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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21
It is a sign of just how long PB has been around that next year’s White House Race will be the 5th that we’ve covered on the site since its foundation in March 2004. These are massive betting events something that is helped by the build-up of primaries towards the nominations of then of course the battle itself.
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Have a good morning.
Trump supporter complains shutdown is 'not hurting the people he needs to be hurting'
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/424263-trump-supporter-complains-shutdown-is-not-hurting-the-people-he
I think he'll face a bit of a struggle. But that also means the Democratic contest to be the nominee that faces Trump will be intense. A bigger field can throw up surprises (though it's worth noting there were a bare handful of contenders last time and Clinton still nearly lost to Sanders).
Be interesting to see comparable approval rating figures for other Presidents in their first term for comparison.
Either he is incredibly stupid or he thinks Labour Party supporters are incredibly stupid.
However what really interests me is I'm just not convinced the country is ready for the lack of closure. April '19 to June '20 is the battle over the extension. June '20 to December '22 is the battle over end state. The June '22 GE is a Brexit election. Vassalage will last nearly 4 years. It's become common place to describe this as the end game but Gove's intervention shows even uber leavers know that it's not.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/how-shutdown-impacting-air-safety/579616/
“I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck … So I will take the mantle. I will be the one to shut it down. I’m not going to blame you for it … I will take the mantle of shutting down, and I’m going to shut it down for border security.”
I am not seeing any clear route to re-election for the narcissistic compulsive liar.
I think the odds probably better for his ending up in jail, post election.
It’s not my impression if the state of play.
‘Coastal liberal’ is a pretty tired Republican trope - and so broad in its application to be essentially meaningless. Could be applied to anyone from Biden to Sanders.
Unless you’re suggesting they have to nominate a moderate Republican to win ?
My assumption is that Trump will stand for reelection.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/bin-hs2-now-jacob-rees-mogg-says/
Not that JRM is going to be voting for the deal (at least, I don't think he will), but interesting that he's brought up something that I've suggested could be done to placate some MPs.
Scroll down to see the comparisons at this stage of their presidency. His net approval rate at this stage is similar to Clinton, Reagan and Ford.
Which coastal liberal candidate has said that?
And from the maps it is pretty clear that apart from Appalacia and the high plains Trumps sheen has worn off. Even Americans can recognise an arsehole in the end.
A second referendum goes from 2.5 to 2.75, no second referendum shortens from 1.44 to 1.75.
For reference, I think the respective odds were 2.25 and 1.75 (or thereabouts) in early December.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/01/henry-newman-end-free-movement-stop-paying-money-to-brussels-is-the-backstop-really-so-awful.html
The Democrats need to choose someone who will appeal to swing voters in swing states. Bernie would undoubtedly beaten Trump, as a fair few of the disenfranchised would have agreed with him rather than his opponent. Biden would also have won IMO, I understand his given reasons for not running, but it *looked* like a Dem stitch-up for Hillary as a result. Sadly JB is probably too old now, his chance was in 2016. He would have made a good president.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mp-anna-soubry-nazi_uk_5c33655ce4b0733528355024
They have, for example, learned a great deal form Republican congressional tactics at the time of the last shutdown.
And they seem to have learned enough to take back several statehouses, and the House of Representatives.
Of course you could simply be reciting another cliche.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article186708092/Europapolitiker-Vorstand-der-NRW-CDU-kippt-Elmar-Brok.html
Clearly some potential candidates are considerably better than others, but I think quite a broad range of Democratic nominees could win. (And FWIW, the change away from caucuses to primaries in several states will probably improve the chances of the more established candidates like Biden.)
And they all being 'orrible to little Miss Soubry, calling her a Nazi and pulling her pigtails. Hasn't 'Nazi' been over-used by the hard left for the last sixty years? I suppose she's only six, so wouldn't know that.
If a hung jury can't decide, they send them away and pick a completely new jury. If they carry on, sack 'em all and pick a completely new set of MPs. I suspect you'd get a swift decision with that threat.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/06/theresa-may-holds-brexit-crisis-meeting-decide-whether-parliament/
He doesn't compare well.
