The average of the Yougov and Opinium polls quoted earlier does not imply that much is shifting psephologically . A Tory lead of 1.5% would imply six Labour gains at Tory expense with a small number also falling to the Libdems. Tories would probably fall below 310 seats with DUP support no longer sufficient to continue in office.
The way labour are heading under Brexiteer Corbyn is only one way and it is not government
That view was even more widely held in April 2017 - including by myself. However, I was wrong!
Well they've not gotten into government yet, so you might not be totally wrong yet!
Oh I was proved totally wrong re-Corbyn leading Labour to disaster last year.
The average of the Yougov and Opinium polls quoted earlier does not imply that much is shifting psephologically . A Tory lead of 1.5% would imply six Labour gains at Tory expense with a small number also falling to the Libdems. Tories would probably fall below 310 seats with DUP support no longer sufficient to continue in office.
This is against one of the most chaotic governments in history, with a significantly unpopular prime minister.
As has been pointed out a squillion times, Labour should be polling 15-20 points ahead. It is frankly incredible that they are still behind. But then, Corbyn.
If he stays at the Labour helm, barring a Brexit Apocalypse and early GE, I think the Tories will win an overall majority in 2022, under a new leader.
If they can manage a soft Brexit, you may well be right. But the ERG and hardline Tory Remainers are doing their best to prevent a soft Brexit atm.
I think Corbyn is so unpopular and mistrusted by so many, even if we get a nasty crash Brexit he would struggle to win an election. I think the polls are flattering LABOUR, and when it came to it, the idea of Corbyn as PM would make many natural lefties abstain, or switch to the Greens, Nats, LDs etc
Yes yes, I know Corbyn did well in 2017, but that's when no-one thought he could win, it was a protest vote. Actually voting for him, with the real prospect of him (and his absurd acolytes like Diane Abbot) as the next leaders of the country? Nope.
After a crash out? I wouldn't count on it. Take away the number who are appalled by his foreign policy stuff and the anti semitism scandals, is distaste at his domestic policies really going to be enough? Bearing in mind as well plenty of Labour MPs were pretty lukewarm about him last time, and while they have moments of upset still, on domestic issues they seem very content with him and will probably try harder. Not least since some may have stayed home precisely because they thought Labour had no chance and they were wrong.
The average of the Yougov and Opinium polls quoted earlier does not imply that much is shifting psephologically . A Tory lead of 1.5% would imply six Labour gains at Tory expense with a small number also falling to the Libdems. Tories would probably fall below 310 seats with DUP support no longer sufficient to continue in office.
This is against one of the most chaotic governments in history, with a significantly unpopular prime minister.
As has been pointed out a squillion times, Labour should be polling 15-20 points ahead. It is frankly incredible that they are still behind. But then, Corbyn.
If he stays at the Labour helm, barring a Brexit Apocalypse and early GE, I think the Tories will win an overall majority in 2022, under a new leader.
If they can manage a soft Brexit, you may well be right. But the ERG and hardline Tory Remainers are doing their best to prevent a soft Brexit atm.
I think Corbyn is so unpopular and mistrusted by so many, even if we get a nasty crash Brexit he would struggle to win an election. I think the polls are flattering LABOUR, and when it came to it, the idea of Corbyn as PM would make many natural lefties abstain, or switch to the Greens, Nats, LDs etc
Yes yes, I know Corbyn did well in 2017, but that's when no-one thought he could win, it was a protest vote. Actually voting for him, with the real prospect of him (and his absurd acolytes like Diane Abbot) as the next leaders of the country? Nope.
Er... I think you may be overdosing on Wishful Thinking there.
(I know what it's like because I went on a complete bender on it ahead of the EU ref. I was super confident before the results came out... the hangover was awful and hasn't completely gone! )
I think Corbyn is so unpopular and mistrusted by so many, even if we get a nasty crash Brexit he would struggle to win an election. I think the polls are flattering LABOUR, and when it came to it, the idea of Corbyn as PM would make many natural lefties abstain, or switch to the Greens, Nats, LDs etc
Yes yes, I know Corbyn did well in 2017, but that's when no-one thought he could win, it was a protest vote. Actually voting for him, with the real prospect of him (and his absurd acolytes like Diane Abbot) as the next leaders of the country? Nope.
If many people voted Labour thinking Corbyn was a Remainer, then assuming we leave in March there would be no point voting for him after that
I think Corbyn is so unpopular and mistrusted by so many, even if we get a nasty crash Brexit he would struggle to win an election. I think the polls are flattering LABOUR, and when it came to it, the idea of Corbyn as PM would make many natural lefties abstain, or switch to the Greens, Nats, LDs etc
Yes yes, I know Corbyn did well in 2017, but that's when no-one thought he could win, it was a protest vote. Actually voting for him, with the real prospect of him (and his absurd acolytes like Diane Abbot) as the next leaders of the country? Nope.
