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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1  Europe has changed – We can’t put

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  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    Floater said:

    Just bear in mind that if the tories renege on Brexit they will be monstered at the next Election

    It really is as simple as that.

    If leaving was going to be such a disaster it should never have been offered. It was

    Cameron should not have told us leaving would have an affect, but wouldn't be a disaster - he did.

    May should never have stood there time after time and said Brexit means brexit and offer her red lines (which she promptly ignored) - but she did.

    The Government should have planned for other eventualities than frictionless trade - but they didn't

    Remind me (other than to stop Corbyn) why anyone should vote for that deceitful shambles?

    Apparently the Torie's only recipe for electoral success is to drape themselves in a white sheet and leap out on an unsuspecting electorate and yell 'BOOOO JEREMY CORBYN COMETH'.

    I don't think it's going to work.
    It may limit the scale of defeat, but it won't be enough and they won't have anything else to fall back on.
    I'm not taking to the streets with me AK-47, but if the Conservatives don't deliver some form of Brexit, I will never vote for 'em again, cub's honour.
    It's greater than that. Parliament has lots its legitimacy.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
  • Mrs. C, very unfair to donkeys.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,458
    edited December 2018
    London's new 'ultra-low emission zone' that will force a million motorists to pay £12.50 a day or get off the road 'is expected to raise up to SIX times as much as the congestion charge'

    These ULEZ non-compliant vehicles will also be impacted:

    - Motorcycles, mopeds, motorised tricycles, quadricycles

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6476639/Londons-new-ultra-low-emission-zone-force-million-motorists-pay-12-50-day.html

    I presume the hordes of Moped thieves won't be paying any attention to this.
  • I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    You can’t get a softer form of Brexit than May’s deal. The only choice is no deal or no Brexit.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234



    Corbyn is an unmitigated ass.

    How, precisely, does one mitigate an ass?
  • timmo said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So as they would say in the X factor its deadlock and they will go to the Public Vote
    And that may not work out as remainers wish
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    London's new 'ultra-low emission zone' that will force a million motorists to pay £12.50 a day or get off the road 'is expected to raise up to SIX times as much as the congestion charge'

    These ULEZ non-compliant vehicles will also be impacted:

    - Motorcycles, mopeds, motorised tricycles, quadricycles

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6476639/Londons-new-ultra-low-emission-zone-force-million-motorists-pay-12-50-day.html

    I presume the hordes of Moped thieves won't be paying any attention to this.

    Time to get the yellow jackets out?
  • I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    You can’t get a softer form of Brexit than May’s deal. The only choice is no deal or no Brexit.
    Just listening to debate on BBC and it is very complex and deal will be part of a referendum
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Is there a way the Tories can pass responsibility for brexit to a minority labour government without them having enough power to enact anything much else at all?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513



    Corbyn is an unmitigated ass.

    How, precisely, does one mitigate an ass?
    Ving Rhames had a suggestion:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A6zqu_9Sb7w
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    DavidL said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    I don’t think the government can pull the vote.
    They shouldn’t. We need a list of those not fit to be PM. It looks like a long one but those who vote against May’s deal are people who think their own self image and self importance comes ahead of the national interest. That is useful information.
    Brexit is evidently not in the national interest. By that measure, any MPs who campaigned for it are not fit to be PM... ;)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    You can’t get a softer form of Brexit than May’s deal. The only choice is no deal or no Brexit.
    So why is Rudd wibbling about Norway+?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.


    "Let Labour" - let's not.





  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited December 2018

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    You can’t get a softer form of Brexit than May’s deal. The only choice is no deal or no Brexit.
    So why is Rudd wibbling about Norway+?
    Why does any politician wibble about anything ?

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs. C, very unfair to donkeys.

    It is, isn't it. Life is hard ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited December 2018
    ‘The Little Schitt’ has another go at tweaking Trump’s tail:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/09/trump-jail-time-schiff-warns-1054014
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




  • geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    DavidL said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    I don’t think the government can pull the vote.
    They shouldn’t. We need a list of those not fit to be PM. It looks like a long one but those who vote against May’s deal are people who think their own self image and self importance comes ahead of the national interest. That is useful information.
    Brexit is evidently not in the national interest. By that measure, any MPs who campaigned for it are not fit to be PM... ;)
    Nonsense.

