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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leading Corbynista calls for Labour to introduce US-style prim

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:


    The border crossing between NI and RoI is currently unmanned except by lots of ANPR cameras, with police and customs officers responding to incidents, tipoffs and vehicles of interest away from the actual border.

    A new technological system would utilise exactly the same physical infrastructure as already exists now, just with a customs and tariffs system connected to it.

    Here is a former senior British customs officer’s opinion that it’s something easily workable if the political will was there to do it.
    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/soft-borders-work-lets-start-with-ireland/

    The sticking point is that political will, and the distrust (probably on both sides to be honest) that politicians would find it to be impossible in practice because it suits them for that to be the case.

    The actual new software required, a piece of ‘middleware’ between the customs and policing systems, could probably have a functional spec written by @rcs1000 and myself in a couple of weeks, it’s really not rocket science. But all the software in the world is no good if the politicians refuse to implement it.


    Plus I love this line:

    "...if the trade, post Brexit, were to change dramatically, including increased suspicious flow from the UK mainland, on to Northern Ireland and to the Republic, HMRC could easily become aware and co-operate through a binding protocol with their Irish colleagues to deal with it."

    Yep - a binding protocol between the EU and the UK. Wait, what? You mean like a deal? That would be great - and while it is negotiated we need something to prevent a "stupid" border. And hence the WA and the backstop.

    Don't you lot actually read the stuff you link to?
    Yep, I read it, and yep it’s a trusted trader scheme. The vast majority of goods crossing that border originate from only a few dozen companies.

    A small amount of non-compliance really isn’t a problem - as it isn’t now with varying levels of VAT and duty on goods carried across the border. If it becomes obvious that a man in a van is doing things he shouldn’t be doing, then the authorities can co-operate, as again happens now, to deal with him.

    The whole point of the backstop is nothing to do with the border in NI, it’s for the EU to prevent UK regulatory divergence after we leave and to hold leverage in the coming trade talks. I don’t see why it’s in the UK’s interest to agree to that.
    TBH, I seem to recall quite a lot of trade in drink between UK and (mainly) France a few years ago. At least one chap I knew made a good living out of it.
    And unless I'm mistaken there's quite a lot of such illegal trade in tobacco products to this day. There was a hurrah about in the Press quite recently, IIRC.
  • TOPPING said:

    Conclusion - all of these things are designed to reduce friction at a border. But none of them obviate the need for a border.

    A border already exists. The question has never been about whether there is a border or not but about what form it takes.

    You seem to be conveniently ignoring the existence of different tax regimes on either side of that border.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Proof Netflix appear willing to fund any old shit at the moment, as more content is better than no content...

    If eating according to the colours of the rainbow and steaming your vagina is just the kind of health advice you crave, get ready. Goop, the new-age lifestyle website of Oscar-winning actor Gwyneth Paltrow, will soon be coming to Netflix, according to reports.

    They’re spending serious money on content, but give the impression of aiming for quantity over quality.

    Comedians, especially in the US, are seriously making out of Netflix, writing $1m cheques for almost anyone who’s got an hour of stand-up material. It’s very cheap TV to produce too, being in most cases several months’ work for just one person, needing only a few cameras and a theatre for a couple of days to film the show.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    TOPPING said:

    Conclusion - all of these things are designed to reduce friction at a border. But none of them obviate the need for a border.

    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254

    There is a middle ground between letting unpopular MPs just continue on despite many disagreements and ripping everything up and starting again. A pre resignation John Woodcock might be a good example of someone worth replacing.

    I do agree that MPs who believe in barely a single thing that the party now stands for are not an asset.

    However, obvious point but has to be made, Jeremy himself would have been ditched back in the Blair years by that measure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-much-women-footballers-earn-11147481

    35K a year for the top clubs with another 30-35K if playing for England.
    I would guess that as somebody said the equivalent in mens football is national league, and I am pretty sure it is more than £35k a year, but won't be orders of magnitude higher. Probably more like £50k a year (if that).
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    The border crossing between NI and RoI is currently unmanned except by lots of ANPR cameras, with police and customs officers responding to incidents, tipoffs and vehicles of interest away from the actual border.

    Ainion that it’s something easily workable if the political will was there to do it.
    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/soft-borders-work-lets-start-with-ireland/

    good if the politicians refuse to implement it.

    e others.
    Livestock and agriculture can be inspected on the farms at either side of the border, people can already move between the two countries thanks to the Common Travel Area.

    TCanada/USA border is open for long stretches (it’s a very long border). There are signs on minor roads detailing customs and border procedures along with cameras alerting local police as vehicles cross. The vast majority of traffic is vehicles with advance customs declarations forwarded electronically, with drivers who are registered frequent border crossers and don’t need their passports stamping.
    Thanks Sandpit.

    Is that livestock and agricultural inspection to be done electronically? What about plants and unusual animals? Can they be electronically monitored too? What about say milk supplies - how do you test electronically to ensure what's crossing the border is....er….kosher?

    What you describe in North America is in fact a very hard border which is open for long stretches because there is no need for vigorous policing on such stretches, although the possibility exists should the need arise. NI also has a long border with the Republic. It is very squiggly and has I believe thousands of crossing points, many indiscernible to those with no interest in them.

    As regards people, won't the post-Brexit Irish border be an attractive point of entry for a wide variety of illegals? Technology will help, as it does in the Channel and the Mediterranean, but in the end don't you need people, and Keep Out signs?

