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On the day of this month’s confidence vote amongst Tory MPs on Theresa May the PM declared that it was her intention not to lead the party into the next general election. If we stick with the Fixed Term Parliament Act timetable that means any time before the spring of 2022.
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By all means remove the subsidies on immigration, but the government shouldn't be making minor economic decisions for its citizens. If people preferred an automatic car wash, or it was meaningfully cheaper, then they would choose it.
*T&C apply.
Agree with OGH that May is no quitter - I suspect in the end the Tories will do what they did to Thatcher and oust her - but she has to become a liability first.
Off topic - he’s tweeting again!
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1077064829825966081?s=21
No mention of the US’s allies, the Kurds. Odd that.
Either way we’ll only really know when Labour replace Corbyn - which may have got closer after this weekend.
Going back to the election and Corbyn himself as well as the manifesto/policies which is a result of Corbyn leading the party were responsible for a huge percentage of the votes Labour received in the election, 41% for specifically that according to YouGov, and other categories which overlap with Corbyn and his policies make up a decent percentage of the rest.
In terms of vote share Corbyn led Labour saw the biggest Labour increase since Atlee in WW2, which itself was rather special circumstances. The polling on Labour has largely stayed around that level or a little under despite some quite negative criticism in the media since then.
That another Labour leader could have Labour doing so well right now is up for question let alone have the party actually performing better. The hypothetical new leader wouldn't have the anti Corbyn press on their side in the same way they do now. Corbyn wouldn't be a problem anymore, they would be the problem. They would be the one with crazy left wing policies that wouldn't work.
They could avoid some of that my dashing to the right with the Labour party... that party isn't winning anywhere near the support of the current Labour party though.
On topic, whilst there do seem to be good reasons to argue she will go nobody should be too surprised if May is still in charge by the end of next year.
If May does not get her deal through, then the kaleidoscope gets a good shake and the view will be very different anyway.
The 12 months security of tenure is a red herring. If she doesn't have the backing of Cabinet, she is a goner. And I don't see a route to her having that backing in 12 months time. Not when so many of them want her job.
As for keeping Boris Johnson out of Number 10, the longer she stays, the more he risks being vindicated in his vassal-state assessment of the post-May's Deal UK. And the more likely the membership are to see him as the person they want supervising our trading arrangements with the EU.
Assuming he wants the job. His saying he would not stand immediately pulls the rug out from under May, as the Stop Boris rationale for her limpet existence runs out of road. If so - let the games begin.
I don't think Labour voters would vote for Labour with Mrs May as leader, do we have evidence of a different leader of Labour boosting their vote or any kind of evidence at all of the repeated Corbyn being a drag on the Labour vote line?
On the side of May staying is the consideration that whatever drove Theresa May to enter politics, as an activist, councillor, MP and now prime minister, Brexit was not it.
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In total, Labour needs to gain 64 new seats (and retain its current ones) to win an overall majority. The smoothest path runs through the 76 seats where Labour is behind the opposition by less than 10 percentage points. 42 of these voted Leave (with a 59% Leave vote, on average), and 36 voted Remain (with a 61% Remain vote, on average).
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This will have different effects depending on when or why the election is. If May holds one soon in which she is pushing her deal then that isn't something leavers are not united behind.
When you think of polling changes since the referendum I suspect there is probably a slight remain lean overall in Labours target seats but not an obvious fight Brexit bonus waiting for us. It would suggest Corbyn's strategy is sensible for now.
There is a small chance that asking a random man in a street a question might not produce a representative answer... specifically if ordinary man in the street is repeatedly white people over the age of 50, many of who don't like him*... but they mostly already have their own party called the Conservatives. Labour is the party for many of us who don't qualify as ordinary man in the street.
*So it is representative but of its own group only not the rest of us.
40% of Labour supporters are dissatisfied.
Yet when the campaign starts and people get to hear Labours offer because the rules kick in around TV coverage people start reading it and liking it. In the intervening years between elections the groups supportive of Corbyn are more likely to switch off or become 'Don't knows' and the coverage of Labour and Corbyn in the media is overwhelmingly negative.
It is all well and good to assert that Corbyn actually drags Labour down but our actual electoral evidence shows the opposite, we have very little proof that a different Labour leader would be doing as well let alone even better.
It may be convincing if Labour were crashing under Corbyn but it is exactly the opposite, Labour looked to have turned around and started going in the right direction electorally. Peoples complaints are the political direction.
You may choose to believe he will se a similar spike in the future, but I think he can no longer be the blank slate on which everyone can pin their hopes and dreams. His temporising on Brexit seems to hav e sunk in with the electorate. And the very recent efforts to prevent a referendum (which is an alternative called for by Labour policy) have seriously angered a significant number of supporters.
