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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 projections based on swing-back to the incumbent government are irrelevant: The incumbent government isn’t standing

In recent weeks there have been a number of GE2015 projections all based on one common idea – that incumbents governments recover in the final period leading up to polling day.

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Morris_Dancer

Indeed, it's an interesting election because of that.

And if the Scots vote Yes then we'll have the potential for serious ructions, unless steps are taken to prevent them potentially having people sat on both sides of the separation negotiating table.

kle4

Good poster image pick!

RobD

You could get CCHQ for breaking the trades description act with that poster, we have a hung parliament at the moment!

Mick_Pork

" The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture"

Catchy.
Of course changing the toxic Clegg might be wiser but we'll see just how content those lib dem MPs in wobbly looking seats are soon enough.

Cyclefree

In response to Tim (FPT): I did not pay very much attention to what Cameron said, frankly. I wanted Brown out of office - I think he was a disastrous Chancellor and worse PM - and I voted accordingly.

I have no great love for Cameron and am not tremendously impressed with Milliband, though I think he is more ruthless as a politician than people give him credit for and I would not underestimate him. While I sympathised with his desire to stand up for his late father, he has never shown the same passion for things which matter to voters. It's as if Labour came alive when they got a chance to put the boot into the Mail. The rest of the time they seem half-asleep.

Neither of them show any great desire or passion to make Britain better or to make our lives better or any idea about how they might achieve anything at all. I have no idea why either of them went into politics. I did get that sense from Major and he showed it again today. Not that it made him a very successful PM - but that was probably as much to do with the "bastards" and the times as anything else.

kle4

The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture

Personally I'm not averse to such an approach, but it doesn't appear to be paying dividends at the moment - no matter how much they highlight their differences they barely seem to recover in the polls. Fear of letting in one of the other two seems to be an easier plank to hang their campaign on.

malcolmg

kle4 said:

The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture

Personally I'm not averse to such an approach, but it doesn't appear to be paying dividends at the moment - no matter how much they highlight their differences they barely seem to recover in the polls. Fear of letting in one of the other two seems to be an easier plank to hang their campaign on.

Also fact that they would sell their granny never mind drop principles to get whiff of power does not do much re people trusting them to actually stick to any manifesto promises.

Mick_Pork

FPT:

kle4 said:

Is that all he is hoping to achieve though? Labour's record with illiberal tendancies in the past decade (not saying the Tories are pioneers of liberalism mind you) would make me cautious about that, though since he stands such a good chance of becoming PM, I must just hope my caution proves unfounded.

The Government's proposals in response to Leveson (which little Ed supports) is most definitely not what Leveson recommended. It was a further compromise deal which was hastily cobbled together at the last minute with a quite bizarre focus on the new Royal charter aspect . I know the thinking behind that but the Royals simply do not put the fear of god into the press anymore so it was misplaced and also not particularly conducive to the charter being seen as fully independent and well away from the hands of the establishment as well as the press barons.

The carrot of the arbitration service, the arms length for a totally new PCC independent of the press barons and the code of conduct for Editors set by the press and approved by an independent figure are the main improvements on the old discredited PCC. But just like for Ireland, where the press barons are quite happy to operate under a Leveson style system, it will depend on the press getting on board for it. Desmond signed up to the Irish system after all and he despised the PCC here even though it was a complete joke.

They may not sign up to it. In which case the press will then be putting all their faith in the press barons not making any glaring f***ups for the foreseeable future. Not particularly wise given their track record to date, but it's absolutely their choice if that's what they want to do.

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

kle4 said:

The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture

Personally I'm not averse to such an approach, but it doesn't appear to be paying dividends at the moment - no matter how much they highlight their differences they barely seem to recover in the polls. Fear of letting in one of the other two seems to be an easier plank to hang their campaign on.

Also fact that they would sell their granny never mind drop principles to get whiff of power does not do much re people trusting them to actually stick to any manifesto promises.

And you're happy to support Salmond who lifted his kilt for a flash of Donald Trumps golf clubs?

foxinsoxuk

2005 was clearly an exception, and unusual in being the first GE after the first gulf war.

This govt is rightly or wrongly seen as a Tory one by many.

There may well be swingback, possibly it is happening already, I see it more a question of how much, and who loses out. Single term governments are much rarer than swingback!

kle4

malcolmg said:

kle4 said:

The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture

Personally I'm not averse to such an approach, but it doesn't appear to be paying dividends at the moment - no matter how much they highlight their differences they barely seem to recover in the polls. Fear of letting in one of the other two seems to be an easier plank to hang their campaign on.

