politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What can we expect from the planned Brexit inquiry

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What can we expect from the planned Brexit inquiry

In January 2004 the Hutton report into Dr David Kelly’s death was awaited with anticipation. The hearings had put the actions of politicians, civil servants, journalists, senior BBC management under a forensic scrutiny they would not normally expect.

Read the full story here

JohnO

A very meaningful backstopping first?

IanB2

Second like Leave

Endillion

Interesting article, but the title seems a tad inapposite?

kle4

The third point I consider especially relevant

TheScreamingEagles

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

Fenster

BREXIT IS FUCKED.

Amen.

nico67

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

Great news . The DUP now hoping the whole thing goes away. Also time for Brexit to be put out of its misery .

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1110487498562641920?s=20

kle4

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1110487498562641920?s=20

Dont remind him!

rkrkrk

A wise thread header. Annoyingly my value bets on Trump getting kicked out this year turned out not to be value.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

And so the final confirmation arrives. Told the ERG they left it too late.

The DUP only ever speak up it seems when any optimism over the deal emerges. They really meant it when they said they never want it. It's hard to tell because others use the same overblown rhetoric but dont necessarily follow through as much.

IanB2

YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

Philip_Thompson

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

And so the final confirmation arrives. Tom's the ERG they left it too late.

The ERG didn't have the votes to carry this in the first place.

May have had May not thrown away the majority of course.

Anorak

Fenster said:

BREXIT IS FUCKED.

Amen.

That is so true we should just log off now and go for a nice walk in the park.

TudorRose

The BBC are reporting that; The exact method of indicative voting will be considered in the amendable business motion to be debated tomorrow.
What are the chances of them agreeing a process before April 12th?

SandyRentool

IanB2 said:

YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

I predict a plurality for "Don't Know".

AndyJS

The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Sean_F

TudorRose said:

The BBC are reporting that; The exact method of indicative voting will be considered in the amendable business motion to be debated tomorrow.
What are the chances of them agreeing a process before April 12th?

Remote.

And, if they do,. they'll probably finish up voting to refer the matter back to the government.

Barnesian

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Even assuming

1) All signatures are unique
2) All signatures are eligible voters
3) All signatures are really in this constituency
4) All signatures would vote based on this

The number signing is still fewer than the number of Lib Dem votes in 2017, or by definition the number of Goldsmith votes in 2017

I assume that none of those points are entirely true, nor do I assume that everyone who supports or opposes something will sign an online petition about it. I'm taking the view that assuming a reasonably large number of the signatures can be taken as genuine it is still a very large chunk of voters in his constituency, and the number of people who back something will likely be higher than the number who state it publicly.

So your premise that the number of petition signatures is less than the number of votes he got, in counter to the idea it is significant, is fatuous and irrelevant because who would expect it to be? The question is whether there is enough of an indication from it as a demonstration of strength of feeling on this issue to think he is in trouble. There might be disagreement on that, but he has a very small majority, and whatever the actual numbers signing it is clearly a large number.

Sure, but Goldsmith made no secret of his pro-Brexit views in 2017, and still won back a constituency that voted 70% Remain.

FPT. In the Richmond Park by election in 2016, 1515 people voted Labour and Sarah Olney, the LD candidate overturned a 23,000 Tory majority and won by 1872 votes, thanks in part to the tactical voting by Labour supporters.

In 2017, 5773 people voted Labour! Up from 1515. Either they were enthused by Corbyn or didn't get the message but the effect was that Sarah Olney lost by 45 votes. I don't think Labour voters will make the same mistake next time and let a Tory win.

kle4

AndyJS said:

The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Spreadsheets, is there anything they cannot solve?

Endillion

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

And so the final confirmation arrives. Tom's the ERG they left it too late.

The ERG didn't have the votes to carry this in the first place.

May have had May not thrown away the majority of course.

May only called that election in the first place because of the existence of the ERG. It's still all their fault.

Benpointer

Another great header @Cyclefree - thanks!

WhisperingOracle

From the last thread -

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.

The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)

The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there

A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.

Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park

Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.

Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,

dixiedean

So is JRM a patriot subsuming his personal views for the greater good of Brexit.
Or a traitor to all that is right and proper?
Difficult to keep up.

Benpointer

AndyJS said:

The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

I think it was you Andy who said yesterday it might get to 6m but not much more, which I disputed.

Looks like you were right though as the rate has declined a lot and we appear to be reaching the plateau. Good call on your part.

It's still a very big number though!

