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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Since the end of October only one survey from a pollster other than YouGov has recorded a CON lead
There’s a new poll reported in the Times today from YouGov which has a Conservative lead albeit a reduced one of 2%.
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(Oh, I think I might have broken my resolution not to claim firsts!)
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/19/18140799/amazon-marketplace-scams-seller-court-appeal-reinstatement
And a possible second career for TSE ?
Quite surprised.
Although shouldn't just write the worst one off completely, from a Conservative perspective the worst one was near enough right come election time.
Given Labour need a lead of at least 5 to 6% over the Tories for a majority and 2%+ even to become largest party if Corbyn does become PM he will therefore almost certainly be able to do it propped up by the SNP
Though whether their new assumptions hold water in what is a very different political situation is questionable.
I don’t think we can conclude much more form the polling other than that the two main parties are fairly close. And FWIW, I can’t discern any trends in the figures Mike has posted.
It seems likely that there would be the potential for poll movement before any election campaign depending on how events go.
The latest Survation poll in the table above would still see the Tories largest party on 288 seats to 285 for Labour according to Electoral Calculus.
However as there would be 38 SNP MPs Corbyn would be able to become PM of a minority government as Labour + SNP would be on 323 seats while the Tories plus DUP would be on only 298 seats. Though Labour would also likely need the support of the 17 LD MPs predicted or the 3 Plaid MPs to ensure they could get anything through given 326 seats are needed for a majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=39&LAB=40&LIB=8&UKIP=3&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
However he turned out to be weak and oversaw the humiliation in Iran and a sluggish economy while it took Reagan to restore the American optimism and strength in the world it had not had since JFK was assassinated
So having a poll lead in not necessarily meaningful.
It’s difficult to put much trust in any poll these days given their poor recent track record. Personally, I think it will take a miracle for the Tories to win the next election, particularly if May stays. She is an abysmal campaigner, has no domestic policies and is the author of a Brexit deal which satisfies no one. A new leader has a chance but he or she will also need time to establish themselves which seems unlikely.
Labour have similar problems. They are electorally toxic to too many people especially with Corbyn and McDonnell in their current positions.
Britain needs a change of both leaders but politics being based upon patronage rather than ability, its difficult to see that happening. May will probably go when her Brexit deal is rejected but who knows when Corbyn will go. He seems safe as long as he has McCluskey’s backing and there are no signs of that changing.
Presumably with Sinn Fein abstentionism 323 would be enough, we do have a very friendly Green MP in the chamber if numbers are incredibly tight. Although I would expect some polling movement given events to play out with Brexit before any changes that could occur in the election campaign.
Back in the 1900s even Einstein was not getting good grades and certainly not a first.
"Einstein later recalled that after graduating in 1900 the “coercion” of being forced to take the final exams “had such a detrimental effect that… I found the consideration of any scientific problem distasteful to me for an entire year”. He achieved an overall mark of 4.91 out of 6, which is rather marginal. Academic positions were found for all members of the graduating class in the physics department of the ETH with the exception of Einstein, who seems to have been written off as virtually unemployable, “a pariah, discounted and little loved”, as he later said."
Source: https://qbnets.wordpress.com/2015/03/09/the-truth-about-einsteins-bad-grades/
I wouldnt read too much into polls though, as the circumstances that lead to an early GE would be likely to shatter the assumptions on which they are based.
In terms of offering the SNP something, it almost isn't much of an offer on my part because I believe we should do it regardless but give the power to call an independence referendum to the Scottish Parliament.
They would still have to work with the electoral commision and in some fashion with the British government to make it work and make it fair to all sides but it seems right that if an area wants to split off from Britain the decision on a referendum to do so is held by the representatives of that area. Presumably they would be stopped from just holding constant referendum to get the 'right answer' by voters annoyance at being asked constantly. They would have to judge how quickly they can ask again and pay any electoral consequences.
After the experience of Brexit I may be tempted to suggest a two referendum process with one confirming the negotiated deal to leave the UK at the end of the process but that is just my general thoughts on it rather than a specific requirement I'd suggest Labour make.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_conspiracy_theory
It wasn't just Watergate, but also post Vietnam that discredited the Washington elite. Carter was was seen almost as a "Mr Smith goes to Washington" populist figure. After Vietnam, US military intervention in Vietnam, or in other places such as Angola, was anathema. I cannot see a counterfactual with a different outcome in Iran being possible.
