Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
And when the EU won’t accept this because it gives the U.K. all of the trade advantages and none of the political costs? (ignoring the fact that it STILL requires the withdrawal agreement to be passed)
The EU will likely accept it as the UK will have to concede full free movement as a result and give up the chance of its own trade deals, there is your political cost, it will be staying in the EU in all but name bar leaving the CFP. So on the end only fishermen get the Brexit they want
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
It's the europhobes who led us down this path. They need to accept responsibility.
Well, putting Corbyn and McDonnell in charge would at least see two men who campaigned for Leave running the show.
Everyone is STILL talking in generalities, non specifics.
A referendum - with what questions? A General Election - with parties advocating what Brexit solutions? “Renegotiations” - to do what?
Until any of those are answered properly we’re still hurtling towards no deal. At some point the EU will just say stuff it, we don’t care. Come back when you’ve sorted yourselves out and not a day sooner.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
I don't care about the DUP.
It's the EU I'm asking about.
As it concedes everything to the EU bar the CFP the EU will accept it, it just extends the backstop to the whole UK but with even more EU rules followed thsn was proposed by May for NI let alone GB.
Juncker and Barnier would shrug as we would now be the ultimate vassal state
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
They would, because whatever the polls say now what does voting Tory now even mean? Would they be for hard brexit, soft brexit? Even if they have a party leader with those positions they have dozens of rebels who there is not time to replace in selection processes. They would be arguing over what they stood for during the election, they would be riven. Corbyn could be vague as he likes about what he intends re Brexit, but given he has not cocked it up after 2 years of trying, and his MPs will be behind him more than any Tories would their leader, he has a better chance of maintaining his level from 2017 while the Tories will likely drop.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
Like redheads, I have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
I didn't know that redheads have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
I think TSE mistyped - he just likes redheads and he has a weakness for crap voting systems.
Everyone is STILL talking in generalities, non specifics.
A referendum - with what questions? A General Election - with parties advocating what Brexit solutions? “Renegotiations” - to do what?
Until any of those are answered properly we’re still hurtling towards no deal. At some point the EU will just say stuff it, we don’t care. Come back when you’ve sorted yourselves out and not a day sooner.
The EU is absolutely itching for the UK to Remain. The are not going to walk away.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
It's the europhobes who led us down this path. They need to accept responsibility.
Ha ha. It wasn’t eurosceptics who put us on the path to ever closer union with Maastricht, who lied about holding a referendum on Lisbon or who have produced this dogs dinner of a deal that Remain supporting May has concocted to appease the EU but do nothing for Britain.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
I don't care about the DUP.
It's the EU I'm asking about.
As it concedes everything to the EU bar the CFP the EU will accept it, it just extends the backstop to the whole UK but with even more EU rules followed thsn was proposed by May for NI let alone GB
If I could have a Christmas miracle, it would be for the Commons to just decide something already. Throwing it back to the people is a failure of their responsibility, and even party divided as they it should be possible. It won't, and it will still be a hard time ahead, but it would spare us so much immediate chaos and nonsense if they could do their jobs and decide.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
It's the europhobes who led us down this path. They need to accept responsibility.
No. Eurosceptics are overwhelmingly voting for this deal, which will avoid a crash. It would be pro-Europeans that vote down this deal leading to No Deal Corbynism.
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
Cold comfort, but not by the end of this year.
I don’t think a no confidence motion in the Government will carry in time. They have 21 days to set out next steps and I think they’d kick it into January, and the ERG wouldn’t no confidence May out as Tory leader over Christmas.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
That's a big assumption and we have seen before in recent times that different situations lead to quite different results than expected. An election campaign is quite different to the internecine goings on at Westminster, which the majority of the electorate couldn't give a flying fuck about.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
I think I dislike the whole notion of the Commons taking us into BINO even more than a second referendum. At least with a second referendum there’s an acknowledgment that the Commons can’t deliver Brexit and they’re throwing it back to the people. A BINO deal just smacks of “well you voted for Brexit and we’re giving you it but precious little of what actually made you vote leave is actually going to be respected. Sorry about that.”
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
...his MPs will be behind him more than any Tories would their leader, ...
