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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reminder: Next PB gathering – Friday April 19th – Dirty Dic

SystemSystem Posts: 12,058
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Reminder: Next PB gathering – Friday April 19th – Dirty Dicks

As posted a couple of weeks ago the next PB gathering has been arranged for this coming Friday starting at 6.30pm at the historic Dirty Dicks pub in Bishopsgate – just across the road from the main entrance to Liverpool Street station.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First! But I can't be there...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    If the BBC were an honourable organisation, which it is not, it would play an understated and placatory piece of music instead of "Ding, Dong".

    I rather have this piece with voiceover in mind.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kx3W4F80L04&list=PLA7BB4D62DE1EA90B&index=30
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    For once I agree with Kevin Maguire:

    "BBC should've given the Libyan School of Economics(LSE) a big donation and it might've received a degree instead of griping"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    For anyone in London for Mrs Thatcher's funeral, the Freedom Association have organised a 'tribute event' (speeches) at the Pavillion End pub after the funeral.

    http://www.pavilionendpub.co.uk

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100212016/funeral/
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @AveryLP Get over it man. The Tories sbould be thinking about containing the looming May 2nd disaster not getting worked up about clips from movies three quarters of a century ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    AveryLP- First, the BBC have just played 'I'm in love with Maggie T' in full when it entered the charts at no35, second 'Ding dong' is probably not going to be no1 anyway and the BBC will only play an extract!
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "First, the BBC have just played 'I'm in love with Maggie T' in full when it entered the charts at no35"

    Stupid, stupid decision. Not playing 'Ding Dong' might be justifiable, but they needed to be seen to be even-handed. As Eddie Mair pointed out, they've opened up a can of worms.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited April 2013
    I wonder whether the football riots not really seen since the slash and burn era of Thatcher are an unconscious tribute to a time which they felt she represented. I can't be the only person who feels an ugliness in the air. A sort of mid 80's stench?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I'm not sure those who have downloaded "I'm in love with Maggie T" have quite twigged that the title is ironic....much foolishness all round - if people want to boost the profits of tax-avoiding multinational corporations let them! I have little doubt that Thatcher would have found the downloading of a song from a 74 year old musical - which teaches the values of courage and the importance of family - highly amusing. Such are her opponents brought low...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    I wonder whether the football riots not really seen since the slash and burn era of Thatcher are an unconscious tribute to a time which they felt she represented. I can't be the only person who feels an ugliness in the air. A sort of mid 80's stench?

    No Roger.

    Newcastle lost to Sunderland.

    It's as simple as that.

    Perhaps though time to pause and ponder the wisdom of a parachuted in MP to Tyneside who thought joining the board of Sunderland smart...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    CarlottaVance - True, but the Nonsensibles were certainly grateful for the profits!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Now up to No 3 in the charts, Ding Dong on soon
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    I'm not sure those who have downloaded "I'm in love with Maggie T" have quite twigged that the title is ironic....

    Carlotta, I have downloaded 346 copies of the song.

    And now you tell me it is ironic!

    I guess the only solution is to send all the copies to Roger.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew Marr: "I'm lucky to be alive".

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNfLQAJ_Yug
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    almost like a primary school history lesson now
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I was down in London earlier in the month and I will not be back down for a while. I have to say that trains ran on time even though neither Mussolini or Hitler is in No. 10.

    Have fun everyone.

    Bev.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Fantastic handling of the 'Ding Dong' scandal by the BBC.

    It deserves our respect and their reward.

    When the rest of the BBC is privatised in Cameron's second term, I predict Radio 1 will be retained as a state-owned national treasure.

    Good old Auntie!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Radio 1 just spent 2 minutes explaining why they wouldn't play a 55 second track....oh well, those who wanted to get it to number 1 failed and succeeded in dragging the BBC into an unholy row and made them look foolish. I strongly suspect Maggie & Denis, wherever they are, are laughing like drains!
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Marr: "I'm lucky to be alive".

