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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,733

    Thought experiment:

    What would Thatcher do?
    What would Churchill do?

    Thatcher: overrule the DUP and hold a border poll
    Churchill: overrule the electorate and revoke Article 50
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Nigelb said:

    Good articlle which prompts the question....

    Does anyone like Chris Grayling ?

    He is useful to keep around, like a minging mate. Anyone looks good standing next to him.
  • The Tories could offer the Lib Dems a Remain/Deal referendum on condition the LDs go into coalition with them for the next 3 years?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unless he’s loving it, it looks set to go on, so he’ll exploit every shred of vindictive against him as his excuse for staying put
    Well, if May won't give him a peerage, he ought to wait for PM Corbyn who may be a little more accommodating.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Omnium said:

    Thought experiment:

    What would Thatcher do?
    What would Churchill do?

    Thatcher - no deal, but we'd have the EU giving us 39bn
    Churchill - sit back and wait I guess. 'We will sit them out on the beaches'.

    Churchill was broadly in favour of some form of European integration. He'd not have joined the ERG and would be horrified at Ukip misusing his image.
    http://theconversation.com/what-churchill-really-thought-about-britains-place-in-europe-36613
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    kle4 said:


    Yes it does work, better than we'd all hope, I'm sure, but I'm none the wiser how people are going to be able to judge the impacts of no deal in an objective manner even if they want to.

    I fully agree we can't do an objective analysis because we are in unknown territory. However, to head straight to the worst possible scenario seems to me to be a defined political ploy.

    Many people do this in life, mentally game all the possible scenarios and then try to game the less possible scenarios on the basis of "what's the worst that could happen?". Take that to its logical conclusion and you'd never do anything.

    It comes down to risk management - in many situations simple measures can mitigate risk (it might rain so to stop getting wet I'll carry an umbrella or wear a hat. I'll have to deal with a wet umbrella or hat but I least the rest of me won't be wet) even if it can't eliminate it completely. Ensuring the country's food and power supplies are preserved and ensuring we have the medicines we need ought not to be too difficult and indeed an integral part of any risk analysis of the consequences of leaving without a Deal.

    I can't imagine any halfway competent Government hasn't prepared so I'm left to conclude the apparent signs of ill-preparedness are a political ploy meant to scare people into backing May and her Deal.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Roger said:
    No Edinburgh? I find that bizarre.

    And how is Madrid in any sense livable for 3 months of the summer with 40deg highs?

    Rekjyavik must be none too great for 3 months of the winter come to that.
    Indeed. I speak from experience- Madrid is fucking awful in the summer. Lovely outside that time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Pulpstar said:
    Some Tory - UKIP uncertain voters out there it seems.....
  • kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    We have been blessed with three polls tonight but I am not sure they have cleared the air at all!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    It was reported earlier. Who knows if it will get through? He does have quite a good track record though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,678

    Thought experiment:

    What would Thatcher do?
    What would Churchill do?

    Get the police on horseback to charge at the workers

    Talk to people on a Tube Train
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    viewcode said:

    Roger said:
    No Edinburgh? I find that bizarre.

    And how is Madrid in any sense livable for 3 months of the summer with 40deg highs?

    Rekjyavik must be none too great for 3 months of the winter come to that.
    No York. No Harrogate. No Winchester. No Bath. Yes Manchester. So obvs bollocks.
    Manchester is a great city.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Good to see Starmer going for it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    Most people will lack the time or knowledge to completely assess the full extent of any impact. You don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as both government and opposition say it will be, fine, we can all hope you are correct, but for that vast majority who do not understand these things how does one make a judgement on it when so many say it will be a disaster? Just blindly believing the worst stories is, I am sure, unwise, but blindly following others who insist it will be fine seems equally unwise.

    We touched on this before and as I had other things to do I couldn't properly respond to you.

    This is about fear as a political weapon and tool. If you make people scared enough they will agree to anything and follow anyone. Supporters of the WA basically only have Fear left now - it didn't work on the MPs so they are hoping it will work on the population who will force the MPs to reconsider and ultimately accept the Deal.

