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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dunfermline By-Election (Scottish Parliament) : October 24t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited October 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dunfermline By-Election (Scottish Parliament) : October 24th 2013

Result of the Scottish Parliament in 2011: SNP 69, Lab 37, Con 15, Lib Dem 5, Green 2, Ind 1 (SNP overall majority of 9)
Result of constituency at last election: SNP 11,010 (38%), Lab 10,420 (36%), Lib Dem 5,776 (20%), Con 2,093 (7%) SNP GAIN from Lib Dem
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour must be favourites to win this by about 1,000 votes.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2013
    Why change the thread for a result which wont appear before morning?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Labour must be favourites to win this by about 1,000 votes.

    Labour were strong odds on favourites with prices tending to shorten during the campaign.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour hold Charnwood Loughborough Hastings
    Lab 554 Con 117 UKIP 111 Brit Dem 85 LD 26
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    edited October 2013
    MikeK said:

    Why change the thread for a result which wont appear before morning?

    Ours is not reason why, ours is but to do and die :)
  • AndyJS said:

    Labour must be favourites to win this by about 1,000 votes.

    They are hoping for a lot bigger maj than 1000.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192
    FPT

    Tim said
    Don't know if anyone has watched Educating Yorkshire

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/24/educating-yorkshire-channel-4-stammer

    Just finished watching it on +1. Mr Burton is a genuine hero. The Head was pretty classy too.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    SeanT around?

    If so, he should 'fess up.

    How many of these hilarious Mumsnet spoofs [at least I assume they're spoofs..] are his work? The URL gives you the flavour...

    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/i-found-my-husband-arousing-himself-with-a-knife-sharpener-the-joy-of-mumsex-8901120.html
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 9s
    Is there a single government policy government supporter Tim Fallon actually agrees with.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    MikeK said:

    Why change the thread for a result which wont appear before morning?

    Ours is not reason why, ours is to do or die :)
    Comrade Sunil

    Are you back to consorting with the class enemy, now that you have returned to wage slavery?

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    congrats Sunil.
  • Tom Gordon ‏@ScottishPol ora
    Tory prediction of >2k majority for Lab in #Dunfermline
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Knife sharpner, the guy is not the sharpest tool in the box.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,192
    Congratulations Sunil. All the very best.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Wigan - Winstanley

    Marie MORGAN (Labour Party Candidate) 746
    Andrew COLLINSON (UK Independence Party) 421
    Stan BARNES (Community Action Party) 326
    Michael WINSTANLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 180
    Steven HEYES (The Green Party Candidate) 55
    David BOWKER (Independent) 27
    John SKIPWORTH (Liberal Democrats) 19

    Lab hold

  • dr_spyn said:

    Knife sharpner, the guy is not the sharpest tool in the box.

    Just as well...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Wigan Winstanley Labour hold

    Lab 746 UKIP 421 CAP 326 Con 100 Green 55 Ind 27 LD 19
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Charnwood - Shepshed West
    Lab 683 Con 560 LD 179
    Lab gain from C


  • Great news, Sunil.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Charnwood Shepshed West Labour gain from Conservative

    Lab 683 Con 560 LD 178
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited October 2013

    Tom Gordon ‏@ScottishPol ora
    Tory prediction of >2k majority for Lab in #Dunfermline

    Yikes. A lot tighter than expected. The SNP price hit 8/1 this morning, which does not indicate close contest.
  • Great news, Sunil.

    You mean the Labour gain on Charnwood? Kidding!

    Thanks, Richard :)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    The benchmark for Dunfermline are the 2012 locals where Lab was around 3,500 or 17% ahead.

    In Donside the by-election result showed a similar % lead of 2012 locals in the constituency.
  • FWIW

    Peter Swindon ‏@PeterSwindon 15m
    Hearing that #Labour majority in #Dunfermline could be around 1000 but some senior party sources say that's optimistic. Depends on turnout.

    Sounds like SLAB expectation management.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Labour is always good at expectation management. SLAB is also good at crap results recently too
  • The benchmark for Dunfermline are the 2012 locals where Lab was around 3,500 or 17% ahead.