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNfLQAJ_Yug

    Yes he certainly is. I often push myself to the limits,but Mrs Jayfdee is using this to restrain my more extreme challenges. Seriously though,there but for the grace of god. He does look remarkably good,and his mental capacity is apparently not affected,I hope he makes a full recovery and returns to his Sunday show.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Oh - had thought it was Friday gone... wondered why no photo evidence. Meh. I have friends down in Brighton for a gathering. Fridays are good though!

    @Carlotta I've been out this aftie - what's the latest on Chuks?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    CarlottaVance - And better still Maggie managed to get the BBC 'Tebbit's Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation' to play 'I love Margaret Thatcher' in full!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,465
    I'm inclined to leave worrying about BBC music selection to the Daily Mail.

    Can't make Dirty Dkick's - I've taken two weeks' leave to work full time on the Notts elections. They're not as easy as they look - lots of dug-in LibDems who will be an interesting challenge (because many centre-left people got in the habit of voting for LDs in County elections and Labour in Parliamentary ones). But we shouldn't lose ground in Broxtowe constituency, since our current score of county councillors is, ahem, zero.

    Thanks to Mike for adding my blog to the link list!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carola said:


    @Carlotta I've been out this aftie - what's the latest on Chuks?

    Nick Watts singing his praises on the Sunday Politics as a Labour star and a "serious politician" - as I observed at the time...

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited April 2013
    @Avery. "Carlotta, I have downloaded 346 copies of the song."

    I think that makes you the major shareholder. A little known fact about the Notsensibles is that they originate from Burnley and were founded by someone called Roger.

    Meanwhile just to put it in a historical political context around the time when it exploded on the punk scene to sales approaching 100 I was doing my first and (so far) only PPB for the Lib Dems appropriately titled 'Maggie's Broken Britain'.

    If only we'd known of the song when we made the broadcast we'd have had the perfect background track for the film.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Roger said:

    @Avery. "Carlotta, I have downloaded 346 copies of the song."

    I think that makes you the major shareholder. A little known fact about the Notsensibles is that they originate from Burnley and were founded by someone called Roger.

    Meanwhile just to put it in a historical political context around the time when it exploded on the punk scene to sales approaching 100 I was doing my first and (so far) only PPB for the Lib Dems appropriately titled 'Maggie's Broken Britain'.

    If only we'd known of the song when we made the broadcast we'd have had the perfect background track for the film.

    A PPB for the Lib Dems on the subject of decay?

    Surely the irony means you should screen in Venice rather than Cannes.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,189
    Good moaning! I brung you a massage: "Dong Ding the Watch is Dud" is number tea in the OK sungles chert!
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:


    @Carlotta I've been out this aftie - what's the latest on Chuks?

    Nick Watts singing his praises on the Sunday Politics as a Labour star and a "serious politician" - as I observed at the time...

    Thanks ;)

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.
    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013

    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    What didn't make what?

    What an imbecilic assumption.

    SeanT said:

    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Oh dear, are you disappointed it didn't make it?

    CHORTLE.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm afraid I'm having to take an extra trip to Hungary this coming weekend to cater for water in the basement. I'm disappointed, because I was planning to come to the gathering this time.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.

    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,076

    Roger said:

    I wonder whether the football riots not really seen since the slash and burn era of Thatcher are an unconscious tribute to a time which they felt she represented. I can't be the only person who feels an ugliness in the air. A sort of mid 80's stench?

    No Roger.

    Newcastle lost to Sunderland.

    It's as simple as that.

    Perhaps though time to pause and ponder the wisdom of a parachuted in MP to Tyneside who thought joining the board of Sunderland smart...

    Actually, according to local sources, South Shields residents interested in football divide almost equally between Sunderland and Newcastle. So D Milliband's decision might not have been so silly.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    But took enough from the Tories to deny them any chance.

    By the way, enough Labour supporters stayed with the LD's - the supreme sacrifice - to give the Tories a good drubbing.

