It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
Surely it's unlikely to ever be the governments "policy" but rather it just becomes an inevitability as the clock runs out of time to agree anything else?
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
No Deal is not the end of a process but the start of negotiating the Divorce Bill and a Trade Agreement in parallel - something that should have been happening over the last two years and which would have avoided any Irish border problem.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
All will become clear as we move through January
January 14th to 30th will be one of the most important times in our politics since WW2
Treating the constituent countries of the U.K. as equivalent for constitutional purposes is a nonsense when England contains 85% of the population. There is no good reason why English votes should be worth much less than those in the other countries.
I think our ‘deep state’ is uniquely relaxed about its own disintegration.
Mad idea: could we both solve national devolution and House of Lords reform simultaneously by reconstituting the House of Lords to have 25% representation from each nation (either appointed, elected or a combination)?
It's been put forward before, Labour alluded to something similar in 2015 manifesto
A Senate of the Nations/Regions I believe they called it. Was to be part of discussions in a grand constitutional convention I believe, one of Ed M's decentish ideas.
Could be constituted as follows. NI 18 Wales 30 Scotland 52 in line with population . Then 99 for England ie, not a majority .
I would follow a different system for a Senate. While each constituency represented by a single randomly selected juror has appeal, it may well be hard to sell. I would suggest that each county gets to appoint one or two Senators per County or Metropolitan council, to serve until the next CC elections.
This gives all areas representation, prevents parachuting in favourites to safe seats, and encourages good people to go into local government. Those appointed would tend to have lots of practical experience of administrative realities.
Something based off counties seems problematic given the vast disparity between them and how they are administered, and how much they might change as areas combine into unitaries and the like (eg there are two unitaries in Wiltshire, do they get 2 senators, or 1 for the county as a whole, vs 3 in Somerset (2 unitaries and a county)?
Surely it's unlikely to ever be the governments "policy" but rather it just becomes an inevitability as the clock runs out of time to agree anything else?
A distinction some might cling to, but as there are methods to avoid it however unpalatable to some in the party (and given some Tories' are just as fanatically for remain as some on the other side of the house) it may be a line that does not work for this particular crowd.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
I see Nick Boles still hasn't said he'd do the honourable thing and fight a byelection if he resigns because he won't support the enactment of the manifesto he was elected on. I doubt any of these others would either, not least because would almost certainly lose.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Please read what I said instead of burbling the establishment line.
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
All will become clear as we move through January
I don't think you could have called many things as wrong as that! One thing I think isclear is the herculean effort our MPs will go to to avoid decision, clarification and confrontation long past the point of reason.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Maybe your heroine, Mrs May, should thought about that before she started deporting people and painting immigrants in such a poor light.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
One assumes until the five minutes or so after the meaningful vote result is announced. Then the wheels begin to turn.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Please read what I said instead of burbling the establishment line.
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
I am not saying it should be uncontrolled but it needs to meet the needs of the economy
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
I see Nick Boles still hasn't said he'd do the honourable thing and fight a byelection if he resigns because he won't support the enactment of the manifesto he was elected on. I doubt any of these others would either, not least because would almost certainly lose.
The point would likely be moot since if they did that we'd probably have a GE soon either way. And while I think it is a good thing for someone to resign if they cross the floor and may well be more honourable an action than not doing so, given it is not an obligation I don't think it is actually dishonourable not to do so. Plus if it is a matter of resigning the whip or having it taken away, there does not seem to be many cases of people fighting by-elections on that basis.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
Impossible to say, of course. Under a PR system the Tories (and Labour) would've split into two or three pieces a long time ago and we'd be in a very different place. But we aren't.
Political incompatibility pulls in one direction. The need to put up a united front against Corbyn and company pulls in the other. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it influences the shape and the probability of the possible outcomes.
There's also more than one plausible scenario for a potential split. Ultra pro-Europeans hive off to prevent Brexit. The ERG wing rebels and hives off if May U-turns on implementing Brexit. The centre-right either hives off from or forces out the ERG wing, and tries to form a new party by peeling the Blairite flank off Labour. Tory and Labour pro-Europeans and pragmatists join forces and form a National Government to cancel Brexit, splitting both parties. You could make a case for any one of them.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
One assumes until the five minutes or so after the meaningful vote result is announced. Then the wheels begin to turn.
Which of course is why May has been running scared of it even though it was always going to be lost. That truly was just about her and Tory party management.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Maybe your heroine, Mrs May, should thought about that before she started deporting people and painting immigrants in such a poor light.
I thought the immigration numbers were pretty stable?
