that would follow from that.

    But I now think that what is better (for them) is to keep opposing and try to get the GE from the impasse.

    Having said that, I think they will fail. As you and I agreed so long ago, this WA is passing because it's the only way to leave the EU and we are surely to goodness leaving the EU.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    Radio silence so far today from the key players. I expect a storm later.

    https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1112665507830923265?s=21
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Enjoy; you'll probably be OK if you travel by surface; not quite so confident about air.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    :smiley::smiley: how very true and exceedingly funny.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway off topic, I do hope that just as has been done with the Sackler wealth, there will be protests against and a refusal to accept the money of Brunei, which has introduced this disgusting law - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/brunei-to-defy-protests-and-punish-gay-sex-with-stoning-8kfntnt8c.

    SOAS students should be particularly outraged. Is there not a Brunei gallery there?

    Indeed, isn’t Penny Mordaunt meant to be the Equalities Minister? Perhaps she could get off her arse and do something about those Parkfield protests and this as well?

    Didn't SOAS take money from Saif Gadaffit? If so, I don't think they'll be concerned.
    That was the LSE. Two of its trustees were Howard Davies, ex-chair of the FSA and one Shami Chakrabati. You must remember her - always rabbiting on about civil liberties which, strangely, became less of a concern when a dictator was handing out money to the institution of which she was a trustee.
    I think that Malcolmg is correct, and that too many people make too much money from people from people like the Sultan of Brunei to avoid kissing butt.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789

    To my mind this is the key point in that article:

    The EU expects no deal because it does not trust British politicians not to screw up. There is not much faith that “indicative votes” among MPs will produce a coherent way forward. “We don’t see the transmission mechanism that forces the executive to bend to parliament’s will,” said one EU official. “We cannot negotiate with a parliament.”

    That is why I think the risk of No Deal, irrespective of what parliament agrees on if anything this week, remains high.
    There is a transmission mechanism, a VONC then, if it passes a GE - which may, (or more likely) may not resolve the matter - unfortunately that cannot happen in 11 days....
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Which part you going to Malc? We'd booked a holiday in Berlin last week, partially in the expectation that things might get complicated after the 29th, should have had more faith in Tessy's can kicking.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Glenn, the One Nation sounds like it's the EU.

    Backing a customs union is daft. Unless you also want to remain.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    Tories need to consider sending in Corbyn as nightwatchman. Abstain on a Corbyn confidence vote after VONC in government, let him screw up Brexit then VONC and election. Simples.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    So this is the specific problem with everything except WA+Referendum:

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1112623114897231872
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway off topic, I do hope that just as has been done with the Sackler wealth, there will be protests against and a refusal to accept the money of Brunei, which has introduced this disgusting law - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/brunei-to-defy-protests-and-punish-gay-sex-with-stoning-8kfntnt8c.

    SOAS students should be particularly outraged. Is there not a Brunei gallery there?

    Indeed, isn’t Penny Mordaunt meant to be the Equalities Minister? Perhaps she could get off her arse and do something about those Parkfield protests and this as well?

    Didn't SOAS take money from Saif Gadaffit? If so, I don't think they'll be concerned.
    That was the LSE. Two of its trustees were Howard Davies, ex-chair of the FSA and one Shami Chakrabati. You must remember her - always rabbiting on about civil liberties which, strangely, became less of a concern when a dictator was handing out money to the institution of which she was a trustee.
    I think that Malcolmg is correct, and that too many people make too much money from people from people like the Sultan of Brunei to avoid kissing butt.
    Tonight we get to see how Britain is complicit in the Yemen war, for cash.

    https://twitter.com/Fintan86914806/status/1112596114107256833?s=19
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    Mr. Glenn, the One Nation sounds like it's the EU.

    Backing a customs union is daft. Unless you also want to remain.

    You don’t know your history do you.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Which part you going to Malc? We'd booked a holiday in Berlin last week, partially in the expectation that things might get complicated after the 29th, should have had more faith in Tessy's can kicking.
    TUD, going to Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Key was to be in proximity of Munster Tank museum ( did not stay there as limited accommodation choice ). Will be doing all the pied piper stuff and there is a nice small museum with JU52 nearby as well. Taking oldest grandson who is tank fanatic.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    ps they may also try to fuck you up as they leave, but their powers are much diminished in this department.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    With Theresa May's deal losing not so bad last time, I think Commons Market 2.0 needs an absolute majority to be taken seriously today. SNP and Labour support means only a small number of Tories need to go for it for it to be a possibility. TIG and LD votes also crucial.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Eagles, I know that nobody advocated remaining in the customs union if we voted to leave until we actually voted to leave.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033

    Mr. Ace, could you elaborate, as the prospect of Medvedev, formerly, of course, and formally Russian president during Putin's ghost term, being arrested seems very significant?

    He's not locked up yet but it is very significant that he could not protect his boy Abyzov. The siloveki have never forgiven Medvedev for the fall of Gaddafi which is one of the reasons they went all in on Assad - to demonstrate to their gimps running third world shitholes that mat' rossiya can reward their allegiance with protection. Putin thinks Medvedev is insufficiently nationalist and wants to bring Navalny back in from the cold to replace him as PM.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Funny how the same posters here keep alternating between saying the ERG are screwing up by not backing the deal (even though most have now) and that there is a real risk of no deal. Both surely aren't right.