    In Donside the by-election result showed a similar % lead of 2012 locals in the constituency.

    Yes. I have been assuming a Lab Maj of approx 3000 to 4000. Much bigger and Lamont has done well. Much smaller and questions will be asked.
  • Wirral

    Lab 1934
    Con 762
    Green 143
    LD 130

    lab hold
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Wirral Upton Labour hold

    Lab 1954 Con 762 Green 143 LD 130
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Tory tweets saying they've lost some tactical votes to Labour - could be (1) true or (2) trying to diminish Labour success or (3) trying to excuse bad Tory result. Who knows?

    Good Hastings results to be going on with - it'll be a surprise if we don't retake Hastings in 2015.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
  • For those interested, the draft Court of Appeal (Recording and Broadcasting) Order 2013 was approved by a resolution of the House of Lords on Tuesday. If the Lord Chancellor makes the Order as is expected, the televising of the Court of Appeal will begin on Monday.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    West Sussex CC Con hold

    Con 868 UKIP 335 Green 119 LD 103 Lab 65
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    I fear of wachting STV and BBC...but let me guess

    Labour: gain, gain, no referendum, SNP obsessed, recovery, working hard, blah blah blah
    SNP: circumstances, it was hard for us, excellent candidate, positive campaign, midterm blah blah blah
    LD: we have held deposit! blah blah blah
    Con: our voters defected to Lab to save the union. blah blah blah
    Greens: our candidate is great but nobody votes for us anyway blah blah blah
    UKIP: It has been a nice campaign in Stirling. Are we in Stirling, right? Blah blah blah
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Tory tweets saying they've lost some tactical votes to Labour - could be (1) true or (2) trying to diminish Labour success or (3) trying to excuse bad Tory result. Who knows?

    Good Hastings results to be going on with - it'll be a surprise if we don't retake Hastings in 2015.

    The Hastings result is in Loughborough not Hastings !!!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    All in Wigan it seems

    Lab 746 UKIP 421 CAP 326 Con 100 Green 55 Ind 27 LD 19
  • I fear of wathcing STV and BBC...but let me guess

    Labour: gain, gain, no referendum, SNP obsessed, recovery, working hard, blah blah blah
    SNP: circumstances, it was hard for us, excellent candidate, positive campaign, midterm blah blah blah
    LD: we have held deposit! blah blah blah
    Con: our voters defected to Lab to save the union. blah blah blah
    Greens: our candidate is great but nobody votes for us anyway blah blah blah
    UKIP: It has been a nice campaign in Stirling. Are we in Stirling, right? Blah blah blah

    Andrea, you appear to have at least one crystal ball...
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Dunfermline South apparently has not been counted yet because of the local by-election also taking place
    It's where the Lab candidate is a Cllr but apparently also the area more affected by school clousure.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The benchmark for Dunfermline are the 2012 locals where Lab was around 3,500 or 17% ahead.

    In Donside the by-election result showed a similar % lead of 2012 locals in the constituency.

    Yes. I have been assuming a Lab Maj of approx 3000 to 4000. Much bigger and Lamont has done well. Much smaller and questions will be asked.
    John Curtice was saying that a minimum 4% swing should be the "floor" for Labour - not sure how that works out in votes.

  • STV player not working for me :-(
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    You think they would have resigned if UKIP hadnt been polling so well?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    I'm sure that UKIP will gain mometum again as the 2014 campaign gets under way. Don't forget that the MSM, especially the BBC dont feature UKIP, in contrast the other parties are constanly mentioned. Our time will come.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    edited October 2013
    MarkS/Andrea. Is the Winstanley in Wigan a relation of the great liberal Michael Winstanley? I notice that he's a Tory
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013

    MikeK said:

    Why change the thread for a result which wont appear before morning?

    Ours is not reason why, ours is but to do and die :)
    That's a quote from the 1985 film Clue, isn't it.

    See, I'm not as thick as you might think.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    It's enough to stuff the Tories.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    AndyJS said:

    MikeK said:

    Why change the thread for a result which wont appear before morning?

    Ours is not reason why, ours is but to do and die :)
    That's a quote from the 1985 film Clue, isn't it.