    'Technological solutions' is beginning to sound like some of the other bromides Leavers offered during the referendum campaign. You can understand my scepticism.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    I see people are finally beginning to cotton on to the Irish American lobby ...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1092718256933273600?s=21

    There will not be a UK/US trade deal, so it's all moot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
    I don't think anybody below the National League is a proper full time club? Torquay United perhaps? When you start getting down that low, you are talking a few £100 a game tops.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-much-women-footballers-earn-11147481

    35K a year for the top clubs with another 30-35K if playing for England.
    I would guess that as somebody said the equivalent in mens football is national league, and I am pretty sure it is more than £35k a year, but won't be orders of magnitude higher. Probably more like £50k a year (if that).
    £35k is in line with what lottery-supported Olympic athletes get as a ‘salary’. The more successful will also get personal sponsorship and appearance fees on top. It’s generally enough money to quit the day job and train full time.
  • Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-much-women-footballers-earn-11147481

    35K a year for the top clubs with another 30-35K if playing for England.
    I would guess that as somebody said the equivalent in mens football is national league, and I am pretty sure it is more than £35k a year, but won't be orders of magnitude higher. Probably more like £50k a year (if that).
    £35k is in line with what lottery-supported Olympic athletes get as a ‘salary’. The more successful will also get personal sponsorship and appearance fees on top. It’s generally enough money to quit the day job and train full time.
    That's a good point about sponsorship. No national league player is getting inundated with sponsorship opportunities, where as I would have thought a WSL will get some by the fact they are playing at the top of the women's game.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Sean_F said:

    I see people are finally beginning to cotton on to the Irish American lobby ...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1092718256933273600?s=21

    There will not be a UK/US trade deal, so it's all moot.
    The only question is how many of those selling the advantages of a US trade deal knew full well it was unrealistic and how many truly believed it and will be unhappy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
    I don't think anybody below the National League is a proper full time club? Torquay United perhaps? When you start getting down that low, you are talking a few £100 a game tops.
    I seem to recall that when Forest Green Rovers were promoted to League Two they had not long before gone full-time professional.
  • Sean_F said:

    I see people are finally beginning to cotton on to the Irish American lobby ...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1092718256933273600?s=21

    There will not be a UK/US trade deal, so it's all moot.

    The trade deal is the start of it. Post-Brexit we are going to need all the friends we can get. The Tories are pretty much guaranteeing that the US and the EU will be ticked off the list, so I guess that leaves the Chinese of the global rule setters for us to cosy up to.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    edited February 2019
    Brexit Secretaries don't go to Brussels, do they. The first one certainly didn't much.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    TOPPING said:

    Conclusion - all of these things are designed to reduce friction at a border. But none of them obviate the need for a border.

    image
    Well, that is reassuring. I can't imagine why you would want anyone who has previously had association and input with a large government IT project to be involved in another one.
  • Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
    I don't think anybody below the National League is a proper full time club? Torquay United perhaps? When you start getting down that low, you are talking a few £100 a game tops.
    I seem to recall that when Forest Green Rovers were promoted to League Two they had not long before gone full-time professional.
    I am astonished to see that Leyton Orient are regularly attracting roughly 5,000 per game in the National League. This is more than they used to get in Divisions 1 & 2 ! Ok, they're top, but it's still pretty good. You could pay decent greengages on that alright.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
    Level 8 is (assuming I've understood correctly) a further three divisions below the National League. I believe salaries at that point are nominal, whereas most clubs in the National League and its immediate feeder leagues are now full-time.

    I think it's a matter of some bafflement at high levels as to why women's Super League attendances aren't higher. There was a lot of chatter earlier this year around whether moving matches to the larger stadiums would encourage turnout, or just look daft.
  • He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Even someone totally uninterested in Tory politics should have picked up that Sarah Wollaston is more moderate than the rest of her party, and is quite rebellious on some issues. It's hard to see why primaries would have a different result for Labour - relatively moderate MPs who are less willing to toe the leadership's line. Primaries also produce a strong pro-incumbent bias as many of the voters haven't heard of the challenger. I don't think Aaron has thought this through.

    Wollaston is an odd example.

    It's worth bearing in mind that Wollaston won her primary from memory as a sceptic. She was a rebel who voted for an EU referendum early on.

    She's since then transformed into an extremist second referendum Remainer who doesn't respect the outcome of the vote she campaigned to have called.

    It would be like having Tony Blair be first elected to Parliament on Michael Foot's manifesto. Oh wait ...
    So now Dr Sarah Wollaston is an extremist.

    As someone once said...

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Yes she is.

    There are only about a dozen second vote rebels amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party seeking to reverse the referendum. By definition they are extremists. It is literally what the word means.

    To put it into a context you might understand let's imagine Corbyn gets elected on a manifesto of nationalising the railways. A hardcore of 12 MPs led by Liz Kendall seek to block nationalisation by working with Tories and other opposition parties. Would Kendall then be an extremist within your party?
    She is not an extremist.

    My concern with Sarah Wollaston is that she was an eurosceptic but has now changed to leading the campaign to remain.

    The party consists of hard brexiteers, a small number of remainers, and a majority of mps who favour a deal. I am with those in favour of a deal and if you want to start talking about extremists in my party it is only fair to consider many members of ERG are as extreme as SW
    I do consider the ERG extremists. Don't you? Although the ERG voted for the Brady compromise to try and get a deal while Wollaston didn't even do that. So in that vote she was even more extreme than the ERG.
    No - each is trying to manipulate the party for their own minority views in the party
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Wollaston is the ultimate headbanger. I feel sorry for her constituents
  • _Anazina_ said:

    I

    _Anazina_ said:

    Even someone totally uninterested in Tory politics should have picked up that Sarah Wollaston is more moderate than the rest of her party, and is quite rebellious on some issues. It's hard to see why primaries would have a different result for Labour - relatively moderate MPs who are less willing to toe the leadership's line. Primaries also produce a strong pro-incumbent bias as many of the voters haven't heard of the challenger. I don't think Aaron has thought this through.

    Wollaston is an odd example.

    It's worth bearing in mind that Wollaston won her primary from memory as a sceptic. She was a rebel who voted for an EU referendum early on.


    It would be like having Tony Blair be first elected to Parliament on Michael Foot's manifesto. Oh wait ...
    So now Dr Sarah Wollaston is an extremist.

    As someone once said...

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Yes she is.

    There are only about a dozen second vote rebels amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party seeking to reverse the referendum. By definition they are extremists. It is literally what the word means.

    To put it into a context you might understand let's imagine Corbyn gets elected on a manifesto of nationalising the railways. A hardcore of 12 MPs led by Liz Kendall seek to block nationalisation by working with Tories and other opposition parties. Would Kendall then be an extremist within your party?
    Not my party but no, not at all. Kendall and Wollaston represent large strands of Labour and Tory voters. That you consider them extremists really shows just how bonkers the party leaderships and loyalists like you have become in recent times.
    Wollaston represents Remain At Any Cost. That is not a large strand within the Conservative Party.
    But they are entitled to their view without being called extremists. I do not support their aim of remaining but equally I do not support the ultras who think they own my party and just want us to crash out of the EU on some little englander crusade
    Why do you object to the word extremists but find the word ultras acceptable? They are synonymous. Would you find it better if Wollaston is referred to as an ultra?