AndyJS

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

The number of people signing the petition in Greater London constituencies is currently 1,098,011 which is 19.2% of the total number of signatures. (Selecting the number of signatures in London as an option isn't available on the webpage so I set up a spreadsheet to do it).

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Spreadsheets, is there anything they cannot solve?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x3eiUQFPhSbuCZEBgS_jec4d-M5xcPd48e44rs707fQ/edit#gid=0

Benpointer

SandyRentool said:

IanB2 said:

YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

I predict a plurality for "Don't Know".

Aka "Don't Understand"

Fenster

The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

Sean_F

WhisperingOracle said:

From the last thread -

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.

The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)

The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there

A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.

Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park

Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.

Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,

The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.

ExiledInScotland

Fenster said:

The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

I think you underestimate the alignment of social conservatives between the DUP and the Tory party members. If the members are allowed a leadership vote expect the Tories to shift to be more conservative with a small c.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1110498398195630081

mr-claypole

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

They may have had a chat with some of their constituents and realised they were deep in it. Things have been moving very fast amongst unionist sentiment in NI. I am assured by a good friend who is an Orangeman from County Down that discussions at his lodge have included English exceptionalism and questions as to if a 'no' from the republic might save their bacon in a border poll.

Andy_Cooke

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

brendan16

SandyRentool said:

IanB2 said:

YouGov are doing a survey today on the various Brexit options.

I predict a plurality for "Don't Know".

Will those being polled be provided with explanations of what each option means e.g. the customs union, a Customs union or Corbyn's special customs union where uniquely we can be in a customs union with the EU while operating our own independent trade policy?

RobD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1110498398195630081

Too late. They are fools, the lot of them.

IanB2

Fenster said:

The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

The dilemma for the Tories would be whether to:

A) Fight on May's approach to Brexit, which would keep most MPs happy and maximise the chance of winning the election, but upset activists and the ERG and make it exceedingly difficult to go for a harder Brexit afterwards, or

B ) Fight for a hard Brexit, pleasing much of the party but losing their sensible wing and much more likely to see the Tories out of office for fear of no deal.

TudorRose

Sean_F said:

WhisperingOracle said:

From the last thread -

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.

The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)

The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there

A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.

Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park

Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.

Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,

The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.

He votes Tory.

williamglenn

Haha!
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110524629792292865?s=21

Benpointer

FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1110509777476599808

Absolutely terrible news.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/26/18280726/europe-copyright-directive

Is it going to be as bad as the disaster that was predicited on here about GDPR which has of course subsequently ground the internet to a halt stopped a lot of my unwanted spam, thank you very much?

Charles

Sean_F said:

WhisperingOracle said:

From the last thread -

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.

The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)

The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there

A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.

Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park

Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.

Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,

The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.

“Priced at” =/= “worth”

IanB2

Barnesian said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Even assuming

1) All signatures are unique
2) All signatures are eligible voters
3) All signatures are really in this constituency
4) All signatures would vote based on this

The number signing is still fewer than the number of Lib Dem votes in 2017, or by definition the number of Goldsmith votes in 2017

I assume that none of those points are entirely true, nor do I assume that everyone who supports or opposes something will sign an online petition about it. I'm taking the view that assuming a reasonably large number of the signatures can be taken as genuine it is still a very large chunk of voters in his constituency, and the number of people who back something will likely be higher than the number who state it publicly.

So your premise that the number of petition signatures is less than the number of votes he got, in counter to the idea it is significant, is fatuous and irrelevant because who would expect it to be? The question is whether there is enough of an indication from it as a demonstration of strength of feeling on this issue to think he is in trouble. There might be disagreement on that, but he has a very small majority, and whatever the actual numbers signing it is clearly a large number.

Sure, but Goldsmith made no secret of his pro-Brexit views in 2017, and still won back a constituency that voted 70% Remain.

FPT. In the Richmond Park by election in 2016, 1515 people voted Labour and Sarah Olney, the LD candidate overturned a 23,000 Tory majority and won by 1872 votes, thanks in part to the tactical voting by Labour supporters.

In 2017, 5773 people voted Labour! Up from 1515. Either they were enthused by Corbyn or didn't get the message but the effect was that Sarah Olney lost by 45 votes. I don't think Labour voters will make the same mistake next time and let a Tory win.

I agree; it will be much easier to pull Labour supporters across now that Labour's brand is tarnished by their internal problems, the defections, and their fudge and mudge on Brexit. The risk is that TIG have been talking about standing everywhere and not looking for deals with other parties - however without more traction it is hard to see TIG making a nationwide impact away from where their MPs are standing.

tlg86

Sean_F said:

WhisperingOracle said:

From the last thread -

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Goldsmith looks pretty dead and buried. In fairness he did well to win back the seat after throwing it away in the first place.

Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.

The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)

The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there

A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.

Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park

Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.

Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house prices in the country, the highest average earnings and amongst the highest level of graduates but also I suspect the highest concentration of aristocrats and members of the upper classes. Comfortably well off, even if landed gentry, is still below that on the pecking order

I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,

The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.

Just looked on street view - there are some right monstrosities on that road.

Charles

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

Isn’t it S(ain)t Reatham now?

TheWhiteRabbit

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

why Finchley?

IanB2

tlg86 said:

Sean_F said:

WhisperingOracle said:

From the last thread -

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Cities of London and Westminster is now at the top of the list, using % of the electorate.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

first place.

Not necessarily. He did win 28,000 votes, and the Conservatives were level-pegging in the seat in the local elections.

The richest spots in London are very remain, and very Tory (Knightsbridge etc)

The poshest voters tend to be Remain voting Tories so no surprise there

A somewhat selective view. Rural southern england and elsewhere was chock full of posh Tory leave voters at the referendum.

Posh Tory Leave voters in the Home Counties are still not as posh as even posher Tory Remain voters in Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster and Richmond Park

Now we're coming into a cultural values question. Posh Tory leave voters in the countryside consider themselves to be more authentically at the top of the tree, essentially from both a more culturally conservative and more culturally nativist point of view.

Well they aren't, Kensington and Chelsea and Cities of London and Westminster not only have the highest house below that on the pecking order

I'd agree with you right up to the last point. Nowadays even the wealthiest children of the aristocracy, with 1000 years of Norman wealth behind them, have often been priced out the grandest london houses by the international mega-rich.

There are more of both aristocrats and gentry outside London, I would say - and crucially, where they are to be found also have a much more powerful relationship with the communities nearby,

The wealthiest district of all is probably Highgate Village, and the streets off Hampstead Lane, like The Bishops Avenue. There's a house with enormous grounds worth £300 m, owned by the Mayor of Moscow.

Just looked on street view - there are some right monstrosities on that road.

There certainly are. Hideous mock Tudor, mock Greek temple, mock palatial. The worst architecture west of Chigwell. And some very angry motorists at school pick up time. Always tons of building work going on due to the latest oligarch excavating a basement, the road strewn with sand and dust.

The BBC rented a house up there for at least one of the Apprentice series.

TOPPING

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

As mentioned on that thread I think Ealing Central & Acton would or should be a target. Depending upon how the Cons leadership battle goes I might be applying to represent the Tiggers there myself.

AndyJS

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

I can't see Labour losing Streatham even with a strong TIG challenge from Ummuna.

GarethoftheVale2

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

Benpointer

IanB2 said:

Fenster said:

The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

The dilemma for the Tories would be whether to:

A) Fight on May's approach to Brexit, which would keep most MPs happy and maximise the chance of winning the election, but upset activists and the ERG and make it exceedingly difficult to go for a harder Brexit afterwards, or

B ) Fight for a hard Brexit, pleasing much of the party but losing their sensible wing and much more likely to see the Tories out of office for fear of no deal.

Well summarised. It's a lovely dilemma (for the Tories to have to face).

anothernick

Fenster said:

The only option now available to Tory leavers is to call a GE, win it with a majority, tell the DUP their services are no longer required, and vote through either a hastily negotiated deal or No Deal.

Not the easiest task. And on current form, they'd probably lose an election.

The DUP are in a Goldilocks zone as it stands, holding sway over the government. That evaporates at the prospect of a new GE. But the backstop matters more to them than that.

Exactly. For the DUP it is the backstop. Forced to choose whether to throw Brexit or the backstop under the bus it will be Brexit that loses out. The backstop is totemic to the DUP's commitment to their sectarian base and refusal to contemplate any change to the relationship between the UK and the Irish republic. Their base cares much more about that than Brexit.

A fact that has been clear all along, and if the ERG had more than half Karen Bradley's brain between them they would have worked out that contracting out their decision on the deal to the DUP would lead them to the position in which they now find themselves.

Recidivist

williamglenn said:

Haha!
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110524629792292865?s=21

Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?