I didn't actually state what would happen with Corbyn's personal popularity numbers but I do suspect the right wing media campaign against him will somewhat fall apart when met with the reality of Corbyn once again, much like last time. There are a decent sized group that are dead set against him but referring back to what I was originally talking about in terms of Labour that doesn't actually matter so much. Most of the people who really don't like him are Conservative voters who were going to vote Conservative anyway.
My questioning of vox pops where angry gammon call Corbyn a cnut of epic proportions as unrepresentative is entirely valid, they are representative of the types of people they pick.
The same vox pop method of discovering what was happening found plenty of 'I've always voted Labour but I can't vote Labour again' before the 2017 election. What happened?
Labours vote went up hugely. They are unrepresentative.
Also I listened to an interesting episode of polling matters not long ago where they talked about the Don't Know groups tending to be younger and more female... groups that also tend Labour and Corbyn.
There is also the lack of polling showing some great alertanate leader doing better. If it was so obvious why do we not have this proof? There was a poll a long time ago before GE17 when Corbyn was doing badly which showed him around the level or beating potential replacements.
'Blind faith'
hmm... I suspect yours is the blind faith, not only does the idea of Labour doing better under a different leader lack evidence it also seems to fly in the face of the evidence available.
People want a different leader so they assert an electoral argument for doing so without actually doing any work to prove one.
That is, of course, why gambling!
In the meantime 2019 looks set to be a very busy political year. The fact of Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling unpopularity with the bulk of the population may well have consequences in the political decision-making process all by itself.
Labour did particularly well last time by pulling in much of the previous and potential support from the LibDems. If they go chasing Leave voters that process could very easily unwind.
It doesn't matter if the entire Conservative and UKIP vote doesn't like him, or if half the Lib Dems can't stand him. The only thing that matter in terms him leading Labour being a plus or a negative is getting more people to vote Labour and on that count he has been successful and there is no evidence to suggest somebody else (note: Theresa May would not get as many votes as Labour leader) would do as well let alone better.
In terms of Labour attracting those that didn't vote Labour I imagine there are more leavers than remainers that might be willing to do so in the seats Labour needs to win. Coming out for a 2nd referendum, if we do, too soon could put off those people.
Labour are polling ok because the Conservatives are truly appalling. But even then they lag the Tories in mid term against a government that barely exists. You should consider the possibility that your hero is the problem.
Didn’t win the last general election though, now, did you?
As for the electorate at large, people are partisan, look at America and how awful Trump is but he and the Republicans still have massive support like the Tories and May still retain support here. The constant negative media doesn't help, but it is something that thanks to the TV rules changes in election time. There is also more attention paid to policies where Labour polls well.
Also people keep avoiding how you even replace all the votes lost by replacing Corbyn before you even go about getting more. At some point you have to consider that whilst he wouldn't be your first choice there is a reason why Corbyn keeps doing better than he should.
Mogg might have made a total pratt of himself recently but the Tories need someone with a lot more charisma than May and someone with a much broader policy horizon than Brexit, important though Brexit is. The Tories also need someone who is not a control freak in charge. A new leader would get rid of all the dead wood like Grayling, Smith, Clark, Hunt, etc
I suppose it’s all going to come down to whether she gets her deal. If she loses that, she’ll lose the subsequent VONC. If she wins she has a chance of surviving. Personally, I hope her deal gets well beaten. It’s a terrible deal.
May and Brexit will probably not be there for Corbyn next time. He will campaign well, but will need fresh ideas in a new manifesto. No evidence of them so far. He also has done nothing to stop people voting against him. Arguably he is more antagonistic today than he was in 2017. He is certainly less likely to surprise.
I could be wrong, but he seems weaker now.
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1076803813946900480?s=21
Corbyn needs her vote.
A narrow loss followed by a no deal pivot could see Tory remainers VONC her; a narrow loss followed by a 2nd referendum pivot probably sees her resign.
Her surviving is the sum of the DUP not VONCing her in the event of the deal passing (Or being saved by Woodcock and a couple of others !), her being too stubborn to resign if she gets thrashed; Tory remainers being frit to VONC her in a no deal pivot and May wanting to fight the 'deal/leave' cause in another referendum.
Sounds like a winning bet, Mr. Pulpstar.
I had a couple of little ones on her going in Q1 and Q2 but managed to hedge.
Follow the Trump strategy. Polarise the campaign and try to win on differential turnout, by firing the base to extreme levels, squish out rational debate and do just enough to get the centrists out to vote against the Tories as the lesser of two evils.
Or the Blair/Cameron approach, win your core and the centre.
We know which way he will go. Sad.
I believe Labour will change policy on Brexit* (or I think it's likely anyway) They will run on policies that are generally popular among the left and some centrists. He is more of a known quantity which presents a slightly different set of challenges and advantages some good and some bad.
*Or shift through the options in line with their current policy if you prefer.
