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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday

I suspect whatever the outcome on Brexit Nigel Farage will be screaming betrayal as it will not be the precise type of Brexit he wants. I expect that screaming will be heard on Jupiter if Article 50 is extended or revoked. If Parliament does what pre referendum Farage suggested in the event of 52%/48% result in 2016 and hold another referendum then Farage might be very cross.

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Thanks for the header, TSE.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Lol! I saw the three 16-1 shots and that was the last one I thought TSE would tip. GoNU might not be a bad shot at 16-1.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    There's no problem that can't be made so much worse by the three words "just add Farage".

    Poor Peterborough. What an unholy triumvirate of MPs that would be on the bounce...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Interesting bet @TSE, I think it's unlikely but definitely worth a pint on the basis that literally anything could happen in the next few months!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    His intervention on that agenda would be a gift for Labour
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    IanB2 said:

    His intervention on that agenda would be a gift for Labour

    A Farage 'Brexit betrayal' party which gains some traction could be very useful for Labour.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    It doesn't seem likely enough to be value at 16/1. If you look at Peterboghorror's 2017 result he would need a 16% swing from both Labour AND the Blue Ba'ath to win it. Farage will undoubtedly be looking for another udder at which he can suckle but this isn't it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    TheJezziah said:

    IanB2 said:

    His intervention on that agenda would be a gift for Labour

    A Farage 'Brexit betrayal' party which gains some traction could be very useful for Labour.
    In Midland/Northern marginals? Maybe not so much....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    Reading that Sun report, it looks as if Farage's preference will be to stand for the European Parliament rather than Westminster, in the event that Article 50 is extended or revoked as some in the government intend.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    A way more restrictive pool of potential voters than for the nebulous "UK independence". It's basically the "A better Brexit than this" Party. If there is no Brexit at all, then the Conservative Party will split anyway, and the larger element (the one that feels robbed, the one with the bulk of the activists and members) will be bigger than anything Farage can organise. If there is some variant of May's deal approved, then the great mass of voters will go "meh...." and get on with life.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
    It snow joke...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
    It snow joke...
    Haven't you got to go and play with your large organ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
    It snow joke...
    Haven't you got to go and play with your large organ?
    Not just yet. Besides, I've been negotiating for a charming young lady to play with it for a bit...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    Will she be able to afford to do that? I mean, I know she's not poor but solicitors and MPs are hardly awash with cash.

    Also, question for our legal eagles. How does appealing work? Do you appeal immediately after the verdict (she hasn't) after sentencing or while serving the sentence?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    A seven-times-loser at 16/1 not to make it eight?

    Why not? Can't be worse than my 25/1 shot on Liverpool to win the premiership with Mo Salah top scorer
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    I know Peterborough very well as a Constituency. Winning depends on the ethnic minority community leaders. They will not support Farage.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I see from the papers that Bercow is considering staying on, I guess hoping for a Labour Govt so he can get his peerage..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    Not correct.

    Her appeal won’t be before her sentencing.

    If she’s sentenced for more than 12 months we have a by election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Or the Real Independence Party.

    R.I.P.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    SquareRoot said:

    I see from the papers that Bercow is considering staying on, I guess hoping for a Labour Govt so he can get his peerage..

    If we do ever get The Other Side of Brexit, a new PM and a new Speaker would be a good start at rebuilding.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    MarqueeMark said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Or the Real Independence Party.

    R.I.P.
    Sounds like a wrestling name.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    Not correct.

    Her appeal won’t be before her sentencing.

    If she’s sentenced for more than 12 months we have a by election.
    OK, that answers my question. Thanks.

    Out of curiosity, can you lodge an appeal before sentencing? Because if so it seems really odd she hasn't done so if she genuinely intends to appeal.

    Edit - my mistake, she has, although she doesn't appear to have said on what grounds:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46906006
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Nemtynakht said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Or the Real Independence Party.

    R.I.P.
    Sounds like a wrestling name.
    RIP him a new one?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    ydoethur said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Or the Real Independence Party.

    R.I.P.
    Sounds like a wrestling name.
    RIP him a new one?
    "The 7 times defeated....."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    Not correct.

    Her appeal won’t be before her sentencing.

