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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Led by Donkeys” billboards probably won’t stop Brexit but
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Led by Donkeys” billboards probably won’t stop Brexit but they’ll undermine many political reputations
In 2017 the movie,Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, won a host of awards and was a good demonstration of the power of this form of advertising. It is in relative terms cheap and can be focussed geographically.
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These have done well on that score - possibly ironically given they started off on social media!
PS - first?
One reputation in particular has crashed in the intervening period: that of Boris Johnson. His popularity has taken a swallow dive. That preceded this poster campaign.
The Fox one for instance is taken out of context from an interview where he says it should be easy but ... 'a deal would probably not be easy in practice. “The only reason that we wouldn’t come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics,” Fox said.'
As I say though, for the thicker end of the argument they are catnip.
If these billboards mean that we never hear from these chancers again, they will have achieved something.
Unfortunately, it looks as if these chancers will get what they want and we'll have to hear them explaining why it wasn't their fault / all the fault of the wicked Europeans / saboteurs etc - that is when prats like David Davis can tear themselves away from earning money as consultants for JCBamford.
And then there is also this, from the official Vote leave campaign:
"Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden step - we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave."
Reading this, it seems they're a guerilla outfit who are pasting their own posters on other people's billboards. Which means they probably haven't been through an ASA-approved compliance process!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/billboard-campaign-reminds-voters-of-mps-brexit-promises
https://libertarianweb.wordpress.com/2019/01/18/the-twitter-billboard-campaign-a-new-low-in-fake-news/
"Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden step - we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave." -
We were always going to be at a disadvantage in the long run, but speed and élan could have overcome it to a great extent. After all, nobody on the EU side thought Leave were going to win.
Unfortunately, neither did Leave.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/15/award-most-incompetent-minister-chris-grayling-liam-fox-john-crace-digested-week
It's brave of him to talk about it.
"The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards."
Michael Gove.
My biggest bet for next Tory leader, that is. He's my man. He is the guy who TM will appoint Brexit Czar after we have left the EU and are into transition. The guy who will handle the trade talks. The guy who will take over in a virtual coronation from TM in 2021. The most talented politician of his generation. Britain's next prime minister.
I'm closing out.
And given that the polls now seem to be showing that Remain has a lead it appears that some of the public have changed their mind.
It has certainly been a revelation to me - and I admit that I have perhaps been naive in this - how utterly ignorant so many senior politicians are and how unwilling to learn they have been.
Trouble is they were Tarot cards, and all should death and starvation from lack of fresh salads.
A grifters' charter, is it ?
They knew they could not deliver what had been promised.
All the words were said by the idiots/charlatans/fantasists involved
There was a press conference and instant action from the BoE.
Don't you remember?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/15/brexit-lies-curry-vote-leave-restaurant-industry
...I also bear some responsibility, as the head of an organisation that urged our 150,000 members and 12,000 restaurants to vote leave.
At the time, the Bangladesh Caterers Association was worried about an average of four restaurants closing a week, rising rents and soaring business rates. Both Priti Patel and Boris Johnson approached us to collaborate with and support the Save Our Curry Houses campaign set up by Vote Leave. They said if we were to support the leave campaign, they would ensure we were able to get more chefs from south Asia by relaxing immigration rules with lower salary thresholds to hire staff from outside the EU.
And we made the mistake of believing them...
But context, nuance, etc...
Nor is your picture of the difficulties of effecting a short term fix correct. The business lobby across the EU will be crying out on 29th March for the can to be kicked down the road while longer term arrangements can be thrashed out.
But since when has Rees-Mogg been fair?
Last time I checked the BoE was independent.
Also, what districting is that map using?
(Of course if David H is right that the Article 50 wording allows the Withdrawal Agreement to be concluded even after leaving, then that slightly alters things. Even then it seems very unlikely that that would give us much grace, and in practice the EU would just say: 'Sign the deal that's on the table, pay up, and then we'll talk').
"I tell you now, and please trust me on this, on the day after we vote to Leave, the European Union will hold all the cards. They are much bigger and more powerful than us, much better at negotiating, and they need our trade far less than we need theirs."
