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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

With brexit being just about the only political story in the UK during 2018 it is inevitable that there has been a lot of betting attention. In the charts above I feature two markets. First whether Britain will actually leave the EU as planned on March 29th and second on the chances of a second referendum.

Read the full story here

IanB2

First! Like Remain.

TudorRose

Second - Like Rejoin!

kyf_100

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

ydoethur

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

To save TSE the effort:

2016 was the second referendum.

kyf_100

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

To save TSE the effort:

2016 was the second referendum.

In which case it should have been the third. After the referendum on Lisbon we were promised.

AmpfieldAndy

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

Only if you believe the EEC and the EU are substantively the same. I doubt anyone seriously thinks that otherwise there would have been no need for the 2016 referendum.

IanB2

On the exit date, it remains my view that no responsible politician will allow a no deal exit, and that encompasses most of the government and most of the opposition. So either someone blinks and there is a deal, or they don't and there is an extension. Judging the odds is perilous but I don't agree with Mike that the market is necessarily wrong.

IanB2

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

AmpfieldAndy

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

ydoethur

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

IanB2

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

kyf_100

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

AmpfieldAndy

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

Rubbish. The Remain supporting Gov chose the question and the Leave members of Cabinet since have been undermined by the control freak that is May.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

Which - given that the proposition on the table involves the UK leaving the EU in three months' time - tells you all you need to know about the realism and credibility of those most committed to Brexit.

Benpointer

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

Hang on - I thought you were against May's deal?

AmpfieldAndy

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

IanB2

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

Rubbish. The Remain supporting Gov chose the question and the Leave members of Cabinet since have been undermined by the control freak that is May.

That sounds like getting in your excuses early. Or late, but pretending that you are early.

AmpfieldAndy

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

Hang on - I thought you were against May's deal?

I am against May’s deal. The prospects of leaving with no deal however are virtually nil given the antics of Tory Remain MPs

IanB2

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

No, the proportion of people who will care enough in your first scenario is a tiny minority, not 25%.

AmpfieldAndy

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

Rubbish. The Remain supporting Gov chose the question and the Leave members of Cabinet since have been undermined by the control freak that is May.

That sounds like getting in your excuses early. Or late, but pretending that you are early.

And that sounds like you have nothing worthwhile to say, again, but simply want the last word. Go ahead. It’s yours.

ydoethur

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

OldKingCole

IanB2 said:

On the exit date, it remains my view that no responsible politician will allow a no deal exit, and that encompasses most of the government and most of the opposition. So either someone blinks and there is a deal, or they don't and there is an extension. Judging the odds is perilous but I don't agree with Mike that the market is necessarily wrong.

Agree; if there isn't agreement on May's Deal by 22nd March there'll be an extension. How long I'm not sure. Probably three months, which would take us to late June. I think we'll Leave on 29th March, though, and then 'my' side can start planning the campaign to Rejoin.

IanB2

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

Rubbish. The Remain supporting Gov chose the question and the Leave members of Cabinet since have been undermined by the control freak that is May.

That sounds like getting in your excuses early. Or late, but pretending that you are early.

And that sounds like you have nothing worthwhile to say, again, but simply want the last word. Go ahead. It’s yours.

This might provoke a wry smile: a Brexiter who bets his money on its damaging consequences.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/28/crispin-odey-hedge-fund-bets-against-uk-economy-brexit-profit-falls

AmpfieldAndy

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

kyf_100

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

No, the proportion of people who will care enough in your first scenario is a tiny minority, not 25%.

Rubbish. YouGov showed that if Brexit was cancelled, 24% would feel betrayed, a further 8% would be disappointed, while 6% would feel angry.

That's approximately quarter of the electorate voting for a hard brexit now party, with a small number of malcontents ready to go further take to the streets and start throwing stones.

For the purpose of the avoidance of any misunderstanding I would be in the former rather than the latter category.

But we have discussed this before and I fail to see how any party could govern under such circumstances without the support of a hard brexit party, either in coalition or by throwing them a bone (such as another referendum).

Enough of the country is dedicated to seeing the democratic mandate voted for in 2016 implemented to make the country ungovernable without them.

Recidivist

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

Exactly. I didn't like the result, but I respected it. Until it was obvious its protagonists had not the slightest clue how to implement it.

kyf_100

Recidivist said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

The first has effectively been dishonoured by the Brexiters' two years of failure to come up with a workable plan and their mostly running away at the first sign of trouble.

Exactly. I didn't like the result, but I respected it. Until it was obvious its protagonists had not the slightest clue how to implement it.

May I remind you who the current Prime Minister supported during the referendum campaign. Hint: It wasn't leave.

kinabalu

AmpfieldAndy said:

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

The redoubtable Ken should not be bracketed with the others. Nor should Morgan. They are both prepared to Brexit on the negotiated terms.

Benpointer

AmpfieldAndy said:

Benpointer said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

Hang on - I thought you were against May's deal?

