I think you underestimate the chances, the longer this is going on, of Labour winning an outright majority.
No I don't, I cannot tell you the antipathy towards Corbyn of the core Tory vote 'Marxist' a 'Communist' etc just some of the things I hear on the door about him even if there is little enthusiasm for the Tories there is real fear of Corbyn amongst the al election in England but no majority at all across the UK
"the Tory core vote"
What about those voters, like me, who don't fit into that category?
That is why I think you are wrong. I despise Corbyn and what he stands for. But I know plenty who don't feel that strongly, who think that the Tories need a kicking and that Labour are the ones to do it, despite Corbyn, plenty who will vote for him "holding their nose" and plenty who won't vote at all.
And if the Tories lead us to a disastrous Brexit, their claims that Corbyn will create Socialist chaos, will ring very hollow indeed.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
Damn right I'm not committed to the Tories. You are only talking to and about the core vote. That won't win you an election. As 2017 showed you.
But keep talking to yourself if it makes you feel better. Meanwhile 2 votes in a Tory marginal seat won for the first time by the Tories in decades in 2017 are up for grabs and your party is doing everything it can to avoid getting them.
The Tories won a majority of 59 in 2017 in England so my point remains.
Given you are not a normal Tory voter there is every chance trying to appeal too much to you would lose Tory voters elsewhere either to staying at home or to UKIP
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
I think you over emphasise how committed people are. I do find myself disagreeing with cyclefree on how angry to get at specific actions, as I interpret the reasoning differently, but you're pretty complacent about potential effect on the Tories. Dislike of Corbyn is still there but the fear might be less. Not by much, but it doesnt need to be by much.
Well, quite. I'm not voting Tory again. They are simply exhausted, directionless, and the party's senior leadership is utterly underwhelming.
Best case scenario short term is they limp on unable to do much, which is not good for the Long term. 9 years is not terrible, they need to be out of office and cleanse again.
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
It's a union with very centralised powers, not a federation of equal states.
Rob , it is supposedly an equal union and this was heavily pushed in 2014, except as we see they have reverted to dictatorship.
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The geriatric members of the Ruislip Tory Association just interviewed on SP weren't exactly an advert for the party - although one of them did say "we need some younger people, but there aren't any!".
Under MacMillan and under Thatcher the Tories managed to reinvent themselves to fit the modern era, and it was clear Cameron had something similar in mind when he took up his job. But it's not happening now; indeed both Brexit and the housing crisis (plus arguably student finance) are killing the Tories with younger people.
Young people never vote Tory except in landslide years, even Ed Miliband won under 35s.
It is the middle ages the Tories need to win
Well the average age of first home ownership is already in the late 30s and rising.
Well given the average age of first voting Tory at GE17 was 47 plenty of chance to win some of those back if May's Deal gets through and we get a sensible Brexit and avoid No Deal
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now.
Big_G seems like a nice person, but he is a party loyalist and I tend to discount what party loyalists post since they often spout the official line whatever it is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
You are not the only one. The Brexit myopia and Mrs May's tin ear are ensuring that the Party's reputation is being destroyed. God help them if a competent politician arises in opposition to them. Their aging support base is slowly shuffling off this mortal coil and that will not help either. They are giving nothing to the younger generations that would garner support - quite the opposite.
The Tory Party seems intent on its own destruction.
More of this Tories dying off nonsense. How many generations has this been spouted for?
The geriatric members of the Ruislip Tory Association just interviewed on SP weren't exactly an advert for the party - although one of them did say "we need some younger people, but there aren't any!".
Under MacMillan and under Thatcher the Tories managed to reinvent themselves to fit the modern era, and it was clear Cameron had something similar in mind when he took up his job. But it's not happening now; indeed both Brexit and the housing crisis (plus arguably student finance) are killing the Tories with younger people.
Young people never vote Tory except in landslide years, even Ed Miliband won under 35s.
It is the middle ages the Tories need to win
Well the average age of first home ownership is already in the late 30s and rising.
