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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A few general election constituency betting markets for your perusal

Ladbrokes have put up what I think are the first constituency markets for the next general election, I’ve always looked fondly at these markets, especially after the 2015 general election where there was a lot of profit in backing the Tories in the English marginals, and the SNP everywhere in Scotland.

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TheScreamingEagles

E pluribus unum.

I gave you all a ten minute heads up about the new thread.

IanB2

Second like Leave

AnneJGP

TheScreamingEagles said:

E pluribus unum.

I gave you all a ten minute heads up about the new thread.

I always check that there's no new thread before making a post and time after time the new thread goes up after I look & before my comment goes in on the old one. I really don't know how you manage such timing!

Good afternoon, everybody.

IanB2

Ladbrokes given up on the boundary changes..

Chingford - will go Labour
Richmond - will go LibDem
Hastings - will stay Tory
Derby - Tory

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

E pluribus unum.

I gave you all a ten minute heads up about the new thread.

I thought we agreed you'd notify me beforehand?

Barnesian

IanB2 said:

Ladbrokes given up on the boundary changes..

Chingford - will go Labour
Richmond - will go LibDem
Hastings - will stay Tory
Derby - Tory

I've just got a boosted 7/10 on Richmond Park going LibDem. Excellent value for the reasons TSE gives. But I might have to wait until 2022 until I collect.

I hear on the grapevine that Zac intends to stand again which must be excellent news for the LibDems.

FrancisUrquhart

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

AmpfieldAndy

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

IanB2

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

until they consider their woeful record in office.

kinabalu

AnneJGP said:

I always check that there's no new thread before making a post and time after time the new thread goes up after I look & before my comment goes in on the old one. I really don't know how you manage such timing!

And I replied to it too.

That's 3 minutes I will never get back.

Richard_Tyndall

IanB2 said:

Second like Leave

You rewriting history again Ian?

AmpfieldAndy

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

until they consider their woeful record in office.

Possibly but May gone will be gone and with it her abysmal record, a quick read of the economically illiterate drivel in the Labour Manifesto will also help hersuccessor.

David_Evershed

IanB2 said:

Ladbrokes given up on the boundary changes..

Chingford - will go Labour
Richmond - will go LibDem
Hastings - will stay Tory
Derby - Tory

So are Ladbrokes assuming that the boundary changes will not take place?

IanB2

David_Evershed said:

IanB2 said:

Ladbrokes given up on the boundary changes..

Chingford - will go Labour
Richmond - will go LibDem
Hastings - will stay Tory
Derby - Tory

So are Ladbrokes assuming that the boundary changes will not take place?

Yes. Or, more correctly, giving the punters the chance to make that assumption, with their money back if they are wrong (assuming the seat boundaries actually change)

IanB2

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:

Second like Leave

You rewriting history again Ian?

I thought this was a prediction site? Hence "betting"

Sunil_Prasannan

FPT

Dura_Ace said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Dura_Ace said:

HYUFD said:

Well to be fair in the pecking order of Western military and diplomatic power while the US leads we are just behind, helped by Commonwealth ties, though France under Macron is catching up fast

"just behind"

US Navy escorts:230
RN escorts: 17

Geography means we aren't that well integrated with the preeminent commonwealth military (Australia) so we rarely exercise with them.

I would have thought the pre-eminent Commonwealth military is India?

The Indian military is enormous, very professional (more so than the British in certain areas) and is rapidly modernising but their entire force posture is geared toward a war with Pakistan hence they don't do power projection.

India has one STOBAR aircraft carrier in service, and has another currently fitting out, to replace Viraat (the ex-HMS Hermes of Falklands fame) which has just decomissioned. Australia has two helicopter carriers, but no fixed wing carrier aircraft at the moment.

OldKingCole

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

Daft idea. Almost as bad as academies.

Stark_Dawning

Yes, I think Duncan Smith's brand of ultra-eurosceptic nastiness has lost Chingford and Woodford Green for the Tories, probably for ever. I can imagine them being stuffed in Uxbridge and South Ruislip too, simply because, these days, Boris is just a massive pain in the arse.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

Daft idea. Almost as bad as academies.

Academies are a very good idea.

Academy chains, on the other hand, are the worst idea since Abraham Lincoln said 'oh, I'm sick of kicking around the house tonight, let's go take in a show.'

