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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise
Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum.
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Ireland because to do so is to concede on their main requirement of a soft border. Even though No Deal achieves the same effect and comes with additional nasties. In that case you have the [very high probability] prospect of sorting things out later while keeping the backstop. Conceding now cements the bad result.
Ireland psychologically and politically: No-one in Ireland voted for Brexit. No-one wants it. It is something imposed on them by a foreign government that apparently doesn't wish Ireland well. Will people in Ireland blame Varadakar for not giving in to British aggression, so they end up in No Deal? Unlikely.
EU: If it concedes over the backstop it prioritises a non-member over a member.The EU won't survive as an institution if it does that.For that reason too, other member states will back Ireland,when push comes to shove.
(Attractions of No Deal)
I agree with Philip Hammond that an extension without a purpose for the extension is pointless. It's unlikely, however, that a decision made in a blind panic is going to be a good one.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/426828-former-colorado-governor-says-he-will-make-2020-decision-within-next-few-weeks
In that case for the government
To dissolve reality
And construct another?
(apols to BB)
We’re heading for no deal, the question the government is working on is who carries the can.
My mother always said it was when they got rid of the park keepers - she always said that was then civil behaviour began to deteriorate. I thought she was foolish but perhaps she had a point. I've worked for too many organisations (including my current one) where they understand the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Somewhere, and I'm going to try not to apportion blame to individuals or even to political parties, we lost our appreciation of the value of society, community, each other and possibly ourselves.
It all became about self-enhancement via material acquisition, the measurement of a good life by the things you had and for those who didn't or couldn't have "the nice things" in life inevitably appeared darker, bleaker, less hopeful, less worth living.
If you have a park, it always looks better when it's looked after but we would rather have our own money and buy the things we want than pay to have someone look after our park.
I think Mum was right after all.
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1088727361741352960
Nothing wrong with thinking deeply - unless it's against site rules ??
If we do go to No Deal and Corbyn has not backed EUref2 with a Remain option he will also be hit as Labour Remainers move to the LDs as polls suggest
The biggest negative of Brexit is currently the uncertainty. People cannot plan and therefore either don't act or act on a potential worse case scenario which may not be necessary. One of my friends was in the Court of Session this week getting approval for the legal seat of a well known insurer to be transferred to Dublin. Whether that makes any real difference in their operations or employment here remains to be seen but I very much doubt it would have happened if people only knew what the outcome is going to be. We need this resolved. Now.
I think that sentiment is very widely felt though rarely expressed. It's not revolutionary but de-evolutionary - it's the eradication of progress and advancement.
Brexit is a whimpering decline, not a bang.
http://www.hatads.org.uk/catalogue/record/871c3199-dfab-4e22-9197-4e805155b2f0
It has been living high on the hog in no small part to a cheap land bridge to the EU provided mostly by the Uk taxpayer (the French contributed to the tunnel too).
The ROI has taken access to this for granted and is led by a small petty fool who was happy to curry favour at home by poking the Uk with a stick.
This is a mess entirely of their own making.
https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1088573769243914240
Shortest route to a deal is some adjustment to that. Relying on a large chunk of Labour or the SNP to support any deal is never happening.
Divorce makes you poorer. in economic terms, no one would get divorced as it makes both sides poorer. Yet we still do it, as it's better than being trapped in a marriage where no one is happy.
Brexit might make us poorer, but economics is not the driving factor here, and maybe it shouldnt be.
I think you might have them confused with the Jezziah and his disciples.
And the idea that everyone to the right of Sanders would be offended by the suggestion of caution regarding intervention is pretty curious, too.
There are better reasons to think he won't be president.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2019/01/24/the-trailer-why-no-one-is-treating-biden-like-a-front-runner/5c489eea1b326b29c3778c8a/
And yet we are solemnly told that xenophobia played no role in Brexit.
From my point of view the world is more complicated than that. There are plenty of people with relatively low incomes that have lavish lifestyles and vice versa. There a poor people quite at ease with multiculturalism, there are rich people cowering behind gates. There is no them and us really, just people. Those who perpetuate that a view of them vs. us do a disservice to the people they intend to help.
"I do note that the tories aren't beating Corbo over the head about Venezuela."
I suspect it's priced in. The enthusiasm of revolution often starts well with some good social measures but degenerates rapidly into dictatorship and repression. Even Cuba went along that path.
Fidel Castro did help to defuse the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 though. At its height, he called upon Kruschev to start World War Three by nuking Washington for the sake of socialism, happy for Cuba to perish towards that aim. Mr K then realised Fidel was barmy, and made haste to remove the Russian missiles.
World War Three averted.
Anyway, true believers always believe it's Farmer Jones causing all the bad things. Orwell had it right, and the US is a convenient scapegoat.
HOWEVER, the tweets calling him out on that thread were split remarkably evenly between those calling him a peacenik pussy, and those insinuating he was a traitor to the cause.
(And FWIW there was a Times opinion piece only this morning beating Corbyn about the head over Venezuela.)
Ireland can rightly be criticised for trying to play games over Brexit and for not being prepared for the consequences when their games failed. That is not xenophobic, just politics.
