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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Article 50 exit date gets deferred it could raise doubt

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626


    When May called the election her main justification was this:

    "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course."

    There's no way the 2017 election result can be read as an endorsement of Brexit.

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    No ifs, no buts.
    I accept the result too. That doesn't mean I think it binds me to support leaving the EU.

    Labour's manifesto also says:

    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union"

    "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option"
    But what it explicitly rejects is remaining. So I assume you reject remaining as well?
    Anti-Brexit tactical voting for Labour was the most effective weapon against a Brexiteer majority in parliament and many Remainers took advantage of it. The Labour party was merely a tool.
    Nope. You don't get to make that claim as you have no evidence for it. There was an obvious party that Remainers could have voted for - one that had been in Government up until only 2 years previously. And in Scotland they could have voted for the party that was far and away ahead in the polls. But in both cases those parties actually lost share of the vote rather than gaining it. If nothing else, 2017 was an utter rejection of Remain.
    +1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    He's highly effective, but a man of no honour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871


    When May called the election her main justification was this:

    "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course."

    There's no way the 2017 election result can be read as an endorsement of Brexit.

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    No ifs, no buts.
    I accept the result too. That doesn't mean I think it binds me to support leaving the EU.

    Labour's manifesto also says:

    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union"

    "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option"
    But what it explicitly rejects is remaining. So I assume you reject remaining as well?
    Anti-Brexit tactical voting for Labour was the most effective weapon against a Brexiteer majority in parliament and many Remainers took advantage of it. The Labour party was merely a tool.
    Nope. You don't get to make that claim as you have no evidence for it. There was an obvious party that Remainers could have voted for - one that had been in Government up until only 2 years previously. And in Scotland they could have voted for the party that was far and away ahead in the polls. But in both cases those parties actually lost share of the vote rather than gaining it. If nothing else, 2017 was an utter rejection of Remain.
    Lol. So the whole of London, having backed Remain in the referendum, was swept by Brexit fever for the General Election and then returned to being strongly Remain immediately afterwards.

    The Brexit government lost its majority, against all expectations. Your contortions are amusing but not particularly convincing.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    One of the problems that the pro-EU people have is that even in March next year continental EU may well be in recession. Extend article 50 and the recession may well be deeper.
    If the UK still keeps growing, albeit slowly, then the remain campaign would be fighting on why rejoin an economic model that is not very robust and of course the unemployed youth of the continental EU will be over here looking for work.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    He's highly effective, but a man of no honour.
    Not if he's changed his name to Damien.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    When May called the election her main justification was this:

    "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course."

    There's no way the 2017 election result can be read as an endorsement of Brexit.

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    No ifs, no buts.
    Sure, Labour will have negotiated a different deal though. They are not obliged to back a Tory one.
    But they are obliged to reject the option of remaining.
    Hence the option of a GE and a fresh Labour government led negotiation.
    And you think a Labour Government would dare go into a GE with anything other than a commitment to Leave still in its manifesto? They would be committing electoral suicide.

    Moreover they would leave themselves open to the very obvious and correct claim that the EU has already said it will not reopen negotiations.
    Either is a possibility, so they are perfectly free to vote down the deal. Thatvis one of the features of representative democracy.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591


    When May called the election her main justification was this:

    "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course."

    There's no way the 2017 election result can be read as an endorsement of Brexit.

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    No ifs, no buts.
    I accept the result too. That doesn't mean I think it binds me to support leaving the EU.

    Labour's manifesto also says:

    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union"

    "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option"
    But what it explicitly rejects is remaining. So I assume you reject remaining as well?
    Anti-Brexit tactical voting for Labour was the most effective weapon against a Brexiteer majority in parliament and many Remainers took advantage of it. The Labour party was merely a tool.
    Nope. You don't get to make that claim as you have no evidence for it. There was an obvious party that Remainers could have voted for - one that had been in Government up until only 2 years previously. And in Scotland they could have voted for the party that was far and away ahead in the polls. But in both cases those parties actually lost share of the vote rather than gaining it. If nothing else, 2017 was an utter rejection of Remain.
    Anyone who canvassed in London in 2017 - which I did extensively - will have come across many voters who said they were deserting the Tories because of Brexit. I well remember being asked to canvass some large houses overlooking a park, which I naturally approached with some apprehension as I did not expect the residents to by enamoured of Corbyn style socialism, but, much to my surprise, most of them said they were voting Labour because of Brexit. This was the first inclination I had that the Tories would not gain the landslide victory that was then expected.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    They are opting for (ii) because it leads to Remain. Thank god.

    So come clean. Motion to revoke. Big majority. We stay in the EU. If that is the ultimate outcome after much ado, I will put a Parliament poster on my bedroom wall.

    Perhaps that is where this is leading. And perhaps the 'ado' is in some way necessary. Yes, ok, perhaps so.

