politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the DUP and Moggsy backing Theresa it looks as though LAB

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the DUP and Moggsy backing Theresa it looks as though LAB’s confidence move will fail

Sammy Wilson of DUP and Rees Mogg both confirm on record they’ll back PM in a confidence vote if Labour gets its debate

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Corbyn is thick as mince.

No wonder he voted Leave.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh and E Pluribus Unum time.

grabcocque

Dan Hodges thinks it's doomed.

Labour nailed on to win it.

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Andrew

47.999999 letters confirmed:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1074757452019761152

Omnium

Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a motion of no-confidence...
It's like Colgate promoting bad-breath.

Oort

Any word from Tory Remainers such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve? Surely some of the 117 MPs who a few days ago expressed the belief in secret that Theresa May shouldn't be Tory leader might have the guts to express the belief in public that she shouldn't be prime minister? Just do it. Get it over with.

Benpointer

So with May looking odds on to win any vote, the government will no doubt shoot themselves in the foot by not allowing time for it.

Big_G_NorthWales

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

Yellow_Submarine

I get the timing. I think Labour have been right to delay a no confidence vote and right that today's fiasco is the right trigger to cgange that stance. What I don't get is the Skinny Latte version on the VoNC which inevitably will get bogged down in procedural wrangling and process story. By definition VoNC aren't suitable for decaff options. The government either loses or they win tieing backbenchers ( and the DUP ) to the sinking ship. But they are clarifying devices. If you don't actually want to clarify the situation then you don't introduce a VoNC in the first place. A skinny latte VoNC is too clever by half which in presentational terms isn't clever at all.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

He is.

He turned a 25% Tory lead into him nearly becoming PM last year.

Big_G_NorthWales

Oort said:

Any word from Tory Remainers such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve? Surely some of the 117 MPs who a few days ago expressed the belief in secret that Theresa May shouldn't be Tory leader might have the guts to express the belief in public that she shouldn't be prime minister? Just do it. Get it over with.

And lose the whip and be deselected - not going to happen

AmpfieldAndy

Hard to disagree with Dan Hodges comment above. Looks like Corbyn has just shot himself in the foot - united the Tories when no-one else and nothing else was capable of it.

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

Not especially, but circumstances could still work in his favour as he can be the right man in the right moment.

AmpfieldAndy

Oort said:

Any word from Tory Remainers such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve? Surely some of the 117 MPs who a few days ago expressed the belief in secret that Theresa May shouldn't be Tory leader might have the guts to express the belief in public that she shouldn't be prime minister? Just do it. Get it over with.

They’ll certainly do precisely that - but not for a muppet like Corbyn.

FrancisUrquhart

Andrew said:

47.999999 letters confirmed:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1074757452019761152

Hmmmmmmmm....

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

Not especially, but circumstances could still work in his favour as he can be the right man in the right moment.

As a matter of interest how do you see that happening

anothernick

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

Philip_Thompson

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

Not especially, but circumstances could still work in his favour as he can be the right man in the right moment.

United them for one motion. Hardly going to stay united come the Meaningful Vote.

RobD

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

Of course they would say that. Whether they mean it remains to be seen.

FrancisUrquhart

So peston tweet suggests corbyn cock-up re VONC in May rather than government.

Yellow_Submarine

Meanwhile in the real world consumers, investors and businesses look to have started pushing the no deal contigency buttons last month so God alone knows what S
December is going to have done to confidence. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it turns out we are in the first quarter of a technical recession. Worse still flatlining the economy is May's strategy. A vote in week begining 14/1 is all about bthe backdrop of retail apocalypse in early January, miserable year ahead forcasts and a Carillion style Brexit relocation announcement or two. Today she shot the first hostage and released the tape online.

williamglenn

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

HYUFD

May will win this vote as well which should secure her position s bit before the New Year.

The DUP will only vote against the government if the Deal passes

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

Sink in to who though?

How is she going to get a majority with the DUP implacably opposed on principle, and Labour implacably opposed by opportunism?