If anyone had made that prediction a couple of years back, they would have been dismissed as a lunatic!
Yes, but on this he has let Starmer lead the show and inch them further and further toward remain, where most of his MPs want to be. And ultimately, he beat them. Every now and then one pops up to shake their head at their leader, and that justified in their heads that they are 'opposing' him, but by and large they have fallen into line and seem to have made peace with that.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
That's a big assumption and we have seen before in recent times that different situations lead to quite different results than expected. An election campaign is quite different to the internecine goings on at Westminster, which the majority of the electorate couldn't give a flying fuck about.
So tell me what manifesto the Tory party would be standing on?
I'll be generous, what would it say about Brexit?
Do you think the candidates will be able to stand behind it? I mean will Nicky Morgan and Jacob Rees-Mogg be able to support it?
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
I think I dislike the whole notion of the Commons taking us into BINO even more than a second referendum. At least with a second referendum there’s an acknowledgment that the Commons can’t deliver Brexit and they’re throwing it back to the people. A BINO deal just smacks of “well you voted for Brexit and we’re giving you it but precious little of what actually made you vote leave is actually going to be respected. Sorry about that.”
According to Laura Kuennsberg there is now a majority in the Commons for Single Market and Customs Union but still not for EUref2 so if May's Deal falls BINO it is
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
With Boris Leader of the Opposition shortly after
Tories are wise enough to choose someone relatively untarnished by the current shitshow. The ones to watch are the ones keeping their heads down right now.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
They would, because whatever the polls say now what does voting Tory now even mean? Would they be for hard brexit, soft brexit? Even if they have a party leader with those positions they have dozens of rebels who there is not time to replace in selection processes. They would be arguing over what they stood for during the election, they would be riven. Corbyn could be vague as he likes about what he intends re Brexit, but given he has not cocked it up after 2 years of trying, and his MPs will be behind him more than any Tories would their leader, he has a better chance of maintaining his level from 2017 while the Tories will likely drop.
The Tories couldn't even write a manifesto right now. Brexit is the biggest issue of the day, and the Tories would have nothing to say about is as there's no agreement in the party on the way ahead. Try and come up with a Brexit policy that say 75% of Tory MPs would support right now. I don't think it could be done.
Even Corbyn's "we'll just ask the EU to let us pick which of the four freedoms we want" — which is nuts — would at least get agreement from most Labour MPs even if it can't be delivered.
It's debatable whether Britain is even governable right now. Parliament, the political parties, and the public are all pulling in different directions.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
The Conservatives would probably slump to 35-36% but Labour would lose some of its sheen with stopping Brexit no longer driving its vote, and fear of Corbyn.
If I had to guess now I’d say the Tories lost c.30 seats (not in Scotland out of SNP fear) and Corbyn could form a wafer thin Government with SNP support.
I would expect that to last about 12-18 months and become unpopular fairly quickly.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
Everyone is STILL talking in generalities, non specifics.
A referendum - with what questions? A General Election - with parties advocating what Brexit solutions? “Renegotiations” - to do what?
Until any of those are answered properly we’re still hurtling towards no deal. At some point the EU will just say stuff it, we don’t care. Come back when you’ve sorted yourselves out and not a day sooner.
The EU is absolutely itching for the UK to Remain. The are not going to walk away.
They’ll be happy for us to have six months in the cooler, and then a fast track rejoin.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
It's the europhobes who led us down this path. They need to accept responsibility.
No. Eurosceptics are overwhelmingly voting for this deal, which will avoid a crash. It would be pro-Europeans that vote down this deal leading to No Deal Corbynism.
Your earlier claim that Leave MPs are backing this deal is undiluted tosh. I took the time to analyse how those MPs who backed Brexit in 2016 and who are still in Parliament have said that they will vote next week. Even if you credit every single undeclared MP as backing the deal - a very brave assumption given some of the names - opponents still far outnumber supporters.
Perhaps you can explain how you define Eurosceptic so we can judge whether this latest reformulaton is equally at variance with the facts.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
Because the best thing we can say about the alternative is that he's a serial liar with the IQ of a stuffed donkey.
That was obvious in 2017 and he still got a load of votes. The Tories are in disarray now, it's hard to see their vote holding up if we crash into a general election.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
It would be - only if they enforced the rules they made. Which unfortunately, they never do.