Also fact that they would sell their granny never mind drop principles to get whiff of power does not do much re people trusting them to actually stick to any manifesto promises.

People saying things like that makes me more inclined to vote LD, not less - there seems to be some pretense that only the LDs have ever traded their principles for power or gone against their manifesto promises - often without even a fig leaf of an excuse as the LDs have had, being junior in a coalition (and yes, I said it was a fig leaf of an excuse, so please no-one suggest I'm saying that makes reversing positions totally fine all the time).

If there is one thing I detest about much of politics and its tribal nature above all else, it is the attribution of behavours endemic in politics as somehow being partisanly political behaviours.

It's rank hypocrisy of the worst kind and makes me want to vote LD just so as not to benefit the big two by helping them achieve something they have wanted for so long by removing the LDs as barriers to their own majorities. The LDs can destroy themselves just fine without pretending that its members are someone inherently morally worse than the other parties. Them getting erased in Scotland for instance is surely down to the strategic direction they chose to make, not because they are unprinciple bastards.

kle4

Mick_Pork said:

FPT:

kle4 said:

Is that all he is hoping to achieve though? Labour's record with illiberal tendancies in the past decade (not saying the Tories are pioneers of liberalism mind you) would make me cautious about that, though since he stands such a good chance of becoming PM, I must just hope my caution proves unfounded.

The Government's proposals in response to Leveson (which little Ed supports) is most definitely not what Leveson recommended. It was a further compromise deal which was hastily cobbled together at the last minute with a quite bizarre focus on the new Royal charter aspect . I know the thinking behind that but the Royals simply do not put the fear of god into the press anymore so it was misplaced and also not particularly conducive to the charter being seen as fully independent and well away from the hands of the establishment as well as the press barons.

The carrot of the arbitration service, the arms length for a totally new PCC independent of the press barons and the code of conduct for Editors set by the press and approved by an independent figure are the main improvements on the old discredited PCC. But just like for Ireland, where the press barons are quite happy to operate under a Leveson style system, it will depend on the press getting on board for it. Desmond signed up to the Irish system after all and he despised the PCC here even though it was a complete joke.

They may not sign up to it. In which case the press will then be putting all their faith in the press barons not making any glaring f***ups for the foreseeable future. Not particularly wise given their track record to date, but it's absolutely their choice if that's what they want to do.

Admittedly my caution with regards Labour has very little to do with current policies on the press or whatever, and much more with the sense that they were increasingly and arrogantly authoritarian as I was becoming politically aware, and Miliband was in all that up to his neck, being a part of the Labour machine throughout all of it.

HYUFD

Interesting comments by Sir John Major on the one-off windfall tax, as the last Tory leader to win an election it seems he is more in touch with public feeling at the moment than the Coalition given the huge rise in prices and the large profits made by energy firms

HYUFD

Just a week after New Jersey legalised it, the ACT becomes the first Australian state or territory to legalise gay marriage, however the Abbott government has promised to oppose it in the courts
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-22/ommonwealth-to-launch-challenge-over-act-same-sex-marriage-laws/5037674

Mick_Pork

kle4 said:

Admittedly my caution with regards Labour has very little to do with current policies on the press or whatever, and much more with the sense that they were increasingly and arrogantly authoritarian as I was becoming politically aware, and Miliband was in all that up to his neck, being a part of the Labour machine throughout all of it.

Labour's authoritarian streak has hardly vanished but then NannyCam with his snoopers charter, internet filters, TPIMs etc, seems content for the tories to go down the same path. Nor are the lib dems noticeably different under Clegg with a whole series of civil liberties blunders over the summer that Clegg chose to shove the blame on to the hapless Jeremy Browne by booting him out of the cabinet. Maybe Clegg should have been paying a bit of attention to exactly what policies he was signing up to? Just like with NHS reforms, the bedroom tax, welfare reform and now free schools.

Scott_P

This is why Labour are being 'tough' on scroungers and immigrants. They have so completely lost the arguments

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/in-areas-of-weakness-labour-can-only-complain-that-the-government-isnt-tough-enough/

HYUFD

On topic, surely the 'time for change' argument can almost be said to apply most strongly to a Tory majority. We have not had one for 16 years, the LDs have now been given their chance in government, something the public now seem to regret and Labour only lost office 3 years ago. Indeed, by 2015 the Tory Party will have been out of power without a majority for longer than any other major Western political party, after the French Socialists won the presidency last year for the first time since 1988 and the Canadian Tories won an overall majority in 2011 for the first time also since 1988!

kle4

Mick_Pork said:

kle4 said:

Admittedly my caution with regards Labour has very little to do with current policies on the press or whatever, and much more with the sense that they were increasingly and arrogantly authoritarian as I was becoming politically aware, and Miliband was in all that up to his neck, being a part of the Labour machine throughout all of it.

