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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The economy could be growing too far and too fast
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The economy could be growing too far and too fast
It seems a long time ago that the opposition, members of the media and economic commentators were speculating about the possibility of a triple-dip recession. In fact, it’s in only six months that the economic debate has changed markedly. Gone are the arguments about flat-lining and the need for stimulus and instead the agenda’s moved on to the cost of living.
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Fear not, Monday's hurricane should take care of that.
I think it is very possible the Lib Dems could pick up maybe 6 seats of the Tories if UKIP do do well at the general election.
At the end of the day the Lib Dems have the more active members in those battle grounds. Labour showed at the last election how you can defend a very unpopular government IF you have the people willing to stick the hours in on the ground. The Lib Dems don't have that throughout the country but they DO in the areas against the Tories where they need it.
The continent is, if anything, slowing down again and it seems unlikely that a debt crisis can be postponed indefinitely there. China is also on the verge of a major bubble issue.
In short too far, too fast growth is unlikely to be a problem that Osborne is unduly troubled with. Although next year's growth figures will look much better year on year I think we will do well to maintain a moderate pace of growth, let alone a gallop.
By the election I think the government will be saying they have halved the deficit and that the job is only half done. There will be very little money for tax wheezes of any substance although no doubt we will get the usual fluff and certainly very little money for new spending.
If real wages are also on the up the government will have an extremely good story to tell economically but then Major had that in 1997 too.
“Weatherman Michael Fish, who famously failed to predict the 1987 storm, urged people to keep checking the forecasts as the storm path could change”
It’s official – the storm is heading straight for us..!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10405947/Storm-forecasts-can-change-last-minute-warns-Michael-Fish.html
Betting PostF1: here's the pre-race piece for India, including a tip:
enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/india-pre-race.html
I've backed Webber for the win at 6, hedged at 2.5. Whilst Vettel's rightly the favourite, I think Webber's also in a pretty good position.
At least Mike is presumably now regretting his "pure fantasy" remark about the Tory chances of a majority.
I remember some fantastic comments on PB about 1.5-2% growth the last quarter.But in the end it was a realistic 0.8.We`ll see what happens in the next quarter.
I am a bit surprised that such "experts" do not take into account another very valuable source of data.
The local election results !
OK, they may not occur with a statistically unbiased distribution. But that can largely be taken out by only considering the swings.
Also, the presence of two parties in government is taken care of by the simple knowledge that people voting in these local by-elections are aware of the existence of the coalition.
I think the aggregate data of real votes over the years is a valuable source of data. I would also add a weighting. The nearer a date is to the next GE, the weights given would be higher.
In other words, 2014 votes will be more "valuable" than 2011 votes !
I am sure there is sufficient data to go back many, many, years.
Like I said yesterday, the government/ONS need to shift the creative industries out of services and into production as we produce tangible goods in the industry, but on a digital level. I create assets that are used in a game, it is production, not services. That would show a better rebalance than what we see now.
Your opinion is and has been shown to be worthless.
This time they've not chosen a candidate and won't until sometime next year, the 2005/2010 candidate has said he's not interested, and their GE budget is a rounding error close to zero: their focus is on defending their borough councillors, all of whom are up for election the same day.
John Major wins again over the nincompoop Captain !
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/04/this-isnt-the-first-time-ian-duncan-smith-has-exaggerated-life-experiences/
No comment !
German recession - 7.0% fall over 4Q
UK recession - 7.4% fall over 5Q
Our recession was deeper and longer, plus our we had the deficit of the US with a recession deeper than Germany. This idea that we're not doing as well as other nations is a load of old crap that Labour love to throw about. Other countries didn't have the same structural problems we did (and still have). We lost GDP in the recession that will never come back because it was in the financial sector, it means other sectors need to grow in order to make up the difference. The US and Germany did not have these problems, they did not have to change the nature of their economies in order to make it back, for them the bounce back was easy.
The US in particular had a much shallower recession so any direct comparison is not even worth looking at, which is why Balls seems so intent on making one.
Labour left the nation unprepared and undefended against the worst recession to hit since the 1930's. Worse still given the nature of it, the effects are still felt today since two of the high street banks are in part public ownership. It's been 5 years since LBG and RBS were nationalised and the government have sold just 6% of their stake in the smaller bank. Labour's box ticking culture that led to regulatory failures has made the job of recovering even harder since two out of the big four have had to restructure their operations significantly which has hit lending to businesses large and small.
Douglas Alexander
Ed Balls
Yvette Cooper
Michael Dugher
Caroline Flint
Harriet Harman
Sadiq Khan
Ivan Lewis
Gloria De Piero
Rachel Reeves
Chuka Umunna
Rosie Winterton
Remember, Lehmann Brothers, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freedie Mac, UBS, ING, Citicorp.....
They were all Labour's fault.
Incompatible probabilities:
•Pr(Lab majority) = 15% & Pr(Lab largest party) = 12% are not compatible.
•How can Lab have a bigger chance of a majority than being the largest party?
Fair cop. These figures are logically incompatible. Clearly I need to revise the method to ensure these are fully consistent, and I will do.