I am against May’s deal. The prospects of leaving with no deal however are virtually nil given the antics of Tory Remain MPs

You sound disappointed. You'd rather the country suffer serious economic dislocation and a few 1000 people die because of lack of meds?

ydoethur

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

Recidivist

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

AmpfieldAndy

kinabalu said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

The redoubtable Ken should not be bracketed with the others. Nor should Morgan. They are both prepared to Brexit on the negotiated terms.

Clarke opposed. A50 being lodged - one of the few to do so. I can’t see him supporting anything to do with Brexit. I don’t see any difference between Soubry and Morgan myself except that Soubry has threatened to resign the whip and Morgan hasn’t - yet.

ydoethur

kinabalu said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

The redoubtable Ken should not be bracketed with the others. Nor should Morgan. They are both prepared to Brexit on the negotiated terms.

On the other hand, I am quite happy to endorse any criticism of Nicky Morgan whether reasonable or not. Given that she's not criticised for most of the things she should be castigated for - such as appointing a chief of OFSTED with no relevant experience and a track record of cataclysmic failure over the objections of just about everybody sane including her own backbench committee on education - it's perfectly fair that she gets it undeservedly. It's just karma.

ydoethur

AmpfieldAndy said:

kinabalu said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

The redoubtable Ken should not be bracketed with the others. Nor should Morgan. They are both prepared to Brexit on the negotiated terms.

Clarke opposed. A50 being lodged - one of the few to do so. I can’t see him supporting anything to do with Brexit. I don’t see any difference between Soubry and Morgan myself except that Soubry has threatened to resign the whip and Morgan hasn’t - yet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46285004/ken-clarke-i-will-back-pm-s-dog-s-breakfast-brexit-deal

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

No point in arguing with Ampfield; he can see his dream of the hardest of hard Brexit slowly slipping away and he is rightly beginning to worry that in pushing for No Deal Brexit his ERG heroes may accidentally deliver Remain. The irony of which would be delicious.

Recidivist

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

kinabalu said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

The redoubtable Ken should not be bracketed with the others. Nor should Morgan. They are both prepared to Brexit on the negotiated terms.

Clarke opposed. A50 being lodged - one of the few to do so. I can’t see him supporting anything to do with Brexit. I don’t see any difference between Soubry and Morgan myself except that Soubry has threatened to resign the whip and Morgan hasn’t - yet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46285004/ken-clarke-i-will-back-pm-s-dog-s-breakfast-brexit-deal

I can think of ways he could have said he was behind the deal that would have sounded a little more supportive.

ydoethur

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

AmpfieldAndy

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

Leavers outnumber Remainers in the Tory parliamentary party - very funny. Comedy must be your real talent. Wales could do with a successor to Max Boyce.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

No point in arguing with Ampfield; he can see his dream of the hardest of hard Brexit slowly slipping away and he is rightly beginning to worry that in pushing for No Deal Brexit his ERG heroes may accidentally deliver Remain. The irony of which would be delicious.

Well, Clarke refers to 'dog's breakfast,' how about 'karma's a bitch?'

ydoethur

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

Leavers outnumber Remainers in the Tory parliamentary party - very funny. Comedy must be your real talent. Wales could do with a successor to Max Boyce.

Hooray, an admission!

And surely you knew about the talent I have for comedy given the awesome puns I regale people with?

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

No point in arguing with Ampfield; he can see his dream of the hardest of hard Brexit slowly slipping away and he is rightly beginning to worry that in pushing for No Deal Brexit his ERG heroes may accidentally deliver Remain. The irony of which would be delicious.

As a good Welshman, I spend much time hunting for lost sheep...

Sean_F

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

ydoethur

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

And now Jacob Rees-Mogg as somebody in his forties who is breaking Leave...

AmpfieldAndy

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

Leavers outnumber Remainers in the Tory parliamentary party - very funny. Comedy must be your real talent. Wales could do with a successor to Max Boyce.

Hooray, an admission!

And surely you knew about the talent I have for comedy given the awesome puns I regale people with?

That laughter you can hear is people laughing at you, though, not with you.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

The Conservatives will continue as a Leave-dominated party, or will be replaced by one.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Yes, but that's not really a very good argument, is it? Remain would have won if a large number of groups hadn't voted the other way?

It's like saying get rid of Scotland and Leave won a landslide.

IanB2

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

No, the proportion of people who will care enough in your first scenario is a tiny minority, not 25%.

Rubbish. YouGov showed that if Brexit was cancelled, 24% would feel betrayed, a further 8% would be disappointed, while 6% would feel angry.

That's approximately quarter of the electorate voting for a hard brexit now party, with a small number of malcontents ready to go further take to the streets and start throwing stones.

For the purpose of the avoidance of any misunderstanding I would be in the former rather than the latter category.

But we have discussed this before and I fail to see how any party could govern under such circumstances without the support of a hard brexit party, either in coalition or by throwing them a bone (such as another referendum).

Enough of the country is dedicated to seeing the democratic mandate voted for in 2016 implemented to make the country ungovernable without them.

