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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dunfermline By-Election (Scottish Parliament) : October 24t

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  • First preferences

    Billy POLLOCK (Scottish Labour Party) 2,552
    Helen CANNON-TODD (Scottish National Party (SNP) 2,057
    Robin MUNRO (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1,009
    David ROSS (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 450
    Angela DIXON (Scottish Green Party) 183
    Judith RIDEOUT (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 183



  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Full result from Norfolk CC LD hold
    LD 1044 UKIP 565 Lab 442 Con 359 Green 80 Ind 61

    Shame MikeK has taken to his bed. First sign of kipper life all evening.

  • Dunfermline South council by-election is Lab - 3 and SNP +6 compared to 2012, I think
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AveryLP said:

    Full result from Norfolk CC LD hold
    LD 1044 UKIP 565 Lab 442 Con 359 Green 80 Ind 61

    Shame MikeK has taken to his bed. First sign of kipper life all evening.

    Perhaps not as UKIP vote was down from 704 in May
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Andy, I see just the text messages. No vidoes. However, the live coverage from BBC with half screen with text updates and half screen with live video usually work even from Italy.

    Text is better than nothing I suppose.
  • Andy, yes, but I miss the tables, the bored asleep faces of counters, tellers looking clueless and the candidates' arrivals! And the declaration. I hope to find it on youtube tomorrow
  • Dunfermline South council by-election is Lab - 3 and SNP +6 compared to 2012, I think

    http://www.scottishelections.org.uk/scotland/lby/dunfermlinesouth.php

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    BBC now speculating Labour lead is 2500-3000, i.e. much the same swing to Labour as other recent Scottish results. Tories to hold their deposit, not sure about the LDs, Greens and UKIP won't.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Result still about 30 minutes off.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    Gosh - Brian Taylor hasn't aged very well, has he! He looks about 40 years younger at the 1988 Govan by-election.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Got to be honest, my first reaction was to think what a good looking loon Brian Taylor was back in the 80's.
    AndyJS said:

    Gosh - Brian Taylor hasn't aged very well, has he! He looks about 40 years younger at the 1988 Govan by-election.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Correction - LD deposit thought to be safe and the Tories lagging in fourth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What are they doing showing the BBC2 ident which was last used in 1986?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will winning candidate have more votes than tim has posts ?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Neil said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    And Hancock of course, lest we forget.
    The idea that Hancock is holding on for fear of how UKIP would do in a by-election is just batty.
    Yes it would be. On the other hand the idea that the political class as a whole don't want a fuss over Yeo, Mercer and Hancock in case it eventually led to a resignation isn't batty - which is why i said lucky for them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MrJones said:

    Neil said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    And Hancock of course, lest we forget.
    The idea that Hancock is holding on for fear of how UKIP would do in a by-election is just batty.
    Yes it would be. On the other hand the idea that the political class as a whole don't want a fuss over Yeo, Mercer and Hancock in case it eventually led to a resignation isn't batty - which is why i said lucky for them.
    Why would Hancock resign - not even been charged.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    TGOHF said:

    MrJones said:

    Neil said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    And Hancock of course, lest we forget.
    The idea that Hancock is holding on for fear of how UKIP would do in a by-election is just batty.
    Yes it would be. On the other hand the idea that the political class as a whole don't want a fuss over Yeo, Mercer and Hancock in case it eventually led to a resignation isn't batty - which is why i said lucky for them.
    Why would Hancock resign - not even been charged.
    Sometimes people resign because of fuss - regardless of what did or didn't happen. I'm saying the total lack of fuss over Yeo, Mercer and Hancock is unusual - or maybe it's not now. Maybe it's the new normal.
  • Kieran Andrews ‏@C_KAndrews ora
    Neither @S_A_Somerville or @cara_hilton are in the count venue yet. Apparently Lab aren't bringing their candidate in before the SNP. Mature

    LOL!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MrJones said:

    TGOHF said:

    MrJones said:

    Neil said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    And Hancock of course, lest we forget.
    The idea that Hancock is holding on for fear of how UKIP would do in a by-election is just batty.
    Yes it would be. On the other hand the idea that the political class as a whole don't want a fuss over Yeo, Mercer and Hancock in case it eventually led to a resignation isn't batty - which is why i said lucky for them.
    Why would Hancock resign - not even been charged.
    Sometimes people resign because of fuss - regardless of what did or didn't happen. I'm saying the total lack of fuss over Yeo, Mercer and Hancock is unusual - or maybe it's not now. Maybe it's the new normal.
    For every Huhne the is an Andrew Mitchell.


  • Shirley Ann has arrived now. So Cara can follow...
  • Agents called.