Well given the average age of first voting Tory at GE17 was 47 plenty of chance to win some of those back if May's Deal gets through and we get a sensible Brexit and avoid No Deal
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
What do you think the European Convention on Human Rights is, other than a supranational Convention to restrain extremist governments? Or do you want to get rid of that as well?
You're being pretty ridiculous. One can be ok with that And not the idea the EU is needed to restrain political parties from pretty regular actions like various degrees of socialism. That level of restraint on governing options some are ok with and some dislike, it doesn't mean everyone thinks any voluntary joined restraint is bad. You've extrapolated a very broad view from a comment that was focused on a specific scenario.
How very like a politician.
No - I am afraid that it is you who are being ridiculous. No government can - or should - govern exactly as they please. No government is above the law. And we have long accepted that we have basic rights that no government should be allowed to interfere with or remove. The EU is one way in which that general principle has been enacted in Europe; the ECHR is another.
My fear of a chaotic Brexit followed by a Corbyn government is that we will lose some of those restraints at the very time when we have a party led by people who do not fundamentally and instinctively believe in liberal democracy. That is a very dangerous combination.
Now I may be wrong and overstating the risk. I hope I am. But it is a risk and one which ought to be taken more seriously than it is.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1074251476111974402?s=21 Jeremy Corbyn isn’t a liberal centrist, but is in fact a socialist......well I never. This has been self evident for a long time now, and people don’t need to get real about it because they already know this.
Suspect Maugham doesn't care... all he cares about is stopping Brexit by any means necessary.
Democracy isn't a partial thing. If Corbyn is elected, let him govern as he pleases. The idea that we need a supranational body to restrain a socialist government is utterly repugnant.
What do you think the European Convention on Human Rights is, other than a supranational Convention to restrain extremist governments? Or do you want to get rid of that as well?
I believe (though please do correct me if I'm wrong) that the ECHR was incorporated into the HRA '98? Our domestic laws on human rights are (again, correct me if I'm wrong) a superset of the ECHR.
Do you have reason to believe that any mainstream UK political party wishes to revoke our human rights?
You are right that the ECHR has been incorporated into UK law. But we can still ultimately appeal to the court. The Tories did talk about doing something about the ECHR at one point;
My point though is that we do need - and have accepted since 1945 - restraints on what governments, even democratically elected ones, can do. We have accepted that no government can govern exactly as it pleases because there are - and must be - limits. We will be glad of those limits if some of the wilder proposals emanating from some of Corbyn's outriders ever try and get implemented.
Well, my counterpoints are twofold.
Yes, we do accept limits but those limits do not necessarily require us to belong to a body dedicated to forming a federal polity. Much of the ECHR is drawn from both English law and the UN's UDHR.
Secondly, Corbyn's policies may cause economic hardships for the country. In which case his government will be voted out at the next General Election. That's a mechanism which works well in this country, particularly with FPTP (we tend to lambast FPTP but it does mitigate one of the downsides of PR, e.g. vote for whoever you please, get Merkel).
If however, he decided to become President for Life and abolish elections, I'd be out there with my pitchfork and torch. But I don't think he does. I think Labour are simply left wing in the tradition of the '82 manifesto and that is neither a sin nor a threat to this country.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
I think you over emphasise how committed people are. I do find myself disagreeing with cyclefree on how angry to get at specific actions, as I interpret the reasoning differently, but you're pretty complacent about potential effect on the Tories. Dislike of Corbyn is still there but the fear might be less. Not by much, but it doesnt need to be by much.
Well, quite. I'm not voting Tory again. They are simply exhausted, directionless, and the party's senior leadership is utterly underwhelming.
Best case scenario short term is they limp on unable to do much, which is not good for the Long term. 9 years is not terrible, they need to be out of office and cleanse again.
Some merit in that, over the last century since universal suffrage the Tories have never been in opposition for more than 6 years apart from the 13 years of 1997 to 2010 and Corbyn is no Blair.
It is Corbyn giving the Tories a chance of a 4th term much as it was Kinnock who gave them a 4th win in 1992
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
It's a union with very centralised powers, not a federation of equal states.
Rob , it is supposedly an equal union and this was heavily pushed in 2014, except as we see they have reverted to dictatorship.