If the Democrats put up another liberal elitist from the coasts Trump could well win the Midwest swing states, the Electoral College and the presidency again
It's fair enough to say that one option in a binary decision has problems; but if that forces you into the other option, then you have to acknowledge the problems that option has as well.
Or at least that’s how he thinks it went.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/lorries-queue-in-fake-traffic-jam-in-test-of-no-deal-brexit-border-chaos-a4031926.html
Warren, Harris, Booker, Gilibrand etc though do, much as Hillary did in 2016
If we go to No Deal we likely get PM Boris sooner or later
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1082557065850175489
Which would not be much of a change, as it's frequently been an electoral farce.
They are talking up the chaos narrative so much that it could become a self-fulfilling prophesy, causing panic buying and shortages of essentials. But hey, it generates clicks.
after months of listening to lectures from Macron the parties in the Italian government have come out to back the yellow vest movement offering the protestors their support against the french government. Di Maio for 5 star hasoffered any pracctial help he can provide.
https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/08/italia/di-maio-corteggia-i-gilet-gialli-siamo-con-voi-IGCWPTcTaiLcNWNkBybn7M/pagina.html
The real problem is no deal is politically quite attractive to too many people, so while not that many want it as the preferred option, not enough actually fear it, and others just ignore it because ignoring it always works right. The Irish border issue is practically a distraction.
Like when the EU were going to reform the CAP if only Blair threw away half the rebate.
Or when Clegg insisted an EU Army was a fantasy.
Outdoor speaker with built in cup holders for up to four pints.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/7/18172990/sony-gtk-p10-party-speaker-cup-holders-announced-ces-2019
What more can a guy ask for!
Can you imagine Trump beating Obama? Or Bill Clinton in his prime?
Oh, and Leo is the proverbial cooked bread if it’s no-deal.
(But more important. You couldn't put in a good word for me at the Irish Embassy could you?)
Also underlined for me the arrogance of Cameron and his inner circle.
Agree with Ms V, though; a drama, based on events, and with some contemporary footage, not a documentary.
We shall see.
Firstly sorry I missed both Alistair's EU thread and Mike's GE threads yesterday. Not often I say it but I agreed with much of what both wrote and interesting others are seeing what I have suggested for several months, that Theresa may get her deal through on the back of Labour abstentions.
I was sorry to see Anna Soubry jostled yesterday in the way she was but Anna is a tough old bird and handled much worse. However MPs better get ready for a lot more of such behaviour if they think they can thwart the wishes of 17.4 million voters! As I said last week, the yellow vest protests in France would be a kiddies party in comparison to what might happen here.
What many of you will not realise is that outside the M25 just how much the rest of the country is increasingly loathing London, Londoners and the London-centric attitude. If you take London out of the 2016 result, England voted heavily for Brexit and London politicians and journalists should not forget that. Similarly in Scotland while the cities swung the vote heavily in favour of remaining, many rural communities are staunch supporters of Brexit and the fishing community, while small in absolute numbers is a powerful group never the less. The British love our fish and chips more than we love London bankers (and everything which rhymes with that)!
I don't like Theresa's May's deal but as she keeps repeating it is the only deal. I hope she succeeds because if she doesn't, I doubt the UK will survive. There could well be a growing call to get rid of Ulster and of course get rid of we Scots. English nationalism could be the big winner from the current chaos caused by MPs who cannot accept they are there to do what the voters tell them to do, not what they want to do!
But none of them are Clinton.
PB posters who live outside the M25 might be another kettle of fish (haddock, not cod).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/08/german-far-right-mp-frank-magnitz-injured-in-politically-motivated-attack
It's up to all sides to look at themeselves as well, and cut this violence and intimidation out.
And I write as a Lib/Lab/LD voter who has, IIRC voted for a winning Parliamentary candidate on two occasions out of the 16 GE's since I've been old enough to vote. And I've voted every time!
Brexit is a bit difficult to understand at times.
Not made it to Hartlepool, that said - what's the mood on Middleton Road?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1082403898504237058