OldKingCole

Stark_Dawning said:

Yes, I think Duncan Smith's brand of ultra-eurosceptic nastiness has lost Chingford and Woodford Green for the Tories, probably for ever. I can imagine them being stuffed in Uxbridge and South Ruislip too, simply because, these days, Boris is just a massive pain in the arse.

Popcorn time when the GE comes if that's the case. Even better than Portillo. Or (for me) when Bob Spink lost Castle Point the first time.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

It's a really good job that there's nobody like that round here.

ThomasNashe

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

until they consider their woeful record in office.

Possibly but May gone will be gone and with it her abysmal record, a quick read of the economically illiterate drivel in the Labour Manifesto will also help hersuccessor.

May would have been gone ages ago if there'd been a half-adequate successor in the wings. The reason she's still there is the absence of anyone better.

The_Taxman

Stark_Dawning said:

Yes, I think Duncan Smith's brand of ultra-eurosceptic nastiness has lost Chingford and Woodford Green for the Tories, probably for ever. I can imagine them being stuffed in Uxbridge and South Ruislip too, simply because, these days, Boris is just a massive pain in the arse.

I would imagine that tactical voting will be massively increased in quite a few hard Brexiteer MPs seats. I think IDS, Johnson and Rees-Mogg could all be ousted if the electorate in the relevant seats are courted in the right way by the strongest candidate in second place.

It is not just Europe though for some Brexiteer politicians but their involvement in implementing fundamentally flawed policies i.e. IDS and Universal Credit, which is being dogmatically rolled out and defended despite its inherent injustice.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

Like a left wing Toby Young

AnneJGP

kinabalu said:

AnneJGP said:

I always check that there's no new thread before making a post and time after time the new thread goes up after I look & before my comment goes in on the old one. I really don't know how you manage such timing!

And I replied to it too.

That's 3 minutes I will never get back.

I did read your reply - thank you - but didn't want to acknowledge it there in case you'd left the thread and wouldn't see the acknowledgement!

Foxy

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

Whether May leads in the next GE very much depends on the time and events that lead to its arrival.

AnneJGP

I reckon a GE which would elect a new set of MPs would be a tremendously good idea, like discharging a jury which couldn't reach a verdict. But all we'd end up with would be mostly the same faces we have at the moment, allowing for a few seat changes.

Vinny

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

Theuniondivvie

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

The_Taxman

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

The Tories got the most votes in over 20 years in 2017! People focus on the parliamentary arithmetic but May for all her obvious flaws led the Tories to their biggest increase in the vote for decades, she got an increase over Cameron's benchmark figures. 2017 could well be the best performance the Tories have for quite some time! Governments usually tend to repel voters due to the unpopular decisions they are usually forced to make.

I don't think changing the leader will automatically result in higher support for the Tories. Basically the Tories will have squandered their time in office with the focus on Europe and the likely detrimental impact of a No Deal Brexit.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

Almost as bad as elitist snobs wot wear red shoes

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Divvie, not sure taking the word of ex-spouses is wise. Hard to find a group less collectively prone to subjective dislike.

Worth noting Hannibal remained faithful to his wife (Imilcea, I think...) even when overseas for decades, unlike Caesar who divorced his for political expediency.

Quincel

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I really don't think it's fair, or good for us as a country', to describe areas which voted 54:46 (or really anything up to 60:40) for something as 'solid' or other similar adjectives. While 54:46 isn't a tossup, if you got a representative sample of 10 people in a room in Hastings you'd have a coin toss between having a 6:4 split or 5:5. Most of the country isn't 'Brexitland' or 'Remainia', it's almost evenly split on this and many other issues.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Quincel, indeed. I was wryly amused when the BBC had a segment in Leeds and described it as voting Remain. Technically true, but I think the percentage was 50.2% Remain. It was about as divided as could be.

Omnium

Quincel said:

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I really don't think it's fair, or good for us as a country', to describe areas which voted 54:46 (or really anything up to 60:40) for something as 'solid' or other similar adjectives. While 54:46 isn't a tossup, if you got a representative sample of 10 people in a room in Hastings you'd have a coin toss between having a 6:4 split or 5:5. Most of the country isn't 'Brexitland' or 'Remainia', it's almost evenly split on this and many other issues.

Yep

Amber Rudd may also be 'well liked in Hastings' - in fact my guess is that that's a more prevalent view than 'loathed' given she's their MP.

