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PeterMannion

First, like Corbyn's amendment?

RobD

Second!

TheScreamingEagles

The DUP wrong then, wrong now.

Within a decade the DUP will be pro Rejoin the EU based on the past performance of the DUP, bunch bigoted hypocrites.

Danny565

david_herdson said:

TOPPING said:

grabcocque said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.

With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.

How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?

10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.

The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.

Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.

NPXMP called it a long time ago as up to six would vote for the deal. I see no reason to think that is underestimating the number.

For now, yes.

Question is: what do they do once all the other options have left the table and only Deal and No Deal remain?

Why do you think the "Extending Article 50" option will leave the table?

Nigelb

PeterMannion said:

First, like Corbyn's amendment?

No - Corbyn's amendment will likely disappear, as did my First on the whim of Vanilla.

grabcocque

For the DUP, every other possible outcome is better for them than May's deal, including remain and no deal.

It takes special talent for May to have engineered this outcome for the party she's relying on for a majority.

TheWhiteRabbit

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

Nigelb

grabcocque said:

For the DUP, every other possible outcome is better for them than May's deal, even no deal.

Not every outcome. A general election which deprived them of their current influence, for example.

RobD

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Foxy

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085147984726233093?s=19

AlastairMeeks

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:

For the DUP, every other possible outcome is better for them than May's deal, even no deal.

Not every outcome. A general election which deprived them of their current influence, for example.

No, that would be better than exiting on the current deal. The deal cuts across the DUP's raison d'etre.

Their original support of Brexit was a massive avoidable blunder, and one that might well have altered the course of the referendum, given that they were a conduit for funds for the Leave campaign in Britain too.

grabcocque

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

No, but they do still get an expense allowance, and hire offices and staff. They're eligible for offices in Portcullis House, but they decline them. Though they regularly attend meetings there.

TOPPING

fpt

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Wish a GNU would happen, but while Corbyn is Labour/Momentum leader it will not happen, unless a coalition of the willing can be found from enough MPs on both sides that are willing to risk deselection. Ken Clark has the balls, but who else? I don't think there is the arithmetic that would make it work.

I agree. GNU for No Brexit is for the birds. JC blocks it.

For me, given the genuine terrors, genuinely held, about No Deal, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Treaty is ratified at some point before 29th March.

Hence a big betting opportunity this evening if, in the immediate aftermath of a massive defeat in the MV, the odds of that lurch out to something silly.

I have backed just that at prices around 6s to 9s and I will look this evening to see how the market has moved.

TGOHF

All a bit moot now this debate - just get on with the vote.

Foxy

I see 326 politics have 209 Ayes.

https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1085167475413712898?s=19

TOPPING

on topic

"A huge problem is that this was all a long time ago and many current politicians have no real knowledge understanding of its significance."

You can say that again. With knobs on. Plus any number of PB posters.

Anazina

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

Sunil_Prasannan

Foxy said:

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085147984726233093?s=19

Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!

Anazina

TOPPING said:

fpt

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Wish a GNU would happen, but while Corbyn is Labour/Momentum leader it will not happen, unless a coalition of the willing can be found from enough MPs on both sides that are willing to risk deselection. Ken Clark has the balls, but who else? I don't think there is the arithmetic that would make it work.

I agree. GNU for No Brexit is for the birds. JC blocks it.

For me, given the genuine terrors, genuinely held, about No Deal, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Treaty is ratified at some point before 29th March.

Hence a big betting opportunity this evening if, in the immediate aftermath of a massive defeat in the MV, the odds of that lurch out to something silly.

I have backed just that at prices around 6s to 9s and I will look this evening to see how the market has moved.

It's a great betting tip. As Kinabalu says, some daft prices might be available by last orders this evening.

Sunil_Prasannan

Northern Ireland has 18 (EIGHTEEN) constituencies.

david_herdson

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:

For the DUP, every other possible outcome is better for them than May's deal, even no deal.

Not every outcome. A general election which deprived them of their current influence, for example.

They would see that as a very suboptimal outcome but it would only be a temporary one; establishing a regulatory border between NI and GB (while simultaneously keeping no border between NI and RoI), would be even worse as that precedent could not be undone.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, my fellow Cavaliers and Roundheads.