    Oddly enough, the same game is played with Corbyn as it was with Blair before him - make people (especially the elderly) believe a change in Government will mean their grandchildren will be sold into indentured servitude and they'll support the current Government whatever their reservations.

    Unfortunately, fear works and going negative is the political manifestation. We saw this in the 2016 Referendum and we'll see it again in any subsequent vote.
    I think that is spot on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Pulpstar said:
    Some Tory - UKIP uncertain voters out there it seems.....
    Yes interesting point:

    Tory+UKIP = 45%, 44%, 44% in those three polls
    Lab+LDem = 47%, 47% and, er, 47%

    Coincidence, no doubt.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:
    There are some seriously boring places high on that list. Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich. Good grief.
    Like all lists it's just something to argue about, but for pleasant living Zurich is very high on my list, and I know someone who liked living in Frankfurt. The same person is now in Vienna and loves it to bits, though.
    It was an interesting list, but I thought it made some very strange assumptions. Hamburg is Germany's second city? Really? Won't Frankfurt and Bonn both have views on that? And who actually thinks Lyon is more significant than Marseilles, or a close rival to Paris?
    I'm not sure either Istanbul or Naples are great to live in, but they are my favourite big European cities.
    FWIW I think they claim to be measuring liveability, but the commentaries are very touristy - it's great to have some nice buildings, but if you live there, how often do you look at them? Do Londoners regularly visit Westminster Abbey, say?
    Yes, if you're judging by quality of administration, Naples won't rank highly. If you're judging by excellent food and consumer goods, fascinating buildings and art, beautiful location and views, it would do.
    Prague, Warsaw, Vienna and Ljubljana would be my choices. Budapest isn't bad either. Lyon is ok. I wouldn't touch Paris, Brussels, Frankfurt or Marseilles.

    There seems a remarkable consensus that Germanic cities are boring. But Munich at a stretch.

    Whilst I love visiting Switzerland I'm not sure I could live there. You could kill yourself on a Sunday in Geneva.
    Vienna is vastly overrated. Vienna 1, the city centre, is beautiful and lots of fun, but very limited. The food scene is small and the fag smoke in the bars kills the nightlife.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    The Tories could offer the Lib Dems a Remain/Deal referendum on condition the LDs go into coalition with them for the next 3 years?
    Fine, the !ib dem requirements for coalition are PR for Westminster Lords Reform, an overhaul of Unviersal Credit and a softening of immigration family member rules such as income thresholds. Let's do this.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
    No I wanted the executive to take back control from brussels
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Starmer going for it.

    What’s he gone for?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    Read it in conjunction with the assurances given by Hammond and others to business leaders, that no deal would be taken off the table.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/16/hammond-phone-call-full-transcript-conversation-11-business/

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Thought experiment:

    What would Thatcher do?
    What would Churchill do?

    Advocate being in the EU, as they did in their lifetime.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    Yes it does work, better than we'd all hope, I'm sure, but I'm none the wiser how people are going to be able to judge the impacts of no deal in an objective manner even if they want to.

    I fully agree we can't do an objective analysis because we are in unknown territory. However, to head straight to the worst possible scenario seems to me to be a defined political ploy.

    Many people do this in life, mentally game all the possible scenarios and then try to game the less possible scenarios on the basis of "what's the worst that could happen?". Take that to its logical conclusion and you'd never do anything.

    It comes down to risk management - in many situations simple measures can mitigate risk (it might rain so to stop getting wet I'll carry an umbrella or wear a hat. I'll have to deal with a wet umbrella or hat but I least the rest of me won't be wet) even if it can't eliminate it completely. Ensuring the country's food and power supplies are preserved and ensuring we have the medicines we need ought not to be too difficult and indeed an integral part of any risk analysis of the consequences of leaving without a Deal.

    I can't imagine any halfway competent Government hasn't prepared so I'm left to conclude the apparent signs of ill-preparedness are a political ploy meant to scare people into backing May and her Deal.