IanB2

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

If you live in a safe seat and your vote is wasted, it doesn't matter how big or small it is.

dixiedean

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

DecrepitJohnL

OT 188bet is closing

You might want to check if you have any antepost bets on, say, the next Prime Minister.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/competitive-marketplace-is-blamed-as-188bet-cease-trading-in-britain-and-ireland/372708

Pulpstar

Are the ERG slowly working out that the DUP aren't really on their side ?

AndyJS

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

Here it is:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018

TudorRose

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

Or the pollsters are failing to recruit leave voters to their samples.

Danny565

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?

Andy_Cooke

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

why Finchley?

High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.

Nigel_Foremain

dixiedean said:

So is JRM a patriot subsuming his personal views for the greater good of Brexit.
Or a traitor to all that is right and proper?
Difficult to keep up.

Probably neither. He is just a failed, bedwetting little Mummy's boy who overplayed his hand.

dixiedean

AndyJS said:

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

Here it is:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018

Ta very much!

Danny565

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1110534850975551491?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1110536416692523008&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47696409

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1110535625302831104

AlastairMeeks

Recidivist said:

williamglenn said:

Haha!
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110524629792292865?s=21

Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?

The passing of the Great Reform Act.

WhisperingOracle

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1110536673492942850

..so they're simply postponing any conflict or decision.

Time is too short for this sort of front and charade.

Nigel_Foremain

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

Slightly makes a mockery of one person/one vote. Our system is broken, it needs drastic reform. The idea that we have the right to moan about those pesky undemocratic Europeans is an absolute joke.

DecrepitJohnL

Andy_Cooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

why Finchley?

High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.

Ironically, customary demographic analysis treats Jews as a block vote which might be considered antisemitic.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1110538925947478018?s=21

RobD

.

Nigel_Foremain said:

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

Slightly makes a mockery of one person/one vote. Our system is broken, it needs drastic reform. The idea that we have the right to moan about those pesky undemocratic Europeans is an absolute joke.

Shame the previous boundary reform was voted down then, wasn’t it?

Benpointer

Danny565 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?

I think the key point flagged up by someone was that support for leaving with May's Deal was (unsurprisingly) way ahead in second round preferences. Leonardo's tweet doesn't show that but Faisal's does...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1110538925947478018?s=21

Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

It is just sad we are served with such mps

Benpointer

AlastairMeeks said:

Recidivist said:

williamglenn said:

Haha!
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110524629792292865?s=21

Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?

The passing of the Great Reform Act.

It was all downhill from there for the Bruges Group.

Benpointer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1110538925947478018?s=21

Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

It is just sad we are served with such mps

Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.

williamglenn

Benpointer said:

Danny565 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?

I think the key point flagged up by someone was that support for leaving with May's Deal was (unsurprisingly) way ahead in second round preferences. Leonardo's tweet doesn't show that but Faisal's does...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562

Given that remaining in the EU gets an absolute majority on first preferences, that’s a moot point.

DecrepitJohnL

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Even that begs the question of the most appropriate measure. Is it electorate or population? Do MPs represent all their constituents or just the ones on the electoral rolls? (The difference may be accentuated by purging the rolls recently.) Is neither measure right and we should look at the number of actual voters, as is customarily done by PR advocates?

crandles

Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

Nigel_Foremain

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1110538925947478018?s=21

Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

It is just sad we are served with such mps

Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.

He might be the last person to know though, unless TMay had it written on her knickers, in which case he might know before anyone else.

Big_G_NorthWales

Benpointer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Recidivist said:

williamglenn said:

Haha!
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110524629792292865?s=21

Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?

The passing of the Great Reform Act.

It was all downhill from there for the Bruges Group.

It would be funny if it was not serious but hearing the DUP are seeking a long extension, the exact opposite of ERG demands, now highlights not only ERG's stupidity over the first MV but they have now been cast into the wilderness by those they support or more specifically have tried to use

brendan16

Danny565 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?

The same analysis from last June on that table had an 16 per cent lead for remain - so its not moved that much in 9 months.

But when asked what option they prefer people say 55 per cent remain, 17% leaving on May's deal and 27% leaving with no deal. So that has an 11% remain lead not 20%?

I suppose like all these polls it depends what question you ask! And variants of the same question give the same result e.g. the difference between what you want and what you think is the right thing to do?

Benpointer

Leadsom (rightly) threatening to cancel MPs Easter break now. That'll hurt.

On the bright side, there could be some good late deals for the rest of us on luxury Tuscan villas as a result.

AndyJS

dixiedean said:

AndyJS said:

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

Here it is:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2018

Ta very much!

This is interesting:

"Total number of UK Parliamentary electors decreases
The total number of UK Parliamentary electors in December 2018 was 45,775,800, a decrease of 372,000 (negative 0.8%) from the previous year."

