This Christmas I’ve been reading a history of the Black Death (to cheer me up after all the talk about Brexit).
PBS had an interesting documentary about it the other day. Argued that it wasn’t pneumatic bubonic plague as everyone assumed.
Case they made - I’d say it was intriguing and worthy of more work but unproven - was for haemorrhagic fever (aka Ebola)
Somewhat implausible. Ebola (at least as it is currently) is way too virulent to be a reasonable candidate for a global pandemic.
Anyone who's played Pandemic and successfully wiped out all life on Earth knows the key to a good bio-armageddon is a pathogen that (a) is highly infectious, (b) has a long incubation period, (c) is asymptomatic until very late in the infection, and (d) has vector of infection that is widely coterminous with human populations.
Ebola meets 0/4 of those, whereas Plague scores 4 for 4.
This Christmas I’ve been reading a history of the Black Death (to cheer me up after all the talk about Brexit).
PBS had an interesting documentary about it the other day. Argued that it wasn’t pneumatic bubonic plague as everyone assumed.
Case they made - I’d say it was intriguing and worthy of more work but unproven - was for haemorrhagic fever (aka Ebola)
Somewhat implausible. Ebola (at least as it is currently) is way too virulent to be a reasonable candidate for a global pandemic.
Anyone who's played Pandemic and successfully wiped out all life on Earth knows the key to a good bio-armageddon is a pathogen that (a) is highly infectious, (b) has a long incubation period, (c) is asymptomatic until very late in the infection, and (d) has vector of infection that is widely coterminous with human populations.
Ebola meets 0/4 of those, whereas Plague scores 4 for 4.
Transmission via human to human contact or animal to human contact (and highly infectious at that point). Studies for the funeral records for Eyam in Derbyshire suggest clear pattern of victim>>cousin (regardless of physical residence) and victim>>neighbour for Black Death which is suggestive of contact rather than an independent vector
Incubation period up to 21 days during which period people are asymptomatic (but non infectious). Potentially explains passage of disease through relatively unpopulated and *rat free* areas such as Northern England
I would say Ebola hits 4/4 of your criteria
However PBS only said it was haemorrhagic fever of which Ebola is the best known.
FWIW I think it’s more likely to be a Marburg relative myself. Ebola virus mortality rates are only around 25-40%, while Marburg can be 25-99%. Estimates around 50-60% of the population were killed by the Black Death
Interesting - my first ever argument with my mother in law was on this very subject.
My in laws owned their place (with a mortgage)
My parents lived in a council house - but my father was earning full time and mum worked part time.
My mother in law thought that people who could afford places should free up council housing for those who couldn't.
In hindsight, I was probably wrong and she was right.
It depends what you think council housing is for, doesn't it? If one sees it as a safety net for people who are hard up, then your mother-in-law was right. If one sees it as provision of decent standard housing for those who don't want to buy, then probably not. A snag about the former position is that it implicitly labels anyone in a council house as a failure, or at least as someone who hasn't yet "made it". A snag about the latter position is that with any realistic level of council housing after the effects of Right to Buy, there won't be enough to meet demand from people who are indeed hard up, so it should be left to them.
Personally I'd like to see the Continental model of a large rental sector (I don't much care whether it's state-run, but historically the state rented sector has tended to have higher standards than cheap private lets) with affordable rents but no right to buy, providing the default option. Buying a house is then seen as a possible additional goal in life, as an alternative to other ways to spend or save your money, but not something we all need to aspire to.
Interesting - my first ever argument with my mother in law was on this very subject.
My in laws owned their place (with a mortgage)
My parents lived in a council house - but my father was earning full time and mum worked part time.
My mother in law thought that people who could afford places should free up council housing for those who couldn't.
In hindsight, I was probably wrong and she was right.
