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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1 Europe has changed – We can’t put
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1 Europe has changed – We can’t put Humpty together again.
As the Brexit debate rolls on the recent ruling by the ECJ Advocate General that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 brings a new angle to proceedings. Suddenly it is a lot easier to stay in.
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Remember Roy Jenkins?
Sad. It'll take a while to get back to that state.
The one factor I would add is that the post-war geopolitical consensus is also breaking up. The US is pivoting East rather than to Europe; Russia is reverting to an aggressive hostile stance; the Middle East has gone backwards; and strong authoritarian but fundamentally illiberal and undemocratic countries - such as China (but see also Brazil, Turkey) - are willing to throw their weight about and are perhaps seen as more of a model to follow by other parts of the world.
Europe - neither the EU nor Britain - have really taken these developments on board. We can't go back in time to the post-war settlement either. What comes next is very unclear and could be very worrying and unstable.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1MnxnNOkNbXxO
The alternative, a Britain run by those extremists lobbing invective at the EU from outside for the foreseeable future, looks no more appetising. It’s a mess.
https://www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9781137515292
If we leave properly and are not entangled within a backstop etc then we will get over the EU. Our own issues will be in our own nation. Canadians are more likely to laugh at Trump's America than get into fights with it most of the time. So long as we cut our ties properly that will be our future.
“Forget the backstop”
Have you thought this through?
'smoothing Greece’s path to EC membership. '
Not entirely sure that worked out as well as it might have!
Even a few pro remain pro EU types aren't always perfect in their use of apostrophes!
Roll on the people's vote - its going to be such a 'coming together' experience!
This deal is only the transitional deal. Even assuming a deal is struck now, the next one looms. All the extremists will continue to bay betrayal and carry nooses for anyone prepared to engage in the slightest constructive discussion.
The people who are committed to the Euro recognise that they cannot go on like this. What is the point in having a rule that public debt is not to exceed 60% of GDP if Italy has more than 120% and is increasing it? At what point do the Target 2 balances become unsustainable? Are they already creating liquidity problems in the Mediterranean countries and an excess of liquidity in Germany and Holland? How do you fix this?
The only answer, in my view, is to address the underlying problems. That means persuading EU citizens that their money really is as safe in a Greek or Italian bank as it is in a German one. It means that the countries who are members of the Euro can no longer do their own thing, set their own budgets or disregard the rules that are supposed to control the Euro. So far this has been done behind the scenes in large part. Greece and now Italy have been brought to heel by using the ability of the ECB to limit the drawing rights of banks in the territory who are playing up forcing a government to choose between a banking crisis and backing off. This is rightly criticised as undemocratic but it is an inevitable consequence of a single currency.
To make the currency work the EU needs to change and that change will be even more radical that @Alanbrooke is pointing out in his header. National elections will mean less and less as Parliaments are no longer allowed to determine fiscal policy as well as the monetary policy they have already given up. They will become more akin to local government, with some discretion on minor matters but doing what they are told on the major issues.
The UK, as a large member of the EU outside the EZ, consistently attempted to put a break on this. Without us this process will accelerate. Even if we somehow remained we will not be permitted to get in the road. This is too important. The EU is on the path towards even more of a technocratic semi-democracy than we have seen to date. As Alanbrooke says, there is no going back.
Apologies, back now, good thread header @Alanbrooke, thought provoking for Europhiles like me. Makes me think that maybe the EU does need us more than we need them they realise at any rate... UK has been and can continue to be a good moderating influence on the EU.
Good afternoon, everyone.
It's only the AG's recommendation at the moment - ECJ ruling is published at 8:00GMT tomorrow.
Do you seriously expect those remainers to listen and engage?
LOL
Essentially all of the liquid capital in the EZ is in Germany and those wanting to invest elsewhere are dependent upon their banks recycling that surplus. Any Italian with any serious capital has already moved it out of the country and beyond the reach of the authorities there making it impossible to defy the ECB, hence the Italian government's climb down.
I'll take any Brexit over being in that, no matter how chaotic leaving proves to be.
Did this poster post-date Tezza's vacuous mantra or did she actually pinch a key message from an illiterate poster?
As for Leavers being thick and xenophobic, that may not be true of most Leavers who post here but they are not representative of Leave voters. It's true for 95% of those voters and xenophobia was why they voted how they did.