    I would have no objection to JRM, Baker et al being referred to as extremists or ultras. Conversely Grieve, Soubry et al are the same on the opposite extreme.
    Both represent a minority faction in the party. I have no problem with them both being considered ultras on their views
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631



    Thanks Sandpit.

    Is that livestock and agricultural inspection to be done electronically? What about plants and unusual animals? Can they be electronically monitored too? What about say milk supplies - how do you test electronically to ensure what's crossing the border is....er….kosher?

    What you describe in North America is in fact a very hard border which is open for long stretches because there is no need for vigorous policing on such stretches, although the possibility exists should the need arise. NI also has a long border with the Republic. It is very squiggly and has I believe thousands of crossing points, many indiscernible to those with no interest in them.

    As regards people, won't the post-Brexit Irish border be an attractive point of entry for a wide variety of illegals? Technology will help, as it does in the Channel and the Mediterranean, but in the end don't you need people, and Keep Out signs?

    'Technological solutions' is beginning to sound like some of the other bromides Leavers offered during the referendum campaign. You can understand my scepticism.

    Agricultural produce needs to be physically inspected, as in most cases it does already. The inspections can be done on farms though, they don’t require trucks to be stopped at an arbitrary line on a map.

    The policing of the border for immigrants will continue exactly as it does now under the CTA. People smuggling won’t be any more or less attractive than it is now.

    The new issues generated, that do not exist already, are going to be:
    1. Trucks under-declaring their cargo on electronic manifests.
    2. Small businesses who can’t be arsed with the paperwork, maybe crossing several times a day.
    3. Small-rime running of high-value or highly-dutied goods. Mostly this happens already with petrol, alcohol and tobacco. It has the potential to affect other goods where a high price difference appears due to tarrifs and VAT changes.

    1. Can be dealt with harshly by prosecution of companies where it’s discovered at spot checks away from the border.
    2 and 3 can be mostly ignored, dealt with on a tactical basis when it comes to the attention of the authorities, as used to happen with the booze and fags runs to France before the French upped their duty rates.

    What most people are missing is that a bit of leakage through the border is okay for the UK, it’s the price to pay for keeping an open border and peace in the region.
  • He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
    A French friend remarked to me recently that the last time she went, she wasn't even offered lunch - the ultimate Gallic insult!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Conclusion - all of these things are designed to reduce friction at a border. But none of them obviate the need for a border.

    A border already exists. The question has never been about whether there is a border or not but about what form it takes.

    You seem to be conveniently ignoring the existence of different tax regimes on either side of that border.
    Your own referenced paper which was supposed to provide the solution to no border acknowledges that the relationship between Ireland and the UK will change and with that would come new requirements and each of his proposed technological solutions implicitly admits the need for a hard border. Albeit a soft hard border.

    Today, there is a soft border, different tax regimes and all. Your paper concedes that that would have to change. His whole thrust is to make the checks as unobtrusive as possible, but checks there will be. He spells out.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Scott_P said:
    Before or after he's had his liquid lunch?

    (It's hard to be drunker than Jean-Claude Juncker!)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    The biggest tragedy may prove to be peoples' (intentional?) elision of the WA and a future trade deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    @Richard_Tyndall - Why don't you just advocate a united Ireland as the solution, given that you support it? Why shouldn't the people of Great Britain have an equal right to leave the union?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
    Level 8 is (assuming I've understood correctly) a further three divisions below the National League. I believe salaries at that point are nominal, whereas most clubs in the National League and its immediate feeder leagues are now full-time.

    I think it's a matter of some bafflement at high levels as to why women's Super League attendances aren't higher. There was a lot of chatter earlier this year around whether moving matches to the larger stadiums would encourage turnout, or just look daft.
    Not sure that all the National League are F/t, TBH.
    Around 90-100 years ago, of course, women football attracted big crowds. So big in fact they they were bigger than some of the top mens games, so the FA banned their members from hosting them. I suspect that as more games are shown on TV then there will be increased crowds.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Scott_P said:
    Has it really taken the drunkard more than a week to find space for the PM in his diary?

    I wonder when it’s going to dawn on him, that his obstinance is leading directly to a no-deal outcome?
  • Mr. kinabalu, never agree to anything on a temporary basis that you wouldn't accept for longer than you expect.

    I don't trust the EU remotely.
  • Sandpit said:



    Thanks Sandpit.

    Is that livestock and agricultural inspection to be done electronically? What about plants and unusual animals? Can they be electronically monitored too? What about say milk supplies - how do you test electronically to ensure what's crossing the border is....er….kosher?

    Wh
    As regards people, won't the post-Brexit Irish border be an attractive point of entry for a wide variety of illegals? Technology will help, as it does in the Channel and the Mediterranean, but in the end don't you need people, and Keep Out signs?

    'Technological solutions' is beginning to sound like some of the other bromides Leavers offered during the referendum campaign. You can understand my scepticism.

    Agricultural produce needs to be physically inspected, as in most cases it does already. The inspections can be done on farms though, they don’t require trucks to be stopped at an arbitrary line on a map.

    The policing of the border for immigrants will continue exactly as it does now under the CTA. People smuggling won’t be any more or less attractive than it is now.

    The new issues generated, that do not exist already, are going to be:
    1. Trucks under-declaring their cargo on electronic manifests.
    2. Small businesses who can’t be arsed with the paperwork, maybe crossing several times a day.
    3. Small-rime running of high-value or highly-dutied goods. Mostly this happens already with petrol, alcohol and tobacco. It has the potential to affect other goods where a high price difference appears due to tarrifs and VAT changes.

    1. Can be dealt with harshly by prosecution of companies where it’s discovered at spot checks away from the border.
    2 and 3 can be mostly ignored, dealt with on a tactical basis when it comes to the attention of the authorities, as used to happen with the booze and fags runs to France before the French upped their duty rates.

