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A key aspect of UK elections that seems to get sidelined is the nature of what we are actually doing when we vote at general elections. We are not, except in the EU parliament elections, voting for a specific party and we are not voting for a Prime Minister.
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Very few people contact their MP during any Parliament, let alone on a 'since-the-last-polling' basis.
That being the case, I cannot see it advances the sum of human knowledge much.
Now, it SHOULD be the case that you make your mind up to vote for a good constituency MP and decide to vote for someone else if you consider them less than good. In reality, you vote for the local franchise of Brand Cameron or Brand Milliband, or, if your regard both of these men as poor, you vote NOTA - ie for someone else.
One of the few examples of 'getting rid of an idiot' was Lembit Opik in GE 2015, but there are countless examples of poor constituency MPs who have thumping majorities, GE after GE after GE.
Also, any MP who is in the news a lot - generally senior Ministers, but others can figure prominently too - will have higher satisfaction ratings than one who is 'below the radar'.
I'd suggest a good independent-thinking constituency MP would be what you want - not one with a good PR Dept to publicise every last thing s/he does.
I'm sure this silly idea would never have seen the light of day on PB if the example poll didn't show LibDem MPs "ahead" of the other options.
However, please note: http://www.totalpolitics.com/opinion/416802/polling-not-love-actually.thtml
IMHO it should be standard PB policy that whenever poll findings are presented, it is simply common courtesy to provide the readers with a direct link to the detailed findings so that readers can do their own analysis and perhaps therefore have an opportunity to discuss or challenge the conclusions presented by the PB poster.
No other signs of Stormaggeddon. Have I missed it?
I can see leaves being blown about. Fancy that - in autumn, as well......
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/respect-party-in-disarray-as-five-councillors-quit-in-row-with-mp-1-6186452
... has not (yet) affected this:
Bradford West (Paddy Power)
Labour 1/5
Respect 3/1
Con 16/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
Or was George Galloway's own brand of toxic personal chemistry already "priced in"?
In other news, Falkirk rumbles on, post the ST revelations:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/the-scotsman-cartoon-falkirk-1-3160904
It will effect all parties including some senior MPs.
Is to do with from whom MPs rent their offices from.
A lot rent from their own local party/Unions.
It isn't illegal or outside the rules and they must pay market rates, it has the potential of making the perception of politics looking sleazy.
Bernard Jenkin says it should be stopped.
My favourite headline so far: 'Peruvian government reopens its UFO investigation bureau' (@Guardian)
They must have thought that the met offices big storm was really a huge flying saucer. LOL
An active MP tries to improve their profile by getting in the local press a lot. Since I rarely read the local press this rather passes me by too but I accept it might influence more people. Whether it influences them to be supportive or the reverse will presumably depend on the view they have taken. So if an MP is pressing for a bye pass around a town, for example, those who are opposed will think the worse of them.
The idea that this polling shows anything particularly meaningful about the actual work of the MP therefore seems unlikely. More likely it shows that Lib Dems are still better (despite the Coalition) at getting cross party support, probably because they are thought to be more in the middle than one extreme or the other. It shows that there is still some strength in the idea of an anti tory coalition although I don't think it is anything like what it was in the Blair years. And it shows as a generality that people will be more vociferous in disliking institutions than individuals unless they are particularly annoying. Ho hum.
On topic, the polling is interesting, probably accurate, but not necessarily in anyway predictive. In the classic scenario of voting for a donkey in rosette, the key point is that the voters do generally notice it's a donkey; but they vote for it anyway, and then complain it's a donkey. Repeat every 5 years. My impression would be that an MP who cares about the constituency is seen as a nice luxury, but not something for which you'd risk having the 'wrong' PM. Witness the majority of the late Eric Forth, possibly the most self-avowedly indifferent to his constituents of any MP this century. And the difference between him and many others was probably his honesty about his view of his constituents, not the view itself.
On my way home this morning, I heard Evan Davis on Radio 4 ask a Met Office bloke "Is there a particular London aspect to this storm?" The Met guy answered that London's streets would have an effect on the strength of the wind, protecting some areas, but intensifying the wind in others. Obviously, no other town or city's buildings could possibly affect such a serious storm as poor London is having to face.
Interestingly, Opinium ask their education (free schools) questions of respondents in England-only. Good. I get sick and tired of YouGov asking England-only questions (eg. English NHS, English education system, English legal/penal system) of Scottish respondents. Totally idiotic from a supposedly qualified/certified research organisation.
http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_15_10_2013.pdf
First PB victim of the storm discovered! The plastic door protecting my gas meter is open, and the catch broken.
Emergency services are on their way ...
On topic, the only MP where I've ever lived who deserved to lose on grounds of general foolishness was Bob Spink, and even he got back in again the next time! In the seat he'd lost 4 years before.
Has any other great country ever died before without anybody even noticing?
Register here: www.lordashcroftpolls.com
Wild guess - losing Scotland from the Union would do Cameron personal harm, but be ideal for rUK Conservative majorities in the future
and
the more likely a Conservative victory in GE2015, the more likely 'Yes' is to win.
