Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Listen to the PB / Polling Matters experts dissect polling on

1234568»

Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    steve hawkes
    ‏Verified account @steve_hawkes
    38m38 minutes ago

    Growing rumours of another big Labour defection this weekend

    *rubs hands*

    Big name or big number?
    Tom Watson is no longer a "big Labour defection" since he went on a diet and took up cycling.
    They don't need numbers but a big name would be good. Justine Greening and Yvette Cooper would make a splash
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez (unless you'd like to name another candidate?) which was not generally foreseen as a likely outcome at the time of the referendum. That fact.
    Most MPs have almost always been incompetent. We knew that back then.
    So it was never a bright idea to think they could successfully navigate such a dramatic change to our political and economic circumstances then, was it?
    Not many political actions are universally judged good with hindsight and you might well think that "remaining" could, judged on the same base, have the potential to be an even greater clusterfuck. The EU doesn't look like a very jolly place at the moment, does it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez t.
    Brexit - record employment, growing economy, falling deficit, but a few lefty luvvies fretting on twitter.

    vs

    Winter of discontent : widespread strikes, rubbish in the steets, bodies unburied, IMF loans, double digit inflation.

    Not even close.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TGOHF said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez t.
    Brexit - record employment, growing economy, falling deficit, but a few lefty luvvies fretting on twitter.

    vs

    Winter of discontent : widespread strikes, rubbish in the steets, bodies unburied, IMF loans, double digit inflation.

    Not even close.


    did Brexit happen while I was boiling the kettle?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez (unless you'd like to name another candidate?) which was not generally foreseen as a likely outcome at the time of the referendum. That fact.
    Most MPs have almost always been incompetent. We knew that back then.
    So it was never a bright idea to think they could successfully navigate such a dramatic change to our political and economic circumstances then, was it?
    Not many political actions are universally judged good with hindsight and you might well think that "remaining" could, judged on the same base, have the potential to be an even greater clusterfuck. The EU doesn't look like a very jolly place at the moment, does it.
    From here, actually it does.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez t.
    Brexit - record employment, growing economy, falling deficit, but a few lefty luvvies fretting on twitter.

    vs

    Winter of discontent : widespread strikes, rubbish in the steets, bodies unburied, IMF loans, double digit inflation.

    Not even close.


    did Brexit happen while I was boiling the kettle?
    Ishmael said "turned out".

    His tense not mine..
  • If more MPs defect from Labour, doesn't that bolster Corbyn's position, as most remaining Labour MPs will be overtly supporting him?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez (unless you'd like to name another candidate?) which was not generally foreseen as a likely outcome at the time of the referendum. That fact.
    Most MPs have almost always been incompetent. We knew that back then.
    So it was never a bright idea to think they could successfully navigate such a dramatic change to our political and economic circumstances then, was it?
    Not many political actions are universally judged good with hindsight and you might well think that "remaining" could, judged on the same base, have the potential to be an even greater clusterfuck. The EU doesn't look like a very jolly place at the moment, does it.
    From here, actually it does.
    Now you're doing your Nelson trick again
  • Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Mr. Slackbladder, Starmer and Cooper are the ones that probably matter most. Well, them and Watson, but Watson's in a uniquely tricky position.

    Could Starmer really go, even if he really wanted to, just as Brexit comes to the cliff edge?

    Watson would be a DefCon 5 event. And would make unions start to consider their positioning.
    Watson can't go. If he does, his replacement as Deputy Leader gets voted on, which means a Corbynite (and God help them, possibly Chris Williamson). He is uniquely situated in that his defection would actually cause severe irreparable harm to the Party. He must be acutely aware of that fact and the implied responsibility it places on him to stay, so my guess is he'll only leave if at least another hundred go first.
    Doesn’t that cut both ways? If he leaves, another hundred would be forced to follow.
    Probably; there was a tweet posted earlier that suggested he was holding back the dam.

    I guess it's also possible he knows he has a lot of pull - could be he fancies leading the new party and knows he could make it into a serious force. We shall see.
    I guess he's calculating which group he wants to end up leading. He's in a reasonable position if Lab kick Corbyn out before the party implodes, but I'm not sure what the conditions for that are. If JC's going to stay and/or the party's going to implode, he'd be a decent bet for the new lot (ie Indy Lab rather than TIG, I'd imagine)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    If the argument used for REF2 was this is the final deal, it's the best we can do, do you want to accept it or not? Then you are not disrespecting or cheating anyone by asking the question again, you are simply asking for confirmation of the deal.

    However its impossible to work out what needs to be on the other side of May's Deal and that I think makes any referendum impossible - as there are people who clearly don't know enough or care enough about the consequences of No Deal for anyone sane to keep it on the agenda.

    I disagree with para 1. Parliament trashing the Deal and then asking the people, "It's terrible, are you sure you wouldn't rather Remain?" is highly disrespectful to the original referendum.