    See, I'm not as thick as you might think.
    Alfred Lord Tennyson.

    Charge of the Light Brigade

    'Forward, the Light Brigade!'
    Was there a man dismay'd?
    Not tho' the soldiers knew
      Some one had blunder'd:
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die:
    Into the valley of Death
      Rode the six hundred.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Curtice saying 1,000 Lab maj minimum they should be looking for 2.000 much more comfortable.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited October 2013
    Havant Waterloo Con hold

    Con 693 LD 446 UKIP 296 Lab 129
  • Hamilton South is a predictable Lab gain as Labour was way ahead on first preferences in 2012.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Ian Katz ‏@iankatz1000 58m
    FN's Marine Le Pen says Nigel Farrage "reticent" about forming alliance with her but "a lot of UKIP members would be happy to form alliance"



    do you think Cameron has slipped her a few Francs?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    Curiously the tories seem to be most confident of the result right now in expecting a labour win. Their intel has to be partially from the doorstep so they must have been hearing from some switchers. We shall see. Still looks like a narrow labour win so far.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Two days running we have two brilliant Marf cartoons in a single day!

    wonderfully generous of Sean T for drinks - thanks, dude. I hope to be able to make it, I'm starting a new job, albeit short-term, on the 4th."


    Congrats.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Norfolk CC is a Lib Dem hold with increased vote and majority , full result to come
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeK said:

    Why change the thread for a result which wont appear before morning?

    Ours is not reason why, ours is but to do and die :)
    That's a quote from the 1985 film Clue, isn't it.

    See, I'm not as thick as you might think.
    Alfred Lord Tennyson.

    Charge of the Light Brigade

    'Forward, the Light Brigade!'
    Was there a man dismay'd?
    Not tho' the soldiers knew
      Some one had blunder'd:
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die:
    Into the valley of Death
      Rode the six hundred.

    I knew that really, just being a bit silly. Tim Curry as Wadsworth the Butler says it in Clue of course.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Roger said:

    MarkS/Andrea. Is the Winstanley in Wigan a relation of the great liberal Michael Winstanley? I notice that he's a Tory

    or the Digger?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Cirencester TC The Beeches 2 seats LD 300/251 Con 207 Lab 130

    1 x LD hold 1 x LD gain from Con
  • They are now starting to open the postal votes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Green spokesman: "We might just miss out on Dunfermline". :-)
  • Roger: that's this Michael Winstanley. http://michaelwinstanley.co.uk/
    As he doesn't mention any relation, I guess he hasn't. Or maybe he's ashamed of a Liberal relative!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @NickPalmer

    What a defeatist!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited October 2013
    Hamilton South Labour gain from SNP

    Lab 1781 SNP 1120 Con 322 Christian 133 UKIP 86
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    And Hancock of course, lest we forget.
  • Hamilton South: Lab 1781 SNP 1120 Con 322 Christian 133 UKIP 86


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Where are UKIP in all these locals?

    Is it all a mirage?

    Where they are standing UKIP are doing moderately well, so far.
    But doing moderately well is not enough, Mike.

    The momentum of Rotherham and Eastleigh had to be followed through.
    Luckily for Mercer and Yeo.
    And Hancock of course, lest we forget.
    The idea that Hancock is holding on for fear of how UKIP would do in a by-election is just batty.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    They are now starting to open the postal votes.

    Andrea

    Why do they need to be opened?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    SNP tweets now turning sour - it's not about independence, Labour's poison has infected voters, Labour won in 2010 so no big deal, etc.
  • AndyJS said:

    "Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Two days running we have two brilliant Marf cartoons in a single day!

    wonderfully generous of Sean T for drinks - thanks, dude. I hope to be able to make it, I'm starting a new job, albeit short-term, on the 4th."


    Congrats.

