Is now a good time for a reminder of some selected Eurozone unemployment rates?
France 9.3% Italy 9.7% Spain 15.2% Greece 19.0%
At least Ireland and Portugal appear to be in better shape, but all the same...
But here's the funny thing, if we look at employment growth between 1/1/99 and now, then Spain is top of the charts, with a big increase in the labour participation rate, and we've only done about as well as France. (We have, however, done a lot better than Greece.)
Raw unemployment numbers, I think, can be very misleading. I find it astonishing, for example, that since the beginning of the Euro, the proportion of people in work in the EU has increased markedly, while it has declined in the US.
My intention was really to draw attention to the lack of preparedness of our economies (I include us in all of this, of course) for the next downturn - which might also, for all we know, trigger a fresh outbreak of the Eurozone crisis. The UK isn't doing brilliantly, but at least we're not locked in a currency union with Germany, our major banks have been shored up, and if there is going to be more trouble we're not in nearly as vulnerable a state as some. Any educated guesses, for example, on when the Italian national debt might slip over the event horizon and become unserviceable without a Greek-style bailout?
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
Because, like it or not, voters do listen to what politicians say.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
Because, like it or not, voters do listen to what politicians say.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
Seems to bounce around, was particularly warm in March 2017, for example:
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
For the love of God can we just have the Meaningful Vote now. Nothing crystallises until that wavefunction collapses.
I watched some of the debate today in a sparse chamber and genuinely interesting as it was to see views from all areas of the spectrum, not one person said any new thing that hadn't been said - and most of them said that noone had say anything new.
Everything that needs to be said has been said. But not everybody has said it yet.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
I've been active in every General Election since 1966. Every single one was described as the last chance to do something or other - stop the unions, save the NHS, protect our independence, preserve democracy, whatever. It was never entirely true or entirely believed. Democracy is a good thing, but it tends to take the form of organised hysteria.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
Because, like it or not, voters do listen to what politicians say.
When it suits them.
But they are foolish to do so.
What do you think of Nick Clegg? I suppose you are a big fan because voters should have expected him to go back on his word - if not they were fools
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.
That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
Simply that there is still some time to run unti we get to Easter.
OK, fair point. It is a late one this year, isn't it - end of April.
True. Although the statistic only makes sense if we consider whenever is mean Easter.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
Because, like it or not, voters do listen to what politicians say.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
I've been active in every General Election since 1966. Every single one was described as the last chance to do something or other - stop the unions, save the NHS, protect our independence, preserve democracy, whatever. It was never entirely true or entirely believed. Democracy is a good thing, but it tends to take the form of organised hysteria.
General elections occur on a regular basis. It's entirely reasonable to believe a politician when they say this will be a once in a generation vote on an issue. You wouldn't expect yearly votes on independence, would you?
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
Salmond said the same thing.
Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
Because, like it or not, voters do listen to what politicians say.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
It snowed quite heavily in December 2017, just 13 months ago.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.
That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
Simply that there is still some time to run unti we get to Easter.
OK, fair point. It is a late one this year, isn't it - end of April.
True. Although the statistic only makes sense if we consider whenever is mean Easter.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.
That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
Simply that there is still some time to run unti we get to Easter.
OK, fair point. It is a late one this year, isn't it - end of April.
True. Although the statistic only makes sense if we consider whenever is mean Easter.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
It snowed quite heavily in December 2017, just 13 months ago.
The coldest day in the UK, on average, is 17th February.
The UK is a maritime nation, and the long lag between the winter solstice (21st December) and the coldest day is caused by the time taken for the North Atlantic to reach its coldest. As the Atlantic warms due to climate change, it'll take longer to cool down every year so the UK's coldest days will get later and later in the calendar.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
The seasons haven't shifted. They may get warmer or colder overall but the relationship between the seasons and the timing of them is dependent on the Earth's axial tilt relative to the ecliptic plane and that has not changed.
Well, it should have been shortlisted for the Man Booker Prize.
It is a fantastic work of fiction.
We all have our favourite sections, Mine is the National Care Service which only costs 3 billion.
Voting:
*Your choice is a minuscule and completely inconsequential percentage of the whole *In a typical General Election most of the seats are safe anyway *If you are in one of the lucky few places outside of red/blue/yellow rosette on a pig territory then it's usually a matter of picking the politician or party that doesn't make you want to vomit, rather than one you actually like *Or of picking one you despise to keep out another one you loathe even more *Election manifestos are full of fictitious and unaffordable pledges, most of which are made with the express intention of conning people, rather than actually being fulfilled *Most of those policies not simply invented as a PR exercise are nonetheless altered or jettisoned as and when it becomes expedient to do so
Quite honestly, the more I think about it the more I'm amazed that so many people still bother.