    It's entirely sensible to have a Brexit view that such a thing IS in the national interest. I don't know what comics you've been reading, but if you look at the EU finances then you'd clearly conclude you wanted out.

    Ok, so sorry for the 'Nonsense', and sorry for the 'Comics' - but there really is a very strong argument that Brexit is completely in the National interest.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
  • geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
  • geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot,
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    What has Prodi said and how has he any influence in Brussels
  • HYUFD said:



    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change.

    Neither you nor I know whether the EU might be prepared to give further ground, and if so how much. What we do know is that, like any good negotiator, if Barnier were prepared to go beyond what he claims is his final offer, he would not broadcast the fact.

    I think we must also conclude that, given that May has clearly been taken aback by the strength of opposition to her deal, then the EU may also have thought it would get the parliamentary nod. So the scenario playing out now may also be one that they would have wished to avoid, unless their strategy all along has been to offer terms so humiliatingly bad to the UK that we would eventually come around trying to stay in the EU after all. The latter is, I accept, a possibility, but if so then the last thing we should do is to sign those humiliating terms. If the former is true, then I would expect the EU to be willing to offer more.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:


    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    Rudd wants Brexit in Name Only (aka "Norway"). Hunt is another May. Raab is possible but doesn't have the stature.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited December 2018
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:


    Are you quite sure of that?

    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    The person to take over from Theresa May has to command the confidence of the House of Commons, not just past some baroque purity test for Leavers. Since Parliament is strongly against no deal Brexit, hardline Leavers need to do some urgent thinking about who they could live with who could command that confidence.
  • Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    How is an arch-Remainer like Rudd a unity candidate by any stretch of the imagination? You might as well propose Nicky Morgan.
  • geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:


    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    Rudd wants Brexit in Name Only (aka "Norway"). Hunt is another May. Raab is possible but doesn't have the stature.
    The problem for ERG is they have lost so much support they are unlikely to see anyone from their group succeed with the possible exception of Gove
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    It is not often I say this - but HYUFD is right.

    As for Prodi, he has not been in power for a long time, so his opinion is merely that - an opinion. If Juncker, Barnier or Tusk had made Prodi's comments then I would say that you have a point, but they did not.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:


    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    Rudd wants Brexit in Name Only (aka "Norway"). Hunt is another May. Raab is possible but doesn't have the stature.
    Norway option is not Brexit in name only.
  • Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
    On the day after Theresa May secured the deal, I broke the news of Dominic Raab’s departure to someone who I would not have put down as a Mayite. He gave a sincerely emotional groan of sadness and said how sorry he was for her.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Panelbase
    Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

    SNP: 37% (=)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    CON: 26% (-2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)
    UKIP: 2% (=)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    edited December 2018

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:



    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50

    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    The person to take over from Theresa May has to command the confidence of the House of Commons, not just past some baroque purity test for Leavers. Since Parliament is strongly against no deal Brexit, hardline Leavers need to do some urgent thinking about who they could live with who could command that confidence.
    Fair point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    What has Prodi said and how has he any influence in Brussels
    He predicts the EU will negotiate anew. Hopefully he is right, but just because he says they will doesn't mean they will, or we will successfully.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    notme said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:


    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    Rudd wants Brexit in Name Only (aka "Norway"). Hunt is another May. Raab is possible but doesn't have the stature.
    Norway option is not Brexit in name only.
    Norway isn't, but "Norway Plus" is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    As Beverly C points out correctly Prodi is not in any position of power within the EU, Juncker, Barnier and Tusk have made absolutely clear - no backstop, no Deal
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    It has to be someone who confidently propose a course of action that will get the necessary support in parliament and agreement from the EU, while satisfying the absolute requirement of leaving the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She

    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Believing in Brexit is irrelevant, what is needed is getting a deal through the Commons. Being the most leavery leaver who ever left is not, in itself going to achieve anything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:



    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change.

