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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn could be the one to extend Article 50 in the New Year
FTPA doesn’t just stand for Fixed Term Parliaments Act; it can equally be Freedom to Piss About, which seems appropriate given the casually reckless approach taken to the Brexit ratification process by just about all sides.
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As Corbyn makes clear in the Guardian, a Labour Government would still Brexit. What’s in it for the EU?
However, if you think the crisis is that there are people getting angry with each other and arguing on the internet then no, remaining wouldn't fix it.
As to whether Jeremy Corbyn would be invited, much would depend on public statements during the horsetrading period by key factions. What would the DUP say? What would the ERG say? Could the Conservatives propose a caretaker who could command short term support? The Queen is not going to invite someone whose position is clearly hopeless.
Among the precedents David Herdson gives, Lloyd George is actually against him. He was not the leader of the Opposition. The precedents are better explained on the basis that the person most likely to command the confidence of the House was selected. Balfour willed Campbell-Bannerman’s succession, Baldwin advised the king to call for Ramsay MacDonald.
For that matter, what would Labour right wing MPs say? This would be their moment of maximum leverage. John Woodcock, now independent, campaigned on the basis that he would not support Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister. Anyone care to guess whether Mike Gapes would?
The WA merely kicks the can down the road for 21 months, the same debates on No Deal vs vassal status just continue.
The overwhelming majority of the British workforce have not gone to live in countries that they were not nationals of - and of those who have, significant numbers have not done it in the EU.
The only Deal on the table.
Also, given the fairly slow pace of the EU agreeing to anything, the new govt would have to survive the confidence vote before the extension was granted, even if it asked before that. That needs several more Tories to resign the whip than have currently promised to, before its possible.
That said, were Corbyn ever to find himself with the opportunity to call for an extension then I'd not be at all surprised if he were to attempt to take advantage of it. The whole point of his strategy of calling for a General Election, whilst floating non-existent unicorn Brexit plans, is to help facilitate Theresa May in running down the clock so that he doesn't have to make a decision. From Corbyn's point of view, the best case scenario is No Deal by default (gives him what he wants, any and all negative consequences can be attributed to Tory incompetence,) and the worst case scenario is that his Europhile backbenchers blink and vote to put the Deal through at the last minute (which would allow him to deflect at least some of the blame from the Brexit-backing fraction of the electorate onto "metropolitan liberal" MPs and most likely result in the fall of the Government and a snap election.)
Corbyn's core support, within and without Parliament, is split between Old Left Labourites who think the EU a capitalist shill and would gladly see the back of it, and New Left internationalists who are obsessed with open borders and see the EU as a progressive bulwark against Tory policy. Being able to put off any firm decision on what to do about Brexit until some never-arrived-at tomorrow saves Corbyn from his nightmare: having, after a lifetime of opposition to Governments of every stripe, to wield real power himself and suffer denunciation from whichever faction on his own side he ends up bitterly disappointing. Leaving Theresa May to get on with it for the next three months or so suits him down to the ground.
Bonar Law, as the leader of the largest party in the Commons, was given first dibs on forming a government in 1916.
Accounts differ as to whether he declined the opportunity and advised the King to send for the Goat, or whether he briefly tried to form a government, failed and then advised the King to send for the Goat.
It is instructive to note that although he functioned as Churchill's deputy for four and a half years, from Chanberlain's death until the coalition was resolved, Churchill never considered Attlee a possible replacement if he died or resigned. Both Eden and Anderson would have been preferred.
As I despise him and Gove about equally, I don't need to worry I am coming to my views on Europe out of personal animus towards the advocates of one side or another.
I do think it's unwise to fulminate against the length of holidays, demand an extension to the Parliamentary term and then jet off elsewhere. But that's a detail.
This is quite a funny response - although I'm not sure he's thought through the full implications:
http://www.twitter.com/FrancisDBrowne/status/1076283982617153537
1. A crisis in Capitalism allows the intelligentsia (him, Diane Abbott, Richard Burgeon) to lead the proles to the victory of True Socialism
2. The EU is the embodiment of capitalist evil and would stop his plans to renationalise BA
3. Everyone agrees with him and will blame the personal disaster brought down on them by him on the Tories, this delivering a Commons majority for Labour of 704 in the next election
For my part in this, mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa
The key point is that Corbyn himself would be beyond this consensus, which would be between the large number of 'moderate' Labour MPs, the large number of Tories opposed to 'no deal', and all the minor parties. Assuming there isn't some instant realignment of the parties, their objective would simply be a 'one job' government, after which there would be an election.
