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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is no Brexit who would Leavers blame?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is no Brexit who would Leavers blame?

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    There's going to be plenty of blame to go round. But the whole of the political establishment is going to get smeared with it......
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Off topic but this is a really bad fake Melania.

    https://twitter.com/SallyPitts_WSFA/status/1104103471949770752
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    david_herdson said:

    Off topic but this is a really bad fake Melania.

    https://twitter.com/SallyPitts_WSFA/status/1104103471949770752

    It's an even more fake Donald - seeming to care about people hit by misfortune? Who you kidding....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Were there options or results for the parties themselves?

    Corbyn's score might give us an idea but the assumption is May isn't fighting another election so the blame on her as an individual isn't important (if the assumption is right)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    MarqueeMark said:

    david_herdson said:

    Off topic but this is a really bad fake Melania.

    https://twitter.com/SallyPitts_WSFA/status/1104103471949770752

    It's an even more fake Donald - seeming to care about people hit by misfortune? Who you kidding....
    The real Melania should start making public appearances with a fake Donald.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019
    edmundintokyo said:

    david_herdson said:

    nico67 said:

    williamglenn said:

    This is relatively plausible. A two year extension and May to quit.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1104154008392888320

    This is what I’ve been thinking might happen . May extends and resigns , saying a new leader needs time to reset the negotiations . If you’re going to have a transition why not have voting rights . Although I think it’s likely to be a shorter extension say 9 months .

    How can May carry on being forced to change her red lines and go for a softer Brexit . The ERG might be willing to wear an extension to get a “ true believer “ in .
    But that's precisely the problem. If the extension is long enough to incorporate a Tory leadership contest, then it will be won on a firm-to-hard Brexit mandate. It won't necessarily be an ERG candidate who wins but it will be someone who plays to that audience. At which point, you can't then go for a softer Brexit. Which means there's still no scope for a deal that the EU would agree to.
    Dunno though, maybe they take the Tsipras path: Win the election on a platform of never giving in, get into office kick up a big storm about how you're not going to give in, then give in.

    You just need someone with the appropriate shrugging skills.
    If Never giving up and not giving in is to be the Tory's slogan our Eurovision entry from 1983 might be just want they need as a theme song. It got a lot more support in Europe than our recent efforts.

    We're never giving up, not giving in
    If there's the slightest chance that we can win.
    The battle may be lost but we can win the war
    And get our Brexit back the way it was before!

    Didn't Theresa May, Geoffrey Cox and Andrea Leadsom make a great team in their younger days?!!!

    Sweet dreams!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in5hT6P9KFA
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    I blame Mike (only kidding!)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    People tend not to blame themselves poll shocker.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    IanB2 said:

    People tend not to blame themselves poll shocker.

    The figure for both remain voters and leavers is far too high; the average voter has close to zero influence after they vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    People tend not to blame themselves poll shocker.

    The figure for both remain voters and leavers is far too high; the average voter has close to zero influence after they vote.
    But by extension, the poll shows that Leave voters are (as is human nature generally) tending to apportion the blame as far away from themselves as possible.

    Kudos to the 16% who are presumably wondering whether allowing themselves to be led up the garden path toward an impossible dream might have had something to do with it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    From the news, those must surely have been some baffled workers:

    Addressing workers from Ørsted, a Danish energy and wind turbine firm, May also urged the EU to make new concessions over the Irish backstop – the issue that caused many of her MPs to vote against the deal the first time – before last-ditch talks in Brussels this weekend.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited March 2019
    david_herdson said:

    Off topic but this is a really bad fake Melania.

    https://twitter.com/SallyPitts_WSFA/status/1104103471949770752

    I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but Alec Baldwin and Cecily Strong from Saturday Night Live look more convincing than these two.
    youtube.com/watch?v=Ft5XUalItuY

    Edit: Laura Benanti also does a very good comedy Melania for Stephen Colbert's show.
    youtube.com/watch?v=w9HZu0AJ3ZU
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 413
    They will blame Remainiac MPS and Remainiacs generally - they already do, but almost only the MPs.

    But, LEAVE will win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This week's councillor defections: back to a trickle:

    Bournemouth: Con to IND
    Carmarthenshire: Five x Lab to IND; one Ind to Lab
    East Devon: Con to Ind LD
    East Staffordshire: Two Con to IND
    Luton: Lab to IND

    (Excluding a few suspensions after various incidents)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    On topic, while it's easy to say the Remoaners in Parliament and the media utterly unaccepting of the referendum result, IMO the ultimate responsibility lies with the PM and her negotiators for toeing the EU's line throughout the negotiations, from the sequencing of the talks to the backstop proposals to the way the Chequers deal was sprung on the cabinet.