You are obviously not even committed to the Tories now when at least around 38 to 40% of voters are clearly committed to the Tories in the polls.
You also forget that the vast majority of the Tory vote is made up of Leavers now, even under a No Deal scenario very few of them would switch to Labour and Tory Remainers would be more likely to vote for the LDs than Corbyn
I think you over emphasise how committed people are. I do find myself disagreeing with cyclefree on how angry to get at specific actions, as I interpret the reasoning differently, but you're pretty complacent about potential effect on the Tories. Dislike of Corbyn is still there but the fear might be less. Not by much, but it doesnt need to be by much.
Surely the big Tory problem is that they've pretty well upset anyone who might vote for them, but their big answer is that there a considerable number of people who will never, ever, vote anything else. People, in other words, like Mrs M herself!
Except if EUref2 led to Remain there would be no material change of circumstances enabling the SNP to call induref2 and almost no chance of Yes winning it even if it was called
The oracle has spoken , we will remain a vassal state.
It might well be the case Malcolm. After this debacle, how many more referenda can we cope with?
I sincerely hope there will be one soon in Scotland.
Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan for a managed no deal that could halve Brexit bill - Telegraph
Penny Mordaunt is expected to become the first Cabinet minister to unveil detailed plans for a “managed" no deal to slash the UK's Brexit bill in a move that will fuel leadership speculation.
The International Development Secretary is set to unveil her own plans to unblock the Brexit logjam by agreeing the two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 to allow the UK to develop a "“maximum facilitation” scheme to trade with the European Union.
Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan for a managed no deal that could halve Brexit bill - Telegraph
Penny Mordaunt is expected to become the first Cabinet minister to unveil detailed plans for a “managed" no deal to slash the UK's Brexit bill in a move that will fuel leadership speculation.
The International Development Secretary is set to unveil her own plans to unblock the Brexit logjam by agreeing the two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 to allow the UK to develop a "“maximum facilitation” scheme to trade with the European Union.
Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan for a managed no deal that could halve Brexit bill - Telegraph
Penny Mordaunt is expected to become the first Cabinet minister to unveil detailed plans for a “managed" no deal to slash the UK's Brexit bill in a move that will fuel leadership speculation.
The International Development Secretary is set to unveil her own plans to unblock the Brexit logjam by agreeing the two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 to allow the UK to develop a "“maximum facilitation” scheme to trade with the European Union.
Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan for a managed no deal that could halve Brexit bill - Telegraph
Penny Mordaunt is expected to become the first Cabinet minister to unveil detailed plans for a “managed" no deal to slash the UK's Brexit bill in a move that will fuel leadership speculation.
The International Development Secretary is set to unveil her own plans to unblock the Brexit logjam by agreeing the two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 to allow the UK to develop a "“maximum facilitation” scheme to trade with the European Union.
Ahhh, cake and unicorns, our old friends, it's good to see you again. How we've missed you.
I would be surprised if it survived ten minutes' scrutiny. Starting off by breaking our existing international obligations and antagonising the EU isn't going to deliver the raft of sectoral agreements we need to avoid the worst implications of leaving without a deal.
if May's Deal gets through and we get a sensible Brexit and avoid No Deal
So what you're saying is there's no chance.
Honestly, what do the tories in general and brexit in particular offer the under 40s?
As I said even Ed Miliband won under 35s, however Corbyn won under 47s. It is 45 to 54 year olds who will decide the next general election and those voted Tory by 43% to 40% at the last general election and for Brexit also by the closest to the national average and a majority of them are home owners
It seems that every member of the cabinet is now freestyling on Brexit. May has lost control and will soon be sidelined by whichever faction can build the greater support.
She should sack the lot of them in one last hurrah, and then find a dozen Rorys to fill the cabinet.
As if we need permission from those clowns. It will be happening whether they agree or not.
Going for a unilateral declaration Malc?
Would not bother me , big thing is that these clowns in Westminster cannot dictate with their pathetic "Now is not the Time". It is a decision for Scotland whether they want one or not , the population voted the SNP under that remit. It is supposed to be a union , we are not supposed to be a colony even though treated like one.
It's a union with very centralised powers, not a federation of equal states.