Dr. Foxy, 209 would be ideal for me from a betting perspective. Anything under 250 would suffice.

TGOHF

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

Best tell Wikipedia..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland

Northern Ireland (Irish: Tuaisceart Éireann [ˈt̪ˠuəʃcəɾˠt̪ˠ ˈeːɾʲən̪ˠ] (About this soundlisten);[7] Ulster-Scots: Norlin Airlann) is a part of the United Kingdom in the north-east of the island of Ireland,[8][9] variously described as a country, province or region.

Philip_Thompson

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:

For the DUP, every other possible outcome is better for them than May's deal, even no deal.

Not every outcome. A general election which deprived them of their current influence, for example.

Is still in the long term better than this deal. They're not prepared to sacrifice their future for transient "influence" that hasn't even enabled them to prevent this.

Nemtynakht

On topic - whilst factual havent we had government in U.K. elected on less than the 36%? I agree with general thrust of the article but seems an odd point to make.

I guess the other argument is what percentage of voters voted for Parties wanting to undermine the union. I.e. SNP, PC and SF. Don't their views get overly represented

Anazina

TGOHF said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

Best tell Wikipedia..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland

Northern Ireland (Irish: Tuaisceart Éireann [ˈt̪ˠuəʃcəɾˠt̪ˠ ˈeːɾʲən̪ˠ] (About this soundlisten);[7] Ulster-Scots: Norlin Airlann) is a part of the United Kingdom in the north-east of the island of Ireland,[8][9] variously described as a country, province or region.

Yes, that doesn't contradict what I wrote in any way, does it?

That some people describe it as a province is undoubtably true.

They are wrong to do so.

Sunil_Prasannan

TGOHF said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

Best tell Wikipedia..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland

Northern Ireland (Irish: Tuaisceart Éireann [ˈt̪ˠuəʃcəɾˠt̪ˠ ˈeːɾʲən̪ˠ] (About this soundlisten);[7] Ulster-Scots: Norlin Airlann) is a part of the United Kingdom in the north-east of the island of Ireland,[8][9] variously described as a country, province or region.

But Wikipedia can be edited by anyone (even anonymous IPs). The Province has nine counties.

grabcocque

TGOHF said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

Best tell Wikipedia..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland

Northern Ireland (Irish: Tuaisceart Éireann [ˈt̪ˠuəʃcəɾˠt̪ˠ ˈeːɾʲən̪ˠ] (About this soundlisten);[7] Ulster-Scots: Norlin Airlann) is a part of the United Kingdom in the north-east of the island of Ireland,[8][9] variously described as a country, province or region.

Country, Nation, Province, Region... None of these has clear and distinct definitions, so which one you use largely depends on which people you wish to irritate.

AlastairMeeks

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

RobD

Anazina said:

TGOHF said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

Best tell Wikipedia..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland

Northern Ireland (Irish: Tuaisceart Éireann [ˈt̪ˠuəʃcəɾˠt̪ˠ ˈeːɾʲən̪ˠ] (About this soundlisten);[7] Ulster-Scots: Norlin Airlann) is a part of the United Kingdom in the north-east of the island of Ireland,[8][9] variously described as a country, province or region.

Yes, that doesn't contradict what I wrote in any way, does it?

That some people describe it as a province is undoubtably true.

They are wrong to do so.

Technically speaking, what is the distinction?

AlastairMeeks

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Northern Ireland has 18 (EIGHTEEN) constituencies.

And Lady Sylvia Hermon is vigorously in favour of the deal (she has just been dishing out a tongue-lashing on the subject in Parliament).

Polruan

TGOHF said:

All a bit moot now this debate - just get on with the vote.

Many people said the same in December.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

Northern Ireland has 18 (EIGHTEEN) constituencies.

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Danny565

https://twitter.com/TheDweck/status/1085003233662124032

Sunil_Prasannan

AlastairMeeks said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Northern Ireland has 18 (EIGHTEEN) constituencies.

And Lady Sylvia Hermon is vigorously in favour of the deal (she has just been dishing out a tongue-lashing on the subject in Parliament).