    I came into this process wanting a good deal (came into last process wanting to remain with a good deal) but since no good deal is on offer we should take no deal and manage from there.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    edited April 2019
    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:





    You might say that the Parkfield protests are a perfect example of that being true, and I wouldn't disagree if you did. But the law of the land also says that parents have the absolute right to home educate their children, and one of the main arguments being made in Parkfield is that if the schools persist in teaching in a way that they think runs contrary to their beliefs then they will effectively have no choice but to take their children out of state run education. Which is a situation with a whole bunch of future negative consequences.

    You're probably right that she's being a coward. But it's a no-win situation.
    What happens next? Parents to decide whether a gay teacher can be at the school at all? Parents deciding to withdraw their children from lessons in the core curriculum eg history or music or science. Well we have these already.

    Ultimately, we have to face down any group which thinks it has the right to determine what laws it will obey and which it won’t. We have laws which make it clear that homosexuality is legal, gay marriage is legal, discrimination against gays is unlawful and we need to enforce these laws. We are not stopping Muslim parents from teaching their beliefs. We are stopping them teaching things which are wrong ie that homosexuality is a lifestyle which can be chosen. And we are standing up for those Muslim children who are themselves gay.

    My understanding is that local authorities have a duty to ensure that home schooling is adequate for the child. If parents take their children out of school because they don’t want them taught about the existence of homosexuality then I would question whether the education they are getting at home is adequate. And take the necessary steps to ensure that the childrens’ education is not harmed in this way.

    I am aware that this sounds tough and brutal. But the sovereign’s writ needs to run everywhere in the country. We have seen what happens when this does not happen - girls being taken out of school for marriage, abuse, honour killings; books being objected to, people being killed for what they have written. If we don’t stamp down on this sort of nonsense now, what will happen next will be very much worse. And it won’t just come from religious parents. It could well come from others saying that they don’t want their children to be taught about Islam or have Muslim teachers in school. How do we counter that if we give in to these parents?

    Being taught PHSE in schools does not stop parents instilling their own values at home.
    That is the point which needs to be reiterated.

    If Mordaunt does not want to do her job, you may as well abolish the post. Of course, if we had a strong PM they ought to be taking the lead on this.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Enjoy; you'll probably be OK if you travel by surface; not quite so confident about air.
    OKC , I am driving and taking ferry South Shields to Ijmuiden. So get a wee cruise as well.
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    Mr. Eagles, I know that nobody advocated remaining in the customs union if we voted to leave until we actually voted to leave.

    Nobody advocated us leaving with No Deal during the campaign.

    I believe it was dismissed as Project Fear.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Funny how the same posters here keep alternating between saying the ERG are screwing up by not backing the deal (even though most have now) and that there is a real risk of no deal. Both surely aren't right
    ...

    Both are right. There is a risk either of crashing out with No Deal, or of Brexit being cancelled or heavily watered down.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361
    edited April 2019
    IanB2 said:

    The ERG know the tide is going out on Brexit and want the dislocation of crashing out as insurance against any future change of direction. For them being sensible and taking it slowly risks their extreme vision never coming to pass

    Truth in this, I feel.

    Otherwise, why not pass the WA, choose a new sympatico leader, and fight a GE offering max divergence and the commitment to if necessary walk away from the WA?

    See if that can beat a 'marxist' offering quasi Remain. Should be confident surely.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016

    Tories need to consider sending in Corbyn as nightwatchman. Abstain on a Corbyn confidence vote after VONC in government, let him screw up Brexit then VONC and election. Simples.

    That was the cunning wheeze in 1905. There wasn't another Tory PM for 17 years.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1112623118684733440?s=19

    I think incidentally this oft-repeated claim is nonsense. The backstop is a future trade arrangement so why is that not illegal? It's all that is stopping the WA from being passed.

    If the EU had stuck to permanent future relations being negotiated next phase then we would be out already.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Which part you going to Malc? We'd booked a holiday in Berlin last week, partially in the expectation that things might get complicated after the 29th, should have had more faith in Tessy's can kicking.
    TUD, going to Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Key was to be in proximity of Munster Tank museum ( did not stay there as limited accommodation choice ). Will be doing all the pied piper stuff and there is a nice small museum with JU52 nearby as well. Taking oldest grandson who is tank fanatic.
    Cool. I went to the Gatow air museum the time before last, good if you like your aircraft in sweaty 'original' condition. Mostly Cold War stuff though they had older exhibits in the main hangar.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Queens Park Rangers have sacked manager Steve McClaren following a run of one win in 15 Championship games.
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    Queens Park Rangers have sacked manager Steve McClaren following a run of one win in 15 Championship games.

    I hope he gets a job in the Netherlands.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    So this is the specific problem with everything except WA+Referendum:

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1112623114897231872

    Yes, that's one of the most dishonest things about the Common Market 2.0 proposal. It will fall apart once they try to negotiate it, so its real purpose is to try to get enough votes for the withdrawal agreement.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798

    To my mind this is the key point in that article:

    The EU expects no deal because it does not trust British politicians not to screw up. There is not much faith that “indicative votes” among MPs will produce a coherent way forward. “We don’t see the transmission mechanism that forces the executive to bend to parliament’s will,” said one EU official. “We cannot negotiate with a parliament.”

    That is why I think the risk of No Deal, irrespective of what parliament agrees on if anything this week, remains high.
    Indicative votes are sensible and should have taken place at the start, or at least following the last last election. But they won't go anywhere if the government refuses to cooperate.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have given up trying to understand the backstop and why some MPs are opposed to it. I doubt it matters, to be honest. Some of the loonier ERG’ers are just opposed to any compromise at all with the EU. If it weren’t the backstop it would be something else.

    The mistake Cameron - and now May - have made is trying to appease these people. They should have been faced down. If they are not - even at this late stage - they will continue to ruin this country.

