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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Leader of the Opposition has rated even nearly as badly as Corbyn and become Prime Minister. An analysis into the satisfaction ratings of leaders of the opposition
The Leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition is a position of great responsibility and impotence. It is traditionally the delicate art of attention grabbing, agenda setting, holding the government to account, and providing an inspiring alternative vision for government on the major issues of the day. Or if all that fails (unkind commentators might suggest that not all the holders of the office have achieved all of those objectives) at least try not to get people to remember to hate you more than the Prime Minister.
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Although Corbyn may not appreciate having his manhood questioned as well...
In the end voters may just not be willing to hand over the keys of No 10 to Corbyn as they were not to Kinnock and even if Corbyn does become PM it will almost certainly only be due to SNP support and without an overall majority
1) For many years I've encouraged Corporeal to write threads for PB
2) I was the publisher/editor of these threads
But then, Corbyn does not deserve to be PM.
I think this is why Gove and others are backing the deal.
The legacy of JRM, IDS, and the ERG might well be enable a Corbyn Premiership.
So May can’t have another vote on her deal. No deal it is...
The basic rule of thumb for Labour or the Tories is 70 target seats where they actually concentrate resources and time. The rest are paper targets that are welcome if they win them but ignored by much of the campaign machinery. Occasionally an election will see an opposition party gain more seats than the 70 they target. 1997 and 2010 are examples of this process where the main opposition party make substantial gains.
If John McDonnell is reading this thread I imagine there is a smile on his face...
Tick, tock......
https://twitter.com/timescorbyn/status/1082005893686968321?s=21
https://twitter.com/timescorbyn/status/1082010199475535874?s=21
The press turned against the Tories in the end and that was the real killer for them post 1992. Given Tony Blairs perpetual courtship and obsession with the media and its management I think the impact of the loss of the media to the Tories after 1992 is undervalued. Compare the current divisions in the Conservative Party, which are much more stark and damaging. The Conservatives are supported in office by the media at this time. It is not the voters the Tories are afraid of but the media turning on them once again over Brexit.
First, thanks to Corporeal for a superb series of threads today. I'm not sure I entirely agree with all the premise but it's a more than valid argument.
Needless to say, IF Labour had a scintilla of political nous it would dump Corbyn at once but the Conservatives never dumped Hague and took over two years to dump IDS so there can be none as blind and deaf as political parties on occasion (and before anyone chips in, Vince Cable is another good example).
To nitpick slightly, I wonder, had he lived, where John Smith's rating would have ended in 1997 - not as high as Blair's perhaps but higher than shown. Given Major's huge unpopularity, it might not have mattered.
As I've asked before, what props up the 40% Conservative vote share? Fear of or antipathy toward Corbyn - to an extent. We've seen the hypothetical polling showing supporting Brexit might do to Labour - I'd love to see some polling showing what revoking A50 would do to the Conservative share.
IF the WA falls in the Commons, despite May continuing to play Project Fear wittering on about "uncharted waters" this morning, we move toward a No Deal and we will see how unprepared Government really is and it's the lack of preparation for which May and her Ministers need to be held accountable.
https://twitter.com/PBcorporeal
Not entirely off topic, an interesting programme on R4 about the history of polling, including contributions by Sir John Curtice, has just finished, The Forum if you're looking for it on Iplayer.
Tbf I think the Independent is wrong, the rule against reintroducing a defeated motion in the same session of the HoC only applies to Bills, not to this meaningful vote IIUIC.
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1082013077493694464
Whether that's the only route for Conservative MPs is another question.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/identity-is-just-as-important-as-wealth-why-dont-economists-get-that
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/06/trump-aides-could-face-perjury-charges-mueller-investigation
There is no loss of Tory support to the LDs, the movement is from Labour to the LDs
Given neither the Deal nor EUref2 have the 326 MPs backing them needed for a majority according to Rentoul but a majority do back the Deal or No Deal that may be a way out
Polls fluctuate over time and are often wrong. Treating the latest as gospel is unbelievably naive, particularly given what happened in the last election.
I didn’t say there was a loss of support. I said there could be. Given the number of Tory Remain MPs threatening to resign the whip and Grieve openly speculating about Brexit leading to a split in the Tory Party, I think your complacency is worryingly naive.
(I thank you!)
If they think putting Corbyn into 10 Downing Street for a chance at a second referendum is a price worth paying, good riddance.
That's a keeper.
The vast majority of Labour voters though back Remain and EUref2 so the longer Corbyn refuses to back EUref2 with a Remain option the more Labour is likely to continue to lose voters to the LDs
Protection of the QBs has got silly this season too. Safety is important, but this is a contact sport. If you don't want to get hurt, go play tiddlywinks.
Chelsea Mitchell, 27, also of Willbury Road, has been charged with assisting an offender.
UKIP are a busted flush. They have gone from being a one trick pony on immigration to a one trick party obsessed with Islam.
As for QB protection, yes all the tackle but can’t end up with your weight on them is nonsense.
Pulling the old Rosie o’Donnell excuse!
The older voters who historically have a higher propensity to vote are more likely to take information on board via print media. Obviously you will always find an exception to the rule but even today the printed media is highly influential with older voters. If the Sun, the Mail, the Telegraph and Express all withdraw their mainly supportive coverage like they did in the 1990s then the Tories will be in serious trouble. It is the drip-drip effect of news over years that can damage political parties.
Social media is an interesting development but I do wonder about the longevity of it in its current form. The ability to tailor a message to the users might be useful in a referendum campaign but I am sceptical of its use in General Elections as people tend to have more focused views and are less susceptible to change their vote due to communications from social media.
The reason nfl is some popular is provides constant excitement, virtually no blow out games and combined with ability to have ad breaks inserted seamlessly.
On repeat votes, Erskine May says: “A motion or an amendment which is the same, in substance, as a question which has been decided during a session may not be brought forward again during that same session.”
Might be one for Mr Squeaker to adjudicate on. How he would love that!
The one thing I really like about the NFL is that the season isn't that long. Less is more and American sports benefit from not having multiple organisations trying to get their pound of flesh.
You also have the constant potential for some amazing run that breaks through a load of tackles or crazy impossible seeming catch. NBA and MLB are much more about repetition.