    Thanks Andy.
  • Hamilton South Labour gain from SNP

    Lab 1781 SNP 1120 Con 322 Christian 133 UKIP 86

    And the good news just keeps on coming :)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pork very quiet tonight.
  • Shares in Hamilton South was on par with 2012. Except UKIP that didn't stand last year, all others are +/- 0.something
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Remarkable Havant Waterloo result, by the way, comparing with Harry's figures - Con and Lab collapse, LibDems do well. What was that about? What is the parliamentary seat there?
  • Nick, that ward is in Meon Valley constituency.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Courier reporting tallies with Labour at 4something% and SNP in low 30%

    It would be an ok score for SNP as they started at 37.6. Compared to Donside it would be a lower drop (some suggested it earlier today as Brian Adam obviously had a larger personal vote than Walker). As for Labour, it depends on how much they are over 40%.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Bed time . Nite,nite.
  • Official turnout 42.75%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    Looks like solid Labour hold, night!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Professor Curtice just done a very interesting segment on all the Indy Ref polling on BBC2 Scotland, really worth catching this on Iplayer if your interested and have missed it.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Andrea, that is a very common occurrence for me too. :)

    STV player not working for me :-(

  • fitalass, and BBC don't let me watch as I'm not from UK. During 2011 election night, STV worked. Thankfully. Not today. But at least I now know I am not the only one
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    Flooooooooooooooooooooooooower of Scooooooooooooooooooooooootland lalalala

    Or is it

    THe red flag ?
  • "SNP also denying that Nicola Sturgeon is in a nearby hotel."

    should we concerned about where Nicola is sleeping tonight?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    Or more to the point narrow Labour gain
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Andrea you are missing a treat on BBC2 Scotland, Scottish political editor Brian Taylor has just taken off his jacket to show off his bright orange braces. :)

    fitalass, and BBC don't let me watch as I'm not from UK. During 2011 election night, STV worked. Thankfully. Not today. But at least I now know I am not the only one

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Fitalass, yes, I read it on twitter. I am almost grateful of not being able to see BBC2!

    No signs of Shirley Ann and Cara Hilton? As long as they don't arrive, it means we are still away from declaration....still an hour to wait?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Tory MSP John Lamont just reporting on BBC that some Tory voters on the doorstep yesterday were saying that they were going to vote tactically for Labour in this by-election. That is an interesting development, because in recent years many have been voting tactically for the SNP to boot out or keep out Labour.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited October 2013
    BBC speculate result will be somewhere between 1 and 130. Tory sources now talking of a 13% Labour win, Labour tweets talking about a win of 2500, SNP tweets angry and downbeat - but as usual beware of expectations management. Everyone seems clear that Labour has won.
  • Ed Balls visited Dunfermline last week. Has any other Labour English frontbenchers done it during the campaign?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    Just saw a tweet suggesting about another 45mins to an hour until the declaration. Maybe around 1:30am at the earliest.

    Fitalass, yes, I read it on twitter. I am almost grateful of not being able to see BBC2!

    No signs of Shirley Ann and Cara Hilton? As long as they don't arrive, it means we are still away from declaration....still an hour to wait?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Live coverage from Newsnight Scotland:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24664199

    I don't know whether this is available outside the UK, such as Italy for example.
  • Tom Gordon: Lab maj 2,500/3,000. LD third, Con 4th and saved deposit. UKIP 5th and lost deposit. Green 6th
  • Andy, I see just the text messages. No vidoes. However, the live coverage from BBC with half screen with text updates and half screen with live video usually work even from Italy.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    What are the rules for how the Presiding Officer votes? The Commons Speaker normally doesn't vote (which in Scotland would leave the SNP with a majority of 1 if they lose tonight) but if there's a tie (e.g. one SNP member abstains), the Speaker votes against change (e.g. if a proposal would raise taxes he votes to keep them as they were).
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Labour has won the Dunfermline South council by-election. Stage VI
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Tom Gordon: Lab maj 2,500/3,000. LD third, Con 4th and saved deposit. UKIP 5th and lost deposit. Green 6th

    A sort of no one really wins result?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited October 2013
    Labour wins the Fife by-election (not very surprisingly). 4% swing to SNP compared with 2012 (when the SNP didn't do well). Tory vote unchanged, big LibDem drop.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Full result from Norfolk CC LD hold
    LD 1044 UKIP 565 Lab 442 Con 359 Green 80 Ind 61
This discussion has been closed.