    But do NOT come back with another referendum. If they do that, I'm going to just ... well I'd better not say.
    I don't see how Parliament would have the guts to revoke without public input, but it is a logical thing for them to do if things go as they appear to, massive majorities against no deal and the deal, with far from easy alternatives.
    It 's easy for Parliament, if the public vote to Remain in a second referendum. If if they don't, then Parliament is stuck with something it doesn't want and will again try to frustrate.
    But that just brings us back to all the obstacles blocking the way to a second referendum. There's probably not enough time to organise one properly if Parliament decided to start tomorrow. Leave it another few weeks whilst they try to thrash out their options and then how's it supposed to happen?
    Time is a red herring imv. If Parliament decided on a referendum then the EU would allow an extension to enact.
    But what about the other problems?

    1. The EU may not be able to extend, because of the issue of the European Parliament elections. It may be unwilling to extend for the same reason. Or one or more member states may be unwilling to extend for other reasons.
    2. The only referendum variant the EU is likely to accept is Deal vs Remain, which a large segment of the population will dismiss as illegitimate. In fact, why should anybody who wants an outcome other than Remain take the vote seriously? If Parliament vetoes a result it doesn't like once, presumably it can be relied upon to do it again?
    3. Holding a second referendum in quick succession is an open invitation to everybody who doesn't get the result they want to start agitating immediately for a third one.
    4. A second referendum will be a national biting and kicking competition far worse than the first one. We really don't need that right now. And it's only being proposed so that this awful Parliament can offload its responsibility to make a decision onto the public anyway.

    If a majority can't be found for anything other than staying in the EU then they should revoke A50, and then submit themselves to judgement at a General Election. If they really can't abide the Withdrawal Agreement then this is the least damaging and most practical of the unsavoury options left.
  • Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Forgive my cynicism but all this talk of A50 being extended is very conveniently timed re Tuesday's vote. It smacks of the Tory whips to panic Brexiter deal refusniks that there will be no Brexit at all.

    If the deal is not agreed it is very likely there won’t be a Brexit.
    In the event of her deal being defeated, I think Mrs May will throw in the towel and say it is up to parliament to decide and enable, as government, whatever the majority of MPs decide. I think there would be a large majority supporting her deal or remain and could agree to her Deal subject to a Deal/Remain referendum. The EU would agree to an extension for that.
    Ah, the old EU gambit. Keep them voting until you get the right answer.
    Isn't the essence of democracy that people have the right to keep voting until they find the right answer?
    Nope. The essence of democracy is the people decide what the right answer is and then the politicians act on that.
    Nope. The essence of OUR democracy is that people decide on who will represent them, and those people (MPs) decide what is in the interests of the people.

    But this is boring isn't it? Let's just agree to disagree.
    That, however, is at the root of all our problems: representative democracy and direct democracy don't make for easy bedfellows.

    If Parliament hadn't legislated for a plebiscite that contained an option that most MPs didn't think would happen (and, I would venture to suggest, many of them had no intention of implementing even if it did) then we wouldn't be in this mess.
    The legal circle was squared by making the referendum advisory only. A fact that might become relevant soon.

    But Cameron explicitly said in millions of taxpayer-funded leaflets that the decision, whatever it was, would be implemented.
    Two and a half years later and we haven't found an acceptable or realistic way to do so. And Cameron is gone.
    He also said he would stay on as leader and immediately invoke article 50 the day after the referendum.

    He lied about a lot of things, often in the House.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    CD13 said:

    You're young and unlearned (as Bob Dylan used to sing), so I'll forgive your ignorance.

    My Brexit Pages

    Half-wracked prejudice leaped forth
    “No ECJ,” I screamed
    Lies that life is black and white
    Spoke from my skull. I dreamed
    Romantic facts of Brexiteers
    Foundationed deep, somehow
    Ah, but I was so much older then
    I’m younger than that now

    A self-ordained professor’s tongue
    Too serious to fool
    Spouted out that democracy
    Is just sovereignty of rules
    “Sovereignty,” I spoke the word
    As if a wedding vow
    Ah, but I was so much older then
    I’m younger than that now

    In a soldier’s stance, I aimed my hand
    At the bureaucrats who spun
    Fearing not that I’d become my enemy
    In the instant that I won
    My pathway led by confusion boats
    Mutiny from stern to bow
    Ah, but I was so much older then
    I’m younger than that now
    :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    I thought the numbers were way down?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    On topic, any delay will show that Brexit is a movable body. It would also cripple the confidence of many Leavers. Everything would feel much more contingent.

    In other words, I agree with OGH and it would be a very big moment.

    In would also completely neuter the project fear about civil unrest after revocation. Either the extension will happen without disorder, and the bluff will have been called, or there will be disorder, and we'll then be in a position were anything other than a subsequent revocation will be seen as caving in to the mob.
    I very much doubt that cancelling Brexit will lead to any serious outbreaks of violence.