    Anyway, I have a cold to nurse, somewhat irritatingly in this lovely spring weather.

    It is poetic justice , despite the bribes, that Ireland is haunting them given they caused all the Irish woes originally and put these types in power.
    "They"? As I am of 50% Irish ancestry I can tell you that quite a lot of Irelands woes were made worse by British folk of very Scottish origin. Perhaps you wish to conveniently forget it was British soldiers from your country that were sent to suppress the Irish Republican rebellion in 1798, and then came back to Scotland and set up their own Orange order. Actually I suspect you never knew. Doesn't fit with your anti-English narrative really does it?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Funny how the same posters here keep alternating between saying the ERG are screwing up by not backing the deal (even though most have now) and that there is a real risk of no deal. Both surely aren't right
    ...

    Both are right. There is a risk either of crashing out with No Deal, or of Brexit being cancelled or heavily watered down.
    But the WA is being blocked by those who would prefer one of "crashing out with No Deal, or of Brexit being cancelled or heavily watered down." Its a high risk strategy but it's not a screw up if their preference is an option.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dixiedean said:

    Tories need to consider sending in Corbyn as nightwatchman. Abstain on a Corbyn confidence vote after VONC in government, let him screw up Brexit then VONC and election. Simples.

    That was the cunning wheeze in 1905. There wasn't another Tory PM for 17 years.
    If they dont there wint be one for 37 years perhaps!
    Ok, it's a bit tongue in cheek but they need to wargame ways they can spread the sting thats coming. Be that taking the hit now in s GE, offering national government to the Watson scooby wing of labour or some other method.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FF43 said:

    To my mind this is the key point in that article:

    The EU expects no deal because it does not trust British politicians not to screw up. There is not much faith that “indicative votes” among MPs will produce a coherent way forward. “We don’t see the transmission mechanism that forces the executive to bend to parliament’s will,” said one EU official. “We cannot negotiate with a parliament.”

    That is why I think the risk of No Deal, irrespective of what parliament agrees on if anything this week, remains high.
    Indicative votes are sensible and should have taken place at the start, or at least following the last last election. But they won't go anywhere if the government refuses to cooperate.
    They also won't go anywhere while the opposition treats them as a cynical exercise in destabilising the country. So I'm not hopeful.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    What is Theresa May's end-game strategy? To run down the clock, hope Parliament blinks but if not, what then? What is her Plan Z -- crash out or revoke?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Miss Cyclefree, aye. I do actually have some sympathy with the argument that children of a certain age shouldn't be taught anything at all about relationships, but if something should be taught for non-Muslims then it should be taught for Muslims too.

    Mr. Eagles, true, although May's rank incompetence and the EU's vile demands weren't in play then. Nevertheless, that's why I think another referendum a far more reasonable path than the delinquent tomfoolery of leaving in name only, leaving us subject to the EU in many areas (even free movement, which doesn't bother me but which was undeniable a significant aspect of the campaign) without even the small influence we currently have.

    Also, Project Fear got a lot wrong. There was no immediate recession, no punishment Budget, no falling into the sea. It's only correct post-vote prediction was the exchange rate undergoing a significant weakening.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Well that doesn't sound terribly good for Theresa... :D
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway off topic, I do hope that just as has been done with the Sackler wealth, there will be protests against and a refusal to accept the money of Brunei, which has introduced this disgusting law - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/brunei-to-defy-protests-and-punish-gay-sex-with-stoning-8kfntnt8c.

    SOAS students should be particularly outraged. Is there not a Brunei gallery there?

    Indeed, isn’t Penny Mordaunt meant to be the Equalities Minister? Perhaps she could get off her arse and do something about those Parkfield protests and this as well?

    Didn't SOAS take money from Saif Gadaffit? If so, I don't think they'll be concerned.
    That was the LSE. Two of its trustees were Howard Davies, ex-chair of the FSA and one Shami Chakrabati. You must remember her - always rabbiting on about civil liberties which, strangely, became less of a concern when a dictator was handing out money to the institution of which she was a trustee.
    I think that Malcolmg is correct, and that too many people make too much money from people from people like the Sultan of Brunei to avoid kissing butt.
    I know. Depressing isn’t it. We’ll junk our values for money and if bigots threaten violence we’ll give in.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Enjoy; you'll probably be OK if you travel by surface; not quite so confident about air.
    OKC , I am driving and taking ferry South Shields to Ijmuiden. So get a wee cruise as well.
    I'd check and make that North Shields if I were you...lovely food on that boat.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,301


    The package (WA plus meaningless PD) cannot be called the May Deal or the Corbyn Deal, that is bad PR, so let's call it Clarke or Boles.
    Can't we have some sort of composite name a la JLo? My vote is The Bol-arke Compromise.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Funny how the same posters here keep alternating between saying the ERG are screwing up by not backing the deal (even though most have now) and that there is a real risk of no deal. Both surely aren't right
    ...

    Both are right. There is a risk either of crashing out with No Deal, or of Brexit being cancelled or heavily watered down.
    But the WA is being blocked by those who would prefer one of "crashing out with No Deal, or of Brexit being cancelled or heavily watered down." Its a high risk strategy but it's not a screw up if their preference is an option.
    Actually it's a screw up either way, as we will find out if (God forbid, although He doesn't seem to be on the case) we do crash out.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    Time to board the change UK bus, or at very least the moderates should consider ditching the extremes. It's all going go implode anyway, take the initiative

    Make Tory and Labour yesterdays story
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yes we still get forecasts or if only they woulds of up to 40 Lab MPs voting for any of the MVs.

    Mmm. Is it a game? Not sure.