    What most people are missing is that a bit of leakage through the border is okay for the UK, it’s the price to pay for keeping an open border and peace in the region.
    Thanks Sandpit, but this isn't quite passing the smell test. There are, it appears, technological solutions except where there aren't.

    It's a border, and borders exist for reasons. We are leaving the EU so we can exercise our sovereign independence our side of the border. That means policing it, and all the usual paraphernalia - some technologically advanced, some less so.

    The Irish border issue is a bit inconvenient for people who think treaties and the like which minimise border problems are excessively restrictive of our sovereign status.
  • 5 live business review this morning came from Belfast, which is the second destination after London for tech firms, and in discussion with the tech experts everyone said that there is no current tech solution to the Irish border. It was suggested that a group of these tech savvy experts should be commissioned by the government to work on a solution, but they all agreed it would not be quick
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220


    I am astonished to see that Leyton Orient are regularly attracting roughly 5,000 per game in the National League. This is more than they used to get in Divisions 1 & 2 ! Ok, they're top, but it's still pretty good. You could pay decent greengages on that alright.

    Attendances in women's superleage averaged 1092 in 2016 (Source : https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37862713 )
    Not dissimiliar to National league North : https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league-north/attendances
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited February 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    This is @rcs1000's point who believes we should have the right to break any agreement if it is found that the EU is acting in bad faith and trying not to find or accept a technological solution. But that is as much a by-product of our Remain/Leave mindset. I happen to agree with you, but evidently Robert, together with Steve Baker and Mark Francois*, think that it is the EU's master plan (or at least might be) to trap us into a cherry-picked version of trade with them as they sit back stroking their Siamese cat in the middle of the Brussels volcano.

    *low blow, I know.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,854

    Endillion said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Lady from the FA thinks female footballers should get paid the same as men

    I think the men should be paid the same as the women.
    Actually I don't know this, but interesting to know. I wonder what the comparison between male professional footballers who attract similar attendances / fanbases get paid compared to the women's premier league?

    I actually never really had that much of an issue with the very top level players getting paid what they do, it isn't that out of whack with other elite sports. However, my understanding is that even in say division 1 and 2 of football league players can easily make £100k+.

    Yes football is a global game and very well supported game, but you don't get say a tennis player or golfer who well outside the top bracket making big money, or even NFL (the richest league in America) the salary outside of the top players / positions isn't massive.
    Top level women's football in this country tends to attract attendances around the lower single digit thousands, and frequently not even that (ie hundreds). The correct comparison is more like the semi-professional National League (below League 2) than the Football League itself, on that basis. I believe pay is still higher in the men's version, but not by an order of magnitude.

    Although the situation is complicated by the much higher attendances women's international football picks up, and also the fact that it's much more popular in other countries.
    For reference, I watch a Level 8 club; don't know what salaries are paid to the players but I do know they generally have other jobs. One, I understand works in the finance dept of a Football League club. Attendances are usually around 250, although the ground record is just over 1000.
    Stockport County in National League North (tier 6) is still, I think, largely professional (and attracting attendances of over 4000!).
    Women's football may be getting comparable attendances, but a lot of the attendances are children getting in for free. How do the gate receipts compare? I don't know.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Mr. kinabalu, never agree to anything on a temporary basis that you wouldn't accept for longer than you expect.

    I don't trust the EU remotely.

    QED
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    edited February 2019

    Mr. kinabalu, never agree to anything on a temporary basis that you wouldn't accept for longer than you expect.

    I don't trust the EU remotely.

    I'm a trusting soul!

    But seriously, I think a lack of trust often hinders deal making.

    An excess of distrust can be a sign of naivety.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    This is @rcs1000's point who believes we should have the right to break any agreement if it is found that the EU is acting in bad faith and trying not to find or accept a technological solution. But that is as much a by-product of our Remain/Leave mindset. I happen to agree with you, but evidently Robert, together with Steve Baker and Mark Francois*, think that it is the EU's master plan (or at least might be) to trap us into a cherry-picked version of trade with them as they sit back stroking their Siamese cat in the middle of the Brussels volcano.

    *low blow, I know.
    Declaring "we are withdrawing from this agreement" might sound nice and sovereign and virile but doesn't change any of the practical facts on the ground.
  • kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I see video has been unearthed of Jezza ranting about the dangers of every closer union within EU, Lisbon treaty and NATO. Nothing particularly surprising, but I am sure the cult will still argue that they think he is nailed on Remainer.

    More worrying to me, he makes the faux-pas of thinking that the monster in Frankenstein is called Frankenstein....

    The monster in Frankenstein is called Frankenstein. Isn't that one of the central points of the story?
    Depends who you think the monster is.

    I'd argue that Dr. Frankenstein is the monster, while Frankenstein's Monster is the victim
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Has it really taken the drunkard more than a week to find space for the PM in his diary?

    I wonder when it’s going to dawn on him, that his obstinance is leading directly to a no-deal outcome?
    I read that the first time as "abstinence", which made little sense, but amused me no end.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
    A French friend remarked to me recently that the last time she went, she wasn't even offered lunch - the ultimate Gallic insult!
    TBF French food is vastly overrated and overpriced. Spain is now head and shoulders above.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    This is @rcs1000's point who believes we should have the right to break any agreement if it is found that the EU is acting in bad faith and trying not to find or accept a technological solution. But that is as much a by-product of our Remain/Leave mindset. I happen to agree with you, but evidently Robert, together with Steve Baker and Mark Francois*, think that it is the EU's master plan (or at least might be) to trap us into a cherry-picked version of trade with them as they sit back stroking their Siamese cat in the middle of the Brussels volcano.

    *low blow, I know.
    Declaring "we are withdrawing from this agreement" might sound nice and sovereign and virile but doesn't change any of the practical facts on the ground.
    Of course it doesn't. May for all her many ills has grasped the NI issue and has not budged on it. Going to Brussels to see Barnier I can't see changing anything and if it doesn't change anything, then....nothing has changed!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    felix said:

    He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
    A French friend remarked to me recently that the last time she went, she wasn't even offered lunch - the ultimate Gallic insult!
    TBF French food is vastly overrated and overpriced. Spain is now head and shoulders above.
    Don't get @SeanT going again.
  • Mr. kinabalu, I'd say that's more a trait of being too trusting.