If many people voted Labour thinking Corbyn was a Remainer, then assuming we leave in March there would be no point voting for him after that
And if that is true all the more reason he will switch position no matter his personal inclinations.
The Channel Isles and Isle of Man have never joined the EU but I believe are in the customs union.
Anyone know if their status will change post Brexit and will it depend on what the UK territory does?
Well, since their status derives from their link to Britain and they are not mentioned separately in the WA, I would assume they will be leaving along with us.
The average of the Yougov and Opinium polls quoted earlier does not imply that much is shifting psephologically . A Tory lead of 1.5% would imply six Labour gains at Tory expense with a small number also falling to the Libdems. Tories would probably fall below 310 seats with DUP support no longer sufficient to continue in office.
This is against one of the most chaotic governments in history, with a significantly unpopular prime minister.
As has been pointed out a squillion times, Labour should be polling 15-20 points ahead. It is frankly incredible that they are still behind. But then, Corbyn.
If he stays at the Labour helm, barring a Brexit Apocalypse and early GE, I think the Tories will win an overall majority in 2022, under a new leader.
Wishy-washy centre-left parties led by the likes of Ed Miliband or Angela Eagle do not seem to be doing well in many places.
They would be unlikely to do so in this country either.
Maybe it was an alien invasion and they're reporting back at Zlorb High Command.
"Attack Marshal Xanixtl, shall we commence full scale assault of Earth?"
"Nay, Governor Chumbawumba. We invaded their airspace and the only reaction was to close an airport and complain about the delay to holidays. The Earthlings are stoic beyond measure, we cannot countenance the dread of war with such heroes."
Mr. 64, no. As we noted yesterday, Ammianus Marcellinus was right, and May, Miliband and the authorities of the past were wrong.
Such prices were sometimes introduced as emergency measures. They proved useless.
Energy price caps weren't being proposed to counter the effects of a shortage of energy though were they?
Those damned caps will most likely increase my dual fuel price when I renew.
The whole energy market is a fecking shitfest tbh. I spend half a day (if it goes smoothly) every year making sure we are on the cheapest deal. This means people like my mother and my father-in-law (both in their 80s, neither have internet access) subsidise me because they do not have the means or the confidence to switch. Others subsidising me include those too time poor or lacking in IT or social skills to switch.
Then I end up with a company* that, whilst charging me what MoneySavingExpert or somesuch tells me is the lowest rate, keep upping my DD and building up a pile of my money which will no doubt disappear and take me ages to recover at the point they go bust because they have undercut the market to gain unsustainable market share.
Why can't we just have a national electricity service where we all pay the same rate?
- "That would be inefficient?"
What more inefficient than having mutliple competing call centres, IT systems, switching adminstration, etc. etc?
It's madness!
(*Outfox The Market at the moment if you're interested)
Because then you are relying on central government to invest in it and make it an efficient service.
Well I am willing to be convinced... What sort of efficieny improvements have we enjoyed with the current system?
In the electricity sector itself, think there was a significant reduction in costs associated with generation and transmission in the decade since privatisation. There has also been a significant increase in the amount of capital investment. Whether or not that would have been at the same level if it wasn't privatised is difficult to assess, but based on investment in the railways prior to privatisation it wouldn't be out of this world to suggest it would have been lower.
The average of the Yougov and Opinium polls quoted earlier does not imply that much is shifting psephologically . A Tory lead of 1.5% would imply six Labour gains at Tory expense with a small number also falling to the Libdems. Tories would probably fall below 310 seats with DUP support no longer sufficient to continue in office.
This is against one of the most chaotic governments in history, with a significantly unpopular prime minister.
As has been pointed out a squillion times, Labour should be polling 15-20 points ahead. It is frankly incredible that they are still behind. But then, Corbyn.
If he stays at the Labour helm, barring a Brexit Apocalypse and early GE, I think the Tories will win an overall majority in 2022, under a new leader.
If they can manage a soft Brexit, you may well be right. But the ERG and hardline Tory Remainers are doing their best to prevent a soft Brexit atm.
I think Corbyn is so unpopular and mistrusted by so many, even if we get a nasty crash Brexit he would struggle to win an election. I think the polls are flattering LABOUR, and when it came to it, the idea of Corbyn as PM would make many natural lefties abstain, or switch to the Greens, Nats, LDs etc
Yes yes, I know Corbyn did well in 2017, but that's when no-one thought he could win, it was a protest vote. Actually voting for him, with the real prospect of him (and his absurd acolytes like Diane Abbot) as the next leaders of the country? Nope.