    May 2nd should be fun to watch !
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    But took enough from the Tories to deny them any chance.

    By the way, enough Labour supporters stayed with the LD's - the supreme sacrifice - to give the Tories a good drubbing.

    May 2nd should be fun to watch !
    ?
    The LDs lost votes to Labour in Eastleigh.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    In FPTP winning is what matters.

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    But took enough from the Tories to deny them any chance.

    By the way, enough Labour supporters stayed with the LD's - the supreme sacrifice - to give the Tories a good drubbing.

    May 2nd should be fun to watch !
    ?
    The LDs lost votes to Labour in Eastleigh.


  • At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Roger said:

    I wonder whether the football riots not really seen since the slash and burn era of Thatcher are an unconscious tribute to a time which they felt she represented. I can't be the only person who feels an ugliness in the air. A sort of mid 80's stench?

    No Roger.

    Newcastle lost to Sunderland.

    It's as simple as that.

    Perhaps though time to pause and ponder the wisdom of a parachuted in MP to Tyneside who thought joining the board of Sunderland smart...

    Actually, according to local sources, South Shields residents interested in football divide almost equally between Sunderland and Newcastle. So D Milliband's decision might not have been so silly.

    The Stadium of Light is north of the River Wear, and close to South Shields. I believe that David Miliband was helpful in gaining the site for the club.

    DiCanio really let the football do the talking yesterday. Wins like that will soon stop any criticism! As a Leicester City fan I can only look on with envy, our playoff hopes died on Friday night.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,189

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    Don't the LDs usually get third place in recent General Elections?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,635
    edited April 2013
    O/T - What with the 80s music reference to Duran Duran's Hungry Like The Wolf, I can confirm that I did not write last night's episode of Doctor Who.

    A fitting way to unite the country after the divisiveness of the last week would be to make "Hungry Like the Wolf" number one in the charts next week.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    Lenin said rather a lot, Surbiton.

    This is my favourite piece of his wisdom:

    Behind the epistemological scholasticism of empirio-criticism one must not fail to see the struggle of parties in philosophy, a struggle which in the last analysis reflects the tendencies and ideology of the antagonistic classes in modern society.

    Right on the marx as always.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,189

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    But took enough from the Tories to deny them any chance.

    By the way, enough Labour supporters stayed with the LD's - the supreme sacrifice - to give the Tories a good drubbing.

    May 2nd should be fun to watch !
    ?
    The LDs lost votes to Labour in Eastleigh.

    Not really, Lab hardly advanced on their GE 2010 vote (around 10%). The LDs lost huge number of votes to UKIP, almost as many as did the Cons.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
    That might explain the LDs losing votes, not UKIP attracting them.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Ding Dong 52,605 copies
    I'm in Love 8,768

    #1 was at 58,321
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AveryLP said:

    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    Lenin said rather a lot, Surbiton.

    This is my favourite piece of his wisdom:

    Behind the epistemological scholasticism of empirio-criticism one must not fail to see the struggle of parties in philosophy, a struggle which in the last analysis reflects the tendencies and ideology of the antagonistic classes in modern society.

    Right on the marx as always.
    How on earth did he manage to get any following with that sort of lingo? How is is his polling with women?

    What he needs is a Moscow Mockney Makeover and to listen to a few focus groups. Perhaps even to appear on Mumsnet to discuss his favourite biscuit.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/apr/14/4g-auction-national-audit-office

    4G sale to be investigated by the Audit Office. Not the Fraud Squad.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699


    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
    That might explain the LDs losing votes, not UKIP attracting them.

    It is not a proven fact that UKIP took more votes at Eastleigh from 2010 Lib Dems than 2010 Conservatives . There is one poll that indicates that but the 2 other last constituency polls indicate that it was not true .

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
    That might explain the LDs losing votes, not UKIP attracting them.