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    5 live business review this morning came from Belfast, which is the second destination after London for tech firms, and in discussion with the tech experts everyone said that there is no current tech solution to the Irish border. It was suggested that a group of these tech savvy experts should be commissioned by the government to work on a solution, but they all agreed it would not be quick

    I am reminded of the time, in February 1997, when I, along with a number of other 'likely to be involved' people attended a meeting with a representative of the Ministry of Health (or whatever it was called) and told to arrange for a cohort of nurses to be taught prescribing. What's the deadine? By the next election we were told. In other words, May of that year.
    Short notice we said, What's the syllabus. Not yet determined, was the answer.
    Well, have you any idea of the exams they'll have to do. Not yet.
    Can't be done. And then the guy genuinely said 'The Minister wants it'.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Has it really taken the drunkard more than a week to find space for the PM in his diary?

    I wonder when it’s going to dawn on him, that his obstinance is leading directly to a no-deal outcome?
    I read that the first time as "abstinence", which made little sense, but amused me no end.
    LOL. Abstinence is so last month (for me anyway!).
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Pulpstar said:


    I am astonished to see that Leyton Orient are regularly attracting roughly 5,000 per game in the National League. This is more than they used to get in Divisions 1 & 2 ! Ok, they're top, but it's still pretty good. You could pay decent greengages on that alright.

    Attendances in women's superleage averaged 1092 in 2016 (Source : https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37862713 )
    Not dissimiliar to National league North : https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league-north/attendances
    £10 per ticket (say - I think it's actually lower), 23 home games a season (ignoring cups) = £1.15m

    Say all of that goes on wages (probably a reasonable starting assumption if they break even and merchandising etc pays for other costs), divided equally among a 25 player squad. That's £46k pa each. Not sure if that satisfies your definition of "decent"?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. His intervention is serving only to further muddy the waters; I assume that is his real intention.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Sandpit said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Has it really taken the drunkard more than a week to find space for the PM in his diary?

    I wonder when it’s going to dawn on him, that his obstinance is leading directly to a no-deal outcome?
    I read that the first time as "abstinence", which made little sense, but amused me no end.
    LOL. Abstinence is so last month (for me anyway!).
    Did it make the heart grow fonder?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    TOPPING said:

    This is @rcs1000's point who believes we should have the right to break any agreement if it is found that the EU is acting in bad faith and trying not to find or accept a technological solution. But that is as much a by-product of our Remain/Leave mindset. I happen to agree with you, but evidently Robert, together with Steve Baker and Mark Francois*, think that it is the EU's master plan (or at least might be) to trap us into a cherry-picked version of trade with them as they sit back stroking their Siamese cat in the middle of the Brussels volcano.

    *low blow, I know.

    One thing is undeniable - this issue really ought to have figured more prominently back in 2016. All I can remember is Osborne's 'emergency budget' on the one hand and an invasion of Turks and £350 big ones a week for the NHS on the other.

    Regarding unilateral revocation of the Treaty for 'bad faith', I guess that could be our backstop to the backstop, couldn't it?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:


    I am astonished to see that Leyton Orient are regularly attracting roughly 5,000 per game in the National League. This is more than they used to get in Divisions 1 & 2 ! Ok, they're top, but it's still pretty good. You could pay decent greengages on that alright.

    Attendances in women's superleage averaged 1092 in 2016 (Source : https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37862713 )
    Not dissimiliar to National league North : https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league-north/attendances
    Worth considering that matchday tickets at my club cost £15 - £18 at step 1 of non league. If you want to watch a women's match you'll pay £7 at most. You'd have to go down to step 4 of non league to find comparative prices.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    edited February 2019

    Mr. kinabalu, I'd say that's more a trait of being too trusting.

    Anyway, I must be off.

    Too trusting or too distrusting - both can indicate naivety.

    (Like your F1 blog btw.)
  • felix said:

    He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
    A French friend remarked to me recently that the last time she went, she wasn't even offered lunch - the ultimate Gallic insult!
    TBF French food is vastly overrated and overpriced. Spain is now head and shoulders above.

    I'd take French cheese over Spanish cheese, with one or two exceptions. I'd go Spain for everything else though!

  • 5 live business review this morning came from Belfast, which is the second destination after London for tech firms, and in discussion with the tech experts everyone said that there is no current tech solution to the Irish border. It was suggested that a group of these tech savvy experts should be commissioned by the government to work on a solution, but they all agreed it would not be quick

    I am reminded of the time, in February 1997, when I, along with a number of other 'likely to be involved' people attended a meeting with a representative of the Ministry of Health (or whatever it was called) and told to arrange for a cohort of nurses to be taught prescribing. What's the deadine? By the next election we were told. In other words, May of that year.
    Short notice we said, What's the syllabus. Not yet determined, was the answer.
    Well, have you any idea of the exams they'll have to do. Not yet.
    Can't be done. And then the guy genuinely said 'The Minister wants it'.
    Good parallel
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found

    Well all bets will be off in that case.

    Although not literally unfortunately. There will be some very sore punters.
  • Dadge said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. His intervention is serving only to further muddy the waters; I assume that is his real intention.
    The backstop is designed to protect one party of the GFA. The GFA had multiple parties.
  • Dadge said:

    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. ...

    That's a non-sequitur. Something can be designed to achieve a particular objective, but that doesn't prove that it does.

    Of course, in the event that Lord Trimble were to get a judgement in his favour, it would be superb news for the government, albeit about 6 months too late. It seems unlikely on the face of it, but without more information it's impossible to be sure. We have no idea at the moment of the grounds on which Lord Trimble thinks he has a case, but he's definitely no fool and he knows a thing or two about the GFA.
  • What makes the Irish border so complicated is that almost 100% of people to the south and west of it and around 40% to the north of it consider themselves Irish. The GFA and EU membership meant that to a large extent the border ceased to exist in their minds, even if it did so in reality. Its potential reappearance in less than two months time after 20 years is therefore a really big deal that goes way, way beyond trade and customs. No-one in the British government seems to understand this - probably because the only Northern Irish people it listens to are from the DUP.
  • Dadge said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. His intervention is serving only to further muddy the waters; I assume that is his real intention.
    I am not a legal expert but it is unlikely he has taken this action without legal advice that it is possible to win. Indeed those with legal knowledge on here were uncertain as to the outcome

    If he wins it will have a big impact but if he loses he will have legitimised the backstop, a result he would not want
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Even someone totally uninterested in Tory politics should have picked up that Sarah Wollaston is more moderate than the rest of her party, and is quite rebellious on some issues. It's hard to see why primaries would have a different result for Labour - relatively moderate MPs who are less willing to toe the leadership's line. Primaries also produce a strong pro-incumbent bias as many of the voters haven't heard of the challenger. I don't think Aaron has thought this through.

