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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The choice between heating and eating: Marf gives her take

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  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''As for the price increases, yes of course they rise pretty much together''

    Agreed, but we;ve heard what is NOT causing the sharp increases in energy prices. Its not green taxes - stripping them all out doesn;t take that much off bills. And its not greedy energy companies, their margins are not spectacular.

    So what is it??

    Surely it must be supply and demand. Reducing supply (ie turning away from coal) whilst demand remains constant = higher prices. That's economics 101 isn;t it?
  • NextNext Posts: 826

    MaxPB said:

    Investment down, profits up, 6 majors all putting prices up at the same time

    I'm sorry, that just won't do.

    Take Centrica [British Gas], figures for each of the past four years (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012) - this of course includes the non-UK business:

    Turnover: £21.9bn, £22.4bn, £22.8bn, £23.9bn
    Profit before tax: £1.0bn, £2.8bn, £1.3bn, £2.4bn
    Tax (mainly UK corporation tax): £0.3bn, £0.9bn, £0.8bn, £1.2bn
    Profit after tax: £0.8bn, £1.9bn, £0.4bn, £1.2bn

    Capital expenditure (excluding acquisitions): £0.6bn, £0.5bn, £0.8bn, £1.8bn

    I don't recall Ed Miliband, or anyone else, saying shareholders should be compensated for the reduction in profits in 2011, nor is the increase in 2012 anything out of the ordinary. There's no windfall, and the profits are not excessive at all compared with sales or capital employed. What's more, they've been trying to invest more in the UK - in shale gas, for example. They also wanted to invest in gas storage but couldn't justify the investment partly because of regulatory uncertainty.

    It's a good, solid, unexciting utility business, making regular but not excessive profits in a highly regulated market and operating internationally, paying a dividend which is well in line with international peers, employing a lot of people in the UK, and paying a lot of tax in the UK.

    http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=CNA:LN&dataset=cashFlow&period=A&currency=native

    As for the price increases, yes of course they rise pretty much together - they're all subject to much the same wholesale prices and taxes, and in a competitive market prices tend to converge for commodity products.

    The government gets lots in tax from the utility companies:

    * VAT (reduced rate)

    * Corporation tax on profits

    * PAYE Income tax for employees

    * Employees National Insurance

    * Employers National Insurance

    * Tax on shareholder dividends (for higher-rate tax payers)


  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    'Surely it must be supply and demand. Reducing supply (ie turning away from coal) whilst demand remains constant = higher prices. That's economics 101 isn;t it?'

    Or is demand rising? An increasing population must be using more power.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,829

    'Surely it must be supply and demand. Reducing supply (ie turning away from coal) whilst demand remains constant = higher prices. That's economics 101 isn;t it?'

    Or is demand rising? An increasing population must be using more power.

    Electricity demand is generally flat-to-down. This is partly because high prices discourage marginal users, but is more because appliances and lighting are becoming increasingly efficient. There's another leg to this story as we switch out old, ineffecient air conditioning systems and replace them with new ones.

    The major reason that energy prices are rising is that the marginal cost of production is set by natural gas. (Economics 101: the marginal supplier, i.e. an efficient CCGT, sets the wholesale price.) In the UK, we have domestic natural gas production declining as North Sea fields become depleted, and we also see declining volumes from Norway where we had negotiated long-term fixed price contracts. Essentially, the amount of $8/mmcf gas we consume is falling, and is being replaced by LNG imports, which are typically around $15/mmcf.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013
    rcs1000 said:
    What a plum. Wild, crazy eyed, gibbering and vain. Talks about the Underclass and wealth redistribution, whilst whooping it up in expensive hotels. Next.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The major reason that energy prices are rising is that the marginal cost of production is set by natural gas.''

    If that's the case RCS, then there's little that anybody can do about rising gas and leccy prices, despite all the hullabaloo.

    Why doesn't everybody just admit it?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    taffys said:

    ''As for the price increases, yes of course they rise pretty much together''

    Agreed, but we;ve heard what is NOT causing the sharp increases in energy prices. Its not green taxes - stripping them all out doesn;t take that much off bills. And its not greedy energy companies, their margins are not spectacular.