Quincel

The_Taxman said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

The Tories got the most votes in over 20 years in 2017! People focus on the parliamentary arithmetic but May for all her obvious flaws led the Tories to their biggest increase in the vote for decades, she got an increase over Cameron's benchmark figures. 2017 could well be the best performance the Tories have for quite some time! Governments usually tend to repel voters due to the unpopular decisions they are usually forced to make.

I don't think changing the leader will automatically result in higher support for the Tories. Basically the Tories will have squandered their time in office with the focus on Europe and the likely detrimental impact of a No Deal Brexit.

2017 was the biggest 2-party vote share for God knows how long. A record number of voters felt they had no other options, that isn't a vote of confidence in her. You win big in FPTP by being by far the largest party by votes, and she wasn't.

A better measure of electoral performance is swing.

oldpolitics

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

In fairness it's going to be a bonkers school where children run the place, work is optional, discipline is frowned upon, and 'creative thinking' is valued rather than, you know, learning stuff. Didn't the left try one of these before? Summerhill? And to a lesser extent Pierrepont.

Beverley_C

Vinny said:

... I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that I cannot wait to dump her.

There you go - fixed it for you

Beverley_C

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

Almost as bad as elitist snobs wot wear red shoes

Louboutins? Very classy ...

Foxy

Quincel said:

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I really don't think it's fair, or good for us as a country', to describe areas which voted 54:46 (or really anything up to 60:40) for something as 'solid' or other similar adjectives. While 54:46 isn't a tossup, if you got a representative sample of 10 people in a room in Hastings you'd have a coin toss between having a 6:4 split or 5:5. Most of the country isn't 'Brexitland' or 'Remainia', it's almost evenly split on this and many other issues.

While that is certainly true, the Tory vote in the constituency is likely to be strongly Leave. I suspect it unlikely that Amber would convert many Lab/Green/LD voters there to the party of Brexit.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

kinabalu

AnneJGP said:

I did read your reply - thank you - but didn't want to acknowledge it there in case you'd left the thread and wouldn't see the acknowledgement!

:-)

Well it was about Brexit so we can leave it.

Sense a serious loss of appetite for that around the table.

Purely temporary, no doubt.

malcolmg

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, not sure taking the word of ex-spouses is wise. Hard to find a group less collectively prone to subjective dislike.

Worth noting Hannibal remained faithful to his wife (Imilcea, I think...) even when overseas for decades, unlike Caesar who divorced his for political expediency.

You just know she is being nice to him rather than telling the full truth

Sunil_Prasannan

Quincel said:

The_Taxman said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

The Tories got the most votes in over 20 years in 2017! People focus on the parliamentary arithmetic but May for all her obvious flaws led the Tories to their biggest increase in the vote for decades, she got an increase over Cameron's benchmark figures. 2017 could well be the best performance the Tories have for quite some time! Governments usually tend to repel voters due to the unpopular decisions they are usually forced to make.

I don't think changing the leader will automatically result in higher support for the Tories. Basically the Tories will have squandered their time in office with the focus on Europe and the likely detrimental impact of a No Deal Brexit.

2017 was the biggest 2-party vote share for God knows how long. A record number of voters felt they had no other options, that isn't a vote of confidence in her. You win big in FPTP by being by far the largest party by votes, and she wasn't.

A better measure of electoral performance is swing.

Corbyn won only four more seats than Gordon did in 2010. His tally of 262 was fifty-five behind the Tories.

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Surely that can barely compare with the legendary commitments of his ex-wife's alleged friends!? Paragons to a man/woman as we've all heard said precisely no times.

AnneJGP

kinabalu said:

AnneJGP said:

I did read your reply - thank you - but didn't want to acknowledge it there in case you'd left the thread and wouldn't see the acknowledgement!

:-)

Well it was about Brexit so we can leave it.

Sense a serious loss of appetite for that around the table.

Purely temporary, no doubt.

Toms

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

Almost as bad as elitist snobs wot wear red shoes

Louboutins? Very classy ...

For elegant and expensive instance:

https://tinyurl.com/y9stvhrk

Edit; Fila trainers do for me.

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

notme2

oldpolitics said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

In fairness it's going to be a bonkers school where children run the place, work is optional, discipline is frowned upon, and 'creative thinking' is valued rather than, you know, learning stuff. Didn't the left try one of these before? Summerhill? And to a lesser extent Pierrepont.

This kind of thing can work when you have very motivated staff and very motivated supportive parents. It wont work in a bog standard situation.