    But I agree with para 2. No formulation in any case works.

    Either way, detail or big picture, REF2 stinks.
    I can never see the word "respect" these days without a. mentally adding the word "innit" and b. thinking of G Galloway, but leaving that aside why would you respect an abstract thing like a referendum result, rather than the people behind it, and why would trusting them to be able to change their minds when the facts change not be respecting them?
    what "facts" are these?
    The fact that brexit has turned out to be the biggest national clusterfuck since at least Suez t.
    Brexit - record employment, growing economy, falling deficit, but a few lefty luvvies fretting on twitter.

    vs

    Winter of discontent : widespread strikes, rubbish in the steets, bodies unburied, IMF loans, double digit inflation.

    Not even close.


    did Brexit happen while I was boiling the kettle?
    Ishmael said "turned out".

    His tense not mine..
    He should have said "even trying to do Brexit...."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Roger said:

    steve hawkes
    ‏Verified account @steve_hawkes
    38m38 minutes ago

    Growing rumours of another big Labour defection this weekend

    *rubs hands*

    Big name or big number?
    Tom Watson is no longer a "big Labour defection" since he went on a diet and took up cycling.
    They don't need numbers but a big name would be good. Justine Greening and Yvette Cooper would make a splash
    Kendall. Make her mind up time.
  • If more MPs defect from Labour, doesn't that bolster Corbyn's position, as most remaining Labour MPs will be overtly supporting him?

    Until John McD final turns on him.

    I am beginning to wonder...
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    If more MPs defect from Labour, doesn't that bolster Corbyn's position, as most remaining Labour MPs will be overtly supporting him?

    Until John McD final turns on him.

    I am beginning to wonder...
    Are blood sports making a comeback. Is anyone making a book?
  • Scott_P said:
    Kyle? Isn't he trying to work with leadership on an amendment for a 2nd vote on May's deal?

    Why would he jump now? Unless the whole arrangement is off.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Scott_P said:
    Kyle? Isn't he trying to work with leadership on an amendment for a 2nd vote on May's deal?

    Why would he jump now? Unless the whole arrangement is off.
    My guess would be, Corbyn's had a look at the proposal and doesn't like it very much.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Scott_P said:
    Kyle? Isn't he trying to work with leadership on an amendment for a 2nd vote on May's deal?

    Why would he jump now? Unless the whole arrangement is off.
    He denied it on WATO

    Sounds like speculation.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Kyle? Isn't he trying to work with leadership on an amendment for a 2nd vote on May's deal?

    Why would he jump now? Unless the whole arrangement is off.
    My guess would be, Corbyn's had a look at the proposal and doesn't like it very much.
    You mean because would involve extracting himself from the top of the fence.

    Honestly, how much longer can his young followers fall for this crap. He's Lexit to his fingertips.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    steve hawkes
    ‏Verified account @steve_hawkes
    38m38 minutes ago

    Growing rumours of another big Labour defection this weekend

    *rubs hands*

    Is it Rachael Swindon?
    WHO!!!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If Kyle goes then a stampede would follow . His amendment being supported by the Labour front bench is the last chance for Corbyn to avoid a huge exodus .
  • Mr. 67, tautology, you can't have a small exodus.

    That said, I do agree that Corbyn's fate may depend on which way he jumps.

    Ironically, the split could help him. If he jumps to, and gets, a second referendum that may assist him significantly.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Roger said:

    Kermode and Mayo might be irritating at times but at least they can be entertaining and Kermode has seen a lot of films. Edith Bowman and Clarisse Loughrey are not only dismal critics but I'm starting to doubt that they've even seen the films they're critiquing.

    I agree with Roger (for the first time ever, I think).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Go, Liz!

    From her RTs it is clear she isn't a happy bunny. Yet she says she has "no intention" of jumping. Politician speak for still thinking about it.
  • Mr. B2, but would she be a Tigger, or join the Popular Front?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Mr. B2, but would she be a Tigger, or join the Popular Front?

    Surely obvious. Tigger in Chief. Provided she is quick.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This thread has now RESIGNED THE PARTY for a new one.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,493

    Reminds me of Farage when he repeated a well known anti-Semitic trope.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1098877152416722944

    I'm glad I'm not in the situation of having anything public to declare about any family, but to my mind, it cannot be right to censor references that in other circumstances would be valid and in the public interest to make. I believe the same about criticism of the State of Israel. There is no doubt that a lot of such criticism is motivated by anti semitism, but surely no country (or organisation, or individual, or family if the family's decisions have wide reaching effects) can or should be immune from scrutiny. Apart from anything else, it is very unfair to the supposed beneficiaries of such censorship, as it has the potential to put them in an invidious position.
  • Scott_P said:
    Coincidentally, I went to Streatham Hill this afternoon to do the 1617 train via Tulse Hill eastbound (last year there was a morning train Tulse Hill to Streatham Hill westbound).
This discussion has been closed.