Labour's authoritarian streak has hardly vanished but then NannyCam with his snoopers charter, internet filters, TPIMs etc, seems content for the tories to go down the same path. Nor are the lib dems noticeably different under Clegg with a whole series of civil liberties blunders over the summer that Clegg chose to shove the blame on to the hapless Jeremy Browne by booting him out of the cabinet. Maybe Clegg should have been paying a bit of attention to exactly what policies he was signing up to? Just like with NHS reforms, the bedroom tax, welfare reform and now free schools.

The Coalition has been very disappointing on this certainly. As it is an issue that greatly impacts my vote, it will make a choice in 2015 pretty hard even though my vote will not in any way affect the outcome in my neck of the tory woods.

kle4

HYUFD said:

the French Socialists won the presidency last year for the first time since 1995 and the Canadian Tories won an overall majority in 2011 for the first time since 1988!

A good omen for the Tories perhaps?

I am a little disappointed at how easily Labour may end up getting in due to the lower bar for them to get a majority, as it will prevent them shaking off the bad habits I tend to believe crop up when one has been in power for a long period, but with the Tory internal troubles as they are and many years of [necessary] pain from the Tories and what seems a likely significantly (if not necessarily fatal) drop in LD support, I think the 'time for a change' argument will still work for Labour.

HYUFD

kle4 It all depends on the UKIP vote, if the Tories can squeeze enough of the UKIP vote and add a few moderate LDs they get to 40%, thus Miliband's 35% strategy will not be enough of a 'time for change' vote to see him win and it will be the Tories who get their chance at a majority, albeit probably even more narrowly than Major won in 1992

Philip_Thompson

I'm sorry but I think the header title to this thread is wildly inaccurate and wouldn't stand in any European nation where Coalitions are more standard. Of course the goverment WILL be standing to be re-elected at the next election.

The government in the form of the Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary etc and the rest of their party seeking re-election preferably in the form of an absolute majority.
The government in the form of the Deputy PM and the rest of the junior governmental party trying to seek re-election to preferably hold the balance of power again.

Going into this year's German Elections would you OGH or any serious commentator anywhere have contemplated suggesting that Merkel and the CDU/CSU were not going into the election as the government? Just because they were in coalition with the FDU? Sure the major party may have increased its votes and seats and the junior party were wiped out so they weren't treated the same at the election but everyone knew the CDU and Merkel to be the party of government. Just as the Conservatives and Cameron are the primary party of government today.

Mick_Pork

Incumbency being split between two parties will obviously complicate matters.
It's quite possible that both, only one or neither party will benefit from incumbency.

Actual results from large scale local elections every May, rather than just polling, would seem to be the wisest way to determine which is most likely.

HYUFD

Tim Indeed, that is why Cameron needs to forget about 'decontamination', the liberal left will never vote for him and are now united behind Miliband. To win he needs to win back the skilled working class and lower middle class voters Major won in 1992 who probably voted for Blair, but Clegg rather than Cameron in 2010, as well as those who voted for Maggie and Major but are now voting UKIP!

kle4

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm sorry but I think the header title to this thread is wildly inaccurate and wouldn't stand in any European nation where Coalitions are more standard. Of course the goverment WILL be standing to be re-elected at the next election.

The government in the form of the Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary etc and the rest of their party seeking re-election preferably in the form of an absolute majority.
The government in the form of the Deputy PM and the rest of the junior governmental party trying to seek re-election to preferably hold the balance of power again.

Going into this year's German Elections would you OGH or any serious commentator anywhere have contemplated suggesting that Merkel and the CDU/CSU were not going into the election as the government? Just because they were in coalition with the FDU? Sure the major party may have increased its votes and seats and the junior party were wiped out so they weren't treated the same at the election but everyone knew the CDU and Merkel to be the party of government. Just as the Conservatives and Cameron are the primary party of government today.

Many reactions from the public in this country suggest people have no idea how political coalitions are meant to work, even if they say parties should work together.