TheScreamingEagles

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

I think Sir John Redwood is a massive bell end and a hypocrite.

Perhaps you can refer me to all your posts criticising the SNP?

notme2

Omnium said:

Quincel said:

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I really don't think it's fair, or good for us as a country', to describe areas which voted 54:46 (or really anything up to 60:40) for something as 'solid' or other similar adjectives. While 54:46 isn't a tossup, if you got a representative sample of 10 people in a room in Hastings you'd have a coin toss between having a 6:4 split or 5:5. Most of the country isn't 'Brexitland' or 'Remainia', it's almost evenly split on this and many other issues.

Yep

Amber Rudd may also be 'well liked in Hastings' - in fact my guess is that that's a more prevalent view than 'loathed' given she's their MP.

That's one of those things isnt it "nobody goes out there any more, its always full and the queue takes ages".

williamglenn

Quincel said:

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I really don't think it's fair, or good for us as a country', to describe areas which voted 54:46 (or really anything up to 60:40) for something as 'solid' or other similar adjectives. While 54:46 isn't a tossup, if you got a representative sample of 10 people in a room in Hastings you'd have a coin toss between having a 6:4 split or 5:5. Most of the country isn't 'Brexitland' or 'Remainia', it's almost evenly split on this and many other issues.

It's also a mistake to assume that the strength of feeling is reflected in the balance of opinion. In a constituency that voted 60:40 Leave, the Remainers could be more resolute and determined, and the Leavers more apathetic, than in a place that voted 60:40 Remain.

Philip_Thompson

David_Evershed said:

IanB2 said:

Ladbrokes given up on the boundary changes..

Chingford - will go Labour
Richmond - will go LibDem
Hastings - will stay Tory
Derby - Tory

So are Ladbrokes assuming that the boundary changes will not take place?

Or alternative aren't the punters giving Ladbrokes a risk-free, interest-free loan of their money if the boundary changes do take place?

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

I think Sir John Redwood is a massive bell end and a hypocrite.

Perhaps you can refer me to all your posts criticising the SNP?

I am not a member of the SNP , neither do I promote them other than for their support of independence. If you look back a week or so you will see me criticising their tax policies.

Beverley_C

Toms said:

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

Almost as bad as elitist snobs wot wear red shoes

Louboutins? Very classy ...

For elegant and expensive instance:

https://tinyurl.com/y9stvhrk

Try wearing them. Strictly bar-to-car...

Toms said:

Edit; Fila trainers do for me.

Your shoes are made from pastry???? Wow

Oh! Fila, not filo...

OllyT

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I would hardly call 54% in a referendum two and a half years ago "solid".

FrancisUrquhart

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

Beverley_C

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

I think Sir John Redwood is a massive bell end and a hypocrite.

Perhaps you can refer me to all your posts criticising the SNP?

I am not a member of the SNP , neither do I promote them other than for their support of independence. If you look back a week or so you will see me criticising their tax policies.

I thought you WERE the SNP and that you merely posted under a nom de plume Mr Salmond!

I'm shocked

You mean your name really is Malcolm and not Alex???

dixiedean

Foxy said:

Quincel said:

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I really don't think it's fair, or good for us as a country', to describe areas which voted 54:46 (or really anything up to 60:40) for something as 'solid' or other similar adjectives. While 54:46 isn't a tossup, if you got a representative sample of 10 people in a room in Hastings you'd have a coin toss between having a 6:4 split or 5:5. Most of the country isn't 'Brexitland' or 'Remainia', it's almost evenly split on this and many other issues.

While that is certainly true, the Tory vote in the constituency is likely to be strongly Leave. I suspect it unlikely that Amber would convert many Lab/Green/LD voters there to the party of Brexit.

And, for betting purposes, important to remember there was a pro -Corbyn Independent at the GE, who polled more votes than her majority. Ironically, costing Labour the seat.

williamglenn

OllyT said:

Vinny said:

And Amber Rudd is loathed in Hastings, a constituency she has so misrepresented in terms of her constant efforts to obtain a second referendum and to ensure the UK remains in the EU. Hastings is a solid Brexiteer town that voted 54% leave. I know that town, for I was brought up there. It is a town that cannot wait to dump her.

I would hardly call 54% in a referendum two and a half years ago "solid".

Hastings has flipped to Remain now.

Charles

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

If you don’t have anything nice to say...