Us Northerners are made up of sterner stuff than those Southern shandy drinkers.
http://t.co/5x25z0qdUn
Central Line closed while "staff" try to remove fallen trees from the line. And all for £45k/yr.
those guys...
I am sure many others may have had a difficult night - I hope not !
We need to improve education, get them fit for the workplace and they'll be fine. Just as most of us were.
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/?Loc=GB
Quite glad not to have a particularly severe storm, although it was still raining (again) this morning.
However, it's unlikely to rain in Abu Dhabi, where the antepenultimate race of the 2013 F1 season will take place this coming weekend. read my early discussion piece here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/abu-dhabi-early-discussion.html
I know the mentality.
A weather warning has been issued for Yorkshire.
But we keep calm and bugger on.
Re: MPs. My local one is a LD, nice chap bit too many woolly (lots of lost sheep here) LD theories and not enough practicalism. Does his best but a bit too pragamatic. His main opposition is Plaid and so should have no problem retaining his seat.
Local Plaid AM is hopeless (as are most of the AMs) and rarely seen unless there is a photo-shoot opportunity. Nobody seems to know who the regional AMs are and where their local office is - believe they luxuriate in their anonymity. County council is even more amateur. The EU Assembly Members only seem to pop up every 4 years or so - nobody knows what they do all day for their largesse.
"During a long conversation, Donaldson gave great praise to Germany saying that England would be completely crushed by the early spring; the Government would leave the country and that England's position would be absolutely hopeless, as poverty and famine would be their only reward for declaring war on Germany. Scotland on the other hand had great possibilities."
There are clear advantages. One of them being that the wait for our Olympic contingent in the opening cermony will be shorter !
According to the maps, where I live (South Cambridgeshire) was subject to some fairly high winds, although not as bad as further south.
Better safe than sorry.
Wont stol the serial whiners whining.
This is a success. Why all the carping?
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
Those outside London seem to think this is somehow a sign of the relative weakness of Londoners, when of course it is simply a sign of the relative importance of Londoners.
Tomorrow we'll all go back to making money to keep them in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed but which they have not yet learned how to earn.
Oh well...
In twenty years time people will probably not be allowed to make such comments
I then betrayed the county by moving to the flatlands.
One thing that always gets me is people's inability to drive well (or at all) in snow. I guess the problem is that as heavy road-blocking snow is a rarity down here (one or two days a year, if that), people don't adapt. Where snow (or bad weather generally) occurs more regularly, the people are more used to it.
As for London, I was very proud of the way everyone did keep calm and carry on after the bomb attacks in 2005.
We sit on the beach at Silecroft in this sort of weather with a flask of tea, a fleece and a blanket. It's known as summer.
Incidentally, did anyone manage to spot the swastika yesterday? I'm not a Manchester United fan, of course, but it baffled me.
There was a lot of bewilderment from the locals happened, at the lack of response from Londoners to what happened, in contrast to what happened in Madrid/Spain a year earlier.
Not everyone associates "New Order" with a top music band, but the National Socialists of Germany.
Edit: Perhaps it was just a subtle pop music reference, apparently there's a fetish to put pop music references into articles and headlines.
Never understood it myself
::Innocent face::
What value full flooding of Westminster? :-)
It is now very sunny outside with the most beautiful blue sky - it looks like the perfect day for a windy walk in the park but, alas, on account of no-one being in the office, I actually have to do some work.
So there we have it: only Antifrank and me are keeping the City going today......
When the terror attacks happened in Madrid, there were large communal protests in Spain against terrorism.
Whereas Londoners carried on as normal.
But that pleasant manner did often overlay a lot of narrow-mindedness and suspicion which is dissipating among younger people - the way that objections to gay marriage have just blown away is a good example which you eouldn't have seen 20 years ago. On balance, like Surbiton, i'm pretty hopeful for our future.
An utterly ridiculous claim by some daft bugger that wishes to see what they want to see in everything no doubt.
Damage report: very windy between 3-5 am – garden umbrella fell over, no fatalities.
Not only do Londoners sacrifice their quality of life so that mine is better than it othewise would be but they also give everyone a good laugh in so doing.
Now here's something for Londoners to read about - they may have heard about such places or even seen them when outside the M25 but its not likely that they'll ever live in one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-family_detached_home
A few of the support staff were feeling a bit shaky the next day, but despite it being optional whether people came into work or not, most did.
Spaniards who lived through a similar attack in Madrid last year view London's phlegmatic return to normality with a mixture of admiration, incomprehension and outrage.
While the Madrid train bombings brought millions of mourners on to the streets of Spanish cities and provoked angry demonstrations, political rows and a change of government, Spaniards have found Londoners' stiff upper lip almost unintelligible.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/jul/12/spain.media
Around the world @World_news_2014
Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers rules out public inquiry into the 1998 Omagh bombing http://bbc.in/15TCn2o