Scott_P

@GPW_Portland: I followed Sir John Major around the globe for three years and never got a tale. today he was a story machine. good to see old pals in Lobby

kle4

HYUFD said:

Tim Indeed, that is why Cameron needs to forget about 'decontamination', the liberal left will never vote for him and are now united behind Miliband. To win he needs to win back the skilled working class and lower middle class voters Major won in 1992 who probably voted for Blair, but Clegg rather than Cameron in 2010, as well as those who voted for Maggie and Major but are now voting UKIP!

Surely the problem there though is that having spent so long attempting to 'detoxify' (which is a bafflingly continued problem given that Kellner article the other day showed little personal or policy reason for such an impact in the north of england for example. They aren't even my party and it seems odd how intense the tory hatred still is - that hatred exists is a given, but as we all know the anti-tory feeling is a lot worse than the anti-labour feeling), Cameron cannot now credibly win anyone back who he alienated in that effort - UKipers put off by that won't believe he is sincere, and they are the largest group who he could try to siphon off support realistically.

So Cameron's only real hope is UKIP or Labour implode. The latter seems unlikely with their core support bolstered from the low ebb in 2010 and the LD exodus who is likely to stick around in some respect, as well as Miliband being too cautious to cause an implosion, and the former could happen, but at present seems a distant possibility.

Mick_Pork

Scott_P said:

@GPW_Portland: I followed Sir John Major around the globe for three years and never got a tale. today he was a story machine. good to see old pals in Lobby

Maybe he should have been following Edwina instead?

*chortle*

kle4

Speaking of Major, is it just me or has he barely aged in the last 15 years?

Quincel

kle4 said:

Speaking of Major, is it just me or has he barely aged in the last 15 years?

It's true, he seems to look better than he did when he was in office.

AndyJS

Quincel said:

kle4 said:

Speaking of Major, is it just me or has he barely aged in the last 15 years?

It's true, he seems to look better than he did when he was in office.

He's swapped the big glasses for smaller ones.

kle4

Wow, Pope Francis really is changing things!

Vatican launches its first official cricket club

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24628472

FluffyThoughts

On-topic:

Clueless. Discuss....

dr_spyn

And Father Jack Hacket has bowled a maiden over...

Stark_Dawning

kle4 said:

Speaking of Major, is it just me or has he barely aged in the last 15 years?

I suppose that's what having a clear political conscience does for you. Contrast the leathery Blair who these days looks an old, old man.

HYUFD

Tim Evidence? I have not seen one poll where Miliband leads Cameron with KIPPERS

kle4

Stark_Dawning said:

kle4 said:

Speaking of Major, is it just me or has he barely aged in the last 15 years?

I suppose that's what having a clear political conscience does for you. Contrast the leathery Blair who these days looks an old, old man.

That may just be a touch too much sun of course, if we're being charitable. It's hard work making that much money.

HYUFD

Philip Thompson But Merkel fought the 2009 election with the FDP as her preferred Coalition partner on a joint ticket, the present Coalition was forced on Cameron

HYUFD

kle4 What do you think Lynton Crosby was brought back for?

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 What do you think Lynton Crosby was brought back for?

Point taken, but Cameron's image is already solidified with the public consciousness, and that ain't changing no matter who they bring in. It's the same reason the Tories have tried so hard, against evidence, to paint Miliband as weak, because if they established that firmly enough soon enough, it wouldn't matter what he actually did from then on, as a significant enough group of people will have been dissuaded from supporting him at least.

HYUFD

On Major, I think he has not really aged because he never really enjoyed being PM, though he did his best, look at the relief he had when enjoying the cricket after his 1997 defeat. On the other hand Thatcher and Blair all aged considerably after leaving office as they were both megalomaniac, power mad narcissists who had to be dragged kicking and screaming from Number 10 by their fingernails. Brown looked old when in office anyway so it did not really affect him anyway, although of course he was just as much a megalomaniac! Major is more like a Callaghan or Home, a gentleman PM enjoying his retirement!

Easterross

I am sure I am not the only person who disagrees with the premis of the thread. As far as the punter on the street is concerned, we have a Tory government backed up by the LibDems. Labour has spent 3 years talking about the Tory led government.

Swingback will surely happen. In most cases it will benefit a Tory candidate. In a few cases it will benefit a LibDem candidate. Where it will be interesting is in the Tory v LibDem marginal.

Meanwhile in Scotland Labour's domination by UNITE union is going to explode once more in its face with the Grangemouth debacle. Will be interesting to see what, if any, effect it has on Thursday's by-election in the adjacent Dunfermline seat.

