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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it tak
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn
The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woesCon: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)Lab: 250 (-12)SNP: 39 (+4)LD: 16 (+4)Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz
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If she was falling behind Labour in the polls there would be increasing pressure for her to stand aside to allow a new leader to pursue a new course.
This is important:
In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.
As Paul Waugh has tweeted:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024
5) Whisper it very carefully, Mrs May might not actually be that popular
First of all there’s the polling that shows her popularity is equally down to her not being Jeremy Corbyn nor would she be losing the majority of the Tory gains from the Lib Dems that her election strategist found, a PM with polling leads of 25% really shouldn’t be doing that.
People compare her to Mrs Thatcher, but what has Mrs May really achieved that is comparable to Mrs Thatcher had prior to her 1983 and 1987 landslides? No war won, no massive reform of the UK, so far only a slogan, ‘Brexit means Brexit.’
Plus Mrs May’s a crap campaigner, no wonder she’s frightened to meet real voters or to debate Corbyn, given her failure to consistently crush him at PMQs. Macavity May hid during the EU referendum, as PM she can’t hide during a general election campaign. Mrs May is a crap campaigner, this is a narrative I and others expect to develop, especially if she refuses to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
*By 'scare', I of course mean that she's trying to persuade them to put the country's interests first.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095314075893067776?s=19
MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.
But we are where we, and the PM has to go through this absurd charade, damaging the economy in the process, because MPs can't and never will agree on any alternative to the negotiated deal.
Less than a week until testing commences. Barely a month until the first race. I hope the Red Bull's fastest by a mile.
*A typo I spotted, but I quite liked it, so kept it in.
https://twitter.com/FTPressOffice/status/1095319845665673216
But I wouldn’t be surprised by a smaller turnaround this time, one that puts Corbyn in Downing Street.
If he wants to become PM it is essential that he avoids looking like one in waiting. Much of his words and actions make perfect sense when viewed in this light.
Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn.
Good. No more of MPs hiding from the consequences of their vote.
Vote against, you are specifically voting for a no-deal crash exit.
* That someone could be the EU, the DUP, the ERG, Labour backbenchers, Theresa May, etc.
Bring it on.
While size of poll reduces random errors, it can never compensate for incorrect assumptions on weighting.
As it is, that yougov megapoll has a 4 seat Tory gain. That surely is MOE too?
https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/1095290950992228352?s=19
His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941
I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.
She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.
I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....
Does going on a persons podcast immediately mean they should be tarred with the same brush and vice versa the host?
There was some stupid non-profit that a few months ago did a crazy "six degrees of Kevin Bacon" type thing that tried to make weird smear that because the likes of Joe Rogan have had people like Milo on, he is some alt-right personality.
I would disagree strongly with his views and his politics but to be sacked for them is outrageous. I don't know what, if anything, this says about our universities in general but the University of Liverpool specifically should be ashamed and I hope he takes them to the cleaners.
Except don't bring it on.
"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."
Which is broadly true, but unfortunately leans heavily into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, to the point where there isn't really much doubt about his true motivations for making the comments int he first place.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michael-bennet-could-be-the-answer-to-the-question-every-democrat-is-asking/2019/02/11/4e90832a-2e2d-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html
Seems a bit unlikely, but probably would have a slightly better chance than (say) Hickenlooper.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/429560-poll-biden-leads-2020-dem-race-followed-by-sanders-and-harris
Historians have disagreed about Napoleon's intentions in these actions, as well as his personal and political feelings about the Jewish community. Some have said he had political reasons but did not have sympathy for the Jews. His actions were generally opposed by the leaders of monarchies in other countries. After his defeat by Great Britain, a counter-revolution swept many of these countries and they restored discriminatory measures against the Jews.
i) ERG - Want a hard hard Brexit
ii) DUP - Hard Brexit is fine, May's deal is not for them.
iii) Corbyn & Labour tribalists - Tories own hard Brexit
iv) The SNP - 2nd ref here we come
v) Kate Hoey
vi) Labour people's voters - "I told you so" card...
Which means Tory remainers might come round, but they might not be enough...
Doesn't that mean you've just leaned into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories yourself?
This is just a control freak reminding them who is REALLY in control.
It's like questioning whether exactly six million people died in the Holocaust. Sure, there's doubt, and the real figure might be lower. But why is it important to debate that? In the same way, why is he so interested in the Rothschilds' (specifically) contribution to current social structures?
With all the bluster of Tyson Fury.
Just what is needed.
Mrs May is clearly going to engineer a last gasp Deal or No Deal decision for MPs.
Labour have made their 'compromise offer' knowing that she cannot and will not go for it. This gives them a solid alibi for No Deal. If she takes us over the cliff there will be little ambiguity as to where the blame lies - the Tories. It could also collapse the government as the Grieve types defect.
If she squeaks the Deal through, fine, because this too could collapse the government courtesy of the DUP.
If she fails to get the deal through but chickens out of No Deal (as she almost certainly will) what then? Revocation? Great, rips the Tories apart, probably collapses the government. Second Referendum? Ditto if it has Remain on it, which it will probably have to in order to get approved.
And if she does what I think her true fallback plan is - calls a 'back me or sack me' snap election - absolutely fantastic. Offer Re-neg + Ref2 in the Labour manifesto and a good chance of sweeping to power.
Yes, Labour are in a fantastic place. About the only thing they could do to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory is give in to the pressure to back a Ref2 now. They need to make sure that the ONLY way a Ref (and thus Remain) can happen is via the election of a Labour government.
The future relationship is still to be determined and it seems clear that it won't be determined by Theresa May.
[Edit: Or rather, apparently, for being suspected of holding such opinions.]
If what you say is your job? That's different.
If a BBC New host goes on an antisemitic rant live on the 6:00 News then would you say "well it's only something they're saying"?
It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?
Surely worth a shot.
Some of those who voted against him in 2016 will have left the party, likewise those most disappointed by his subsequent failings.
Besides there's not enough time now before Brexit day.
But loyalty is to be admired to be fair, no matter the cause
That said, I agree with Endillion that people who keep banging on about the Rothschilds make me uneasy too, in exactly the same way as people who go on about fundamentalist Muslims - I don't necessarily disagree with the comments (and in particular it is ridiculous to say that Americans criticising AIPAC make them anti-semitic), but any kind of obsession suggests a deeper motivation.
West Indies 14 - 3
Having said that it is also true that if I lived in the constituencies of say Yvette Cooper, Jess Philips, Luciana Berger or Hilary Benn I would also find it impossible not to vote for them. The clash between the awfulness of parties and the excellence of individuals gives rise to real dilemmas.
Actually.. I think that applies to all polling at the moment. Seeing as no-one has a scooby what the country is going to look like in six weeks' time, any voting intention or leader rating poll is likely to be rendered out of date very quickly when people's ill-informed reckons about Brexit (on both side) are compared with facts.