Slackbladder

FrancisUrquhart said:

So peston tweet suggests corbyn cock-up re VONC in May rather than government.

Corbyn IS crap shocker

Big_G_NorthWales

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

She does not see it that way of course

January 14th is a way off and post Xmas, when most of the UK will be partying and having fun and not thinking of brexit

By mid January opinions may have been influenced by polls, the lack of alternatives, and the stark reality of a no deal just a few weeks away

And the EU position or otherwise will be firmly on the table

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

Not especially, but circumstances could still work in his favour as he can be the right man in the right moment.

As a matter of interest how do you see that happening

It was more of a hypothetical recognising that as disliked as he is by many he is liked by others, and that in a suitably chaotic moment or following Tory infighting he can win the day.

If I were to speculate on a particular scenario it would be that as polls move further to remain and May continues to dither, and Corbyn still cannot get a GE, he will switch support to a second referendum. The DUP might accept that depending on the question and agree to bring down the government on that basis, that they will support him for that action only and then a GE to follow.

But I accept that is not a likely outcome.

Yellow_Submarine

RobD said:

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

Of course they would say that. Whether they mean it remains to be seen.

I'm sure the UK's disintergrating government and wider political chaos have the EU shaking in their boots.

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

Sink in to who though?

How is she going to get a majority with the DUP implacably opposed on principle, and Labour implacably opposed by opportunism?

Sink in so that they are forced to put their real cards on the table. If the choice is deal, no deal or no Brexit, people arguing against the deal need to be honest about their alternative and how they want to get there.

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

Sink in to who though?

How is she going to get a majority with the DUP implacably opposed on principle, and Labour implacably opposed by opportunism?

If Corbyn values an election above all, he could let the deal pass then try again with the DUP pulling the plug.

It might wreck his chances of becoming PM in a subsequent election of course if recent polling is to be believed. The irony of the opportunist being destroyed by his opportunism would be delicious.

Omnium

What have we come to that Corbyn has influence over us?

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

He is.

He turned a 25% Tory lead into him nearly becoming PM last year.

Did he, or did Theresa and Nick Timothy?

Philip_Thompson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

She does not see it that way of course

January 14th is a way off and post Xmas, when most of the UK will be partying and having fun and not thinking of brexit

By mid January opinions may have been influenced by polls, the lack of alternatives, and the stark reality of a no deal just a few weeks away

And the EU position or otherwise will be firmly on the table

And if it gets voted down? What then?

At least if it got voted down on the original timetable there was the possibility (no guarantee) of a possible renegotiation and then ratification after something changed. If it gets voted down in January then what next?

anothernick

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

So do you think there is a serious possibility that MPs are going to undergo a Damascene conversion and decide to support the deal? Because that is the only possible justification for delay.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

He is.

He turned a 25% Tory lead into him nearly becoming PM last year.

Did he, or did Theresa and Nick Timothy?

In their case, a tax was definitely not the best form of defence.

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

He is.

He turned a 25% Tory lead into him nearly becoming PM last year.

No Corbyn has proved once again to be a 24 carat clown. Mrs May has just proven she is a deft performer, likely as not she will get her dreadful deal through in January. Running the clock down and ramping up no deal Brexit is nothing short of genius.

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

Sink in to who though?

How is she going to get a majority with the DUP implacably opposed on principle, and Labour implacably opposed by opportunism?

If Corbyn values an election above all, he could let the deal pass then try again with the DUP pulling the plug.

It might wreck his chances of becoming PM in a subsequent election of course if recent polling is to be believed. The irony of the opportunist being destroyed by his opportunism would be delicious.

DUP won't pull the plug if Corbyn lets it get through. Why should they?

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

Not especially, but circumstances could still work in his favour as he can be the right man in the right moment.

As a matter of interest how do you see that happening

It was more of a hypothetical recognising that as disliked as he is by many he is liked by others, and that in a suitably chaotic moment or following Tory infighting he can win the day.