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Eventual possible honours will not bother them I shouldn't think! It might end their political careers in the Tory Party but to some other parties they would be welcome heroes.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
All will become clear as we move through January
I don't think you could have called many things as wrong as that! One thing I think isclear is the herculean effort our MPs will go to to avoid decision, clarification and confrontation long past the point of reason.
No - this is the end of tempus fugit. They are out of time and votes will be held and positions revealed
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Please read what I said instead of burbling the establishment line.
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
Over 75% of immigrants in the past year are non-EU. If the government want to stop that it could (it could have stopped it years ago). It's not going to be solved by Brexit.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
All will become clear as we move through January
I don't think you could have called many things as wrong as that! One thing I think isclear is the herculean effort our MPs will go to to avoid decision, clarification and confrontation long past the point of reason.
No - this is the end of tempus fugit. They are out of time and votes will be held and positions revealed
In a vote on a referendum Corbyn cannot hide
Indeed, but I don't think that is as damaging to him as you might believe. He would just prefer not to go down that route.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
One assumes until the five minutes or so after the meaningful vote result is announced. Then the wheels begin to turn.
Which of course if why May has been running scared of it even though it was always going to be lost. That truly was just about her and Tory party management.
Well, yeah. She's been holding out hope for a miracle. Unless Merkel, Macron and Varadkar have one absolutely enormous never-before-seen magic unicorn up their sleeve, it's difficult to see where that miracle is coming from.
But the reality is everyone is already acting as if the Deal has already been rejected, including number 10. Which doesn't engender much faith into how likely they think that miracle will be.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Maybe your heroine, Mrs May, should thought about that before she started deporting people and painting immigrants in such a poor light.
I thought the immigration numbers were pretty stable?
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Maybe your heroine, Mrs May, should thought about that before she started deporting people and painting immigrants in such a poor light.
I thought the immigration numbers were pretty stable?
The immigrants we need are leaving. The unskilled variety still make up the bulk of immigration.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Or simply switch parties. As has previously been pointed out, Wollaston has a fighting chance of re-election to her seat as a Liberal Democrat. Ditto Heidi Allen.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Please read what I said instead of burbling the establishment line.
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
Over 75% of immigrants in the past year are non-EU. If the government want to stop that it could (it could have stopped it years ago). It's not going to be solved by Brexit.
Indeed.
That the government's immigration management is a total shambles isn't the fault of the EU or the last Labour government or Jeremy Corbyn or Nick Clegg or whoever.
Its the fault of this government and nobody more so that Theresa May.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Maybe your heroine, Mrs May, should thought about that before she started deporting people and painting immigrants in such a poor light.
I do not see TM as a heroine and it is unnecessary to suggest I do
I accept the need to control immigration but it needs to be tailored to suit business demands
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
But, ironically, if they hold it all together for another 3 months, No deal happens by default, and there will be no going back in (at least for a while), all the Tory divisions may actually heal. The Tory party has spent the last 30 years divided over Europe. If we crash out in April, that division is essentially gone - one side will have won, there will be nothing left to fight for. It's probably going to lead to a huge regrouping within the Tory factions - what does JRM have in common with Boris, or Sorbury with Rudd other than a view on the EU? If the EU is effectively off the table, then this may be interesting (obviously if May convenes with Starmer to cancel Brexit or similar, clearly that's going to be the end of the Tory party as we know it - I can't imagine it not splitting down the middle).
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Well... Selection is a two part process. You need to be on the Conservative Party's list of candidates which is centrally controlled and be selected for a particular seat by your local party. I think in Boles' case he might feel if he loses the former for a while it could eventually come back if he retains the later.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Or simply switch parties. As has previously been pointed out, Wollaston has a fighting chance of re-election to her seat as a Liberal Democrat. Ditto Heidi Allen.
A reverse takeover of the Lib Dems by remainer Tories might give the party some much-needed brand visibility.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Maybe your heroine, Mrs May, should thought about that before she started deporting people and painting immigrants in such a poor light.
I thought the immigration numbers were pretty stable?
The immigrants we need are leaving. The unskilled variety still make up the bulk of immigration.
Really? The ratio of the various types of visa has been pretty static in recent years.
The whole thing is becoming absurd . The UK is a laughing stock.
Again with this laughing stock stuff, I don't know why it concerns people so much. Periods of intense and divisive politics will lead to plenty for others to make fun of, and every nation gets their turn at being mocked at some point. People make such a big deal of it as though the mere fact of mockery means you should turn aside from a particular position, when it is quite possible what is right for one nation is going to be of amusement to others.
I'm much more concerned about the instability of our politics because of an unwillingness for fanatics to compromise affecting recovery than I am that talk shows overseas get some amusement out of political drama.