Rob , it is supposedly an equal union and this was heavily pushed in 2014, except as we see they have reverted to dictatorship.
It's demonstrably not an equal union.
Are you still in US or are you back in UK nowadays.
Penny Mordaunt fuels leadership speculation with plan for a managed no deal that could halve Brexit bill - Telegraph
Penny Mordaunt is expected to become the first Cabinet minister to unveil detailed plans for a “managed" no deal to slash the UK's Brexit bill in a move that will fuel leadership speculation.
The International Development Secretary is set to unveil her own plans to unblock the Brexit logjam by agreeing the two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 to allow the UK to develop a "“maximum facilitation” scheme to trade with the European Union.
Ahhh, cake and unicorns, our old friends, it's good to see you again. How we've missed you.
I would be surprised if it survived ten minutes' scrutiny. Starting off by breaking our existing international obligations and antagonising the EU isn't going to deliver the raft of sectoral agreements we need to avoid the worst implications of leaving without a deal.
Is all of the £39bn legal obligations? I thought some paid for continuing membership for 18 months. Anyway, the gain wouldn't immediately materialise as it's due over the next few decades.
Except if EUref2 led to Remain there would be no material change of circumstances enabling the SNP to call induref2 and almost no chance of Yes winning it even if it was called
The oracle has spoken , we will remain a vassal state.
It might well be the case Malcolm. After this debacle, how many more referenda can we cope with?
I sincerely hope there will be one soon in Scotland.
Come to think of it in the two years since the vote, the silence of the remain campaign and hard thinking as to why they lost has been deafening. It's been all illegal leave this, Russia leave that. When will prominent remainers start to acknowledge the reasons they lost last time ?
This is one of the reasons I'm not in favour of another referendum.
Best thing for Rejoin is for the country to experience No Deal.
It'll turn the country into EU federalists.
Maybe I should campaign for remain if EUref 2 comes up.
"Yes I agree it's a disgusting betrayal of democracy that we're in this situation, I can't quite believe it myself. However in all probability our overall economic prospects are, ceteris paribus, enhanced by being in the EU particularly in the short to medium term as our economies are inherently intwined within the single market and customs union right now."
I think that'd be the line to win over the floating voters of Worksop or Coventry.
Landslide for Remain.
I think Deal would win against Remain.
Several of my Tory friends have moved from Remain to supporting Mrs May's deal. I think it is mainly down to loyalty to their party, or specifically to Mrs May who they admire for her tenacity. I can't find supporting data in the polls but I believe that Tory supporters overall have become more Leave than they were at the referendum.
But overall there has been a slight movement to Remain. This must mean that Labour Leave supporters are moving to Remain. So under the surface there may be a lot of switching going on.
I think the new Tory Leavers are much more likely to turn out to vote for Mrs May's Deal than the new Labour Remainers to turn out to vote to Remain.
So Deal would win on a differential turnout. I don't know if this makes any sense?
If it was May's deal v Remain I think May's deal would win comfortably. It would be another referendum on immigration and there is only one way that would go.
Hard to see what Corbyn's Labour would bring to the Remain party.....
I am not sure I ever agreed with Tony Blair on any subject, but this may be a first.
“All sides of this debate recognise that this is the most important decision our country has taken since the end of World War 2; and that after 30 months of negotiation we are in crisis over it with the end of March 2019 deadline looming. It is perfectly clear neither the British people nor their Parliament will unite behind the Prime Minister’s deal. That is why the Government decided not to proceed with the vote. The more people, including the MPs in last week’s debate, study the detail the worse the deal looks and not only because of the backstop issues.
“In these circumstances it is not irresponsible or insulting to put forward an alternative way to achieve resolution. The sensible thing is now to allow Parliament to vote on each of the forms of Brexit canvassed including the Prime Minister’s deal. If they can’t reach agreement then the logical thing is to go back to the people. To describe such a course as an insult is a strange description of what would be the opportunity for them to instruct Parliament as to how to proceed. Far from being anti democratic it would be the opposite, as indeed many senior figures in her party from past and present have been saying.