If I were to speculate on a particular scenario it would be that as polls move further to remain and May continues to dither, and Corbyn still cannot get a GE, he will switch support to a second referendum. The DUP might accept that depending on the question and agree to bring down the government on that basis, that they will support him for that action only and then a GE to follow.

But I accept that is not a likely outcome.

The day Corbyn backs a referendum is the day he loses most of England outside the cities

Philip_Thompson

Yellow_Submarine said:

RobD said:

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

Of course they would say that. Whether they mean it remains to be seen.

I'm sure the UK's disintergrating government and wider political chaos have the EU shaking in their boots.

Well indeed.

The deal's best chance was a new leader who could unite the government and stop the chaos.

Instead we have dithering May.

Chris_A

If it's not a FTPA motion then the DUP are irrelevant because May - who after all holds Parliament in contempt - will just instruct her lot not to turn up to the vote again and pretend that nothing has changed.

dyingswan

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

So peston tweet suggests corbyn cock-up re VONC in May rather than government.

lol. What was the tweet? Did they not read the FTPA or something?

AmpfieldAndy

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

He is.

He turned a 25% Tory lead into him nearly becoming PM last year.

Did he, or did Theresa and Nick Timothy?

Bit of both. His policy on tuition fees was undoubtedly successful just as May’s policies on social care and fox hunting went down like a cup of cold sick. What Corbyn has was his ability as a campaigner and people willing to support him courtesy inf Momentum. May had neither.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just thinking this through

TM won her confidence vote from the party last week, the weekend polls show her popularity at 47%, and now Corbyn has united the ERG and DUP behind TM consolidating TM even further

Corbyn is not very good at politics is he

He is.

He turned a 25% Tory lead into him nearly becoming PM last year.

Did he, or did Theresa and Nick Timothy?

50/50.

Big_G_NorthWales

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DUP to support TM in vote says Nigel Dodds

Considers labour are playing games

Only the DUP are allowed to play games, how dare Labour encroach on their turf?

May's position is no better than it was if she wins, or the vote is not held in a timely matter, so it is not that bad for Labour even if it does not go very well.

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

She does not see it that way of course

January 14th is a way off and post Xmas, when most of the UK will be partying and having fun and not thinking of brexit

By mid January opinions may have been influenced by polls, the lack of alternatives, and the stark reality of a no deal just a few weeks away

And the EU position or otherwise will be firmly on the table

And if it gets voted down? What then?

At least if it got voted down on the original timetable there was the possibility (no guarantee) of a possible renegotiation and then ratification after something changed. If it gets voted down in January then what next?

And there is the problem for the HOC

Safety in the WDA backed by business and 63% in NI or utter chaos of no deal or no brexit

williamglenn

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

So do you think there is a serious possibility that MPs are going to undergo a Damascene conversion and decide to support the deal? Because that is the only possible justification for delay.

I think delaying it gives space for people to debate what comes next less chaotically and for us to get a more settled view of public opinion.

TheScreamingEagles

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

IanB2

Yellow_Submarine said:

Meanwhile in the real world consumers, investors and businesses look to have started pushing the no deal contigency buttons last month so God alone knows what S
December is going to have done to confidence. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it turns out we are in the first quarter of a technical recession. Worse still flatlining the economy is May's strategy. A vote in week begining 14/1 is all about bthe backdrop of retail apocalypse in early January, miserable year ahead forcasts and a Carillion style Brexit relocation announcement or two. Today she shot the first hostage and released the tape online.

If there is a batch of bad economic news coming after Xmas, it could weaken her hand, particularly as far as using no deal as a threat is concerned.

There is some pressure from Tories on ConHome to use the VONC to finish the job; it only takes a few switchers to sink the vote, so her winning isn't guaranteed.

Nevertheless it is Labour's sinking poll ratings that is the biggest story here. Given the circumstances the government is in, the opposition being behind is almost unbelievable. I can't see another meaningless vote (assuming they don't go for a proper VONC) helping them at all; people simply want to know what alternative approach the opposition is offering.