Absobloominglutely.....this arguing over the future is a feature, not a bug - but many who deplore it seem to prefer the "consensus emerging from smoke filled rooms" way of doing things. As was pointed out earlier, Britain is still the number 1 global soft power country. As for this "Constitutional Crisis" - Belgium says "hold my beer":
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Or simply switch parties. As has previously been pointed out, Wollaston has a fighting chance of re-election to her seat as a Liberal Democrat. Ditto Heidi Allen.
Is it actually as simple as that? I thought there was a rule that someone had to be a member of the LDs for a certain period before they could be selected as a candidate? But perhaps to encourage possible defections that does not apply to sitting politicians, to allow them them cross the floor and then defend that seat as soon as possible whether it is at county or national level.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Or simply switch parties. As has previously been pointed out, Wollaston has a fighting chance of re-election to her seat as a Liberal Democrat. Ditto Heidi Allen.
Probably more chance of honours that way too!
(Though tbf I don't think they're bothered about such things)
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
I may be way out of whack as I'm not a Conservative, but if I were a member of her local party I'd already regard Wollaston as having gone too far to reselect. Parties need a high degree of loyalty to function and I'd have thought that simply threatening to leave is sufficient to undermine its effectiveness. I think even Boles and Sourbry would struggle to get my vote after what they have said today. Or are Tory activists a lot more mellow and easy going than I would be in their position?
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
One assumes until the five minutes or so after the meaningful vote result is announced. Then the wheels begin to turn.
Actually it will start when the voting on the amendments takes place and how they effect the actual meaningful vote on the deal
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Or simply switch parties. As has previously been pointed out, Wollaston has a fighting chance of re-election to her seat as a Liberal Democrat. Ditto Heidi Allen.
Is it actually as simple as that? I thought there was a rule that someone had to be a member of the LDs for a certain period before they could be selected as a candidate? But perhaps to encourage possible defections that does not apply to sitting politicians, to allow them them cross the floor and then defend that seat as soon as possible whether it is at county or national level.
The central party usually has a lot of discretion over the candidate list.
If an MP is thinking of defecting, they'll usually make sure they get a firm agreement first that the new party will continue to recognise them as an incumbent.
Certainly, for every defection in recent memory that's been the case.
Where it gets awkward is when a constituency party has already selected a PPC. Then you have to have a very difficult conversation with them.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
Or simply switch parties. As has previously been pointed out, Wollaston has a fighting chance of re-election to her seat as a Liberal Democrat. Ditto Heidi Allen.
A reverse takeover of the Lib Dems by remainer Tories might give the party some much-needed brand visibility.
Ken Clarke for next Lib Dem leader!
What better credentials for leader of the Liberal Democrats than a mere 48 years as a Conservative MP?
Though of course Clegg used to joke that Clarke was the 6th LD in Cabinet back in the Coalition days.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
I see Nick Boles still hasn't said he'd do the honourable thing and fight a byelection if he resigns because he won't support the enactment of the manifesto he was elected on. I doubt any of these others would either, not least because would almost certainly lose.
He most certainly wasn't elected on a manifesto which involved crashing out of the EU in chaos without a deal, so I'm not sure what your point is.
It has divisive politics on important issues. It happens.
We're arguing about a very important topic - and this is a bad thing?
Well it can lead to some bad outcomes, but the feeling leading to the division needs to be confronted in order to be resolved, so it should not be avoided, so no, arguing is not a bad thing.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Eventual possible honours will not bother them I shouldn't think! It might end their political careers in the Tory Party but to some other parties they would be welcome heroes.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
As for honours they are given by governments and governments change. In fact if someone like Wollaston was remotely bothered by the prospect of a Damehood or Peerage it may already be the case her better bet is jumping ship. But I doubt she is bothered. Wollaston is clearly a Conservative. Her problem is she's also clearly a normal person who accidently ended up as an MP via the particular all voter, all postal primary in her seat.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Eventual possible honours will not bother them I shouldn't think! It might end their political careers in the Tory Party but to some other parties they would be welcome heroes.
And would lose their seat at the GE
On the issue of Brexit just as the Tories might need to accept passing a deal might cost them their government, so too should MPs be prepared to lose their seats rather than allow through action or passivity an outcome they believe to be unacceptable. That's not easy, but more should be so willing (though it does mean many of those weeping about no deal should never, ever have triggered A50).
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
I may be way out of whack as I'm not a Conservative, but if I were a member of her local party I'd already regard Wollaston as having gone too far to reselect. Parties need a high degree of loyalty to function and I'd have thought that simply threatening to leave is sufficient to undermine its effectiveness. I think even Boles and Sourbry would struggle to get my vote after what they have said today. Or are Tory activists a lot more mellow and easy going than I would be in their position?
