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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure mounts on TMay with a divided cabinet and 11 days
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure mounts on TMay with a divided cabinet and 11 days to go
So another day when all the focus is on Westminster and Mrs. May’s cabinet as they pitch in with their own positions to try to influence this massive decision for the future of the UK.
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Neither allows us to sign third party trade deals (see advice given at last year's Chequers Cabinet meeting). Neither allow regulatory divergence. Both offer a solution to the Irish Question.
The advantage of May's deal as it stands, is that there's the declaration that a neater solution will be at least be sought, to allow the UK to eventually follow an independent trade policy.
Even if MPs vote through a requirement for the Political Declaration to include the goal of a "permanent" customs union, so what? The Political Declaration is not legally binding, as the AG admitted last month. What's to stop a future free trading PM from abandoning this goal when the Parliamentary constraints are not so tight?
What happens if we get to 10th or 11th April and a mechanism can be found to hold a two-way vote on a) Sign deal as is, b) Sign deal with amendment to political declaration for permanent customs union? Such that No Deal, Single Market and Second Referendum have been specifically excluded.
Surely then we'd finally have a positive result for May's deal (MV5?).
The problem with your solution of a vote on adding the CU to the PD is:
1) ERG throw toys out of pram
2) Opposition can't be sure the government will really negotiate for the permanent CU once they no longer have leverage
3) Corbyn doesn't really want to get to yes
The government need the cooperation of Parliament, and vice versa, for anything constructive to be done. And that includes obtaining any extension from the EU.
Unless you are suggesting an election after we crash out ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47768884
The DUP are sitting there worried about future regulatory divergence that might undermine the GB-N Ireland internal market. But that’s never going to happen until there’s a solution to the backstop. Everyone knows this. So why not just put it in writing and let everyone move on.
Are we supposed to be upset about the suggestion that Grayling is considering resigning?
That new arrangement is supposedly going to be flexible enough for us to have an open, unregulated border with the SM despite us having more regulatory independence and divergence and the ability to bring into the UK goods that are not compatible with SM regulations. Good luck with that.
If this is the Holy Grail that you are still looking for then once again May's deal gives the ERG the best outcome that they could reasonably hope for because the hunt is still on and the current time pressure is removed. The votes against May's deal become ever more mysterious and exasperating.
The alternative of no deal gives regulatory independence, it almost certainly creates a hard border in NI, it allows us to have our own trade deals (if only Fox had actually negotiated any) but it excludes us from EU trade deals (which, you know, actually exist). There would be some modest disruption and we would be less attractive to international investment wanting unimpeded access to the SM/EU. Right now that doesn't strike me as an attractive trade off but May's deal once again provides a solution. It just might be a better deal in 2 years time if the government doesn't waste those years like it has the last 2.
Or all three?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47746093
F1: Bahrain was a cracking race, and my post-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/bahrain-post-race-analysis-2019.html
It appears Leclerc got the fastest lap.
But for the main opposition to lose such a seat at such a time would not exactly be an encouraging sign for them. Greenwich 1987 springs to mind.
For some its the obverse, no pay rise and increase costs eg council tax leaping up.
Surely better to have a solid declaration from the EU that they’ll try and pursue a borderless solution, than trying later to undo a formal customs union, when there’s no incentive to even talk? Or as you say, negotiating from a No Deal position when we’d be in a mighty hurry to end an asymmetric tariffs regime.
By the way, what was Rory Stewart doing voting for a customs union last week? I could swear he said at that Speccie event when he debated Raab that a customs union was the worst possible outcome. Suspicious...
It would need the cooperation of Parliament to do that, and it's highly probable (although not quite certain, since some Tories might rebel) that it would get it. It would also need the agreement of the EU, which it's also highly likely, but not quite certain.
The UK then falls out of the EU. With no prep. With the obvious consequences. Parliament then impodes into a blame fest. Then a General Election.
Fun times... Thats brilliant isn't it. If its the "worst example of ill-discipline in cabinet in British political history" then isn't that the Chief Whip offering his resignation? He's not? Well, he's proving his own point isn't he.
From about 3.30pm: Debate and vote on the Programme Motion, then a debate on the EU Options
Speaker announces the selected amendments before the Options debate starts
8.00pm Half an hour voting period on the options. Voting method up to the Speaker
Results announced later (probably 9.30pm-10pm as last time, but no time is specified)
At the same time in Westminster Hall from 4.30pm there is a debate on the EU e-petitions
Process continues on Wednesday.
On the Programme Motion there is an Amendment from Snell deleting Wednesday, which I doubt the Speaker will take.