One of the ironies is that governments did have considerable latitude in many areas within the EU, and yet found it convenient to blame the EU for much of their laziness.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
That's a big assumption and we have seen before in recent times that different situations lead to quite different results than expected. An election campaign is quite different to the internecine goings on at Westminster, which the majority of the electorate couldn't give a flying fuck about.
So tell me what manifesto the Tory party would be standing on?
I'll be generous, what would it say about Brexit?
Do you think the candidates will be able to stand behind it? I mean will Nicky Morgan and Jacob Rees-Mogg be able to support it?
You're assuming a general election campaign would be about Brexit. That's what people thought ahead of the 2017 GE and it wasn't. Even now, probably the most the majority of the electorate can summon regarding Brexit if they even talk about it is "hopefully it gets sorted soon one way or another".
The Tories ought to be at least just as worried about their track record regarding other domestic issues if a GE is called imminently. Believe it or not, outside the Political Betting and Westminster bubbles there are issues other than Brexit.
None of them look like playing into Tory hands, granted, but we saw in 2017 that half the battle's the campaign.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
Who can tell what platform the Tories would stand on. If it was more Brexit it would lose more votes than it would gain. I know many people who voted Tory including myself in 2017 who would either sit on their hands or vote for LD or even possibly Labour depending on their platform to end this Brexit nightmare. Brexit is Toxic.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
It's the europhobes who led us down this path. They need to accept responsibility.
No. Eurosceptics are overwhelmingly voting for this deal, which will avoid a crash. It would be pro-Europeans that vote down this deal leading to No Deal Corbynism.
Your earlier claim that Leave MPs are backing this deal is undiluted tosh. I took the time to analyse how those MPs who backed Brexit in 2016 and who are still in Parliament have said that they will vote next week. Even if you credit every single undeclared MP as backing the deal - a very brave assumption given some of the names - opponents still far outnumber supporters.
Perhaps you can explain how you define Eurosceptic so we can judge whether this latest reformulaton is equally at variance with the facts.
In addition to which, it was the prospective lemmings who were quickly out of their traps rubbishing the deal in the media and trashing it with Tory members, before anyone on the Remain side had read it.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
Because the best thing we can say about the alternative is that he's a serial liar with the IQ of a stuffed donkey.
That was obvious in 2017 and he still got a load of votes. The Tories are in disarray now, it's hard to see their vote holding up if we crash into a general election.
On the contrary, it's very easy to see it holding up. It's just impossible to see them adding to it.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
Democracy is the freedom for electorates to elect whoever they damn well please. Tories have no divine right to rule forever.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
I think I dislike the whole notion of the Commons taking us into BINO even more than a second referendum. At least with a second referendum there’s an acknowledgment that the Commons can’t deliver Brexit and they’re throwing it back to the people. A BINO deal just smacks of “well you voted for Brexit and we’re giving you it but precious little of what actually made you vote leave is actually going to be respected. Sorry about that.”
According to Laura Kuennsberg there is now a majority in the Commons for Single Market and Customs Union but still not for EUref2 so if May's Deal falls BINO it is
For about the 100th time, HOW DO YOU GET TO “BINO” WITHOUT GOING THROUGH MAY’S DEAL/ THE WITHDRAWAL AGEEMENT FIRST?
BINO still needs negotiating, it’s not an “off the shelf solution” which means we still need withdrawal agreement (with backstop) and transition period.
Jacob Rees-Mogg following meeting with Nigel Dodds: The DUP will support the government in a confidence motion if the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down. But the risk of losing them and having an election is if the WA goes through.
So the rumour that Rees-Mogg was backing the WA is apparently wrong, since I'm sure he doesn't want an election.
And yes, I can't see 3 more years of this - referendum or election or both in 2019 seems nailed on.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
That's a big assumption and we have seen before in recent times that different situations lead to quite different results than expected. An election campaign is quite different to the internecine goings on at Westminster, which the majority of the electorate couldn't give a flying fuck about.
So tell me what manifesto the Tory party would be standing on?
I'll be generous, what would it say about Brexit?