I don't think your last paragraph is valid. By the final ten days of the campaign several polls were pointing to the serious possibility of a Hung Parliament. The Tory surge in Scotland also implied a weaker underlying performance elsewhere in GB. Diane Abbot had a number of media disasters in the campaign - yet the effect was marginal.
Many of the most ardent Remainers do indeed come across as people who believe everyone was misled by a few populist demagogues and a few liars.
In fact, it is because the centrist politicians have failed that the extremes are listened to.
I agree, it is a very perceptive comment indeed.
Leave was a vote for change, any change, for people for whom society/the economy isn't working.
Remain was a vote for "everything's fine, carry on" in 2016. Most remainers talk now about setting back the clock to the way things were before the referendum, without seeming to realise that society wasn't working for a lot of people.
If they were serious about remaining, they would need to focus on how they will fix problems like housing, overcrowded classrooms (in some places where the majority of children's first language isn't English), long NHS wait lists and inability to see doctors, etc.
Most people voted leave not on some obscure point of sovereignty but in the hope that their lives would be better. Instead of pointing out how bad Brexit will be, Remainers need to focus on how to address these concerns. Because people's lives were already pretty sh*t.
Great post. All points that people like Alastair Campbell don’t seem get if you follow them on twitter. Many of the establishment Democrats/Hilary supporters in the US are exactly like this as well. Constantly looking to some mythical brilliant past when everyone got along and it was all rainbows and butterflies.
I agree with the first part of this.
In terms of your last sentence though, I can see where you're coming from but surely the ERG mob are even more guilty of "Constantly looking to some mythical brilliant past when everyone got along and it was all rainbows and butterflies. "? (Albeit their golden age is the 1950s rather than the 1990s.)
I disagree.
I don't think the ERG want a return to the 'Butskellism' of the 1950s.
The 'Singapore on Thames' visions are more reminiscent of the raw in tooth capitalism of the 1750s.
Though whether they would be willing to adjust to the realities of such a model, let alone make a success of it, is very doubtful.
The average of the Yougov and Opinium polls quoted earlier does not imply that much is shifting psephologically . A Tory lead of 1.5% would imply six Labour gains at Tory expense with a small number also falling to the Libdems. Tories would probably fall below 310 seats with DUP support no longer sufficient to continue in office.
This is against one of the most chaotic governments in history, with a significantly unpopular prime minister.
As has been pointed out a squillion times, Labour should be polling 15-20 points ahead. It is frankly incredible that they are still behind. But then, Corbyn.
If he stays at the Labour helm, barring a Brexit Apocalypse and early GE, I think the Tories will win an overall majority in 2022, under a new leader.
Wishy-washy centre-left parties led by the likes of Ed Miliband or Angela Eagle do not seem to be doing well in many places.
They would be unlikely to do so in this country either.
There is no question to which the answer would be 'Angela Eagle' - she is not a potential leader of a Brownie Pack let alone a Government.
Somewhere in the last day or two, I read a report that one of the drones was was seen to fly by the control tower and cockily flash its lights.
Ask a magician about mass delusion.
Anyway, I've thought for some time that travel (in the sense of tourism) is bad for the mind, and now seemingly for the climate too. I believe that prosperous Victorians did, however, send some of their kids on a "grand tour" of Europe as a partial cure for depression.
Comments
(I know what it's like because I went on a complete bender on it ahead of the EU ref. I was super confident before the results came out... the hangover was awful and hasn't completely gone!
Edit - I think the answers are here:
https://www.gov.im/about-the-government/departments/cabinet-office/brexit-what-next-for-the-isle-of-man/brexit-faqs/?iomg-device=Mobile
They would be unlikely to do so in this country either.
"Attack Marshal Xanixtl, shall we commence full scale assault of Earth?"
"Nay, Governor Chumbawumba. We invaded their airspace and the only reaction was to close an airport and complain about the delay to holidays. The Earthlings are stoic beyond measure, we cannot countenance the dread of war with such heroes."
Diane Abbot had a number of media disasters in the campaign - yet the effect was marginal.
I don't think the ERG want a return to the 'Butskellism' of the 1950s.
The 'Singapore on Thames' visions are more reminiscent of the raw in tooth capitalism of the 1750s.
Though whether they would be willing to adjust to the realities of such a model, let alone make a success of it, is very doubtful.
NEW THREAD
But still a woeful candidate for any high office anywhere
Ask a magician about mass delusion.
Anyway, I've thought for some time that travel (in the sense of tourism) is bad for the mind, and now seemingly for the climate too. I believe that prosperous Victorians did, however, send some of their kids on a "grand tour" of Europe as a partial cure for depression.