Quincel

Foxy said:

While that is certainly true, the Tory vote in the constituency is likely to be strongly Leave. I suspect it unlikely that Amber would convert many Lab/Green/LD voters there to the party of Brexit.

You may be right, I haven't particularly considered that. My point really was just how we talk about Leave:Remain areas, I haven't thought much about Rudd's chances.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn won only four more seats than Gordon did in 2010. His tally of 262 was fifty-five behind the Tories.

Agreed. I think the 2017 election was paradoxically the biggest win for the 2-party system overall for decades but also a bad election for both parties individually. It only felt better for Labour because of how low expectations were.

williamglenn said:

It's also a mistake to assume that the strength of feeling is reflected in the balance of opinion. In a constituency that voted 60:40 Leave, the Remainers could be more resolute and determined, and the Leavers more apathetic, than in a place that voted 60:40 Remain.

Fair point, and in different places this could cut both ways (as you allude to).

Toms

Beverley_C said:

Toms said:

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

God I hate those Man/Women of the People types who are in fact elitist snobs.

Almost as bad as elitist snobs wot wear red shoes

Louboutins? Very classy ...

For elegant and expensive instance:

https://tinyurl.com/y9stvhrk

Try wearing them. Strictly bar-to-car...

Toms said:

Edit; Fila trainers do for me.

Your shoes are made from pastry???? Wow

Oh! Fila, not filo...

Big smile.
And I only buy Fila when they're being cleared, 20 - 30 quid say.

TheScreamingEagles

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

I think Sir John Redwood is a massive bell end and a hypocrite.

Perhaps you can refer me to all your posts criticising the SNP?

I am not a member of the SNP , neither do I promote them other than for their support of independence. If you look back a week or so you will see me criticising their tax policies.

You and your facts ruining my arguments.

I'll go sit quietly in the corner now.

Theuniondivvie

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

If you don’t have anything nice to say...

...say nothing.

& this place would close down the day after.

Foxy

Quincel said:

Foxy said:

While that is certainly true, the Tory vote in the constituency is likely to be strongly Leave. I suspect it unlikely that Amber would convert many Lab/Green/LD voters there to the party of Brexit.

You may be right, I haven't particularly considered that. My point really was just how we talk about Leave:Remain areas, I haven't thought much about Rudd's chances.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Corbyn won only four more seats than Gordon did in 2010. His tally of 262 was fifty-five behind the Tories.

Agreed. I think the 2017 election was paradoxically the biggest win for the 2-party system overall for decades but also a bad election for both parties individually. It only felt better for Labour because of how low expectations were.

williamglenn said:

It's also a mistake to assume that the strength of feeling is reflected in the balance of opinion. In a constituency that voted 60:40 Leave, the Remainers could be more resolute and determined, and the Leavers more apathetic, than in a place that voted 60:40 Remain.

Fair point, and in different places this could cut both ways (as you allude to).

Yes, even in strong Leave areas there was typically 30%+ share for Remain, and vice versa in most Remain areas. Age, Education and social class need to be considered along with geography. Indeed when age corrected much of the geograpy changes. Old Leavers often retire to the coast.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1079394226478239744

malcolmg

Beverley_C said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

I think Sir John Redwood is a massive bell end and a hypocrite.

Perhaps you can refer me to all your posts criticising the SNP?

I am not a member of the SNP , neither do I promote them other than for their support of independence. If you look back a week or so you will see me criticising their tax policies.

I thought you WERE the SNP and that you merely posted under a nom de plume Mr Salmond!

I'm shocked

You mean your name really is Malcolm and not Alex???

Very Droll Bev

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

malcolmg

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

I cannot believe I'm forced to defend John Redwood, but I have seen him do some charity work, for the Lord's Taverners.

Good old Tories, always there to help each other out. He must be a great guy after all.

I think Sir John Redwood is a massive bell end and a hypocrite.

Perhaps you can refer me to all your posts criticising the SNP?

I am not a member of the SNP , neither do I promote them other than for their support of independence. If you look back a week or so you will see me criticising their tax policies.

You and your facts ruining my arguments.

I'll go sit quietly in the corner now.

You don't need to wear the hat

Jonathan

Is Brexit a Christmas movie?

FrancisUrquhart

Jonathan said:

Is Brexit a Christmas movie?

If only we talked about it once a year...

Richard_Nabavi

Afternoon all. I hope you all had a suitably merry Christmas.