    Quite what it will do to the public's already low opinion of politicians, and to levels of political engagement and electoral participation, is another matter.
    Protecting the image of politicians is the worst possible reason for going ahead with Brexit. The national interest comes ahead of the vanity of a few hundred people.
    Keeping voter’s faith in democracy is.
    Going ahead with this nonsense and damaging the country without a direct mandate would certainly be both undemocratic and undermine voters' faith, once they feel the consequences.
    There is both a direct mandate (2016) and an indirect mandate (2017). You just don't like it and so are thrashing around for ways to legitimise your dislike of democracy.
    Over 17 million people voted against May's Brexit in 2017. There is no mandate for it at all.
    Now William - that is naughty. Both major parties manifestos committed to leaving the EU as you well know. TM deal leaves the EU
    If you read the Labour manifesto it is very carefully worded. And, anyhow, the formal position is that we were each electing individuals to represent us, and collectively they don't seem to like either the deal or no deal.
    Then they have no claim to have a mandate.
    The Labour manifesto explicitly rules out no deal and explicitly rules out supporting the Conservative Brexit policy.
    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”
    So err avoiding no deal and not supporting the tory deal meets those criteria.
  • kle4 said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    I thought the numbers were way down?
    This was from north east France and looks as if it is going nowhere for Macron
  • IanB2 said:


    When May called the election her main justification was this:

    "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course."

    There's no way the 2017 election result can be read as an endorsement of Brexit.

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    No ifs, no buts.
    I accept the result too. That doesn't mean I think it binds me to support leaving the EU.

    Labour's manifesto also says:

    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union"

    "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option"
    But what it explicitly rejects is remaining. So I assume you reject remaining as well?
    Anti-Brexit tactical voting for Labour was the most effective weapon against a Brexiteer majority in parliament and many Remainers took advantage of it. The Labour party was merely a tool.
    Nope. You don't get to make that claim as you have no evidence for it. There was an obvious party that Remainers could have voted for - one that had been in Government up until only 2 years previously. And in Scotland they could have voted for the party that was far and away ahead in the polls. But in both cases those parties actually lost share of the vote rather than gaining it. If nothing else, 2017 was an utter rejection of Remain.
    Lol. So the whole of London, having backed Remain in the referendum, was swept by Brexit fever for the General Election and then returned to being strongly Remain immediately afterwards.

    The Brexit government lost its majority, against all expectations. Your contortions are amusing but not particularly convincing.
    We are talking about the country as a whole, not just the backward looking, inbred Remainers lurking in their holes in London.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    Sudan protests: Amnesty decries government attack on hospital

    "Rights groups accuse the Sudanese government of using excessive force against demonstrators. Sudanese security forces have used tear gas to disperse hundreds of people taking part in anti-government protests in the capital Khartoum and other parts of the country.

    Rights groups have accused Sudan's government of resorting to using excessive force against demonstrators, including some who were receiving medical treatment at a hospital in Omdurman."

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/sudan-protests-amnesty-decries-government-attack-hospital-190111151704646.html

    I was talking to a Sudanese friend, who was there for the holidays. It is a diffuse Social Media rebellion against the governing kleptocracy, fueled by inflation. We may be about to see another failed state.
    Just watching this on C4 + 1. The crowd seemed to be peaceful. Live ammo and tear gas used. They dispersed, some into the nearby hospital. The militia went in after them shooting. They were not under attack or facing any threat from what I could see. Looks bad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Alistair said:

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    So err avoiding no deal and not supporting the tory deal meets those criteria.
    You expect a man who takes money from Moscow and Tehran, a longstanding supporter of terrorist organisations, an apologist for murder on British soil by rogue regimes and who seems to think keeping to solemn commitments on spending is something that happens to other people to put the national interest first?
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Every French government becomes loathed, sooner or later. But, the process is speeding up.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician ...They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense.

    In fairness, that's not radically different from how I feel about the DfE, OFQUAL and OFSTED.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    Isn't that Corbyn's vision for the UK?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    My view is that it was dishonourable for Grieve to vote to trigger A50, and then seek to frustrate it. Clarke OTOH voted against A50, and is a principled man.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    Isn't that Corbyn's vision for the UK?
    I doubt it. Under typical socialism the health services are reserved for the few - the wealthy and well connected few.

    Although in fairness for some reason they seem not to pay many taxes either...
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    So far as I know he hasn't. It's just Amplefield Andy keeps saying he has (or rather, won't be standing again) without citing a source.
  • stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    Seems so.
  • ydoethur said:

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician ...They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense.

    In fairness, that's not radically different from how I feel about the DfE, OFQUAL and OFSTED.
    I can understand that
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    I don't believe he has been yet, but it has been reported there is a significant displeasure at his actions....
  • Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    My view is that it was dishonourable for Grieve to vote to trigger A50, and then seek to frustrate it. Clarke OTOH voted against A50, and is a principled man.
    And is voting for TM deal
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
  • You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Bring on the reurn of Nick Palmer! :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part

    I could make a pun on that, but I fear all my 'ealth and safety jokes would fall flat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    ydoethur said:

    You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part

    I could make a pun on that, but I fear all my 'ealth and safety jokes would fall flat.
    You truly are unstoppable.... :o
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part

    I could make a pun on that, but I fear all my 'ealth and safety jokes would fall flat.
    You truly are unstoppable.... :o
    Now somebody's panning my jokes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Broxtowe is a Remain constituency now.