Do Tory associations get to reselect? I thought once they had an incumbent, it was pretty hard for them to get rid (although obviously they can threaten to no support).
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
One does wonder when the ultimate Tory confrontation will occur. We're getting people on record saying they will resign the whip if they move in a direction which senior Cabinet Members are endorsing. On the other side I don't think we've seen anyone suggest they will resign the whip if, somehow, the deal was approved, but that is probably just because the DUP would bring down the government at that point so no point in openly breaking ranks, but the deal or something softer (or even revocation) is clearly anathema to a group even larger than those saying they will resign in the event of no deal.
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
All will become clear as we move through January
I don't think you could have called many things as wrong as that! One thing I think isclear is the herculean effort our MPs will go to to avoid decision, clarification and confrontation long past the point of reason.
No - this is the end of tempus fugit. They are out of time and votes will be held and positions revealed
In a vote on a referendum Corbyn cannot hide
Indeed, but I don't think that is as damaging to him as you might believe. He would just prefer not to go down that route.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
I may be way out of whack as I'm not a Conservative, but if I were a member of her local party I'd already regard Wollaston as having gone too far to reselect. Parties need a high degree of loyalty to function and I'd have thought that simply threatening to leave is sufficient to undermine its effectiveness. I think even Boles and Sourbry would struggle to get my vote after what they have said today. Or are Tory activists a lot more mellow and easy going than I would be in their position?
Do Tory associations get to reselect? I thought once they had an incumbent, it was pretty hard for them to get rid (although obviously they can threaten to no support).
I don't know. I suspect there will be somebody on here who does though.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Eventual possible honours will not bother them I shouldn't think! It might end their political careers in the Tory Party but to some other parties they would be welcome heroes.
I like the split superstructure - makes sense from an operational point of view and stops her looking top heavy - form following function.
Splitting the bridge and flyco is done on the QEC for technical and political reasons. It actually has operational disadvantages although these are lessened now that digital comms are so good. First, the carrier needs a lot of comms and sensors which need roof space. The QEC design didn't have the money for, or couldn't rise to the challenge of, a Ford class solution with massive software driven sensor fusion on multiple arrays (AN/SPY-3). So it needs more roof space for the sensors and antennae which the dual islands provide. Second, the separate flyco gives the RAF some turf of their own on the ship without which they would have redoubled their efforts to ruin the project. As it is they have only managed to sabotage it partially by insisting on RAF harmony rules which makes long blue water deployments of the air wing impossible.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
I see Nick Boles still hasn't said he'd do the honourable thing and fight a byelection if he resigns because he won't support the enactment of the manifesto he was elected on. I doubt any of these others would either, not least because would almost certainly lose.
He most certainly wasn't elected on a manifesto which involved crashing out of the EU in chaos without a deal, so I'm not sure what your point is.
I mean, it can and will be argued ad nauseam to what extent May's deal honours the Tory manifesto commitments, but I don't think even the ERG claim that No Deal meets the manifesto promise of an "orderly withdrawal" and a "deep and special partnership" with the EU.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
I may be way out of whack as I'm not a Conservative, but if I were a member of her local party I'd already regard Wollaston as having gone too far to reselect. Parties need a high degree of loyalty to function and I'd have thought that simply threatening to leave is sufficient to undermine its effectiveness. I think even Boles and Sourbry would struggle to get my vote after what they have said today. Or are Tory activists a lot more mellow and easy going than I would be in their position?
Do Tory associations get to reselect? I thought once they had an incumbent, it was pretty hard for them to get rid (although obviously they can threaten to no support).
I seem to recall Jack Lopresti faced a deselection battle over his affair with Andrea Jenkyns. Not sure I can recall successful deselection campaigns off the top of my head though.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted peacefully and democratically to Leave the European Union.
Therefore the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland should Leave the European Union.
The EU attempts to annex a part of our country undemocratically are risking the very sectarian violence it is supposed to prevent. As well as being an undemocratic abomination.
The solution is simple. Both sides agreeing a temporary can kicking transition agreement with nothing permanent agreed. Then work together in the spirit of the GFA to create something imaginative.
Not some blunt hammer smashing peoples rights.
I do wonder if the EU is being recklessly complacent in forgetting the Loyalist paramilitary groups and their potential reaction. It wasn't just the IRA that went around killing people.
It is interesting that the GFA makes absolutely no mention of the border between Northern and Southern Ireland but does affirm explicitly that Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK until a vote by its people to change its status. As such it would appear that it is the backstop rather than any threat of a border that is breaking both the letter and spirit of the GFA.