Now replace it with the name of the minister in question: “GRAYLING:”.
Bit less compelling now, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, Corbyn would be rubbing his hands if this were actually to come to pass. A resurgent UKIP-BNP party would mostly take votes from the Conservatives in working class Northern constituencies, splitting the non-Labour vote and helping Corbyn on the way to a majority. It might win a couple of seats in its own right in the Gravesham-Clacton-Boston belt, but under FPTP, its main effect would be to hobble the Conservatives.
Further evidence that TM is gaining support from voters and mps are not listening
It does look as if TM is the one in touch with the public
Typical Tory equates "tory voters" with the public at large. Just a reminder the majority of the public didn't vote Tory in 2017.
It would mean across the public at large something like:
Q4. MPs are to vote on the Government’s Brexit withdrawal agreement on [X day], how would you like MPs to vote?
For the deal 38% (+7) Against the deal 40% (-6)
That's quite a turnaround from when the first polls on the deal were published.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Now replace it with the name of the minister in question: “GRAYLING:”.
Bit less compelling now, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, Corbyn would be rubbing his hands if this were actually to come to pass. A resurgent UKIP-BNP party would mostly take votes from the Conservatives in working class Northern constituencies, splitting the non-Labour vote and helping Corbyn on the way to a majority. It might win a couple of seats in its own right in the Gravesham-Clacton-Boston belt, but under FPTP, its main effect would be to hobble the Conservatives.
Depends, I thought a surprising fraction of the ex-UKIP vote went to Labour.
That graph is brilliant - frequency computed over a 5.7 million year cycle. I wonder what causes the slight peak on April 19?
Well it's complicated, but Wikipedia describes it well and you have to remember there was no lunar theory when Clavius drew up the Gregorian calendar so he used long term averages for what was known about the lunar orbit. It's never been the real moon which has been used but the Paschal moon as determined in the tables. Sometimes the wrong date of Easter will be determined if the real moon is used.
Every second lunar month has only 29 days, so one day must have two (of the 30) epact labels assigned to it. The reason for moving around the epact label "xxv/25" rather than any other seems to be the following: According to Dionysius (in his introductory letter to Petronius), the Nicene council, on the authority of Eusebius, established that the first month of the ecclesiastical lunar year (the paschal month) should start between 8 March and 5 April inclusive, and the 14th day fall between 21 March and 18 April inclusive, thus spanning a period of (only) 29 days. A new moon on 7 March, which has epact label "xxiv", has its 14th day (full moon) on 20 March, which is too early (not following 20 March). So years with an epact of "xxiv", if the lunar month beginning on 7 March had 30 days, would have their paschal new moon on 6 April, which is too late: the full moon would fall on 19 April, and Easter could be as late as 26 April. In the Julian calendar the latest date of Easter was 25 April, and the Gregorian reform maintained that limit. So the paschal full moon must fall no later than 18 April and the new moon on 5 April, which has epact label "xxv". 5 April must therefore have its double epact labels "xxiv" and "xxv". Then epact "xxv" must be treated differently, as explained in the paragraph above.
As a consequence, 19 April is the date on which Easter falls most frequently in the Gregorian calendar
My intention was really to draw attention to the lack of preparedness of our economies (I include us in all of this, of course) for the next downturn - which might also, for all we know, trigger a fresh outbreak of the Eurozone crisis. The UK isn't doing brilliantly, but at least we're not locked in a currency union with Germany, our major banks have been shored up, and if there is going to be more trouble we're not in nearly as vulnerable a state as some. Any educated guesses, for example, on when the Italian national debt might slip over the event horizon and become unserviceable without a Greek-style bailout?
Well, the M5S/LN coalition has completely failed to tackle any of the endemic issues with the Italian economy. It continues to have a non-functional legal system, endemic corruption, an inflexible labour market and appalling demographics. Indeed, some of their policies will only worsen these issues.
Now, would Italy do better outside the Eurozone? Almost certainly, yes. However, it's hard to see how they get from here to there. (See my video "Italy: Fifty Ways To Leave The Euro".)
Back to your original question, my guess would be that the next meaningful recession in Italy will push debt-to-GDP up towards 140% of GDP, and that will likely result in yields pushing ever higher. At this point, *something* will need to be done. Either there will need to be some kind of restructuring of Italian debt, or the Northern Europeans will need to bite the bullet and agree some kind of of Euro bond*.
The good news for the Eurozone is that the Italian banking system is relatively well insulated, in that banks are almost entirely domestically funded. So, the knock on effects on the financial system should be containable.
However, the Italian state and people are completely unprepared for a debt restructuring. If we assume that we need to bring debt-to-GDP down to 120%, that means a lot of people are going to be out of pocket. (And I would note that Italian government bonds are largely domestically owned. That's a lot of retirees taking a big hit.)