Anyway I am reliably informed that next Wednesday's government proposal for a 2nd referendum will be worded:
Desert
or
Stand firm
(only with Stand firm first)
Being inside without adopting the Euro is a strategic cul-de-sac - we can't stop the EZ doing as it pleases, nor should we. I think @SandyRentool and I are members of a very exclusive club; we believe that we should either be all the way out, or all the way in.
ISTR an episode of Morse turned on this point.
If the metropolitans get their way and the referendum result is overturned I will promptly join the European Movement and work for the UK to join the euro and Schengen.
When the people wanted Blair to become PM in 1997 they had to vote for him once.
When the people wanted to leave the EU in 2016, why must they be made to vote at least twice?
We either Remain part of the decision making bodies of Europe, or meekly trail in the footsteps of those who do decide.
Most of the EU states are in the Eurozone. If the currency is going to be made to work in the long term then they are going to need to give more power and authority to the centre. They will also, over time, need to make more and more common or co-ordinated decisions. They will caucus, and eventually the ability of countries to block core EU initiatives by qualified minority will become redundant. Then the ring of non-Euro states - including us - will find themselves effectively in a similar place to Norway by default. Yes, we'll also have our seats in the European Parliament (although whether or not non-Euro MEPs will be treated, either formally or informally, as second class remains to be seen,) but on the other hand we won't have the limited freedoms or additional protections enjoyed by the EFTA states.
In short, Britain will end up in exactly the position of powerlessness that today's Remain supporters claim as the key reason why we should reject any compromise Brexit deal such as that negotiated by Theresa May, and stay in the EU as a full member.
Given these circumstances, there are only two courses of action that make long-term sense for the country:
1. Accept that the days of the UK as a sovereign state are numbered, drop all our opt-outs and join the Euro. Then at least we would be a full participant in the project, and it should also solve the perfidious Albion problem at a stroke. We'd be locked in and we wouldn't be receiving any of the special perks that are resented.
2. Declare that the days of the UK as a sovereign state are not numbered, and make a clean break with the EU project rather than sit permanently in its outer orbit as a protectorate.
If people can't be persuaded to accept option 1 (and almost nobody in Britain, whichever side they were on in that accursed referendum, believes the Euro to be a success story,) then why not proceed directly to option 2? The longer we put off the inevitable, the more painful doing so becomes.
In those circumstances, if the public is going to be asked for its guidance, it would be appropriate to check it remained of the same view as to the ultimate outcome. It would be truly anti-democratic to exclude an outcome that was polling twice as well as at least one of the options under consideration.
The most extreme Leavers are among those most upset by the idea of a second referendum. But if they aren’t prepared to take what’s on offer, they can’t expect either morally or practically to impose on the public a Brexit that was not campaigned for and which apparently does not command majority support in either Parliament or among the public.
The UK over the last 30 years has built a global services powerhouse using the EC market while assisting Germany to build a global manufacturing powerhouse. There is a view that Germany got the better of the deal so we need a plan B.
I have been on this site for over 10 years on and off and believe I am the only owner of a SME manufacturer who posts regularly and this gives me a different perspective. I believe that a more balanced economy in which the UK produces more of its own consumption is good long term for the UK but I do not underestimate the challenge to get there.
Tte failure of most Brexiteers to acknowledge the complexity and scale of the project they propose is what scares me not the general plan. Last week I met with the only producer of glass vials in the UK. This may not seem important but every vaciinne dose requires a glass vial. Their capacity is a fraction of local demand. Most product is imported from Germany and the USA. The demand for locally sourced product is very strong with Brexit however even in the JV we are setting up it will take us a year to be able to supply existing contracts without taking on any new business. For the UK to become self sufficient may take 5 years.
Do we face a future with unemployed bankers, product shortages whilst we invest in capacity and frustrated youth who can no longer travel tte globe in the way they have become accustomed to?
Something that, needless to say, I want no part of.
Mr. Rook, that's the crux of the decision we face.
Good article, Mr. Brooke.
That's the view I'm minded to take right now and I don't intend to reward such failure in any potential second vote at the moment.
To my mind it either has to be May's Deal supported by parliament or a further referendum on the 3 principal options.
Exactly; Anglo-Saxon. Or; I've stayed with my wife for 60 years (almost)!
A decision to reverse the referendum will be taken as vindication by both the EU and Remainers and they will fail to learn any lessons beyond don't let the plebs have a choice.
*That is a collective you rather than a personal you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8Ybkj7oLJU
Suspect she'll end up beneath the rubble before she shifts it.