Do you think the candidates will be able to stand behind it? I mean will Nicky Morgan and Jacob Rees-Mogg be able to support it?
You're assuming a general election campaign would be about Brexit. That's what people thought ahead of the 2017 GE and it wasn't. Even now, probably the most the majority of the electorate can summon regarding Brexit if they even talk about it is "hopefully it gets sorted soon one way or another".
The Tories ought to be at least just as worried about their track record regarding other domestic issues if a GE is called imminently. Believe it or not, outside the Political Betting and Westminster bubbles there are issues other than Brexit.
Indeed. UC and education cuts per capita ought to be the killer for the Tories.
But since Corbyn has in the passed indicated he's happy with benefit cuts and his policies would cut school funding far more savagely by causing a rapid rise in pupil numbers as the private sector collapsed, they won't be.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
That's a big assumption and we have seen before in recent times that different situations lead to quite different results than expected. An election campaign is quite different to the internecine goings on at Westminster, which the majority of the electorate couldn't give a flying fuck about.
So tell me what manifesto the Tory party would be standing on?
I'll be generous, what would it say about Brexit?
Do you think the candidates will be able to stand behind it? I mean will Nicky Morgan and Jacob Rees-Mogg be able to support it?
You're assuming a general election campaign would be about Brexit. That's what people thought ahead of the 2017 GE and it wasn't. Even now, probably the most the majority of the electorate can summon regarding Brexit if they even talk about it is "hopefully it gets sorted soon one way or another".
The Tories ought to be at least just as worried about their track record regarding other domestic issues if a GE is called imminently. Believe it or not, outside the Political Betting and Westminster bubbles there are issues other than Brexit.
You are saying that a general election brought about because Parliament can't deliver Brexit won't be mainly about Brexit?
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
With Boris Leader of the Opposition shortly after
Tories are wise enough to choose someone relatively untarnished by the current shitshow. The ones to watch are the ones keeping their heads down right now.
Boris is the ideal candidate to rally Leavers who will instantly be crying 'betrayal' as soon as the Commons votes for SM and CU BINO
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
I don't care about the DUP.
It's the EU I'm asking about.
As it concedes everything to the EU bar the CFP the EU will accept it, it just extends the backstop to the whole UK but with even more EU rules followed thsn was proposed by May for NI let alone GB
France may not.
Francesca only proposing to block a future trade deal, with BINO no trade deal is needed
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
With Boris Leader of the Opposition shortly after
Tories are wise enough to choose someone relatively untarnished by the current shitshow. The ones to watch are the ones keeping their heads down right now.
Boris is the ideal candidate to rally Leavers who will instantly be crying 'betrayal' as soon as the Commons votes for SM and CU BINO
I know about 20 people who voted Tory in 2017, if Boris is leader they will not vote Tory...… They are pretty representative of long term tory voters! Not these one election transfers of 2017.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
I think I dislike the whole notion of the Commons taking us into BINO even more than a second referendum. At least with a second referendum there’s an acknowledgment that the Commons can’t deliver Brexit and they’re throwing it back to the people. A BINO deal just smacks of “well you voted for Brexit and we’re giving you it but precious little of what actually made you vote leave is actually going to be respected. Sorry about that.”
According to Laura Kuennsberg there is now a majority in the Commons for Single Market and Customs Union but still not for EUref2 so if May's Deal falls BINO it is
Fine. A lot of people will be very mad, and they can elect someone to do it properly at the 2019GE.
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
They would, because whatever the polls say now what does voting Tory now even mean? Would they be for hard brexit, soft brexit? Even if they have a party leader with those positions they have dozens of rebels who there is not time to replace in selection processes. They would be arguing over what they stood for during the election, they would be riven. Corbyn could be vague as he likes about what he intends re Brexit, but given he has not cocked it up after 2 years of trying, and his MPs will be behind him more than any Tories would their leader, he has a better chance of maintaining his level from 2017 while the Tories will likely drop.
The Tories couldn't even write a manifesto right now. Brexit is the biggest issue of the day, and the Tories would have nothing to say about is as there's no agreement in the party on the way ahead. Try and come up with a Brexit policy that say 75% of Tory MPs would support right now. I don't think it could be done.