    Wollaston is an odd example.

    It's worth bearing in mind that Wollaston won her primary from memory as a sceptic. She was a rebel who voted for an EU referendum early on.

    She's since then transformed into an extremist second referendum Remainer who doesn't respect the outcome of the vote she campaigned to have called.

    It would be like having Tony Blair be first elected to Parliament on Michael Foot's manifesto. Oh wait ...
    So now Dr Sarah Wollaston is an extremist.

    As someone once said...

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Yes she is.

    There are only about a dozen second vote rebels amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party seeking to reverse the referendum. By definition they are extremists. It is literally what the word means.

    To put it into a context you might understand let's imagine Corbyn gets elected on a manifesto of nationalising the railways. A hardcore of 12 MPs led by Liz Kendall seek to block nationalisation by working with Tories and other opposition parties. Would Kendall then be an extremist within your party?
    She is not an extremist.

    My concern with Sarah Wollaston is that she was an eurosceptic but has now changed to leading the campaign to remain.

    The party consists of hard brexiteers, a small number of remainers, and a majority of mps who favour a deal. I am with those in favour of a deal and if you want to start talking about extremists in my party it is only fair to consider many members of ERG are as extreme as SW
    I do consider the ERG extremists. Don't you? Although the ERG voted for the Brady compromise to try and get a deal while Wollaston didn't even do that. So in that vote she was even more extreme than the ERG.
    No - each is trying to manipulate the party for their own minority views in the party
    Indeed and each set of views is literally on the extreme. It isn't pejorative it is literally what the word means.

    Who in the party has a more extreme view than Wollaston/Baker?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I am astonished to see that Leyton Orient are regularly attracting roughly 5,000 per game in the National League. This is more than they used to get in Divisions 1 & 2 ! Ok, they're top, but it's still pretty good. You could pay decent greengages on that alright.

    Attendances in women's superleage averaged 1092 in 2016 (Source : https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37862713 )
    Not dissimiliar to National league North : https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/national-league-north/attendances
    £10 per ticket (say - I think it's actually lower), 23 home games a season (ignoring cups) = £1.15m

    Say all of that goes on wages (probably a reasonable starting assumption if they break even and merchandising etc pays for other costs), divided equally among a 25 player squad. That's £46k pa each. Not sure if that satisfies your definition of "decent"?
    £5 per ticket for children and OAPs. Decent number of the latter.There's a reasonable amount of sponsorship as well, and sales of food and drink. In our case from a well appointed bar/club, available to all on match days and rented out for social events.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    What makes the Irish border so complicated is that almost 100% of people to the south and west of it and around 40% to the north of it consider themselves Irish. The GFA and EU membership meant that to a large extent the border ceased to exist in their minds, even if it did so in reality. Its potential reappearance in less than two months time after 20 years is therefore a really big deal that goes way, way beyond trade and customs. No-one in the British government seems to understand this - probably because the only Northern Irish people it listens to are from the DUP.

    I think that Theresa May understands it. Now.
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Even someone totally uninterested in Tory politics should have picked up that Sarah Wollaston is more moderate than the rest of her party, and is quite rebellious on some issues. It's hard to see why primaries would have a different result for Labour - relatively moderate MPs who are less willing to toe the leadership's line. Primaries also produce a strong pro-incumbent bias as many of the voters haven't heard of the challenger. I don't think Aaron has thought this through.

    Wollaston is an odd example.

    It's worth bearing in mind that Wollaston won her primary from memory as a sceptic. She was a rebel who voted for an EU referendum early on.

    She's since then transformed into an extremist second referendum Remainer who doesn't respect the outcome of the vote she campaigned to have called.

    It would be like having Tony Blair be first elected to Parliament on Michael Foot's manifesto. Oh wait ...
    So now Dr Sarah Wollaston is an extremist.

    As someone once said...

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
    Yes she is.

    There are only about a dozen second vote rebels amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party seeking to reverse the referendum. By definition they are extremists. It is literally what the word means.

    To put it into a context you might understand let's imagine Corbyn gets elected on a manifesto of nationalising the railways. A hardcore of 12 MPs led by Liz Kendall seek to block nationalisation by working with Tories and other opposition parties. Would Kendall then be an extremist within your party?
    She is not an extremist.

    My concern with Sarah Wollaston is that she was an eurosceptic but has now changed to leading the campaign to remain.

    The party consists of hard brexiteers, a small number of remainers, and a majority of mps who favour a deal. I am with those in favour of a deal and if you want to start talking about extremists in my party it is only fair to consider many members of ERG are as extreme as SW
    I do consider the ERG extremists. Don't you? Although the ERG voted for the Brady compromise to try and get a deal while Wollaston didn't even do that. So in that vote she was even more extreme than the ERG.
    No - each is trying to manipulate the party for their own minority views in the party
    Indeed and each set of views is literally on the extreme. It isn't pejorative it is literally what the word means.

    Who in the party has a more extreme view than Wollaston/Baker?
    Maybe Grieve and Francois
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Gavin Barwell was spotted in St Pancras this morning getting off the 8.52am Eurostar from Brussels – complete with overnight bag and accompanied by an unidentified aide. A co-conspirator says Barwell was looking very pleased…

    The PM’s Chief of Staff hasn’t been a regular visitor to Brussels during the negotiations so far and his visit wasn’t briefed out to the media.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/05/barwells-mystery-brussels-trip/

    Long way to go for a box of chocolates.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    edited February 2019

    What makes the Irish border so complicated is that almost 100% of people to the south and west of it and around 40% to the north of it consider themselves Irish. The GFA and EU membership meant that to a large extent the border ceased to exist in their minds, even if it did so in reality. Its potential reappearance in less than two months time after 20 years is therefore a really big deal that goes way, way beyond trade and customs. No-one in the British government seems to understand this - probably because the only Northern Irish people it listens to are from the DUP.