Clearly Shadsy did. 6/4 on Labour in Hastings & Rye? Whilst I shall be helping Amber's campaign, I don't think she should be favourite.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

Plus the people have spoken,

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/937731219743264768

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

Plus the people have spoken,

twitter.com/YouGov/status/937731219743264768

I trust the data, not the people...we can't have the plebs deciding things!

NickPalmer

When Broxtowe comes up the odds will be interesting. It's not easy to rate. Soubry certainly has superb name recognition now and lots of Labour people are quite nice about her now (feeling that she gives the Tories more trouble than I ever did). The Labour candidate is also well-known locally and has a less Marmite-like personality: he ran her close last time. She will certainly lose some Tory Leaver votes; the question is whether Labour people who like her on Brexit will actually vote for her. It possibly depends on how she actually votes on the issue - if she follows Ken in voting for May's deal after all I think she'll lose most of the sympathy without appeasing many of the Leavers.

But, as with Amber Rudd, who knows how much Brexit views will seem to matter when the election comes round?

IanB2

Jonathan said:

Is Brexit a Christmas movie?

Jan 7th isn't really Christmas

oldpolitics

notme2 said:

oldpolitics said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

In fairness it's going to be a bonkers school where children run the place, work is optional, discipline is frowned upon, and 'creative thinking' is valued rather than, you know, learning stuff. Didn't the left try one of these before? Summerhill? And to a lesser extent Pierrepont.

This kind of thing can work when you have very motivated staff and very motivated supportive parents. It wont work in a bog standard situation.

Yeah you can Montessori a group of rich kids in small classes fine.

Challenged areas badly need something more like Michaela.

AmpfieldAndy

The_Taxman said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

The Tories got the most votes in over 20 years in 2017! People focus on the parliamentary arithmetic but May for all her obvious flaws led the Tories to their biggest increase in the vote for decades, she got an increase over Cameron's benchmark figures. 2017 could well be the best performance the Tories have for quite some time! Governments usually tend to repel voters due to the unpopular decisions they are usually forced to make.

I don't think changing the leader will automatically result in higher support for the Tories. Basically the Tories will have squandered their time in office with the focus on Europe and the likely detrimental impact of a No Deal Brexit.

Biggest vote counts for nothing when you blow a 20% lead in the polls in a snap election you call andyou lose sufficient seats to lose your majority. She only saved her job thanks to the Scots and May did nothing to revitalise their fortunes.

Changing her out won’t automatically result in higher support, I agree. The Tories could elect and even greater muppet like Rudd or Hunt as leader, but assuming they don’t push that self destruct button, they have a much greater chance.

kinabalu

Not looking forward to the next GE as regards my seat, Hampstead & Kilburn. It used to be a razor edge 3 way marginal. Meaning that on election day, and in the run-up, there was a real sense of occasion. Knowing how much my vote would count (approx 100 times an ordinary one in an ordinary place) I would spend hours poring over manifestos, weighing up the various key policies, going to all the hustings, before voting Labour.

All that came to an end in 2017. Tulip Sadiq won it by such a margin that it is now a safe seat for the Reds. Nobody will be bothering me next time and I won’t be bothering them. Will still vote of course, people have died so I can, but it will not be the same.

AmpfieldAndy

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Next GE won’t have May as Tory leader, even if the Tories actually manage to stay together, won’t have such a woeful campaign or such an irrelevant manifesto - that will change a lot of people’s voting intentions.

Whether May leads in the next GE very much depends on the time and events that lead to its arrival.

Technically that’s true but she has actually said she won’t. It was the price she had to pay to keep her job and avert a leadership crisis. You wouldnt want to imply she was a liar, I trust.

Charles

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

If you don’t have anything nice to say...

...say nothing.

& this place would close down the day after.

To be clear I was referring to her comment not yours.

They separated over 15 years ago. A shame she hasn’t moved on with her life

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1454388/Redwood-comes-out-fighting-against-ex-wife.html

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/features/empire-30-best-christmas-movies/

Arguably the greatest action movie ever made, and now the greatest Christmas movie ever made, too. Bruce Willis’ John McClane may seem like an unlikely Santa Claus – he doesn’t have enough hair for one – but what better Christmas present is there than the gift of terrorists getting taken down as they try to take Nakatomi Plaza hostage during a Christmas party in order to carry out an elaborate theft? Not for Empire readers the cutesy Christmas trees of other Christmas movies, or the sight of people in ill-advised knitwear drinking eggnog. For you guys, nothing says deck the halls like jumping off a roof tied to a fire hose, and nothing says season of goodwill like a machine gun. Ho ho ho.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

Plus the people have spoken,

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/937731219743264768

If you look at the age split, we just need to wait for the no voters to die off. It’s inevitable TSE!