Why post this? Do you really believe NI would no longer be part of the UK with the backstop? Of course you don't. What's the point? You don't convince anyone who doesn't already agree with you, you just make a few really stupid people reading this threat stupider.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
Eventual possible honours will not bother them I shouldn't think! It might end their political careers in the Tory Party but to some other parties they would be welcome heroes.
And would lose their seat at the GE
On the issue of Brexit just as the Tories might need to accept passing a deal might cost them their government, so too should MPs be prepared to lose their seats rather than allow through action or passivity an outcome they believe to be unacceptable. That's not easy, but more should be so willing (though it does mean many of those weeping about no deal should never, ever have triggered A50).
Even though I disagree with Wollaston and Boles on this point I am always in favour of MPs standing by their principles rather than their parties. But as you say they do the have to be willing to lose their seats (which is the other part of the Burke Equation) if their electorate - who are the real boss, not the parties - disagree with them
Someone there believes in the power of positive thinking. If waverers abandoned ship because defeat looked inevitable, a statement that they are close will surely win them back! You can have a pleasant Christmas confident we are close now, Prime Minister!
Which are not as severe as you think. Members and MPs are very close to united in what they want. Voters is trickier, but again not as bad as with the Tories.
More seriously, MPs almost certainly always think they are doing that no matter what they do, they just get stuck in the partisan trap of assuming what is good for the party is good for the country automatically.
Someone there believes in the power of positive thinking. If waverers abandoned ship because defeat looked inevitable, a statement that they are close will surely win them back! You can have a pleasant Christmas confident we are close now, Prime Minister!
Yes, Prime Minister, your splendid success in Brussels last week getting the EU to renegotiate the backstop has silenced all of your critics. It's a christmas miracle!
I think that's what's known in the trade as "a lie".
Why do you so often resort to the word lie
The article makes sense and is predicated on the DUP accepting whatever TM brings back
It may well be optimistic, but lie - no
If the whips claim to be within 20 votes, that means they must believe they've somehow managed to convince 117 people, including the ERG and arch-remainers, to a man, to fall in line, even though nothing substantive has change, beyond the PM making an arse of herself in Brussels.
Now, it's possible they actually believe that, in which case the chief whip is an even bigger moron than he looks, but the simplest explanation is that it's total nonsense. A lie, told for the reason @kle4 said.
Nothing has changed, materially, for anyone to reconsider their opinion. It doesn't look like anything will change, either.
The Guardian is going in an odd direction under Viner. The best stuff is rapidly becoming as good as the NYT. Meanwhile the click bait stuff seems to have abandoned any pretence at quality control. Last week an article refered to the " Canadian president " and this week Merkel as the " German president " and Mitch McConnell as the Senate Minority Leader.
The mood music is the Guardian is going to break even this year but it's taken it's toll.
The Guardian is going in an odd direction under Viner. The best stuff is rapidly becoming as good as the NYT. Meanwhile the click bait stuff seems to have abandoned any pretence at quality control. Last week an article refered to the " Canadian president " and this week Merkel as the " German president " and Mitch McConnell as the Senate Minority Leader.
The mood music is the Guardian is going to break even this year but it's taken it's toll.
Sooner or later, any successful online news site ends up as a poor quality tribute act to either Buzzfeed or Breitbart.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted peacefully and democratically to Leave the European Union.
Therefore the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland should Leave the European Union.
The EU attempts to annex a part of our country undemocratically are risking the very sectarian violence it is supposed to prevent. As well as being an undemocratic abomination.
The solution is simple. Both sides agreeing a temporary can kicking transition agreement with nothing permanent agreed. Then work together in the spirit of the GFA to create something imaginative.
Not some blunt hammer smashing peoples rights.
I do wonder if the EU is being recklessly complacent in forgetting the Loyalist paramilitary groups and their potential reaction. It wasn't just the IRA that went around killing people.
It is interesting that the GFA makes absolutely no mention of the border between Northern and Southern Ireland but does affirm explicitly that Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK until a vote by its people to change its status. As such it would appear that it is the backstop rather than any threat of a border that is breaking both the letter and spirit of the GFA.
Why post this? Do you really believe NI would no longer be part of the UK with the backstop? Of course you don't. What's the point? You don't convince anyone who doesn't already agree with you, you just make a few really stupid people reading this threat stupider.
It is not what I believe it is what the DUP believe. And they would have at least the basis of a point. You may not like it but it is clear that the backstop puts a separation between the UK and Northern Ireland. Personally as someone generally in favour of a United Ireland I am not that bothered about it hence my support for the Deal. But it is perfectly obvious that creating a separation between the UK and Northern Ireland is far more damaging to the GFA than, for example, an electronic border system along a border which already has plenty of checks on it and already delineates a separation between two tax and legal jurisdictions.