    Neither you nor I know whether the EU might be prepared to give further ground, and if so how much. What we do know is that, like any good negotiator, if Barnier were prepared to go beyond what he claims is his final offer, he would not broadcast the fact.

    I think we must also conclude that, given that May has clearly been taken aback by the strength of opposition to her deal, then the EU may also have thought it would get the parliamentary nod. So the scenario playing out now may also be one that they would have wished to avoid, unless their strategy all along has been to offer terms so humiliatingly bad to the UK that we would eventually come around trying to stay in the EU after all. The latter is, I accept, a possibility, but if so then the last thing we should do is to sign those humiliating terms. If the former is true, then I would expect the EU to be willing to offer more.
    The EU will not offer any more without the backstop, even if May went back that would be made abundantly clear. As there is no majority in Parliament for No Deal hence the Deputy PM and civil service are beginning preparations for EUref2
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    As Beverly C points out correctly Prodi is not in any position of power within the EU, Juncker, Barnier and Tusk have made absolutely clear - no backstop, no Deal
    It is fair to suggest at least that given their positions they cannot admit they will renegotiate, as it would undermine their current stance. Someone now on the outside could call it right. However, it cannot be assured.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited December 2018

    Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
    There are quite a few PBers who admire her dedication, sense of duty, resilience, general decency etc. I am one.

    However, sadly she seems to have very little charisma, political nous or emotional intelligence, and her judgement is often bizarrely off-kilter.

    It's remarkable she has made it to PM and survived so long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot,
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backsto



    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    They could still get a No Deal candidate in the final two if May goes
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    As Beverly C points out correctly Prodi is not in any position of power within the EU, Juncker, Barnier and Tusk have made absolutely clear - no backstop, no Deal
    You don't think that Prodi is channeling the view of Brussels?
  • I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    I believe that there is a majority in Parliament for some form of deal - softer Brexit than currently being proposed. However, a majority of Tory MPs would be against this, and would be quick to get rid of May if she proposed it. Hence the parliamentary deadlock.

    My solution: let Labour put forward a basis for renegotiation and all parties have a free vote on it. If the motion passes, Starmer catches the next Eurostar to Brussels.

    You can’t get a softer form of Brexit than May’s deal. The only choice is no deal or no Brexit.
    So why is Rudd wibbling about Norway+?
    Who knows why Rudd does what she does or says what she says. She has no obvious talent or intellect. There is virtually no difference between Norway’s deal and May’s now. There’ll be even less if the negotiations about the political declaration ever take place.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot,
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backsto



    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    They could still get a No Deal candidate in the final two if May goes
    But even if a No Deal candidate wins and becomes PM he/she will not get No Deal through the HoC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there istive before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    As Beverly C points out correctly Prody clear - no backstop, no Deal
    It is fair to suggest at least that given their positions they cannot admit they will renegotiate, as it would undermine their current stance. Someone now on the outside could call it right. However, it cannot be assured.
    At most May would have a fortnight to go back and get something from Brussels, if as is almost certain they do not budge we start to move towards EUref2 and no Brexit at all becomes a real possibility, with a Deal v Remain or Remain v Leave (Leave options to be decided if Leave wins) referendum
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    London's new 'ultra-low emission zone' that will force a million motorists to pay £12.50 a day or get off the road 'is expected to raise up to SIX times as much as the congestion charge'

    These ULEZ non-compliant vehicles will also be impacted:

    - Motorcycles, mopeds, motorised tricycles, quadricycles

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6476639/Londons-new-ultra-low-emission-zone-force-million-motorists-pay-12-50-day.html

    I presume the hordes of Moped thieves won't be paying any attention to this.