An academic who simply did not do his homework. Very poor and sub-standard.
Labour allowed RBS to get too big and it forced Lloyds TSB down the aisle with HBOS. Labour's regulations failed after Brown's big idea of tripartite crap. The banks took a dump on the UK economy and Labour cheered them on while they did it and then bailed them out when the going got tough. Labour, socialising losses and privatising profit. When Barings went bankrupt, it went bankrupt, it's shareholders didn't get bailed out and it's board didn't get nice fat pension packets at the expense of the taxpayer. Labour made the taxpayers pay the price for the failure of their regulatory system thought up by Brown, Balls and Miliband.
No Dr The Honourable Tristram 'I've got a PhD from Cambridge you know Hunt then?
What with Education being such a Labour strong suit and so important to 2010 Lib Dems......
I'm sure its just 'new boy on Front Bench'.....nothing more than that......
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/tristrams-handy-if-ed-miliband-loses-labours-love-8891653.html
It's also worth mentioning the £153bn of unnecessary deficits Brown ran as Chancellor in the years preceding the crash.
"We have a candidate for strangest red card of the season, as Burnley mascot Bertie Bee is sent off for handing the linesman his glasses during the top-of-the-table Championship clash with Queens Park Rangers."
trying to use past performance in an unbiased manner.
doesn't make it accurate, necessarily, but its not sloppy
A good lecturer would give a student tips on improvement, and mark innovative work highly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/10404852/If-only-Id-given-Nick-Clegg-the-beating-he-needed.html
Wind, West Gale F8 soon increasing Severe gale F9 with gusts to 85mph by midnight veering southwest then south Storm F10 to severe storm F11 with gusts to F12 for a time. Decreasing Gale F8 to Severe Gale F9 and veering West by dawn becoming Southerly F7 to Gale F8 by afternoon with gusts to 60mph
I've got my early runners for both parties already backed and I'm not going to fiddle with it yet as news cycles come and go. Cruz was brilliant in the filibuster and deserved better, but lack of support from the RINOs in such an important battle this far out means he'll definitely lack the squishy vote later on.
Thanks for another interesting post. Rising interest rates on mortgages (and it's still probably at least 6 months and more likely a year away) will take some of the froth out of the housing market but the increasing costs will mostly affect those who are financially astute and on the very lowest life time trackers - probably those who can most afford the increase anyway.
More importantly savings rates will start going up in time for the election and the most enthusiastic voters - pensioners - will see their income going up from saving too. Expect to see lots of government huffing at big financial institutions which do not increase their savings rates. I would imagine this would benefit the coalition.
I would expect the deficit to unwind quite quickly as companies open their investment spigots - first VAT receipts and income tax then eventually corporation tax receipts will rise. The state owned banks will be returned to the private sector.
My personal experience (admittedly limited) is that private sector capital spending and mergers and acquisition activity is going up as well.
#bbceurofooty
Matthew12341324: I feel for Bale, he looks like a very expensive fish out of water.
Come home Gareth - the Lane will welcome you back any day!!
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/22/yes-he-khan-sadiqs-a-great-33-1-bet-for-london-mayor/
Real Madrid forward Gareth Bale is booked - and it's not for diving.
The former Tottenham man and Barcelona defender Gerard Pique both go in with high feet but Bale catches Pique's and goes into the book.
Hmm... his mind must be wandering back to THFC.... Barcelona or Hull....
Nick P said:
"That's reasonably easy to establish factually. If someone (andrea? AndyJS?) has the time to list Con/Lab marginals (say anything with the gap <5%) in sequence of strength of LibDem vote, we'd have a clearer idea of what we're talking about (just don't have time myself). It seems likely that LD->Lab tactical switching is at least as high (probably much higher) here than in LD-held seats."
I'm working on that at the moment, unless anyone else has already done it.
Bloomberg was a registered Democrat. There was no visible way through the dem primary process for him so he switched parties. The Republicans welcomed him, seeing money and an high profile R win - which they got. Although he became nominally Independent by quitting the party, his name was on the Republican ballot line in his third victory.
So yes, Independents with a good record. No, Bloomberg not your best pick as an example
So, if immigration is not the excuse, and given that they doubled expenditure, that doesn't leave much, does it? Labour's running of education was an unmitigated disaster. Thank goodness for Michael Gove.
Incidentally, the focus on Free Schools by Labour and the vested interests is providing such useful cover for his other reforms (notably the explosion in the number of academies) - which are all going through with virtually no opposition - that I'm beginning to wonder if this wasn't one of the principal aims.
Turnout 59.48%
Social Democrats 20.46% / 50 seats (-6 compared to 2010)
ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens) 18.65 / 47 (+47)
Communists 14.91/ 33 (+7)
TOP09 (Tradition Responsibility Prosperity 09) 11.99/ 26 (-15)
ODS (Civic Democratic Party) 7.72/ 16 (-37)
Usvit (Dawn of Direct Democracy) 6.88/ 14 (+14)
Christian Democrats 6.77/ 14 (+14)
ANO is led by an multi-millionaire entrepreneur
GET INVOLVED - #bbceurofooty
Like a Villas-Boas: Only when they play together can you see the significant gap in quality between Messi/Ronaldo & Bale.