    If she’s sentenced for more than 12 months we have a by election.
    OK, that answers my question. Thanks.

    Out of curiosity, can you lodge an appeal before sentencing? Because if so it seems really odd she hasn't done so if she genuinely intends to appeal.
    You can and she has.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,010
    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Farage needs to cut the crap & start putting English rather than UK in his brand. That's where the richly gammony pickings are to be had.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    Not correct.

    Her appeal won’t be before her sentencing.

    If she’s sentenced for more than 12 months we have a by election.
    OK, that answers my question. Thanks.

    Out of curiosity, can you lodge an appeal before sentencing? Because if so it seems really odd she hasn't done so if she genuinely intends to appeal.
    You can and she has.
    Be careful, I think we're in a time loop, since the main headline of No10 warning mps not to block brexit seems to be the same as last week.

    Not that it will stop them. They're close to their goal now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    Not correct.

    Her appeal won’t be before her sentencing.

    If she’s sentenced for more than 12 months we have a by election.
    OK, that answers my question. Thanks.

    Out of curiosity, can you lodge an appeal before sentencing? Because if so it seems really odd she hasn't done so if she genuinely intends to appeal.
    You can and she has.
    Be careful, I think we're in a time loop, since the main headline of No10 warning mps not to block brexit seems to be the same as last week.
    As it will be next week. And the next week. And......
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    An interesting tip. Hmm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Roger said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
    Given her defence at trial appeared to boil down to 'be sorry for me because being an mp is hard and I have an illness, and also I'm really stupid despite being legally trained' it'll be interesting to know her reasons for appeal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Roger said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
    Someone cynical? On pb.com? Better warn the moderators.....
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Theuniondivvie said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Farage needs to cut the crap & start putting English rather than UK in his brand. That's where the richly gammony pickings are to be had.
    I think he did but only one person seems to have been listening....

    https://www.newsweek.com/nigel-farages-fascist-neo-nazi-past-exposed-former-school-friend-489691
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Nemtynakht said:

    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip

    He couldn't even manage that in 2015. And in 2010 it was literally a plane crash. His campaigns are more GoKip than UKIP.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One big problem that Nigel Farage faces in getting elected is that there are now numerous Leave parties, including the Conservatives. In Peterborough, if he stood, there may be six: the Conservatives, Nigel Farage, UKIP, the SDP (aka Patrick O’Flynn), a City guy called Jeremy Hosking and D&V. There may even be others.

    To get elected, he would need to reunite the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists back under a single banner behind him. He might do it but in the meantime Labour would be expecting to benefit from the division of their opponents.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
    It's not like many the media will be staying up / getting up for it anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    AlastairMeeks said:

    To get elected, Farage would need to reunite the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists back under a single banner behind him.

    Surely Corbyn has that vote stitched up these days?

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Looking down that list of political 'specials' I can't see any odds that look at all special to me.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Theuniondivvie said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Farage needs to cut the crap & start putting English rather than UK in his brand. That's where the richly gammony pickings are to be had.
    You don't think there is room for a nationalist party in Scotland? ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    FPT:
    Charles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1086755125048283137

    That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
    I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.

    It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
    A ten year time limit on the backstop unless extended by an NI referendum might get there
    Though why would the EU agree to a backstop that isn't really an actual backstop?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    F1: man appointed to Renault leaves before starting his new role:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/46924987
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1086755125048283137

    That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
    I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.

    It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
    A ten year time limit on the backstop unless extended by an NI referendum might get there
    Though why would the EU agree to a backstop that isn't really an actual backstop?
    Given nobody wants it you'd think they'd go for the suggestion but clearly they won't regard themselves as winning if they concede on that. I hope they enjoy the hard border they claim not to want.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Pointer, also, you'd be giving one segment of UK territory an effective veto on foreign policy change, which isn't a terribly clever precedent to set.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    ydoethur said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip

    He couldn't even manage that in 2015. And in 2010 it was literally a plane crash. His campaigns are more GoKip than UKIP.
    Such a shame. He had such a beautiful voice when he was younger. We hoped for so much more....

    https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=tomorrow+belongs
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1086755125048283137

    That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
    I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.