    They’ve gone further then the congestion charge would have let them, that the thing about greenism. It gives you the cover to do the things you’ve always wanted to do, but the voters are less keen on. We need some high viz jackets..
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    I'm enjoying this debate. Reasonable discourse so far.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    notme said:

    London's new 'ultra-low emission zone' that will force a million motorists to pay £12.50 a day or get off the road 'is expected to raise up to SIX times as much as the congestion charge'

    These ULEZ non-compliant vehicles will also be impacted:

    - Motorcycles, mopeds, motorised tricycles, quadricycles

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6476639/Londons-new-ultra-low-emission-zone-force-million-motorists-pay-12-50-day.html

    I presume the hordes of Moped thieves won't be paying any attention to this.

    They’ve gone further then the congestion charge would have let them, that the thing about greenism. It gives you the cover to do the things you’ve always wanted to do, but the voters are less keen on. We need some high viz jackets..
    Closet anarchist @notme?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot,
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backsto



    Johnson is o 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    They could still get a No Deal candidate in the final two if May goes
    But even if a No Deal candidate wins and becomes PM he/she will not get No Deal through the HoC.
    They do not need to, it is the default as it needs Government tabled legislation to reverse article 50, hence May likely stays on a 'keep hold of nurse for fear of something worse' basis from Tory anti No Dealers
  • The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    As Beverly C points out correctly Prodi is not in any position of power within the EU, Juncker, Barnier and Tusk have made absolutely clear - no backstop, no Deal
    You don't think that Prodi is channeling the view of Brussels?
    No more than Blair is channelling the view of Westminster.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Donny43 said:

    notme said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:


    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    Rudd wants Brexit in Name Only (aka "Norway"). Hunt is another May. Raab is possible but doesn't have the stature.
    Norway option is not Brexit in name only.
    Norway isn't, but "Norway Plus" is.
    Norway plus isn’t Norway though. If you are in the single market and the customs union, it does seem like very little point in leaving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    As Beverly C points out correctly Prodi is not in any position of power within the EU, Juncker, Barnier and Tusk have made absolutely clear - no backstop, no Deal
    You don't think that Prodi is channeling the view of Brussels?
    Prodi has been out of the loop for over a decade and really what he was talking about was trying to manage No Deal rather than offering London what it wants on a plate
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    What has Prodi said and how has he any influence in Brussels
    He predicts the EU will negotiate anew. Hopefully he is right, but just because he says they will doesn't mean they will, or we will successfully.
    Prodi is the grown up in the room, reminding everybody that No Deal Brexit is a disaster for the EU as much as the UK.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    If it slips through their hands, you are right, they’ve no one else to blame...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    However. All Brexiters could vote for this deal on Tuesday. There still aren't enough of them to get it through.
  • I'm enjoying this debate. Reasonable discourse so far.

    It is at its best when strong arguments are made and the tone between posters is good
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    Indeed - I do so hope they end up regretting their stupidity.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    I believe that David Herdson has suggested that the 1922 Committee could change the 12 month rule pretty quickly should the need arise.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Krishnan Guru-Murthy doing a good job of controlling the conversation and making sure people answer questions.
  • dixiedean said:

    The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    However. All Brexiters could vote for this deal on Tuesday. There still aren't enough of them to get it through.
    It would close the gap by 100 or so
  • justin124 said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    I believe that David Herdson has suggested that the 1922 Committee could change the 12 month rule pretty quickly should the need arise.
    Not in these circumstances
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Can't believe Labour sent Barry Gardiner. Even my girlfriend, who is a staunch Labour supporter, said that he is the most smug looking person she's ever seen.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Time to think beyond Tuesday. If the EU is willing to re-negotiate (not a given of course), what is acceptable to lose from the Deal in return for a backstop solution?
    Owt or nowt?
    Some countries were reportedly less than gruntled about fish as it stood. Re-negotiation is not one way. Fish, Gibraltar, FOM and payments loom large.
  • Krishnan Guru-Murthy doing a good job of controlling the conversation and making sure people answer questions.

    Not a patch on Scott Hanson.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:


    She has to tell Brussels to take the backstop out of the WA and deal with the Irish border issue in a different way, else it is no deal. If they decline, then it is managed no-deal, and the £39b is contingent on a satisfactory agreement on that.
    If she does that her premiership is secure. If she can't do that then she has to be replaced by somebody who can. Johnson would give it a good go, and mean it.