Even Corbyn's "we'll just ask the EU to let us pick which of the four freedoms we want" — which is nuts — would at least get agreement from most Labour MPs even if it can't be delivered.
It's debatable whether Britain is even governable right now. Parliament, the political parties, and the public are all pulling in different directions.
The point made at the end of the PM programme today (by Humphries, I think) was that the current party system is broken and sooner or latter will have to realign. A bold prediction, especially since it's been said for years. But who knows?
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
You tried Project Fear during the referendum and it didn’t work. I see you’ve learnt nothing.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
I think I dislike the whole notion of the Commons taking us into BINO even more than a second referendum. At least with a second referendum there’s an acknowledgment that the Commons can’t deliver Brexit and they’re throwing it back to the people. A BINO deal just smacks of “well you voted for Brexit and we’re giving you it but precious little of what actually made you vote leave is actually going to be respected. Sorry about that.”
According to Laura Kuennsberg there is now a majority in the Commons for Single Market and Customs Union but still not for EUref2 so if May's Deal falls BINO it is
Fine. A lot of people will be very mad, and they can elect someone to do it properly at the 2019GE.
Perhaps Parliament will vote to extend itself. The perfect solution - no majority (except for their Brexit solution) in perpetuity...
Everyone seems to be assuming that if there was a general election Labour would 'win' it.
How could the Tories win a general election when the party is currently fighting with itself rather than against the opposition?
That's a big assumption and we have seen before in recent times that different situations lead to quite different results than expected. An election campaign is quite different to the internecine goings on at Westminster, which the majority of the electorate couldn't give a flying fuck about.
So tell me what manifesto the Tory party would be standing on?
I'll be generous, what would it say about Brexit?
Do you think the candidates will be able to stand behind it? I mean will Nicky Morgan and Jacob Rees-Mogg be able to support it?
You're assuming a general election campaign would be about Brexit. That's what people thought ahead of the 2017 GE and it wasn't. Even now, probably the most the majority of the electorate can summon regarding Brexit if they even talk about it is "hopefully it gets sorted soon one way or another".
The Tories ought to be at least just as worried about their track record regarding other domestic issues if a GE is called imminently. Believe it or not, outside the Political Betting and Westminster bubbles there are issues other than Brexit.
You are saying that a general election brought about because Parliament can't deliver Brexit won't be mainly about Brexit?
I'm saying yes, there is a chance. The GE campaign could very well still mainly revolve around the everyday bread and butter issues. Which look even worse for the Tories at the moment, potentially.;..
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
Democracy is the freedom for electorates to elect whoever they damn well please. Tories have no divine right to rule forever.
True, but I was thinking about the limits a Corbyn Government might find in the EU on state aid, exchange controls and this sort of issue. So the very thing Brexiteers hate might actually protect them!
But is it not common to assume that in agreeing to a contract, there has been no false representation and crooked dealing? If it is shown that there has been some mal practice- as is the case here - then surely the customary legal expectations are blown sky high....
A simple bookkeeping error is not really in the same class as spending millions of pounds from mysterious overseas sources, with the intention to rig the result, Mr Eagles. I know you will do everything in your power to discredit the Lib Dems. If it were not you, I feel that this would be counted as trolling.
How about relying on a technicality to benefit from the proceeds of crime?
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
You tried Project Fear during the referendum and it didn’t work. I see you’ve learnt nothing.
Sadly, I don’t think anyone has learnt anything from the last 2 1/2 years.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
I don't care about the DUP.
It's the EU I'm asking about.
As it concedes everything to the EU bar the CFP the EU will accept it, it just extends the backstop to the whole UK but with even more EU rules followed thsn was proposed by May for NI let alone GB
France may not.
Francesca only proposing to block a future trade deal, with BINO no trade deal is needed
Everyone is STILL talking in generalities, non specifics.
A referendum - with what questions? A General Election - with parties advocating what Brexit solutions? “Renegotiations” - to do what?
Until any of those are answered properly we’re still hurtling towards no deal. At some point the EU will just say stuff it, we don’t care. Come back when you’ve sorted yourselves out and not a day sooner.
The EU is absolutely itching for the UK to Remain. The are not going to walk away.
They’ll be happy for us to have six months in the cooler, and then a fast track rejoin.