    I used to think Labour would be 'unofficially' happy if the WA squeaked through - get a GE out of the angst that would follow from that.

    But I now think that what is better (for them) is to keep opposing and try to get the GE from the impasse.

    Having said that, I think they will fail. As you and I agreed so long ago, this WA is passing because it's the only way to leave the EU and we are surely to goodness leaving the EU.
    Well you would have effing well thought so. What a tragedy for the political process and all the stuff not done while people are wasting time coming round to the only way to leave.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983

    dixiedean said:

    Tories need to consider sending in Corbyn as nightwatchman. Abstain on a Corbyn confidence vote after VONC in government, let him screw up Brexit then VONC and election. Simples.

    That was the cunning wheeze in 1905. There wasn't another Tory PM for 17 years.
    If they dont there wint be one for 37 years perhaps!
    Ok, it's a bit tongue in cheek but they need to wargame ways they can spread the sting thats coming. Be that taking the hit now in s GE, offering national government to the Watson scooby wing of labour or some other method.
    It only took the Conservatives four years before they were the largest party. It's why all the talk about people being out of power for a generation is usually wrong - so long as there is a right wing and a left wing, parties bounce back pretty quickly (or if they collapse, they get replaced by another party from their wing).
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Which part you going to Malc? We'd booked a holiday in Berlin last week, partially in the expectation that things might get complicated after the 29th, should have had more faith in Tessy's can kicking.
    TUD, going to Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Key was to be in proximity of Munster Tank museum ( did not stay there as limited accommodation choice ). Will be doing all the pied piper stuff and there is a nice small museum with JU52 nearby as well. Taking oldest grandson who is tank fanatic.
    Cool. I went to the Gatow air museum the time before last, good if you like your aircraft in sweaty 'original' condition. Mostly Cold War stuff though they had older exhibits in the main hangar.
    Have plan to go there, he also wants to go to the tank museum in Moscow which is supposed to be the best. Mind you he has a list in US and elsewhere also.
    Will definitely do Gatow at some point in near future.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791

    Mr. Glenn, the One Nation sounds like it's the EU.

    Backing a customs union is daft. Unless you also want to remain.

    Mr Dancer, I don't normally have to say your posts are nonsense, though I have to for all three of your affirmations there. Most MPs who are part of this group are looking for damage limitation. How much of the damage done to Britain by the madness known as Brexit has been worth it so far do you reckon? It looks as though it will be topped off by Corbyn becoming PM. I'd love to hear what anyone has benefitted from all this, other than Corbyn, and of course, Vladimir Putin.
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    eristdoof said:


    In countries with PR, what sort of Coalitions are more common: the 2010-2015 sort, or the 2017-present sort?

    Looking around, seems like the former. However, our adversarial/majoritarian system is not set up to sustain such; it promotes rather the sort of chaos we have now when no false majority can be created.

    Neither, but closer to the 2010 sort. Minority govenments are quite rare.

    Of course every country is different, but a typical approach is to stat with talks about talks and come to a quick agreement whether a coalition between these parties is at all possible. The two or 3 parties then agree, that the will to form a coalition is there (usually within a few days). It was at this point that Nick Clegg and David Cameron claimed they had a coalition agreeement in the famous Rose Garden Conference. In other countries this is when the serious negotiations start. A detailed 4 or 5 year plan is thrashed out, published and maybe sent to the party members to vote on. This stage often takes months, and the country carries on perfectly normally in the mean time. Once agree then the government timetable is fixed for the duration. If something important comes up in the middle of the electoral term, that is not covered in the coalition agreement, then all parties will need to agree on the new direction.

    A case study using Germany following the 2017 election. Merkel's CDU/CSU block had the most votes and could form a coalition with either SPD (Big coalition) or FDP(Business Liberals) + Greens (Jamaica Coalition). CDU would never form a coalition with die Linke (Left) or AFD (the "wer'e not racist but ..." party). The first round of talks was for CDU+FDP+Greens but it quickly became clear that the policies of the FDP were incompatible with the Greens and a serious coalition plan was never discussed. This forced the SPD to take part in a Big Coalition, even though the SPD was wary of this because they didn't come out well from the last two Big Coalitions. Because the SPD negotiated hard plus other issues within the CDU/CSU faction meant that it took about 6 months to finalise to coalition ageement

    This approach to coalition building does lead to strong governments (contrary to what many claim) but at the cost of speed and adaptability.

    OK - so they are strong and stable then. (Although I think your last sentence is an oxymoron - since speed and adaptability may be important to handle unforseen events).
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    The associations will say that they are deselecting people who repeatedly vote against the government.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,090
    dixiedean said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Enjoy; you'll probably be OK if you travel by surface; not quite so confident about air.
    OKC , I am driving and taking ferry South Shields to Ijmuiden. So get a wee cruise as well.
    I'd check and make that North Shields if I were you...lovely food on that boat.
    Oops mixing up my Shields, yes I have splashed out this time and taken top cabins with free refreshments and booked the nice restaurant, should be excellent.
    First time I went years ago I let them just pick standard cabin for me and ended up on top of the engines , what a nightmare, never make that mistake again. Certainly nice ships.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Foremain, I have said before that I hesitated quite a lot over voting to Leave because I was concerned by the short term economic damage (which, immediately post-referendum, was far less than I'd feared).

    I was similarly clear that I feel the benefits economically to be for the longer term, and the good of self-governance, and hopefully to actually get some people up to the job, to come in sooner.