AlastairMeeks

A blunt interview from Jean-Claude Juncker:

https://twitter.com/stefaniebolzen/status/1079303324841771008?s=21

He’s obviously worried about Brexit and how equipped Romania is to deal with its role as president.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

As the film has a Christmas setting, the score also features sleigh bells in some cues, as well as the Christmas pop standard "Winter Wonderland". Two 1987 pop songs are used as source music: near the film's beginning, limousine driver Argyle plays the rap song "Christmas in Hollis", performed by Run–D.M.C., and later, while talking on the phone in the limousine, Argyle is listening to Stevie Wonder's "Skeletons". The end credits of the film begin with the Christmas song "Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!" (performed by Vaughn Monroe)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Hard

matt

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

That has the air of a bitter divorce. Truth generally disappears.

rcs1000

oldpolitics said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought she was a Corbynista? They will be rescinding her maomentum membership card when they hear this.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6539825/Charlotte-Church-open-school-September.html

In fairness it's going to be a bonkers school where children run the place, work is optional, discipline is frowned upon, and 'creative thinking' is valued rather than, you know, learning stuff. Didn't the left try one of these before? Summerhill? And to a lesser extent Pierrepont.

I think King Alfred's in Hampstead (http://www.kingalfred.org.uk) is still very much like that.

Charles

matt said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

That has the air of a bitter divorce. Truth generally disappears.

You think? It was 15 years ago!’

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1079394226478239744

And "any other party except Con, Lab, LD, Green or UKIP to win MOST seats" only 25/1 ????

Theuniondivvie

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Charles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ex wives and everything, but a definite whiff of actualité.

https://twitter.com/wommmbat1/status/1078933675117604864

If you don’t have anything nice to say...

...say nothing.

& this place would close down the day after.

To be clear I was referring to her comment not yours.

They separated over 15 years ago. A shame she hasn’t moved on with her life

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1454388/Redwood-comes-out-fighting-against-ex-wife.html

Presumably Redwood's charitable act(s) as witnessed by TSE was in the last 15 years. Perhaps divorce has made him a reformed character (though he still sounds the same tetchy, humourless ***** in recent interviews I've heard).

ydoethur

AlastairMeeks said:

A blunt interview from Jean-Claude Juncker:

https://twitter.com/stefaniebolzen/status/1079303324841771008?s=21

He’s obviously worried about Brexit and how equipped Romania is to deal with its role as president.

*puts head in hands*

Thanks JCJ. You clearly felt you hadn't done enough damage with your hare-brained drunken posturing during the referendum so you feel the need to epically fuck up again by openly telling the swing voters they're stupid, anti-democratic and incompetent not to do what you're telling them.

He really was a very good and indeed if the EU were a federal superstate alone unanswerable reason for voting Leave. He's now trying to maximise the chaos. Whether it's because he's drunk, a fool or just tin eared I don't know.

IanB2

kinabalu said:

Not looking forward to the next GE as regards my seat, Hampstead & Kilburn. It used to be a razor edge 3 way marginal. Meaning that on election day, and in the run-up, there was a real sense of occasion. Knowing how much my vote would count (approx 100 times an ordinary one in an ordinary place) I would spend hours poring over manifestos, weighing up the various key policies, going to all the hustings, before voting Labour.

All that came to an end in 2017. Tulip Sadiq won it by such a margin that it is now a safe seat for the Reds. Nobody will be bothering me next time and I won’t be bothering them. Will still vote of course, people have died so I can, but it will not be the same.

About time your favoured party got thinking about a better system, then?

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

Plus the people have spoken,

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/937731219743264768

Well the experts disagree with you.

Voted the Number 1 Christmas Movie by Empire Magazine readers.
Described as unquestionably a Christmas Movie by Mark Kermode (with a long explanation about how it is set at Christmas, has a Christmas party as its main setting, includes a Christmas story of redemption and has the lead female character called Holly).
Included as one of the great Christmas movies by the Sky Arts movie team.