HYUFD

kle4 Indeed, and your Miliband point is a good one, a Mail poll had Cameron comfortably winning a 'presidential style' contest against Miliband, so the Tories will run a negative campaign against him as they did with Kinnock in 1987 and 1992 while pushing up the agenda immigration and Europe and welfare to win back the Kippers

HYUFD

Tim Maybe, but when given a forced choice KIPPERS almost always prefer Cameron

RodCrosby

Two great threads that I'd normally get stuck into (this and Richard Nabavi's). But sadly my father passed away suddenly today, aged 85...

FluffyThoughts

HYUFD said:

Interesting comments by Sir John Major on the one-off windfall tax, as the last Tory leader to win an election it seems he is more in touch with public feeling at the moment than the Coalition given the huge rise in prices and the large profits made by energy firms

:if-only-he-was-as-well-padded: *

* Of course he had Sir Patrick Mayhew to shield him from the Bogtotters "mortar". Oirish and dem infoighting diddlies...

Pulpstar

My condolences, Rod

HYUFD

Rasmussen 2014 House mid-terms poll

•Democrats 43% (45%) (42%) (40%)
•Republicans 36% (38%) (38%) (37%)

fitalass

Rod, can I also add my condolences at your sad loss.

RodCrosby said:

Two great threads that I'd normally get stuck into (this and Richard Nabavi's). But sadly my father passed away suddenly today, aged 85...

HYUFD

Rasmussen Virginia 2013 Governor poll

•Terry McAuliffe (D) 50% {44%} [45%] (44%)
•Ken Cuccinelli (R) 33% {38%} [38%] (41%)
•Robert Sarvis (L) 8% {6%}
•Some other candidate 3% {2%}
•Undecided 5% {11%} [10%] (12%)

SouthamObserver

Major the Marxist. Who'd have thunk it?

HYUFD

Condolences on your loss too Rod

HYUFD

SO He would only be a Marxist to the Tea Party and certain KIPPERS on conservative home

foxinsoxuk

sorry to hear it. Even at a ripe old age, it is still a shock.

Nothing here that cannot wait.

best wishes

RodCrosby said:

Two great threads that I'd normally get stuck into (this and Richard Nabavi's). But sadly my father passed away suddenly today, aged 85...

Neil

@Rod

Sorry to hear that, all the best to you and your family.

HYUFD

FT Indeed, the 1993 mortar bomb was a narrow escape, Patrick Mayhew was MP for my home town and went to my old school, indeed I remember as a cub scout attending a church service where he attended with special branch in tow when he was NI Secretary

JackW

@RodCrosby

Desperately sad news for you Rod. My sincere condolences.

DavidL

RodCrosby said:

Two great threads that I'd normally get stuck into (this and Richard Nabavi's). But sadly my father passed away suddenly today, aged 85...

Very sorry to hear that Rod.

FluffyThoughts

tim said:

Miliband now leads Cameron among UKIP voters.

Oh, gosh! Wee-Timmy...!

You post around twenty for all of one of mine (pitiful as they are) at OGH's gaff. Again, and emphasised (for the simple-minded): Correlation =/= Causation!!!

What next? People positing that Opinion == Facts...?

SMukesh

@Rod

Sorry to hear of your loss.

HYUFD

Tim It will have to be one part of the campaign, not virtually the whole campaign as it was for Howard in 2005. As for Cameron, he has led Miliband in a majority of polls since 2010, indeed the Mail poll showed Cameron would beat Miliband 41%-33%, with 15% of Labour voters switching to Cameron
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2384172/Voters-kick-sand-Ed-Milibands-face-Poll-reveals-Cameron-ahead.html

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SO He would only be a Marxist to the Tea Party and certain KIPPERS on conservative home

Anyone accusing Ed of moving to the far left can only conclude the last Tory leader to win a majority has joined him there.

SouthamObserver

RodCrosby said:

Two great threads that I'd normally get stuck into (this and Richard Nabavi's). But sadly my father passed away suddenly today, aged 85...

Condolences Rod. It's a horrible thing to happen.

Theuniondivvie

Unsurprisingly GOP getting roasted over the shutdown, level of public pissed-offedness slightly less unsurprising.

'Shutdown Polling Terrible for GOP, as Party Pivots to Obamacare

Those unloved men and women who make up the Republican "establishment" warned against shutting down the government or using the continuing resolution to defund Obamacare. It wasn't that they were falling madly in love with the socialist takeover of our health care; it was because they expected the rollout of healthcare.gov to turn into a goat rodeo, and they feared a shutdown would distract from this.hey were right. Among the disaster points for Republicans in the latest tranche of the ABC/WaPo poll:By a 24-point margin (53–29), voters blame Republicans, not the president, for the shutdown.'

http://tinyurl.com/p99o9ox

JosiasJessop

My condolences, Rod.