    I think you are wrong. We are in uncharted territory.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    Yes it does work, better than we'd all hope, I'm sure, but I'm none the wiser how people are going to be able to judge the impacts of no deal in an objective manner even if they want to.

    I fully agree we can't do an objective analysis because we are in unknown territory. However, to head straight to the worst possible scenario seems to me to be a defined political ploy.

    Many people do this in life, mentally game all the possible scenarios and then try to game the less possible scenarios on the basis of "what's the worst that could happen?". Take that to its logical conclusion and you'd never do anything.

    It comes down to risk management - in many situations simple measures can mitigate risk (it might rain so to stop getting wet I'll carry an umbrella or wear a hat. I'll have to deal with a wet umbrella or hat but I least the rest of me won't be wet) even if it can't eliminate it completely. Ensuring the country's food and power supplies are preserved and ensuring we have the medicines we need ought not to be too difficult and indeed an integral part of any risk analysis of the consequences of leaving without a Deal.

    I can't imagine any halfway competent Government hasn't prepared so I'm left to conclude the apparent signs of ill-preparedness are a political ploy meant to scare people into backing May and her Deal.

    What touching faith you have in the competence of our powers that be.

    My source say they met last week "to plan a planning meeting". Seriously, that was a direct quote!

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    viewcode said:

    Roger said:
    No Edinburgh? I find that bizarre.

    And how is Madrid in any sense livable for 3 months of the summer with 40deg highs?

    Rekjyavik must be none too great for 3 months of the winter come to that.
    No York. No Harrogate. No Winchester. No Bath. Yes Manchester. So obvs bollocks.
    Almost noone British has heard of - still less visited - Plovdiv in Bulgaria, but it's superb.

    You can visit there today, now, and be one of handful of British tourists in the whole city and fully experience it as a local would, with yourself being something of a curiosity.
    Bizarrely, I'm going to see Tom Jones in Plovdiv later this year.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    tpfkar said:

    The Tories could offer the Lib Dems a Remain/Deal referendum on condition the LDs go into coalition with them for the next 3 years?
    Fine, the !ib dem requirements for coalition are PR for Westminster Lords Reform, an overhaul of Unviersal Credit and a softening of immigration family member rules such as income thresholds. Let's do this.
    You've forgotten the Conservatives voluntarily standing down in 300 of their seats and supporting the Liberal Democrat candidate. Add that and it's a basis for negotiation.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Barnesian said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    Most people will lack the time or knowledge to completely assess the full extent of any impact. You don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as both government and opposition say it will be, fine, we can all hope you are correct, but for that vast majority who do not understand these things how does one make a judgement on it when so many say it will be a disaster? Just blindly believing the worst stories is, I am sure, unwise, but blindly following others who insist it will be fine seems equally unwise.

    We touched on this before and as I had other things to do I couldn't properly respond to you.

    This is about fear as a political weapon and tool. If you make people scared enough they will agree to anything and follow anyone. Supporters of the WA basically only have Fear left now - it didn't work on the MPs so they are hoping it will work on the population who will force the MPs to reconsider and ultimately accept the Deal.

    Oddly enough, the same game is played with Corbyn as it was with Blair before him - make people (especially the elderly) believe a change in Government will mean their grandchildren will be sold into indentured servitude and they'll support the current Government whatever their reservations.

    Unfortunately, fear works and going negative is the political manifestation. We saw this in the 2016 Referendum and we'll see it again in any subsequent vote.
    I think that is spot on.
    It did not prove particularly effective against Corbyn in 2017 even in the context of the two appalling atrocities prior to Polling Day - and it failed lamentably against Blair in 1997.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
    No I wanted the executive to take back control from brussels
    Indeed, Parliament is a troublesome nuisance really isn't it?