If she does get the deal through there are going to be a lot of unhappy remainers in the country plus an unhappy DUP. Governing is not going to be easy. We will no doubt have arguments about whether GDP growth on a quarterly basis would have been a tenth or two higher. I suspect most will pay little attention to that but the Commons will be restless and unpredictable.
May would want a chance to be seen to do something about the rest of her agenda, threadbare though that appears. Whether her party is minded to let her is another question. Overall, I think I would have been looking for slightly better odds than Mike got on this.
As for celebrity endorsements I'm sure they can make a difference but they are often the backers of losing causes. I feel like the Democrats under Clinton had the celebrity backers as well as Remain during the referendum.
However, Corbyn disappoints me by encouraging a situation where his support acts like a cult. He has some very extreme people around him. Their attitude against their enemies is something I cannot support. His Labour is like a religion, a battle of good vs. evil. I find that it appalling that a Labour CoE talks about insurrection. His policy platform is too backward looking. All together a bit too Trumpian for my taste.
I prefer a broader church that tries new ideas. At the moment Labour is still the best of a bad bunch. But it’s getting close.
That’s me, a Labour member since 1992.
Now we have the country as deeply divided as I can recall, a zombified government desperately trying to deal with Brexit to the exclusion of pretty much everything else, a crisis that rolls on and on till everyone not on PB is bored to tears with it and an opposition that is about the only thing imaginable that could make the government look good.
The idea, as Alastair commented earlier, that 2019 is offering more of the same is profoundly depressing.
I said I'm happy with unsubsidised migration. I already said if anyone wants to come to this country, obey our laws, pay our taxes and not receive any welfare then I welcome them. I don't care in what quantity this occurs, or what ethnicity or anything else. I'm very liberal for unsubsidised migration.
My point wasn't that the government should prevent jobs from being done, my point was that
if the pool of unskilled labour doesn't grow due to free movement and subsidies then supply and demand will see which jobs need doing and which don't. If there's more demand than supply then price increases (more wages for the unskilled) until we reach an equilibrium.
Despite all the criticism of May, the Tory vote share was pretty healthy last time, and I would put money on it going down next time. As is usual for all governments, let alone failing ones.
What the stubborn Remainers (and that included the EU) wanted was delay at all costs. It was always going to be difficult to disentangle 45 years of gradual but steady ntanglement, and delay was their friend. Time then for revocation, another referendum or a continuation of Project Fear to become embedded.
Anti-democratic without doubt, but that didn't matter. What could they lose? Bureaucrats are very good at delaying and the EU was never in a hurry to lose billions in revenue. They are the Higg's Boson of politics, they add mass and turn progress into a wade through treacle.
Mrs May has bogged down as they planned.
Going forward will mean more entanglement, but this time, there'll be no more consultation. A once in a forty years referendum was a UK mistake and won't be repeated. You'll have a choice at most seats between Labour and Tory candidates, and both will probably be pro-EU. Unless you also have a LD in the mix, and they'll be even more pro-EU.
Some things are not for the common herd to decide, so suck it up and bend the knee.
The last survey before the GE had Corbyn on -11, May on -7 - a gap of 4 points.
The most recent survey has Corbyn on -32 and May on -22 - a gap of 10 points.
For perspective, before GE1997 Blair was on +22. Before GE2015 Miliband was on -19.
This story is in part the reason why US banks are having meetings with the Treasury Secretary so that they can be reassured.
It is worrying because the entire financial system is based on trust and confidence. Any problems in the US will rapidly affect us here.
Trump has upset the Iraqis and the Afghans, has likely made it easier for IS to regroup, has sold out the Kurds and is now, at best, careless of the effects his words can have on the financial system. Alastair is right. 2019 could easily look a whole load worse than 2018.
Net satisfied Labour VI Corbyn:
Jan: +48
Mar: +45
Apr: +26
May: +30
Jun: +25
Jul: +29
Nov: +9
For perspective May's November Satisfaction Rating was +35 - down 20 points on the start of the year - half Corbyn's slump, and up 15 points since her summer nadir.
If you had explained the state of UK politics and global diplomacy to someone in 2000, once you had got through explaining for the 12th time that this was not a Hollywood plot, they would have been shocked.
They would ask, what are you going to do about the crisis. A question to which, we can only say we are powerless observers. Shock would give way to horror.
Hopefully things will be ok. Brexit May yet turn out to be a damp squib, but things are set up in a very troubling way. 2019 could be catastrophic. The fact that’s a realistic chance, is already an indicator things have gone too far. And yet there is nothing we can do.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9
Is this a good bet to lay? I'm less convinced. I don't think anyone seriously believed May would lose the No Confidence vote in the Parliamentary party - the question was what level of opposition would preclude her from carrying on. I said 200 would be the benchmark and so it proved. I think had she got just 180 supporting her she would have been in a much weaker position.
