This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:
I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
Revolutions usually end with revolutionaries on the guillotine. We are entering that phase of Brexit when the tumbrils start to roll.
I'm looking forward to a day of reckoning for those who spent forty years trying to slide us so deeply into the EU it was supposedly impossible to leave.
That tumbril is going to have quite a journey, collecting Nick Clegg from California....
I think this really hinges on what the UK and EU can do to qualify the backstop. That alone could unlock c.50 Tory MPs.
I don't really believe all 100+ Tory MPs currently opposing really want No Deal, or to secretly Remain, and instead feel honour bound to oppose it and be seen as part of the negotiating solution, so they can back it the final deal with honour.
So even if a first vote fails by, say, 390 to 210, a second needs to pull across those 50 Tory MPs, plus a similar number from Labour, or at least encourage dozens of abstentions, which should happen if there's nothing else on the table other than No Deal and no A50 extension in sight.
Other than that I wouldn't rule out May calling a referendum on her deal, but I'm not sure how she'd get it through the Commons quickly.
There's clearly a lot of MPs who would like said referendum. But the mechanics of it still look tricky. Ignoring the significant matter of question and options, how would it get through the Commons?
I think May could trigger such a vote but the time frame to do so would be small. Her successor as Conservative leader would be unlikely to do so. The mooted Government of National Unity perhaps led by a Ken Clarke type figure could do so, and have the numbers, but the shift and break down in party allegiances would be immense.
Edited extra bit: plan on putting my season review up today, incidentally.
What May needs is for the 48 letters to go in, then win the Tory VONC. She is then bullet proof for a year, She can then bring through the #peoplesvote as a government bill. The only way the ERG could stop it would be to VONC the entire government and bring on a GE.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
There is no prospect of a second referendum. But that doesn't stop it being important. Leaving without one robs Brexit of a chunk of its legitimacy. As soon as we have left the argument switches to rejoining. "They wouldn't let the people vote on the deal" will be a potent weapon. "Even Tory ministers wanted a referendum."
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.
Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
That's the real insight as to why Theresa is spending her time trying to convince the public rather than MPs that her deal is best - because she may put it to a referendum.
I think this really hinges on what the UK and EU can do to qualify the backstop. That alone could unlock c.50 Tory MPs.
I don't really believe all 100+ Tory MPs currently opposing really want No Deal, or to secretly Remain, and instead feel honour bound to oppose it and be seen as part of the negotiating solution, so they can back it the final deal with honour.
So even if a first vote fails by, say, 390 to 210, a second needs to pull across those 50 Tory MPs, plus a similar number from Labour, or at least encourage dozens of abstentions, which should happen if there's nothing else on the table other than No Deal and no A50 extension in sight.
Other than that I wouldn't rule out May calling a referendum on her deal, but I'm not sure how she'd get it through the Commons quickly.
She'd need to bung a couple of billion to the DUP.
Or (a thought that struck me the othe day) she could commit to a Feasability Study for Boris's NI-Scotland tunnel-bridge idea - the one that got rapturous applause when Boris mentioned it at the DUP Conference. Gives both the DUP and Boris an excuse to get back on board. She could call it "the Union Bridge".....
(I'm not sure how NI having a bridge would bugger up the EU's notion of carving NI off from GB?)
This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:
I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
Revolutions usually end with revolutionaries on the guillotine. We are entering that phase of Brexit when the tumbrils start to roll.
I'm looking forward to a day of reckoning for those who spent forty years trying to slide us so deeply into the EU it was supposedly impossible to leave.
That tumbril is going to have quite a journey, collecting Nick Clegg from California....
It has never been impossible to leave, just very foolish to do so. Particularly with no preparation and a bunch of halfwits driving the process.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
There is no prospect of a second referendum. But that doesn't stop it being important. Leaving without one robs Brexit of a chunk of its legitimacy. As soon as we have left the argument switches to rejoining. "They wouldn't let the people vote on the deal" will be a potent weapon. "Even Tory ministers wanted a referendum."
Yes, there is now quite a strong network ready to promote a Rejoin movement, on the basis that we got a deal that the people opposed.
If Leavers want a Deal/No-Deal to stick, then they too should call for a #peoplesvote.
This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:
I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
Revolutions usually end with revolutionaries on the guillotine. We are entering that phase of Brexit when the tumbrils start to roll.
Citoyens! Il est à craindre que la révolution, comme Saturne, dévore successivement tous ses enfants et engendre enfin le despotisme avec les calamités qui l’accompagnent.
Let's hope the second half of Verginiaud's aphorism doesn't come to pass but it's looking bang on at the moment.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
There is no prospect of a second referendum. But that doesn't stop it being important. Leaving without one robs Brexit of a chunk of its legitimacy. As soon as we have left the argument switches to rejoining. "They wouldn't let the people vote on the deal" will be a potent weapon. "Even Tory ministers wanted a referendum."