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part

    Too much eggs and flour for safety!

    Lets bring back tarring and feathering instead.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Foxy said:

    You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part

    Too much eggs and flour for safety!

    Lets bring back tarring and feathering instead.
    Clearly the officer in question misunderstood when told they would be using batter.
  • Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    I don't believe he has been yet, but it has been reported there is a significant displeasure at his actions....
    I think Nick Boles may be in more danger of deselection.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    If Brexit is cancelled perhaps we should refuse to pay taxes. Take a leaf out of the Americans' book. No taxation without representation.

    It'd probably be more effective at bringing our political class to heel than a few far right nutters taking to the streets.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Broxtowe is a Remain constituency now.

    image
    Meaningless. You keep relying on these polls when we all know they bear no relation to reality as vote after vote has shown us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    Isn't that Corbyn's vision for the UK?
    I doubt it. Under typical socialism the health services are reserved for the few - the wealthy and well connected few.

    Although in fairness for some reason they seem not to pay many taxes either...
    In that case either Corbyn and John are not typical or are not socialists (or of course you are wrong).

    For all their faults, neither seeks wealth or privileges for themselves.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Bring on the reurn of Nick Palmer! :)
    Well of course I would support that without question. I could be one of those rare Brexiteers for Palmer.... though he might not appreciate that association :)
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    You know the Country has gone mad when the annual politicians and journalist pancake race has been cancelled because of safety fears for those taking part

    The country has not gone mad, it is snowflake politicians. There is no doubt in my mind that both sides of protesters would have let the MP's have a pancake race in peace and quiet.
    In saying this I do not condone the aggressive barracking of MPs, just that I believe they know when not to cross the line.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    JohnO said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    I don't believe he has been yet, but it has been reported there is a significant displeasure at his actions....
    I think Nick Boles may be in more danger of deselection.
    Indeed. Grieve's constituency voted Remain.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    kyf_100 said:

    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    If Brexit is cancelled perhaps we should refuse to pay taxes. Take a leaf out of the Americans' book. No taxation without representation.

    It'd probably be more effective at bringing our political class to heel than a few far right nutters taking to the streets.
    A very high proportion of Leavers are pensioners or on benefits. Perhaps we could cut these if there was a tax strike?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    Isn't that Corbyn's vision for the UK?
    I doubt it. Under typical socialism the health services are reserved for the few - the wealthy and well connected few.

    Although in fairness for some reason they seem not to pay many taxes either...
    In that case either Corbyn and John are not typical or are not socialists (or of course you are wrong).

    For all their faults, neither seeks wealth or privileges for themselves.
    Khrushchev didn't go in for wealth accumulation (although admittedly he was less rigorous than Lenin or Stalin, both of whom remained poor).

    His subordinates, on the other hand...

    (I would also add that it's difficult to know whether somebody will seek wealth or not until they're put in a position where they might be tempted by it, which is not true of those two. Chavez and Maduro are just the most unfortunate example.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Broxtowe is a Remain constituency now.

    image
    Meaningless. You keep relying on these polls when we all know they bear no relation to reality as vote after vote has shown us.
    I would agree with that. I think the correct point of comparison is with polls before the referendum, not the referendum itself.

    And the grim truth for Remainers is, on that basis they're pretty much back to where they were.

    The glimmer of hope is the direction of travel.
  • Sean_F said:


    Labour's manifesto also says:

    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union"

    "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option"

    But what it explicitly rejects is remaining. So I assume you reject remaining as well?
    Well, maybe if a softer-than-soft Brexit like that were on the table, we wouldn't be having this discussion. But it's not, and we are where we are: forced to engage with May's terrible deal, the chaos and ruin of a no-deal crash out, or doing the sensible thing, cancelling Brexit and promising never to speak of it again.
    Despite your having voted for it, in the hope that it would damage your fellow citizens
    My fellow citizens have brought this on themselves. My interest is if, in unravelling the lies and cherished national delusions, we emerge from the other side of the chaos, stronger and wiser.

    A crisis is a moment of transformation. We must adapt or die. I wonder which we'll choose?
    Decline into senescence is surely an option?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    He was refuting Boris Johnson who said it would be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    One of the problems that the pro-EU people have is that even in March next year continental EU may well be in recession. Extend article 50 and the recession may well be deeper.
    If the UK still keeps growing, albeit slowly, then the remain campaign would be fighting on why rejoin an economic model that is not very robust and of course the unemployed youth of the continental EU will be over here looking for work.