Yes, so it's 10 DUP and 1 Ind Unionist in Parliament.

AlastairMeeks

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Quite. If you look at uses of the word "province" around the rest of the world, Northern Ireland falls foursquare within that, and if anything the word understates its stature.

Sunil_Prasannan

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Quite. If you look at uses of the word "province" around the rest of the world, Northern Ireland falls foursquare within that, and if anything the word understates its stature.

Canada and Pakistan call their first-order subdivisions "provinces", whereas their neighbours USA and India call them "States".

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Northern Ireland has 18 (EIGHTEEN) constituencies.

And Lady Sylvia Hermon is vigorously in favour of the deal (she has just been dishing out a tongue-lashing on the subject in Parliament).

Overall, it seems about one third of Unionists support the Deal. I would be one of them, on the basis that No Deal probably threatens the Union more than the backstop does.

Sunil_Prasannan

Danny565 said:

https://twitter.com/TheDweck/status/1085003233662124032

Donald's McDonald's?

Nemtynakht

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Northern Ireland has 18 (EIGHTEEN) constituencies.

And Lady Sylvia Hermon is vigorously in favour of the deal (she has just been dishing out a tongue-lashing on the subject in Parliament).

Overall, it seems about one third of Unionists support the Deal. I would be one of them, on the basis that No Deal probably threatens the Union more than the backstop does.

This is a balance of probabilities beyond most MPs

MarqueeMark

Foxy said:

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085147984726233093?s=19

Not worth a shiny shit. That could be Con 26% UKIP 16% within the week.....

SandyRentool

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Quite. If you look at uses of the word "province" around the rest of the world, Northern Ireland falls foursquare within that, and if anything the word understates its stature.

Canada and Pakistan call their first-order subdivisions "provinces", whereas their neighbours USA and India call them "States".

And Punjab is partly a Pakistani province and partly an Indian state.

Nigelb

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:

For the DUP, every other possible outcome is better for them than May's deal, even no deal.

Not every outcome. A general election which deprived them of their current influence, for example.

Is still in the long term better than this deal. They're not prepared to sacrifice their future for transient "influence" that hasn't even enabled them to prevent this.

No deal will sacrifice their future far more surely.

Nigel_Foremain

As we are often being told Brexit is the "will-o-the-people", has anyone really thought that in reality, subsequent to the referendum there was a GE in which one party (the Conservative Party, of which I am a member) went into that election advocating Brexit means Brexit, and an exit from the CU and the ECJ (thereby further clarifying what leaving meant) and subsequently lost its majority? Hardly a ringing endorsement of Brexit was it, and of course, that hung parliament has led to all this?

The will-o-the-people is clearly not that emphatic. I have changed my mind, we need another referendum even though I hate the things!

SandyRentool

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Richard_Nabavi

SPIN's market is zig-zagging around quite a bit - it's just leapt up to 222-230

Edit: Now 223-231

TheWhiteRabbit

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085147984726233093?s=19

Not worth a shiny shit. That could be Con 26% UKIP 16% within the week.....

Or just just likely Con 40 UKIP 2

TheScreamingEagles

In the event of No Deal Karen Bradley should call an Irish unity poll.

Would be consistent with the Good Friday Agreement.

Nigelb

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

It's not.

Sean_F

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

No it isn't.

But, claims that we could just revoke it and then retrigger it are silly.

MarqueeMark

Nigel_Foremain said:

As we are often being told Brexit is the "will-o-the-people", has anyone really thought that in reality, subsequent to the referendum there was a GE in which one party (the Conservative Party, of which I am a member) went into that election advocating Brexit means Brexit, and an exit from the CU and the ECJ (thereby further clarifying what leaving meant) and subsequently lost its majority? Hardly a ringing endorsement of Brexit was it, and of course, that hung parliament has led to all this?

The will-o-the-people is clearly not that emphatic. I have changed my mind, we need another referendum even though I hate the things!

But the Labour Party that won those seats was also advocating that Brexit means Brexit (insofar as they didn't - and haven't since - elucidated what Brexit actually means...).

