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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling
My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts.
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If Ruthy Davidson wasn't so awesome we'd be having PM Jezza right now.
There will not be an election till 2022. And May will not fight it.
We know this, as May has told us this. She would not be wrong or lying, would she?
1) Approved by Parliament
2) Meets the electoral commission's guidelines
3) Article 50 extension granted unanimously by the Council
"No Deal" fails all three.
And so am I
It will happen again.
Who in their right mind would want to lead the "deal" campaign?
May could of course still lead the Tories in any early snap general election before 2022 if she loses a VONC
CHAOS WITH ED MILIBAND!
A reasonable assumption.
Are the ERG mad enough to kamikaze their own government? Of *course* they are.
And that's why people are worried.
The SNP will then effectively run both Scotland and the UK.
Who needs independence?
You can't go around criticising Corbyn, what would the guild of complete-asses have to say!
Abstaining a confidence vote the government wins might let them get away with a suspension of the whip, but if the vote goes down they sure as hell won’t be wearing blue rosettes at the resulting election.
The only hope for the Tories is if May puts the national interest first for once, and resigns paving the way for a new leader (other than Boris).
There was very little net movement of 2015 Tory voters to Labour
May beat Corbyn still last time and the only alternative who gets more people saying they will vote Tory under them than May is Boris. Almost all the others poll worse than May, especially Hunt and Gove
They use Euroscepticism as the bench mark of everything. I once remonstrated to a Tory MEP in the run up to the 2010 GE that he and his Eurosceptic colleagues continually reiterating their European crusade made it less likely that we could affect a change of Government to rejuvenate the economy. The MEP, who later defected to UKIP simply thought the Lisbon treaty and our role in Europe was of paramount importance and the appalling performance of the economy at that time, which had sunk me financially and career wise was of less importance.
Brexit politicians are similar to Islamic fundamentalists, they are totally idealistic in their outlook.
But that’s not what you meant, is it?
The ERG is economic armageddon and an image of the UK almost based on our colonial days long gone.
Remain betrays the referendum
So all in all Deal for me but if not remain
Interesting tonight Peston reports TM has had a disaster when if he had been listening, and was a honest journalist, he would have reported the EU launched a broadside on the factions in the HOC while praising TM. Indeed leader after leader complimented her, but had a go at mps and especially at ERG
And tonight TM is laughing and having fun in her constitiency at a social gathering. This woman has type 1 diabetes (I have type 2) and her stamina is medically defying all logic
It will hang on whether the ultras really mean it when they say they would rather remain than back the deal. If they do, Remain will walk it. If they don't, there might be a contest.
I noticed that IDS voted against TM the other day after claiming a few weeks ago he would always be loyal to a Conservative leader.
Even the senior Brexiteers, who have held Cabinet positions are acting in an irrational and corrosive manner toward the Conservative Party. They have turned into fundamentalists and are happy to blow up their own Government, the economy and Party to further their anti-European crusade.
Yes.
It is the default position. The risk is very real.
My position has always been quite clear. I want the UK to be independent of the governance of the EU, and the jurisdiction of its courts. I don't want the UK to be subject to wide-ranging backroom trade deals that have the potential to be bad for consumers/taxpayers, either entered into on our own behalf, or as part of the EU. I do not believe that preferential trade deals are necessary for economic success, or can prevent economic failure. Long term success can only come from people and businesses providing goods and services that can either be successfully exported or displace imported goods and services - on their own merit.
As such, of course I support WTO Brexit. It is wise to leave, find our feet, and enter into any trade deals with the EU or anyone else only with a great deal of circumspection. Doing so now is doing so on the basis of panic, and is likely to result in a poor outcome.
I fundamentally disagree with the founders of the EU - people like Monnet or Schuman - who advocated a United States of Europe and helped to found the EEC to achieve that aim. But I also have huge admiration for them because they believed they were acting in the best interests of the people and were willing to put all their energies into pursuing their dream.
Motivations and beliefs matter. It is sad that these days some people seem to judge politicians on the basis of whether they are doing what is right for their party rather than what is right for the people (in their eyes)
The only reason the ERG cling to the hope that it can be done instantly through creative destruction is because they don't have the confidence to believe they can convince the public to go with them on the longer journey. Yet the drastic course they are advocating will - rightly - destroy their credibility and reputations for a generation, whether it comes to pass or not.
It would not surprise me that they don't support the Government. I think a Tory MP Rupert Allison (Known as Nigel West the writer) in the 1990's failed to support the Government in a confidence vote in 1993 IIRC. He actually stood in 1997 but was defeated. The Major Government of course was not defeated, if it had of fallen obviously it would be seen as an impediment to his standing under Conservative colours.
If the current Government fell I would expect those who did not support it to find themselves excluded by the party, which of course could mean a job for life and chance at Ministerial work being curtailed.
The backstop is wrong as a matter of principle to a number of people. That doesn't make them crazy.
They're not my cup of tea and i think their obsessiveness is generally destructive, but ultra right wing (with the historical connotations) is really not an accurate description.
We leave on May's terms, we see if we can create a deal. If we fail, we go back in. If we succeed, off we go.
Simple. 2016 satisfied. Something for all of us to hope for.