Final point in a slightly disjointed post: 2.85%. That's what 10 year Italian government bonds are currently yielding. I am not a buyer.
* The best idea I heard was for Eurozone countries to be allowed to issue jointly backed bonds up to 60% of GDP. These would - being effectively backed by the ECB - have very low interest rates. What this would mean for Italy, is that for the next eight years or so, it would have be issuing bonds that would have a ready market. This mana
Further evidence that TM is gaining support from voters and mps are not listening
It does look as if TM is the one in touch with the public
Typical Tory equates "tory voters" with the public at large. Just a reminder the majority of the public didn't vote Tory in 2017.
Tory members only need non-tories to lift them in and out of the bath and die in their wars. Beyond that, their strong preference would be that we starved to death in a ditch,
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
Now replace it with the name of the minister in question: “GRAYLING:”.
Bit less compelling now, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, Corbyn would be rubbing his hands if this were actually to come to pass. A resurgent UKIP-BNP party would mostly take votes from the Conservatives in working class Northern constituencies, splitting the non-Labour vote and helping Corbyn on the way to a majority. It might win a couple of seats in its own right in the Gravesham-Clacton-Boston belt, but under FPTP, its main effect would be to hobble the Conservatives.
I would suggest you read the poll rather than refer to Grayling who we all agree is hopeless
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
The seasons haven't shifted. They may get warmer or colder overall but the relationship between the seasons and the timing of them is dependent on the Earth's axial tilt relative to the ecliptic plane and that has not changed.
Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
Bring on the reurn of Nick Palmer!
Given a choice between the two, I'd have no hesitation voting for Nick P.
Thanks! I always say that she gives the Tories more trouble than I did . I put out a sympathetic tweet last week when she was being harassed.
Objectively I think she's courageous and never hesitates to take on opponents with her honest opinions, but also pointlessly aggressive in all directions. I've always known Labour people who rather like her and Tories who really don't: her canvass plans and other internal stuff were leaked to me every month. Her current opponent is a mild-mannered leftie, much like me, and he too is getting some quiet Tory support. I'd think he's the favourite at the moment, as she is too doggedly Tory in everything except Europe to really attract Labour votes to make up for the people she's annoyed.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
The seasons haven't shifted. They may get warmer or colder overall but the relationship between the seasons and the timing of them is dependent on the Earth's axial tilt relative to the ecliptic plane and that has not changed.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
The seasons haven't shifted. They may get warmer or colder overall but the relationship between the seasons and the timing of them is dependent on the Earth's axial tilt relative to the ecliptic plane and that has not changed.
My intention was really to draw attention to the lack of preparedness of our economies (I include us in all of this, of course) for the next downturn - which might also, for all we know, trigger a fresh outbreak of the Eurozone crisis. The UK isn't doing brilliantly, but at least we're not locked in a currency union with Germany, our major banks have been shored up, and if there is going to be more trouble we're not in nearly as vulnerable a state as some. Any educated guesses, for example, on when the Italian national debt might slip over the event horizon and become unserviceable without a Greek-style bailout?
Well, the M5S/LN coalition has completely failed to tackle any of the endemic issues with the Italian economy. It continues to have a non-functional legal system, endemic corruption, an inflexible labour market and appalling demographics. Indeed, some of their policies will only worsen these issues.
Now, would Italy do better outside the Eurozone? Almost certainly, yes. However, it's hard to see how they get from here to there. (See my video "Italy: Fifty Ways To Leave The Euro".)
Back to your original question, my guess would be that the next meaningful recession in Italy will push debt-to-GDP up towards 140% of GDP, and that will likely result in yields pushing ever higher. At this point, *something* will need to be done. Either there will need to be some kind of restructuring of Italian debt, or the Northern Europeans will need to bite the bullet and agree some kind of of Euro bond.
The good news for the Eurozone is that the Italian banking system is relatively well insulated, in that banks are almost entirely domestically funded. So, the knock on effects on the financial system should be containable.
However, the Italian state and people are completely unprepared for a debt restructuring. If we assume that we need to bring debt-to-GDP down to 120%, that means a lot of people are going to be out of pocket. (And I would note that Italian government bonds are largely domestically owned. That's a lot of retirees taking a big hit.)
Final point in a slightly disjointed post: 2.85%. That's what 10 year Italian government bonds are currently yielding. I am not a buyer.
Thus, the cohesion of the Eurozone will potentially come to rely on the voters of Italy (an original founder member of the EU's predecessor organisations, and its third largest state) accepting a punishment beating a bit like that doled out to the Greeks, but not quite as bad? And a coalition of recalcitrant right-wing populists and disorganised pseudo-anarchists is expected to obediently wield the baseball bat?