Yes, there is now quite a strong network ready to promote a Rejoin movement, on the basis that we got a deal that the people opposed.
If Leavers want a Deal/No-Deal to stick, then they too should call for a #peoplesvote.
One man's "strong network" is another man's Fifth Column....
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.
Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
I know you *really* want a second referendum to happen, but nothing I’ve said there is untrue. A second referendum would have to be done by an Act of Parliament which (effectively) only the government can introduce.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.
Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
I know you *really* want a second referendum to happen, but nothing I’ve said there is untrue. A second referendum would have to be done by an Act of Parliament which (effectively) only the government can introduce.
That is how it may happen.
If not, it will happen fairly soon after the fall of this government, possibly as a Rejoin referendum.
This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:
I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
Revolutions usually end with revolutionaries on the guillotine. We are entering that phase of Brexit when the tumbrils start to roll.
I'm looking forward to a day of reckoning for those who spent forty years trying to slide us so deeply into the EU it was supposedly impossible to leave.
That tumbril is going to have quite a journey, collecting Nick Clegg from California....
It has never been impossible to leave, just very foolish to do so. Particularly with no preparation and a bunch of halfwits driving the process.
I'd agree about the halfwits making no preparation.
Yes, I'm looking at you, Theresa May and Philip Hammond......
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
There is no prospect of a second referendum. But that doesn't stop it being important. Leaving without one robs Brexit of a chunk of its legitimacy. As soon as we have left the argument switches to rejoining. "They wouldn't let the people vote on the deal" will be a potent weapon. "Even Tory ministers wanted a referendum."
Yes, there is now quite a strong network ready to promote a Rejoin movement, on the basis that we got a deal that the people opposed.
If Leavers want a Deal/No-Deal to stick, then they too should call for a #peoplesvote.
One man's "strong network" is another man's Fifth Column....
Dr. Foxy, had the ERG got the numbers to do so (it seems quite a few realised the potential consequences of losing said vote), I think it would've unfolded that way.
Ironically, the failure to muster the numbers to challenge May's leadership formally means she's in a far weaker position than she would have been had the requisite letters gone in.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
There is no prospect of a second referendum. But that doesn't stop it being important. Leaving without one robs Brexit of a chunk of its legitimacy. As soon as we have left the argument switches to rejoining. "They wouldn't let the people vote on the deal" will be a potent weapon. "Even Tory ministers wanted a referendum."
Yes, there is now quite a strong network ready to promote a Rejoin movement, on the basis that we got a deal that the people opposed.
If Leavers want a Deal/No-Deal to stick, then they too should call for a #peoplesvote.
One man's "strong network" is another man's Fifth Column....
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.
Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
I know you *really* want a second referendum to happen, but nothing I’ve said there is untrue. A second referendum would have to be done by an Act of Parliament which (effectively) only the government can introduce.
That is how it may happen.
If not, it will happen fairly soon after the fall of this government, possibly as a Rejoin referendum.
Rejoin? The respone of the great majority will be "Europe? Again? Really? Just STOP PICKING THAT SCAB!"
This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:
I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
Revolutions usually end with revolutionaries on the guillotine. We are entering that phase of Brexit when the tumbrils start to roll.
I'm looking forward to a day of reckoning for those who spent forty years trying to slide us so deeply into the EU it was supposedly impossible to leave.
That tumbril is going to have quite a journey, collecting Nick Clegg from California....
I would find it Impossible to give up breathable air, much more difficult than fizzy. Doesn't mean that fizzy is good and water is evil.
Dr. Foxy, had the ERG got the numbers to do so (it seems quite a few realised the potential consequences of losing said vote), I think it would've unfolded that way.
Ironically, the failure to muster the numbers to challenge May's leadership formally means she's in a far weaker position than she would have been had the requisite letters gone in.
I’d agree with that. If the ERG genuinely think that Theresa will try and call a second referendum then it’s better for them to sit on their hands for now and wait til she shows her cards. Surely she’d be a gonner if she tried to introduce referendum legislation without having won the confidence vote beforehand.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.
Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
I know you *really* want a second referendum to happen, but nothing I’ve said there is untrue. A second referendum would have to be done by an Act of Parliament which (effectively) only the government can introduce.
That is how it may happen.
If not, it will happen fairly soon after the fall of this government, possibly as a Rejoin referendum.
Rejoin? The respone of the great majority will be "Europe? Again? Really? Just STOP PICKING THAT SCAB!"
You think? The EU is just going to stop being an issue?
I can just about see May taking her deal to the country if she finds the Commons unable to agree anything. I don’t think she will take no deal because she is convinced that it would be bad for the country. A yes/no option is possible but highly problematic.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.
Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
I know you *really* want a second referendum to happen, but nothing I’ve said there is untrue. A second referendum would have to be done by an Act of Parliament which (effectively) only the government can introduce.
That is how it may happen.
If not, it will happen fairly soon after the fall of this government, possibly as a Rejoin referendum.
Rejoin? The respone of the great majority will be "Europe? Again? Really? Just STOP PICKING THAT SCAB!"
You think? The EU is just going to stop being an issue?
Starting to think that May will offer a people's vote between Remain and No Deal. Breaks the deadlock. No Deal stands a decent chance of winning.
The only course of events that can heal the rift now is:
May's "Norwegian Blue" deal goes to its well deserved oblivion #peoplesvote - Remain vs No Deal No Deal wins (referendum honoured, vox populi vox dei, all that bollocks) IRL Fallout 76 Rejoin after 8 years of crisis communism under Corbyn with PM Gyimah.
Starting to think that May will offer a people's vote between Remain and No Deal. Breaks the deadlock. No Deal stands a decent chance of winning.
The only course of events that can heal the rift now is:
May's "Norwegian Blue" deal goes to its well deserved oblivion #peoplesvote - Remain vs No Deal No Deal wins (referendum honoured, vox populi vox dei, all that bollocks) IRL Fallout 76 Rejoin after 8 years of crisis communism under Corbyn with PM Gyimah.
Great to hear Frank Bruno in such good form on the radio.
As for the subject matter everyone is calling it for a Wilder knockout and who’s to say they’re wrong. Can Fury avoid the bombs for 12 rounds? Not likely and I can’t see Fury being allowed to outbox Wilder for 12 rounds but people rate Fury also (me less so) and I’m sitting it out betting-wise and will just enjoy the fight.
So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:
1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.
2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.
What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.
Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.
Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.
This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
Early January - Government loses VONC (with some Tory Remainers voting against the Government and in support of a GONU see below).
Within 14 days - Corbyn tries and fails to form government that has the confidence of the House
Within same 14 days - temporary "Government of National Unity" lead by Grieve (or someone else without ambition but respected across parties) gains the confidence of the House on a platform of a) asking for an extension of A50 b) enabling a second referendum c) holding a general election when the result of the referendum is known.
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That tumbril is going to have quite a journey, collecting Nick Clegg from California....
I don't really believe all 100+ Tory MPs currently opposing really want No Deal, or to secretly Remain, and instead feel honour bound to oppose it and be seen as part of the negotiating solution, so they can back it the final deal with honour.
So even if a first vote fails by, say, 390 to 210, a second needs to pull across those 50 Tory MPs, plus a similar number from Labour, or at least encourage dozens of abstentions, which should happen if there's nothing else on the table other than No Deal and no A50 extension in sight.
Other than that I wouldn't rule out May calling a referendum on her deal, but I'm not sure how she'd get it through the Commons quickly.
because she may put it to a referendum.
Or (a thought that struck me the othe day) she could commit to a Feasability Study for Boris's NI-Scotland tunnel-bridge idea - the one that got rapturous applause when Boris mentioned it at the DUP Conference. Gives both the DUP and Boris an excuse to get back on board. She could call it "the Union Bridge".....
(I'm not sure how NI having a bridge would bugger up the EU's notion of carving NI off from GB?)
If Leavers want a Deal/No-Deal to stick, then they too should call for a #peoplesvote.
Let's hope the second half of Verginiaud's aphorism doesn't come to pass but it's looking bang on at the moment.
If not, it will happen fairly soon after the fall of this government, possibly as a Rejoin referendum.
Yes, I'm looking at you, Theresa May and Philip Hammond......
Ironically, the failure to muster the numbers to challenge May's leadership formally means she's in a far weaker position than she would have been had the requisite letters gone in.
May's "Norwegian Blue" deal goes to its well deserved oblivion
#peoplesvote - Remain vs No Deal
No Deal wins (referendum honoured, vox populi vox dei, all that bollocks)
IRL Fallout 76
Rejoin after 8 years of crisis communism under Corbyn with PM Gyimah.
This thread is officially older than Jeremy Corbyn's thought processes.
We are in agreement for once on this. Just maybe for once the ERG will think this through.
God, I am optimistic this morning.
As for the subject matter everyone is calling it for a Wilder knockout and who’s to say they’re wrong. Can Fury avoid the bombs for 12 rounds? Not likely and I can’t see Fury being allowed to outbox Wilder for 12 rounds but people rate Fury also (me less so) and I’m sitting it out betting-wise and will just enjoy the fight.
Within 14 days - Corbyn tries and fails to form government that has the confidence of the House
Within same 14 days - temporary "Government of National Unity" lead by Grieve (or someone else without ambition but respected across parties) gains the confidence of the House on a platform of a) asking for an extension of A50 b) enabling a second referendum c) holding a general election when the result of the referendum is known.