    Much better if we could just have an untrammelled executive allowed to do as it pleased. Like they do in China, maybe?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    stodge said:

    tpfkar said:

    The Tories could offer the Lib Dems a Remain/Deal referendum on condition the LDs go into coalition with them for the next 3 years?
    Fine, the !ib dem requirements for coalition are PR for Westminster Lords Reform, an overhaul of Unviersal Credit and a softening of immigration family member rules such as income thresholds. Let's do this.
    You've forgotten the Conservatives voluntarily standing down in 300 of their seats and supporting the Liberal Democrat candidate. Add that and it's a basis for negotiation.
    And NO discussion of the EU......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    Yes it does work, better than we'd all hope, I'm sure, but I'm none the wiser how people are going to be able to judge the impacts of no deal in an objective manner even if they want to.

    I fully agree we can't do an objective analysis because we are in unknown territory. However, to head straight to the worst possible scenario seems to me to be a defined political ploy.

    Many people do this in life, mentally game all the possible scenarios and then try to game the less possible scenarios on the basis of "what's the worst that could happen?". Take that to its logical conclusion and you'd never do anything.

    It comes down to risk management - in many situations simple measures can mitigate risk (it might rain so to stop getting wet I'll carry an umbrella or wear a hat. I'll have to deal with a wet umbrella or hat but I least the rest of me won't be wet) even if it can't eliminate it completely. Ensuring the country's food and power supplies are preserved and ensuring we have the medicines we need ought not to be too difficult and indeed an integral part of any risk analysis of the consequences of leaving without a Deal.

    I can't imagine any halfway competent Government hasn't prepared so I'm left to conclude the apparent signs of ill-preparedness are a political ploy meant to scare people into backing May and her Deal.

    What touching faith you have in the competence of our powers that be.

    My source say they met last week "to plan a planning meeting". Seriously, that was a direct quote!

    About half my job seems to revolve around trying to get enough powerful people in a room so that they can plan a planning meeting for something, so that the underlings can make a start. I can well believe that sort of thing.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Ooh, Argh, me hearties, there be a new thread over thar........>
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Alistair said:

    IIRC

    Roger said:
    No Edinburgh? I find that bizarre.

    And how is Madrid in any sense livable for 3 months of the summer with 40deg highs?

    Rekjyavik must be none too great for 3 months of the winter come to that.
    Edinburgh property prices are a bit totally bonkers to be honest.
    They were when we brought our first flat in 1964 in Comely Bank.

    Edinburgh is a fabulous city and we enjoyed our time living there in the 1960's
    It is but it's grim in Winter.
    Not at all. Buzzing in winter. Lots of great cosy pubs and the nightlife kicks. Glasgow is even better I hear.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
    No I wanted the executive to take back control from brussels
    Indeed, Parliament is a troublesome nuisance really isn't it?

    Much better if we could just have an untrammelled executive allowed to do as it pleased. Like they do in China, maybe?
    The executive is chosen by the people
  • Can we deport this foreign born criminal?

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1086736325351534593
  • NEW THREAD

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
    No I wanted the executive to take back control from brussels
    Indeed, Parliament is a troublesome nuisance really isn't it?

    Much better if we could just have an untrammelled executive allowed to do as it pleased. Like they do in China, maybe?
    The executive is chosen by the people
    It's not actually, it's chosen by parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    Thought experiment:

    What would Thatcher do?
    What would Churchill do?

    Probably something different to what their modern day fanboys think.
    That could be seen as to be directed at me. I suggest you correct any such misapprehensions immediately, otherwise you'll be needing to practice your marksmanship, swordsmanship, or just plain luck quite urgently.

    I realise that it was probably inadvertent and that you hadn't seen your life ending in quite so swift and unimportant sort of way, but I can only suggest that should you survive you're more careful in the future.
    Eh? Merely making the point that 'what would x do' questions are inherently silly. It doesn't matter who the x is.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    The Tories have a 14% lead in Welsh sub sample in the same Number Cruncher Poll.

    Con 43%

    Lab 29%


    Is the Ban Hammer only invoked for citing Scottish subsamples? Are Welsh fair game?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    NEW THREAD

    You do that everytime!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Thought experiment:

    What would Thatcher do?
    What would Churchill do?

    (i) Invade the Falkland Islands
    (ii) Invade Iceland
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
    No I wanted the executive to take back control from brussels
    Indeed, Parliament is a troublesome nuisance really isn't it?