    So what is it??

    Surely it must be supply and demand. Reducing supply (ie turning away from coal) whilst demand remains constant = higher prices. That's economics 101 isn;t it?

    My understanding was that we used more Coal in 2012 than in 2011, and we still seem to be using lots of it this year, so that idea appears to be contradicted by the facts.

    I've just checked the DECC stats and my memory is right, there was a massive change from gas to coal last year - in the media it was said this was because the US was exporting cheap coal it wasn't burning since gas was now so cheap there.

    The main switch away from coal in the UK was during the 90s, when North Sea gas was so cheap.
  • Am I the only one who thinks this cartoon is in really bad taste. There are people who have to decide if they can eat or heat the house and it is no laughing matter. Some topics are too sensitive and should be the subject of sympathy not worthless attempts at humour.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    edited October 2013
    @RCS1000

    "I assume everyone has seen this;"

    It is too easy to patronize. Though to some he cut a pretty ridiculous figure while we are governed by the sons of multi millionaires pontificating about people getting off their backsides to work for the minimum wage you don't need a massive imagination to see where he's coming from.

    There is something rotten at the core of our society and that's all he was trying to say. He's noticed it and while this government is in power behaving in the arrogant unsympathetic way they are there will be many others who are noticing it too.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    "I assume everyone has seen this;"

    So that's the famous Paxman beard.(no TV here) It suits him. He seems calm and sane. But the other bearded one looks like a face peeping out of his own fundament. He works by patching together a series of verbal riffs. I don't think I'd like to see him put in charge of anything.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    Incidentally Marf '5 Jubilee Place' was my old studio just off Kings Rd.
  • Interesting piece from a progressive Conservative pov (not much crossover with the PB Tories I suspect though).

    'Are we the baddies?'

    http://tinyurl.com/n9f779u
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Am I the only one who thinks this cartoon is in really bad taste. There are people who have to decide if they can eat or heat the house and it is no laughing matter. Some topics are too sensitive and should be the subject of sympathy not worthless attempts at humour.

    Marf's cartoon stands in a long tradition of satirical cartoons, and the way in which it combines two important issues - fuel poverty and the pressure on models to be starve themselves - is very clever, as well as being funny.

    It is a joke that I can imagine some of the people who have to face the difficult decision between heating and eating would make themselves, if they make the connection.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013
    Roger said:

    @RCS1000

    "I assume everyone has seen this;"

    It is too easy to patronize. Though to some he would have cut a pretty ridiculous figure while we are governed by the sons of multi millionaires pontificating about people getting off their backsides to work for the minimum wage you don't need a massive imagination to see where he's coming from.

    There is something rotten at the core of our society and that's all he was trying to say. He's noticed it and while this government is in power behaving in the arrogant unsympathetic way they are there will be many others who are noticing it too.

    Particularly touched by his attack against 'corporations' - presumably the same ones that bankroll his film career, publish the books that made his fortune, and build the uber smart hotels he lives in?

    Isn't he close friends Jemima Goldsmith? How does that gel with his rant against the super rich?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,829

    taffys said:

    ''As for the price increases, yes of course they rise pretty much together''

    Agreed, but we;ve heard what is NOT causing the sharp increases in energy prices. Its not green taxes - stripping them all out doesn;t take that much off bills. And its not greedy energy companies, their margins are not spectacular.

    So what is it??

    Surely it must be supply and demand. Reducing supply (ie turning away from coal) whilst demand remains constant = higher prices. That's economics 101 isn;t it?

    My understanding was that we used more Coal in 2012 than in 2011, and we still seem to be using lots of it this year, so that idea appears to be contradicted by the facts.

    I've just checked the DECC stats and my memory is right, there was a massive change from gas to coal last year - in the media it was said this was because the US was exporting cheap coal it wasn't burning since gas was now so cheap there.

    The main switch away from coal in the UK was during the 90s, when North Sea gas was so cheap.
    OK. It doesn't matter whether we use 80% coal, and 20% gas, or 100% gas - the price will be set by the marginal plant, which will almost always be gas.