    I think it's likely - not highly likely, but nevertheless likely - that the whole world will slip into recession this year. The US yield curve has inverted, which has historically been the best predictor of a recession. The "nowcast" numbers for China are showing GDP growth has slowed to just 1% annualised growth. And in the UK, it may be that the weak retail numbers we've seen in the last few weeks show that consumers are finally beginning to live within their means.

    The weakness in China is particularly concerning for EU countries. Excessively high savings rates have meant that their economies are reliant on export demand. Slowdowns elsewhere inevitably hit growth - and much more than us, where we have the opposite problem. There is one small silver lining, and that is that governments (theoretically) have room to pursue policies to stimulate domestic demand. Sadly, Germany seems to be intent on forcing the rest of the EU to follow the opposite policies: reducing domestic demand in slowdowns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    He was refuting Boris Johnson who said it would be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea
    Fair enough - I would believe Cameron more than Boris.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Bring on the reurn of Nick Palmer! :)
    Given a choice between the two, I'd have no hesitation voting for Nick P.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    https://twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Just listened to Mark Stone on Sky interviewing 'yellow vest' protestors and if we think we have problems, Macron has as big a crisis as well.

    They will not accept his government, nor any government, do not trust any politician, and while they do not have leaders they will not change their views that they are taxed too highly and are demanding their pay is gross with no deductions to the government.

    They complain of ministers and officials salaries and benefits and that they are milking the country at the people's expense

    This is not going away anytime soon for Macron or France

    Really? Paying no taxes yet expecting all the services including schools and health - okay.
    Isn't that Corbyn's vision for the UK?
    I doubt it. Under typical socialism the health services are reserved for the few - the wealthy and well connected few.

    Although in fairness for some reason they seem not to pay many taxes either...
    In that case either Corbyn and John are not typical or are not socialists (or of course you are wrong).

    For all their faults, neither seeks wealth or privileges for themselves.
    Khrushchev didn't go in for wealth accumulation (although admittedly he was less rigorous than Lenin or Stalin, both of whom remained poor).

    His subordinates, on the other hand...

    (I would also add that it's difficult to know whether somebody will seek wealth or not until they're put in a position where they might be tempted by it, which is not true of those two. Chavez and Maduro are just the most unfortunate example.)
    The one shining example that defies my belief that all socialists are bad is Pepe Mujica in Uruguay who should be an inspiration to all world leaders about how to stay true to your values and people even when you have reached highest office.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    He was refuting Boris Johnson who said it would be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea
    Fair enough - I would believe Cameron more than Boris.
    Why? Cameron lost and Boris won, so it's Boris's idea of a second referendum that should carry more weight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    Broxtowe is a Remain constituency now.

    image
    Meaningless. You keep relying on these polls when we all know they bear no relation to reality as vote after vote has shown us.
    Not meaningless, assuming the methodology of the three polls was consistent, since the recorded change is well beyond normal margin of error.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."
    /twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    Salmond also said that the surge had taken Scotland to the brink of independence.

    Sturgeon later called for a second referendum.

    It was that I was thinking of.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    He was refuting Boris Johnson who said it would be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea
    Fair enough - I would believe Cameron more than Boris.
    Why? Cameron lost and Boris won, so it's Boris's idea of a second referendum that should carry more weight.
    Just because Boris won doesn't mean I trust him more. In any case, the people voted knowing that the vote would be final and irreversible, as the PM and leader of the remain campaign confirmed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    If people don't like them agitating for another vote from the benches of Westminster, they can vote for someone else.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    IanB2 said:


    When May called the election her main justification was this:

    "In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course."

    There's no way the 2017 election result can be read as an endorsement of Brexit.

    “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.”

    No ifs, no buts.
    I accept the result too. That doesn't mean I think it binds me to support leaving the EU.

    Labour's manifesto also says:

    "We will scrap the Conservatives’ Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union"

    "We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option"
    But what it explicitly rejects is remaining. So I assume you reject remaining as well?
    Anti-Brexit tactical voting for Labour was the most effective weapon against a Brexiteer majority in parliament and many Remainers took advantage of it. The Labour party was merely a tool.
    Nope. You don't get to make that claim as you have no evidence for it. There was an obvious party that Remainers could have voted for - one that had been in Government up until only 2 years previously. And in Scotland they could have voted for the party that was far and away ahead in the polls. But in both cases those parties actually lost share of the vote rather than gaining it. If nothing else, 2017 was an utter rejection of Remain.
    Lol. So the whole of London, having backed Remain in the referendum, was swept by Brexit fever for the General Election and then returned to being strongly Remain immediately afterwards.