The Options tabled are:
A (Baron) - WA with unilateral right to exit the backstop
B (Baron) - No deal
C (Clarke) - Customs Union
D (Boles) - Common Market 2.0
E (Kyle-Wilson) - Confirmatory Referendum
F (Jones/Grieve) - No deal exit only after a referendum
G (Cherry) - Extension or Revocation
H (Eustice) - EFTA and EEA
A is a unicorn and F doesn't appear widely supported; my guess is the Speaker may take the other six.
Note that Labour appears to have given up on its option, despite Burgon continuing to bat on about it during his weekend's media interviews.
Correspondingly, I've put a tiny sum on him each way (fifth the odds top three) to win China, at 15 (16 with boost).
10 days.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1112596957049118721
As for the entertaining GP, like Hamilton I’m a little embarrassed that my hunch his odds were too long actually paid off.
Verstappen's had a 3rd and a 4th so far. Unlike other top chaps, it seems improbable his team mate will prove a challenge when the car's good enough to do well. And at China last year the Red Bull was very tasty. Plus there's a chance of Ferrari weakness in terms of reliability.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-declares-labour-party-14215597
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1111186348436832256
You might have to live with Chris Grayling. For ever.
May’s deal is a temporary Customs Union.
Anyone who votes for a permanent CU versus a temporary CU is either mischief-making (Labour), or thick (Tories).
If we *do* end up with a CU, we will be looking to relitigate it about 5 minutes later. It is not a viable outcome.
The CW is responsible for the backbenchers
Cabinet is assumed (I know, I know) to consist of grown ups
She has three choices effectively - no deal, no Brexit or Norway. All have electoral consequences let alone party management issues. A successor would be much more able to defuse the crisis because all new leaders have the benefit of a honeymoon period and Britain desperately needs Brexit not to be the only topic of political conversation.
The nation is completely bafffled as how to determine the difference from previous years.
What a corking April Fool.
How about a referendum with only those two options available on the ballot just for giggles.
She’s like a female Boris Johnson.
No sense of humour......
My own guess is that MPs' conservatism will lead to it being a repeat of last time, in the hope that a consensus emerges by magic. Letwin wanted AV but ran into the inevitable objections. But it's the Speaker's decision.
- The CU applies to goods whereas most of our trade is in services; deals on services would still be possible;
- People who think trade deals always benefit are kidding themselves; the US is offering a deal that advances its interests, not ours;
- much of our current effort is in defending and trying to roll over the deals we already have, anyway.
The PM's deal with no PD attached should have got support from the 30-40 soft brexit labour MPs but they are basically a bunch of cowards. I've given up on the ERG and hope they get expelled from the party, we need to kick every Tory MP who voted against MV3 out of the party. "Sincerely held beliefs" can take hike, no deal is not a tenable position.
This week feels like THE WEEK to me, another handful of ERG refuseniks and a block from Labour and it finally gets done. Then we get to spend another 2-3 years arguing about BRINO before Nigel does his worst in the next General.
Revoke followed by the complete destruction of our FPTP electoral system (where the least hated option wins) to the extent that an extreme party has power is possible but it's not as likely as the former.
Putting aside any Brexit preferences, a Euro Election would be politically fascinating at this juncture.
Will UKIP be able to stand every where? TIG/CUK and Farage's new party would come into play too.
I am keeping my fingers crossed we have to run them just for the drama!
Edit: Charles seems to be proud of being descended from theives, so maybe his question was meant to be positive?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47769369/worst-example-of-cabinet-ill-discipline-in-british-political-history
Our massive trade deficit in goods with the EU is the big prize. Barnier’s useful idiots are doing their best to squander our leverage.
Promising to go if we get a customs union must secure at least another dozen votes for that option.
No Deal has 600,000.
Spot the missing 0.
It's an extraordinary ratio. One can't exclude the possibility that the country is sick of Brexit and would now rather settle for the deal we already have.
A referendum to ratify a CU deal, with an alternative of staying in the EU if it's not ratified, starts to seem the most moderate way forward.
Kicking people out of parties is stupid. Adopt PR, then parties can split into smaller units with more similar beliefs and Bridgen needn't call Gauke a 'colleague'.
Strategically the best thing Labour can do is sit back and let the Tories tear themselves The EU was always going to do that and it is.
The ERG are the Tories' problem but with the views of their members as they are, it is hard to see how it can be excised (although Kinnock and Blair did manage the equivalent)
If Change UK manage to field a candidate in Aberconwy my vote and help would go to them to see off Guto Bebb who is not upto the job. I expected him to support the WDA but he wants to stop brexit altogether which was not in his manifesto