    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    Rudd wants Brexit in Name Only (aka "Norway"). Hunt is another May. Raab is possible but doesn't have the stature.
    The problem for ERG is they have lost so much support they are unlikely to see anyone from their group succeed with the possible exception of Gove
    Gove isn't an ERGonaut though. I think he walked to the precipice with the ERG and panicked, now he's looking for a way to row back.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited December 2018

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchillwins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    What has Prodi said and how has he any influence in Brussels
    He predicts the EU will negotiate anew. Hopefully he is right, but just because he says they will doesn't mean they will, or we will successfully.
    Prodi is the grown up in the room, reminding everybody that No Deal Brexit is a disaster for the EU as much as the UK.
    It’s clear that ‘no deal’ was a bluff, and no one either on the uk or Eu side had any realistic expectation it would happen. I had the luxury of doing a sky news interview six months ago, I had a narrow insight into an aspect of the preparedness for Brexit. I made the point that no one is really going to be moving towards ‘no deal’ it was madness to suggest it would happen...

    There is a strong appetite for it now. Conservative members and activists have lapped up the Jacob Rees Mogg position that we are giving the EU 39 billion pounds and getting nothing in return for it. Would be better just leaving.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot,
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Even TM cannot insist on nothing has changed.

    It was significant today that most conservative mps want her to use the vote to extract concessions from the EU and I believe she is risking a heavy defeat to demonstrate to the EU they have a problem. Remember this is a big failure for Barnier, Juncker and Tusk
    She has to tell Brussels to take the backsto



    Johnson is over.

    Already 20 conservative mps have said they will resign the whip if he took over and some say it could rise to 50
    Who would you suggest for that task?
    Has to be a unity candidate. Javid or Hunt or Rudd
    It has to be someone who believes in Brexit. Neither Hunt nor Rudd would do. I don't know about Javid.
    Trouble is ERG have blown it
    They could still get a No Deal candidate in the final two if May goes
    But even if a No Deal candidate wins and becomes PM he/she will not get No Deal through the HoC.
    Parliament doesn't have to vote for no deal again.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Prodi may be expressing his views, but he may be trying to undermine the UK Parliamentary vote.

    I think you'd have to guess it was the latter if pressed. Still, work for MI6, and I hope the inadvertently stubbed toe heals in time.

  • At the risk of invoking Godwin, Jacob Rees Mogg has a bit of a Hitler look about him tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the vote and says 'Nothing has Changed', and the next day well over 48 letters arrive calling for the VONC in her leadership.

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat in the House on the govts only policy, that, in a secret ballot, she wins enough support. In that scenario will enough Tory MPs really think, what we desperately need, right now, is 12 more months of this?
    Am prepared to be proved wrong, and am genuinely interested.
    People say now what they need to say. Reality hits on Tuesday.

    If this deal goes down to a record defeat then a new deal will be needed. If May acknowledges that then she can be given one last chance. If she insists nothing has changed she will need to go.
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchill was Tory leader that would not change. The only alternatives are No Deal or Remain hence Lidington is now preparing for and the civil service openly wargaming a Deal v Remain referendum or Remain v Leave (Deal or No Deal second question if Leave wins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    What has Prodi said and how has he any influence in Brussels
    He predicts the EU will negotiate anew. Hopefully he is right, but just because he says they will doesn't mean they will, or we will successfully.
    Prodi is the grown up in the room, reminding everybody that No Deal Brexit is a disaster for the EU as much as the UK.
    More so for the UK though as 44% of UK exports go to the EU but only 16% of EU exports to the UK
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
    There are quite a few PBers who admire her dedication, sense of duty, resilience, general decency etc. I am one.

    However, sadly she seems to have very little charisma, political nous or emotional intelligence, and her judgement is often bizarrely off-kilter.