I reckon such a party would be pitching to the 6%. Particularly as many of the 'betrayed' have effectively been betrayed by their own commanders.

If we escape from this nightmare ride, appetite for going back to the kiosk to buy another ticket will be a niche obsession.

Benpointer

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

Leavers outnumber Remainers in the Tory parliamentary party - very funny. Comedy must be your real talent. Wales could do with a successor to Max Boyce.

Hooray, an admission!

And surely you knew about the talent I have for comedy given the awesome puns I regale people with?

That laughter you can hear is people laughing at you, though, not with you.

Not so. I don't agree with @ydoethur on very much but his jokes are often quite funny.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Students are not economically active, and they were about 80% Remain.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Yes, but that's not really a very good argument, is it? Remain would have won if a large number of groups hadn't voted the other way?

It's like saying get rid of Scotland and Leave won a landslide.

I suggest that it is highly relevant that a significant proportion of the leave vote came from people who have (or think they have) no real stake in the UK economy. Just look at all the expat leavers on here.

ydoethur

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

If May gets her deal through Parliament, we certainly will leave next March. If she does, no doubt Remain will further demonstrate their contempt for the referendum result and contempt for democracy. Tory Remain MPs can’t really complain about Corbyn’s antics in Parliament when they themselves show such blatant disregard for 52% of the electorate.

I can’t see a need for a second referendum. We haven’t honoured the first yet.

It's not Tory Remainers that are the major problem, it's the ERG and DUP.

You keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep or not. Ignoring the facts like the obstruction shown by Grieve, Morgan, Soubry, Greening, Clarke is what Remainers do best.

Would those five, as opposed to the 90 votes of the ERG, make a difference? Or would the DUP and ERG falling in line make it much more difficult for them to rebel, as that really would be blocking Brexit?

Don't blame me if you find Maths awkward, especially since I teach History.

That would be the same ERG that claimed to have 48 no confidence letters and made fools of themselves for weeks.

I got a first class honours degree in history. Glad you weren’t my teacher if it’s on a par with your maths. Only a fool would claim there were more Leave supporting MPs than Remain in the current Tory parliamentary party so politics isn’t your strong suit either.

Hmm. Well, that puts you on a par with me in the honours stakes. What did you get in your Masters?

I note you still haven't explained why in a party where on any measure Leavers vastly outnumber Remainers (and incidentally, Clarke has said he will vote for the deal) it is Remainers that are the problem.

Leavers outnumber Remainers in the Tory parliamentary party - very funny. Comedy must be your real talent. Wales could do with a successor to Max Boyce.

Hooray, an admission!

And surely you knew about the talent I have for comedy given the awesome puns I regale people with?

That laughter you can hear is people laughing at you, though, not with you.

Now that is funny

viewcode

CarlottaVance said:

Deservedly unforgiving:

https://twitter.com/Jonscoasting/status/1078953145760395264

I usually think the Spectator is a job creation scheme for wealthy people too repellent to hold down a job with normal people (eg Rod Liddle). But that's a good article from James Kirkup, and his colleague James Forsyth is good also.

kinabalu

AmpfieldAndy said:

Clarke opposed. A50 being lodged - one of the few to do so. I can’t see him supporting anything to do with Brexit. I don’t see any difference between Soubry and Morgan myself except that Soubry has threatened to resign the whip and Morgan hasn’t - yet.

He did. But he is now supporting Brexit. Ditto Morgan.

It's a very different position to the Soubry, Grieve PV faction. They are hell bent on cancelling the whole shebang.

Recidivist

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

I thought that was a well known fact. It can be inferred from the age profile data without too much of a stretch, but it is backed up by polling. For example point 4 here -

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

If you add in the 3 million European citizens who live here but had no vote the people who contribute to our prosperity can be assumed to be very comfortably behind remaining. Daniel Hannan would probably describe it as the victory of the shirking classes over the working classes.

Benpointer

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

Citation?

NickPalmer

Ken Clarke has said he'll support May's deal, so is indeed in a different group than Soubry at present. We shall see whether they both maintain their positions.

As was pointed out on the last thread, the Home Office statement that the application may be shared with domesitc and foreign public and private bodies seems to breach GDPR. I suppose they argue that applying constitutes acceptance of the sharing (though that's not how I read GDPR), but it does mean that unless you agree to nameless private bodies getting your details, you are not eligible to stay in Britain. That seems completely indefensible, surely? At least the bodies with whom the data will be shared should be listed, with the purpose of the sharing stated.

IanB2

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Students are not economically active, and they were about 80% Remain.

Multiply by the turnout percentage, though.

I was talking to my brother's youngest last night, who feels the older generation has stuffed his own. But he admitted he didn't vote in 2016, has never voted in any election, and - most peculiarly - probably wouldn't bother if there was a people's vote.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Yes, but that's not really a very good argument, is it? Remain would have won if a large number of groups hadn't voted the other way?

It's like saying get rid of Scotland and Leave won a landslide.