Corbyn isn't the natural (nor acceptable) PM for such a government, and by his just made comments he has effectively ruled himself out. It would need someone willing and capable to step up as the figurehead, just for a few weeks, and gather as many like minded MPs (and people) as they can. Who this might be is of course a key and interesting question - the two possibilities are someone from the minor parties as a 'neutral' (Lucas is an interesting possibility), or more likely an experienced moderate politician from whichever of the two major parties is the larger within the consensus (Clarke, Cooper, Benn, etc.).
So whilst agreeing David's route to an alternative PM, I don't see it being Corbyn. The interesting (and critical, for betting) question is whether protocol would demand Corbyn being given first dibs, as official opposition leader (AND whether he "counts" as next PM if he is allowed to try but fails?), or whether HMQ could go straight to someone else if it was obvious that person speaks for more MPs?
I do wonder if extension is unlikely now and it'll be either revocation (followed by referendum, presumably) or nothing.
This was in fact how nearly all Tory leaders were chosen until 1965.
What's the likely sentence?. I think 5 yrs would not go amiss, given what they have done and how many people it has affected. An exemplary sentence, just like after the riots.
Let the MPs enjoy their break, according to that Russian proverb "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"
Mexico has said they will not pay for it despite the huge boost it has given to national entertainment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46657393
But I can see May as you suggest somehow ploughing on regardless. I think we will get the deal one way or another.
Is HMQ inviting Jezza one constitutional step too far?
In practice I have to say I agree with you, I don't think May whatever her many faults would play games at such a juncture. A more interesting problem would however be trying to work out who would command the confidence of the House and that is where it might get sticky.
Someone like Clarke who is obviously on their way out might be a possibility. Or Grieve, as a respected technocrat.
1. No Deal
2. Realignment, Revocation, General Election
3. Labour moderates blink: Deal, General Election
Followed by the unlikely options:
4. Government falls in January, March General Election, then who knows?
5. Realignment, A50 extension granted, Referendum, implement result, General Election
Of course it is the least worst option.
Better one sinner...
I think if a VonC passed, and it seems unlikely if the MV has failed since the DUP would still be on board in that scenario, the Tories would be given a brief period to find an alternative leader who could win the DUP back or alternative support. A commitment to a second referendum might be sufficient to bring in the Lib Dems on a supply basis, for example. There is no chance that this gap would involve the opportunity to consult the membership so some sort of coronation would have to be attempted. A break up of the Tory party becomes a real possibility at that point.
In the meantime May is ramping up the pressure. There will come a point in January when even Corbyn will not be able to pretend that there is an option of renegotiating a better deal with the EU before the end date. The options then are May's deal, no deal and revoke. I don't think an extension is at all likely at this point, it is not in our gift. My guess is that at that point Corbyn will allow May's deal to pass, probably by abstention.
There is, and always has been, a majority in Parliament for preventing Brexit. It is why the course to be followed to bring it into effect makes the Grand National look like a gentle stroll. But the remainers do not have control of the agenda and it is difficult to see how they get it. The only way I see would be a resolution to revoke Article 50 and even that is uncertain because it might well require an Act of Parliament. The Miller decision preventing revocation would just be too delicious.
Rejoin is a more likely option exiting on the negotiated terms rather than leaving without a WA, but it's still going to be very tough to achieve in practice.
The only "way back", therefore, would probably look like this:
1. We exit to EFTA/EEA
2. The EFTA/EEA arrangement gets reworked into Associate EU Membership (with maybe Sweden and one or two others leaving the core Eurozone)
3. ??Some tevent??
4. The UK rejoins the full EU
Steps 1 and 2, while not likely, are definitely possible. After that it all gets a bit more unlikely.
1. That on 20th December 2018 at 20.18 you did imperil flight number XY123 and cause it to divert.
.....
865. That on 21st December at 9.14 you did imperil flight number AB678 and cause it to divert.
We reckoned the Court could get up to about 4000 years as a punishment.
This is also why the EU are evidently getting nervous about this backstop and tipping towards No Deal instead.
I would reverse the order of 1 to 3, except a Deal passing will not be followed by a GE until 2022.
Which neither Corbyn nor May will contest.
Magic Grandpa's remaining sparkle was wiped off in the Guardian today.....
And I trust the root vegetables are in rude health as well
Remainers putting their hope in Corbyn are deluded. Eventually, maybe, the penny will drop.
I think much tossing will be going on to decide between those two...
Mr. Doethur, the enhanced space cannon barrel is, helpfully, large enough to accommodate both Grayling *and* Adonis concurrently.
Then I thought - maybe not...
Labour Europhiles lending their votes, in effect, to prop up a Conservative administration is also a very big deal.
There are substantial barriers to a realignment, but it's even more difficult to see how MPs from one side act unilaterally and then escape punishment at the General Election which is highly likely to follow.
Morning Malc.
And when you do, please give them all life sentences.