    So, last year the price of coal fell, and therefore if you owned a big coal fired power station you "had it off". Nevertheless, we do not have enough coal fired power stations to meet all of our demand, so coal could not set the price. (The difference, IIRC, between coal and gas generation costs is known as the dark spread.)

    A few years ago, coal was expensive, and gas cheap. At that time, natural gas plants basically ran all the time, and coal was the marginal supply and therefore set the price.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013
    "billionaire plutocrat who’s squeezing the life out of a vital piece of UK infrastructure."

    The same one who bought up failing sites, and made them work as businesses keeping 15,000 people in work? There are many ways of looking at this story.
  • Roger said:

    Incidentally Marf '5 Jubilee Place' was my old studio just off Kings Rd.

    You worked there as a 'French Model', Roger?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    @OSM.

    Very good reply to Roseree64. I was trying to frame one but yours is much better
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    edited October 2013
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''As for the price increases, yes of course they rise pretty much together''

    Agreed, but we;ve heard what is NOT causing the sharp increases in energy prices. Its not green taxes - stripping them all out doesn;t take that much off bills. And its not greedy energy companies, their margins are not spectacular.

    So what is it??

    Surely it must be supply and demand. Reducing supply (ie turning away from coal) whilst demand remains constant = higher prices. That's economics 101 isn;t it?

    My understanding was that we used more Coal in 2012 than in 2011, and we still seem to be using lots of it this year, so that idea appears to be contradicted by the facts.

    I've just checked the DECC stats and my memory is right, there was a massive change from gas to coal last year - in the media it was said this was because the US was exporting cheap coal it wasn't burning since gas was now so cheap there.

    The main switch away from coal in the UK was during the 90s, when North Sea gas was so cheap.
    OK. It doesn't matter whether we use 80% coal, and 20% gas, or 100% gas - the price will be set by the marginal plant, which will almost always be gas.

    So, last year the price of coal fell, and therefore if you owned a big coal fired power station you "had it off". Nevertheless, we do not have enough coal fired power stations to meet all of our demand, so coal could not set the price. (The difference, IIRC, between coal and gas generation costs is known as the dark spread.)

    A few years ago, coal was expensive, and gas cheap. At that time, natural gas plants basically ran all the time, and coal was the marginal supply and therefore set the price.
    But with coal, all else being equal one rips through the north sea gas more slowly than otherwise thus the marginal cost will rise more slowly than it otherwise would have...

    And your (Correct) logic acknowledges that if we had alot of coal still on tap they would quite rightly be a very profitable element of the mix.

    Edit:

    1) So, last year the price of coal fell, and therefore if you owned a big coal fired power station you "had it off".

    2) A few years ago, coal was expensive, and gas cheap. At that time, natural gas plants basically ran all the time

    Those statements look contradictory to me ... 2) seems correct
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    This amused me, a Beeboid off message. What is the difference between an illicit tapping of a phone and ... you know that word with an H.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24658177
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Interesting piece from a progressive Conservative pov (not much crossover with the PB Tories I suspect though).

    'Are we the baddies?'

    http://tinyurl.com/n9f779u

    That is a very interesting piece. I tend to think that's the sort of Conservatism that could win votes in the centre and tempt back votes lost to UKIP.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ed's best mate Hollande's year is not going at all well:

    "French jobless claims surge in September to record high"

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/uk-france-economy-idUKBRE99N0V120131024

    "Ed Miliband plans a new Europe with François Hollande
    Ed Miliband has agreed to work with the new Socialist President of France to “tilt” Europe away from austerity.

    The Labour leader told The Daily Telegraph that the election of François Hollande represented “a significant moment” in which the balance of power shifted away from harsh spending cuts towards the policies of the Left.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9259475/Ed-Miliband-plans-a-new-Europe-with-Francois-Hollande.html
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    edited October 2013

    Interesting piece from a progressive Conservative pov (not much crossover with the PB Tories I suspect though).

    'Are we the baddies?'

    http://tinyurl.com/n9f779u

    That is a very interesting piece. I tend to think that's the sort of Conservatism that could win votes in the centre and tempt back votes lost to UKIP.
    The problem is that sometimes the best decisions for the long-term health of the country, and thereby the benefit of everyone, can appear harsh in the short-term.