RobD

Nigel_Foremain said:

As we are often being told Brexit is the "will-o-the-people", has anyone really thought that in reality, subsequent to the referendum there was a GE in which one party (the Conservative Party, of which I am a member) went into that election advocating Brexit means Brexit, and an exit from the CU and the ECJ (thereby further clarifying what leaving meant) and subsequently lost its majority? Hardly a ringing endorsement of Brexit was it, and of course, that hung parliament has led to all this?

The will-o-the-people is clearly not that emphatic. I have changed my mind, we need another referendum even though I hate the things!

Labour’s position was broadly similar though, and was definitely pro-Brexit. Combined they got a pretty hefty chunk of the electorate.

RobD

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Politically he might be right.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN's market is zig-zagging around quite a bit - it's just leapt up to 222-230

Edit: Now 223-231

Thanks for pointing that out. I sold another £3.75 an MP at 223.

Nigelb

An attack on hotel in Nairobi:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/15/nairobi-kenya-gunfire-hotel-complex-dusitd2

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN's market is zig-zagging around quite a bit - it's just leapt up to 222-230

Edit: Now 223-231

Thanks for pointing that out. I sold another £3.75 an MP at 223.

Unfortunately I'd just added too my sell at 219, so I was slightly to early.

Incidentally I think combining this with Shadsy's 1.66 on 200-249 is a good combination

MarqueeMark

Don't know if there is any political consequence to be read into this, in terms of "failing states", but these are stores M&S is proposing to close:

Ashford, Barrow, Bedford, Boston, Buxton, Cwmbran, Deal, Felixstowe, Huddersfield, Hull, Junction One Antrim Outlet, Luton Arndale, Newark, Northwich, Rotherham, Sutton Coldfield and Weston-super-Mare.

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN's market is zig-zagging around quite a bit - it's just leapt up to 222-230

Edit: Now 223-231

Thanks for pointing that out. I sold another £3.75 an MP at 223.

Unfortunately I'd just added to my sell at 219, so I was slightly to early.

Incidentally I think combining this with Shadsy's 1.66 on 200-249 is a good combination

It's your money Richard but aren't you just compounding the risk associated with a 'freak' result (>249)?

Sunil_Prasannan

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Quite. If you look at uses of the word "province" around the rest of the world, Northern Ireland falls foursquare within that, and if anything the word understates its stature.

Canada and Pakistan call their first-order subdivisions "provinces", whereas their neighbours USA and India call them "States".

And Punjab is partly a Pakistani province and partly an Indian state.

And Luxembourg is partly a Belgian province and also a Grand Duchy.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN's market is zig-zagging around quite a bit - it's just leapt up to 222-230

Edit: Now 223-231

Thanks for pointing that out. I sold another £3.75 an MP at 223.

Unfortunately I'd just added to my sell at 219, so I was slightly to early.

Incidentally I think combining this with Shadsy's 1.66 on 200-249 is a good combination

Yes, I'm on that too (I managed to get 4/5 from Ladbrokes on that band yesterday, which was nice) and as you say it helps cover a lot of eventualities.

grabcocque

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Geoffrey Cox shouted it in a big theatrical voice so it is true by definition.

kinabalu

Anazina said:

It's a great betting tip. As Kinabalu says, some daft prices might be available by last orders this evening.

Drat! Now I've got you two competing with me to grab the juiciest offer.

We should form a syndicate.

Morris_Dancer

Put a tiny sum (as usual) on the 250-299 pro-deal band on Ladbrokes. I suspect it's unnecessary, but seeing how things are, I decided to be a bit frit/safety first.

Sean_F

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

TheWhiteRabbit

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Politically he might be right.

Not how it has been minuted by the Guardian:

"UK cannot revoke article 50 just to buy further time for negotiation, attorney general says"

Richard_Nabavi

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN's market is zig-zagging around quite a bit - it's just leapt up to 222-230

Edit: Now 223-231

Thanks for pointing that out. I sold another £3.75 an MP at 223.

Unfortunately I'd just added to my sell at 219, so I was slightly to early.

Incidentally I think combining this with Shadsy's 1.66 on 200-249 is a good combination

It's your money Richard but aren't you just compounding the risk associated with a 'freak' result (>249)?