“What is irresponsible however is to try to steamroller MPs into accepting a deal they genuinely think is a bad one with the threat that if they do not fall into line, the Government will have the country crash out without a deal.
“My call is for Europe as well as our own Parliament to prepare for the possibility now gathering momentum that we may go back to the people in a further referendum. Again this is surely sensible given the impasse we have reached.
“I have always said, and did again in my speech on Friday in London, that I personally sympathise with the PM’s heavy burden in doing her job. I do not disrespect her at all. I understand her frustration. But I profoundly believe that the course she is pursuing will not work and is emphatically not in the National interest. And that’s the reason I am speaking out and shall continue to do so.”
Why is it that every politician is quick to talk about the national interest when advocating any course of action except the possibility of their own resignation. May has failed. She cannot command a majority in the HOC for her Brexit policy; she has proved that she cannot negotiate - with the EU or anyone else; she cannot campaign; she cannot lead her party in the next election; she has no domestic policy; her Gov has been found to be in contempt of Parliament. She should resign - in the national interest.
Just to say - Labour are waiting for the right moment for calling VNOC / start overtly backing a second referendum. There is nothing to be gained from activating their killer blows at the wrong time. You'll note it is only Corbyn opponents suggesting he is dragging his feet.
Why is it that every politician is quick to talk about the national interest when advocating any course of action except the possibility of their own resignation. May has failed. She cannot command a majority in the HOC for her Brexit policy; she has proved that she cannot negotiate - with the EU or anyone else; she cannot campaign; she cannot lead her party in the next election; she has no domestic policy; her Gov has been found to be in contempt of Parliament. She should resign - in the national interest.
When you hear a politician say the words 'the national interest' just prefix them with the words 'what I think is',
Is all of the £39bn legal obligations? I thought some paid for continuing membership for 18 months.
Latest estimate is 42.2bn euros (£37.9bn atm), consisting of:
e18.1bn for the transition period (ie access to the single market) e21.3bn for Reste a liquider, ie payments we've already committed to e2.8bn other stuff (mostly pensions iirc).
Most is due in the first four years, then the rest (something like e10bn) dribbling out over the following 40ish years
These payments have basically all been negotiated down to the bone, and there's nothing left to be trimmed.
Is all of the £39bn legal obligations? I thought some paid for continuing membership for 18 months.
Latest estimate is 42.2bn euros (£37.9bn atm), consisting of:
e18.1bn for the transition period (ie access to the single market) e21.3bn for Reste a liquider, ie payments we've already committed to e2.8bn other stuff (mostly pensions iirc).
Most is due in the first four years, then the rest (something like e10bn) dribbling out over the next 45 years or so.
These payments have basically all been negotiated down to the bone, and there's nothing left to be trimmed.
In a no deal scenario €18bn won't be due, which I think is what Mordaunt is referring to. Have to say, it's quite a bit lower than the Economist predicted.. didn't they say it'd be over €100bn?
He was obviously listening to "There will always be an England" as he penned that
No. Britain includes Scotland and Wales as well. So Land of Hope and Glory.
Hmmmmmmmmm not aware of anything Scottish about "Land of Hope and Glory", or Welsh for that matter.
It's not Scottish, Welsh, N. Irish or English so good for all UK.
Land of hope and glory, mother of the free How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee? Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet
Land of hope and glory, mother of the free How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee? Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet
Just to say - Labour are waiting for the right moment for calling VNOC / start overtly backing a second referendum. There is nothing to be gained from activating their killer blows at the wrong time. You'll note it is only Corbyn opponents suggesting he is dragging his feet.
Labour MPs like Jess Phillips show leadership. Others follow the mob, sorry 'respect the voters'.
Chris Patten is on R4 shortly to discuss 'the Maoists in my party', ahem sorry, ERG. These elder statesmen are only coming on air because this is a disaster; the UK is now being made fun of around the world ...