It depends what you think council housing is for, doesn't it? If one sees it as a safety net for people who are hard up, then your mother-in-law was right. If one sees it as provision of decent standard housing for those who don't want to buy, then probably not. A snag about the former position is that it implicitly labels anyone in a council house as a failure, or at least as someone who hasn't yet "made it". A snag about the latter position is that with any realistic level of council housing after the effects of Right to Buy, there won't be enough to meet demand from people who are indeed hard up, so it should be left to them.
Personally I'd like to see the Continental model of a large rental sector (I don't much care whether it's state-run, but historically the state rented sector has tended to have higher standards than cheap private lets) with affordable rents but no right to buy, providing the default option. Buying a house is then seen as a possible additional goal in life, as an alternative to other ways to spend or save your money, but not something we all need to aspire to.
Going back to the 1960s and 1970s I recall schoolmasters at my local Grammar School who lived in council housing- and continued to do so into retirement.Quite a few other middle class professional people did likewise. There was much less of an assumption that if a person had a reasonable income that they would choose to become home owners.
Interesting - my first ever argument with my mother in law was on this very subject.
My in laws owned their place (with a mortgage)
My parents lived in a council house - but my father was earning full time and mum worked part time.
My mother in law thought that people who could afford places should free up council housing for those who couldn't.
In hindsight, I was probably wrong and she was right.
It depends what you think council housing is for, doesn't it? If one sees it as a safety net for people who are hard up, then your mother-in-law was right. If one sees it as provision of decent standard housing for those who don't want to buy, then probably not. A snag about the former position is that it implicitly labels anyone in a council house as a failure, or at least as someone who hasn't yet "made it". A snag about the latter position is that with any realistic level of council housing after the effects of Right to Buy, there won't be enough to meet demand from people who are indeed hard up, so it should be left to them.
Personally I'd like to see the Continental model of a large rental sector (I don't much care whether it's state-run, but historically the state rented sector has tended to have higher standards than cheap private lets) with affordable rents but no right to buy, providing the default option. Buying a house is then seen as a possible additional goal in life, as an alternative to other ways to spend or save your money, but not something we all need to aspire to.
It is interesting
TBH my father feared taking that leap to being a property owner, at least until he could afford to buy outright.
I think he was wrong to fear the leap into home ownership - and owing money to a lender.
We certainly were not well off, but we were not poor either.
I remember when I left home and purchased he thought I was mad (to have the debt).
Being older myself now with a well paid job I have to say that with waiting lists as they are and an obvious need it is wrong to clog up social housing if you could afford to stand on your own two feet,.
I may be old fashioned but I think those of us that are financially secure enough to stand on our own should do so, the state provision should be there for those who actually need it.
It depends what you think council housing is for, doesn't it? If one sees it as a safety net for people who are hard up, then your mother-in-law was right. If one sees it as provision of decent standard housing for those who don't want to buy, then probably not. A snag about the former position is that it implicitly labels anyone in a council house as a failure, or at least as someone who hasn't yet "made it". A snag about the latter position is that with any realistic level of council housing after the effects of Right to Buy, there won't be enough to meet demand from people who are indeed hard up, so it should be left to them.
Personally I'd like to see the Continental model of a large rental sector (I don't much care whether it's state-run, but historically the state rented sector has tended to have higher standards than cheap private lets) with affordable rents but no right to buy, providing the default option. Buying a house is then seen as a possible additional goal in life, as an alternative to other ways to spend or save your money, but not something we all need to aspire to.
It is interesting
TBH my father feared taking that leap to being a property owner, at least until he could afford to buy outright.
I think he was wrong to fear the leap into home ownership - and owing money to a lender.
We certainly were not well off, but we were not poor either.
I remember when I left home and purchased he thought I was mad (to have the debt).
Being older myself now with a well paid job I have to say that with waiting lists as they are and an obvious need it is wrong to clog up social housing if you could afford to stand on your own two feet,.
I may be old fashioned but I think those of us that are financially secure enough to stand on our own should do so, the state provision should be there for those who actually need it.
It is surely not old-fashioned if, as this thread seems to demonstrate, that view has only taken hold after the 1980s.
Happy Christmas everyone, and thanks once again to StJohn for the crossword.