The ex-Tottenham forward hasn't been at his best today, it's got to be said - yet to complete a 90 minutes for Real Madrid.
Grant Shipcott: I honestly didn't even realise Bale was playing until he was subbed. Anonymous.
Richard in Putney: Bale wasted on the right wing. Perez's transfer plan looking flawed already, already have the best left wing in the world so buy the second best. Then play him on the right.
If LAB win GE2015 then the mayoral contest will take place a year later - just when the problems start to occur. The Tory would be in with good chance.
Even after Labour's education disaster our schools are still better than those of Somalia and Afganistan.
p.s. Championship Table makes good reading tonight.
In the 1980s and early 90s it was a better game than RU, now it looks embarrassing.
If England RU played half their games at Old Trafford, Elland Road, Anfield etc it would finish off RL.
If you backed Webber to win at 6 (reasoning/comments here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/india-pre-race.html) then you could now hedge for a zero risk (but obviously smaller potential profit) bet, as he's fallen to 4.7.
I do think Vettel's the likeliest winner, but Webber is in good shape.
On-topic: the eurozone will either become a nation-state or cease to be in the next few years. I imagine either will lead to economic turmoil as the egotistical edifice crumbles, or the EU tries to force disparate realms into the bland uniformity of a bureaucratic empire.
Will hopefully not have the same fate.
Still I struggle to have much sympathy for a habitual cheat.
Great stuff and because Burnley is going to be an AWS Ali Campbell won't be LAB candidate at
GE2015.
Next week Millwall
And I'm increasingly tempted by the idea that London should be allowed to do as it will while being used as a cash cow for the rest of the country.
But immigration has clearly led to a lowering of educational standards elsewhere - deprived schools not being improved by an influx of deprived non-English speaking pupils in Bradford or Barnsley.
Of course the subsequent lowering of educational standards in such places is then used as a justification for even more immigrants "our teenagers are too thick, don't know how to read and write properly, are too lazy etc so we need to have immigrants as workers".
And we have a negative feedback loop.
Want to put a bet on a mate who is running (to show support rather than anything else as I'm not allowed to donate!)
(And UBS is Swiss, while ING is Dutch. But they might both be in Cornwall for all you know...)
London has a much higher rate of religious observance than the rest of the country (due to its very high ethnic minority population), but religion simply isn't mentioned in the articles. Considering the high number of Faith Schools in the capital, this is simply laughable.
Also not mentioned in the articles are private schools. I think they've been excluded, with all the talk of GCSEs.
However, there is a trend (certainly in Catholic circles) for the rich to send their children to State schools as they are so good, thus pushing their standards higher still. Harriet Harman, Tony Blair and Nick Clegg being the most famous examples.
The articles don't mention it, but one reason for superior performance is the sheer diversity of provision in the Capital, private or state, faith or community, diplomatic or whatever-the-new-thing-is-today. All within a fairly small area so that there is genuine choice.
League tables, of course, have brought what previously anecdotal to the surface.
He must be under warranty.
AFAIK the vast majority, even of senior police officers didn't go to such "educational" establishments.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
I am all ready to post.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dE0wZTMyZW1nYko1TE15MDVJVF8zYXc#gid=0
It uses the conventional top 100 Labour targets, excluding targets from parties other than the Conservatives, (which gives 83 Tory seats).
For instance, at the bottom of the list is Basildon South & Thurrock East. This is because the Conservative majority over Labour is 5,977 compared to a LD vote of 5,772. The ratio is almost 1 because Labour would have to win virtually all the LD votes to overturn the Tory majority.
Seats like Warrington South and Plymouth Sutton&Devonport are much higher up the list than they are in the conventional target list because of the high LD votes in those seats.
Is there some reason Labour are considered favourites to win most seats in the 2014 Euros but not most votes? They both got the same seats last time on similar votes, so why are the bookies so sure there is an electoral bias?
I've another just chosen Lab PPC for you...Weston-super-Mare: Tim Taylor
@Sean Fear
they all sound right wing with the exception of Social Democrats and Communists. But even them are probabloy right wing
Seriously...Dawn of Direct Democracy fights for direct democracy...their candidates include former Christian Democrats and Public Affairs (a party that won seats last time but seem disappeared now) members.
ODS was the current main ruling party. They are among Tory's allies in EU Parliament.
TOP09 was born as a free market split of Christian Democrats
ANO is a sort of populist outfit campaigning against corruption and co. As they are led by an entrepreneur, I guess they are free market friendly. They are open to collaborate with everybody on paper except for the Commies.
C 29 (+2)
L 37 (=)
UKIP 16 (-1)
LD 10 (=)
Poll not reported on PB or UKPR before today so is this it?
https://twitter.com/Survation
Labour criticises government's 'false' data on free schools http://gu.com/p/3jq4p/tf
Fair play to Labour trying to carry on the same tune, but it's not a very serious point.
Sounds grim outside already. I hope the winds aren't too bad here. I remember walking the hound when the weather was comparably bad a few years ago (a tree had been snapped in two by the wind opposite the house). That was an experience.