He'd have looked a total plonker, wouldn't he, saying that as the Chairman of Vote Leave?
None of which is/are true.
Most of the current mess was delivered by leaders long ago who incrementally took us into something almost impossible to get out of without our wholehearted consent.
Lisbon would've been a good opportunity for the electorate to indicate its position, but Brown decided reneging upon a manifesto commitment was wiser than holding a referendum.
1) The original Common Market may have been primarily about facilitating business and commerce across the continent but it has changed beyond recognition since then. The European Union in its present guise is above all a political project, with the full political will of its powerful core thrown squarely behind its ever more intrusive institutions.
2) In the event of a chaotic No Deal Brexit, the business lobby across the EU will be up in arms about the damage being caused to businesses across the continent - the resulting pressure will force Brussels to sue for a deal with the UK in very short order.
"My message is clear," Sajid Javid told the Times: "If you have supported terrorist organisations abroad I will not hesitate to prevent your return.""
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47248555
On the topic of JRM, I hadn't realised until today that his seat isn't entirely impregnable. Labour-held in 2005 (well, not quite the same seat, but projected) and substantially under the combined Labour/Lib Dem vote in 2010. He's piled up votes since then, but in the event of a no-deal disaster, they might just as easily vanish again.
1. It's impossible to get out of the EU. That is not true. It is possible to do so provided we are willing to accept the consequences and costs of doing so. What is not possible is to leave the EU while keeping some of its advantages or doing so without any adverse consequences/costs.
2. Membership of the EU and the various treaties and changes since we first joined has been pretty much on the manifestos of all the major parties (and the only party which had Leave in its manifesto - Labour in 1983 - lost heavily). And all those treaties and changes were voted on by our MP, who we elected to power.
So under our Parliamentary system of government our MPs did have our consent.
If what you mean is that there should have been some additional specific popular consent - something akin to the Irish votes on new treaties - yes, that was missing and it might well have been wise - with hindsight - to have had that. But that is not how politics has ever really been done in this country. So under the system we have had in place for a very long time consent was given.
It turns out that that was not enough. But maybe it was not the lack of consent which was the problem but, possibly, that our leaders should have explained what the EU was and we had a genuine discussion about its costs and benefits rather than making it the scapegoat for all our ills.
As we are now learning, though, inserting plebiscitary democracy into the middle of a Parliamentary democracy is not without its problems.
In retrospect, too many took the EU and its advantages for granted and forgot how to argue for them. That does not mean, though, that departure - let alone departure on bad terms - is the right thing to do.
RIchard Nixon's speechwriter has died.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/obituaries/raymond-k-price-jr-dead.html
Why would they abandon it at their moment of triumph?
They were terrified of the result. It was exactly the opposite of what BoZo wanted. A narrow defeat would have made him leader within week. Now it will never happen.
Bummer...
Miss Cyclefree, when the Government gives away power it was entrusted with by the electorate, and does so on a continual basis without any reference to the electorate, I do think that's a serious problem.
Other decisions can be changed (lowering or raising taxes etc) but once a power is given away, it's gone for a very long time and, as we're seeing, regained only with the greatest difficulty.
The problem is the political consensus and Westminster centre ground travelled ever further from common ground with the electorate. We see the same, writ small and in a far less serious area, with the great and glorious virtue of spending billions in foreign aid.
Yes the EU Constitution was in manifestos but it was done so with a clear commitment by all major parties to have a referendum on it. After the French and Dutch rejected it though the Treaty was rebranded and rushed through without a referendum in a clear breach of the manifesto commitments.
Had Labour pledged to ratify the Treaty without a referendum then that'd be fair enough but they pledged one thing and then did the opposite.
no change there then
I guess the saving grace for Michael - and even then only in the unlikely event of me being right about his glittering future - is that he will get the chance to redeem himself.
This after all would explain why a Republican controlled Congress didn't pass funding for his wall for two years, but as soon as the Democrats won the mid-terms it became urgent enough to warrant a record duration government shutdown.
https://www.indy100.com/article/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-billboard-led-by-donkeys-campaign-north-islington-8775351