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

On Major, I think he has not really aged because he never really enjoyed being PM, though he did his best, look at the relief he had when enjoying the cricket after his 1997 defeat. On the other hand Thatcher and Blair all aged considerably after leaving office as they were both megalomaniac, power mad narcissists who had to be dragged kicking and screaming from Number 10 by their fingernails. Brown looked old when in office anyway so it did not really affect him anyway, although of course he was just as much a megalomaniac! Major is more like a Callaghan or Home, a gentleman PM enjoying his retirement!

UKIP supporters split 5:2 in favour of the Conservatives, given a forced choice. It's fanciful to suppose the prefer Labour.

fitalass

Telegraph - Labour leader warns of fight with newspapers

surbiton

Easterross said:

I am sure I am not the only person who disagrees with the premis of the thread. As far as the punter on the street is concerned, we have a Tory government backed up by the LibDems. Labour has spent 3 years talking about the Tory led government.

Swingback will surely happen. In most cases it will benefit a Tory candidate. In a few cases it will benefit a LibDem candidate. Where it will be interesting is in the Tory v LibDem marginal.

Meanwhile in Scotland Labour's domination by UNITE union is going to explode once more in its face with the Grangemouth debacle. Will be interesting to see what, if any, effect it has on Thursday's by-election in the adjacent Dunfermline seat.

Oh dear! So many wishful thoughts in just one post.

@SeanT. I flew back in Qantas this morning from Dubai. Best business class I have travelled in [ better than even Singapore which just shaves Emirates ].

Bloody hell ! Even got pajamas to sleep in

dr_spyn

Rod, I'm sorry to read of your loss.

Sean_F

tim said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 It all depends on the UKIP vote, if the Tories can squeeze enough of the UKIP vote and add a few moderate LDs they get to 40%, thus Miliband's 35% strategy will not be enough of a 'time for change' vote to see him win and it will be the Tories who get their chance at a majority, albeit probably even more narrowly than Major won in 1992

Miliband now leads Cameron among UKIP voters.
All that inauthentic posturing by Dave managed to fail in detoxing the Tory brand but managed to alienate those he needed to win back.

Of course we hate Cameron. It doesn't mean we prefer Labour.

Your party's problem is that despite your assertion that everyone hates Cameron and the Conservatives, you're only slightly better than level-pegging. What does that say about Labour?

Sunil_Prasannan

@Rod_Crosby

Sorry to hear of your loss

FluffyThoughts

surbiton said:

Oh dear! So many wishful thoughts in just one post.

@SeanT. I flew back in Qantas this morning from Dubai. Best business class I have travelled in [ better than even Singapore which just shaves Emirates ].

Bloody hell ! Even got pajamas to sleep in

Slept-in or Slept-with? The nuances of the English language....

surbiton

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

On Major, I think he has not really aged because he never really enjoyed being PM, though he did his best, look at the relief he had when enjoying the cricket after his 1997 defeat. On the other hand Thatcher and Blair all aged considerably after leaving office as they were both megalomaniac, power mad narcissists who had to be dragged kicking and screaming from Number 10 by their fingernails. Brown looked old when in office anyway so it did not really affect him anyway, although of course he was just as much a megalomaniac! Major is more like a Callaghan or Home, a gentleman PM enjoying his retirement!

UKIP supporters split 5:2 in favour of the Conservatives, given a forced choice. It's fanciful to suppose the prefer Labour.

Well said, SeanF. Also, many of the Labour "deserters" are WWC from the North so how much harm they do to Labour remains to be seen. Obviously will have an impact in one or two seats but not very many, I suspect..

dr_spyn

This does not portray Labour in a flattering light.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-24628148

WWI commemoration isn't going to be easy if that is the attitude.

Sunil_Prasannan

Labour = Dortmund
Coalition = Arsenal

surbiton

FluffyThoughts said:

surbiton said:

Oh dear! So many wishful thoughts in just one post.

@SeanT. I flew back in Qantas this morning from Dubai. Best business class I have travelled in [ better than even Singapore which just shaves Emirates ].

Bloody hell ! Even got pajamas to sleep in

Slept-in or Slept-with? The nuances of the English language....

Your choice of the preposition is the correct one !

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Tim Indeed, that is why Cameron needs to forget about 'decontamination', the liberal left will never vote for him and are now united behind Miliband. To win he needs to win back the skilled working class and lower middle class voters Major won in 1992 who probably voted for Blair, but Clegg rather than Cameron in 2010, as well as those who voted for Maggie and Major but are now voting UKIP!