    Labour candidate still missing...
  • Cara Hilton has arrived
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.
  • that sounds scary!
    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any guesses on whether the Tories have saved their deposit?
  • I believe they are supposed to have saved it
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Soon to be MSP
    https://twitter.com/ScottishPol/status/393539898822508544/photo/1

    10% majority suggested. It would be a 6% swing. Donside swing was 9.1%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My bandwidth is struggling to cope with the video just at the crucial time.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I didn't catch the title, it was I think a Scottish folk song.

    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Face for radio.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Lab 10275
    SNP 7402
    LD 2852
    Con 2009
    UKIP 908
    Grn 593
    Ind 161

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Others were LD 2852 Con 2009 Gr 593 UKIP 908, Ind 161.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cara Hilton reminds me of Laura Harring from David Lynch's 2001 film Mulholland Dr.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Cara giving a more vigorous and mildly original speech than we usually see at by-elections - should do well.
  • Lab 42.45867769
    SNP 30.58677686
    LD 11.78512397
    Con 8.301652893
    UKIP 3.752066116
    Green 2.450413223
    Jacobites 0.665289256
  • SNP -7
    Lab +6.8
    LD -7.9
    Con +1.2
  • good night all as I am really tired. Thankfully, tomorrow morning I can sleep...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory percentage increases in by-elections are a rare occurrence.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    America's Team will play the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley next year.

    It's one of the 3 games at Wembley next season, up from 2 this year, and it looks like 4 games in London in 2015.

    The NFL is bound and determined, for whatever reason, to have a London based franchise in the next decade or so, and a Superbowl at Wembley.

    The logistics of making this work are nightmarish, but they feel there's money to be made by extending the NFL to London.

    It means they either have to move an existing team to London (Jacksonville?), or add at least 2 new teams including the London team. Given the current shortage of good quarterbacks, the latter seems unlikely.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Curtis summarises:

    About as expected. Labour swing slightly lower than Don but Don vote featured a lost personal vote, so in his view comparable. Tory result marginally up but still basically stagnating. Very bad LibDem result in what used to be a good seat for them, UKIP result also fairly weak. Both Lab and SNP speeches unusually combative - not much love breaking out between the candidates and commentator observes there's a real chasm between between the rival camps.

    Nite all!
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    fitalass said:

    I didn't catch the title, it was I think a Scottish folk song.

    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
    google is my friend

    apparently it was this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Dundee
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Ahh, Brian Taylor is a Dundee lad.

    fitalass said:

    I didn't catch the title, it was I think a Scottish folk song.

    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
    google is my friend

    apparently it was this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Dundee
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Andrea, despite the Conservatives having absolutely no shout in this by-election, its interesting that their vote held up and increased slightly despite UKIP standing this time around.

    SNP -7
    Lab +6.8
    LD -7.9
    Con +1.2

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    Tory percentage increases in areas of Scotland where they are not normally strong are indeed a rare occurrence. What makes it even more notable, is the fact they are currently in power at Westminster and UKIP also stood this time in the by-election.
    AndyJS said:

    Tory percentage increases in by-elections are a rare occurrence.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    fitalass said:

    Ahh, Brian Taylor is a Dundee lad.

    fitalass said:

    I didn't catch the title, it was I think a Scottish folk song.

    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
    google is my friend

    apparently it was this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Dundee
    its a nice song :)

    I have also once bravely kissed a lassie in the environs of Dundee.



  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Do you come from Scotland?

    fitalass said:

    Ahh, Brian Taylor is a Dundee lad.

    fitalass said:

    I didn't catch the title, it was I think a Scottish folk song.

    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
    google is my friend

    apparently it was this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Dundee
    its a nice song :)

    I have also once bravely kissed a lassie in the environs of Dundee.



  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour's vote was 10,275 compared to 10,420 in 2011.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited October 2013
    fitalass said:

    Do you come from Scotland?

    fitalass said:

    Ahh, Brian Taylor is a Dundee lad.

    fitalass said:

    I didn't catch the title, it was I think a Scottish folk song.

    fitalass said:

    Scottish political journalist turns his hand to busking to entertain us while we await the result, he did surprisingly well. :)

    that sounds scary!

    fitalass said:

    Brian Taylor now singing while the panel in the BBC studio await the imminent announcement of the Dunfermline by -election result.

    what was the song?
    google is my friend

    apparently it was this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_to_Dundee
    its a nice song :)

    I have also once bravely kissed a lassie in the environs of Dundee.



    Originally from Stoke-on-Trent, England, but I lived in Glasgow for almost 10 years. I also have some relatives in Orkney, so I've spent a little time up there too.
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