    As an aside, in the 14th century the younger brother of Robert Bruce (think he was called Edward) invaded Ireland. He so appalled both the Irish and the English that there was an Anglo-Irish alliance to defeat him.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    Miss Cyclefree, aye. I do actually have some sympathy with the argument that children of a certain age shouldn't be taught anything at all about relationships, but if something should be taught for non-Muslims then it should be taught for Muslims too.

    Mr. Eagles, true, although May's rank incompetence and the EU's vile demands weren't in play then. Nevertheless, that's why I think another referendum a far more reasonable path than the delinquent tomfoolery of leaving in name only, leaving us subject to the EU in many areas (even free movement, which doesn't bother me but which was undeniable a significant aspect of the campaign) without even the small influence we currently have.

    Also, Project Fear got a lot wrong. There was no immediate recession, no punishment Budget, no falling into the sea. It's only correct post-vote prediction was the exchange rate undergoing a significant weakening.

    I take the opposite view. The younger they are taught the less likely they are to learn to treat those who are different as horrible. There will be children at school with 2 mummies or daddies and a six or seven year old can be bullied. They may not need to know the mechanics just yet but understanding that there are all sorts of different families, through stories, is a sensible and gentle way of introducing them to the idea that life is not just the same as it is at home. Plus children can know very early on that they are gay, well before secondary school. My own son was raising the issue at primary school and was facing bullying about it. (The school was very good and handled the issue well.) So thinking that you avoid the problems that this sort of teaching is designed to address by leaving it until they’re 16 is a nonsense. By then it can be too late.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033


    Cool. I went to the Gatow air museum the time before last, good if you like your aircraft in sweaty 'original' condition. Mostly Cold War stuff though they had older exhibits in the main hangar.

    The USAF Museum at Wright-Patterson AFB is the aircraft museum sans pareil. Just don't drive in the wrong gate unless you want an M4 stuck in your face by a 19 year old with poor trigger discipline. (Voice of experience)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Miss Cyclefree, that's a legitimate view. The age is a fair question to raise, but not differentiating teaching based on religion of the parents. One might as well stop teaching the Big Bang to Creationists.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    Central HQ could stop this, if they act now to stop UKIP (and worse) activists joining.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Well I am going to sit in the sun now. Perhaps the Vitamin C will help with my cold.

    I will check in later to see if the country has gone to hell in a handbasket yet or if even that can has been kicked down the road.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway off topic, I do hope that just as has been done with the Sackler wealth, there will be protests against and a refusal to accept the money of Brunei, which has introduced this disgusting law - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/brunei-to-defy-protests-and-punish-gay-sex-with-stoning-8kfntnt8c.

    SOAS students should be particularly outraged. Is there not a Brunei gallery there?

    Indeed, isn’t Penny Mordaunt meant to be the Equalities Minister? Perhaps she could get off her arse and do something about those Parkfield protests and this as well?

    Didn't SOAS take money from Saif Gadaffit? If so, I don't think they'll be concerned.
    That was the LSE. Two of its trustees were Howard Davies, ex-chair of the FSA and one Shami Chakrabati. You must remember her - always rabbiting on about civil liberties which, strangely, became less of a concern when a dictator was handing out money to the institution of which she was a trustee.
    I think that Malcolmg is correct, and that too many people make too much money from people from people like the Sultan of Brunei to avoid kissing butt.
    Tonight we get to see how Britain is complicit in the Yemen war, for cash.

    https://twitter.com/Fintan86914806/status/1112596114107256833?s=19
    What's hidden about it? Johnny Mercer talked about it on tv.
    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/tory-mp-johnny-mercer-calls-2146580
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,361
    edited April 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    So we're saying that essentially... we have a *labelling* problem ;)

    :-)

    Precisely. It is of the utmost importance that whatever 'deal' is passed does not bear the name of May or Corbyn. What is actually in the deal is a second order issue. And I suppose I shouldn't be snarky and superior about this because it makes a sort of sense. The PD is meaningless until we have a GE to provide a mandate for Phase 2, therefore the question is really what to call the WA.

    Can't call it May - she's going.
    Can't call it Corbyn - if you do that, he has to be PM.
    But Boles or Clarke? - yes, worth a try.

    Course, we know what the likes of Steve Baker call the WA. It's a dungeon with whips and chains!
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Which part you going to Malc? We'd booked a holiday in Berlin last week, partially in the expectation that things might get complicated after the 29th, should have had more faith in Tessy's can kicking.
    TUD, going to Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Key was to be in proximity of Munster Tank museum ( did not stay there as limited accommodation choice ). Will be doing all the pied piper stuff and there is a nice small museum with JU52 nearby as well. Taking oldest grandson who is tank fanatic.
    Cool. I went to the Gatow air museum the time before last, good if you like your aircraft in sweaty 'original' condition. Mostly Cold War stuff though they had older exhibits in the main hangar.
    Have plan to go there, he also wants to go to the tank museum in Moscow which is supposed to be the best. Mind you he has a list in US and elsewhere also.
    Will definitely do Gatow at some point in near future.
    Russian military museums are good because, for the price of a surprisingly affordable bribe, you can dismantle the exhibits for souvenirs.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    Cyclefree said:

    Well I am going to sit in the sun now. Perhaps the Vitamin C will help with my cold.

    I will check in later to see if the country has gone to hell in a handbasket yet or if even that can has been kicked down the road.

    Vitamin D. If you want Vitamin C eat an orange!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281
    Dura_Ace said:


    Cool. I went to the Gatow air museum the time before last, good if you like your aircraft in sweaty 'original' condition. Mostly Cold War stuff though they had older exhibits in the main hangar.