I suggest that it is highly relevant that a significant proportion of the leave vote came from people who have (or think they have) no real stake in the UK economy. Just look at all the expat leavers on here.

Unfortunately that is a non-sequitur of an argument as a democracy doesn't depend on economic activity. Moreover the retired and the unemployed often have a substantial stake in the economy given the nature of the services they need and use.

How many expat Leavers are there on here now? With Archer gone I can think of Sandpit and RCS1000, but hasn't Max moved back to the UK?

IanB2

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

The Conservatives will continue as a Leave-dominated party, or will be replaced by one.

Yes, but that was the case for decades past, during which we didn't take any meaningful steps in that direction.

Besides, if Brexit collapses, the Tories might find that their base is somewhat shrunken as a consequence.

Recidivist

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Students are not economically active, and they were about 80% Remain.

Multiply by the turnout percentage, though.

I was talking to my brother's youngest last night, who feels the older generation has stuffed his own. But he admitted he didn't vote in 2016, has never voted in any election, and - most peculiarly - probably wouldn't bother if there was a people's vote.

Which punches a hole in the 'you can't complain if you don't vote' line. It turns out people can and frequently do.

ydoethur

NickPalmer said:

Ken Clarke has said he'll support May's deal, so is indeed in a different group than Soubry at present. We shall see whether they both maintain their positions.

As was pointed out on the last thread, the Home Office statement that the application may be shared with domesitc and foreign public and private bodies seems to breach GDPR. I suppose they argue that applying constitutes acceptance of the sharing (though that's not how I read GDPR), but it does mean that unless you agree to nameless private bodies getting your details, you are not eligible to stay in Britain. That seems completely indefensible, surely? At least the bodies with whom the data will be shared should be listed, with the purpose of the sharing stated.

You can't presume consent any more, as I have had drummed into me by the school's data officer. So I would agree this looks fishy.

However, here is one thought that occurs - will GDPR not be one of the first things to go on withdrawal? It's not popular and it seems to create at least as many problems as it would solve. In which case, as the application only becomes live after the WA expires, it may be that it's a sign of what's coming.

Gardenwalker

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

I though the mean age was 45 (of Leave), or even the mean cohort was 45-55. Which doesn’t imply that “people in their forties broke for Leave”.

FrancisUrquhart

I hope all pbers had a good Xmas and of course found time to watch the undisputed king of Xmas movies, Die Hard.

kinabalu

ydoethur said:

On the other hand, I am quite happy to endorse any criticism of Nicky Morgan whether reasonable or not. Given that she's not criticised for most of the things she should be castigated for - such as appointing a chief of OFSTED with no relevant experience and a track record of cataclysmic failure over the objections of just about everybody sane including her own backbench committee on education - it's perfectly fair that she gets it undeservedly. It's just karma.

Who's your favourite Education Secretary? Which one tinkles your ivories rather than collies your wobbles?

NickPalmer

Political life beyond Brexit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/us/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-kamala-elizabeth-warren.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Yes, but that's not really a very good argument, is it? Remain would have won if a large number of groups hadn't voted the other way?

It's like saying get rid of Scotland and Leave won a landslide.

I suggest that it is highly relevant that a significant proportion of the leave vote came from people who have (or think they have) no real stake in the UK economy. Just look at all the expat leavers on here.

Home owners voted Leave by a fair margin. Do they not have a stake in the UK economy?

AlastairMeeks

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

Sean_F

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

I though the mean age was 45 (of Leave), or even the mean cohort was 45-55. Which doesn’t imply that “people in their forties broke for Leave”.

I think the tipping point was 42 years old.

As it happens, the only age cohort to show a huge majority for one side was 18-24 year olds.

AmpfieldAndy

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Yes, but that's not really a very good argument, is it? Remain would have won if a large number of groups hadn't voted the other way?

It's like saying get rid of Scotland and Leave won a landslide.

I suggest that it is highly relevant that a significant proportion of the leave vote came from people who have (or think they have) no real stake in the UK economy. Just look at all the expat leavers on here.

Given that inner cities, with the exception of Birmingham, overwhelmingly favoured Remain that doesn’t ring true at all.

MikeSmithson

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

The Conservatives will continue as a Leave-dominated party, or will be replaced by one.

Yes, but that was the case for decades past, during which we didn't take any meaningful steps in that direction.

Besides, if Brexit collapses, the Tories might find that their base is somewhat shrunken as a consequence.

But there is zero sign of Conservative voters from last time being interested in Labour or it's leader.

Benpointer

Sean_F said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

I though the mean age was 45 (of Leave), or even the mean cohort was 45-55. Which doesn’t imply that “people in their forties broke for Leave”.

I think the tipping point was 42 years old.

As it happens, the only age cohort to show a huge majority for one side was 18-24 year olds.