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Further evidence that TM is gaining support from voters and mps are not listening
It does look as if TM is the one in touch with the public
Big_G, a Daily Mail front page isn't evidence of anything at all. Unless you want to know if a 2nd Referendum causes cancer.
There's no polling evidence to suggest anything other than the electorate are violently opposed to Mrs May's deal.
That may suit your agenda but the mail is quoting a poll showing increasing support
Well, we haven't seen this poll so I'll withhold my judgment. But I know you're not an idiot, Big_G, you know full well nothing has changed and Mrs May is going to be the victim of an involuntary parliamentary gangbang on Tuesday with very little romance. You know nothing has changed, what I don't get is why you're trying to talk yourself into hope.
Further evidence that TM is gaining support from voters and mps are not listening
It does look as if TM is the one in touch with the public
Typical Tory equates "tory voters" with the public at large. Just a reminder the majority of the public didn't vote Tory in 2017.
Tory members only need non-tories to lift them in and out of the bath and die in their wars. Beyond that, their strong preference would be that we starved to death in a ditch,
Not this one nor my wife or many thousands of others
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
The seasons haven't shifted. They may get warmer or colder overall but the relationship between the seasons and the timing of them is dependent on the Earth's axial tilt relative to the ecliptic plane and that has not changed.
True but not enough to shift the seasons in any sort of permanent way as was being implied by Anazina.
It will eventually as even with an ecliptic of 22 degrees the different in global weather patterns by this small difference will be huge. Of course before we introduced the Gregorian calendar the winter solstice was falling on 9th December so that had shifted the seasons.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
Not least because it was advisory. Asking for further advice isn't unreasonable in the circumstances of two and a half years' failed effort to come up with an acceptable way to progress the matter.
+1
It makes me laugh some of the nonsense politicians talk on the 2016 referendum.
In politics everything is under a constant barrage of information and pressure to change a policy for better or worse.
It has to be remembered that an advisory referendum (2016) has no legal consequence and the last General Election in 2017 is the true mandate, which was of course in parliamentary arithmetic terms inconclusive. Parliament is where the power resides.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
The hard brexiteers are cheered on by the telegraph and express
The mail is supporting TM deal and 100% anti no deal
All this poll shows is a month of absurd panic headlines about the country running out of food and medicine with roads blocked by stranded lorries has had an impact.
That's all May and her supporters have left - fear. It's a valid political tool but does that mean people support the Deal? No, it means they have been scared into supporting it by conflated tales of the end of civilisation if we leave without a deal on 29/3.
Yes, it's valid but it's tawdry and unworthy of the Prime Minister. If she is unable to convince and persuade, she should accept it not try to coerce and scare people into accepting an item of policy or legislation.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
I think that generally, you're a bit of a c@#t, but that made me spit cheap whisky over my keyboard!
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
Can the moderators not intervene?
This poster is one of the most abusive we've had to put up with.
If his intention is to make his cause look ridiculous, he is succeeding.
The Telegraph's decay from once-respected-if-pompous High Tory rag into a sad alt-reich tribute act with plummeting readership is truly tragic. Or would be if the Telegraph wasn't owned by some weapons-grade thunderc*nts.
Thus, the cohesion of the Eurozone will potentially come to rely on the voters of Italy (an original founder member of the EU's predecessor organisations, and its third largest state) accepting a punishment beating a bit like that doled out to the Greeks, but not quite as bad? And a coalition of recalcitrant right-wing populists and disorganised pseudo-anarchists is expected to obediently wield the baseball bat?
That should be interesting.
Inside or outside the Eurozone or the EU, given the demographics and lack of structural reform, Italy will likely need to go cap in hand to the ECB and/or the IMF at some point*. I think that is probably inevitable.
And when you're turning up and asking for money, well, you're not in a very strong position.
Interesting is an appropriate word.
* Unless, of course, the Eurozone were to have a bout of inflation... say 5% a year for five years... that would knock 30 points off the Italian debt-to-GDP numbers. I don't think this is likely.
2038 will be the next year when the date of Easter given by astronomical calculations (using UTC) gives a different date March 28th from the ecclesiastical date 25th April. The last such occasion was 1981.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
Can the moderators not intervene?
Calm down dear.
Big_G loves it when I'm rude to him because he gets to tut at me in a disapproving paternalist fashion. It's basically a form of erotic roleplay.
Further evidence that TM is gaining support from voters and mps are not listening
It does look as if TM is the one in touch with the public
Big_G, a Daily Mail front page isn't evidence of anything at all. Unless you want to know if a 2nd Referendum causes cancer.
There's no polling evidence to suggest anything other than the electorate are violently opposed to Mrs May's deal.