Face it, as with your attitude to the French, denying Solo as great Star wars film and pineapple on pizza, this is just another example of how wrong you can be.

Oh and release date is meaningless.

Holiday Inn (with the original White Christmas song) was released in August 1942
Miracle on 34th Street was released in May 1947.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

Plus the people have spoken,

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/937731219743264768

Well the experts disagree with you.

Voted the Number 1 Christmas Movie by Empire Magazine readers.
Described as unquestionably a Christmas Movie by Mark Kermode (with a long explanation about how it is set at Christmas, has a Christmas party as its main setting, includes a Christmas story of redemption and has the lead female character called Holly).
Included as one of the great Christmas movies by the Sky Arts movie team.

Face it, as with your attitude to the French, denying Solo as great Star wars film and pineapple on pizza, this is just another example of how wrong you can be.

The Empire poll is a voodoo poll, the YouGov poll is a properly weighted poll.

Mark Kermode, we're in the age of sick and tired of experts.

AnneJGP

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A blunt interview from Jean-Claude Juncker:

https://twitter.com/stefaniebolzen/status/1079303324841771008?s=21

He’s obviously worried about Brexit and how equipped Romania is to deal with its role as president.

*puts head in hands*

Thanks JCJ. You clearly felt you hadn't done enough damage with your hare-brained drunken posturing during the referendum so you feel the need to epically fuck up again by openly telling the swing voters they're stupid, anti-democratic and incompetent not to do what you're telling them.

He really was a very good and indeed if the EU were a federal superstate alone unanswerable reason for voting Leave. He's now trying to maximise the chaos. Whether it's because he's drunk, a fool or just tin eared I don't know.

You don't sound altogether in sympathy with the gentleman.

ydoethur

AnneJGP said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A blunt interview from Jean-Claude Juncker:

https://twitter.com/stefaniebolzen/status/1079303324841771008?s=21

He’s obviously worried about Brexit and how equipped Romania is to deal with its role as president.

*puts head in hands*

Thanks JCJ. You clearly felt you hadn't done enough damage with your hare-brained drunken posturing during the referendum so you feel the need to epically fuck up again by openly telling the swing voters they're stupid, anti-democratic and incompetent not to do what you're telling them.

He really was a very good and indeed if the EU were a federal superstate alone unanswerable reason for voting Leave. He's now trying to maximise the chaos. Whether it's because he's drunk, a fool or just tin eared I don't know.

You don't sound altogether in sympathy with the gentleman.

I can only admire your perspicacity Anne.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Obligatory best Chrimbo movie watching completed...i.e. Die Hard, Die Hard 2, Home Alone....The question is do I inflict the disasters that are Die Hard 3+ and / or same with Home Alone on Chez Urquhart?

There's more snow in The Empire Strikes Back than in Die Hard, just saying.

I assume you were eating pizzas with pineapples on them whilst watching those films?

Just saying...

The neatest summary I can provide is to say that there are many Christmas elements in the movie. Although the studio did not intend it to be a Christmas movie, some of the film’s key creators did. Either way, it’s certainly fair to say that Die Hard is regarded as a Christmas movie in popular culture.

Like it or not, the association between Die Hard and Christmas is fast increasing and in years to come its Christmassyness will be beyond question.

https://stephenfollows.com/using-data-to-determine-if-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

On a more serious note, I forget how adult Die Hard actually is. I always remember it as kind of Ocean's Eleven type movie, but there is quite a few scenes in there that aren't suitable for kids. I believe it might have even been an 18 at time of release.

It was released in July 1988, definitely not a Christmas film.

Plus the people have spoken,

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/937731219743264768

Well the experts disagree with you.

Voted the Number 1 Christmas Movie by Empire Magazine readers.
Described as unquestionably a Christmas Movie by Mark Kermode (with a long explanation about how it is set at Christmas, has a Christmas party as its main setting, includes a Christmas story of redemption and has the lead female character called Holly).
Included as one of the great Christmas movies by the Sky Arts movie team.

Face it, as with your attitude to the French, denying Solo as great Star wars film and pineapple on pizza, this is just another example of how wrong you can be.

The Empire poll is a voodoo poll, the YouGov poll is a properly weighted poll.

Mark Kermode, we're in the age of sick and tired of experts.

You are the one who mentioned experts. I just showed that they disagree with you. Thankfully both the TV networks and the experts know you are wrong and you are going to be stuck forever more with Die Hard being shown as a Christmas Movie.