    She lost two Secretaries of State for DExEU, because they were overruled by Downing St on policy and process. Even after the deal died a death by 230 votes, she still thinks it will will pass if she submits it again a few weeks later. At no time have we said we're walking out, the no-deal preparations haven't been adequate enough to convince the EU we might seriously take that option.

    Most of us on here predicted the EU's playbook with regard to the negotiations when they started two years ago, and it's played out exactly as we guessed it would - a crap deal with an ultimatum to 'either sign here or we treat you like North Korea'. I'm still less than convinced they won't be out to get us even after we leave, and especially if we enter a period of vassal statehood.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    People tend not to blame themselves poll shocker.

    The figure for both remain voters and leavers is far too high; the average voter has close to zero influence after they vote.
    Yes, but if the referendum vote had been 100% leave...

    Those pesky remainerite traitors !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    Bit odd that Corbyn would get more blame than May.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited March 2019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Bit odd that Corbyn would get more blame than May.

    Probably about tribal loyalty as much as anything else. Remember, the vast majority of Leavers hate and despise Corbyn already for other reasons. It's just another stick to beat him with.

    Helpfully he's flip-flopped so often everyone can blame him for whatever happens. It's a bit like the time SeanT predicted all outcomes of the Scottish referendum so whatever happened he could say 'I told you so,' but in reverse.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    A post-mortem before the villain dies.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Russian troll bots attack Meghan
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/03/08/megbot-army-linked-russian-conspiracy-theories-tweeting-obsessive/

    Still think our politics is clean? Pb's finest were sucked in on the last thread.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Russian troll bots attack Meghan
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/03/08/megbot-army-linked-russian-conspiracy-theories-tweeting-obsessive/

    Still think our politics is clean? Pb's finest were sucked in on the last thread.

    The Russian troll bots were not attacking Meghan, they were supporting her. Probably hired by her PR team.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    A post-mortem before the villain dies.

    My Latin is a bit rusty, but surely that would be a pre-mortem?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Cameron's Europe briefing
    The files, available for the public to view from Monday at www.margaretthatcher.org, also include a briefing paper on the benefits of the coming European Single Market, written by a young David Cameron, who was then at the Conservative Research Department.

    "We believe that creating a single community market will be good for Britain, good for Europe and good for the world," runs the opening quote, from the party's manifesto for the European elections in 1989.

    Pages initialled by "DC" set out how the single market, due to start in 1992, would help business, workers, consumers, savers, holidaymakers. It detailed the changes in different sectors of the economy and was extremely positive about the effect this would have.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47500386
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Cameron's Europe briefing
    The files, available for the public to view from Monday at www.margaretthatcher.org, also include a briefing paper on the benefits of the coming European Single Market, written by a young David Cameron, who was then at the Conservative Research Department.

    "We believe that creating a single community market will be good for Britain, good for Europe and good for the world," runs the opening quote, from the party's manifesto for the European elections in 1989.

    Pages initialled by "DC" set out how the single market, due to start in 1992, would help business, workers, consumers, savers, holidaymakers. It detailed the changes in different sectors of the economy and was extremely positive about the effect this would have.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47500386

    He wouldn’t disagree with that now...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Leavers have made no attempt to build a consensus around any viable model of Brexit or identify meaningfully priorities that were consistent with the mandate obtained. Their refusal to compromise on matters that were at the fringes of the referendum campaign has been deadly.

    If you don’t like the consequences of campaigning on xenophobic lies, don’t campaign on xenophobic lies.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Russian troll bots attack Meghan
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/03/08/megbot-army-linked-russian-conspiracy-theories-tweeting-obsessive/

    Still think our politics is clean? Pb's finest were sucked in on the last thread.

    I have no idea about cleanliness, but the evidence you link to is .... underwhelming.

    "One account with the second highest number of pro-Meghan followers, which also tweets about US politics from a pro-Democratic perspective, appears to indicate “bot-like activity” while the fourth most shared account frequently tweets from Russia Today and has questioned Sergei Skripal’s near-fatal Novichok poisoning."

    I don't think you need to have pb's finest mind to want a bit more convincing.

    It is alleged to be part of a DCMS select committee report, but it is not in the DCMS website, as far as I can see.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Russian troll bots attack Meghan
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/03/08/megbot-army-linked-russian-conspiracy-theories-tweeting-obsessive/

    Still think our politics is clean? Pb's finest were sucked in on the last thread.