    It is not a proven fact that UKIP took more votes at Eastleigh from 2010 Lib Dems than 2010 Conservatives . There is one poll that indicates that but the 2 other last constituency polls indicate that it was not true .

    The Ashcroft callback poll is the closest thing to an exit poll for Eastleigh that I'm aware of.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/we-know-how-eastleigh-voted-heres-why/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,189

    O/T - What with the 80s music reference to Duran Duran's Hungry Like The Wolf, I can confirm that I did not write last night's episode of Doctor Who.

    A fitting way to unite the country after the divisiveness of the last week would be to make "Hungry Like the Wolf" number one in the charts next week.

    Actually, this song was UK number one exactly 30 years ago:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4d7Wp9kKjA
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699


    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
    That might explain the LDs losing votes, not UKIP attracting them.

    It is not a proven fact that UKIP took more votes at Eastleigh from 2010 Lib Dems than 2010 Conservatives . There is one poll that indicates that but the 2 other last constituency polls indicate that it was not true .

    The Ashcroft callback poll is the closest thing to an exit poll for Eastleigh that I'm aware of.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/we-know-how-eastleigh-voted-heres-why/
    But it is still a poll and subject to M of E and sampling errors . Indeed according to the sample the Conservatives came 2nd !!!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    Looks like my laying Woods was safe enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    MikeS - Maggie, when told by Connor Burns of the latest poll data, replied 'that is not far enough behind at this stage'. She too lost mid-term polls, indeed by more than Cameron is doing, and local election polls, but come general election day she came out on top. There is still 2 years to go and if Cameron can win back the UKIP voters he lost plus add a few Cleggite LDs he can eke out a majority. It is not over until the fat lady sings, and a good performance in the Euros next year by Dave and an underperfomance by UKIP coupled with a more left-wing LD leader could change things dramatically!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Croatia had Euro elections today. Few people turned out.
    First results indicate 32.something% for centre-right opposition parties (6 seats), 31.something% for centre-left government coalition (5 seats). Final seat goes to Labour Party (6%)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
    That might explain the LDs losing votes, not UKIP attracting them.

    It is not a proven fact that UKIP took more votes at Eastleigh from 2010 Lib Dems than 2010 Conservatives . There is one poll that indicates that but the 2 other last constituency polls indicate that it was not true .

    The Ashcroft callback poll is the closest thing to an exit poll for Eastleigh that I'm aware of.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/we-know-how-eastleigh-voted-heres-why/
    But it is still a poll and subject to M of E and sampling errors . Indeed according to the sample the Conservatives came 2nd !!!!!
    Do you think the LDs will get more votes than UKIP on May 2nd?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,189
    edited April 2013
    It's here! Better late than never!

    Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday:

    Op Ed: Maggie - The Sunil on Sunday marks the death of our greatest PM since Churchill
    Mike Smithson refuses to confirm if he's still a member of the LibDem-ocracy!
    PB's tim denies he's really anti-Thatcherite Derek Hatton in disguise!
    Jack W laughs off claims he received Baronetcy when Maggie resigned!
    North Korea: Is Kim Jong-Un a bad advert for the hereditary principle?
    All the latest film reviews with our very own Mark Commode!
    Sean T's latest travel rantings writings also reviewed!
    And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,380
    HYUFD said:

    MikeS - Maggie, when told by Connor Burns of the latest poll data, replied 'that is not far enough behind at this stage'. She too lost mid-term polls, indeed by more than Cameron is doing, and local election polls, but come general election day she came out on top. There is still 2 years to go and if Cameron can win back the UKIP voters he lost plus add a few Cleggite LDs he can eke out a majority. It is not over until the fat lady sings, and a good performance in the Euros next year by Dave and an underperfomance by UKIP coupled with a more left-wing LD leader could change things dramatically!

    Slightly worryingly for Pratchett fans I don't think it is a million to one shot yet but we might get there.