    It's remarkable she has made it to PM and survived so long.
    I'm normally very down on May but there are things I admire about her too. I still can't bring myself to admire her tenacity because I think it's been so harmful and just don't buy that the motivations behind it are good. But her resiliency in an almost unimaginably high pressure role, day in, day out, really is amazing.
  • NHS told to ditch 'absurd' fax machines

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46497526

    Do they even still manufacture them? I presumed they had gone the way VCR / DVD combo machines.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
    There are quite a few PBers who admire her dedication, sense of duty, resilience, general decency etc. I am one.

    However, sadly she seems to have very little charisma, political nous or emotional intelligence, and her judgement is often bizarrely off-kilter.

    It's remarkable she has made it to PM and survived so long.
    I'm normally very down on May but there are things I admire about her too. I still can't bring myself to admire her tenacity because I think it's been so harmful and just don't buy that the motivations behind it are good. But her resiliency in an almost unimaginably high pressure role, day in, day out, really is amazing.
    Another word for it is stubbornness.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    notme said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    So May stands up after the

    Let the Tories clear up their own mess.
    And she will win that vote in her party and have 12 more months
    Are you quite sure of that?
    Yes
    Fair enough. That makes you and @HYUFD. What do other Conservatives think? I cannot see how, after leading a record defeat genuinely interested.
    If this
    Except there is no alternative Deal without a backstop as the EU have made abundantly clear umpteen times and even if the reincarnation of Churchillwins)
    You are a broken record and there is an alternative deal as Prodi made clear. Everyone involved needs to say there is no alternative before the vote but there is always an alternative.
    What has Prodi said and how has he any influence in Brussels
    He predicts the EU will negotiate anew. Hopefully he is right, but just because he says they will doesn't mean they will, or we will successfully.
    Prodi is the grown up in the room, reminding everybody that No Deal Brexit is a disaster for the EU as much as the UK.
    It’s clear that ‘no deal’ was a bluff, and no one either on the uk or Eu side had any realistic expectation it would happen. I had the luxury of doing a sky news interview six months ago, I had a narrow insight into an aspect of the preparedness for Brexit. I made the point that no one is really going to be moving towards ‘no deal’ it was madness to suggest it would happen...

    There is a strong appetite for it now. Conservative members and activists have lapped up the Jacob Rees Mogg position that we are giving the EU 39 billion pounds and getting nothing in return for it. Would be better just leaving.
    No deal on this timescale isn’t an option. There’s no way it is manageable, and even with two years of intensive preparation it wouldn’t have been. Any Brexit supporters who had wanted no deal as a credible negotiating position, let alone a desirable end state, should have been lobbying *not* to invite A50 until preparations were sufficiently advanced.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
    There are quite a few PBers who admire her dedication, sense of duty, resilience, general decency etc. I am one.

    However, sadly she seems to have very little charisma, political nous or emotional intelligence, and her judgement is often bizarrely off-kilter.

    It's remarkable she has made it to PM and survived so long.
    I'm normally very down on May but there are things I admire about her too. I still can't bring myself to admire her tenacity because I think it's been so harmful and just don't buy that the motivations behind it are good. But her resiliency in an almost unimaginably high pressure role, day in, day out, really is amazing.
    Stubbornness for its own sake isn't an admirable trait. And the only thing, the ONLY thing, that May's stubbornness has achieved is delay the moment of reckoning by six futile months.

    We should have been having this constitutional crisis after Chequers. But May has always prioritised clinging on by her fingernails over the wellbeing of the country, and here we are.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    I know the point has been made, but simply “Remaining” is not good enough. Remainer High Command (whoever that is) hasn’t given enough (any?) thought into considering why people voted Brexit in the first place.

    If Remain wants to win any referendum, it will need to concede that Brexit involves painful truths that must be aknowledged and listened to.
  • Barry Gardiner seeking unicorns and is frankly embarrassing. Caroline Lucas is all over him
  • NEW THREAD

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    dixiedean said:

    Time to think beyond Tuesday. If the EU is willing to re-negotiate (not a given of course), what is acceptable to lose from the Deal in return for a backstop solution?
    Owt or nowt?
    Some countries were reportedly less than gruntled about fish as it stood. Re-negotiation is not one way. Fish, Gibraltar, FOM and payments loom large.