Yes, I am, but I'm also reducing my risk on a non-freak loser on the spread.

Anazina

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Quite. If you look at uses of the word "province" around the rest of the world, Northern Ireland falls foursquare within that, and if anything the word understates its stature.

Hmm. The reason it is referred to as the Province is because Ulster is a province. But, as discussed, Ulster is not synonymous with NI, so it's wrong to call it that. And, yes, it does irritate half of its population, which is a not inconsequential factor.

We might call it a statelet or a territory instead.

MarqueeMark

Sean_F said:

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

Marquee Mark was correct

There's a phrase you don't often see written!

(just muttered, grudgingly, sotto voce... )

Richard_Tyndall

The problem for Mike and others using the GFA to justify the backstop is that they have things the wrong way round.

There is nothing in the GFA at all about the border between NI and Eire. As such a hard border might break the spirit of the GFA (And I think it does) but it does not break the letter of the agreement.

The backstop on the other hand breaks the letter of the GFA. Specifically section 1 iii in so far as it changes the status of NI without the consent of its people.

Now personally I still back the deal but to imply it is in accordance with the GFA is clearly wrong.

Sunil_Prasannan

Anazina said:

AlastairMeeks said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"This means that of the 17 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs"

depends what you mean by "active" I guess

They still get paid, don’t they?

Point of order: NI is emphatically NOT a province.

Ulster is (or was) but comprises several more counties than the six annexed to the UK.

Northern Ireland is a territory, or perhaps a country, with an almost unique constitutional status in world terms in so far as its citizens can select from two alternative nationalities.

But it's certainly not a province.

That's overemphatic. There is certainly a historical province of Ulster. But the word "province" normally means "a principal administrative division of a country" or "a large section of a country which has its own administration". By that definition Northern Ireland is indeed a province, albeit not the province of Ulster.

I can understand why the term pisses off nationalists but as a matter of English it seems to me to be correct.

It seems less problematic than calling Northern Ireland one of the nations of the UK.

Quite. If you look at uses of the word "province" around the rest of the world, Northern Ireland falls foursquare within that, and if anything the word understates its stature.

Hmm. The reason it is referred to as the Province is because Ulster is a province. But, as discussed, Ulster is not synonymous with NI, so it's wrong to call it that. And, yes, it does irritate half of its population, which is a not inconsequential factor.

We might call it a statelet or a territory instead.

One Irish bloke I once worked with jokingly called it "Occupied Ireland"

MarqueeMark

grabcocque said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Geoffrey Cox shouted it in a big theatrical voice so it is true by definition.

Does he have any updates on Gordon's state of being?

Sean_F

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

Marquee Mark was correct

There's a phrase you don't often see written!

(just muttered, grudgingly, sotto voce... )

But, Hugo Swire will not.

RobD

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Politically he might be right.

Not how it has been minuted by the Guardian:

"UK cannot revoke article 50 just to buy further time for negotiation, attorney general says"

That’s true, any revocation must be unequivocal. Revoking just to invoke again will surely be contested at the ECJ.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

Marquee Mark was correct

There's a phrase you don't often see written!

(just muttered, grudgingly, sotto voce... )

But, Hugo Swire will not.

Right now I'm cheering on every rebel.

AlastairMeeks

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

Marquee Mark was correct

There's a phrase you don't often see written!

(just muttered, grudgingly, sotto voce... )

It was very helpful information, thank you.

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

The problem for Mike and others using the GFA to justify the backstop is that they have things the wrong way round.

There is nothing in the GFA at all about the border between NI and Eire. As such a hard border might break the spirit of the GFA (And I think it does) but it does not break the letter of the agreement.

The backstop on the other hand breaks the letter of the GFA. Specifically section 1 iii in so far as it changes the status of NI without the consent of its people.

Now personally I still back the deal but to imply it is in accordance with the GFA is clearly wrong.

Based on your argument, any form of Brexit opposed by the people of Northern Ireland violates the GFA.

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

Marquee Mark was correct

There's a phrase you don't often see written!

(just muttered, grudgingly, sotto voce... )

But, Hugo Swire will not.

Right now I'm cheering on every rebel.