    A key feature of any tory recovery is going to be a Lib Dem recovery taking back some of their lefty support from Labour. Not sure how likely that is with the current leadership but if Labour pick up the best part of 10% from the Lib Dems plus their Brown core support of 30% it really is all over. The tories need more than half of those to return to the yellows to be in with a chance.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

    As the Lib Dems are in contention in around half the seats your 90% figure is bullsh*t
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699


    At Eastleigh, UKIP took more votes from the LDs than the Conservatives.

    You don't think the former MP getting convicted for perverting the course of justice may have had the teensiest-weensiest influence on that?
    That might explain the LDs losing votes, not UKIP attracting them.

    It is not a proven fact that UKIP took more votes at Eastleigh from 2010 Lib Dems than 2010 Conservatives . There is one poll that indicates that but the 2 other last constituency polls indicate that it was not true .

    The Ashcroft callback poll is the closest thing to an exit poll for Eastleigh that I'm aware of.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/we-know-how-eastleigh-voted-heres-why/
    But it is still a poll and subject to M of E and sampling errors . Indeed according to the sample the Conservatives came 2nd !!!!!
    Do you think the LDs will get more votes than UKIP on May 2nd?
    Possibly , it will be close IMHO .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Thanks Andrea, we are also expecting the Liberal leadership result in Canada about 11pm our time, with Trudeau expected to win. The Venezualan presidential election also announces tonight
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    It's here! Better late than never!

    Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday:

    Op Ed: Maggie - The Sunil on Sunday marks the death of our greatest PM since Churchill
    Mike Smithson refuses to confirm if he's still a member of the LiBDem-ocracy!
    PB's tim denies he's really anti-Thatcherite Derek Hatton in disguise!
    Jack W laughs off claims he received Baronetcy when Maggie resigned!
    North Korea: Is Kim Jong-Un a bad advert for the hereditary principle?
    All the latest film reviews with our very own Mark Commode!
    Sean T's latest travel rantings writings also reviewed!
    And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!

    I think I may have found the perfect woman for you. Former Labour MP Jane Griffiths, her twitter feed is full of railway stations. :-)

    https://twitter.com/janestheone
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    HYUFD said:

    MikeS - Maggie, when told by Connor Burns of the latest poll data, replied 'that is not far enough behind at this stage'. She too lost mid-term polls, indeed by more than Cameron is doing, and local election polls, but come general election day she came out on top. There is still 2 years to go and if Cameron can win back the UKIP voters he lost plus add a few Cleggite LDs he can eke out a majority. It is not over until the fat lady sings, and a good performance in the Euros next year by Dave and an underperfomance by UKIP coupled with a more left-wing LD leader could change things dramatically!

    True, though Ed M in my view is mild favourite not least because the system is in his favour. However, should Salmond pull off a surprise "yes" in Autumn 2014 that's Dave's boundary changes double plus achieved via the back door. By the way what would happen? Would Scotland take part in May 2015 and then have all 59 MPs abstain on virtually everything till they were hived off ??
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ding Dong gain Scotland

    It topped the chart there
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

    The libDems currently have 484 seats, are you forecasting that up or down?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    David L - In my view Labour will have a floor of 36%, indeed what Callaghan got in 1979 and Blair in 2005, but 10% of 2010 LDs will not go to Labour, especially with a more left-wing LD leader, indeed a few will go to the Tories, and have done if you read the polls smallprint. The key is the lost UKIP vote, as much as 8% in some polls, if Dave can win that back and add some 2010 Clegg voters he can come close to Major's 41% in 1992 and eke out a majority if Labour does not get much beyond its floor!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,189

    It's here! Better late than never!

    Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday:

    Op Ed: Maggie - The Sunil on Sunday marks the death of our greatest PM since Churchill
    Mike Smithson refuses to confirm if he's still a member of the LiBDem-ocracy!
    PB's tim denies he's really anti-Thatcherite Derek Hatton in disguise!
    Jack W laughs off claims he received Baronetcy when Maggie resigned!
    North Korea: Is Kim Jong-Un a bad advert for the hereditary principle?
    All the latest film reviews with our very own Mark Commode!
    Sean T's latest travel rantings writings also reviewed!
    And don't forget our steamy Page 3 model... train - full page spread!