That may suit your agenda but the mail is quoting a poll showing increasing support
Well, we haven't seen this poll so I'll withhold my judgment. But I know you're not an idiot, Big_G, you know full well nothing has changed and Mrs May is going to be the victim of an involuntary parliamentary gangbang on Tuesday with very little romance. You know nothing has changed, what I don't get is why you're trying to talk yourself into hope.
I know she will lose the vote on tuesday but that in itself is not a bad thing as the way forward should become more obvious
The only issue I am implacably opposed to is no deal and I believe TM will not permit it to happen. Her whole strategy has been to limit the economic damage of brexit and her deal does this short of remaining in the EU
For someone who was remain, has achieved the best deal possible, she simply will not take us off the cliff
My only appeal to you is to moderate your bitterness as it does not help you in your arguments which at times are very good
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
I think that generally, you're a bit of a c@#t, but that made me spit cheap whisky over my keyboard!
If there is one thing you should know about me, it's that I am *definitely* a bit of a c*nt.
The hard brexiteers are cheered on by the telegraph and express
The mail is supporting TM deal and 100% anti no deal
All this poll shows is a month of absurd panic headlines about the country running out of food and medicine with roads blocked by stranded lorries has had an impact.
That's all May and her supporters have left - fear. It's a valid political tool but does that mean people support the Deal? No, it means they have been scared into supporting it by conflated tales of the end of civilisation if we leave without a deal on 29/3.
Yes, it's valid but it's tawdry and unworthy of the Prime Minister. If she is unable to convince and persuade, she should accept it not try to coerce and scare people into accepting an item of policy or legislation.
You seem to be contradicting yourself by acknowledging fear tactics are valid, but then suggesting no one should ever use them as it is unworthy. I know you say they 'should' accept if they are unable to convince and persuade, but if you truly believe that in the absence of other persuasive arguments PM's should not even try fear tactics on their own, it doesn't sound much like you actually think it is valid.
Since you believe it is a valid political tool, when is it acceptable? How many positive arguments must go alongside it? Are they responsible if people focus on the fear tactics even if they are also pushing positive messages? What level of negative messaging is permissable? Who judges that given what one person thinks is inflated others do not? If the politician believes the fearmongering to be true is that ok, even though they are wrong?
I think a change of course probably should have happened some time ago given even all the fear tactics don't seem to have moved MPs to any significant degree (plus negativity is hardly an ideal way of selling something), but I am very confused by what you deign to decide is acceptable or not.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
All polls have house effects. Survation produces different results to Yougov, but polls less frequently.
My only appeal to you is to moderate your bitterness as it does not help you in your arguments which at times are very good
I'm genuinely not bitter, Big_G. I come to PB because I enjoy you guys and your company and your wisdom. It's all meant in the best possible spirit, even when it's not in the best possible taste.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
True, but why are people being asked to vote again when they were told the first vote was final and irreversible, and not subject to a second referendum?
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
I think that generally, you're a bit of a c@#t, but that made me spit cheap whisky over my keyboard!
If there is one thing you should know about me, it's that I am *definitely* a bit of a c*nt.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
Can the moderators not intervene?
Calm down dear.
Big_G loves it when I'm rude to him because he gets to tut at me in a disapproving paternalist fashion. It's basically a form of erotic roleplay.
Actually I do not and I absolutely object to your language.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
True, but why are people being asked to vote again when they were told the first vote was final and irreversible, and not subject to a second referendum?
A lot of people were talking out their arses, or if we wish to be kind, that was the intent at the time (naturally, since remain was expected to win). But statements of intent are irrelevant. Things change, and because of incompetence and division those who want a rerun see their chance and are seizing it.
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
Can the moderators not intervene?
Calm down dear.
Big_G loves it when I'm rude to him because he gets to tut at me in a disapproving paternalist fashion. It's basically a form of erotic roleplay.
Actually I do not and I absolutely object to your language.
Thinking a little more, there are four things that make Italy different from Greece.
Firstly, Greece was running a 7% budget deficit with a 170% debt-to-GDP and a contracting economy. They had no options, because they needed to fund their budget deficit. Italy shouldn't be in such a weak position.
Secondly, Greece was also running a terrible current account deficit. In other words, they needed to import capital (i.e. to borrow from abroad) to pay for their imports. Italy runs a fairly sizeable current account surplus.
Thirdly, Italians don't personally owe very much. Consumer debt is one of the lowest levels in the world.
Fourthly, the Italian state still has loads of assets it can sell. (Unlike Greece.) Back in my fund management days, I got an analyst to total up the stakes in quoted companies (Eni, etc.), and was surprised to discover that a sensible programme to sell off stakes could raise something like 30% of GDP.
All these things mean that Italy won't have to go through the same degree of pain. Pain, sure, but not to the same extent.
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
I can't wait to see that happen. No, I literally can't wait to see that happen!