"Decontamination" was always a stupid strategy. It was based on the belief that gay rights, overseas aid, and the environment were the hot-button issues among the voters.

Sean_F

RodCrosby said:

Two great threads that I'd normally get stuck into (this and Richard Nabavi's). But sadly my father passed away suddenly today, aged 85...

I'm very sorry to hear that.

Floater

http://order-order.com/2013/10/22/torylabour-health-tensions-boil-over-in-pch/

SMukesh

So only one person went home after the `Go Home` vans campaign and that too after reading about the campaign in the Guardian.

Perhaps if the government had taken an ad out in the Guardian,they might have doubled that figure.

Sean_F

tim said:

Sean_F said:

tim said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 It all depends on the UKIP vote, if the Tories can squeeze enough of the UKIP vote and add a few moderate LDs they get to 40%, thus Miliband's 35% strategy will not be enough of a 'time for change' vote to see him win and it will be the Tories who get their chance at a majority, albeit probably even more narrowly than Major won in 1992

Miliband now leads Cameron among UKIP voters.
All that inauthentic posturing by Dave managed to fail in detoxing the Tory brand but managed to alienate those he needed to win back.

Of course we hate Cameron. It doesn't mean we prefer Labour.

Your party's problem is that despite your assertion that everyone hates Cameron and the Conservatives, you're only slightly better than level-pegging. What does that say about Labour?

It says that Labour suffered a crushing 29% defeat in 2010 and are back in the game.
It took the Tories a decade after 1997 and their brand is still dog shite.

Well, I suppose that makes Labour's brand horse shite then. And probably worse than that, by May 2015. It doesn't seem likely that more people will vote Labour than Conservative at that point.

HYUFD

SeanF Agreed

Roger

Interesting John Major coming out of hibernation to kick Cameron in the nuts. That he was one of the worst Prime Ministers in any of our of our lifetimes raises the question could Cameron be worse?.

Anyway with that and the 'Go Home Vans' the Tories are looking really grubby this evening

(Sorry to hear about your father Rod)

HYUFD

SO Indeed, although Major proposes tackling it in a slightly different way

HYUFD

Tim yes sorry you are right on the date

dr_spyn

Mrs Wilkinson, Labour cabinet member for communities, flatly rejected the offer.Her reply referred to two recent problems affecting the council: last week's government withdrawal of a £169m grant towards its proposed waste incinerator, and a warning that the government could intervene if its children's services did not improve after a series of critical Ofsted reports.

"World War I is indeed an important anniversary which we will mark," wrote Mrs Wilkinson. "However, as you should appreciate, more than most, the problem that I and my cabinet colleagues have inherited in the field of children's services, together with the massive cut in government grant and the kick in the teeth which the council has just received from its MPs in the form of the withdrawal of PFI (private finance initiative) credits mean that we have a rather full diary at the moment"

"However, if you have any concrete proposals that can repair the damage that has been done to our finances I would be pleased to hear them."

Is that really a sensible reply given the circumstances? It might have been best unsent. It bears all the hallmarks of a jobsworth with a grudge.

HYUFD

TUD Indeed, see the Rasmussen polls I posted earlier, the GOP are likely to get trounced in the Virginia governor race next month and are now trailing in Senate and House polls for the 2014 mid-terms. Indeed, if Christie wins big in his re-election bid next month he will come to be seen as the only thing stopping a 2016 Hillary landslide on an LBJ scale!

FrankBooth

Roger said:

Interesting John Major coming out of hibernation to kick Cameron in the nuts. That he was one of the worst Prime Ministers in any of our of our lifetimes raises the question could Cameron be worse?.

Anyway with that and the 'Go Home Vans' the Tories are looking really grubby this evening

(Sorry to hear about your father Rod)

Was he really that bad? And I think it's pretty obvious Cameron is worse.

Sean_F

tim said:

HYUFD said:

Tim It will have to be one part of the campaign, not virtually the whole campaign as it was for Howard in 2005. As for Cameron, he has led Miliband in a majority of polls since 2010, indeed the Mail poll showed Cameron would beat Miliband 41%-33%, with 15% of Labour voters switching to Cameron
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2384172/Voters-kick-sand-Ed-Milibands-face-Poll-reveals-Cameron-ahead.html

1.Cameron has led in 3 of the last 18 MORI polls, the gold standard leader ratings, Major never ceded a lead to Kinnock.
2.We don't have presidential elections but
3.Even if we did nobody takes Best President or Best PM polling seriously.
Why do you think US pollsters never use them, favorability, approval etc give a best picture PM polls do not.
Ask the Callaghan Govt of 1979-1983

Well, such polls certainly don't come up with the message you're trying to spin.