Over 65s split 64/36 for Leave according to YouGov.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

ydoethur

kinabalu said:

ydoethur said:

On the other hand, I am quite happy to endorse any criticism of Nicky Morgan whether reasonable or not. Given that she's not criticised for most of the things she should be castigated for - such as appointing a chief of OFSTED with no relevant experience and a track record of cataclysmic failure over the objections of just about everybody sane including her own backbench committee on education - it's perfectly fair that she gets it undeservedly. It's just karma.

Who's your favourite Education Secretary? Which one tinkles your ivories rather than collies your wobbles?

Well, first of all Education Secretary is a job that's usually seen as a stepping stone to something 'better,' so the incumbents tend to spend more time shrieking good tabloid slogans rather than dealing with the actual problems. Morgan and Balls spring to mind. Gove, to his credit, was not of that disposition but unfortunately having correctly identified the problems he came up with solutions that while not themselves necessarily wrong were badly implemented and eventually disastrous.

In my mother's 39 year teaching career, she could think of one Secretary of State she liked - John Macgregor, who was at least willing to talk to teachers rather than shout and scream and swear at them. He didn't last though. Interestingly among my few veteran colleagues that's a name that comes up unprompted as well. Estelle Morris had the understanding but nowhere near the political skill. Can't even remember who the current encumbrance is, so he's probably better than average. Blunkett and Clarke were thugs and ideologues. Johnson was amiable but unimaginative.

So in my experience of education by far the best SOS was Greening, and I'm still furious she got the sack.

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

Sean_F

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sean_F said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

People in work split 50/50. Students were overwhelmingly Remain, retired people less overwhelmingly Leave. Time and again, it's overlooked that people in their forties broke for Leave.

I though the mean age was 45 (of Leave), or even the mean cohort was 45-55. Which doesn’t imply that “people in their forties broke for Leave”.

I think the tipping point was 42 years old.

As it happens, the only age cohort to show a huge majority for one side was 18-24 year olds.

Over 65s split 64/36 for Leave according to YouGov.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

Big, but not huge.

kyf_100

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

No, the proportion of people who will care enough in your first scenario is a tiny minority, not 25%.

Rubbish. YouGov showed that if Brexit was cancelled, 24% would feel betrayed, a further 8% would be disappointed, while 6% would feel angry.

That's approximately quarter of the electorate voting for a hard brexit now party, with a small number of malcontents ready to go further take to the streets and start throwing stones.

For the purpose of the avoidance of any misunderstanding I would be in the former rather than the latter category.

But we have discussed this before and I fail to see how any party could govern under such circumstances without the support of a hard brexit party, either in coalition or by throwing them a bone (such as another referendum).

Enough of the country is dedicated to seeing the democratic mandate voted for in 2016 implemented to make the country ungovernable without them.

I reckon such a party would be pitching to the 6%. Particularly as many of the 'betrayed' have effectively been betrayed by their own commanders.

If we escape from this nightmare ride, appetite for going back to the kiosk to buy another ticket will be a niche obsession.

If you fancy rolling those dice, let's go for it.

UKIP were already on as much as 18% in the polls in the run up to the 2015 GE. I was a Con voter in 2015 and 2017 and would certainly vote UKIP/nuKIP/whoever if the government failed to implement the result of the 2016 referendum.

I state again. Enough people will demand that result, as voted for, and won, in 2016, be implemented, that the country will be ungovernable without them.

FrancisUrquhart

It’s not f##king racist to want the law to upheld and even the BBC acknowledge that most of the people involved aren’t who they claim to be.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/29/we-should-be-ashamed-of-our-response-to-this-refugee-crisis

MTimT

NickPalmer said:

Political life beyond Brexit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/us/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-kamala-elizabeth-warren.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Nick, thanks for breaking with the unremitting Brexit stuff.

I was also going to post anecdotally what I feel has been a qualitative change in the atmosphere here since the shutdown and Syria decisions. Not only do you have
- the most populist part of Fox News (Fox and Friends) challenging the Syria decision as Obama-esque and rekindling ISIS, but now you have
- the Washington Times (very right wing) saying that Trump does not understand what split government means but is will be good for him and you have
- The Hill (right of centre) calling the shutdown a Trump-made mess. Finally, we have
- growing talk outside the anti-Trump-obsessed CNN (USA) and MSNBC about this Presidency ending in jail time. There is very little talk of a second Trump presidency.

Make of this what you will re betting for primaries, Trump leave date and other betting. But I think things have fundamentally shifted in the last two weeks.

Benpointer

NickPalmer said:

Political life beyond Brexit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/us/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-kamala-elizabeth-warren.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Yes, but that's not really a very good argument, is it? Remain would have won if a large number of groups hadn't voted the other way?

It's like saying get rid of Scotland and Leave won a landslide.

I suggest that it is highly relevant that a significant proportion of the leave vote came from people who have (or think they have) no real stake in the UK economy. Just look at all the expat leavers on here.

Unfortunately that is a non-sequitur of an argument as a democracy doesn't depend on economic activity. Moreover the retired and the unemployed often have a substantial stake in the economy given the nature of the services they need and use.

