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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Miliband energy price freeze might not have produced better voting numbers but it continues to poll well
Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead at 6
Con 33%
Lab 39%
LD 9%
UKIP 12%
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YouGov details don't seem to have been given here yet: 39/33/9/12, approval 27/59, the worst for a while. A generally grouchy sample - Cameron doing well -22 (down 7), Miliband doing well -31 (down 5), Clegg -52 (down 4),
Quick overview of findings:
The UK economy probably isn't growing (41-34) and certainly not in the respondent's area (55-22). Labour would be marginally better on the cost of living (26-24) but really everyone would be rubbish (37), all the energy ideas are popular, but if people have to choose they prefer the price freeze (39) to reducing green taxes (28) or a windfall tax (23). Green costs should continue but subsidised by "other taxes" instead of an energy levy (39 vs 34 cut the green subsidies and 15 carry on as now). Nobody is trusted to protect energy needs (38 - Con and Lab both 22). Spending money to help nuclear, wind, solar and tidal power all very popular (48/51/60/62). New nuke power station a good idea (49-30), but not with those horrid French and Chinese (28-55) or, contradicting the earlier finding, a Government subsidy (26-49).
The NHS has got worse but personal experience is good.The NHS should keep providing a 7-day service even for minor things, and nobody should be paid more to do it.
Time to run the last person to switch the lights off posters, if Labour gets back in, as a reminder that the lights will be blacked out due to the ill considered policies agreed by Miliband at Copenhagen.
How much power won't be generated by windfarms tonight? Cue for photographs of stumps in the water sans windmill blades.
But if the Conservatives force the issue on green taxes it will put a lot of strain on the internal Lib Dem morale and unity. Government approval (according to the weekly YouGov polls) has decreased quite a bit over recent weeks, and this has mostly been driven by current Lib Dem voters.
Changes since 12/13 September (before conferences):
All -9
Con -5
Lab -5
LD -32
Ukip -11
C10 -5
L10 - 4
LD10 -10
"That's Camerons political problem in a nutshell - he's a fake"
An opportunist certainly but so are all politicians. Having said that it must be the Labour party's prayer that they cut green taxes.
The opportunities to paint Cameron as the charlatans charlatan would be unprecedented. Every ad agency in London would be queuing up to have a go. The easiest awards they'll ever pick up and these'll make him look like a fake.
Which of the three party leaders do you support the most in their approach to energy bills?
David Cameron (lowest tarriff and cut green taxes in order to reduce bills) - 40%
Ed Miliband (freeze energy bills and reform energy market) - 33%
Nick Clegg (retain green taxes, increase efficiency, and subsidise fuel poverty) - 7%
Don't know - 20%
http://survation.com/2013/10/the-great-uk-energy-debate-survation-take-a-detailed-look-for-the-mail-on-sunday/
I think this makes an interesting companion to the poll information above in the thread header. So ed's approach may not be so popular as implied above.
The LD problem is clear - they want to govern and oppose at the same time - the result is even clearer as shown above.
A corrupt organisation run for the cabal at the top not the peons at the bottom.
And Unite aint much better it seems.
This seems to me the area that should be reformed. Overall the BBC is very good - I think it does get biased from time-to-time, and I think that they have perhaps a wider footprint than they need to - but it's probably the best value for money I personally get in any area of my spending.
The accountability thing is tricky - you can't after all fine the BBC as you'll just finish up paying those fines yourself. Perhaps senior management should have a part of their packages liable to fines - a sort of reverse performance linked bonus.
Seldom have we seen a faker representative of Labour's core voters than multi-millionaire opportunist EdM.
I haven't yet discovered how to put someone else's quote in a shaded block without putting the whole quote in which is the reason-I imagine-you bizarrely thought Tim and I would use exactly the same sentence to describe Cameron!
"Duped Ed"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2477725/Miliband-duped-union-dirty-tricks-vote-rigging-probe.html
Seems Ed was duped by an oufit not smart enough to get a gmail account.
EdM has been rumbled. He's a con and a fake.
Outside PB Toryworld the polling supports Miibands policy and overwhelmingly brands Cameron a fake
oh dear tim did you miss this from Survation;
Which of the three party leaders do you support the most in their approach to energy bills?
David Cameron (lowest tarriff and cut green taxes in order to reduce bills) - 40%
Ed Miliband (freeze energy bills and reform energy market) - 33%
Nick Clegg (retain green taxes, increase efficiency, and subsidise fuel poverty) - 7%
Don't know - 20%
http://survation.com/2013/10/the-great-uk-energy-debate-survation-take-a-detailed-look-for-the-mail-on-sunday/
As for the police - this is NEW information.
dupEd or rED ?