MORI gives Cameron -14%, Milliband -13%, which is neither here nor there. Everyone else puts Cameron ahead of Milliband.

Scott_P

The Fink tomorrow should be essential reading for all political punters

A poll by ComRes asked people what they thought of the promise to freeze energy prices and found support was six per cent lower when they mentioned Ed Miliband.

@TimMontgomerie: Why has Labour's lead DECLINED since Ed Miliband announced his energy policy? @DannyTheFink: http://t.co/y4QmOqiAPt

foxinsoxuk

I was born less than 50 years ago and can think of half a dozen worse MPs than John Major.

His problem was an ungovernable party, not anything more.

FrankBooth said:

Roger said:

Interesting John Major coming out of hibernation to kick Cameron in the nuts. That he was one of the worst Prime Ministers in any of our of our lifetimes raises the question could Cameron be worse?.

Anyway with that and the 'Go Home Vans' the Tories are looking really grubby this evening

(Sorry to hear about your father Rod)

Was he really that bad? And I think it's pretty obvious Cameron is worse.

Sunil_Prasannan

Roger said:

Interesting John Major coming out of hibernation to kick Cameron in the nuts. That he was one of the worst Prime Ministers in any of our of our lifetimes raises the question could Cameron be worse?.

At least Major managed to win a majority, albeit against Kinnock!

HYUFD

Tim Head to head US presidential polls are normally right, although of course you are also right we do not have a presidential system. But Callaghan is the only example in recent decades of the favoured PM losing the general election, and had he called an election in 1978 he would probably have won

Sean F Agree on decontamination

SouthamObserver

SMukesh said:

So only one person went home after the `Go Home` vans campaign and that too after reading about the campaign in the Guardian.

Perhaps if the government had taken an ad out in the Guardian,they might have doubled that figure.

Those vans did everything they were supposed to do.

HYUFD

Roger/Frank Booth Major left a golden economic legacy and a balanced budget which Labour squandered and as a grammar school boy himself knew something about social mobility, he was not a great PM, but he did a reasonable job overall, including only going to war against Iraq in 1990 with a UN coalition. In any case, I don't think he is really undermining Cameron, the two get on and Major backed him for leader, he just has some understanding of the plight of the elderly spinster faced with huge gas prices this winter

Pulpstar

tim said:

Jesus Christ.

STAR: 'Maddie' found in Ireland #tomor'rowspaperstodayistwo #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/GiTV4Mro8r

Is every missing girl named Madeleine ?

FrankBooth

Scott_P said:

The Fink tomorrow should be essential reading for all political punters

A poll by ComRes asked people what they thought of the promise to freeze energy prices and found support was six per cent lower when they mentioned Ed Miliband.

@TimMontgomerie: Why has Labour's lead DECLINED since Ed Miliband announced his energy policy? @DannyTheFink: http://t.co/y4QmOqiAPt

Perhaps he should get Sir John to make the policy announcements?

old_labour

@RodCrosby

Sorry to hear about the loss of your dad.

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

Interesting comments by Sir John Major on the one-off windfall tax, as the last Tory leader to win an election it seems he is more in touch with public feeling at the moment than the Coalition given the huge rise in prices and the large profits made by energy firms

Every time I see this moaning about large profits by energy firms I get the urge to point out that the profit taken by the energy firms averages 5% of turnover.

That is the same amount as the government takes in VAT. But the government then takes an additional 6% of gas bills and 11% of electricity bills in green levies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24238708

So that is a total of 11% and 17% respectively that the government takes from our gas and electricity bills. It is the government who are 'overcharging'. Perhaps they should look at cutting that part of the bill before they start attacking the much smaller proportion that makes up profits.

foxinsoxuk

Apologies. Should have read half a dozen worse PMs:

Brown, Blair, Thatcher, Wilson (2nd time around), Heath,

Ok, so 5 rather than 6...

tim said:

@foxinsox

"I was born less than 50 years ago and can think of half a dozen worse MPs than John Major."

Jeremy Hunt
David Laws
Chloe Smith
Margaret Moran
David Tredinnick
IDS

Dead easy.

dr_spyn

What will this do to Labour's best on the NHS in Wales?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24627423

Wasn't NHS in Wales a shinning beacon of hope to those on the wrong side of the Severn?