    The USAF Museum at Wright-Patterson AFB is the aircraft museum sans pareil. Just don't drive in the wrong gate unless you want an M4 stuck in your face by a 19 year old with poor trigger discipline. (Voice of experience)
    I think Gatow is run by the Bundeswehr though the single guard seemed pretty chilled.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    edited April 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Well I am going to sit in the sun now. Perhaps the Vitamin C will help with my cold.

    I will check in later to see if the country has gone to hell in a handbasket yet or if even that can has been kicked down the road.

    Hope you feel better soon. Over here in Essex the sun is bright but the wind is chill.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    The associations will say that they are deselecting people who repeatedly vote against the government.
    Though I have no particular knowledge of Beaconsfield, I don't think it's even that. Rebels have long been tolerated (and frequently encouraged!) by all Associations, and other Remain Tories like Bob Neill have been fine at their AGMs. What seems to have really rankled is that Grieve said one thing at election time and did another thereafter.

    "What is clear to me, however, is that the decision of the electorate in the Referendum must be respected and that I should support a reasoned process to give effect to it."

    https://www.dominicgrieve.org.uk/news/dominic-grieves-election-message-constituents

    The party must of course be careful with entryism but Leave.EU don't have anywhere near the numbers they claim.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,678
    A tax question: Where a company spins off a division and issues new shares in the new company to the existing shareholders pro rata I am being told this is being treated as a dividend. Is this correct? Seems odd to me. I don't understand why there should be any tax liability and certainly not an income one as this is a capital transaction. Instead of being an investor in one large company I am now going to be an investor in 2 slightly smaller companies. I haven't sold any shares nor received an income.

    Advice?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,829
    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, aye. I do actually have some sympathy with the argument that children of a certain age shouldn't be taught anything at all about relationships, but if something should be taught for non-Muslims then it should be taught for Muslims too.

    I take the opposite view. The younger they are taught the less likely they are to learn to treat those who are different as horrible. There will be children at school with 2 mummies or daddies and a six or seven year old can be bullied. They may not need to know the mechanics just yet but understanding that there are all sorts of different families, through stories, is a sensible and gentle way of introducing them to the idea that life is not just the same as it is at home. Plus children can know very early on that they are gay, well before secondary school. My own son was raising the issue at primary school and was facing bullying about it. (The school was very good and handled the issue well.) So thinking that you avoid the problems that this sort of teaching is designed to address by leaving it until they’re 16 is a nonsense. By then it can be too late.
    Agree entirely.
    The idea that children of any age "shouldn't be taught anything about relationships" is absurd. And suggests a preoccupation with sex rather than relationships.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    Central HQ could stop this, if they act now to stop UKIP (and worse) activists joining.
    A lot of Tories left to join UKIP when Cameron was in charge. If they’ve learnt the error of their ways, your position is they shouldn’t be allowed in but converts from any other party - Labour, LibDem, etc - should be. What is the logic for that ?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983

    Sean_F said:

    The associations will say that they are deselecting people who repeatedly vote against the government.
    Though I have no particular knowledge of Beaconsfield, I don't think it's even that. Rebels have long been tolerated (and frequently encouraged!) by all Associations, and other Remain Tories like Bob Neill have been fine at their AGMs. What seems to have really rankled is that Grieve said one thing at election time and did another thereafter.

    "What is clear to me, however, is that the decision of the electorate in the Referendum must be respected and that I should support a reasoned process to give effect to it."

    https://www.dominicgrieve.org.uk/news/dominic-grieves-election-message-constituents

    The party must of course be careful with entryism but Leave.EU don't have anywhere near the numbers they claim.
    Kenneth Clarke gets no stick from his association, too. People know where they stand with him.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Cyclefree said:



    [snipped for length]

    I am aware that this sounds tough and brutal. But the sovereign’s writ needs to run everywhere in the country. We have seen what happens when this does not happen - girls being taken out of school for marriage, abuse, honour killings; books being objected to, people being killed for what they have written. If we don’t stamp down on this sort of nonsense now, what will happen next will be very much worse. And it won’t just come from religious parents. It could well come from others saying that they don’t want their children to be taught about Islam or have Muslim teachers in school. How do we counter that if we give in to these parents?

    Being taught PHSE in schools does not stop parents instilling their own values at home.
    That is the point which needs to be reiterated.

    If Mordaunt does not want to do her job, you may as well abolish the post. Of course, if we had a strong PM they ought to be taking the lead on this.

    This is a slightly weird argument in that I basically agree with at least 90% of what you're saying. The point I'm trying to make is that, as a society, we've got ourselves in a total mess over how to deal with the fact that our stated goal of tolerance to everyone requires us to do things that look "intolerant" to various groups. That contradiction needs resolving, and fast.

    The problem in the short term is that it's an area the Tories can't touch with a bargepole, because Labour will weaponise whatever they do or say and paint it as Islamophobia. Any intervention is likely to not only make the situation worse, but also damage the party brand. I don't see why Mordaunt should harm her career on a point of principle unless she could actually do some good, and I'm absolutely certain that in this situation, she can't. Note that the Labour front bench have also been absolutely deafening in their response.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Cyclefree said:

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway off topic, I do hope that just as has been done with the Sackler wealth, there will be protests against and a refusal to accept the money of Brunei, which has introduced this disgusting law - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/brunei-to-defy-protests-and-punish-gay-sex-with-stoning-8kfntnt8c.

    SOAS students should be particularly outraged. Is there not a Brunei gallery there?

    Indeed, isn’t Penny Mordaunt meant to be the Equalities Minister? Perhaps she could get off her arse and do something about those Parkfield protests and this as well?