AmpfieldAndy

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

Paid someone to sit the exams for him ?

ydoethur

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

E at A level was easy in the 1960s. It was the equivalent today of getting a gold star at kindergarten.

IanB2

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

Quite. Corbyn's confidence motion might not be the deftest political move ever made but leaving party politics aside how on earth can May defend the decision to put off the vote for another month? The EU has made clear that there will be no more negotiation on the WA, it's take it or leave it. The agreement has been in the public domain for a month or so and we have less than 100 days left before March 29th. If the agreement is not acceptable to a majority of MPs, and it seems it's not, then we need to come up with another way forward PDQ. It is the Prime Minister's responsibility to lead that process and she is egregiously failing in her duty by refusing to do so.

I think she feels MPs need to come to terms with how narrow the options are first and an extra few weeks will allow time for it to sink in.

So do you think there is a serious possibility that MPs are going to undergo a Damascene conversion and decide to support the deal? Because that is the only possible justification for delay.

Tbf there are the first signs today that even the ERG are finally starting to realise that they have been total c**ks and done big damage to their cause and credibility.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Nah, 2001, last year of Linear A-levels before Blair screwed up and Gove screwed up more.

David_Evershed

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

Manhole covers and Gardening?

Omnium

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

solarflare

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173

Both PM and LOTO skying the ball over that bar for their respective open goals?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074768779236794368

Floater

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

He got lucky on the day?

kle4

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

He had battles to fight on the front line of the revolution.

Plus he joined the establishment by becoming an MP for 30+ years

GIN1138

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Oort said:

Any word from Tory Remainers such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve? Surely some of the 117 MPs who a few days ago expressed the belief in secret that Theresa May shouldn't be Tory leader might have the guts to express the belief in public that she shouldn't be prime minister? Just do it. Get it over with.

And lose the whip and be deselected - not going to happen

Grieve has said he's standing down at the next election and Soubry must know Broxtowe is gone as she only hung on by the skin of her teeth in 2017.

They might think they have nothing to lose

ydoethur

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

Possibly harder to get top grades, but pass level was easy.

Not just A-levels either. A degree without honours at Cambridge was a piece of paper with some Latin on it.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074768779236794368

Hmm. It is playing games by having it be in PM rather than government, but I'm trying to imagine how it looks to the layman, and it does seem like it would be that the gov are running scared of the vote.

IanB2

It's a shame the TV debate never took place; had May and Corbyn been head to head on prime TV, it would have been very difficult for her then to have pulled the vote.

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

There is some pressure from Tories on ConHome to use the VONC to finish the job; it only takes a few switchers to sink the vote, so her winning isn't guaranteed.

No there isn't. Anyone who backs a Labour VoNC against a Conservative government is not a Tory.

Anyone on ContinuityIDS backing that explains why it is viewed contemptuously as UKIPHome.

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Oort said:

Any word from Tory Remainers such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve? Surely some of the 117 MPs who a few days ago expressed the belief in secret that Theresa May shouldn't be Tory leader might have the guts to express the belief in public that she shouldn't be prime minister? Just do it. Get it over with.

And lose the whip and be deselected - not going to happen

Grieve has said he's standing down at the next election and Soubry must know Broxtowe is gone as she only hung n by the skin of her teeth in 2017.

They might think they have nothing to lose

Being deselected leaves a political marker and doubt looks good for any recognition in the honours list

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/simon_r_johnson/status/1074770502336557057

Yellow_Submarine

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Oort said:

Any word from Tory Remainers such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve? Surely some of the 117 MPs who a few days ago expressed the belief in secret that Theresa May shouldn't be Tory leader might have the guts to express the belief in public that she shouldn't be prime minister? Just do it. Get it over with.

And lose the whip and be deselected - not going to happen

Grieve has said he's standing down at the next election and Soubry must know Broxtowe is gone as she only hung n by the skin of her teeth in 2017.