    I think I may have found the perfect woman for you. Former Labour MP Jane Griffiths, her twitter feed is full of railway stations. :-)

    https://twitter.com/janestheone
    What are you doing following a former Labour MP??? Is there something you're not telling us??

    :)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I'm waiting for the Rallings & Thrasher projection which was due to come out at a special session on Wednsday which has had to be postponed because of Maggie's funeral.

    My guess is there will be a decline in seats for both coalition partners with Ukip and LAB picking up a fair number.

    What is difficult is factoring in the impact of Ukip syphoning off part of the CON vote in seats where the bues are under pressure from both Labour and the LDs.

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

    The libDems currently have 484 seats, are you forecasting that up or down?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    What I'm saying is not spin but serious electoral analysis of not just me.

    All parties will be judged on seats won/lost and council won/lost. The national vote share will hardly figure

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

  • I'm waiting for the Rallings & Thrasher projection which was due to come out at a special session on Wednsday which has had to be postponed because of Maggie's funeral.

    My guess is there will be a decline in seats for both coalition partners with Ukip and LAB picking up a fair number.

    What is difficult is factoring in the impact of Ukip syphoning off part of the CON vote in seats where the bues are under pressure from both Labour and the LDs.

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

    The libDems currently have 484 seats, are you forecasting that up or down?
    They've done a piece in the Local Government chronicle, I've emailed you the piece.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    In Leics, looking at the constituencies we have a UKIP candidate in most seats, and there are very few BNP candidates, (you may recall that they took Coalville in 2009). In a fair number of the seats they had around 10% of the vote, so it will be interesting to see where their votes go. Most seats are either Con/LD contests or Con/Lab.

    I forecast a few Labour gains here, but for there to be little change in the LD/Con seats, and Con to retain control. What will be interesting will be whether the UKIP defectors hold their seats. As always local issues and loyalties may mean that local trends do not correspond to national ones.

    I'm waiting for the Rallings & Thrasher projection which was due to come out at a special session on Wednsday which has had to be postponed because of Maggie's funeral.

    My guess is there will be a decline in seats for both coalition partners with Ukip and LAB picking up a fair number.

    What is difficult is factoring in the impact of Ukip syphoning off part of the CON vote in seats where the bues are under pressure from both Labour and the LDs.

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

    The libDems currently have 484 seats, are you forecasting that up or down?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    What I'm saying is not spin but serious electoral analysis of not just me.

    All parties will be judged on seats won/lost and council won/lost. The national vote share will hardly figure

    "The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not. "

    That is of course just a Lib Dem spin way of saying their party are going to do badly (i.e. lose) in more than 90% of the country.

    UKIP and the LDs are contesting a similar number of seats, and competing for third party status, which of them wins the popular vote will be a story.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    David L - In my view Labour will have a floor of 36%, indeed what Callaghan got in 1979 and Blair in 2005, but 10% of 2010 LDs will not go to Labour, especially with a more left-wing LD leader, indeed a few will go to the Tories, and have done if you read the polls smallprint. The key is the lost UKIP vote, as much as 8% in some polls, if Dave can win that back and add some 2010 Clegg voters he can come close to Major's 41% in 1992 and eke out a majority if Labour does not get much beyond its floor!

    May I ask what exactly are you smoking now ?
  • I've always said Ed Miliband is limp wristed, and here's proof.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/14/ed-miliband-surgery-broken-wrist
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ding Dong 52,605 copies
    I'm in Love 8,768

    #1 was at 58,321

    An anti-Thatcher landslide !