No wonder you want to talk about a picture from 2008.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1332704.ece
The one above seeks to ran people's preferences to the 3 energy policies that are being discussed.
David Cameron (lowest tarriff and cut green taxes in order to reduce bills) - 40%
Ed Miliband (freeze energy bills and reform energy market) - 33%
Nick Clegg (retain green taxes, increase efficiency, and subsidise fuel poverty) - 7%
Don't know - 20%
http://survation.com/2013/10/the-great-uk-energy-debate-survation-take-a-detailed-look-for-the-mail-on-sunday/
A nice companion to the thread header methinks. Just for Tim as he keeps missing it despite his love for polling.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1332704.ece
And of course Ed plans no changes to how much influence Unite has on policy and on choosing the leader.
An end to machine politics - yet Ed couldn't see 90% of the machine.
As readers will know because we always go on about it, we’re not very fussed about straight Yes/No polls this far out from the vote. We want to get right under the Scottish electorate’s skin, so for our second crowd-funded poll (as with the previous one) we asked for their opinion on all sorts of other stuff too.
But the media is boring and only cares about the simple bits. Headlines first, then.
——————————————————————————-
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
Yes 35%
No 43%
Undecided 20%
——————————————————————————-
Just an eight-point gap, which remains unchanged if you only include people who are at least 8/10 likely to vote – the numbers in that scenario move to Y37-N45-DK17. With the white paper still unpublished and 11 months to go, the Yes side needs a mere 4% swing to close the gap completely.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-gnats-chuff/
That means at least one thing in your post must be wrong - my guess would be that it's your "Ed Miliband is wrong about everything" theory.
I feel dirty.
David Cameron (lowest tarriff and cut green taxes in order to reduce bills) - 40%
Ed Miliband (freeze energy bills and reform energy market) - 33%
Nick Clegg (retain green taxes, increase efficiency, and subsidise fuel poverty) - 7%
Don't know - 20%
http://survation.com/2013/10/the-great-uk-energy-debate-survation-take-a-detailed-look-for-the-mail-on-sunday/
Once more with feeling just for tim:)))))))
Non story.
Just sraight to the squirrels - you might run out of nuts by noon at this rate.
The last member of the public to be summoned to the bar was former Sunday Express editor Sir John Junor in January 1957, after he published an article criticising politicians’ petrol allowances. He was rebuked by MPs for failing to ‘establish the truth of the article’ and not being willing to ‘admit its obvious implications’. He apologised and no further action was taken.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2477569/MPs-Plebgate-row-officer-trial-Detective-man-50-years-hauled-Commons.html
Wouldn't dare do that to a journalist these days!
Blinking hell - it'd take days to type them if nothing else. What a numpty using his own work email account. If nothing else he deserves the D Hat for that alone.
In response to this question "Ed Miliband has pledged to freeze energy bills by law for the first two years after the next election, whilst he restructures the energy market Which of the following best describes your view of this policy?", the only region that had a majority agreeing it would work was Scotland, in all the other regions less than 40% agreed.
The "con-man" question didn't ask if the respondents 'agree the policy is a con'; it asked "David Cameron has described Ed Miliband’s policy to freeze energy bills as a “con” Would you, or would you not, use this phrase yourself to describe the policy?" - 'would you use the phrase yourself' is a very different question.
The very last question amused me somewhat; the region most strongly against having a wind farm built in their local area was London. I imagine London is the least likely region to have a wind farm built in it.
I looked at the recent Populus data and just don't get their figures. For example, their dataset in the latest online poll is a sample of 2,018 respondents. Of these, 571 said they voted Con at the 2010 General Election, 386 said they voted Lab and 378 said they voted LibDem. Populus then weighted these so that the figures became 556, 369 and 390 respectively. That simply cannot be right - a weighting that results in more 2010 LibDems than Lab. At the 2010 election, the actual voting shares were 40%/28%/24% (England) and 36%/29%/23% (UK).
Of the notional 390 who 'voted' LibDem in 2010, Populus say that 89 should now be added to the Lab column. This group would more than account for the headline Lab majority over Con.
Is there something I have missed with the Populus weighting? Or could there be another explanation - such as very large numbers of 'shy' ex-Lab voters who 'misremember' voting LibDem last time - but who in fact actually voted Lab in 2010?
Either way, the Populus figures look odd to me.