They might think they have nothing to lose

A handful of Tories may be prepared to be suicide bombers for the right target at the right moment but this is neither and Corbyn has given them vests with no detonators with hus skinny latte VoNC format. No one is going to sacrifice their career for that nor should they.

Donny43

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

IAWTP.

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

It's a shame the TV debate never took place; had May and Corbyn been head to head on prime TV, it would have been very difficult for her then to have pulled the vote.

That's a very good point.

Floater

Yellow_Submarine said:

Meanwhile in the real world consumers, investors and businesses look to have started pushing the no deal contigency buttons last month so God alone knows what S
December is going to have done to confidence. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it turns out we are in the first quarter of a technical recession. Worse still flatlining the economy is May's strategy. A vote in week begining 14/1 is all about bthe backdrop of retail apocalypse in early January, miserable year ahead forcasts and a Carillion style Brexit relocation announcement or two. Today she shot the first hostage and released the tape online.

Any sensible business would have been planning for no deal brexit for a long time.

The industry I work in certainly has far advanced plans.

Indeed, one large component part of that industry goes live with their no deal brexit plans from January 1st - they will remain in place in the event of a deal or even no brexit.

IanB2

Slackbladder said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So peston tweet suggests corbyn cock-up re VONC in May rather than government.

Corbyn IS crap shocker

Or Peston is crap shocker?

Corbyn is trying to avoid the terms of the Conference motion requiring him to call for a referendum if he can't get a general election. So he can't afford to try for a general election, just yet. Yet his party is screaming for him to do something. So he comes up with a pointless something that isn't trying for a general election, focused on May rather than the government.

FrancisUrquhart

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

He did go to one of the best state schools in the country.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic: a very odd story about Guy Martin:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-46590751

ydoethur

Dominic Grieve has said he's standing down? When and why? I can't find any reference to it.

He would be a loss to national life.

anothernick

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074768779236794368

Hmm. It is playing games by having it be in PM rather than government, but I'm trying to imagine how it looks to the layman, and it does seem like it would be that the gov are running scared of the vote.

Indeed. And maybe this was what Labour wanted all along. It's an odd move on the part of the government really, if this genuinely would have united all the Tories and the DUP it would be in their interest to hold the vote.

Omnium

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

Possibly harder to get top grades, but pass level was easy.

Not just A-levels either. A degree without honours at Cambridge was a piece of paper with some Latin on it.

Which of the pieces of paper did you get from Cambridge? Ordinary degrees are rare, but I've not met anyone who wasn't outstanding in later life that has such a thing.

At A level people failed. I'm not so sure they do so now.

kle4

IanB2 said:

Slackbladder said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

So peston tweet suggests corbyn cock-up re VONC in May rather than government.

Corbyn IS crap shocker

Or Peston is crap shocker?

Corbyn is trying to avoid the terms of the Conference motion requiring him to call for a referendum if he can't get a general election. So he can't afford to try for a general election, just yet. Yet his party is screaming for him to do something. So he comes up with a pointless something that isn't trying for a general election, focused on May rather than the government.

Yes, it's silly but it is his delaying tactic just as May has been trying her own. The two deserve each other.

solarflare

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074768779236794368

Hmm. It is playing games by having it be in PM rather than government, but I'm trying to imagine how it looks to the layman, and it does seem like it would be that the gov are running scared of the vote.

But if the government are running scared of the vote, then unless Labour go for the ACTUAL VONC, then all we've got is two political parties frightened of their own shadows

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Dominic Grieve has said he's standing down? When and why? I can't find any reference to it.

He would be a loss to national life.

I think GIN1138 is peddling fake news or been on the gin.

FrancisUrquhart

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic: a very odd story about Guy Martin:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-46590751

There has got to be something more to it. He isn’t an MP with speeding convictions, his whole life has been bikes and trucks. It is very bizarre.

Cyclefree

I think it a great shame that someone like Dominic Grieve will no longer be in Parliament after the next General Election.