    As Equalities minister, she is responsible for the rights of both racial minorities and the LGBT+ community. Which side of the Parkfield debate so you think she should be on?

    (Rhetorical question; I know you believe the latter, and I agree entirely. But it's obviously a massive can of worms, and I don't blame her for staying the heck away from it. There are legitimate arguments about the extent to which parents should be allowed to decide on what their children are taught at school, and at what age, although inevitably these were the first casualties of the protests.)
    There is no contradiction between her two roles: minority religions are free to teach children the tenets of their religion but must also ensure that they do not prevent their children from being taught - just like every other child - what is the law of the land.

    As a general rule I don’t think parents should have a say in what is taught in school. Would you expect parents to determine what is in the physics curriculum or how Spanish is taught?

    Mordaunt is being a coward in staying away from this issue. This is her job.
    Minority religions? Minority is redundant in this context.

    All religions are minority pursuits these days.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,472

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    Central HQ could stop this, if they act now to stop UKIP (and worse) activists joining.
    A lot of Tories left to join UKIP when Cameron was in charge. If they’ve learnt the error of their ways, your position is they shouldn’t be allowed in but converts from any other party - Labour, LibDem, etc - should be. What is the logic for that ?
    "converts" is the operative word. Of course if an individual has changed their views and feel they should be in a different party, there shouldn't be a problem. People who haven't changed their views at all and are simply joining a party in order to get rid of their MP and change the party's stance are an entirely different proposition. There is also a big difference between the usual dribble of occasional conversions and an organised attempt to get people to switch parties in larger numbers.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Sean_F said:

    The associations will say that they are deselecting people who repeatedly vote against the government.
    Whom associations want to represent them should be entirely their prerogative. I don’t really care whether the candidates are Remain or Leave because I don’t believe should be the only criteria in candidate selection.

    Voting against the Gov is a long established tradition, unless MPs are in Cabinet. Seeking to undermine the Gov is rather different. That’s why I have no sympathy for Grieve but a lot for Gauke even though I disagree with them both.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    Central HQ could stop this, if they act now to stop UKIP (and worse) activists joining.
    A lot of Tories left to join UKIP when Cameron was in charge. If they’ve learnt the error of their ways, your position is they shouldn’t be allowed in but converts from any other party - Labour, LibDem, etc - should be. What is the logic for that ?
    Not very logical, but is self preservation.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    The associations will say that they are deselecting people who repeatedly vote against the government.
    Though I have no particular knowledge of Beaconsfield, I don't think it's even that. Rebels have long been tolerated (and frequently encouraged!) by all Associations, and other Remain Tories like Bob Neill have been fine at their AGMs. What seems to have really rankled is that Grieve said one thing at election time and did another thereafter.

    "What is clear to me, however, is that the decision of the electorate in the Referendum must be respected and that I should support a reasoned process to give effect to it."

    https://www.dominicgrieve.org.uk/news/dominic-grieves-election-message-constituents

    The party must of course be careful with entryism but Leave.EU don't have anywhere near the numbers they claim.
    Kenneth Clarke gets no stick from his association, too. People know where they stand with him.
    He's supported the Gov'ts WA.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Scott_P said:
    I have just noticed that the German political party in question has the same initials as April Fools' Day (give or take some case shenanigans). Making this a real AFD story on AFD.

    Can't remember what the point of this was, but I think there was one originally.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    kjh said:

    A tax question: Where a company spins off a division and issues new shares in the new company to the existing shareholders pro rata I am being told this is being treated as a dividend. Is this correct? Seems odd to me. I don't understand why there should be any tax liability and certainly not an income one as this is a capital transaction. Instead of being an investor in one large company I am now going to be an investor in 2 slightly smaller companies. I haven't sold any shares nor received an income.

    Advice?

    I am not a tax expert, but my understanding is the same as yours, i.e. usually there would be no income tax liability and in most cases no capital gains tax implications. However, it is a complex area and it will depend on the exact circumstances of this particular transaction.

    https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg33900
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    edited April 2019
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Everyone ready for another crazy day on the Westminster merry-go-round? :D

    Morning GIN, PB is a mirror view of Westminster, full of loons spouting as if they were experts whilst running about frothing. Good to see the Tory panic.
    Morning Malc,

    I think most of our establishment are living on coffee, gin and valium now... :D
    GIN, I am glad of the two week delay as I am off to Germany for a holiday at end of week, hopefully I will get back in.
    Enjoy; you'll probably be OK if you travel by surface; not quite so confident about air.
    OKC , I am driving and taking ferry South Shields to Ijmuiden. So get a wee cruise as well.
    I'd check and make that North Shields if I were you...lovely food on that boat.
    Oops mixing up my Shields, yes I have splashed out this time and taken top cabins with free refreshments and booked the nice restaurant, should be excellent.
    First time I went years ago I let them just pick standard cabin for me and ended up on top of the engines , what a nightmare, never make that mistake again. Certainly nice ships.
    I hope you enjoy yourself Malc, and come back with renewed vim and vigour. Is your booking a top cabin with free refreshments the same as the free glass of champagne that is offered in business or first class air travel*?

    *ie not free.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Cyclefree said:


    There is no contradiction between her two roles: minority religions are free to teach children the tenets of their religion but must also ensure that they do not prevent their children from being taught - just like every other child - what is the law of the land.

    But aren't the Parkfield protests about lessons which are not on the national curriculum?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,472
    kjh said:

    A tax question: Where a company spins off a division and issues new shares in the new company to the existing shareholders pro rata I am being told this is being treated as a dividend. Is this correct? Seems odd to me. I don't understand why there should be any tax liability and certainly not an income one as this is a capital transaction. Instead of being an investor in one large company I am now going to be an investor in 2 slightly smaller companies. I haven't sold any shares nor received an income.