    Whereas Miliband's "prizes prices for all" approach is populist, but can ultimately be harmful.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @MaxPB

    A windfall tax to fund a fuel duty freeze is the logical political and economic answer as it stops inflation rising and helps people with the cost of living.

    Few would claim that motor fuel prices are too low but they are less of a pressing problem currently than household energy prices. Much of the reason for this is that the recent strength of the pound and relative stability in the Middle East has seen oil prices ease or at least remain stable.

    The AA produce a monthly report on fuel prices which stated that unleaded fuel rose by only 0.1 pence per litre in the UK on average in September and that the current short term prospect for pricing is downward.

    The AA also produce a table of prices in Europe (and the US) which shows that we rank 8th in the highest prices charged for unleaded fuel.

    For lovers of yellow charts, I shall post the rankings in a follow up comment.


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    @MaxPB

    AA Fuel Price Rankings
    ==================================================
    AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION: SEPTEMBER 2013
    UK pence per litre
    Rank Country Unleaded Diesel
    --------------------------------------------------
    1 Norway 1.5713 1.4614
    2 Netherlands 1.5237 1.2536
    3 Italy 1.4925 1.4118
    4 Greece 1.4471 1.2199
    5 Finland 1.3890 1.2654
    6 Sweden 1.3832 1.3784
    --------------------------------------------------
    7 United Kingdom 1.3760 1.4250
    --------------------------------------------------
    8 Belgium 1.3512 1.2443
    9 Ireland 1.3470 1.2620
    10 Portugal 1.3436 1.1686
    11 Denmark 1.3301 1.2128
    12 Germany 1.2923 1.1955
    13 Slovakia 1.2780 1.1880
    14 France 1.2746 1.2014
    15 Malta 1.2536 1.1610
    16 Slovenia 1.2511 1.1930
    17 Switzerland 1.2164 1.2851
    18 Czech Republic 1.1979 1.1838
    19 Cyprus 1.1905 1.1989
    20 Spain 1.1846 1.1484
    21 Austria 1.1762 1.1602
    22 Lithuania 1.1527 1.0966
    23 Hungary 1.1423 1.1986
    24 Latvia 1.1396 1.0918
    25 Bulgaria 1.1228 1.1443
    26 Poland 1.1207 1.1207
    27 Luxembourg 1.1198 1.0281
    28 Estonia 1.0761 1.0971
    29 Romania 1.0717 1.1372
    30 United States 0.5822 0.6524
    ================================================
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    @averyLP isn't 60% of the diesel or petrol price a vile mix of VAT and Excise Duty?
  • AveryLP said:

    @MaxPB

    AA Fuel Price Rankings

    ==================================================
    AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION: SEPTEMBER 2013
    UK pence per litre
    Rank Country Unleaded Diesel
    --------------------------------------------------
    1 Norway 117.62 116.02
    2 Netherlands 135.12 124.43
    3 Italy 119.79 118.38
    4 Greece 133.01 121.28
    5 Finland 138.90 126.54
    6 Sweden 127.46 120.14
    7 Germany 129.23 119.55
    --------------------------------------------------
    8 United Kingdom 137.60 142.50
    --------------------------------------------------
    9 Belgium 144.71 121.99
    10 Ireland 152.37 125.36
    11 Portugal 114.23 119.86
    12 Denmark 134.70 126.20
    13 Germany 149.25 141.18
    14 Slovakia 111.98 102.81
    15 France 107.61 109.71
    16 Malta 157.13 146.14
    17 Slovenia 113.96 109.18
    18 Switzerland 115.27 109.66
    19 Czech Republic 112.07 112.07
    20 Cyprus 127.80 118.80
    21 Spain 125.11 119.30
    22 Austria 134.36 116.86
    23 Lithuania 118.46 114.84
    24 Hungary 138.32 137.84
    25 Latvia 121.64 128.51
    26 Bulgaria 58.22 65.24
    27 Poland 125.36 116.10
    28 Luxembourg 112.28 114.43
    29 Estonia 119.05 119.89
    30 Romania 107.17 113.72
    ==================================================
    Germany is both 7th and 13th? Have they de-united into East/West while I haven't been paying attention?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @ tim - how about Ed's 'a significant moment” in which the balance of power shifted away from harsh spending cuts towards the policies of the Left.'