How many expat Leavers are there on here now? With Archer gone I can think of Sandpit and RCS1000, but hasn't Max moved back to the UK?

Didn't Archer come back under a new username?

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

The Conservatives will continue as a Leave-dominated party, or will be replaced by one.

Yes, but that was the case for decades past, during which we didn't take any meaningful steps in that direction.

Besides, if Brexit collapses, the Tories might find that their base is somewhat shrunken as a consequence.

But there is zero sign of Conservative voters from last time being interested in Labour or it's leader.

I don't agree. I'm very interested in Labour and its leader. In the same way I'm compulsively drawn to rubberneck at motorway pileups.

Andrew

FrancisUrquhart said:

I hope all pbers had a good Xmas and of course found time to watch the undisputed king of Xmas movies, Die Hard.

Bad Santa, surely.

AlastairMeeks

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

You don’t think that someone who has had to move country twice to flee tyranny might not be a little unsettled to be told, in his 80s and after 60 years in the country, that he has to apply to stay here or risk deportation? Given this country’s track record of creating a hostile environment even for those entitled to be here, it would be understandable to be stressed to high hell.

MTimT

Benpointer said:

How many expat Leavers are there on here now? With Archer gone I can think of Sandpit and RCS1000, but hasn't Max moved back to the UK?

And occasionally MTimT

Theuniondivvie

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Students are not economically active, and they were about 80% Remain.

Students are a lot more economically active than they used to be, and are paying/borrowing quite a lot of money to become the highly economically active tax payers of tomorrow.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

How many expat Leavers are there on here now? With Archer gone I can think of Sandpit and RCS1000, but hasn't Max moved back to the UK?

Didn't Archer come back under a new username?

Not to my knowledge, but not being a mod I could be wrong.

I checked out the person I think you might be referring to though and he registered a fortnight before Archer had his meltdown.

FrancisUrquhart

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

You don’t think that someone who has had to move country twice to flee tyranny might not be a little unsettled to be told, in his 80s and after 60 years in the country, that he has to apply to stay here or risk deportation? Given this country’s track record of creating a hostile environment even for those entitled to be here, it would be understandable to be stressed to high hell.

Unless the government are telling massive lies it is going to be akin to filling in a form for a passport or driving licence renewal, not applying for a us green card.

There is zero question that people such as the one mentioned in the tweet will be unaffected if they / loved ones spent a few minutes filling in the form.

ydoethur

MTimT said:

And occasionally MTimT

Occasionally active, or occasionally expat?

MJW

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Deservedly unforgiving:

https://twitter.com/Jonscoasting/status/1078953145760395264

I usually think the Spectator is a job creation scheme for wealthy people too repellent to hold down a job with normal people (eg Rod Liddle). But that's a good article from James Kirkup, and his colleague James Forsyth is good also.

It is a good article - but I think it does leave out one big thing - that it's arguably not a failure of campaigning but ultimately of leadership. May had the opportunity in 2016 to face down the ERG extremists, reassure pragmatic remainers Brexit wasn't going to be a massive disaster , and bring the majority of the country together around a fairly soft Brexit that most wouldn't have as their preference - but that was the only way of not entrenching divisions.

Corbyn has failed to provide leadership because rather than stepping in and doing that, he has promoted his own fantasy version of cake and eat it Brexit for reasons of political expediency. His other alternative would have been to provide leadership to a remain campaign that could possibly have changed minds. It's all very well mocking flag-waving People's Vote campaigners as the eccentric face of remain obsessives that don't get Brexit, but the reason those people feel the need to march and be so vocal about their passion for the cause is that there's no active frontline politician making their case and seriously trying to shift things. People, particularly Corbynites, whinge about Blair popping up to comment on Brexit, but the reason he does so and gets called by producers is that there is that there's a vacuum of leadership on the left spelling out what Brexit means and the choices people on the left face.

This is also of course a failure of Vince Cable.

Finally, you have the well documented failure of the ERG Brexiteers, who were like the dog who chased the car and didn't know what to do next. They've never provided the leadership that could unite people around a plausible plan that came close to satisfying their claims.

So, we're largely stuck. As the vacuum of leadership is filled by the angry voices of those who can't change opinion or facts to bring about their desired outcome, but need to vent about it.

MTimT

MJW said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Deservedly unforgiving:

https://twitter.com/Jonscoasting/status/1078953145760395264

I usually think the Spectator is a job creation scheme for wealthy people too repellent to hold down a job with normal people (eg Rod Liddle). But that's a good article from James Kirkup, and his colleague James Forsyth is good also.

It is a good article - but I think it does leave out one big thing - that it's arguably not a failure of campaigning but ultimately of leadership. May had the opportunity in 2016 to face down the ERG extremists, reassure pragmatic remainers Brexit wasn't going to be a massive disaster , and bring the majority of the country together around a fairly soft Brexit that most wouldn't have as their preference - but that was the only way of not entrenching divisions.