So I post it because it is a fact - and I suppose in the hope it will annoy a few people like you.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
I see Nick Boles still hasn't said he'd do the honourable thing and fight a byelection if he resigns because he won't support the enactment of the manifesto he was elected on. I doubt any of these others would either, not least because would almost certainly lose.
To be fair, if it's a VONC which the government loses, there won't be a need for a by-election.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted peacefully and democratically to Leave the European Union.
Therefore the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland should Leave the European Union.
The EU attempts to annex a part of our country undemocratically are risking the very sectarian violence it is supposed to prevent. As well as being an undemocratic abomination.
The solution is simple. Both sides agreeing a temporary can kicking transition agreement with nothing permanent agreed. Then work together in the spirit of the GFA to create something imaginative.
Not some blunt hammer smashing peoples rights.
I do wonder if the EU is being recklessly complacent in forgetting the Loyalist paramilitary groups and their potential reaction. It wasn't just the IRA that went around killing people.
It is interesting that the GFA makes absolutely no mention of the border between Northern and Southern Ireland but does affirm explicitly that Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK until a vote by its people to change its status. As such it would appear that it is the backstop rather than any threat of a border that is breaking both the letter and spirit of the GFA.
Why post this? Do you really believe NI would no longer be part of the UK with the backstop? Of course you don't. What's the point? You don't convince anyone who doesn't already agree with you, you just make a few really stupid people reading this threat stupider.
It is not what I believe it is what the DUP believe. And they would have at least the basis of a point. You may not like it but it is clear that the backstop puts a separation between the UK and Northern Ireland. Personally as someone generally in favour of a United Ireland I am not that bothered about it hence my support for the Deal. But it is perfectly obvious that creating a separation between the UK and Northern Ireland is far more damaging to the GFA than, for example, an electronic border system along a border which already has plenty of checks on it and already delineates a separation between two tax and legal jurisdictions.
So I post it because it is a fact - and I suppose in the hope it will annoy a few people like you.
A further fact is that the DUP supported and campaigned for Brexit, and should reasonably have expected that delivering on Brexit would involve some kind of separation between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Caveat emptor.
Good on them for being prepared to go against the party line if it moves in that way, though I do wonder if they were also of the type to have complained of any efforts to make us prepared so we were not 'woefully unprepared'.
Soames retweeted approvingly So 4.
No worries, if no deal becomes policy I will beat them all
I see Nick Boles still hasn't said he'd do the honourable thing and fight a byelection if he resigns because he won't support the enactment of the manifesto he was elected on. I doubt any of these others would either, not least because would almost certainly lose.
To be fair, if it's a VONC which the government loses, there won't be a need for a by-election.
Another interpretation of his tweet is that he'd be prepared to force a by election on Brexit?
BBC News is 100% better when Laura K is away. I flicked over to find her gone. Can she go on holiday more often?
Except it isn’t because Laura is a fine journalist who has done well to get where she is.
Nope. She is a mediocre to poor journalist. More spin than scoop, 90% of the time.
She's first class. The best since John Cole.
A poor journalist I’m afraid.
You said that, and I disagreed. I still disagree. Perhaps you'd tell us who is a good journalist in comparison?
The list is too long to even properly begin here. Michael Crick, Jon Pienaar, John Simpson, Polly Toynbee, Emily Maitlis - do I really need to continue?
Personally I think only one of your list is in LK's league. That'd be John Simpson. He is though retired I think.
I rate LK above all of them anyway.
John Cole, as I said, would be my yardstick. I rate her with him and the likes of James Cameron.
LK - I view her as simply outstanding.
She gets things wrong though in a way not to be expected of a senior reporter. The day after the 2017 election she reported that Theresa May was going to the Palace to 'seek permission to form a minority Government'. That showed pure ignorance of how our system works. PMs are not re-appointed following a General Election - they simply continue in office or resign!
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Please read what I said instead of burbling the establishment line.
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
Over 75% of immigrants in the past year are non-EU. If the government want to stop that it could (it could have stopped it years ago). It's not going to be solved by Brexit.
Indeed.
That the government's immigration management is a total shambles isn't the fault of the EU or the last Labour government or Jeremy Corbyn or Nick Clegg or whoever.
Its the fault of this government and nobody more so that Theresa May.
I was playing with some numbers a few days ago, and was looking at economic activity rates for newly arrived non-EU migrants* (i.e. the number that were in work). They peaked in about 1995-96, got worse in a straight line from 1997 to about 2003. They then flat-lined until 2009, before a slight improvement through to 2012. They have then got worse and worse and worse.