    The Brexit government lost its majority, against all expectations. Your contortions are amusing but not particularly convincing.
    We are talking about the country as a whole, not just the backward looking, inbred Remainers lurking in their holes in London.
    That comment is unworthy of you Richard.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    If people don't like them agitating for another vote from the benches of Westminster, they can vote for someone else.
    Fair enough, but that's got nothing to do with them accepting or not the outcome of referendums.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    rcs1000 said:

    One of the problems that the pro-EU people have is that even in March next year continental EU may well be in recession. Extend article 50 and the recession may well be deeper.
    If the UK still keeps growing, albeit slowly, then the remain campaign would be fighting on why rejoin an economic model that is not very robust and of course the unemployed youth of the continental EU will be over here looking for work.

    I think it's likely - not highly likely, but nevertheless likely - that the whole world will slip into recession this year. The US yield curve has inverted, which has historically been the best predictor of a recession. The "nowcast" numbers for China are showing GDP growth has slowed to just 1% annualised growth. And in the UK, it may be that the weak retail numbers we've seen in the last few weeks show that consumers are finally beginning to live within their means.

    The weakness in China is particularly concerning for EU countries. Excessively high savings rates have meant that their economies are reliant on export demand. Slowdowns elsewhere inevitably hit growth - and much more than us, where we have the opposite problem. There is one small silver lining, and that is that governments (theoretically) have room to pursue policies to stimulate domestic demand. Sadly, Germany seems to be intent on forcing the rest of the EU to follow the opposite policies: reducing domestic demand in slowdowns.
    Do you agree with Martin Wolf that China is moving to growth of about 2% pa.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    If people don't like them agitating for another vote from the benches of Westminster, they can vote for someone else.
    Quite a lot of them - roughly a quarter - did.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    He was refuting Boris Johnson who said it would be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea
    Fair enough - I would believe Cameron more than Boris.
    Why? Cameron lost and Boris won, so it's Boris's idea of a second referendum that should carry more weight.
    Just because Boris won doesn't mean I trust him more. In any case, the people voted knowing that the vote would be final and irreversible, as the PM and leader of the remain campaign confirmed.
    The PM resigned the day after the vote because people rejected his word. You can't resurrect individual things he said and turn them into gospel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
  • rcs1000 said:

    That comment is unworthy of you Richard.

    Not really. We are faced with people who want to destroy democracy in this country for the sake of cleaving to a foreign power. I would suggest inbred and backward looking are positively polite terms in the circumstances.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    One of the problems that the pro-EU people have is that even in March next year continental EU may well be in recession. Extend article 50 and the recession may well be deeper.
    If the UK still keeps growing, albeit slowly, then the remain campaign would be fighting on why rejoin an economic model that is not very robust and of course the unemployed youth of the continental EU will be over here looking for work.

    I think it's likely - not highly likely, but nevertheless likely - that the whole world will slip into recession this year. The US yield curve has inverted, which has historically been the best predictor of a recession. The "nowcast" numbers for China are showing GDP growth has slowed to just 1% annualised growth. And in the UK, it may be that the weak retail numbers we've seen in the last few weeks show that consumers are finally beginning to live within their means.

    The weakness in China is particularly concerning for EU countries. Excessively high savings rates have meant that their economies are reliant on export demand. Slowdowns elsewhere inevitably hit growth - and much more than us, where we have the opposite problem. There is one small silver lining, and that is that governments (theoretically) have room to pursue policies to stimulate domestic demand. Sadly, Germany seems to be intent on forcing the rest of the EU to follow the opposite policies: reducing domestic demand in slowdowns.
    Is now a good time for a reminder of some selected Eurozone unemployment rates?

    France 9.3%
    Italy 9.7%
    Spain 15.2%
    Greece 19.0%

    At least Ireland and Portugal appear to be in better shape, but all the same...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    If people don't like them agitating for another vote from the benches of Westminster, they can vote for someone else.
    Quite a lot of them - roughly a quarter - did.
    63% of Scottish voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    We are faced with people who want to destroy democracy in this country for the sake of cleaving to a foreign power. I would suggest inbred and backward looking are positively polite terms in the circumstances.

    I wouldn't put it quite like that, but you're right that it's not ideal for Arlene Foster to have a veto over negotiations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    If people don't like them agitating for another vote from the benches of Westminster, they can vote for someone else.
    Quite a lot of them - roughly a quarter - did.
    63% of Scottish voters.
    I meant it cost the SNP roughly a quarter of their voters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
    True, but why are people being asked to vote again when they were told the first vote was final and irreversible, and not subject to a second referendum?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
    Not least because it was advisory. Asking for further advice isn't unreasonable in the circumstances of two and a half years' failed effort to come up with an acceptable way to progress the matter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
    The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    One of the problems that the pro-EU people have is that even in March next year continental EU may well be in recession. Extend article 50 and the recession may well be deeper.
    If the UK still keeps growing, albeit slowly, then the remain campaign would be fighting on why rejoin an economic model that is not very robust and of course the unemployed youth of the continental EU will be over here looking for work.

    I think it's likely - not highly likely, but nevertheless likely - that the whole world will slip into recession this year. The US yield curve has inverted, which has historically been the best predictor of a recession. The "nowcast" numbers for China are showing GDP growth has slowed to just 1% annualised growth. And in the UK, it may be that the weak retail numbers we've seen in the last few weeks show that consumers are finally beginning to live within their means.