Nonetheless, we have the WA next month and the critical question of alignment or re-alignment. Currently we have the Conservative Party as the party of LEAVE (all flavours apparently) and the LDs are clearly the party of REMAIN (via a second vote) but Labour's position remains unclear to this observer.
None of that alters the fact there are pro-REMAIN elements within the Conservative Party and a strong pro-REMAIN presence in the Labour Party. How these groups will respond if (or perhaps when) we exit the EU (on whatever basis) on 29/3 remains to be seen.
There is the option, once we've left, to pivot toward a policy of negotiated re-entry but there needs to be clarity on the terms acceptable - could we go back as we were, I can see why the UK would want that but less certain why the EU would. Returning to the EU would need a significant change in the political culture from being half-hearted mean-spirited rebate-obsessed members to being more enthusiastic supporters (including possibly the Euro and Schengen) and there's little prospect of that at this time.
As for May, the WA is critical - as I argued yesterday, she can carry on if it falls but she would then have to go for a managed No Deal which might risk a mutiny in the Cabinet (certainly some resignations). The alternative, revoking A50, would be political and electoral suicide for both her and the Conservative Party.
If we assume the 40% Conservative rating is propped up by both those supporting her because she is seeing through the referendum result and by those terrified of a Corbyn Government, one of those props will be knocked away when we do exit (on whatever terms). Were Labour to knock away the other prop, we might see the poll numbers shift abruptly.
If we do leave without a Deal and it turns out to be the near-extinction event some on here seem to peddle, the local elections (if we've time to vote between scavenging for rats and dodging feral packs of dogs in the ruins of our towns and cities as civilisation collapses because Waitrose has run out of avocadoes) may not be good for the Conservative Party which is defending over 5000 seats won at a high tide.
Whatever our difficulties we've yet to see rioting and deaths as they are experiencing in France, and unlike the US we don't have a monomaniacal leader who has lost all the adults in the room. Mutti is in for a bumpy ride too as the Chinese economy slows and they stop buying all that German manufacturing equipment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCZCv98XKFs
Show us how the UK stock market has changed over the last 30 months and then give the comparisons with Germany, France etc
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/
The Assad regime is every bit as brutal in its own way as ISIS.
If the Turks go after the Kurds, Europe could well see another wave of refugees next year.
https://www.politico.eu/article/tommy-robinson-ukip-uk-far-right-the-man-to-make-the-british-establishments-head-blow-off/
Time will tell how much ballot box support Yaxley Lennon can command - but as we're seeing in France 'under the radar social media' can have a disruptive influence.
As for it causing a wave of refugees through Europe; it might not. The Kurdish areas are away from the Mediterranean, and would have to pass through Assad-held territory. Likewise, the other easy route through Turkey will prove difficult for Kurds, especially non-Turkish kurds. Unless Assad or Erdogan want to cause mischief - but that might not be in their interests.
Instead, expect problems to spread to Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish areas, and for increased terrorism by the Kurdish PKK in Turkey itself. Which itself would play into Erdogan's hands ...
On January 3rd 2014, the FTSE 100 stood at 6730 - it is currently at 6682. That's a whole lot of nowhere in nearly five years.
The DJIA was 16470 on January 3rd 2014, it closed on Friday at 22445 which I make a 36.3% increase.
The DAX has gone from 9435 to 10633 in the same period - a more modest 12.7% increase.
She's staked everything on her deal. If it fails to pass (quite likely) then I think she'll be gone - whether this be 'No deal' or 'Remain', if her preferred option fails, then she's gone. We'll know this pretty soon (in the next three months).
If her deal passes, its either direct via the Commons, or failed at the Commons but 'passes' a referendum (somehow). This may give her a boost, but again I think she's now staking everything on the deal that as soon as it does pass, she'll think (or be told) 'Well done, job done, now bugger off thank you very much'.
I can't really see any route to her staying, unless she adopts an attitude of ignoring all events/advice and carrying on regardless (hmmm, now I see the flaw in my original thoughts). Perhaps some sort of sequence of events where she gets the deal through, and then is immediately forced into a General Election (perhaps the Labour Party do VoNC her government with DUP support)[1] which she is forced to fight and comes out against the odds with a majority after all (and perhaps a healthy one) such that her position has been personally vindicated (perhaps twice - once by referendum and again by GE) by the voters and therefore the Men in Grey Suits no longer feel able to shuffle her along.
[1] Corbyn, who I always suspected was a bit of an idiot has really disappointed me these last few weeks. Any other leader would've VoNCed the government - but Corbyn just loves harping from opposition. When faced with the prospect of actually taking power, and making decisions, he's completely unable to. JCWNBPM - not because he couldn't, but because if he ever found himself in that position of having won the General Election, he'd resign immediately as leader, just so he could go back to harping from the sidelines about how crap the government are.