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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up
It is inevitable with all the political moves relating to the prime minister that there is a lot of betting focus at the moment on who will succeed her both as CON leader and also Prime Minister.
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"following the culmination of Brexit however that goes, she’s likely to be seen as a lame duck Prime Minister."
I think she is fairly lame at present
We know Jacob Rees-Mogg has. That's not exactly surprising, given that the cabinet is preparing to do exactly what he wants.
The government say they will not grant any of their own Commons time to Jeremy Corbyn's motion of no confidence in Theresa May. They are almost certainly underestimating Corbyn again. I know Parliament can only be recalled on government request, but can the Speaker extend a session by a day off his own bat? If he does, whose is the extra time?
The best bet of course would be someone outside Cabinet to come through untainted by the fiasco this Cabinet have made of Brexit but that seems highly unlikely based on history.
Plus she may well lose her seat next time.
Taking yesterday's thread on Jeremy Corbyn and today's on Boris Johnson together, who is too long-priced to be next Prime Minister?
The calculation of Tory MPs must surely be "Will he be an asset in the GE?" rather than "Will he make a good PM?". I think he has showed himself to be good at winning elections and a referendum.
Is it just that he remains a blank canvas onto which people can paint their hopes or am I really missing something?
©Salvini
bwahahahahahaha
haha
hahahahahahaha
ha
No way is he going to return to executive office.
They've shown poor judgement and truculence. MPs wanting a united party may be less than thrilled at backing an ERG-type, even if they're themselves sceptical of the EU.
The interesting question about Rees Mogg is whether he might blink. Accept that there is no better deal going to be offered -and that ERG should bank May's Deal and try to ensure maximum independence from the EU in the Trade Deal.
"We have all witnessed the way the EU has interacted in its dealings with the Prime Minister. Above all, the process has confirmed that our continuing position within the EU is untenable and the first - indeed only - priority for the United Kingdom is to depart its clutches.
My preferred route would have been to start preparing for a No Deal Brexit two years ago. Those who blocked such preparations must examine their conscience as to whether their actions have been in the best interests of the negotiations and of this country. But I look at our current preparedness and must conclude that today we are ill-equipped to launch ourselves into the world without guarantees that our economy will not suffer disproportionate turbulence.
I have therefore informed the Prime Minister that when the Meaningful Vote is taken in January, I shall be voting to implement her deal. Having taken soundings, I can assure her that many of my fellow members of the ERG have reached the same conclusion. If her deal falls, the consequences that follow will be down to those seeking to undermine the initial Referendum result."
It would be some climb down and might not seem at all likely. But then, No Deal Brexit didn't seem at all likely a couple of weeks back.....
(If this speech would just stick in Rees Mogg's craw too much to enable him to talk, then I could yet imagine Boris delivering it....)
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1074967936136347648
If you get the ERG core onside and you get the DUP on board, it makes the numbers needed to switch from Labour much more realistic, especially if its a late vote presented in star binary terms.
He reminds me of those US Presidential candidates who are 'flavour of the fortnight' before drifting back into obscurity.
https://labourlist.org/2018/12/our-2019-battle-stopping-tory-voter-suppression-plans/
Is she vindictive enough to actually crash out damaging her party, the economy and her reputation in retaliation for all the pain she has gone through - or does she, as a vicar's daughter, have a sense of duty?
I say the latter - and I suspect that is the conclusion that Remainer MPs will come to. They will call her bluff. If she goes down this line, it will end with a last minute revocation of A50 supported by a majority of her cabinet (and Philip).
That, instead, he has tried alternately to play to the gallery or exit the stage tells us all we need to know about him.
Perhaps it's an attempt to get remainers on board with the deal.
Liked your Brexit election article as well, seemed like a good plan.
We ask a lot more to get a library card
It is not at all unreasonable to require people to demonstrate their right to vote. It works in Northern Ireland - with a free voting ID card which works if people don't have access to any other acceptable form of ID.
There is no evidence at all of a voter suppression plan. That is just scaremongering.
I would personally like to see a roll back of permanent postal voting and the clear fraud potential that exists with the postal vote system as currently set up.
But I think the principle that you have to prove who you are so that you can vote is a perfectly legitimate one.
Are you sure the Speaker can't extend a session without government say-so? Or could he not grant an emergency debate under SO24?
To win this game of bluff, she needs to do the equivalent of throwing the steering wheel out of the window.
Remember - the UK is one eighth of all they export. To risk that - for a backstop the EU says they don't want, won't use? GCHQ will be having fun intercepting ever more febrile conversations.
Information on the results of the trials:
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/electoral-fraud/voter-identification-pilot-schemes
The EU destroyed all the arguments of remainers yesterday. Why? is a question I would like to know the answer to.
Changing the timetable for this week including the adjournment on Thursday would surely need a business motion?
Edit. Never mind I see the EU agreed to make no deal preparations with the UK.
Kind of blows the fallacy that there is no such thing as preparing for no deal out the water that remainers have been peddling on here.
https://twitter.com/_Herbalis_/status/1074944713663410181
I bet it's larger than the amount of personation that's going on in the same areas ...
Although wouldn't your logic say that it is bizarre what the government is currently doing? one without the other..
Or maybe clever like the republican party if your a little cynical.
They announced the sectors yesterday, details coming tomorrow.
Whether that is a polling card, some additional paperwork with your address or some form of card like in NI is what these trials are set up to help determine.
https://www.quiz-maker.com/QB7AJZV
I only manged 4/10.