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Surbiton - Just setting out how Dave can win, he needs to get to about 41% with Labour on 36%, ie through slashing the UKIP vote and winning over some Clegg voters, he got beyond that level before pre-the first debate in 2010 so we know he is capable of it! A slow move upwards in economic news will of course also help
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Even though the county elections are a CON-LD spat with UKIP taking votes off the Tories, Labour will gain about 250 seats !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,699
    HYUFD said:

    MikeS - Maggie, when told by Connor Burns of the latest poll data, replied 'that is not far enough behind at this stage'. She too lost mid-term polls, indeed by more than Cameron is doing, and local election polls, but come general election day she came out on top.

    The difference is that she was unpopular because she was taking painful decisions with a medium to long term pay-off.

    Cameron is unpopular on the whole because he is dodging the painful decisions while offending his core vote. There's no bounce back from such a position.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    AveryLP said:

    surbiton said:

    Who cares? Vote share doesn't matter. It's how many seats you win/lose

    The LDs will do well in seats where they are in contention. They'll do appallingly where they are not.

    Getting good third places is a waste of effort.

    It's called first pas the post.


    Meanwhile LAB is still in the 40s and the blue team are headng for a routing in the May 2nd elections.

    HYUFD said:

    Ding Dong in at No2 with Newsbeat explanation, so failed to get to no1

    Do you think the LDs will manage to get a higher share of the vote than UKIP?
    The LD's will win a lot of seats thanks to the conjunction of UKIP and FPTP.

    Remember, it is the Tories who financed the FPTP campaign.

    Shades of Lenin's saying, "The Capitalist will sell the rope with which he will be hung"
    Lenin said rather a lot, Surbiton.

    This is my favourite piece of his wisdom:

    Behind the epistemological scholasticism of empirio-criticism one must not fail to see the struggle of parties in philosophy, a struggle which in the last analysis reflects the tendencies and ideology of the antagonistic classes in modern society.

    Right on the marx as always.
    How on earth did he manage to get any following with that sort of lingo? How is is his polling with women?

    What he needs is a Moscow Mockney Makeover and to listen to a few focus groups. Perhaps even to appear on Mumsnet to discuss his favourite biscuit.
    I am not sure Lenin believed in the power of verbal persuasion and opinion polling, Dr. Sox. It would also have been difficult to pass off a Mockney accent when driving around Moscow in a Rolls-Royce.

    But there were revolutionaries committed to popular interaction.

    Alexandra Kollontai, Lenin's Commissar for Social Welfare is my favourite. A leading light in the feminist movement she was a famous believer in "free love" and is accredited with stating that "sexual satisfaction should be as easy to get as a glass of water" .

    She inspired both Greta Garbo and Glenda Jackson to play her in movies, the former famously in the 1939 film "Ninotchka". One of my all time favourites, it features a famous Parisian hat which I imagine Roger wearing when breakfasting at the Café Valerie in Soho.

    Here is the original:

    image
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,242
    FPT Southam:

    " What those making this "killer" point seem to forget is that when the mines closed in the 50s and 60s, and even in the 70s, there were other jobs to go to. The difference in the 80s was that there were no jobs to go to when heavy industry closed down. It's not the closing of the pits - or, more accurately, the withdrawal of their subsidies - that was the huge problem, so much as the complete indifference to the fate of those thrown on the dole. "

    My grandad could have told you about the opportunities available to redundant miners in the 1960s. In his case the opportunity to get on his bike and cycle ten miles to the next pit, spend eight hours underground digging coal and then cycle ten miles back home. A couple of years later he died. Perhaps he would have prefered the 1980s alternatives of a £50,000 redundancy package and an opportunity to have a happy retirement.

    As to the 'complete indifference' to those on the dole I'd take a look at the outside investment brought in during the 1980s. It could be argued that more could have been done or some things differently but to claim 'complete indifference' is pavlovian hostility.

    Rather amusingly in today's Sunday Times there's a mention of a 33 year old in Sunderland, described as being 'on the sick', blaming Thatcher for everything. I wonder if that individual ever thought who was responsible for the Nissan car plant down the road?