If you're prediction of 200 - 205 is correct, how much do you stand to win?

Nigel_Foremain

MarqueeMark said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

As we are often being told Brexit is the "will-o-the-people", has anyone really thought that in reality, subsequent to the referendum there was a GE in which one party (the Conservative Party, of which I am a member) went into that election advocating Brexit means Brexit, and an exit from the CU and the ECJ (thereby further clarifying what leaving meant) and subsequently lost its majority? Hardly a ringing endorsement of Brexit was it, and of course, that hung parliament has led to all this?

The will-o-the-people is clearly not that emphatic. I have changed my mind, we need another referendum even though I hate the things!

But the Labour Party that won those seats was also advocating that Brexit means Brexit (insofar as they didn't - and haven't since - elucidated what Brexit actually means...).

Except that they have said they are in favour of remaining within the CU, and almost all of their MPs are not sympathetic to hard brexit. Therefore the will of the people is far from clear. When you combine that with the MPs on the Conservative Party that are hostile to Brexit and the other parties including (I hate to have to mention them) the SNP it becomes clear that it is not clear at all. Brexit can't be Brexit, because there is no clear mandate for any one version

grabcocque

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Politically he might be right.

Not how it has been minuted by the Guardian:

"UK cannot revoke article 50 just to buy further time for negotiation, attorney general says"

That’s true, any revocation must be unequivocal. Revoking just to invoke again will surely be contested at the ECJ.

The ECJ didn't define unequivocal, but its meaning is fairly clear. A revocation that exists just to buy the UK time is clearly not unequivocal and would be disallowed.

Gardenwalker

I only ever see the occasional clip of the House on social media.

I think there would be an audience for a weekly round up, well-edited, but free of commentary and voiceover, featuring the most interesting contributions in the Commons, the Lords, and in public speeches. Not in a satirical or trivial way but genuinely aiming to create an ongoing narrative of our political scene.

Well, an audience of at least one, anyway...

Slackbladder

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Politically he might be right.

Not how it has been minuted by the Guardian:

"UK cannot revoke article 50 just to buy further time for negotiation, attorney general says"

That’s true, any revocation must be unequivocal. Revoking just to invoke again will surely be contested at the ECJ.

The ECJ didn't define unequivocal, but its meaning is fairly clear. A revocation that exists just to buy the UK time is clearly not unequivocal and would be disallowed.

It's a bit tricky to judge that though. I mean, you could say 'We revoke A50' which would unequivocal, and accepted, and then have a GE, where a leave party wins, and envokes it again.

How can the ECJ predict the future, or know the minds of those which re-voke it.

grabcocque

Gardenwalker said:

I only ever see the occasional clip of the House on social media.

I think there would be an audience for a weekly round up, well-edited, but free of commentary and voiceover, featuring the most interesting contributions in the Commons, the Lords, and in public speeches. Not in a satirical or trivial way but genuinely aiming to create an ongoing narrative of our political scene.

Well, an audience of at least one, anyway...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qtqd

kinabalu

The SI market: 222/230

This is a professional sell and an amateur buy.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sean_F said:

@Marquee Mark was correct that Kevin Foster will support the Deal.

Marquee Mark was correct

There's a phrase you don't often see written!

(just muttered, grudgingly, sotto voce... )

But, Hugo Swire will not.

Right now I'm cheering on every rebel.

If you're prediction of 200 - 205 is correct, how much do you stand to win?

Oh not that much, under £200. I try not to put too much faith in the actions of MPs.

grabcocque

kinabalu said:

The SI market: 222/230

This is a professional sell and an amateur buy.

There seems to be some tension around the magic 200 majority for No.

Sean_F

Birmingham Live reports that Eddie Hughes and Mike Wood will vote in favour of the Deal.

Pulpstar

Sold 222 @ £2/pt for a bit of fun and interest.

Nigel_Foremain

Slackbladder said:

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Politically he might be right.

Not how it has been minuted by the Guardian:

"UK cannot revoke article 50 just to buy further time for negotiation, attorney general says"

That’s true, any revocation must be unequivocal. Revoking just to invoke again will surely be contested at the ECJ.

