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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just because Corbyn’s LAB almost closed a massive poll gap at GE17 is no guarantee that it’ll happen again
The extraordinary performance at the last election of Labour continues to dominate thinking about the next one with an assumption in many quarters that because the party was able to come from a huge poll deficit to within 2.5% then the same will happen again.
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My suspicion is that Labour will need some kind of Brexit offer, probably a second vote of some kind.
1) The Tories have a more popular and plausible policy offering, which was not the case last time, or:
2) The policies Labour put forward are demonstrably dishonest and uncosted - which admittedly was the case last time but was no help to the Tories as their manifesto was scarcely better.
At the moment I would make Labour slight favourites to be the largest party. The Tories have exhausted themselves bickering about Brexit, they are deeply divided and they will have been in power a decade without ever having a really solid majority. They look very vulnerable to me.
Hammersmith stabbing leads to 39 attempted murder arrests
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-46719897
Was the victim Julius Caesar or was he found in a colony of Brazilian electricians or something?
As OGH says, they won't make that mistake again.
As for JC being a tacit pro-Brexiteer, that is likely to have different effects in different constituencies, and the overall net effect may be minimal. Labour would lose a lot of votes (and seats) if it came off the fence about Brexit (in either direction). Hopefully, there won't be a GE before Brexit, so this may be irrelevant anyway.
Jezza doesn't need a 2017 surge as he starts in a different place. Remember when the debate on here was whether May's majority would be 100 or 200?
No Labour government, least of all a minority one, would pass a Brexit like May's or indeed much of a Brexit at all, even with Jezza at its head.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-46718393
Hopefully the Tories won’t shoot themselves in the foot with electorally toxic issues like fox hunting and last election’s social care policy. Last election however, the biggest mistake was surely giving Labour a free ride on their policies many of which were economically disastrous. Tuition fees were undoubtedly popular but McDonnell reneged on that as soon as the election was over. A much less indolent Chancellor than Hammond and a much better campaigner than May would have spent plenty of time exposing those ridiculous policies. Even Abbott’s gaffe on policing was only picked up by the press rather than the Tories.
Besides, the really superb landslide was this one:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Iraqi_presidential_referendum
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/
I imagine the government is calling a Cobra meeting urgently
Things still remain very unclear. The future is difficult to see. Not unlike when the Dark Side veiled the foresight of the Jedi Council.
We must be wary. And stay away from sand.
I’m sure we could commandeer a couple of fishing boats.
But they have decided that the rules shouldn’t apply to them
Why should that kind of attitude to the law be welcome in our country?
None of the three English parties are impressing, and that doesn’t look set to change much in the next twelve months. Given an election in that timeframe, the only way the Tory manifesto will be significantly better will be that there won’t be much in it.
Out behind that, we’ll likely have three new leaders, and a whole new post Brexit politics (if Brexit is somehow averted, there will have been an election within that twelve months).
And none of the three parties seem much prepared for that, either.
Some would fall for it hook, line and sinker.
Have a good morning.
.........Get in there fast while stocks last
It would be a "drain" on our resources. Send for BoatyMcboatface
Sadly Dr Foxys Irish ancestors are rather too distant.
Both Corbyn and Labour's manifesto will have pluses and minuses compared with 2017. Corbyn is now such a familiar figure that his exciting newcomer gloss has worn off even for younger voters (even though many still like him); conversely people are used to the idea that he might be a plausible PM, which many saw as outlandish in 2017. He's not dropped any real clangers for a long time (people didn't feel that possibly muttering "stupid woman" to himself after TM's panto performance was that unreasonable), which is why we still read stuff about what he said in a leftie magazine in 1974 etc. That's why the Tories are road-testing the idea that he's maybe not wicked, merely a frontman for the wicked - doesn't seem to be resonating, though.
The manifesto was unicorn-rich and appealed for that reason in a landscape dominated by "life is grim, we promise little" messages. I agree it will get closer scrutiny next time. That said, it'll be hard to top the hatchet jobs attempted by the Mail and Sun last time - 12 pages each IIRC. I think Labour can afford to be fairly cautious with just a few highlighted issues - lefties will trust the leadership to deliver a fair amount of good stuff, and everyone else really just wants a serious alternative to the exhausted Tory shambles. The complete disappearance of funding problems is useful too - the idea that you can clear your debts by attracting lots of paying members has the charm of novelty in Britain, where increasingly all parties were funded by a few big donors.