The say the darkest hour is just before the dawn and how apposite that seems today. Yesterday my brooding anxiety over Brexit bubbled over into outright panic and I was able to cope with the evening hours only by resorting to strong drink. It worked albeit at considerable cost. Panic over but I crawled into bed at midnight feeling numb and faintly nauseous, devoid of all hope for a positive outcome to any of this. And then what happens? I get up this morning (eventually) and the first thing I learn is that Penny Mordaunt (yes THE Penny Mordaunt) has crafted a plan to sort things. Cometh the hour or what. And would you believe it, just as I finished reading this very definition of a feel-good news story the sun came out here in Hampstead.
Just to say - Labour are waiting for the right moment for calling VNOC / start overtly backing a second referendum. There is nothing to be gained from activating their killer blows at the wrong time. You'll note it is only Corbyn opponents suggesting he is dragging his feet.
Corbyn himself is not actually too bothered whether we go crashing out or remain in the EU. He probably squares the catastrophe of crashing out by believing that the damage done to the country will be counter-acted by the benefits of a future Labour government, as such a catastrophe will undoubtedly lead to Tories being held responsible and being decimated at the next GE.
First and foremost in his mind is probably that the Tories need to be made to totally own the whole debacle of Brexit and therefore probably does not actually want a GE just yet, which is why he is shying away from a VONC which might lead to one.
My best guess is that May will eventually have to either give in and call a second referendum amid cries of betrayal from her Leave voters or she will revoke Article 50 with agreement from Corbyn to whip his MP's to abstain and therefore ensure that this "betrayal" is passed mainly due to Tory votes rather than Labour.
I don't expect this to happen in the next month or so and will probably involve the EU agreeing to a short extension of Article 50 to enable either course of action.
I think Hunt would be a far more credible leader than Boris in the event of a no deal Brexit.
Perhaps. "Far more" is pushing it. Jeremy Hunt has shown himself to be even less principled than Johnson (really!), which is possibly an attribute when dealing with "no deal" Brexit. There's no ship Rat Hunt won't desert.
In a no deal scenario €18bn won't be due, which I think is what Mordaunt is referring to.
I suppose the Telegraph may have got confused, but they do say her plan involves 20bn of payments for a transitional period - ie single market access until end 2020, same as May's deal. Perhaps there's more to it, but they specify it would half the total bill.
If we proposed that the EU would (understandably) tell us to get lost. No transition, no future trade deal, nothing.
Have to say, it's quite a bit lower than the Economist predicted.. didn't they say it'd be over €100bn?
The original proposal was supposedly something like e100bn up front, then e50bn of that (hopefully) being repaid over time. That was pure divorce bill though iirc, so add approx e10bn for each year of transition.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
Depends on which poll you look at. Latest Opinium implies a 1.7% swing to Labour which would result in 24 Labour gains from Tories. I would also expect Labour to pick up Copeland as a consequence of by election unwind.. That would put Labour on 287. Gains from SNP could well take them to circa 300 seats. Tories would be on circa 290.
Depends on which poll you look at. Latest Opinium implies a 1.7% swing to Labour which would result in 24 Labour gains from Tories. I would also expect Labour to pick up Copeland as a consequence of by election unwind.. That would put Labour on 287. Gains from SNP could well take them to circa 300 seats. Tories would be on circa 290.
Depends on which poll you look at. Latest Opinium implies a 1.7% swing to Labour which would result in 24 Labour gains from Tories. I would also expect Labour to pick up Copeland as a consequence of by election unwind.. That would put Labour on 287. Gains from SNP could well take them to circa 300 seats. Tories would be on circa 290.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
That would probably be the optimum outcome for the country at this point. Corbo's "voyenniy kommunizm" moderated by the acidic opportunism of the Scottish Kingdom Independence Party and very probably no brexit.
Is there polling evidence for this or is it just wishful thinking on your part?
Most recent Panelbase has SNP on 37% with Labour and Tories both on 26%. .In recent years SNP has consistently underperformed its poll ratings. In a Westminster election SNP unlikely to poll above circa 33%.
Holding the country to ransom is an utter disgrace. If other Tories cannot see how toxic this is to their party then they deserve to disappear as a party.
There is no polling evidence it is damaging either TM or the party. Her 47% approval rating in Opinium yesterday was the highest since she was elected in 2016 while Corbyn falls further and further down tne ratings.