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
A move I can wholeheartedly support. Apparently Hot Cross Buns used to be season items too, thank goodness we are past those dark times.
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
IIRC Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the Vernal equinox, and as a result of the attentuation of cycles in both the Gregorian calendar and lunar calendars, has a periodicity that repeats every 22,000 thousand years or so.
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
IIRC Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the Vernal equinox, and as a result of the attentuation of cycles in both the Gregorian calendar and lunar calendars, has a periodicity that repeats every 22,000 thousand years or so.
5,700,000 years in the Gregorian calendar or 532 in the Julian.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
Can the moderators not intervene?
Calm down dear.
Big_G loves it when I'm rude to him because he gets to tut at me in a disapproving paternalist fashion. It's basically a form of erotic roleplay.
Actually I do not and I absolutely object to your language.
It is not funny, or clever, and is unacceptable.
Oh yes. That's the stuff.
TELL ME THAT I'VE LET MYSELF DOWN.
Berate me. I'm a naughty boy.
Have you tried sex yet ?
I mean, I occasionally look in at pb.com.
Every time I look in, you seem to be posting violent, aggressive sexual imagery and masturbatory fantasies. I mean not just occasionally, it is 24/7.
The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.
That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
Simply that there is still some time to run unti we get to Easter.
OK, fair point. It is a late one this year, isn't it - end of April.
True. Although the statistic only makes sense if we consider whenever is mean Easter.
That graph is brilliant - frequency computed over a 5.7 million year cycle. I wonder what causes the slight peak on April 19?
It won't come as a surprise that the time series of weather data used to produce the statistic that started this discussion isn't quite so long as that.
David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
True, but why are people being asked to vote again when they were told the first vote was final and irreversible, and not subject to a second referendum?
A lot of people were talking out their arses, or if we wish to be kind, that was the intent at the time (naturally, since remain was expected to win). But statements of intent are irrelevant. Things change, and because of incompetence and division those who want a rerun see their chance and are seizing it.
basically they are telling leave voters to fuck off as their votes don't matter.
Tories will destroy themselves and we get turned into Venezuala by the trots
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
I remember reading, though I can't find any evidence now so maybe I dreamed it, that Cadbury's starts making (and stockpiling) Creme Eggs in September, and stops making them in March.
Lewis Goodall of Sky said today that he has been surprised at how much support TM is gathering across the Country, as he reports from various locations
Support which is miraculous failing to appear in any poll or vote in Parliament. May's desperate rampers have been telling us the mood has been changing since before Christmas.
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
You are losing it. Make your point but unnecessary and abusive language demeans the author
Stuff a bollock in it, grandad. None of us have got time for your triggered old duffer act.
Can the moderators not intervene?
Calm down dear.
Big_G loves it when I'm rude to him because he gets to tut at me in a disapproving paternalist fashion. It's basically a form of erotic roleplay.
Actually I do not and I absolutely object to your language.
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
IIRC Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the Vernal equinox, and as a result of the attentuation of cycles in both the Gregorian calendar and lunar calendars, has a periodicity that repeats every 22,000 thousand years or so.
5,700,000 years in the Gregorian calendar or 532 in the Julian.
Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
Bring on the reurn of Nick Palmer!
Given a choice between the two, I'd have no hesitation voting for Nick P.
Thanks! I always say that she gives the Tories more trouble than I did . I put out a sympathetic tweet last week when she was being harassed.
Objectively I think she's courageous and never hesitates to take on opponents with her honest opinions, but also pointlessly aggressive in all directions.
She did use to work as the Midlands’ own version of Jerry Springer... this shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
(Many of my teenage evenings were wasted staying up to watch Central Weekend!)
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
IIRC Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the Vernal equinox, and as a result of the attentuation of cycles in both the Gregorian calendar and lunar calendars, has a periodicity that repeats every 22,000 thousand years or so.
5,700,000 years in the Gregorian calendar or 532 in the Julian.
They should just pick a date and stick with it.
I'm going to become Pope just so I can say "Easter is the last Sunday in March, IDIOTS" and then die immediately.
There's also some unexpected and unusual repetitions in the dates of Easter too. For instance the Easters we're all living through from 1948 to 2047 will repeat exactly between 2100 and 2199.
Easter was on January 1st this year. Our village Co-Op had Easter eggs on the shelf, so it must be Easter.
IIRC Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the Vernal equinox, and as a result of the attentuation of cycles in both the Gregorian calendar and lunar calendars, has a periodicity that repeats every 22,000 thousand years or so.
5,700,000 years in the Gregorian calendar or 532 in the Julian.
They should just pick a date and stick with it.
Well they're only a couple of thousand years into this thing, it's early days to be locking things down.
Comments
It is interesting to me that it is always the LibDems who are most enthusiastic about ignoring a democratic vote.
And they wonder why they are on 5 per cent in the polls !