Corbyn has failed to provide leadership because rather than stepping in and doing that, he has promoted his own fantasy version of cake and eat it Brexit for reasons of political expediency. His other alternative would have been to provide leadership to a remain campaign that could possibly have changed minds. It's all very well mocking flag-waving People's Vote campaigners as the eccentric face of remain obsessives that don't get Brexit, but the reason those people feel the need to march and be so vocal about their passion for the cause is that there's no active frontline politician making their case and seriously trying to shift things. People, particularly Corbynites, whinge about Blair popping up to comment on Brexit, but the reason he does so and gets called by producers is that there is that there's a vacuum of leadership on the left spelling out what Brexit means and the choices people on the left face.

This is also of course a failure of Vince Cable.

Finally, you have the well documented failure of the ERG Brexiteers, who were like the dog who chased the car and didn't know what to do next. They've never provided the leadership that could unite people around a plausible plan that came close to satisfying their claims.

So, we're largely stuck. As the vacuum of leadership is filled by the angry voices of those who can't change opinion or facts to bring about their desired outcome, but need to vent about it.

Very well said

AlastairMeeks

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

You don’t think that someone who has had to move country twice to flee tyranny might not be a little unsettled to be told, in his 80s and after 60 years in the country, that he has to apply to stay here or risk deportation? Given this country’s track record of creating a hostile environment even for those entitled to be here, it would be understandable to be stressed to high hell.

Unless the government are telling massive lies it is going to be akin to filling in a form for a passport or driving licence renewal, not applying for a us green card.

There is zero question that people such as the one mentioned in the tweet will be unaffected if they / loved ones spent a few minutes filling in the form.

And are you going to be deporting frail elderly people without loved ones? If not, why are you bothering any of them?

Benpointer

Recidivist said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Recidivist said:

kyf_100 said:

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

Third - like the third referendum we'll have if we have a second

But how? If we vote to leave under the deal, the quest to rejoin will be set back for a generation. If we vote to remain, no-one will want to hear from the Brexiters again for a generation. I genuinely don't see how a people's vote won't settle the matter, in practice, unless there is a ridiculously narrow result.

If we vote to remain, I'll vote for any party that promises a third referendum or to take us out of the EU without one, regardless of how odious I find any of their other policies. I reckon such a party would gain the support of a quarter of the electorate, based on that YouGov poll of a couple of weeks ago. A second referendum will solve nothing. The country is ungovernable without the support of people who demand the result of the 2016 referendum is implemented.

The bulk of the leave vote were economically inactive people, like my father in law. He's a fine guy in his own way, but the country will certainly function without him.

That's a bold statement.

I would have said staff at my school were split 50/50.

Almost all the teachers and a handful of administrators went for Remain.

The other staff by and large went for Leave.

I appreciate it may vary by area.

He's right, though, I strongly suspect - drop out the retired, the obscenely wealthy, and the unemployed - and I would wager remain had a clear majority.

Students are not economically active, and they were about 80% Remain.

Multiply by the turnout percentage, though.

I was talking to my brother's youngest last night, who feels the older generation has stuffed his own. But he admitted he didn't vote in 2016, has never voted in any election, and - most peculiarly - probably wouldn't bother if there was a people's vote.

Which punches a hole in the 'you can't complain if you don't vote' line. It turns out people can and frequently do.

Still, once we become Singapore-on-Thames compulsory voting will probably be introduced as part of a swathe of Singaporean measures.

kinabalu

ydoethur said:

Well, first of all Education Secretary is a job that's usually seen as a stepping stone to something 'better,' so the incumbents tend to spend more time shrieking good tabloid slogans rather than dealing with the actual problems. Morgan and Balls spring to mind. Gove, to his credit, was not of that disposition but unfortunately having correctly identified the problems he came up with solutions that while not themselves necessarily wrong were badly implemented and eventually disastrous.

In my mother's 39 year teaching career, she could think of one Secretary of State she liked - John Macgregor, who was at least willing to talk to teachers rather than shout and scream and swear at them. He didn't last though. Interestingly among my few veteran colleagues that's a name that comes up unprompted as well. Estelle Morris had the understanding but nowhere near the political skill. Can't even remember who the current encumbrance is, so he's probably better than average. Blunkett and Clarke were thugs and ideologues. Johnson was amiable but unimaginative.

So in my experience of education by far the best SOS was Greening, and I'm still furious she got the sack.

As is she, I think. Her animus towards May is too obvious to be purely about policy.

Morris was very unusual for a politician in that she did a Kevin Keegan*, resigning because she herself decided that she was not up to the job. Honourable.

Anyway, thanks, very interesting. Education suffers IMO from being a topic which everyone thinks they understand very well and can therefore sort out.

* Kevin is reluctantly supporting the Deal, I understand. Does not like the Backstop but is prepared to accept the need for it, given the troubled history of relations between the UK and Ireland.

MTimT

ydoethur said:

MTimT said:

And occasionally MTimT

Occasionally active, or occasionally expat?

LOL. I have lived in the UK only 30% of my life, but a further 40% has been overseas in either British colonies or Sovereign Base Areas, or elsewhere on HMG business.