In truth everyone is frustrated with each other and we have the most abject politicians in the HOC I can recall
I respect you a great deal as a poster. But you are taking far too much comfort from the polls now. The Tories are making themselves toxic, whatever the opinion polls currently say. There are lots of voters, like me, who might be persuaded to vote Tory to keep out Corbyn. But not anymore. I may vote for the Lib Dems or, a la Meeks, abstain in person. (In truth, in London my vote no longer matters. But in Cumbria where I will likely be living by 2022 the Tory MP has a majority of 2000 so my vote will matter there.)
It does not take many Tory or potential Tory voters to sit on their hands for Labour to win. There are plenty of voters who feel furious about what is happening on the domestic agenda e.g. the continuing mess with the railways and would be OK with Labour doing something about a service which causes a nuisance every working day. Or Universal Credit. If the Tories continue as they are, with the delusions that a no-deal and likely chaotic Brexit will be all right on the night if they can't force agreement on a deal which no-one wants, then they will likely lose a lot of votes, no matter how awful they might think Corbyn is.
I no longer have any patience with the Tory party's nervous breakdown. I won't be the only voter who feels this way.
The most likely outcome of an election tomorrow is the Tories largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP
Depends on which poll you look at. Latest Opinium implies a 1.7% swing to Labour which would result in 24 Labour gains from Tories. I would also expect Labour to pick up Copeland as a consequence of by election unwind.. That would put Labour on 287. Gains from SNP could well take them to circa 300 seats. Tories would be on circa 290.
LOL, they will lose to SNP not gain, do you realise how unpopular they are in Scotland.
Very true. A 20 point lead for Labour would be the likely result for almost any successor
If only he would step down and accept that, in doing so, his legacy would be that the Tories could deservedly be out of office for two or three terms.
Not sure about that. His successor (if the change happened now) would share his radical left politics but would not have the 'authentic old geezer' aura that appeals to many. That spells a drop in net support not a rise. I think if the people powering the Corbyn project judged that replacing him would gain 20 points, or even close, they would be counselling him out.
Is there polling evidence for this or is it just wishful thinking on your part?
Most recent Panelbase has SNP on 37% with Labour and Tories both on 26%. .In recent years SNP has consistently underperformed its poll ratings. In a Westminster election SNP unlikely to poll above circa 33%.
Comments
My fear of a chaotic Brexit followed by a Corbyn government is that we will lose some of those restraints at the very time when we have a party led by people who do not fundamentally and instinctively believe in liberal democracy. That is a very dangerous combination.
Now I may be wrong and overstating the risk. I hope I am. But it is a risk and one which ought to be taken more seriously than it is.
And now I have to go. Have a good day all.
Yes, we do accept limits but those limits do not necessarily require us to belong to a body dedicated to forming a federal polity. Much of the ECHR is drawn from both English law and the UN's UDHR.
Secondly, Corbyn's policies may cause economic hardships for the country. In which case his government will be voted out at the next General Election. That's a mechanism which works well in this country, particularly with FPTP (we tend to lambast FPTP but it does mitigate one of the downsides of PR, e.g. vote for whoever you please, get Merkel).
If however, he decided to become President for Life and abolish elections, I'd be out there with my pitchfork and torch. But I don't think he does. I think Labour are simply left wing in the tradition of the '82 manifesto and that is neither a sin nor a threat to this country.
It is Corbyn giving the Tories a chance of a 4th term much as it was Kinnock who gave them a 4th win in 1992
Honestly, what do the tories in general and brexit in particular offer the under 40s?
Admins, sort out peoples' blockquotes please !
All to help his leadership ambitions.
And they wonder why people have a negative opinion of politicians.
Penny Mordaunt is expected to become the first Cabinet minister to unveil detailed plans for a “managed" no deal to slash the UK's Brexit bill in a move that will fuel leadership speculation.
The International Development Secretary is set to unveil her own plans to unblock the Brexit logjam by agreeing the two-year transition period after Britain leaves the EU on March 29 to allow the UK to develop a "“maximum facilitation” scheme to trade with the European Union.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/14/penny-mordaunt-fuels-leadership-speculation-plan-managed-no/
Why should Remainers or Leavers trust him now If his only principle on Brexit seems to be advancing his career?