The ECJ didn't define unequivocal, but its meaning is fairly clear. A revocation that exists just to buy the UK time is clearly not unequivocal and would be disallowed.

It's a bit tricky to judge that though. I mean, you could say 'We revoke A50' which would unequivocal, and accepted, and then have a GE, where a leave party wins, and envokes it again.

How can the ECJ predict the future, or know the minds of those which re-voke it.

An equivocal definition of unequivocal is an interesting irony. Sir Humphrey would like that one

TOPPING

Richard_Tyndall said:

The problem for Mike and others using the GFA to justify the backstop is that they have things the wrong way round.

There is nothing in the GFA at all about the border between NI and Eire. As such a hard border might break the spirit of the GFA (And I think it does) but it does not break the letter of the agreement.

The backstop on the other hand breaks the letter of the GFA. Specifically section 1 iii in so far as it changes the status of NI without the consent of its people.

Now personally I still back the deal but to imply it is in accordance with the GFA is clearly wrong.

SNOOOOOOOOOOZE.

First of all - it is leaving the EU that is a change to the status of NI; the backstop, should it come into force, would be maintaining it.

Secondly, "with the consent of a majority of its people;" - are you sure you want to go there?

But finally, that is piddling about with distractions in this instance. The main issue is quite clear - a hardening of the border in Northern Ireland is something that neither the UK government nor the EU wants nor can countenance.

grabcocque

Slackbladder said:

It's a bit tricky to judge that though. I mean, you could say 'We revoke A50' which would unequivocal, and accepted, and then have a GE, where a leave party wins, and envokes it again.

How can the ECJ predict the future, or know the minds of those which re-voke it.

You're right, of course. But I suspect that if the Council were happy that the revocation was unequivocal, then there'd be nobody asking the ECJ to get involved, and I think the Council is likely to find anything preferable to letting this farce continue.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1085189608969629696?s=21

Beverley_C

grabcocque said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Geoffrey Cox shouted it in a big theatrical voice so it is true by definition.

Loud, shouty men do not impress me, nor do I take the amount of bombast they can convey as an indication of their dependability.

Mr Cox's job is to say anything to minimise Mrs May's defeat.

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1085189608969629696?s=21

The way to take No Deal off the table is to replace it with something.

Like May's Deal.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1085190218783682561

Foxy

Beverley_C said:

grabcocque said:

SandyRentool said:

Cox reckons that if we Revoke Article 50 we can then NEVER trigger is ever again.

Surely that can't be right?

Geoffrey Cox shouted it in a big theatrical voice so it is true by definition.

Loud, shouty men do not impress me, nor do I take the amount of bombast they can convey as an indication of their dependability.

Mr Cox's job is to say anything to minimise Mrs May's defeat.

He is going to have to shout a lot louder then!

grabcocque

Beverley_C said:

Loud, shouty men do not impress me, nor do I take the amount of bombast they can convey as an indication of their dependability.

Sadly, vast numbers of mostly white, male Tories do not agree with us. Hence people being deeply impressed with Cox despite the fact that he's parroting the same shit as May's been feeding us for 18 months.

We are societally programmed to defer to people like Cox, and they are societally programmed to believe they deserve that deference.

Fuck that.

grabcocque

After today, surely May needs a new Chief Whip and Leader of the House? Together they tried every underhanded trick they had at their disposal to stop this catastrophic defeat happening, and they failed.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

Birmingham Live reports that Eddie Hughes and Mike Wood will vote in favour of the Deal.

Have you a link? Mike Wood had previously said that he was opposed to the deal and so far as I'm aware Eddie Hughes has played his cards close to his chest.

MarqueeMark

grabcocque said:

Beverley_C said:

Loud, shouty men do not impress me, nor do I take the amount of bombast they can convey as an indication of their dependability.

Sadly, vast numbers of mostly white, male Tories do not agree with us. Hence people being deeply impressed with Cox despite the fact that he's parroting the same shit as May's been feeding us for 18 months.

We are societally programmed to defer to people like Cox, and they are societally programmed to believe they deserve that deference.

Fuck that.

Loud shouty left-wing women don't impress me. And hell, there sure are plenty....