That's not a great achievement for... for.. what's their name???
* There's a proviso here: they assume that all non-EU migrants that started in work stayed in work, and those who started out of work stayed out of work. This clearly isn't true, but there isn't enough granularity to see exactly who was working. And I suspect my numbers are broadly correct.
So I post it because it is a fact - and I suppose in the hope it will annoy a few people like you.
OK, let me rephrase. Any chance we could ask you to refrain from writing total bullshit, that you know to be total bullshit? It would be nice to get a bit more signal and a bit less noise.
Wollaston goes further in that tweet than Boles. She refers to leaving the Conservative Party while he onky the Conservative Whip in the Commons. I suspect that's down to their respective relations with tbeir local parties. I think his will back him and she knows if she goes down that route there is no way back and she'll need to stand again as an Independent.
If any vote against the whip in a vnoc they are deselected on the spot ending their careers and eventual possible honours
As for honours they are given by governments and governments change. In fact if someone like Wollaston was remotely bothered by the prospect of a Damehood or Peerage it may already be the case her better bet is jumping ship. But I doubt she is bothered. Wollaston is clearly a Conservative. Her problem is she's also clearly a normal person who accidently ended up as an MP via the particular all voter, all postal primary in her seat.
I must admit that I have a sneaking admiration for Ms Wollaston. Not because I share her views, but because she seems like a genuine person unconcerned with party mechanisms, choosing to do what she thinks is best for her constituents.
That she comes to the wrong conclusions from time to time is of little concern to me, relative to the genuineness of her convictions.
Just recall the insults and the clamour a few days ago for Tory MPs who had had the temerity to organise to challenge May's leadership to be thrown out of the party. Yet now, some of the supposed loyalists who were throwing the mud are showing that they are anything but.
It sounds like a dystopian Love Actually where Huge Grant goes to Heathrow and blocks enterance to the immigrant half of couples in time for Christmas.
This is one area TM and I are not on the same page along with the tens of thousands pledge. In any successful economy we need immigration and making it difficult is anti business
However, when and if we arrive at brexit, the rules on immigration will follow TM handing over
The latest ONS data shows over 300k immigrants during the last year while also showing that the number of immigrants in work has fallen.
How does that sort of immigration make the economy successful ?
We are nearly at full employment and the NHS, care and hospitality sector need immigration to function
Please read what I said instead of burbling the establishment line.
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
Over 75% of immigrants in the past year are non-EU. If the government want to stop that it could (it could have stopped it years ago). It's not going to be solved by Brexit.
Indeed.
That the government's immigration management is a total shambles isn't the fault of the EU or the last Labour government or Jeremy Corbyn or Nick Clegg or whoever.
Its the fault of this government and nobody more so that Theresa May.
I was playing with some numbers a few days ago, and was looking at economic activity rates for newly arrived non-EU migrants* (i.e. the number that were in work). They peaked in about 1995-96, got worse in a straight line from 1997 to about 2003. They then flat-lined until 2009, before a slight improvement through to 2012. They have then got worse and worse and worse.
That's not a great achievement for... for.. what's their name???
* There's a proviso here: they assume that all non-EU migrants that started in work stayed in work, and those who started out of work stayed out of work. This clearly isn't true, but there isn't enough granularity to see exactly who was working. And I suspect my numbers are broadly correct.
Especially given that we effectively have full employment and do have record numbers of job vacancies.
question: if by some miracle TM manages to get approval for her WA from commons, then the DUP decide to pull plug and government falls due to VONC , could a successor PM choose to renege on the WA if they feel the EU is not acting in good faith with the FTA negotiations and declare no deal and repeal WA?
question: if by some miracle TM manages to get approval for her WA from commons, then the DUP decide to pull plug and government falls due to VONC , could a successor PM choose to renege on the WA if they feel the EU is not acting in good faith with the FTA negotiations and declare no deal and repeal WA?
They'd need to get it through Parliament. Given that'd be a few weeks before the withdrawal date, that'd be asking MPs basically to vote for no-deal ........ no chance.
is there any circumstance now whereby No Deal can still occur since ECJ verdict and numbers in commons against no deal, and if not, why so much talk of it and spending of serious taxpayers money preparing for something that is no longer possible?
Just recall the insults and the clamour a few days ago for Tory MPs who had had the temerity to organise to challenge May's leadership to be thrown out of the party. Yet now, some of the supposed loyalists who were throwing the mud are showing that they are anything but.
Surely Ken Clarke is another. He would never support No Deal. And God bless him.
is there any circumstance now whereby No Deal can still occur since ECJ verdict and numbers in commons against no deal, and if not, why so much talk of it and spending of serious taxpayers money preparing for something that is no longer possible?