At least in the Labour Party there is some embarrassed realisation of the awkwardness of it all.
A sudden stratospheric warming, a la last year. The seasons have shifted. December is largely an autumn month. March is winter.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
But they are foolish to do so.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/322658/monthly-average-daily-temperatures-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
It is a fantastic work of fiction.
We all have our favourite sections, Mine is the National Care Service which only costs 3 billion.
https://twitter.com/UK_Together/status/506899714923843584
It does look as if TM is the one in touch with the public
Q4. MPs are to vote on the Government’s Brexit withdrawal agreement on [X day], how would you like MPs to vote?
For the deal 38% (+7)
Against the deal 40% (-6)
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2012/dec/30/weatherwatch-records-temperature-cold
The UK is a maritime nation, and the long lag between the winter solstice (21st December) and the coldest day is caused by the time taken for the North Atlantic to reach its coldest. As the Atlantic warms due to climate change, it'll take longer to cool down every year so the UK's coldest days will get later and later in the calendar.
*Your choice is a minuscule and completely inconsequential percentage of the whole
*In a typical General Election most of the seats are safe anyway
*If you are in one of the lucky few places outside of red/blue/yellow rosette on a pig territory then it's usually a matter of picking the politician or party that doesn't make you want to vomit, rather than one you actually like
*Or of picking one you despise to keep out another one you loathe even more
*Election manifestos are full of fictitious and unaffordable pledges, most of which are made with the express intention of conning people, rather than actually being fulfilled
*Most of those policies not simply invented as a PR exercise are nonetheless altered or jettisoned as and when it becomes expedient to do so
Quite honestly, the more I think about it the more I'm amazed that so many people still bother.
First line of that headline: “MINISTER:”.
Now replace it with the name of the minister in question: “GRAYLING:”.
Bit less compelling now, isn’t it?
Meanwhile, Corbyn would be rubbing his hands if this were actually to come to pass. A resurgent UKIP-BNP party would mostly take votes from the Conservatives in working class Northern constituencies, splitting the non-Labour vote and helping Corbyn on the way to a majority. It might win a couple of seats in its own right in the Gravesham-Clacton-Boston belt, but under FPTP, its main effect would be to hobble the Conservatives.
There's no polling evidence to suggest anything other than the electorate are violently opposed to Mrs May's deal.
Every second lunar month has only 29 days, so one day must have two (of the 30) epact labels assigned to it. The reason for moving around the epact label "xxv/25" rather than any other seems to be the following: According to Dionysius (in his introductory letter to Petronius), the Nicene council, on the authority of Eusebius, established that the first month of the ecclesiastical lunar year (the paschal month) should start between 8 March and 5 April inclusive, and the 14th day fall between 21 March and 18 April inclusive, thus spanning a period of (only) 29 days. A new moon on 7 March, which has epact label "xxiv", has its 14th day (full moon) on 20 March, which is too early (not following 20 March). So years with an epact of "xxiv", if the lunar month beginning on 7 March had 30 days, would have their paschal new moon on 6 April, which is too late: the full moon would fall on 19 April, and Easter could be as late as 26 April. In the Julian calendar the latest date of Easter was 25 April, and the Gregorian reform maintained that limit. So the paschal full moon must fall no later than 18 April and the new moon on 5 April, which has epact label "xxv". 5 April must therefore have its double epact labels "xxiv" and "xxv". Then epact "xxv" must be treated differently, as explained in the paragraph above.
As a consequence, 19 April is the date on which Easter falls most frequently in the Gregorian calendar
Now, would Italy do better outside the Eurozone? Almost certainly, yes. However, it's hard to see how they get from here to there. (See my video "Italy: Fifty Ways To Leave The Euro".)
Back to your original question, my guess would be that the next meaningful recession in Italy will push debt-to-GDP up towards 140% of GDP, and that will likely result in yields pushing ever higher. At this point, *something* will need to be done. Either there will need to be some kind of restructuring of Italian debt, or the Northern Europeans will need to bite the bullet and agree some kind of of Euro bond*.
The good news for the Eurozone is that the Italian banking system is relatively well insulated, in that banks are almost entirely domestically funded. So, the knock on effects on the financial system should be containable.
However, the Italian state and people are completely unprepared for a debt restructuring. If we assume that we need to bring debt-to-GDP down to 120%, that means a lot of people are going to be out of pocket. (And I would note that Italian government bonds are largely domestically owned. That's a lot of retirees taking a big hit.)
Final point in a slightly disjointed post: 2.85%. That's what 10 year Italian government bonds are currently yielding. I am not a buyer.
* The best idea I heard was for Eurozone countries to be allowed to issue jointly backed bonds up to 60% of GDP. These would - being effectively backed by the ECB - have very low interest rates. What this would mean for Italy, is that for the next eight years or so, it would have be issuing bonds that would have a ready market. This mana
Here we are a month later. So where is it?