Seconded. And particular thanks for his detailed solutions, on behalf of the challenged amongst us.
Tremendous fun, though I could not help noticing some pb regulars stayed away, presumably to make us think they had friends, families and, well, lives!
This Christmas I’ve been reading a history of the Black Death (to cheer me up after all the talk about Brexit).
The Black Death only killed 25% of the population of Europe.
But it didn't give us Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The Black Death was therefore better than Brexit.
Actually although records are very far from complete most studies put mortality at nearer 40%.
With regard to what it was, I've seen dozens of different theories including smallpox and anthrax. But academics keep coming back to bubonic and pneumonic plague (which are somewhat different diseases caused by the same pathogen).
Comments
The Serkis version of Theresa May was so much better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NpExkViy6M&t=3s
Case they made - I’d say it was intriguing and worthy of more work but unproven - was for haemorrhagic fever (aka Ebola)
But it didn't give us Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The Black Death was therefore better than Brexit.
Anyone who's played Pandemic and successfully wiped out all life on Earth knows the key to a good bio-armageddon is a pathogen that (a) is highly infectious, (b) has a long incubation period, (c) is asymptomatic until very late in the infection, and (d) has vector of infection that is widely coterminous with human populations.
Ebola meets 0/4 of those, whereas Plague scores 4 for 4.
Can't make an omlette without breaking a few eggs. A bit tough on the eggs though...
["Extreme Ways" starts, credits roll...]
Incubation period up to 21 days during which period people are asymptomatic (but non infectious). Potentially explains passage of disease through relatively unpopulated and *rat free* areas such as Northern England
I would say Ebola hits 4/4 of your criteria
However PBS only said it was haemorrhagic fever of which Ebola is the best known.
FWIW I think it’s more likely to be a Marburg relative myself. Ebola virus mortality rates are only around 25-40%, while Marburg can be 25-99%. Estimates around 50-60% of the population were killed by the Black Death
Just finished clearing up, and had time to peruse this Guardian opinion leave, which is unusually readable:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/25/break-brexit-deadlock-ancient-athens-sortition
And provides a classical alternative to Boris Johnson.
And particular thanks for his detailed solutions, on behalf of the challenged amongst us.
Interesting - my first ever argument with my mother in law was on this very subject.
My in laws owned their place (with a mortgage)
My parents lived in a council house - but my father was earning full time and mum worked part time.
My mother in law thought that people who could afford places should free up council housing for those who couldn't.
In hindsight, I was probably wrong and she was right.
Personally I'd like to see the Continental model of a large rental sector (I don't much care whether it's state-run, but historically the state rented sector has tended to have higher standards than cheap private lets) with affordable rents but no right to buy, providing the default option. Buying a house is then seen as a possible additional goal in life, as an alternative to other ways to spend or save your money, but not something we all need to aspire to.
TBH my father feared taking that leap to being a property owner, at least until he could afford to buy outright.
I think he was wrong to fear the leap into home ownership - and owing money to a lender.
We certainly were not well off, but we were not poor either.
I remember when I left home and purchased he thought I was mad (to have the debt).
Being older myself now with a well paid job I have to say that with waiting lists as they are and an obvious need it is wrong to clog up social housing if you could afford to stand on your own two feet,.
I may be old fashioned but I think those of us that are financially secure enough to stand on our own should do so, the state provision should be there for those who actually need it.
Germany has a large rented sector, and its economy is stronger than ours. The two are not necessarily related but rented homes do afford greater labour market flexibility as it is easier for workers to get on their bikes, to quote Norman Tebbit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatlife/11417359/Germany-the-country-where-renting-is-a-dream.html
As a complete novice, I got a few right and a few wrong with the aid of this guide to crosswords.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/sep/12/how-to-solve-cryptic-crossword-clues
With regard to what it was, I've seen dozens of different theories including smallpox and anthrax. But academics keep coming back to bubonic and pneumonic plague (which are somewhat different diseases caused by the same pathogen).