That makes zero sense. We either leave now and meant it; or we delay Article 50 if we need more time (which of course they will agree to). No deal only favoured in Parliament by an extreme (in all senses) minority.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
I think I dislike the whole notion of the Commons taking us into BINO even more than a second referendum. At least with a second referendum there’s an acknowledgment that the Commons can’t deliver Brexit and they’re throwing it back to the people. A BINO deal just smacks of “well you voted for Brexit and we’re giving you it but precious little of what actually made you vote leave is actually going to be respected. Sorry about that.”
According to Laura Kuennsberg there is now a majority in the Commons for Single Market and Customs Union but still not for EUref2 so if May's Deal falls BINO it is
Dreadful news. If LK thinks that, the chances of it being true are minimal.
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
Cold comfort, but not by the end of this year.
I don’t think a no confidence motion in the Government will carry in time. They have 21 days to set out next steps and I think they’d kick it into January, and the ERG wouldn’t no confidence May out as Tory leader over Christmas.
If a parliamentary VONC is passed then the government must resign, and the FTPA fourteen day period begins within which a positive vote of confidence in a new administration must be passed by the Commons, without which the Queen is required to dissolve Parliament. As we've discussed before, in that case a new Parliament won't be elected and in place before the end of January at the earliest.
As to who becomes PM when the government resigns through loss of confidence, well the Queen has discretion over who to ask to form a new government. It may not necessarily be the LOTO, although they are the obvious and usual candidate. The usual practice includes the Queen asking the outgoing PM who they think is most likely to be able to command the confidence of the Commons and so be commissioned to attempt to form a government. May might advise the Queen to appoint another Tory, or even ask herself to stay on, as caretaker while the Tories elect a new leader. I would imagine such a caretaker might seek to stop the FTPA clock through a positive vote of confidence, but it's not guaranteed they'd succeed.
AFAIK the Queen is not bound to follow that advice, she could summon Corbyn, even though it is highly unlikely he'd be able get a positive vote of confidence before the FTPA clock runs out.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
You tried Project Fear during the referendum and it didn’t work. I see you’ve learnt nothing.
You said that a Corbyn/ McDonnell government would be worse than No Deal Brexit, you were trying to use fear of them.
The conservatives seem to have entered into a collective madness that was perhaps always under the surface regarding Europe. Talking to a prominent leave MP yesterday, he commented that when even he mentions no deal is crazy and bad for business (so we should take the deal), the ERG respond by saying "project fear" to him. Crazy.
A moderate and credible opposition should be 20 points ahead now. At least.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
I don't care about the DUP.
It's the EU I'm asking about.
As it concedes everything to the EU bar the CFP the EU will accept it, it just extends the backstop to the whole UK but with even more EU rules followed thsn was proposed by May for NI let alone GB
France may not.
Francesca only proposing to block a future trade deal, with BINO no trade deal is needed
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
With Boris Leader of the Opposition shortly after
Tories are wise enough to choose someone relatively untarnished by the current shitshow. The ones to watch are the ones keeping their heads down right now.
Boris is the ideal candidate to rally Leavers who will instantly be crying 'betrayal' as soon as the Commons votes for SM and CU BINO
I know about 20 people who voted Tory in 2017, if Boris is leader they will not vote Tory...… They are pretty representative of long term tory voters! Not these one election transfers of 2017.
A few may move to the LDs, Boris will also win back some from UKIP, Boris is the only candidate polled who has ever got a higher Tory voteshare than May v Labour in hypothetical polls since she became leader
I will vote "no deal" if it is presented to me as an option in a referendum, otherwise I shall boycott it. I take democracy seriously.
I think I'd spoil my ballot if it were Remain vs the Deal that Parliament doesn't want.
That would be playing into Remainers hands.
I mean remain is better than May's deal, but it only puts us back to square one, yet angrier, two years older, but none the wiser wiser. But at least it doesn't trap us in an eternal purgatorial backstop hell scenario.
Much wiser Cock old boy, taught us not to have morons running the country, or at least should have. The current cabinet are just unbelievably useless, Tories need flushed out.
I will vote "no deal" if it is presented to me as an option in a referendum, otherwise I shall boycott it. I take democracy seriously.