    Much better if we could just have an untrammelled executive allowed to do as it pleased. Like they do in China, maybe?
    The executive is chosen by the people
    It's not actually, it's chosen by parliament.
    Technically true but people elect a government to govern , that’s why we have an executive and not government by parliament alone
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unless he’s loving it, it looks set to go on, so he’ll exploit every shred of vindictive against him as his excuse for staying put
    The threats of revenge against him are pretty pointless, no matter if believed justified or not. He's going nowhere in the short term, another government will get in at some point and give him a peerage if he's denied one while Tories are in office, and he's only going to be even more vindictive.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    Great, another three years of Bercow.


    Let’s all rejoice at that news!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread, folks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Anazina said:

    viewcode said:

    Roger said:
    No Edinburgh? I find that bizarre.

    And how is Madrid in any sense livable for 3 months of the summer with 40deg highs?

    Rekjyavik must be none too great for 3 months of the winter come to that.
    No York. No Harrogate. No Winchester. No Bath. Yes Manchester. So obvs bollocks.
    Manchester is a great city.
    Honestly? No. I know in theory it should be good, but every time I get off the train there my spidey-sense goes off. It's not just the drug-addled tramps, it's something else.

    My feelings for areas are sometimes just that: feelings, not based on logic. Liverpool never fails to put a big grin on my face. I fell in love with York on sight. But Manchester just...no. Just no.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    First?

    Oh I’m a silly goose. But I have only just got in and read David’s interesting header. So

    O/T

    Having conceded the principle of the issue for the transition period, it’s a small step to make the arrangement permanent.

    I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that bit. I small chip of the CU iceberg was in the agreement, sensed government would rather it was not there as it make the WA harder to float, they spent most of a month assuring us it was inconsequential would melt away to nothing and not ever get in the way... and then it sunk them by ginormous 230. Seems a big step from there to taking on the whole iceberg on permanent basis?

    The main bit I would like to clarify when you say Customs Union, do you mean The EU CU or as Labour say A CU with EU?

    I’ll give you my take. When Labour say A instead of The they are talking gibberish. There’s only one on the table, why would the EU create a second just for us? Have Labour ever spelt out the important difference between the two?

    So David I take it you mean The CU?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    edited January 2019
    Deleted
  • viewcode said:

    Anazina said:

    viewcode said:

    Roger said:
    No Edinburgh? I find that bizarre.

    And how is Madrid in any sense livable for 3 months of the summer with 40deg highs?

    Rekjyavik must be none too great for 3 months of the winter come to that.
    No York. No Harrogate. No Winchester. No Bath. Yes Manchester. So obvs bollocks.
    Manchester is a great city.
    Honestly? No. I know in theory it should be good, but every time I get off the train there my spidey-sense goes off. It's not just the drug-addled tramps, it's something else.

    My feelings for areas are sometimes just that: feelings, not based on logic. Liverpool never fails to put a big grin on my face. I fell in love with York on sight. But Manchester just...no. Just no.
    Manchester is shit, I agree
  • kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/19/grieves-minority-coup-detat/
    What do we make of this ? Could he really get this through , how will government prevent this?

    You wanted a Sovereign Parliament and power wrested from the almighty executive?
    No I wanted the executive to take back control from brussels
    Indeed, Parliament is a troublesome nuisance really isn't it?

    Much better if we could just have an untrammelled executive allowed to do as it pleased. Like they do in China, maybe?
    The executive is chosen by the people
    It's not actually, it's chosen by parliament.
    Imagine being so thick as to not know that!

    Ben needs a PB site for beginners
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,678
    Was there a YG PUBLISHED LAST THURSDAY??


    BBC News Press Team

    Verified account

    @BBCNewsPR
    Follow Follow @BBCNewsPR
    More
    We've reviewed what was said re polling on @bbcquestiontime. A YouGov poll published on the day of the programme suggested a lead for the Conservatives. Diane Abbott was also right that some other polls suggested Labour either as ahead or tied, & we should have made that clear.
This discussion has been closed.