FrancisUrquhart

AlastairMeeks said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

You don’t think that someone who has had to move country twice to flee tyranny might not be a little unsettled to be told, in his 80s and after 60 years in the country, that he has to apply to stay here or risk deportation? Given this country’s track record of creating a hostile environment even for those entitled to be here, it would be understandable to be stressed to high hell.

Unless the government are telling massive lies it is going to be akin to filling in a form for a passport or driving licence renewal, not applying for a us green card.

There is zero question that people such as the one mentioned in the tweet will be unaffected if they / loved ones spent a few minutes filling in the form.

And are you going to be deporting frail elderly people without loved ones? If not, why are you bothering any of them?

They already have to apply for things to remain on the right side of the law. Are we going to say well you say you are over 70, so we don’t need to worry about you ever filling in a form for eg driving licence or passport renewal.

Part of the reason we had the mess with windrush was because the state didn’t keep proper records.

ydoethur

kinabalu said:

Anyway, thanks, very interesting. Education suffers IMO from being a topic which everyone thinks they understand very well and can therefore sort out.

The other problem is it is a subject everyone is very interested in, for good reasons, but also always convinced is going wrong. It's not like Defence or transport or even pensions where it's possible to get away with soft-pedalling for a while. As a result it's rare for policy to be well thought through and with an eye to the long term - or to have input from practical experts.

matt

@MJW. “So, we're largely stuck. As the vacuum of leadership is filled by the angry voices of those who can't change opinion or facts to bring about their desired outcome, but need to vent about it.”

Look at the comments here, the comments in The Times (one wonders what non-subscription newspaper comments are like). The Internet has democratised howling at the moon.

notme2

NickPalmer said:

Political life beyond Brexit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/us/politics/2020-democratic-candidates-kamala-elizabeth-warren.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

" “When it comes to women and women of color, so many of them are going to want to see that the candidate is not just hiring women but really paying attention to them when they’re giving advice.”"

Those native americans are going to be super pleased theyll finally have one of their own with Elizabath Warren. A modern day Pocahontas.

Trump is going to be looking forward to his re-election, while the Dems crawl up each other's bottoms as to see who can be the most cringeworthy and right on with their identity politics.

Benpointer

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

You don’t think that someone who has had to move country twice to flee tyranny might not be a little unsettled to be told, in his 80s and after 60 years in the country, that he has to apply to stay here or risk deportation? Given this country’s track record of creating a hostile environment even for those entitled to be here, it would be understandable to be stressed to high hell.

Unless the government are telling massive lies it is going to be akin to filling in a form for a passport or driving licence renewal, not applying for a us green card.

There is zero question that people such as the one mentioned in the tweet will be unaffected if they / loved ones spent a few minutes filling in the form.

And are you going to be deporting frail elderly people without loved ones? If not, why are you bothering any of them?

They already have to apply for things to remain on the right side of the law. Are we going to say well you say you are over 70, so we don’t need to worry about you ever filling in a form for eg driving licence or passport renewal.

Part of the reason we had the mess with windrush was because the state didn’t keep proper records.

How long will it be before a few millitant 80-somethings refuse to do this and challenge the government to deport them? It's a classic example of the piss-poor political judgement of this government.

AlastairMeeks

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

These instances still keep emerging, and it’s only been a day. Still, these old people have to be frightened to secure Brexit, it’s The Only Way:

https://twitter.com/joshfeldberg/status/1078772513377845248?s=21

How exactly is he being frightened?

You don’t think that someone who has had to move country twice to flee tyranny might not be a little unsettled to be told, in his 80s and after 60 years in the country, that he has to apply to stay here or risk deportation? Given this country’s track record of creating a hostile environment even for those entitled to be here, it would be understandable to be stressed to high hell.

Unless the government are telling massive lies it is going to be akin to filling in a form for a passport or driving licence renewal, not applying for a us green card.

There is zero question that people such as the one mentioned in the tweet will be unaffected if they / loved ones spent a few minutes filling in the form.

And are you going to be deporting frail elderly people without loved ones? If not, why are you bothering any of them?

They already have to apply for things to remain on the right side of the law. Are we going to say well you say you are over 70, so we don’t need to worry about you ever filling in a form for eg driving licence or passport renewal.

Part of the reason we had the mess with windrush was because the state didn’t keep proper records.

You would arrest anyone driving without a driving licence. Are you going to deport anyone elderly who has been here for many years who had not applied for permission to remain? If not, you’re just frightening people and wasting everyone’s time.

Chris

On topic, isn't it interesting that over the last 6 weeks or so, the sum of the implied probabilities for a referendum before 2020 and Brexit on time has dropped from about 100% to about 80%?

If that's correct, what does it represent? An increase in the likelihood of revocation without a referendum? Or in the likelihood of an extension for a general election (also without a referendum)? Or the likelihood of an extension for more negotiation even in the absence of either a referendum or an election?

Or have the betting markets lost contact with reality, then and/or now?