I think I'd spoil my ballot if it were Remain vs the Deal that Parliament doesn't want.
That would be playing into Remainers hands.
I mean remain is better than May's deal, but it only puts us back to square one, yet angrier, two years older, but none the wiser wiser. But at least it doesn't trap us in an eternal purgatorial backstop hell scenario.
Much wiser Cock old boy, taught us not to have morons running the country, or at least should have. The current cabinet are just unbelievably useless, Tories need flushed out.
And where are we supposed to find these non morons to take their place? I am completely open to the idea that a party which thinks the likes of Grayling and Fox are worthy of Cabinet posts is beyond desperately short of talent but have you looked at the shadow cabinet recently?
Comments
Even if it was in 1983 and 1975.
A referendum - with what questions?
A General Election - with parties advocating what Brexit solutions?
“Renegotiations” - to do what?
Until any of those are answered properly we’re still hurtling towards no deal. At some point the EU will just say stuff it, we don’t care. Come back when you’ve sorted yourselves out and not a day sooner.
Juncker and Barnier would shrug as we would now be the ultimate vassal state
I don’t think a no confidence motion in the Government will carry in time. They have 21 days to set out next steps and I think they’d kick it into January, and the ERG wouldn’t no confidence May out as Tory leader over Christmas.
I'll be generous, what would it say about Brexit?
Do you think the candidates will be able to stand behind it? I mean will Nicky Morgan and Jacob Rees-Mogg be able to support it?
If a GE intervenes first I still expect such a deal because I don’t think Corbyn wins an absolute majority on the current political map.
If anyone can, it's more difficult from going to Birmingham by way of Beachy Head.
Even Corbyn's "we'll just ask the EU to let us pick which of the four freedoms we want" — which is nuts — would at least get agreement from most Labour MPs even if it can't be delivered.
It's debatable whether Britain is even governable right now. Parliament, the political parties, and the public are all pulling in different directions.
If I had to guess now I’d say the Tories lost c.30 seats (not in Scotland out of SNP fear) and Corbyn could form a wafer thin Government with SNP support.
I would expect that to last about 12-18 months and become unpopular fairly quickly.
Perhaps you can explain how you define Eurosceptic so we can judge whether this latest reformulaton is equally at variance with the facts.
One of the ironies is that governments did have considerable latitude in many areas within the EU, and yet found it convenient to blame the EU for much of their laziness.
The Tories ought to be at least just as worried about their track record regarding other domestic issues if a GE is called imminently. Believe it or not, outside the Political Betting and Westminster bubbles there are issues other than Brexit.
None of them look like playing into Tory hands, granted, but we saw in 2017 that half the battle's the campaign.
BINO still needs negotiating, it’s not an “off the shelf solution” which means we still need withdrawal agreement (with backstop) and transition period.
And yes, I can't see 3 more years of this - referendum or election or both in 2019 seems nailed on.
But since Corbyn has in the passed indicated he's happy with benefit cuts and his policies would cut school funding far more savagely by causing a rapid rise in pupil numbers as the private sector collapsed, they won't be.
The night we went to Bannockburn by way of Brighton Pier.
Have a good evening.
Dreadful news. If LK thinks that, the chances of it being true are minimal.
As to who becomes PM when the government resigns through loss of confidence, well the Queen has discretion over who to ask to form a new government. It may not necessarily be the LOTO, although they are the obvious and usual candidate. The usual practice includes the Queen asking the outgoing PM who they think is most likely to be able to command the confidence of the Commons and so be commissioned to attempt to form a government. May might advise the Queen to appoint another Tory, or even ask herself to stay on, as caretaker while the Tories elect a new leader. I would imagine such a caretaker might seek to stop the FTPA clock through a positive vote of confidence, but it's not guaranteed they'd succeed.
AFAIK the Queen is not bound to follow that advice, she could summon Corbyn, even though it is highly unlikely he'd be able get a positive vote of confidence before the FTPA clock runs out.
A moderate and credible opposition should be 20 points ahead now. At least.
NEW THREAD
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried.
Labour leadership want a GE above all else.
Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit.
Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
That's the power of targeted advertising, and why they are able to charge so much money for it