    It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
    A ten year time limit on the backstop unless extended by an NI referendum might get there
    Though why would the EU agree to a backstop that isn't really an actual backstop?
    Well, in ten years time, all the EU players will have moved on, so it won't be them getting grief if it is still a thing?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    edited January 2019
    Roger said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
    +1. None of us have been in court to hear the case (I've not followed it closely either), and the juries that did first were unable to agree at all and then on the retrial took a long time, so evidently it wasn't seen as an open and shut case. I think Labour has been a bit quick to throw her out and demand that she resigns, and several posters here are prejudging the process too. The sentencing will decide shortly whether she has to quit, but independently of politics and if she does resign she's still entitled to have her appeal considered in the usual way.

    The position will be odd, though, if she's forced out due to sentence and then wins her appeal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    AlastairMeeks said:

    One big problem that Nigel Farage faces in getting elected is that there are now numerous Leave parties, including the Conservatives. In Peterborough, if he stood, there may be six: the Conservatives, Nigel Farage, UKIP, the SDP (aka Patrick O’Flynn), a City guy called Jeremy Hosking and D&V. There may even be others.

    To get elected, he would need to reunite the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists back under a single banner behind him. He might do it but in the meantime Labour would be expecting to benefit from the division of their opponents.

    Labour 1st, NEWKIP 2nd, Tories 3rd
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,010
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I wonder what party he could possible stand for ? Maybe as an independent

    He's thought of that. Farage is starting his own party, The Brexit Party.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8236819/nigel-farage-new-brexit-party/
    He could call it the Real United Kingdom Independence Party!
    Farage needs to cut the crap & start putting English rather than UK in his brand. That's where the richly gammony pickings are to be had.
    You don't think there is room for a nationalist party in Scotland? ;)
    Voting suggests none with Farage anywhere in evidence. One of the oddities of the constitutional situation here is that despite Ruthy's affectation of progressiveness, almost all the xenophobes, racists & fruitcakes vote SCon. Some of them even become elected members.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1086905991256526848
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2019
    NickPalmer said:

    Roger said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
    +1. None of us have been in court to hear the case (I've not followed it closely either), and the juries that did first were unable to agree at all and then on the retrial took a long time, so evidently it wasn't seen as an open and shut case. I think Labour has been a bit quick to throw her out and demand that she resigns, and several posters here are prejudging the process too. The sentencing will decide shortly whether she has to quit, but independently of politics and if she does resign she's still entitled to have her appeal considered in the usual way.

    The position will be odd, though, if she's forced out due to sentence and then wins her appeal.
    perhaps if you read the case you might have a more clear picture of the reasons for her being found guilty.. who knows why the jury took so long.. it might have been 11-1 and the 12th needed a lot time to consider their verdict,.. we just don't know. and taking a long time to decide, does not give any indication as to whether it was open and shut or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    NickPalmer said:

    Roger said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
    +1. None of us have been in court to hear the case (I've not followed it closely either), and the juries that did first were unable to agree at all and then on the retrial took a long time, so evidently it wasn't seen as an open and shut case. I think Labour has been a bit quick to throw her out and demand that she resigns, and several posters here are prejudging the process too. The sentencing will decide shortly whether she has to quit, but independently of politics and if she does resign she's still entitled to have her appeal considered in the usual way.

    The position will be odd, though, if she's forced out due to sentence and then wins her appeal.
    -1
    I think you are being harsh on people responding to the case. She is entitled to appeal but there is nothing unreasonable for any member of the public to consider her a criminal at the present time. Since when must we wait until the appeal processes have been exhausted to express condemnation of convicted criminals? Why shouldn't a political party act upon a conviction? That's sensible on their part - if she wins they can apologise, although if it is on a technicality that might not be warranted, and if she doesn't they'd have stuck with a criminal.

    Yes none of us were there and there's appeals to go through, but follow your logic and no one should comment at all until the final appeal is done and not even the courts require that. As of now she's a criminal. Whether she is acquitted at appeal we know from quoted sections of the trial she defended herself in part by claiming stupidity (If not in those exact words). There is nothing unreasonable at the present moment, about taking a stance that this convicted criminal should not be in the commons. Even if she ultimately wins her appeal we can respond to that new info then, we do not need to defer judgement. After all, the judge isn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    NickPalmer said:

    Roger said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Given that the.criminal is appealing her conviction, there is no immediate prospect of her leaving the commons. Indeed she seems to show every likelihood of sticking around for as long as possible.

