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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebels without a get-out clause. Why you shouldn’t expect many declared Leave opponents of the deal to back down
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1 - Something. Has. Changed. Feels like patience has run out, hence the defeats last week and refusing to kick the can down the road or delay any more. Maybe that was the message MPs got over Christmas - 'I just want it resolved one way or the other' rather than support / opposition to the specific deal. Hard to see T May getting away with promising to renegotiate after defeat now.
2 - I still think the real danger is the Benn amendment this week, and I would vote against it even though I agree with every word. If that passes, there is no yes/no vote on the meaningful vote, the Brexiteers get to keep their powder dry and blame the Remainers for the vote not passing. And the meaningful vote would be seen to be lost by 10 votes or so. Surely Hilary Benn is too smart to let that go to a vote - isn't he?
3 - What I really don't get, is the lack of urgency. Before Christmas we were told that the deal had to be agreed by November or December at the latest, so the UK could ratify, legislate as needed, and all EU approval processes could take place. Now there's talk of going right up against the end March deadline. Was the original timetable BS? Are we actually going to have to extend A50 even if the meaningful vote wins tomorrow? Grateful for any guidance on that - as it seems terms have totally changed on this.
* The EU process is already trundling on - The European Parliament isn't waiting for the British. So from the EU end it was agreed in November and everything's on schedule.
* The UK side is apparently very tight even if it passes tonight, although I guess you can shovel stuff through parliament pretty fast if you don't worry about checking whether it's right
Now anything just over 100 would seem like a success.
I am struggling to see this vote go down by less than 200 on the present figures, possibly 240, a truly epic fail. I think tomorrow will prove to be May's last day as PM.
That a division be created to amend the standing orders as per Boles/Bercow and Art 50 be struck out with a single line rescind bill (Should nothing else be agreed), thus leading to no Brexit - which is the opposite of what they wish to happen ?
Irrespective of the Grieve amendment, I think she needs to announce Plan B tomorrow evening, immediately after the vote.
All eyes are on whether May can beat this record.
“a sort of communist-Marxist....that likes to travel First Class...
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jan/14/chumbawamba-alice-nutter-trust-tv
Gotta love these Corbynistas.
The simple fact is May’s deal satisfies no one and lacks sufficient merit to attract support from those who are not payroll vote. Staying in the EU didn’t satisfy the electorate so we are now in the position where Parliament is putting itself at odds with the electorate which is not a great place to be.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/john-mcdonnell-says-didnt-hear-13854533
Never heard it, never saw anything me...never...even when standing right next to him. Total one off, never happened before. Oh the time I should under a load of hammer and sickle flags, no I didn't seem them either...
Hasn't this "character" been spending the past few weeks trying to get Con MPs to vote for May's deal? A deal over which he's now resigned? What the hell has he been doing since November?
I have to say these past weeks really have shown the Tory Party at their absolute most self-indulgent worst. I mean we're going down to 1990s levels self-indulgence.
Fortunately for them they don't have a LOTO like Blair to take advantage but the Conservatives really are testing the people's patience.
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1084512498609504257
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46867286
- and not just for the property market but for any contract.
I bet he wouldn't say that about respecting different cultures if the institution he was visiting banned gay men. But banning women, hey, that's OK.
JUST MAYBE it works for the EMA, if it is illegal for the EMA to operate outside the EU.
Or by some tortuous known unknown there is a GE and that risks their jobs (some of them).
I don't see how they get what they want by voting against the deal.
Or am I being too logical?
I think that would buy them considerable goodwill from the Gov't in as to what happens next.
The landlords are saying that departure from the EU was not unforeseeable, not least because Article 50 has been in existence since the Lisbon Treaty came into force.
But it's just an example of the sorts of legal cases that will occur if/when Brexit happens and depending on how it happens.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121
It's times like this political nerds, junkies, aholics or whatever love. On a personal level, it may be nice for January 15th to be remembered for more than just being my birthday.
Happy Birthday to me!! Happy Birthday to me!!
I suspect, were I playing such markets, the Deal will do a little better than some think - I could see maybe 250 MPs supporting it so that still means a likely heavy defeat unless something dramatic happens (mass Labour abstention looks the most plausible).
Presumably, May and the last of her sycophants in the ditch have got a response planned should the vote not be favourable tomorrow evening:
There are five things I cannot see happening (which doesn't mean they won't or can't but would be such a volte face even her loyalist apologists on here will be doing contortions trying to justify and support it).
One is May resigning, two is May supporting a second Referendum, three is May calling for the revocation of A50 and the cancellation of Brexit, four is May calling a General Election and five is May pivoting to No Deal.
While some or indeed many on here might like one or more of these to happen they won't.
The only option will be for May to kick the much-abused can down the road one last time and declare she will go to Brussels and seek an extension to A50 to enable further negotiation (primarily on the backstop provision) to take place after which the slightly amended WA will be brought back to the Commons for a second time possibly before the end of the month.
As to what will happen if the WA is rejected again no one will answer.
What about other sorts of institutions or groups? I bloody hate it when liberals praising diversity out of one side of their mouth are prepared to throw some group over just to curry favour. Leo - like so many - is just a hypocrite.
Many happy returns !
But of course - for some of the stupider liberals - it always looks better to praise some foreign, exotic and dark-skinned bigot while chastising home-grown ones.
Incidentally I think the answer to Cyclefree's question is that the purpose of the lease was to allow the EMA to occupy, and therefore frustration must focus on their ability to occupy and not their subtenants.
I hope you are spending it doing something wonderful and enjoyable and not concerning yourself with Parliamentary nitwittery.
You’re about 100 years late. We didn’t get thanked for it last time.
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2019/01/Setting-the-record-straight-full-employment-report.pdf
It appears it is more technical that that; that the EMA wouldn't get its "rights and privileges" outside the EU (whatever that means).
Frustration of a lease for reasons unrelated to the property itself is almost unheard of. It occupies two paragraphs of my handbook.
She has no choice but to resign or call another election which apparently CCHQ were war gaming before Christmas. If she loses control of events, it’s difficult to see how she staves off defeat in a VONC.
I don’t expect her to call another GE, but she has to do something and that looks like the only way she keeps control.
As I've reached the age, according to my late Mother of "old enough to know better", I shall confine myself to trying to nick a few quid from the bookies in East Surrey tomorrow.
Tories 41
Lab 35
Lib Dems 11
UKIP 4
It is a move worthy of some of the more blockheaded denizens of May’s cabinet.
Mind you I've seen other EU departments waste £50,000 to check that what they had been told to was correct so I'm not surprised.
However, the EMA signed the contract to enter the lease in 2011, three years before the lease itself was signed. Hence, the argument that this contract was frustrated.
I'd still be very surprised if they won though, because assignment or sub-letting would still enable them to fulfil their obligations to the landlord. Apparently, they simply agreed far too high a rent, which means they would suffer a loss on assignment or subletting.
Quite part from the DUP, I cannot envisage a single Conservative MP failing to support a Conservative Government in a VONC. It's the ultimate betrayal and would mean expulsion and deselection (probably not in that order).
I can quite easily believe the only thing the 318 Conservative MPs have in common is their detestation (or fear) (or contempt) of Corbyn and any Government he led. That will be enough to vote down any VONC.
Corbyn must know this - I don't understand the politics of it from his perspective.