    The weakness in China is particularly concerning for EU countries. Excessively high savings rates have meant that their economies are reliant on export demand. Slowdowns elsewhere inevitably hit growth - and much more than us, where we have the opposite problem. There is one small silver lining, and that is that governments (theoretically) have room to pursue policies to stimulate domestic demand. Sadly, Germany seems to be intent on forcing the rest of the EU to follow the opposite policies: reducing domestic demand in slowdowns.
    Do you agree with Martin Wolf that China is moving to growth of about 2% pa.
    I suspect that China will have a genuine recession in the next couple of years, and that will be followed by a more "normal" economic growth rate, of perhaps 2.5-3%. (In other words it will follow the same path that Taiwan and South Korea did, of reaching middle income status, and then seeing much slower growth.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
    The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
    TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    One of the problems that the pro-EU people have is that even in March next year continental EU may well be in recession. Extend article 50 and the recession may well be deeper.
    If the UK still keeps growing, albeit slowly, then the remain campaign would be fighting on why rejoin an economic model that is not very robust and of course the unemployed youth of the continental EU will be over here looking for work.

    I think it's likely - not highly likely, but nevertheless likely - that the whole world will slip into recession this year. The US yield curve has inverted, which has historically been the best predictor of a recession. The "nowcast" numbers for China are showing GDP growth has slowed to just 1% annualised growth. And in the UK, it may be that the weak retail numbers we've seen in the last few weeks show that consumers are finally beginning to live within their means.

    The weakness in China is particularly concerning for EU countries. Excessively high savings rates have meant that their economies are reliant on export demand. Slowdowns elsewhere inevitably hit growth - and much more than us, where we have the opposite problem. There is one small silver lining, and that is that governments (theoretically) have room to pursue policies to stimulate domestic demand. Sadly, Germany seems to be intent on forcing the rest of the EU to follow the opposite policies: reducing domestic demand in slowdowns.
    Is now a good time for a reminder of some selected Eurozone unemployment rates?

    France 9.3%
    Italy 9.7%
    Spain 15.2%
    Greece 19.0%

    At least Ireland and Portugal appear to be in better shape, but all the same...
    But here's the funny thing, if we look at employment growth between 1/1/99 and now, then Spain is top of the charts, with a big increase in the labour participation rate, and we've only done about as well as France. (We have, however, done a lot better than Greece.)

    Raw unemployment numbers, I think, can be very misleading. I find it astonishing, for example, that since the beginning of the Euro, the proportion of people in work in the EU has increased markedly, while it has declined in the US.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Damien Grieve is genuinely impressive.

    Yes, he will be one of the few to exit the Brexit chaos with reputation intact.
    Although, deselected by his constituency members.....
    Which would be a shame as I disagree with Sean F about this and do think Grieve is a man of honour. But it would be a very good example of the consequences of Burke's doctrine in action. I hope Soubry would suffer the same fate but would be happy if Ken Clark survived.
    I didn't know Dominic Grieve has been deselected which is unfortunate, I expect Anna Soubry to survive, but as far as I know Ken is standing down at the next election
    Even putting aside my stated animosity towards her, it is clear she is deeply unpopular these days in her own constituency. It is not just that she is a Remainer in a Leave constituency - that possibly wouldn't matter - but that she is so strident and offensive in her views, willing to give insult but screaming blue murder if it is returned. I would be very surprised if she survives the next election.
    I don't much care for Anna Soubry, but I think that is unfair.

    The constituency encompasses most of the University of Nottingham (the rest is in Nottingham South). There will be lots of students & university employees among her constituents.

    Given the prosperous Universities have been one of the main beneficiaries of EU largesse, they are hugely pro-EU.

    Soubry did well to hold on in Broxtowe in 2017. Any other Tory would probably have lost the seat.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited January 2019
    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
    Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    But the legislation for the referendum didn't say that.
    Not least because it was advisory. Asking for further advice isn't unreasonable in the circumstances of two and a half years' failed effort to come up with an acceptable way to progress the matter.
    However, what an awful lot of ordinary voters will think of it - regardless of what you or I or anyone reading this believes - is that a pledge was made and they've been swindled: the language used by the Government at the time, and the manifesto pledges from the Tories and Labour in 2017 for that matter, said that Brexit would happen. An attempt to reverse it on what will generally be regarded as a spurious technicality will be condemned as sophistry and rightly so. One can argue until the cows come home about whether or not Brexit is a good idea and whether or not it should be stopped: anyway, the point stands.