    Advice?

    You can take a dividend in shares instead of cash and still have a tax liability, which deals with the second point. On the first I have a feeling you are wrong (and taking the different view would open up a few tax loopholes istm) but will let someone who actually knows provide definitive advice.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    _Anazina_ said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway off topic, I do hope that just as has been done with the Sackler wealth, there will be protests against and a refusal to accept the money of Brunei, which has introduced this disgusting law - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/brunei-to-defy-protests-and-punish-gay-sex-with-stoning-8kfntnt8c.

    SOAS students should be particularly outraged. Is there not a Brunei gallery there?

    Indeed, isn’t Penny Mordaunt meant to be the Equalities Minister? Perhaps she could get off her arse and do something about those Parkfield protests and this as well?

    As Equalities minister, she is responsible for the rights of both racial minorities and the LGBT+ community. Which side of the Parkfield debate so you think she should be on?

    (Rhetorical question; I know you believe the latter, and I agree entirely. But it's obviously a massive can of worms, and I don't blame her for staying the heck away from it. There are legitimate arguments about the extent to which parents should be allowed to decide on what their children are taught at school, and at what age, although inevitably these were the first casualties of the protests.)
    There is no contradiction between her two roles: minority religions are free to teach children the tenets of their religion but must also ensure that they do not prevent their children from being taught - just like every other child - what is the law of the land.

    As a general rule I don’t think parents should have a say in what is taught in school. Would you expect parents to determine what is in the physics curriculum or how Spanish is taught?

    Mordaunt is being a coward in staying away from this issue. This is her job.
    Minority religions? Minority is redundant in this context.

    All religions are minority pursuits these days.
    Sure. The Queen is a minority.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    IanB2 said:

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    Central HQ could stop this, if they act now to stop UKIP (and worse) activists joining.
    A lot of Tories left to join UKIP when Cameron was in charge. If they’ve learnt the error of their ways, your position is they shouldn’t be allowed in but converts from any other party - Labour, LibDem, etc - should be. What is the logic for that ?
    "converts" is the operative word. Of course if an individual has changed their views and feel they should be in a different party, there shouldn't be a problem. People who haven't changed their views at all and are simply joining a party in order to get rid of their MP and change the party's stance are an entirely different proposition. There is also a big difference between the usual dribble of occasional conversions and an organised attempt to get people to switch parties in larger numbers.
    Like all the socialsts and communists who joined a Labour to support Corbyn but didn’t change their views, you mean ?

    Grieve is not supporting either the manifesto of the Gov so he deserves what he gets. Gauke to date is being loyal even though he clearly doesn’t want to be. Making a move against him makes no sense and brings the party into disrepute - as as all the idiots campaigning against Berger brought Labour into disrepute.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    edited April 2019

    kjh said:

    A tax question: Where a company spins off a division and issues new shares in the new company to the existing shareholders pro rata I am being told this is being treated as a dividend. Is this correct? Seems odd to me. I don't understand why there should be any tax liability and certainly not an income one as this is a capital transaction. Instead of being an investor in one large company I am now going to be an investor in 2 slightly smaller companies. I haven't sold any shares nor received an income.

    Advice?

    I am not a tax expert, but my understanding is the same as yours, i.e. usually there would be no income tax liability and in most cases no capital gains tax implications. However, it is a complex area and it will depend on the exact circumstances of this particular transaction.

    https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg33900
    Yes, if you're swopping one equity for another equity, no tax should be charged. However the base cost of the asset remains the base of your orginal investment. The new shares 'sit in the shoes' of the old one.

    Edit; Although it 'can' be complicated and what looks like one thing can actually be another.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2019

    Sean_F said:

    The associations will say that they are deselecting people who repeatedly vote against the government.
    Though I have no particular knowledge of Beaconsfield, I don't think it's even that. Rebels have long been tolerated (and frequently encouraged!) by all Associations, and other Remain Tories like Bob Neill have been fine at their AGMs. What seems to have really rankled is that Grieve said one thing at election time and did another thereafter.

    "What is clear to me, however, is that the decision of the electorate in the Referendum must be respected and that I should support a reasoned process to give effect to it."

    https://www.dominicgrieve.org.uk/news/dominic-grieves-election-message-constituents

    The party must of course be careful with entryism but Leave.EU don't have anywhere near the numbers they claim.
    If politicians were deselected on the basis of saying one thing at election time and doing another thereafter, then the House of Commons would be a revolving door of 650 persons ever four/five years !!
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    Central HQ could stop this, if they act now to stop UKIP (and worse) activists joining.
    A lot of Tories left to join UKIP when Cameron was in charge. If they’ve learnt the error of their ways, your position is they shouldn’t be allowed in but converts from any other party - Labour, LibDem, etc - should be. What is the logic for that ?
    Not very logical, but is self preservation.
    If they’ve joined just to oust the sitting MP and solely on the issue of Brexit you might have a case. Not otherwise - IMO.
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    FT reporting more deselections possible in Tories.

    Sounds like Blue Momentum fully on the march.

    What a disaster for our democracy: both main parties swamped by extremists, whilst others walk away.

    The Tories on the brink, Labour have already crossed the event horizon.
    I think this Blue Momentum thing is overstated. The reports I've seen of comments from association officers have all said that it's not real. What does seem to be happening is that associations are expressing their annoyance to MPs whose positions are too far from the membership. How many de-selections will happen is anyone's guess, but I suspect it will be few if any.
This discussion has been closed.