    As mentioned earlier, give them £20 billion now, the remaining £19 billion when we sign the Trade Agreement - rather than paid over decades. It would be a material gain for the EU - and an incentive not to dick around (or let other countries). Everyone happy.

    Well, except Remainers.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    NHS told to ditch 'absurd' fax machines

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46497526

    Do they even still manufacture them? I presumed they had gone the way VCR / DVD combo machines.

    By law, prescriptions can only be sent to pharmacies by fax. No other electronic form of prescription is legally permissible.

    It's estimate that fax machines account for 75% of all medical communication, which is pretty staggering. But it really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that NHS IT is stuck somewhere in the mid eighties.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kle4 said:


    It is fair to suggest at least that given their positions they cannot admit they will renegotiate, as it would undermine their current stance. Someone now on the outside could call it right. However, it cannot be assured.

    Prodi is correct to the extent that it isn't a binary choice between Deal and absolutely no deal. By No Deal we're talking about the UK not accepting the current proposal of money, citizens rights, level playing field and commitment to soft Irish border against a two year transition and talks towards a permanent arrangement.

    So what happens if the UK rejects the WA? There won't be a transition period, nor will there be any discussion of a permanent arrangement. The EU will put a lot of pressure on the UK to agree the stuff in the WA because that's what it wants. There will almost certainly be a very volatile situation in the UK until it does. In the meantime, the EU will look to contain the damage on a unilateral basis and may agree some limited deals, possibly on a temporary basis.

    Ultimately, any deal with the EU is necessarily better than nothing and worse than what we have. It's a big space. How much better than nothing and how much worse than what we have?
  • The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    No deal is better than a bad deal
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    dixiedean said:

    Time to think beyond Tuesday. If the EU is willing to re-negotiate (not a given of course), what is acceptable to lose from the Deal in return for a backstop solution?
    Owt or nowt?
    Some countries were reportedly less than gruntled about fish as it stood. Re-negotiation is not one way. Fish, Gibraltar, FOM and payments loom large.

    There is no available deal that parliament will acccept. Renegotiation would be pointless. It's either May's deal, no deal,or remain.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I know the point has been made, but simply “Remaining” is not good enough. Remainer High Command (whoever that is) hasn’t given enough (any?) thought into considering why people voted Brexit in the first place.

    If Remain wants to win any referendum, it will need to concede that Brexit involves painful truths that must be aknowledged and listened to.

    And if they had understood why then they would know that remaining can not answer that question.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    NHS told to ditch 'absurd' fax machines

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46497526

    Do they even still manufacture them? I presumed they had gone the way VCR / DVD combo machines.

    By law, prescriptions can only be sent to pharmacies by fax. No other electronic form of prescription is legally permissible.

    It's estimate that fax machines account for 75% of all medical communication, which is pretty staggering. But it really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that NHS IT is stuck somewhere in the mid eighties.
    Er... not sure you can blame the NHS if the law forces them to use faxes. Maybe this apology for a government should spend some time updating such out-of-date laws instead of trashing the country to resolve their internal differences.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I know the point has been made, but simply “Remaining” is not good enough. Remainer High Command (whoever that is) hasn’t given enough (any?) thought into considering why people voted Brexit in the first place.

    If Remain wants to win any referendum, it will need to concede that Brexit involves painful truths that must be aknowledged and listened to.

    And if they had understood why then they would know that remaining can not answer that question.
    Sadly leaving doesn't answer it either.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Omnium said:

    The BBC website has a really nice photo of Mrs May in the rain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086k8db

    Wherever all this goes I do think she can be proud of her efforts.

    You would not know it on here but many do admire her dedication and knowledge and in the end she has achieved a brexit deal with the EU
    There are quite a few PBers who admire her dedication, sense of duty, resilience, general decency etc. I am one.

    However, sadly she seems to have very little charisma, political nous or emotional intelligence, and her judgement is often bizarrely off-kilter.