    And besides, the failure to make progress is the fault of all the politicians (i.e. the large majority of them) who passed this decision to the voters in the first place, and not that of the voters for selecting one of the options with which they were originally presented. I think that this whole experience has put a lot of us off referendums for life, but regardless there's no excuse for palming off the decision on the electorate for a second time because MPs are too irresolute, yellow or both to do what they're paid for and clean up their own mess.
  • Been away for a while. I see it's still all a clusterfuck. Looks like we'll end up remaining. Not my preferred option, but it isn't all about me. Still, if we do end up staying in after a referendum, or god forbid a revocation, I can sleep safely in my bed knowing that many, many political careers have been well and truly shafted and the Tories are looking down the barrel of a M134. Every cloud and all that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
    Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
    The whole point about general elections - and the reason why the losers by and large accept the result - is the outcome ISN'T final. At some point, we will kick the Tories out and put somebody else in. This is complicated at the moment by the absence of any alternative, but one will emerge in the end.

    It's why the Democrats haven't tried to overthrow Trump, but Mnangagwa overthrew Mugabe.

    Referendums are more problematic because there isn't really a way back.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
    The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
    TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
    Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
  • Macedonia parliament agrees to change country's name

    Macedonia's parliament has approved a constitutional amendment to change the country's name to the Republic of North Macedonia.

    Prime Minister Zoran Zaev narrowly secured the two-thirds majority needed in the historic vote amid a boycott by opposition nationalists.

    Protesters outside parliament denounced what they called an act of treason.

    The name change is aimed at ending a 27-year dispute with Greece, which has its own region called Macedonia.

    The Greek parliament must now give its approval under a deal signed by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Mr Zaev in June.

    That will lift Athens' veto on Macedonia's bids to join Nato and the European Union.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46846231
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
    The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
    TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
    Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
    Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
    Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
    The whole point about general elections - and the reason why the losers by and large accept the result - is the outcome ISN'T final. At some point, we will kick the Tories out and put somebody else in. This is complicated at the moment by the absence of any alternative, but one will emerge in the end.

    It's why the Democrats haven't tried to overthrow Trump, but Mnangagwa overthrew Mugabe.

    Referendums are more problematic because there isn't really a way back.
    Which is awkward if it turns out that there isn't any way forward.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
    The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
    TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
    Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
    Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
    Simply that there is still some time to run unti we get to Easter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Which is awkward if it turns out that there isn't any way forward.

    We have a way forward. Leave with no deal. Which is what is about to happen due to the intransigence of hardball Leavers and the stupidity of diehard Remainers.

    The fact it isn't a good way forward is a different problem.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Snow within a fortnight looks quite possible.

    Snow? In the UK?! In January?

    I dunno, what is the world coming to?

    More seriously, what makes you say that?
    The long range forecasts have been pointing to significant chance of a cold end to the month for some time, and the medium range are starting to suggest a temperature drop in the last week of Jan. Central Europe is already suffering unusually heavy snowfalls (parts of southern Germany and Austria are shut down) and the probability that we get hit seems to be increasing.
    TBH, although I place no faith in weather forecasts, it wouldn't surprise me. It's been a mild winter so far (except for a brief cold snap in October) but all the earlier signs were for a hard freeze at some point. We're running out of time if it is in the cards, and this is normally the coldest time of the year.
    Although it is a statistical fact that snow in London is more likely at Easter than at Christmas.
    Yes. And? That is what I would expect given our weather patterns.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was a very mild November and December in 2018.
    Simply that there is still some time to run unti we get to Easter.
    OK, fair point. It is a late one this year, isn't it - end of April.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Everybody seems to be quite cavalier about overturning the largest vote in British history.

    Grant the referendum to the people.

    Say that it's 'once in a generation' and you'll implement the decision.

    Invoke Article 50.

    Run on Manifesto promises that Brexit will happen.

    Over 80% vote for Brexit in the election.

    At the last minute try and block the referendum decision.

    Not a good look at all...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/25/eu-exit-vote-no-means-no-says-pm

    David Cameron has delivered a stark warning to the British people that a vote to leave the EU will be final and irreversible, as he stamps on suggestions that a better deal could then be negotiated and put to the electorate in a second referendum.
    David Cameron is a liar. This is hardly news.
    The head of the Remain campaign said the vote would be final and irreversible, and it would not be put to the electorate again in a second referendum.
    Salmond said the same thing.

    Losers almost always demand a rerun under such circumstances. It's one reason why referendums aren't the best of ideas.
    As Mhairi Black said, "The very presence of my SNP colleagues and I in this very parliament serves as evidence that we do respect the outcome of referendums."

    twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/1083442319863492608
    It certainly doesn't, otherwise they wouldn't be constantly agitating for another vote from those benches and elsewhere.
    Your beloved Tory Party is happy to call general elections within two years of the last one, when it thinks (wrongly as it happens) it can win. Why shouldn’t the SNP ask for another referendum? It’s been nearly five years since the last one.
    Because that general election wasn't described as once in a generation.
    Who cares what some fucking politician somewhere calls it? May said she wouldn’t go to the country. Blair said he’d serve a full term. Only a credulous idiot would believe a single word that comes out of their mouths. More fool you.
This discussion has been closed.