    The Russian troll bots were not attacking Meghan, they were supporting her. Probably hired by her PR team.
    The trolls do both. Russia's interest is stirring up controversy and dissent. Comrade Putin has no interest in the relative standing of Sussex and Cambridge, just that we should argue about them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,715
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, while it's easy to say the Remoaners in Parliament and the media utterly unaccepting of the referendum result, IMO the ultimate responsibility lies with the PM and her negotiators for toeing the EU's line throughout the negotiations, from the sequencing of the talks to the backstop proposals to the way the Chequers deal was sprung on the cabinet.

    She lost two Secretaries of State for DExEU, because they were overruled by Downing St on policy and process. Even after the deal died a death by 230 votes, she still thinks it will will pass if she submits it again a few weeks later. At no time have we said we're walking out, the no-deal preparations haven't been adequate enough to convince the EU we might seriously take that option.

    Most of us on here predicted the EU's playbook with regard to the negotiations when they started two years ago, and it's played out exactly as we guessed it would - a crap deal with an ultimatum to 'either sign here or we treat you like North Korea'. I'm still less than convinced they won't be out to get us even after we leave, and especially if we enter a period of vassal statehood.

    "She lost two Secretaries of State for DExEU, because they were overruled by Downing St on policy and process."

    They claim. You could equally say that they had no f'ing idea what they were doing, and were lazy fools - especially Davis.

    Reality hit him, fast and hard.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Brexit itself is to blame. If there were a good implementation to be had, Leavers would be showing the way, taking responsibility instead of resigning and voting against. We would be getting on and doing it. Remain voters would be on board with the collective decision. Brexit is failing because of its contradictions and because it doesn't give Britain what it wants, including what Leavers want, beyond the mere fact of leaving the EU. Brexit just isn't a good idea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,715
    FF43 said:

    Brexit itself is to blame. If there were a good implementation to be had, Leavers would be showing the way, taking responsibility instead of resigning and voting against. We would be getting on and doing it. Remain voters would be on board with the collective decision. Brexit is failing because of its contradictions and because it doesn't give Britain what it wants, including what Leavers want, beyond the mere fact of leaving the EU. Brexit just isn't a good idea.

    Yep.

    And that is down to the central lie the leavers took into the referendum. They wanted to win, and the things they did for victory means they're responsible for this mess.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Russian troll bots attack Meghan
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/03/08/megbot-army-linked-russian-conspiracy-theories-tweeting-obsessive/

    Still think our politics is clean? Pb's finest were sucked in on the last thread.

    The Russian troll bots were not attacking Meghan, they were supporting her. Probably hired by her PR team.
    The trolls do both. Russia's interest is stirring up controversy and dissent. Comrade Putin has no interest in the relative standing of Sussex and Cambridge, just that we should argue about them.
    Putin simply wants us arguing about the relative standing of Sussex and Cambridge !!!!

    What on earth do you think Putin's motivation is?

    I love the way you think a Daily Telegraph article (hedged with weasel words like "appears to indicate ") is evidence.

    Let's have the evidence for your extraordinary claim that Putin wants us arguing about two women many of us couldn't care less about.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, while it's easy to say the Remoaners in Parliament and the media utterly unaccepting of the referendum result, IMO the ultimate responsibility lies with the PM and her negotiators for toeing the EU's line throughout the negotiations, from the sequencing of the talks to the backstop proposals to the way the Chequers deal was sprung on the cabinet.

    She lost two Secretaries of State for DExEU, because they were overruled by Downing St on policy and process. Even after the deal died a death by 230 votes, she still thinks it will will pass if she submits it again a few weeks later. At no time have we said we're walking out, the no-deal preparations haven't been adequate enough to convince the EU we might seriously take that option.

    Most of us on here predicted the EU's playbook with regard to the negotiations when they started two years ago, and it's played out exactly as we guessed it would - a crap deal with an ultimatum to 'either sign here or we treat you like North Korea'. I'm still less than convinced they won't be out to get us even after we leave, and especially if we enter a period of vassal statehood.

    "She lost two Secretaries of State for DExEU, because they were overruled by Downing St on policy and process."

    They claim. You could equally say that they had no f'ing idea what they were doing, and were lazy fools - especially Davis.

