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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » January 2019 Local By-Elections
Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind
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Its looking like a series loss to me
Isn't there a provision for suspension in the solicitors disciplinary process? Pharmacists can get struck off, suspended for up to a year (which may be repeated), ordered to only work under supervision and so on.
Decent LD performance in Warlingham yesterday.
We do have a significant round of local elections in three months and the Conservatives will be defending 5,500 seats won on the night of Cameron's GE victory in 2015. That looks a tall order and it's not unreasonable to expect some losses but the scale of those losses is much harder to work out.
We also have UKIP which gained 175 seats that night and it might be questionable how many of these will be retained.
The West Indies, for all their faults, have an opening pair who have actually tried to play test cricket.
His dog is called 'Truman'.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1091368546150612992
Are we looking at the next Veep here?
Or even more?
The lack of a decent opening pair unbalances the entire team, which I think would look very different indeed if only we could see off the new ball. Obviously Bairstow isn't a natural test 3 either, but I think he's making a decent fist of it, and is a class act.
We could do with a bowler of genuine pace, too.
https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/1091308916879884288
This is because non-Test first class cricket is dead. All the rewards come from playing the short form. So those are the players we have.
EDIT: Anyhow, Moeen has taken a wicket now and the collapse is on. We might yet sneak a first-innings lead!
That is insane.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/cory-booker-running-president-2020/581797/
Whereas Gabbard has about as much chance of getting the Democratic nomination as Donald Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/01/leave-eu-arron-banks-insurance-company-fined-data-breaches-information-commissioner-audit
https://www.denverpost.com/2019/01/31/john-hickenlooper-moderate-presidential-candidate/
EDIT: We'll be winning this test match - and the series. It's the Windies.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/01/cory-booker-2020-election-1141619
#CorbynsCustomsUnion
#CorbynsCustomsConcordProtocol
or
#CCCP for short.
Beware of extrapolation from small datasets.
Tory losses nailed on: the question is whether simply losses or a collapse.
If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.
The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”
According to the monthly snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, which is closely watched by the Bank of England and the Treasury for early warning signs from the UK economy, British factories in January raised their stocks at the fastest pace since records began in the early 1990s.
To be honest I think any extension beyond a technical one of 2 months will eventually lead to us not leaving. Very easy to just say "we need more time" as each deadline approaches.
As it's looking like a second referendum is dead for the time being, I think remainer types will eventually fall into line behind May's deal. It offers a transition period, which is ideal for anyone wanting to campaign on a "it's not too late to cancel Brexit and rejoin" platform. Things may look very different in 2020, and the EU could obviously make it easy for us to abandon the transition and regain membership, if they desired.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/revealed-plan-to-deal-with-putrefying-stockpiles-of-rubbish-after-no-deal-brexit
Must admit this is a Brexit effect I was entirely unaware of.
A line has to be drawn *somewhere*.
The significance of any delay is that it shatters Mrs May's repeated insistence that the UK is leaving the EU on the 29 March. Once the government's commitments are shown to be worthless it opens the door for a more genuine discussion about quite why we would want to continue any further down this path towards ridicule, isolation and self harm.
Irrespective of whether we leave with or without a deal, Q2 will see this unwind somewhat. (Indeed, unless inventories continue to expand at the current pace, GDP *growth* will soften from this factor alone.)
how was warhorse?
went to see MQ of S but was very disappointed. leading actresses were good but the script/editing left me quite bored to be honest. I was more interested trying to identify the locations they used (which I did pretty well on I think). and I was amused by the travelling scenes that had so few extras they could have almost have been out of monty python with a man with a couple of coconuts pretending to be the horse. of course this could have been historically accurate.
“EA officials should not carry the can for the failings of government to get a deal through ..."
And of course it works. You end up gagging to see it.
But if you're still not sure I'd be happy to step in to take your place.
The whole story seems like a load of bullshit.
(I'll get my coat)
Directed by Jean Claude Juncker, produced by Jacob Rees Mogg and starring Ordinary Decent British People.
What discussion and compromise has he ever had or proposed with Israel?
I think Occam's razor applies and Corbyn is simply genuinely friends with the likes of Venezuela, Iran, Russia, Hamas etc.
My first thought is he won't be a micro-manager like May and I suspect the day-to-day business of Government will be left to John McDonnell who I think will be much more in the tradition of Labour "iron" Chancellors. Those who try to go round him through Corbyn will get short shrift.
Corbyn will take more interest in foreign policy but to be fair the Prime Minister is really the FS in modern times - from Robin Cook onwards, the FS has really been a cipher with the real power at No. 10 (and sometimes No.11).
I also suspect he won't enjoy it at all.
"The largest recorded temperature change in one place over a 24-hour period occurred on January 15, 1972 in Loma, Montana, when the temperature rose from −54 to 49 °F (−47.8 to 9.4 °C). The most dramatic temperature changes occur in North American climates susceptible to Chinook winds." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_temperature_extremes