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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority
In the good old days of political betting, which sadly are no more, the number of seats the parties would get at the next general election were traded like stocks and shares. For those who followed the polls and fancied their political prediction skills this offered a lot of opportunities.
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A question: to what extent will the inevitable bickering, backstabbing and all-out hostility between the Blues and the Yellows over the next 18 months lead to a decline in their combined share, to Labour's benefit?
We're seeing the first signs already, and it's not pretty.
You can see both parties doing better as their identies get asserted
In effect, they need to crowd Labour out of the debate in the way that the rows between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair crowded the Conservatives out of the debate.
Wow, something new every day!
Mike Smithson doesn't want any more letters from M'Learned friends on this topic.
Repeat offenders will find their posting privileges revoked until the conclusion of the trials.
They have got McCann threads that claim it was the Clangers wot did it etc..
"Mike Smithson doesn't want any more letters from M'Learned friends on this topic."
It's going to struggle to remain "Britain's Most Read Political Blog" I would say......
Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and David Cameron have been warned to keep their MPs in check ahead of one of the most high profile criminal trials involving a political figure in years.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/10405763/Dont-comment-on-Andy-Coulson-and-Rebekah-Brooks-MPs-told.html
It doesn't mean either assumption is correct though .... all is still to play for.
"Please accept my apologies for our politics markets not being available online. It is in our interest to have the prices available as often as possible, and only take them down when we feel it is completely necessary, which often is linked to the availability of our politics trader.
Having spoken to the trader, we will be able to offer you a price tomorrow morning should you wish to close out. We won’t be putting the market back up online, but will be able to quote you a price over the phone. We will send you an email once the price has been calculated."
They did indeed send me a price, so anyone in the same position who wishes to close out should get in touch with them.
Without taking a view on the main result, the two which look like value to me are SNP greater than 6.5 with Ladbrokes, and LibDem greater than 32.5 with Paddy.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2013/oct/30/costa-concordia-dancer-admits-affair-captain-video
LOL!
What could be more popular ?
Grangemouth, Firefighters, Teachers, Posties - all calling off strikes - hmm.
Oh, and FPPPT - thanks PtP for the US analysis, one of the best threads for a while.
£20 on Lib Dems over 32.5 it is @ 5/6 with Paddy
Most likely it's because the market doesn't really make much money though. Too much risk for not much reward.
Having been market maker in the financial markets for over a decade, I can attest to the fact that making a two way price is trickier than it sounds....there are a number of factors to take into account.
Is that because they were Labour or they were the Government though ?
"Labour MP Chuka Umunna was uncharacteristically shy at last night’s launch of FIXR, a new free app that allows users to search for nightlife venues and to buy tickets on their smartphones. He told snappers at Nobu Berkeley in Mayfair that he didn’t wish to be photographed. "
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/app-for-it-amber-le-bon-says-yes-8913286.html
Beating the overround/spread is quite hard and thats why only 2% of people can win overall I think.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/us/25abbey.html?_r=0
However most spread firms are regular risk-taking bookies - you're not trying to beat other punters any more than you are when you play with Ladbrokes or bet365.
For the spread firms, occasionally offering seat lines is reasonably safe business - but if they offered as many markets and specials as the likes of Hills / Paddy Power they'd get their pants pulled down too.
Generally there's insufficient interest in political punting this far out from an election to make it anything much more than a PR or customer service exercise for the bookies. Leaving prices up 24/7 is inherently risky and/or time-consuming to monitor - they'll only take chunky bets this far out if they get them wrong or something happens.
If the spread is 300-305 then to compare that to an approximate % over-round you need to have a good feel for the likely distribution of outcomes.
People who want us to spend money upgrading the existing network to cope with more traffic need to remember the above. There is lots that can be done on the existing network - and some of it is being done - but the WCML upgrade shows that there are limits to what can be achieved on an operational railway.
As someone once said: they should just have closed the entire line for nine months and done it properly ...
What would be the problem with ditching HS2 and reopening the Great Central Main Line?
As evil capitalists pigs, naturally the Bookies would understate the likely Labour seat tally in 2015!
The stretch between London and Aylesbury Parkway is still in use; south of Amersham by main line and tube trains, although south of Harrow there are shared tracks. It could (fairly) easily be rebuilt from Aylesbury to Rugby, and perhaps from Rugby to the Leicester-Nuneaton line. But the 4-6 tracks from Marylebone to Harrow are already shared by Jubilee line and mainline services, so are fairly busy. There is *some* capacity on that line, especially with a little work, but not as much as a new line. And it is slow.
Also Marylebone does not have much room for long or more trains, apparently. You should not underestimate the length of the new trains.
I can see the stretch to Rugby being rebuilt in the nest twenty years anyway, in a similar manner to the Oxford<->Cambridge route, and mainly as a freight line.
So in short: it would give less capacity of the wrong sort.
This link has more info:
http://blog.railnews.co.uk/?p=183
Not sure. Presumably Labour are better off soft-pedalling on the Libs to push the tactical vote?
"The NHS is safe in our hands"
Marylebone is thoroughly underused, there are currently only two trains per hour all the way to Birmingham. Places like Sudbury Hill and South Ruislip get only one train an hour. And why stop there? You could conceivably connect to Crossrail to provide through trains, in fact Crossrail originally was supposed to have a branch connecting to the Aylesbury line.
Edit: Via the tube
But there are too many local vested interests and politicians who want a local cause celebre, and too many ordinary people who haven't researched the issues (no reason why they should) and assume that 'a local hospital near me' is the best thing.
http://www.thamesclippers.com/images/pdf/ThamesClippers_timetable.pdf
It just seemed wrong.
This may have been my geekiest post on PB ever.
If you want just the Tube/DLR, take the Northern line to Tottenham Court Road, then Central to Bank then DLR to Greenwich (using the Lewisham service).
Waterloo Ost
London Bridge
Deptford
Naughty writers and producers with their inaccurate depiction of the British tube and train service.
The film itself was rather awesome.
The Jubilee line does not stop at Charing Cross any more (and doesn't go to Greenwich at all). Waterloo, the nearest stop, is 6 stops from North Greenwich by tube.
By train, the journey from Greenwich to Charing Cross can indeed be only three stops - London Bridge, Waterloo East and Charing Cross. But that is only on fast trains. Some also stop at Deptford.
As for Marylebone. From memory, there is not much room for expansion - new platforms were built there recently to cope with possible increased services.
There's a bigger problem. The new trains are upwards of 400 metres long, much longer than existing trains (witness the St Pancras HS1 trainshed extension). Marylebone's platforms are a maximum of around 240 metres (only 2 faces), with little prospect of extension due to surrounding buildings and curves.
A better alternative would be to link the route to the GC/GW joint 1906 Chiltern line and take a HS route into the Paddington environs (Old Oak Common?) But that has its own problems ...
Having said that, altering Euston for HS2 is going to be massively costly as well.
I've never heard of the Crossrail - GC links - do you have any further info?