    If the SDLP hadn't been replaced by the 'abstentionist' Sinn Fein there might have been more a more realistic view.
  • Sky News "Raw" is live...no swearing we always live (yes Adam Boulton, that includes you).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehHn4eobHRE
  • Dadge said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. His intervention is serving only to further muddy the waters; I assume that is his real intention.
    Avoidinginfrastructure on the border is not part of the GFA. The backstop is not designed to comply with the GFA but to avoid infrastructure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    felix said:

    He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
    A French friend remarked to me recently that the last time she went, she wasn't even offered lunch - the ultimate Gallic insult!
    TBF French food is vastly overrated and overpriced. Spain is now head and shoulders above.

    I'd take French cheese over Spanish cheese, with one or two exceptions. I'd go Spain for everything else though!

    Italian over both.
  • kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    The UK would also be in breach of the GFA along with the EU but not the Irish.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,010
    edited February 2019
    Nige & Jezza up a tree...
    (though I accept that Jezza has been pursued there)

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1092759166974865414
  • kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    The UK would also be in breach of the GFA along with the EU but not the Irish.
    The Irish are joint authors with the EU
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Charles said:

    I see video has been unearthed of Jezza ranting about the dangers of every closer union within EU, Lisbon treaty and NATO. Nothing particularly surprising, but I am sure the cult will still argue that they think he is nailed on Remainer.

    More worrying to me, he makes the faux-pas of thinking that the monster in Frankenstein is called Frankenstein....

    The monster in Frankenstein is called Frankenstein. Isn't that one of the central points of the story?
    Depends who you think the monster is.

    I'd argue that Dr. Frankenstein is the monster, while Frankenstein's Monster is the victim
    Bleeding heart liberal....

    ("Igor, his heart is bleeding...fetch me another heart.....")
  • "Going to Brussels" is truly May's defining act of ineffectual political theatre.

    But it makes the press happy, because they seem to believe, apropos nothing, that the mere act of simply *moving closer* in three dimensional space to Tusk and Juncker will achieve something.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Nige & Jezza up a tree...
    (though I accept that Jezza has been pursued there)

    twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1092759166974865414

    Owen Smith isn't happy...the replies are amusing, apparently it was 10 years ago and Jezza has now totally changed his mind on this. The man hasn't changed his mind on anything in 40 years, it is only recently updated his wardrobe after that long of wearing the same clothes.

    https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/status/1092560664361660416
  • Nige & Jezza up a tree...
    (though I accept that Jezza has been pursued there)

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1092759166974865414

    Let's hope this results in another drop in Lab membership, as Remainers wake up from the jezza dreamland.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Nige & Jezza up a tree...
    (though I accept that Jezza has been pursued there)

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1092759166974865414

    Let's hope this results in another drop in Lab membership, as Remainers wake up from the jezza dreamland.
    Looking at the tw@tter-verse, the faithful still believe in the Jessiah. It is apparently just all smears from anti-Corbyn faction within the Labour Party. Even if they were shown a video of him marking his ballot paper with a cross next to leave, they would still argue it was some sort of deep fake.

  • The Irish are joint authors with the EU

    Uh, May rejected the backstop the Irish drafted. The one in the WA is May's backstop. The one she drafted. He proud, crowning achievement of the Brexit negotiations.

    That she then welched on.

    Because why not.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    felix said:

    He is right. It is crap. She should at least be making an effort to appear to do something even if it is difficult bordering on impossible. At least Cameron used to walk in to he Lion's Den and fight his corner. These days May seems to want to avoid Brussels at all unless she thinks she can win.
    A French friend remarked to me recently that the last time she went, she wasn't even offered lunch - the ultimate Gallic insult!
    TBF French food is vastly overrated and overpriced. Spain is now head and shoulders above.

    I'd take French cheese over Spanish cheese, with one or two exceptions. I'd go Spain for everything else though!

    Italian over both.
    With odd exceptions, I prefer Spanish wine to Italian, although a good Primitivo or Negroamaro is a very pleasant drink indeed.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Dadge said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how long.

    One thing that IS known is that the deal will include arrangements which ensure an open border in Ireland - an implicit requirement of the Good Friday Agreement. The UK and the EU are committed to this and there is no reason to doubt the commitment of either.

    The problem is therefore one of timing. The deal will probably not be done by the time that the transition period runs out. A stop gap solution (to ensure an open border) is therefore needed for the period between end of transition and the deal being implemented.

    The UK and the EU have agreed such a stop gap for this interim period. The UK will remain in the Customs Union and Northern Ireland will in addition remain aligned to the Single Market. This arrangement will be superseded in due course by the deal - which might or might not involve a technological border solution.

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. His intervention is serving only to further muddy the waters; I assume that is his real intention.
    Avoidinginfrastructure on the border is not part of the GFA. The backstop is not designed to comply with the GFA but to avoid infrastructure.
    Not explicitly part of the GFA, but it was written/agreed on the basis that the UK and Ireland were both members of the EU. The courts will recognise this and that the backstop is a good-faith compromise designed to protect the GFA and that Trimble's intervention is in bad faith.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Scott_P said:
    She is hanging back because when she eventually goes, it'll be the necessary extension she'll be asking for.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited February 2019
    I think Corbyn did vote remain, but is part of the (surprisingly small if the polling is to believed) group of remainers who think we should just get on with it(*).
    He's against May's deal because its from the Tories, if Labour had written an identical one he'd be in favour.

    (*) Except with any sort of Tory Brexit !
  • Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting debate on the Irish border. Been following it. Very interesting.

    Have come to a conclusion -

    It will take time for the UK and the EU to finalize a close and comprehensive relationship & trade deal. It will be done, no question, but it might take several years and at this point nobody can know exactly how

    No border in Ireland is deemed of such import that the stop gap has been made legally binding, rather than left as a matter of trust and mutual assurances of best efforts and best intent between the parties. I can see why. Hard to see it being dropped.