The hostage crisis was humiliating, but also the oil crisis did him in. Carter was a good man though, and still is. His work since leaving office does him credit.
Whilst I can imagine the SNP are very unpopular in some parts of England in terms of policies and things they have said the DUP can be pretty off putting to a wide range of people as well.
I also cannot see the polls moving much at all as long as Corbyn leads Labour as most Tory voters fear and despise him while leftwingers love him and as long as Brexit is delivered
Bankers still hung over from their #insert name of posh champagne that I've never heard of#.
As a matter of interest who is this shining star in the conservative party that is going to take the party to new election heights
Fiddling whilst Rome burns?
The only way May goes is if her Deal passed and the DUP VONC the government and Corbyn becomes PM after a general election or we go to No Deal and May loses a confidence vote from her own MPs next December. In both cases Boris Johnson would almost certainly succeed May as Tory leader
So for the first time I'll be looking at the Greens. Leadership of political parties is important and I'm a big fan of Caroline Lucas
Who I want as party leader is irrelevant. MPs will provide members with a shortlist of 2. I just hope there is Vote this time which was not the case when May became leader.
If they can't break the 40% barrier now, when will they? We know that it is historically possible, as the Tory Blair did so and I expect Kinnock / Smith also?
TMay polls higher than other tories. When was the last time a party was in power and a member who was not PM had the highest poll rating? Did Brown poll above PM Blair? Any Tory above PM Thatcher or even PM Major?
Possibly D Milliband over PM Brown?
Do you honestly believe that?
May is also more popular with Tory voters as a whole
1922 can amend as they wish.
The party will struggle to find enough supporters to canvass and campaign as it is. Be even worse with May as leader.
Your comments above and reference to ConHome says it all really. Conhome are the UKIP fan club and they do not like TM Brexit as they want to walk away with no deal no matter the consequences.
They do not not represent my wife and I who are both voting members of the party and a majority view among our conservative mps and voters who reject their extreme crash out Brexit. Even Tim Montgomerie rejects their view and supports TM deal
From.experience I know plenty of Tory volunteers out and campaigning we are not all No Deal Kipper diehards like you
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/jan/01/lady-hale-supreme-court-president-judges-diversity
The only likely alternative to May is a No Dealer anyway and most Tory MPs will not risk that
And it exists in other parties too. Look at those like Nick Palmer who can be devotedly loyal to both Blair and Corbyn.
Still if that’s your only substantive comment, go knock yourself out.
If May breaks those commitments and starts to act like an Imperial Dictator acting like her own MPs are in your words "irrelevant" then that could swiftly change. Her own cabinet could quickly turn on her and that would easily swing 1/6 needed to remove her majority.
Anyone who confuses ConHome with the Party is a joke.
Also in fairness to many of the Labour MPs they went along with it because so many of their colleagues were going through with it and because they thought he was unelectable. Given that there wouldn't be the momentum there now and Corbyn isn't the electoral liability they thought he was it would be far fewer than three quarters.
The Greens are a great choice, I've always liked Lucas.
You apparently are the one who is confused between those who comment on the site and party members.
Kinnock got 30.8% in 92, about 9% less than Corbyn. Blair went over it twice and under it once, I think the one over was very close to Corbyn's result. I think basically only Blair beat Corbyn's score (without going back decades) and only once with a bit to spare and once by a little.
In terms of vote share Corbyn actually stands out as a Labour leader as a very good performer electorally.
Attlee got over 40% in 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955, Gaitskill got over 40% in 1959 and Wilson got over 40% in 1964 and 1966 and 1970.
However, my conservative credentials are pro business, pro the union and pro immigration where it satisfies the economic needs of the country. I reject the ultras brexiteers just as much as I reject the hard left of Corbyn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_Kingdom_general_election
Edit: Spotted my mistake, I just looked quickly and the first percentage it shows are last election scores, 30.8% is the previous election.
Anyway my mistake aside basically aside from Blair in 2/3 victories and one of those is very close to Corbyn's result no Labour leader has a better vote share than Corbyn without going back to 1970 (if your list is comprehensive)
A bit like being on here and not doing my income tax return!