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The DUP have said they will vote against the government in a vote of confidence, if any deal with a backstop passes a ‘meaningful vote’, so we could have an almighty constitutional crisis as soon as this week.
Add in the Independent Group, and a couple more Con defections there leaves Con + DUP with no majority, and a whole pile of urgent legislation that needs to be passed.
So if the government believes its own propaganda, there will be an early election, almost certainly under a new leader (and the expected bounce would be a third reason for the Tories to call a snap election).
In the event, Labour made 28 gains from the Tories but lost back 6. Of the sixteen predicted gains, Morley, Thurrock, Bolton W, Telford and Plymouth Moorview failed to materialise, whereas Canterbury was no. 122 on the Labour target list and Canterbury no. 104. Mansfield was no. 54 on the list of seats the Tories expected to gain had there been a swing to them.
Those outliers feel pretty big but I'm wondering if it's unusual to have outliers that big? I mean, weird stuff always happens...
The risk comes if the election is forced on the Conservatives by a breakdown in the DUP relationship or by defections among their own MPs.
We’ve read the May set to go story multiple times now; is it true this time ?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/10/brexit-is-heading-towards-extra-time-the-question-then-is-to-what-purpose
The anti-Semitism intervention story looks significant.
i trust that "small time" is a typo of "small town". Small time indeed !
https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1104097056593977344?s=19
This reply has the situation sussed, unfortunately.
https://twitter.com/Meggles4111/status/1104103432841977856?s=19
It comes after the death in a Syrian camp of the baby son of Shamima Begum, who left London to join Islamic State and had her UK citizenship revoked.
The Sunday Times quotes legal sources who name the women as Reema Iqbal and her sister, Zara, from east London.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47512659
I believe the word is fractious.
On the other side of the ledger, I'd expect them to regain Kensington, and for Battersea to be very tight.
I remember the stuff about incompetent weapons delivery from Admiral Woodward’s evidence in favour of retaining the Harrier back at the beginning of the decade, but that was... new.
So by his standards it was more 'unusually honest.'
I pointed out that neither had any mandate at all, but my informant was unfazed.
Last month Reema Iqbal told The Telegraph she was hopeful of returning to the UK.
She said: "The security services came to speak to me and I was honest, I told them my whole story so now it’s up to them to judge. I don’t know if my Mum ever got me a Pakistani passport or not, I’ve never been to Pakistan. ..."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/09/two-isil-brides-stripped-british-citizenship/
Forget all the economics - just tell people Blair will be back as PM and they'll vote Remain without hesitation.
Perhaps a metaphor for the whole of Daesh - the guilty don't understand the enormity of what they did, and the innocent suffer for their mistakes.
It’s a shame because we need more independent policy thinking and critique, and rather less jumping on social media bandwagons.
One presumes she has been promised a safe seat or something.
As he does so, he leans intently forward on the edge of his green ministerial sofa, as if he feels he can force a deal through purely with his own strength of character.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6791053/Hand-heart-Ill-way-beat-backstop-DAN-HODGES-reveals-Attorney-Generals-pledge.html
But the extremists went on to kill Yazidi men and enslave thousands of Yazidi women, buying and selling them at markets.
They instilled an extreme form of Islam over their controlling population, and executions and amputations were commonplace.
But Reema Iqbal does not want to talk about this. She is polite, friendly and smiles frequently, but she is adamant she is not going to talk to anyone right now.
"I don't trust anyone. I'm sorry. I've been burned before," she said.
https://news.sky.com/story/i-dont-trust-anyone-the-british-women-who-married-is-jihadis-11638517
What is also interesting is what a large part Scotland will play at the next election. Quite a large number of targets and awkward defences there.
Corbyn was in Dundee on Friday. I missed him but it seemed an interesting choice. Both of the Dundee seats are wildly out of reach now and Fife, once a Labour stronghold, is not much better. Scottish Labour are not in a good place but none of the Scottish parties are.
The SNP, and Nicola in particular, are looking tired and slightly tarnished. The ongoing issues with Salmond are a major distraction and the government has very little to show. The ongoing agonies of Brexit are also a major problem. Anyone claiming that leaving the UK would be easy are just going to be laughed at.