This is the page with a link to the full data. Not sure if it was on the one I posted before.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/datasets/electoralstatisticsforuk

Nigel_Foremain

RobD said:

.

Nigel_Foremain said:

dixiedean said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

Interesting. Do you have a link to the full figures? Could Google of course but am busy.

Slightly makes a mockery of one person/one vote. Our system is broken, it needs drastic reform. The idea that we have the right to moan about those pesky undemocratic Europeans is an absolute joke.

Shame the previous boundary reform was voted down then, wasn’t it?

A large number of MPs don't want reform, for the same reason that local councillors object to unitary authorities; less jobs for the boys.

Benpointer

Nigel_Foremain said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1110538925947478018?s=21

Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

It is just sad we are served with such mps

Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.

He might be the last person to know though, unless TMay had it written on her knickers, in which case he might know before anyone else.

Naughty, but funny!

Andy_Cooke

DecrepitJohnL said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

why Finchley?

High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.

Ironically, customary demographic analysis treats Jews as a block vote which might be considered antisemitic.

It would also be an error.

Benpointer

williamglenn said:

Benpointer said:

Danny565 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1110449746349645825?s=21

That poll seems to show a 20-point Remain lead. Has that been reported before?

I think the key point flagged up by someone was that support for leaving with May's Deal was (unsurprisingly) way ahead in second round preferences. Leonardo's tweet doesn't show that but Faisal's does...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1110443949775298562

Given that remaining in the EU gets an absolute majority on first preferences, that’s a moot point.

I was reporting not supporting it.

Nigel_Foremain

crandles said:

Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

Did someone see Philip May wandering in there with his collar up?

WhisperingOracle

Andy_Cooke said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Andy_Cooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Andy_Cooke said:

From a couple of comments on the previous thread and the petition signatures by constituency, I wondered what would be the most TIG-able seats.

My guess:
Cities of London and Westminster (as suggested on the previous thread)
Streatham
Finchley and Golders Green
Putney
Chelsea and Fulham
Kensington
South Cambridgeshire

... which leads me to thinking that both Ummuna and Allen might be in with shots of holding on where they are, especially if they try the by-election route first.

why Finchley?

High petition signature level plus the antisemitism issues that forced some TIGgers out.

Ironically, customary demographic analysis treats Jews as a block vote which might be considered antisemitic.

It would also be an error.

Yes ; there's a strong traditionally urban/metropolitan leftish jewish vote ; a business vote ; and a culturally conserative orthodox jewish vote, at the least.

Nigel_Foremain

Benpointer said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1110538925947478018?s=21

Is this the same Chope who objected to the upskirting law.

It is just sad we are served with such mps

Have a word with your fellow members in the Chichester CCP!

Edit: That said, Chope might not be wrong on this point.

He might be the last person to know though, unless TMay had it written on her knickers, in which case he might know before anyone else.

Naughty, but funny!

Benpointer

Anyone heard from TSE on his latest No Deal likelhood prediction?

I assume he's moved from 65%

Philip_Thompson

Endillion said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1110528254350368768?s=21

And so the final confirmation arrives. Tom's the ERG they left it too late.

The ERG didn't have the votes to carry this in the first place.

May have had May not thrown away the majority of course.

May only called that election in the first place because of the existence of the ERG. It's still all their fault.

No she hubristically thought she could get a Blair-style landslide because she was 20 points ahead of Labour and go down in history as one of the greatest leaders ever. She furthered her hubris by seeking to get every unpopular act she might want to take into her manifesto (like scrapping the triple lock on pensions, the dementia tax etc) in order to get a mandate to take unpopular actions while having a landslide majority.

This hubris led to her nemesis.

AndyJS

IanB2 said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

If you live in a safe seat and your vote is wasted, it doesn't matter how big or small it is.

Why is a seat safe in the first place? Because the voters have decided to make it so.

Philip_Thompson

crandles said:

Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

Parliament still needs to ratify the Statutory Instrument to change the date.

Nigel_Foremain

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Recidivist said:

williamglenn said:

Haha!
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110524629792292865?s=21

Trying to work out what happened around 1820 that he was worried about. Not Waterloo presumably. Congress of Vienna maybe?

The passing of the Great Reform Act.

It was all downhill from there for the Bruges Group.