    I don't see a by election there in the short term. She will continue to appeal everything possible to keep receiving her salary.

    The whole thing stinks.

    That's a bit cynical. I don't see why appealing her convicton and not resigning until her appeal is heard 'stinks'.
    +1. None of us have been in court to hear the case (I've not followed it closely either), and the juries that did first were unable to agree at all and then on the retrial took a long time, so evidently it wasn't seen as an open and shut case. I think Labour has been a bit quick to throw her out and demand that she resigns, and several posters here are prejudging the process too. The sentencing will decide shortly whether she has to quit, but independently of politics and if she does resign she's still entitled to have her appeal considered in the usual way.

    The position will be odd, though, if she's forced out due to sentence and then wins her appeal.
    The impression I got from following the media reports was that, in terms of balance of probabilities, the case looked very open and shut indeed. Establishing proof to the standard required in court is of course a different matter.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    Are all these things new? The only ones I remember people talking about when I was a kid were blue moons and Halley’s Comet
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
    It snow joke...
    Haven't you got to go and play with your large organ?
    Not just yet. Besides, I've been negotiating for a charming young lady to play with it for a bit...
    Have you informed her it’s a time limited arrangement?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1086905991256526848

    Not in the class of this one:
    http://www.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1066017330017288192
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1086905991256526848

    That must have been some disaster to see the clock tower hit downing street! Damn visual metaphors.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    They're bigging it up so much they're pretty much guaranteeing a cloudy night.
    It snow joke...
    Haven't you got to go and play with your large organ?
    Not just yet. Besides, I've been negotiating for a charming young lady to play with it for a bit...
    Have you informed her it’s a time limited arrangement?
    I don't have a backstop. All mine are in either side where I can feel them when I want to. Although come to think of it there is a hole bang in the middle at the front where I go in when I want a full climax.

    Have a good morning.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MarqueeMark said:

    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1086755125048283137

    That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
    I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.

    It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
    A ten year time limit on the backstop unless extended by an NI referendum might get there
    Though why would the EU agree to a backstop that isn't really an actual backstop?
    Well, in ten years time, all the EU players will have moved on, so it won't be them getting grief if it is still a thing?
    And it should be enough time to negotiate an FTA
  • TheAncientMarinerTheAncientMariner Posts: 227
    Fenman said:

    I know Peterborough very well as a Constituency. Winning depends on the ethnic minority community leaders. They will not support Farage.

    Consider the implications of that sentence.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Charles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Media creaming themselves about tonight's "super blood wolf moon". Woooooo!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46908305

    Are all these things new? The only ones I remember people talking about when I was a kid were blue moons and Halley’s Comet
    Halley's ain't back until 2061, so I guess they got bored waiting.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1086905991256526848

    Not in the class of this one:
    http://www.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1066017330017288192
    Actually I think the first is better. It's not merely her not responding to disaster but the reason of it within the picture, I think it superior.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    Fenman said:

    I know Peterborough very well as a Constituency. Winning depends on the ethnic minority community leaders. They will not support Farage.

    The seat is 75% white.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/peterborough/
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.
    I am glad I am going to be in the tranquility and order of Mumbai when VE Day 2.0 rolls around.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited January 2019
    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Nemtynakht said:

    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip

    Why wouldn’t racists vote for Farage? He’s backed white supremacists, attacked Jews and spent years pandering to xenophobia. He’s one of them.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Perhaps they’re just talking about Parliament ?
    Wouldn’t be the way I’d choose to get down to 600 MPs, though.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    SquareRoot said:


    perhaps if you read the case you might have a more clear picture of the reasons for her being found guilty.. who knows why the jury took so long.. it might have been 11-1 and the 12th needed a lot time to consider their verdict,.. we just don't know. and taking a long time to decide, does not give any indication as to whether it was open and shut or not.