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum
She should sack the lot of them in one last hurrah, and then find a dozen Rorys to fill the cabinet.
These are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others.
“All sides of this debate recognise that this is the most important decision our country has taken since the end of World War 2; and that after 30 months of negotiation we are in crisis over it with the end of March 2019 deadline looming. It is perfectly clear neither the British people nor their Parliament will unite behind the Prime Minister’s deal. That is why the Government decided not to proceed with the vote. The more people, including the MPs in last week’s debate, study the detail the worse the deal looks and not only because of the backstop issues.
“In these circumstances it is not irresponsible or insulting to put forward an alternative way to achieve resolution. The sensible thing is now to allow Parliament to vote on each of the forms of Brexit canvassed including the Prime Minister’s deal. If they can’t reach agreement then the logical thing is to go back to the people. To describe such a course as an insult is a strange description of what would be the opportunity for them to instruct Parliament as to how to proceed. Far from being anti democratic it would be the opposite, as indeed many senior figures in her party from past and present have been saying.
“What is irresponsible however is to try to steamroller MPs into accepting a deal they genuinely think is a bad one with the threat that if they do not fall into line, the Government will have the country crash out without a deal.
“My call is for Europe as well as our own Parliament to prepare for the possibility now gathering momentum that we may go back to the people in a further referendum. Again this is surely sensible given the impasse we have reached.
“I have always said, and did again in my speech on Friday in London, that I personally sympathise with the PM’s heavy burden in doing her job. I do not disrespect her at all. I understand her frustration. But I profoundly believe that the course she is pursuing will not work and is emphatically not in the National interest. And that’s the reason I am speaking out and shall continue to do so.”
- Tony Blair exPM
e18.1bn for the transition period (ie access to the single market)
e21.3bn for Reste a liquider, ie payments we've already committed to
e2.8bn other stuff (mostly pensions iirc).
Most is due in the first four years, then the rest (something like e10bn) dribbling out over the following 40ish years
These payments have basically all been negotiated down to the bone, and there's nothing left to be trimmed.
Not personally very convinced by this. But that seems to be what some in Labour are saying.
Land of hope and glory, mother of the free
How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee?
Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet
Land of hope and glory, mother of the free
How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee?
Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet
Chris Patten is on R4 shortly to discuss 'the Maoists in my party', ahem sorry, ERG. These elder statesmen are only coming on air because this is a disaster; the UK is now being made fun of around the world ...
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/saturday-night-live-sketch-theresa-may-brexit-matt-damon-david-cameron-a8685666.html
and it's even worse that the impressionists are so poor compared to Jon Culshaw or Jan Ravens.
First and foremost in his mind is probably that the Tories need to be made to totally own the whole debacle of Brexit and therefore probably does not actually want a GE just yet, which is why he is shying away from a VONC which might lead to one.
My best guess is that May will eventually have to either give in and call a second referendum amid cries of betrayal from her Leave voters or she will revoke Article 50 with agreement from Corbyn to whip his MP's to abstain and therefore ensure that this "betrayal" is passed mainly due to Tory votes rather than Labour.
I don't expect this to happen in the next month or so and will probably involve the EU agreeing to a short extension of Article 50 to enable either course of action.
Like Opinium the Tories get a boost after her victory.
CHOO CHOO.
If we proposed that the EU would (understandably) tell us to get lost. No transition, no future trade deal, nothing. The original proposal was supposedly something like e100bn up front, then e50bn of that (hopefully) being repaid over time. That was pure divorce bill though iirc, so add approx e10bn for each year of transition.
If only he would step down and accept that, in doing so, his legacy would be that the Tories could deservedly be out of office for two or three terms.
“Why does this hotel room come with a bible instead of an HDMI cable?”
I wonder what impact that will have on May’s standing with the public because she is vehemently opposed to it.
A second referendum would of course provoke an almighty row over the actual question.
What’s a HDMI cable? Airplaying is what the youth use with TVs.
(apols for the bot translation).
https://twitter.com/CatalansForYes/status/1074270999917539328