    Reality hit him, fast and hard.
    Yet if PM were an appointed CEO-type role, he believes that he’d get the job easily. Genuinely delusional.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    YBarddCwsc said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Russian troll bots attack Meghan
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/03/08/megbot-army-linked-russian-conspiracy-theories-tweeting-obsessive/

    Still think our politics is clean? Pb's finest were sucked in on the last thread.

    The Russian troll bots were not attacking Meghan, they were supporting her. Probably hired by her PR team.
    The trolls do both. Russia's interest is stirring up controversy and dissent. Comrade Putin has no interest in the relative standing of Sussex and Cambridge, just that we should argue about them.
    Putin simply wants us arguing about the relative standing of Sussex and Cambridge !!!!

    What on earth do you think Putin's motivation is?

    I love the way you think a Daily Telegraph article (hedged with weasel words like "appears to indicate ") is evidence.

    Let's have the evidence for your extraordinary claim that Putin wants us arguing about two women many of us couldn't care less about.
    Have you read the Meghan debate on the last thread?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    People tend not to blame themselves poll shocker.

    The figure for both remain voters and leavers is far too high; the average voter has close to zero influence after they vote.
    Nige's Brexit Betrayal march will change that perception.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    david_herdson said:

    Off topic but this is a really bad fake Melania.

    https://twitter.com/SallyPitts_WSFA/status/1104103471949770752

    I think the photo is real. The Trumps are clearly light years outside their comfort zone in boondocks Bible Belt Alabama.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, while it's easy to say the Remoaners in Parliament and the media utterly unaccepting of the referendum result, IMO the ultimate responsibility lies with the PM and her negotiators for toeing the EU's line throughout the negotiations, from the sequencing of the talks to the backstop proposals to the way the Chequers deal was sprung on the cabinet.

    She lost two Secretaries of State for DExEU, because they were overruled by Downing St on policy and process. Even after the deal died a death by 230 votes, she still thinks it will will pass if she submits it again a few weeks later. At no time have we said we're walking out, the no-deal preparations haven't been adequate enough to convince the EU we might seriously take that option.

    Most of us on here predicted the EU's playbook with regard to the negotiations when they started two years ago, and it's played out exactly as we guessed it would - a crap deal with an ultimatum to 'either sign here or we treat you like North Korea'. I'm still less than convinced they won't be out to get us even after we leave, and especially if we enter a period of vassal statehood.

    I pretty much agree. May and her utter incompetence was an essential stepping stone towards the remainer majority in Parliament blocking Brexit despite being elected (with a few honourable exceptions) on a diametrically opposed undertaking.

    The old curse of be careful what you wish for is going to become very real for those remainer MPs. It's unfortunate that more of them, like Grieve for example, have not joined the Tiggers so it is easier to remove them from Parliament.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leavers have made no attempt to build a consensus around any viable model of Brexit or identify meaningfully priorities that were consistent with the mandate obtained. Their refusal to compromise on matters that were at the fringes of the referendum campaign has been deadly.

    If you don’t like the consequences of campaigning on xenophobic lies, don’t campaign on xenophobic lies.

    Leavers were not in charge. May was in charge and promised to deliver. But consensus for her is like an Ikea flatpack chest of drawers with no screwdrivers. She hasn't the faintest idea where to start.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The more we learn about Brexit, the more crooked it looks.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-more-we-learn-about-brexit-the-more-crooked-it-looks/2019/03/08/b011517c-411c-11e9-922c-64d6b7840b82_story.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I'm surprised David Davis and Boris Johnson aren't on the list or perjhaps they both go under the heading 'Mrs May'. What were they both doing for two years before resigning?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    NEW THREAD.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,715
    edited March 2019
    On domestic matters, it'd be interesting to see how criticism of Javid over the death of Shamima Begum's son plays with the public. Are Abbott and Labour on a winner with their angle?

    My Facebook feed has several people who are hopping mad about it; but then they're the Venezuela-supporting, Putin-excusing, Corbyn-loving crowd ...

    Ahem. Wrong thread ...
  • TheAncientMarinerTheAncientMariner Posts: 227
    Not sure how the OP makes his conclusion - I thought the ERG wanted a harder Brexit and are thus below many others,
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    IanB2 said:

    From the news, those must surely have been some baffled workers:

    Addressing workers from Ørsted, a Danish energy and wind turbine firm, May also urged the EU to make new concessions over the Irish backstop – the issue that caused many of her MPs to vote against the deal the first time – before last-ditch talks in Brussels this weekend.

    I don't think some of them had even read the Good Friday Agreement.
This discussion has been closed.