The mood hasn't changed. NOTHING has fucking changed.
All that useless twat has done is wasted a month of everyone's time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecliptic#/media/File:Obliquity_of_the_ecliptic_laskar.PNG
Objectively I think she's courageous and never hesitates to take on opponents with her honest opinions, but also pointlessly aggressive in all directions. I've always known Labour people who rather like her and Tories who really don't: her canvass plans and other internal stuff were leaked to me every month. Her current opponent is a mild-mannered leftie, much like me, and he too is getting some quiet Tory support. I'd think he's the favourite at the moment, as she is too doggedly Tory in everything except Europe to really attract Labour votes to make up for the people she's annoyed.
The hard brexiteers are cheered on by the telegraph and express
The mail is supporting TM deal and 100% anti no deal
That should be interesting.
It makes me laugh some of the nonsense politicians talk on the 2016 referendum.
In politics everything is under a constant barrage of information and pressure to change a policy for better or worse.
It has to be remembered that an advisory referendum (2016) has no legal consequence and the last General Election in 2017 is the true mandate, which was of course in parliamentary arithmetic terms inconclusive. Parliament is where the power resides.
That's all May and her supporters have left - fear. It's a valid political tool but does that mean people support the Deal? No, it means they have been scared into supporting it by conflated tales of the end of civilisation if we leave without a deal on 29/3.
Yes, it's valid but it's tawdry and unworthy of the Prime Minister. If she is unable to convince and persuade, she should accept it not try to coerce and scare people into accepting an item of policy or legislation.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083844353028698113
This poster is one of the most abusive we've had to put up with.
If his intention is to make his cause look ridiculous, he is succeeding.
And when you're turning up and asking for money, well, you're not in a very strong position.
Interesting is an appropriate word.
* Unless, of course, the Eurozone were to have a bout of inflation... say 5% a year for five years... that would knock 30 points off the Italian debt-to-GDP numbers. I don't think this is likely.
Big_G loves it when I'm rude to him because he gets to tut at me in a disapproving paternalist fashion. It's basically a form of erotic roleplay.
The only issue I am implacably opposed to is no deal and I believe TM will not permit it to happen. Her whole strategy has been to limit the economic damage of brexit and her deal does this short of remaining in the EU
For someone who was remain, has achieved the best deal possible, she simply will not take us off the cliff
My only appeal to you is to moderate your bitterness as it does not help you in your arguments which at times are very good
Since you believe it is a valid political tool, when is it acceptable? How many positive arguments must go alongside it? Are they responsible if people focus on the fear tactics even if they are also pushing positive messages? What level of negative messaging is permissable? Who judges that given what one person thinks is inflated others do not? If the politician believes the fearmongering to be true is that ok, even though they are wrong?
I think a change of course probably should have happened some time ago given even all the fear tactics don't seem to have moved MPs to any significant degree (plus negativity is hardly an ideal way of selling something), but I am very confused by what you deign to decide is acceptable or not.
Also I have been drinking V O D K A
It is not funny, or clever, and is unacceptable.
TELL ME THAT I'VE LET MYSELF DOWN.
Berate me. I'm a naughty boy.
Thinking a little more, there are four things that make Italy different from Greece.
Firstly, Greece was running a 7% budget deficit with a 170% debt-to-GDP and a contracting economy. They had no options, because they needed to fund their budget deficit. Italy shouldn't be in such a weak position.
Secondly, Greece was also running a terrible current account deficit. In other words, they needed to import capital (i.e. to borrow from abroad) to pay for their imports. Italy runs a fairly sizeable current account surplus.
Thirdly, Italians don't personally owe very much. Consumer debt is one of the lowest levels in the world.
Fourthly, the Italian state still has loads of assets it can sell. (Unlike Greece.) Back in my fund management days, I got an analyst to total up the stakes in quoted companies (Eni, etc.), and was surprised to discover that a sensible programme to sell off stakes could raise something like 30% of GDP.
All these things mean that Italy won't have to go through the same degree of pain. Pain, sure, but not to the same extent.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46834533
I'm beginning to wonder if we'd even notice if Corbyn took over. A move I can wholeheartedly support. Apparently Hot Cross Buns used to be season items too, thank goodness we are past those dark times.
I mean, I occasionally look in at pb.com.
Every time I look in, you seem to be posting violent, aggressive sexual imagery and masturbatory fantasies. I mean not just occasionally, it is 24/7.
You need a break.
Maybe you just need to get laid.
Tories will destroy themselves and we get turned into Venezuala by the trots
Oh well ,at least it will be interesting
(Many of my teenage evenings were wasted staying up to watch Central Weekend!)