    The concept of 'Thatcher' really has been a boon to many people - something to blame for anything and everything.

    And while we all know that Blair and Brown didn't attract any Japanese car factories did they manage to attract any new inward industrial investment at all?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Surbiton - Hardly, they still failed to win which was their main aim, and the Thatcherites only launched their song on Friday so did well to get it in the charts!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    Williamglenn - Perhaps, but his spending cuts are actually bigger than Maggie's so hardly dodging painful decisions, and his promise of an EU referendum still offers a bone to the core vote!
  • Does anyone know what time the Thatcher funeral begins and ends on Wednesday?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    HYUFD said:

    MikeS - Maggie, when told by Connor Burns of the latest poll data, replied 'that is not far enough behind at this stage'. She too lost mid-term polls, indeed by more than Cameron is doing, and local election polls, but come general election day she came out on top.

    The difference is that she was unpopular because she was taking painful decisions with a medium to long term pay-off.

    Cameron is unpopular on the whole because he is dodging the painful decisions while offending his core vote. There's no bounce back from such a position.
    The difference is also the polling methodology has changed and the results tend to be more middle of the road.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I am sure that someone does.

    Does anyone know what time the Thatcher funeral begins and ends on Wednesday?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,208
    It starts at 11am and finishes about 12.30pm I think
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I'm expecting more LAB gains than that.
    surbiton said:

    Even though the county elections are a CON-LD spat with UKIP taking votes off the Tories, Labour will gain about 250 seats !

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Does anyone know what time the Thatcher funeral begins and ends on Wednesday?

    Quote from a Freedom Association email: "The procession starts at the Palace of Westminster at 10.00 am and the Funeral Service
    at St. Paul's Cathedral starts at 11.00 am. "
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,635
    edited April 2013
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    Does anyone know what time the Thatcher funeral begins and ends on Wednesday?

    The funeral starts at 11:00 am. It will last just under an hour.

    Procession, arrival of dignitaries etc will start from 10:00 am.

    News Stations will start broadcasting from 9:00 am.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I'm expecting more LAB gains than that.

    surbiton said:

    Even though the county elections are a CON-LD spat with UKIP taking votes off the Tories, Labour will gain about 250 seats !

    Labour lost 284 in 2009, mostly to the Tories. The LibDems were almost unchanged. 250 or so gains sounds about right to me for Labour.
  • Senior advisers to Chancellor Angela Merkel are pushing for better-off households to pay towards the cost of any future bail-outs for the weaker members of the single currency.

    The proposals, from members of Germany’s council of economic experts, raise the prospect of taxes being imposed on property in a country like Spain if its government was forced to seek a bail-out.

    The council, known as the “Five Wise Men”, is often used to test new policies that are later adopted officially.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9993790/Wealth-tax-to-pay-for-EU-bail-outs.html
  • After praising Dan Hodges the other evening, he's reverted to type, and started talking rubbish again.

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges

    I think the Shawshank Redemption is actually overrated. There. I said it. Do your worst...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    I'm expecting more LAB gains than that.

    surbiton said:

    Even though the county elections are a CON-LD spat with UKIP taking votes off the Tories, Labour will gain about 250 seats !

    Labour lost 284 in 2009, mostly to the Tories. The LibDems were almost unchanged. 250 or so gains sounds about right to me for Labour.
    But you cannot take the Labour losses figure from 2009 because this year's elections are not directly comparable . You have to subtract the Labour losses in Beds in 2009 which are not being fought this year and add the Labour losses in 2008 in Durham and Northumberland .
    There are also around 50 seats fewer being fought because of boundary changes in a number of councils

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    @williamglen - please explain what "painful" decisions Cameron is avoiding.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The Bishop of Grantham just complained about the cost of Mrs Thatcher's funeral on the news. A bishop!

  • The Bishop of Grantham just complained about the cost of Mrs Thatcher's funeral on the news. A bishop!

    Time for some Bishop bashing.
This discussion has been closed.