I'm afraid the more I see this, the more I'm inclined to blame David Cameron. The fault wasn't calling the Referendum in the first place - I understand the political rationale behind it - but how it was structured. As he had no improved terms, we could (and this could have been explained) have gone through a two-stage process:
Referendum 1: Either REMAIN in the EU or current terms or agree to allow the Government to seek terms under Article 50 to leave the European Union within 36 months (24 months for A50 and up to 12 months for preparation) of this vote.
Referendum 2: (within 36 months of referendum 1): Accept the Government and the EU's agreed Withdrawal Treaty or Reject and Leave the European Union immediately without a Deal.
I would have been happy with that. Unfortunately, control of the process was handed over to May and the Government and had it not been for Gina Miller Parliament would likely have been by-passed as well.
The trade off becomes certainty vs accountability. In a democracy, the latter always wins though I completely understand the uncertainty is mote than likely going to be economically difficult for many individuals and businesses not just in the UK but in the EU and possible elsewhere.
And you wonder why no one takes these suggestions seriously.
Hold a second referendum without the option to Remain (as that question has already been asked and answered). Deal or No Deal.
That said, xenophobia might account for the winning margin, that 2%.
That might not be palatable to you or them, but to say it is not within their gift is untrue.
The Conservative Party would fragment, its poll share would collapse and we might see by the time of the local elections two sets of Conservative candidates on every ballot paper - very little downside there as far as I can see and think of how many extra members and supporters UKIP would get? How we'd all chortle.
I'd largely agree with what Sanders wrote, I don't imagine Corbyn would disagree with it much but anything he wrote would be pulled apart though and why draw any focus to it. He supported Chavez but his support of Maduro seems to have extended to congratulating him on becoming president which was before he actually did anything. Happy to be corrected but I'm not sure he said much positive about his actual time in power.
Nobody whined that that was anti British Xenophobia...
Anyone can cite an exception for a generalised statement but that doesn't make the statement wholly invalid. We are a divided society and arguably always have been - the divisions are complex and not always evident but they do exist.
Is there resentment out there? Unquestionably, yes. Does everybody feel resentment toward someone else? Unquestionably, no but that doesn't obviate the existence of resentment per se.
*it won't
Merkel to her credit hasn't resorted to bashing the Brits like Macron and Leo - perhaps she isn't as desperate as they are to cling to power.
There is a growing view that we don't have enough time now to be ready by end March for any type of leave even if agreed today.
https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1088324161955659776
1. deal; or
2. extension and referendum.
Same as weeks if not months ago. And my money is on 1.
Now we know that is not true, the Miller case itself is in question, and in any case does not apply to revocation.
She reminds me of Muhammad Ali. Not any old version, but the one on display in October 1974, Zaire, the greatest single adversarial event in all of human history, Ali versus George Foreman with the heavyweight championship of the world on the line. The Rumble in the Jungle. What a fight that was. For seven rounds George pummelled Ali, who gloved up on the ropes, rarely hitting back, just soaking up the punishment. What became known, admiringly, as ‘rope a dope’ looked at the time like hapless floundering. And then came the 8th … In the middle of that round, Ali sensed that his opponent was all punched out and with exquisite timing he sprang to life and knocked Foreman’s block off. Ten seconds that shook the world!
Relevance to goings on in Westminster? Obvious, surely. The PM has been rope-a-doping Parliament for months now, allowing her critics to spout and shout, moan and groan, rail mightily against her intention to ensure a smooth and orderly exit from the European Union in accordance with the 2016 referendum. All to no avail, the protests, yet MPs have kept at it and I believe that they, like Foreman, are tumbling into a trap and we will soon see the equivalent in the House of Commons of that famous 8th round. MPs will finally tire and the PM, seizing her chance, will jump on them, pin them to the floor, and ram her negotiated exit from the EU right down their throats. As it were. I cannot predict the exact timing of this but it will come to pass. Mrs May is going to confound expectations and blow our socks off - just like Ali did all those years ago.
It's Re-animator May's Dead as a Dodo Bugger Me It's Alive Again!! Deal
The point is for whatever reason inadequate planning for the possibility of a LEAVE win was carried out and little thought, it seems, since then, on the possibilities of leaving without a Deal?
Thinking counter-intuitively can be very helpful - imagine the most unlikely thing that could happen, plan for it and work your way toward the more likely and probable options.
If the Tories win a majority, May doesn't need the DUP and can screw over Northern Ireland to get her deal through.
If Labour win, they'll negotiate a softer deal with a customs union. Then they'll probably need to offer a people's vote on that deal to get it passed through the Commons.
If it's a hung parliament then... er... Not sure. Probably deadlock continues.
The forecast for leaving was that business and investment would flee the UK, so he campaigned against it.
And now business and investment is fleeing the UK.
QED
Almost every aspect of our interaction with the EEC-->EU has shown up our politicians and civil service to be a clown troupe.
"We have had enough of experts"
That a member of the Government had the audacity to say that on live TV remains astonishing, but explains a great deal of why we are so fucked right now