We are not exactly over-supplied with principled and intelligent MPs. To lose one of the few we have is a pity.

ydoethur

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

Possibly harder to get top grades, but pass level was easy.

Not just A-levels either. A degree without honours at Cambridge was a piece of paper with some Latin on it.

Which of the pieces of paper did you get from Cambridge? Ordinary degrees are rare, but I've not met anyone who wasn't outstanding in later life that has such a thing.

At A level people failed. I'm not so sure they do so now.

You would be sure wrongly. I have had several students fail.

And I went to a proper university.

kle4

ydoethur said:

Dominic Grieve has said he's standing down? When and why? I can't find any reference to it.

He would be a loss to national life.

Once perhaps. Now he's just a fanatic, flashes of any brilliance notwithstanding, and we have no need of fanatics.

ydoethur

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

Possibly harder to get top grades, but pass level was easy.

Not just A-levels either. A degree without honours at Cambridge was a piece of paper with some Latin on it.

Which of the pieces of paper did you get from Cambridge? Ordinary degrees are rare, but I've not met anyone who wasn't outstanding in later life that has such a thing.

At A level people failed. I'm not so sure they do so now.

Incidentally, I was quoting somebody who was a lecturer at Cambridge for thirty years. Who are you relying on?

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic: a very odd story about Guy Martin:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-46590751

There has got to be something more to it. He isn’t an MP with speeding convictions, his whole life has been bikes and trucks. It is very bizarre.

I read his book. He's had run-ins with the law before so I'm hugely surprised by this.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1074736260403658753
https://twitter.com/marcusaroberts/status/1074770999940399105

IanB2

solarflare said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074768779236794368

Hmm. It is playing games by having it be in PM rather than government, but I'm trying to imagine how it looks to the layman, and it does seem like it would be that the gov are running scared of the vote.

But if the government are running scared of the vote, then unless Labour go for the ACTUAL VONC, then all we've got is two political parties frightened of their own shadows

Yes, neither party (leadership) actually wants to vote on anything meaningful. Hence the spectacle of Parliament day after day talking about nothing.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Dominic Grieve has said he's standing down? When and why? I can't find any reference to it.

He would be a loss to national life.

I think GIN1138 is peddling fake news or been on the gin.

I'm sure he announced a few months ago that he wouldn't be standing in the next election, but I could be wrong.

Foxy

Floater said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Meanwhile in the real world consumers, investors and businesses look to have started pushing the no deal contigency buttons last month so God alone knows what S
December is going to have done to confidence. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it turns out we are in the first quarter of a technical recession. Worse still flatlining the economy is May's strategy. A vote in week begining 14/1 is all about bthe backdrop of retail apocalypse in early January, miserable year ahead forcasts and a Carillion style Brexit relocation announcement or two. Today she shot the first hostage and released the tape online.

Any sensible business would have been planning for no deal brexit for a long time.

The industry I work in certainly has far advanced plans.

Indeed, one large component part of that industry goes live with their no deal brexit plans from January 1st - they will remain in place in the event of a deal or even no brexit.

NHS Trusts have been instructed not to plan for No Deal. The Department of Health will do that, so we are f***ed.

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Dominic Grieve has said he's standing down? When and why? I can't find any reference to it.

He would be a loss to national life.

I think GIN1138 is peddling fake news or been on the gin.

I'm sure he announced a few months ago that he wouldn't be standing in the next election, but I could be wrong.

I've asked someone at Beaconsfield Conservatives and they say you're wrong.

Omnium

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

Possibly harder to get top grades, but pass level was easy.

Not just A-levels either. A degree without honours at Cambridge was a piece of paper with some Latin on it.

Which of the pieces of paper did you get from Cambridge? Ordinary degrees are rare, but I've not met anyone who wasn't outstanding in later life that has such a thing.

At A level people failed. I'm not so sure they do so now.

You would be sure wrongly. I have had several students fail.

And I went to a proper university.