Just in case, I looked at the Populus data for November 2008 (i.e. 1.5 years before the 2010 election, equivalent to where we are now). The pattern for 2005 LidDem 'voters' was very different indeed.
I'm not saying has not been a large switch from LibDem to Lab since 2010 - I'm just trying to understand the data that underpins the point.
Labour is in deep trouble.
Really ?
Ed capitulating to the unions can only be good for Ed
New evidence showing that Ed should never have capitulated to the unions can only be good for Ed.
PB Kinnocks, well aaalllllrrriiiiiggghhhhhhhtttt!
I prefer ITV, Twitter and Sky.
He really is like the boyfriend who has been jilted but keeps appearing on the scene hoping his ex will split from her current boyfriend to get back with him.
oh dear tim did you miss this from Survation;
Which of the three party leaders do you support the most in their approach to energy bills?
David Cameron (lowest tarriff and cut green taxes in order to reduce bills) - 40%
Ed Miliband (freeze energy bills and reform energy market) - 33%
Nick Clegg (retain green taxes, increase efficiency, and subsidise fuel poverty) - 7%
Don't know - 20%
http://survation.com/2013/10/the-great-uk-energy-debate-survation-take-a-detailed-look-for-the-mail-on-sunday/
You are a fairly new recruit. Another Tea Party Tory !
Another chance for Ed to prove how weak he is
More than 1,000 emails reveal how Unite chiefs subverted an inquiry ordered by the Labour leader into allegations that the union had rigged votes in Falkirk to get its nominee selected as the party’s parliamentary candidate.
The dossier of emails was passed to police last week. It reveals how Unite chiefs:
■ Told the union’s PR team to dig out “nasty stuff” on key Labour party figures
■ Wrote witnesses’ testimony withdrawing key evidence of alleged wrongdoing, with the new statements approved by the official implicated in the scandal
■ Tracked Labour investigators as they interviewed witnesses in Falkirk and boasted how one witness had told them to “F*** off”
■ Planned to use senior union and Labour figures to intimidate and disrupt Miliband’s investigation team.
In a nutshell, conman Ed duped by UNITE.
I'm pretty close to the seafront in Brighton in a pretty exposed position - talking the house here - so maybe I should be more concerned. We go down to the beach for storms when we can, but this could be one to stay in for.
I am not sure even if those words were uttered. Pure racism !
When will Ed release his report on the investigation – We’re still waiting.
It would just be yet another flog-off story, by and to the types who come out worst in the trust surveys.
Whatever the - justifiable - hits taken by the Beeb etc, people trust the alternative less. Plus there's a sense - arguably misguided - of ownership/accountability.
People feel the ground is shifting under them for a variety of reasons, but all boil down to losing power/control over their own circumstances... something they see mirrored at the national level.
pah, less than 2 weeks work for our tim.
One has resulted in police investigation handed to the CPS, HoC select committees and vindication, the other was swept under the carpet to keep the unions happy
It is also not worth a drop of political capital from the right wing. It will only send them down the path of the unelectable tea party esque loonism.
after Ed swiftly and decisively closed it down.
Will he stand up to Len this time?
'Unite are still telling Ed to keep quiet and stay in his box'
Ed's paymasters at Unite manage to humiliate him twice in a week,that's a record.
Unite 2 conman 0
Energy UK’s Angela Knight tells #murnaghan “price freezes give completely the wrong results - they have never worked and never will"
If you are in an industry - don't ever recruit Angela Knight to represent you it seems - formerly head of the British Bankers Association from April 2007 until April 2012 and since then head of Energy UK....
where next for her then.... Unite spokeswoman?
Most of those I talk with outside the UK use time-shifting to record their fav shows without them. Surely it can't be long before this really is the norm here as well?
One called the police in, the other sat on the evidence and deliberately did not inform the police.
Tim, R4 ran a protracted interview with Mitchell's daughter, Hannah this morning. Gist of it was that he was unable to defend himself properly because No. 10 made him rewrite his press release. It's pretty clear that he knew he had been stitched up by the Police and holds Cameron responsible for the faqct that he was forced to resign.
Forget Barcelona, you could have Hull today!!! He won't be applauded just for walking up to take a corner as we used to....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/sportvideo/footballvideo/10404073/Today-on-YouTube-Gareth-Bale-is-depicted-as-Forrest-Gump-by-Catalan-press-ahead-of-El-Classico.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/la-liga/10406535/Barcelona-2-Real-Madrid-1-match-report.html
Hysteria and ignorance, certainly, but not necessarily racism.