    Unless we suspect that the EU wishes to trap us into the stop gap situation against our will and in perpetuity, I do not see the problem. If we do suspect that, then I can see a problem.

    I do not suspect that.

    Sensible conclusion.

    I think Lord Trimble's court case will give a clear view whether the backstop is an actual legal construct or not. If the Court finds it contravenes the GFA then the Irish and the EU would be in breach of the agreement and that almost certainly will result in panic by them, and a different solution being found
    Since the backstop is explicitly designed to protect the GFA, Trimble will be laughed out of court. His intervention is serving only to further muddy the waters; I assume that is his real intention.
    Avoidinginfrastructure on the border is not part of the GFA. The backstop is not designed to comply with the GFA but to avoid infrastructure.
    Not explicitly part of the GFA, but it was written/agreed on the basis that the UK and Ireland were both members of the EU. The courts will recognise this and that the backstop is a good-faith compromise designed to protect the GFA and that Trimble's intervention is in bad faith.
    You speak with such legal certainty, no doubt as a lawyer, but others on here are not as sure of the outcome

    If it is as open and shut a case, as you judge, why would Lord Trimble seek a judicial review. He is an expert himself on Irish matters
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019
    DUP's Sammy Wilson says his party will not back the #Brexit deal unless the backstop is removed, as it "does not honour [Theresa May's] own manifesto or the outcome of the referendum"

    Note: *removed*. Not assurances, not a time limit, not a codicil, not an exchange of letters, not a unilateral exit mechanism. REMOVED.

    The DUP are signalling they cannot and will not support the May backstop under any configuration or circumstance.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1092760450331160577
  • DUP's Sammy Wilson says his party will not back the #Brexit deal unless the backstop is removed, as it "does not honour [Theresa May's] own manifesto or the outcome of the referendum"

    Note: *removed*. Not assurances, not a time limit, not a codicil, not an exchange of letters, not a unilateral exit mechanism. REMOVED.

    The DUP are signalling they cannot and will not support the May backstop under any configuration or circumstance.

    twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1092760450331160577

    Better get stocked up on bog roll, no deal exit here we come.
  • DUP's Sammy Wilson says his party will not back the #Brexit deal unless the backstop is removed, as it "does not honour [Theresa May's] own manifesto or the outcome of the referendum"

    Note: *removed*. Not assurances, not a time limit, not a codicil, not an exchange of letters, not a unilateral exit mechanism. REMOVED.

    The DUP are signalling they cannot and will not support the May backstop under any configuration or circumstance.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1092760450331160577

    So be it. But the Country has to prevent a no deal with a deal. It is upto the HOC to deal with this and not held hostage by the DUP or the ERG, no matter what the consequences
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Isabella, part of a group of teenagers being supported by the Villiers Park social mobility charity, has a real-world, life-changing decision that will depend on the outcome of the government's review of tuition fees in England.

    If the fees were to be cut to £5,000 or £6,000, she says it would make a "massive difference" to the level of debt and she would switch to applying to university.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/education-47116650

    Head...desk...thud....schools should really be educating kids on the realities of the system and what they will be repaying under various scenarios. For the vast majority, fees of £6k vs £9k will have zero impact on their future repayments, thus it should be irrelevant to your decision to going to uni or not.
  • DUP's Sammy Wilson says his party will not back the #Brexit deal unless the backstop is removed, as it "does not honour [Theresa May's] own manifesto or the outcome of the referendum"

    Note: *removed*. Not assurances, not a time limit, not a codicil, not an exchange of letters, not a unilateral exit mechanism. REMOVED.

    The DUP are signalling they cannot and will not support the May backstop under any configuration or circumstance.

    twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1092760450331160577

    Better get stocked up on bog roll, no deal exit here we come.
    I'd expect anti (Northern) Irish sentiment to increase in Great Britain.

    Personally if I was Theresa May I'd tell the DUP that if No Deal happens then she'll trigger an Irish unity referendum.

    God I hate Sammy Wilson, the man's an anti Catholic bigot.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019


    So be it. But the Country has to prevent a no deal with a deal. It is upto the HOC to deal with this and not held hostage by the DUP or the ERG, no matter what the consequences

    So you're saying Jeremy Corbyn is our last, best hope?

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Isabella, part of a group of teenagers being supported by the Villiers Park social mobility charity, has a real-world, life-changing decision that will depend on the outcome of the government's review of tuition fees in England.

    If the fees were to be cut to £5,000 or £6,000, she says it would make a "massive difference" to the level of debt and she would switch to applying to university.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/education-47116650

    Head...desk...thud....

    Justine Greening's solution looked sensible enough to be fair.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Isabella, part of a group of teenagers being supported by the Villiers Park social mobility charity, has a real-world, life-changing decision that will depend on the outcome of the government's review of tuition fees in England.

    If the fees were to be cut to £5,000 or £6,000, she says it would make a "massive difference" to the level of debt and she would switch to applying to university.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/education-47116650

    Head...desk...thud....

    Justine Greening's solution looked sensible enough to be fair.
    The problem with her solution wasn't on the student end (as it wouldn't have really made any difference regards what they paid, it was really just a rebranding), it was the unis end. It would result in lots of unis shutting down, if you think that is a good or bad thing is another matter.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    DUP's Sammy Wilson says his party will not back the #Brexit deal unless the backstop is removed, as it "does not honour [Theresa May's] own manifesto or the outcome of the referendum"

    Note: *removed*. Not assurances, not a time limit, not a codicil, not an exchange of letters, not a unilateral exit mechanism. REMOVED.

    The DUP are signalling they cannot and will not support the May backstop under any configuration or circumstance.

    twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1092760450331160577

    Better get stocked up on bog roll, no deal exit here we come.
    I'd expect anti (Northern) Irish sentiment to increase in Great Britain.

    Personally if I was Theresa May I'd tell the DUP that if No Deal happens then she'll trigger an Irish unity referendum.

    God I hate Sammy Wilson, the man's an anti Catholic bigot.
    He's a DUP MP; what do you expect? It really is difficult for those who haven't had even the tiny amount of experience of it that I've had, to appreciate the anti-Catholic hostility in some Unionists.
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