    You may well be right, though I think there must have been at least two doubters to prevent a majority verdict (but legal experts here may know more). Certainly skimming the case it didn't sound good. But in general in non-political cases I'd wait for the process to complete before calling the defendant a criminal, and I think that nearly everyone (including my party, who clearly want to move on) has a political axe to grind here.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    I forgot the architect's name, but Downing Street originally had more houses when it was constructed in the 17th century. Most of them were, er, less than structurally magnificent, however. So there's only four, I think, original buildings left.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    A (rather unlikely) route by which May’s deal might get through:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-deal-vote-theresa-may-second-referendum-vote-election-yvette-cooper-a8736216.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    Stockpiling guns seems a bit excessive for now. One for each person in the household plus a spare should be adequate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    SouthamObserver said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip

    Why wouldn’t racists vote for Farage? He’s backed white supremacists, attacked Jews and spent years pandering to xenophobia. He’s one of them.

    Yes, but the far right are splitters. Farage doesn't hate Muslims enough.

    Farage standing would be good for Labour, by splitting the Leave vote and motivating Labour turnout. There is a reason Farage couldnt get elected in FPTP.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    A friend of mine was a FAC in Bosnia. His observation was that once society fell apart it didn't matter how well armed you were; what was more important was being part of a larger group. Anybody on their own or a single family got robbed, raped and killed pretty quickly by larger groups. Get friendly with your neighbours!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Foxy said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip

    Why wouldn’t racists vote for Farage? He’s backed white supremacists, attacked Jews and spent years pandering to xenophobia. He’s one of them.

    Yes, but the far right are splitters. Farage doesn't hate Muslims enough.

    Farage standing would be good for Labour, by splitting the Leave vote and motivating Labour turnout. There is a reason Farage couldnt get elected in FPTP.

    Yep - presumably the Tory candidate would be clearly on the Leave side, too.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    A friend of mine was a FAC in Bosnia. His observation was that once society fell apart it didn't matter how well armed you were; what was more important was being part of a larger group. Anybody on their own or a single family got robbed, raped and killed pretty quickly by larger groups. Get friendly with your neighbours!
    I am an AA member, does that help?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1086755125048283137

    That is fleshing out more detail from JRM 's comments I reported from the mail this morning
    I think he's starting to sniff out he might just be giving cover for the defeat of Brexit and is looking for a way out.

    It's probably too little too late though. A combination of no backstop, no £39bn and May going is pretty unlikely, and I'm not sure he can could put all of the ERG back in its box even if he wanted to.
    A ten year time limit on the backstop unless extended by an NI referendum might get there
    Though why would the EU agree to a backstop that isn't really an actual backstop?
    Because currently their insistence on a backstop looks likely to create the very situation that the backstop was meant to avoid, and in two months, rather than 10 years. Something like this gives the EU a chance to climb down from this particular bit of stupidity on their part without being too badly humiliated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1086917630760550400
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. P, the answer is clear.

    https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1083020363326545920
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    A friend of mine was a FAC in Bosnia. His observation was that once society fell apart it didn't matter how well armed you were; what was more important was being part of a larger group. Anybody on their own or a single family got robbed, raped and killed pretty quickly by larger groups. Get friendly with your neighbours!
    Or join the Lib Dems.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1086917630760550400

    Can you open the door to something, whilst keeping it on the table?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1086917630760550400

    Raab's at least has the honesty of an outcome, rather than just deferring a decision because she's too afraid to say the PM must open the door to remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    A friend of mine was a FAC in Bosnia. His observation was that once society fell apart it didn't matter how well armed you were; what was more important was being part of a larger group. Anybody on their own or a single family got robbed, raped and killed pretty quickly by larger groups. Get friendly with your neighbours!
    Safety in numbers - a story as old as time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Jonathan, if we removed the door and laid it across two stools, the door can be open *and* the table.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,010
    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    A friend of mine was a FAC in Bosnia. His observation was that once society fell apart it didn't matter how well armed you were; what was more important was being part of a larger group. Anybody on their own or a single family got robbed, raped and killed pretty quickly by larger groups. Get friendly with your neighbours!
    I am an AA member, does that help?
    The alcoholics will be first up against the wall.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1086917630760550400

    Raab's at least has the honesty of an outcome, rather than just deferring a decision because she's too afraid to say the PM must open the door to remain.