We're open to anyone who is able to make the difficult journey (predominantly youngish and male) but also middle class enough to the have financial clout to pay a large sum of money to people traffickers.in Calais.
The new demographic of the Labour Party.
No doubt the nurses will have a good selection of spirits ready for the bells. Possibly water with the water.
My son, who lives and works in Copenhagen, has acquired an Irish passport. Just in case, those UK queues at European airports get too long.
A true patriot. Mr Roger would be proud.
It's not just a case of what a government (Labour or Conservative) want to do; it's what they can agree with the EU that matters. And I fail to see any reason why Labour's intellectual giants would be any better at this than the Conservative's perspicacious leviathans.
"Haven't you noticed that it is the Tory government that is landing them here?"
I think their cunning plan needs a bit more work.
Mr L,
Best wishes.
For as long as Labour members continue to prioritise Jeremy Corbyn being their leader over Labour winning general elections the Tories basically have free rein to do as they will in government, to the extent of not actually being a single functioning political entity.
I haven't seen any polling comparing him to Lord Goderich. It would be fascinating to look at the criteria. Do you have a link?
Have a good morning.
At least this boneheaded nonsense is getting the scrutiny it deserves.
Mildly amused I actually have more assets (according to the BBC News, the firm in question possessed the princely sum of £66) than the contract-winning 'business'.
Corbyn is good on the stump. He surprised in 2017. The Tories had a hard time pinning a charge incompetence on someone clearly better at it than they were. The last couple of years have done nothing for the Tories claims of managerial competence or pragmatism.
Could be a close run thing.
A couple of wee reminders about the 2017 GE. You all laughed at me for years when I predicted the resurrection of the Scottish Tories and here we are going into our 4th year as the second party in Scottish politics. If I had money to burn, I would have backed Ruth Davidson in 2016 to be the next First Minister of Scotland.
A couple of things on Brexit. 1. if Brexit is prevented by the remoaners, the yellow jacket protests in France will seem but a picnic compared to what is likely to be unleashed on this side of the channel. 2. By getting your 2nd referendum to prevent Brexit you will have condemned the UK because there will no justification for denying the current majority will of the Scottish Parliament to hold another and that will almost certainly be a Yes because many Scots including unionists will simply see Westminster as duplicitous and like the Long Parliament there to serve its own ends and not the expressed will of 17.4 million voters.
Incidentally I never hear any remoaners on here claim the Welsh assembly referendum was illegal, invalid or untrustworthy. It was honoured even though barely 1/4 of the people of Wales voted for it.
As to the next UK General Election, it all comes down to Brexit and Corbyn. But what if we have already left the EU and Corbyn is but a bad smell on the past of the Labour party? A very different scene. If however Brexit is frustrated and Corbyn remains, goodness knows what will happen but one thing is for sure, it will be the dirtiest election ever fought in the UK and a great many reputations will be trashed for good.
I do enjoy the podcasts but Alastair Meeks dear chap, the days of Blair have gone and when I read your predictions and political opinions I know almost always the exact opposite wll occur!
I am glad to see Nick Palmer is still around. Nick I regularly get dodgy emails when you have been hacked!! There must be something about the air in Broxtowe. With every passing day Anna Soubry gets more like you Nick in political philosophy.
Happy New Year everyone and DavidL get well soon. We have a stunningly mild day in Easter Ross (though somewhat ironically North Cadboll is actually part of the pre-1890 Cromartyshire)
Welcome back anyway!
Broxtowe, which voted Leave, has been strangely blessed (or not) with Eurozealot MPs for 44 years - 8 years of Anna, 13 years of me, and 23 years of Jim Lester, an amiable Ken Clarke acolyte. None of us have ever disguised it, any more than I tried to conceal my commnist past from voters during the years when I was regularly beating the national swing. Broxtowe folk are very tolerant! Converesely, of course, it shows the limits of influence that MPs and former MPs have on their voters - little sign of their turning into red europhiles, sadly.