It would be funny if it was not serious but hearing the DUP are seeking a long extension, the exact opposite of ERG demands, now highlights not only ERG's stupidity over the first MV but they have now been cast into the wilderness by those they support or more specifically have tried to use

It is serious, but it is still funny. The ERG clearly too thick and ignorant to know the ruthlessness of politics the other side of the Irish Sea. They thought they were using the DUP, while the DUP were quietly fitting them up with concrete shoes under the table.

Danny565

Update on "the DUP are softening on May's deal":

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1110542082144436224?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1110542082144436224&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47696409

crandles

Nigel_Foremain said:

crandles said:

Betfair are refusing to suspend market 'UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?' Note the rules say
Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended? Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50.
There is conditional extension to 22 May but otherwise extended to 12 April. This has been formally adopted and there is press release saying so and I have repeatedly sent this to betfair help. Can people here see and agree with Betfair's logic or are they being silly?

Did someone see Philip May wandering in there with his collar up?

You've lost me here, what does this have to do with anything?

Slackbladder

Danny565 said:

Update on "the DUP are softening on May's deal":

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1110542082144436224?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1110542082144436224&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47696409

That sounds like the final nail in the coffin for May, and for Brexit.

Benpointer

AndyJS said:

IanB2 said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

The ONS released the latest electorate figures last week showing why we badly need a boundary review. I have excluded the special island seats.

Top 20 England

Milton Keynes South 92,000
North West Cambridgeshire 91,121
Sleaford and North Hykeham 90,874
West Ham 90,048
South Northamptonshire 88,039
Milton Keynes North 87,654
Ashford 87,102
North East Bedfordshire 86,990
Banbury 86,431
Bury St Edmunds 86,374
Wantage 86,243
Manchester Central 86,233
Folkestone and Hythe 85,855
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 85,283
Croydon North 85,196
Warrington South 84,741
Poplar and Limehouse 84,355
East Devon 84,195
Mid Bedfordshire 84,055
South East Cambridgeshire 83,958

Bottom 20 England

Aldridge-Brownhills 59,382
Putney 59,382
Wolverhampton North East 59,367
Hexham 59,298
Nottingham East 58,930
Cities of London and Westminster 58,639
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 58,638
Leeds North West 58,553
Middlesbrough 58,518
Northampton North 58,398
Kensington 57,627
Berwick-upon-Tweed 57,544
Wolverhampton South West 57,478
Wirral South 56,350
Stoke-on-Trent Central 55,898
Preston 55,512
Blackpool South 55,510
Newcastle upon Tyne East 55,459
Wirral West 54,249
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 53,362

The low electorates for Kensington and Westminster back up the comment downthread about the super rich moving in.

Top 5 Scotland

Linlithgow and East Falkirk 85,436
Falkirk 82,830
Livingston 80,487
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 78,606
Rutherglen and Hamilton West 78,164

Bottom 5 Scotland

Aberdeen North 58,620
North East Fife 57,143
Ross, Skye and Lochaber 53,220
Glasgow North 52,059
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 46,407

Top 3 Wales

Cardiff South and Penarth 74,000
Vale of Glamorgan 73,510
Cardiff North 64,953

Bottom 3 Wales

Aberconwy 43,804
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 42,982
Arfon 38,864

Top 2 NI

Upper Bann 80,601
Newry and Armagh 78,713

Bottom 2 NI

East Antrim 62,985
Belfast West 62,921

If you live in a safe seat and your vote is wasted, it doesn't matter how big or small it is.

Why is a seat safe in the first place? Because the voters have decided to make it so.

I really object to this use of 'voters' as a if they were a single entity.

I am in a safe seat because the majority of my neighbours vote Tory but over 1/3rd of us didn't vote for him - we didn't make it a safe seat. The same happens in safe Labour seats.

Richard_Nabavi

Benpointer said:

I really object to this use of 'voters' as a if they were a single entity.

I am in a safe seat because the majority of my neighbours vote Tory but over 1/3rd of us didn't vote for him - we didn't make it a safe seat. The same happens in safe Labour seats.

So you were outvoted by a large margin. What's the objection, exactly?

TGOHF

DUP are out , WA dead. May as PM is dead.

There is now no path for the Uk not to take part in the EU elections.

Vote early, vote Nigelly.

brendan16

Benpointer said:

Leadsom (rightly) threatening to cancel MPs Easter break now. That'll hurt.

On the bright side, there could be some good late deals for the rest of us on luxury Tuscan villas as a result.

Most workers only get Good Friday and Easter Monday off as bank holidays - why do MPs need nearly 3 weeks off (from 4 April to 23 April)?. Even primary school kids don't get that long!