    Raab is profoundly dishonest about what the outcome of a No Deal Brexit will be. Didn’t Morgan vote for May’s deal?

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. P, the answer is clear.

    https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1083020363326545920

    Two men enter. Two years later, two men come back out again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Chris said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. P, the answer is clear.

    https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1083020363326545920

    Two men enter. Two years later, two men come back out again.
    Saying it was a bit tougher than they thought, could they have another two years please.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Jonathan said:

    Eerily quiet day so far. Not that much in the papers. A sense of bewilderment and fatigue about.

    Dan Hodges in the Mail quotes two Tories - one ERG, one Tory loyalist - who seem to be stockpiling and expecting civil unrest. One talks about “loading his shotgun” in readiness.

    Maybe I don’t get out much, but in this part of the Midlands civil unrest seems a very long way from happening. The vast majority of people - Remain or Leave - have better things to do than smash things up, or kill and injure those whose politics they do not share.
    Do I really need to stockpile? I don have a gun. Am I screwed? Do Fortnums do Brexit hampers?
    A friend of mine was a FAC in Bosnia. His observation was that once society fell apart it didn't matter how well armed you were; what was more important was being part of a larger group. Anybody on their own or a single family got robbed, raped and killed pretty quickly by larger groups. Get friendly with your neighbours!
    I am an AA member, does that help?
    The alcoholics will be first up against the wall.
    I love the idea of Alcoholics Anonymous Relay Plus. They get you home if you pass out at night and get you started in the morning.

    If the Brexit rapists and murderers come knocking on my door, they’ll find one on of those stickers that says I don’t deal with unsolicited callers. Should do the trick.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    SouthamObserver said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1086917630760550400

    Raab's at least has the honesty of an outcome, rather than just deferring a decision because she's too afraid to say the PM must open the door to remain.

    Raab is profoundly dishonest about what the outcome of a No Deal Brexit will be. Didn’t Morgan vote for May’s deal?

    I didn't say he was honest about the effect of the outcome, just that it was an outcome. I assume Morgan did vote for the deal, but the deal is dead and now other options are being considered, including remain, and a delay is just an excuse to not make a decision, not a decision. They do not need more time. Once they decide an extension might be needed to enact it, but no time is needed to make it. Delay is just an opportunity for people to continue to disagree so that remain becomes more viable. I'm confident about that given how many of the proponents of delay claim that we need to revoke first.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    SouthamObserver said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    I don’t even see it as a 100/1 shot.

    - Clearly Farage is not good at FPTP elections Even in UKIP the organisation required was not there.
    - He is so divisive he galvanises his opponents
    - UKIP is likely to go after the same sort of bye election and will peel off the racist vote
    - is Farage going to personally tarnished by the openly racist change in direction of UKIP?

    It might be possible for him to win in a chaotic GE where labour and Tories both split.

    Clearly Farage should call his party Newkip

    Why wouldn’t racists vote for Farage? He’s backed white supremacists, attacked Jews and spent years pandering to xenophobia. He’s one of them.

    Because Labour likes Jew baiting and is a comfortable home for a certain type of racist?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    kle4 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1086917630760550400

    Raab's at least has the honesty of an outcome, rather than just deferring a decision because she's too afraid to say the PM must open the door to remain.

    Raab is profoundly dishonest about what the outcome of a No Deal Brexit will be. Didn’t Morgan vote for May’s deal?

    I didn't say he was honest about the effect of the outcome, just that it was an outcome. I assume Morgan did vote for the deal, but the deal is dead and now other options are being considered, including remain, and a delay is just an excuse to not make a decision, not a decision. They do not need more time. Once they decide an extension might be needed to enact it, but no time is needed to make it. Delay is just an opportunity for people to continue to disagree so that remain becomes more viable.

    It’s not just a decision on the WA that’s needed for Brexit to happen in an orderly manner on 29th March. There is also a large amount of legislation that needs to be considered and voted on. There is not enough time for that to happen now, especially as the government has no timetable to present it to Parliament.

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