It happens automatically on the 29th March, unless the govt revokes Brexit, or the deal is passed, or we get an extension - the latter probably only acceptable if we have a referendum planned.
Do Tory associations get to reselect? I thought once they had an incumbent, it was pretty hard for them to get rid (although obviously they can threaten to no support).
Broxtowe's Tory association chair started to survey members on whether they'd like to replace Anna Soubry. She complained, as did others, and he backed down. The constituency is curious in that it's had zealously pro-European MPs (AS, me, Jim Lester) for over 40 years, even though it voted Leave. There are a lot of voters there who have never cared much one way or the other, and who amiably tolerate our Euro-hobby. Obviously it's a bit more tense at the moment.
is there any circumstance now whereby No Deal can still occur since ECJ verdict and numbers in commons against no deal, and if not, why so much talk of it and spending of serious taxpayers money preparing for something that is no longer possible?
It happens automatically on the 29th March, unless the govt revokes Brexit, or the deal is passed, or we get an extension - the latter probably only acceptable if we have a referendum planned.
It's unlikely, but far from impossible.
cant see the government revoking A50, cant see TM deal passing, cant see us getting extension as don't see government agreeing to second referendum it would be political suicide for tories, so no deal it is then
Comments
They've put it all off until after Xmas, but how much longer can they keep this up? They not only loathe one another they are increasingly going to be politically incompatible.
January 14th to 30th will be one of the most important times in our politics since WW2
That we are near full employment yet so few new immigrants are finding work makes the issue especially pertinent.
Now how do immigrants who don't work but use public services help the NHS ?
Political incompatibility pulls in one direction. The need to put up a united front against Corbyn and company pulls in the other. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but it influences the shape and the probability of the possible outcomes.
There's also more than one plausible scenario for a potential split. Ultra pro-Europeans hive off to prevent Brexit. The ERG wing rebels and hives off if May U-turns on implementing Brexit. The centre-right either hives off from or forces out the ERG wing, and tries to form a new party by peeling the Blairite flank off Labour. Tory and Labour pro-Europeans and pragmatists join forces and form a National Government to cancel Brexit, splitting both parties. You could make a case for any one of them.
In a vote on a referendum Corbyn cannot hide
But the reality is everyone is already acting as if the Deal has already been rejected, including number 10. Which doesn't engender much faith into how likely they think that miracle will be.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2018
That the government's immigration management is a total shambles isn't the fault of the EU or the last Labour government or Jeremy Corbyn or Nick Clegg or whoever.
Its the fault of this government and nobody more so that Theresa May.
I accept the need to control immigration but it needs to be tailored to suit business demands
Ken Clarke for next Lib Dem leader!
What on earth has happened to the UK.
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1075163927506575362
(Though tbf I don't think they're bothered about such things)
If an MP is thinking of defecting, they'll usually make sure they get a firm agreement first that the new party will continue to recognise them as an incumbent.
Certainly, for every defection in recent memory that's been the case.
Where it gets awkward is when a constituency party has already selected a PPC. Then you have to have a very difficult conversation with them.
Though of course Clegg used to joke that Clarke was the 6th LD in Cabinet back in the Coalition days.
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075107608434958336
The article makes sense and is predicated on the DUP accepting whatever TM brings back
It may well be optimistic, but lie - no
More seriously, MPs almost certainly always think they are doing that no matter what they do, they just get stuck in the partisan trap of assuming what is good for the party is good for the country automatically.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-guernsey-46540202
Now, it's possible they actually believe that, in which case the chief whip is an even bigger moron than he looks, but the simplest explanation is that it's total nonsense. A lie, told for the reason @kle4 said.
Nothing has changed, materially, for anyone to reconsider their opinion. It doesn't look like anything will change, either.
The mood music is the Guardian is going to break even this year but it's taken it's toll.
So I post it because it is a fact - and I suppose in the hope it will annoy a few people like you.
Of course, the worst journalist in modern times is Robert Peston, but that's another story.
That's not a great achievement for... for.. what's their name???
* There's a proviso here: they assume that all non-EU migrants that started in work stayed in work, and those who started out of work stayed out of work. This clearly isn't true, but there isn't enough granularity to see exactly who was working. And I suspect my numbers are broadly correct.
That she comes to the wrong conclusions from time to time is of little concern to me, relative to the genuineness of her convictions.
It happens automatically on the 29th March, unless the govt revokes Brexit, or the deal is passed, or we get an extension - the latter probably only acceptable if we have a referendum planned.
It's far from impossible, maybe a 1 in 4 shot.