    How's that going?

    Frau Merkel still Chancellor?
  • R0bertsR0berts Posts: 391

    Interesting piece from a progressive Conservative pov (not much crossover with the PB Tories I suspect though).

    'Are we the baddies?'

    http://tinyurl.com/n9f779u

    Cue many - particularly on the Right - rushing to Twitter and the blogosphere to condemn the ‘irresponsible’ union wreckers who had put thousands of jobs at risk.

    Far easier to bash the unions than to ask tough questions of the billionaire plutocrat who’s squeezing the life out of a vital piece of UK infrastructure.

    Far more fun to bang on, yet again, about Falkirk than to say – as patriotic Brits – that this country will not be blackmailed by oligarchs.


    Lol, has he been reading PBTories?

    As I said the other day, there's just no need for the modern Tories to continually side with the wrong people - most notably Big Business against ordinary folk - in order to be true to their values.

    There's no need for them to be the Nasty Party but that, bafflingly, is what they've chosen to become. And it has, and will continue to, cost them election after election.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    @MaxPB

    AA Fuel Price Rankings

    ==================================================
    AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION: SEPTEMBER 2013
    UK pence per litre
    Rank Country Unleaded Diesel
    --------------------------------------------------
    1 Norway 117.62 116.02
    2 Netherlands 135.12 124.43
    3 Italy 119.79 118.38
    4 Greece 133.01 121.28
    5 Finland 138.90 126.54
    6 Sweden 127.46 120.14
    7 Germany 129.23 119.55
    --------------------------------------------------
    8 United Kingdom 137.60 142.50
    --------------------------------------------------
    9 Belgium 144.71 121.99
    10 Ireland 152.37 125.36
    11 Portugal 114.23 119.86
    12 Denmark 134.70 126.20
    13 Germany 149.25 141.18
    14 Slovakia 111.98 102.81
    15 France 107.61 109.71
    16 Malta 157.13 146.14
    17 Slovenia 113.96 109.18
    18 Switzerland 115.27 109.66
    19 Czech Republic 112.07 112.07
    20 Cyprus 127.80 118.80
    21 Spain 125.11 119.30
    22 Austria 134.36 116.86
    23 Lithuania 118.46 114.84
    24 Hungary 138.32 137.84
    25 Latvia 121.64 128.51
    26 Bulgaria 58.22 65.24
    27 Poland 125.36 116.10
    28 Luxembourg 112.28 114.43
    29 Estonia 119.05 119.89
    30 Romania 107.17 113.72
    ==================================================
    Germany is both 7th and 13th? Have they de-united into East/West while I haven't been paying attention?
    Now corrected! UK at 7th not 8th!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,671
    Pulpstar said:

    I see Spanish Power has put their rates up...

    Surprised if labour don't say it is the SNP to blame
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Next said:

    Interesting piece from a progressive Conservative pov (not much crossover with the PB Tories I suspect though).

    'Are we the baddies?'

    http://tinyurl.com/n9f779u

    That is a very interesting piece. I tend to think that's the sort of Conservatism that could win votes in the centre and tempt back votes lost to UKIP.
    The problem is that sometimes the best decisions for the long-term health of the country, and thereby the benefit of everyone, can appear harsh in the short-term.

    Whereas Miliband's "prizes prices for all" approach is populist, but can ultimately be harmful.
    Yes, I was thinking of adding something along those lines, but couldn't work out how to do so. Globalisation obviously presents an enormous challenge, but Conservatives need to think of a better response than to criticise every attempt by a Union to protect pay and conditions.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    "Cameron 'not interested in education'"

    I always had a soft spot for Kenneth Baker and he's got Gove spot on. It seems all Thatcher's ex cabinet are now falling in line behind Russel Brand
This discussion has been closed.