The Tories have missed Ruth during her absence. Indeed it has vividly shown once again both how fortunate they are to have her and how shallow the talent pool is. She was and is a staunch remainer so maternity leave during the current shambles has been a useful time out for her. It will be interesting to see how her position evolves in the now unlikely event that the deal goes through.
The Lib Dems continue to struggle to be heard but certainly have aspirations to do better, particularly in Edinburgh. A Scottish leader might make a difference.
Overall Scotland looks pretty messy to me. There are lots of potential losers but the winners are harder to spot.
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1104660178446807041?s=21
They were crucifying children, burning prisoners alive, sexually enslaving women, attempting to totally exterminate the Yazidis.
Would we believe defectors to the Nazis who claimed they wanted to help civilians suffering at the hands of the Soviets, or made homeless by Allied bombing?
https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1104106275527380992
* while stocks last
Ultimately, any fifteen year old can make bad choices, and many of them do. There is a limit to what can be done to stop them. In this case, for example, the only way to stop Shamima Begum making such a disastrous error would have been to lock her up, which would obviously have really helped convince her that ISIS was a Bad Thing and the West was on her side.
As bin Laden said ... "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse."
As long as ISIS looked to be winning, they gained recruits unbothered by their sadistic methods. The chance to be bullies and to oppress others attracted them. Now they are losing, they become cooks.
She also didn't repudiate the ideology of ISIS and only murmured in that direction when the backlash to her interview occurred (even then equating the Manchester terrorist attack to Coalition airstrikes on ISIS).
Mr. Doethur, have to admit I'm unfamiliar with that part of WWII. I think I've only heard it mentioned in a Bond film or two before.
Should citizenship matter so much when you are dead? Or should we care as much or as little as any other child?
But I understand Labour officials are considering an incredible plan to unseat Berger at the next Election
In what alternative universe would the Conservative and Labour Parties not seek to regain seats from MPs who'd defected? The news is that there might still be a path for prodigal MPs to return.
Mr. CD13, quite. ISIS' followers haven't converted to the West, they've just lost the war.
At what age does the PB ‘damn her and her bad choices’ logic end?
One curious aspect of this whole affair is that the security services seemed not to notice or wonder about three unaccompanied minors flying on one-way tickets on a known route to ISIS. Burgess and Maclean could escape to Russia because the MI5 teams following Maclean only worked 9 to 5 Monday to Friday. It seems any lessons learned have been forgotten.
Doesn't matter how ready and willing I might be if the call never comes.
Starmer trying to hide he really, really wants to remain, but doing it very poorly
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/09/mazie-hirono-trump-1214714
But then what?
We already know that Corbyn is surrounded by posh millionaires. Is this news or just gossip?
I wonder whether there was a tendency for Leave voters to discount Brexit when voting because they already had what they wanted (or thought they did) whereas for Remain voters it felt more urgent to vote on Brexit lines (and for whatever reason Labour was perceived to be the best Remain option).
This means that if the next election is fought in an atmosphere of Brexit being lost, or in real peril, then one might expect Leave voters to be more motivated to vote on Brexit lines than Remain voters. This suggests that an election will be bad for whichever side temporarily has the upper hand. If MPs are aware of this then it makes any election exceptionally unlikely, but if one does happen it is likely to increase political instability rather than decrease it - and this is likely to be the case until a compromise can be reached that is acceptable to both sides. Is that possible within the next decade? I have my doubts.
The ‘Caliphate’ was never a state in international law, and I don’t recall you - or HMG - being in favour of its recognition.
The whole episode is desperately sad but I very much doubt anything could have been done in the short time to the childs passing that would either have saved the child or provided time to even bring the child, with or without his mother, back to the UK
Last time a poll showed 78% opposing Begum being allowed to return and I doubt that opinion has changed significantly since.
The worrying part is that the security services did not seem to have noticed them leave. Why is MI5 not monitoring ticket sales, let alone the airport?
There is clearly a difference between strongly self identifying Leavers and Remainers in that the former seem more likely to opt out of the electoral process if they don’t get their Brexit, I think.
Which goes some way to explaining Corbyn’s determination to frustrate any deal - and makes the ERG even less explicable as rational individuals.