    It's remarkable she has made it to PM and survived so long.
    I'm normally very down on May but there are things I admire about her too. I still can't bring myself to admire her tenacity because I think it's been so harmful and just don't buy that the motivations behind it are good. But her resiliency in an almost unimaginably high pressure role, day in, day out, really is amazing.
    Stubbornness for its own sake isn't an admirable trait. And the only thing, the ONLY thing, that May's stubbornness has achieved is delay the moment of reckoning by six futile months.

    We should have been having this constitutional crisis after Chequers. But May has always prioritised clinging on by her fingernails over the wellbeing of the country, and here we are.
    My comment wasn't clear. What you're calling stubbornness is what I meant by tenacity, and I agree with you wholeheartedly about how damaging that is.

    But if I were in her position there's no way I'd be able to cope with the sheet soul-crushing day-in-day-out grind of it all without breaking down
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    NHS told to ditch 'absurd' fax machines

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46497526

    Do they even still manufacture them? I presumed they had gone the way VCR / DVD combo machines.

    By law, prescriptions can only be sent to pharmacies by fax. No other electronic form of prescription is legally permissible.

    It's estimate that fax machines account for 75% of all medical communication, which is pretty staggering. But it really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that NHS IT is stuck somewhere in the mid eighties.
    Er... not sure you can blame the NHS if the law forces them to use faxes. Maybe this apology for a government should spend some time updating such out-of-date laws instead of trashing the country to resolve their internal differences.
    An extremely large investment manager I deal with in my job will not accept email instructions, only fax or snail post. They consider email insecure, it's not only the NHS which still relies on fax.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Omnium said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC just reported that TM will not pull the vote and will not stand down. Furthermore they said that labour have decided not to vnoc the government as the DUP have told them they will support HMG

    I don’t think the government can pull the vote.
    They shouldn’t. We need a list of those not fit to be PM. It looks like a long one but those who vote against May’s deal are people who think their own self image and self importance comes ahead of the national interest. That is useful information.
    Brexit is evidently not in the national interest. By that measure, any MPs who campaigned for it are not fit to be PM... ;)
    Nonsense.

    It's entirely sensible to have a Brexit view that such a thing IS in the national interest. I don't know what comics you've been reading, but if you look at the EU finances then you'd clearly conclude you wanted out.

    Ok, so sorry for the 'Nonsense', and sorry for the 'Comics' - but there really is a very strong argument that Brexit is completely in the National interest.
    It's also possible to make a really strong argument that Brexit is not at all in the National interest, yet alone completely. And the current chaos is an indicator that, so far at least, it isn't.

    That perspective may change after the dust has settled in a decade or two, and the people who campaigned so hard for it may be proved right. I hope so, for the country's sake. However at the moment it looks like a right mess, and one whose negative effects may linger for years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    No deal is better than a bad deal
    No deal is a really bad deal.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    NHS told to ditch 'absurd' fax machines

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46497526

    Do they even still manufacture them? I presumed they had gone the way VCR / DVD combo machines.

    By law, prescriptions can only be sent to pharmacies by fax. No other electronic form of prescription is legally permissible.

    It's estimate that fax machines account for 75% of all medical communication, which is pretty staggering. But it really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that NHS IT is stuck somewhere in the mid eighties.
    Er... not sure you can blame the NHS if the law forces them to use faxes. Maybe this apology for a government should spend some time updating such out-of-date laws instead of trashing the country to resolve their internal differences.
    An extremely large investment manager I deal with in my job will not accept email instructions, only fax or snail post. They consider email insecure, it's not only the NHS which still relies on fax.
    While it’s not difficult to fake email, it’s infinitely harder to fake email than fax or snail post.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Nigelb said:

    The one point that does not seem to be picked up on is the huge push by remainers for their vote as they know if TM deal goes through their campaign is over and all they have left is to campaign to rejoin. That is why labour mps are fighting tooth and nail against the deal and being ably assisted by hard brexiteers.

    If the brexiteers had voted for TM deal the referendum is extingushed, but now they risk brexit being extinguished.

    That is so ironic

    No deal is better than a bad deal
    No deal is a really bad deal.

    NODEAL=IDEAL.
This discussion has been closed.