I've no argument with Hull's reputation...

Tricky ground when it's your student's that are underperforming.

'A' level grades have declined substantially in merit, as have degree classes. I don't think this is a UK thing - it's much more general.

chloe

I wonder if Corbyn will now move a formal VONC in the government. I fail to see though how this resolves the Brexit conundrum. I wish the MV had happened last week and if it had not passed now MPs were working to find a solution that honours the referendum and protects jobs and the economy.

Roger

It's difficult to know what Jeremy was thinking. Maybe he felt sorry for her.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Dominic Grieve has said he's standing down? When and why? I can't find any reference to it.

He would be a loss to national life.

I think GIN1138 is peddling fake news or been on the gin.

I'm sure he announced a few months ago that he wouldn't be standing in the next election, but I could be wrong.

I've asked someone at Beaconsfield Conservatives and they say you're wrong.

OK. My mistake. I must have been thinking of someone else (Maybe Ken Clarke?)

Bromptonaut

Where’s the U.K. in this future?

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120483_german-automakers-commit-to-massive-battery-purchases-sidestep-some-hard-realities

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1074736260403658753
https://twitter.com/marcusaroberts/status/1074770999940399105

Well, given I agree that despite what May is saying the government is preparing for a second referendum, I would say it is the former. As public opinion moves Labour want to get ahead of it without seeming like they are u-turning or changing position at all.

kle4

chloe said:

I wonder if Corbyn will now move a formal VONC in the government. I fail to see though how this resolves the Brexit conundrum. I wish the MV had happened last week and if it had not passed now MPs were working to find a solution that honours the referendum and protects jobs and the economy.

Indeed. One of May's more indefensible decisions.

ydoethur

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dyingswan said:

How the hell did Corbyn manage to get 2 Es at A Level?

A Levels were easier in his day, they've considerably harder afterwards, peaking in 1997.

Much harder in his day, but if a Uni liked you you could still study and get a grant with two Es. I guess no-one liked him. I can see why.

Possibly harder to get top grades, but pass level was easy.

Not just A-levels either. A degree without honours at Cambridge was a piece of paper with some Latin on it.

Which of the pieces of paper did you get from Cambridge? Ordinary degrees are rare, but I've not met anyone who wasn't outstanding in later life that has such a thing.

At A level people failed. I'm not so sure they do so now.

You would be sure wrongly. I have had several students fail.

And I went to a proper university.

I've no argument with Hull's reputation...

Tricky ground when it's your student's that are underperforming.

'A' level grades have declined substantially in merit, as have degree classes. I don't think this is a UK thing - it's much more general.

That, unfortunately, is not true. They are now very hard to get. They're all the harder when the marking criteria is wrong because Amanda Spielman is a lowlife and Gove is a failure, and the Principal Exmainer for one module was so dense he didn't know the Duke of Suffolk was murdered in 1450.

And as for the abuse about my students underperforming, sit them yourself before you try to bully anyone further with your lies and ignorance. If you get a decent mark, by all means criticise. You would fail, because you can't even write simple sentences correctly, but that would at least be very funny.

kle4

solarflare said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074767895601799173
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074768779236794368

Hmm. It is playing games by having it be in PM rather than government, but I'm trying to imagine how it looks to the layman, and it does seem like it would be that the gov are running scared of the vote.

But if the government are running scared of the vote, then unless Labour go for the ACTUAL VONC, then all we've got is two political parties frightened of their own shadows

Perhaps, but it is a harder point to get across that 'This is not a true VONC in the government and that is why we are ignoring it' than 'The government is afraid of this VONC'.

Jonathan

kle4 said:

chloe said:

I wonder if Corbyn will now move a formal VONC in the government. I fail to see though how this resolves the Brexit conundrum. I wish the MV had happened last week and if it had not passed now MPs were working to find a solution that honours the referendum and protects jobs and the economy.

Indeed. One of May's more indefensible decisions.

The day she put herself before country. Totally lost me at that point.