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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters now put the chances of a 2019 Brexit referendu

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    FF43 said:

    Very clear and as straightforward as can be explanation of what May's "deal" is and isn't. Recommended reading

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1068596197873598464

    Thanks. I found that really helpful.

    As a result of reading it, though, I am finding it harder to see why majority of MPs are not supporting May's deal tbh.
    Because they're all a bunch of grandstanding wazzocks that can't wait to show their peacock manes off to the Daily Brexitgraph.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    Sam Gyimah, the universities and science minister, has resigned in protest at the Government’s “naive” Brexit plan, saying that any deal we strike with Brussels will be “EU first”

    Er, hold on, 'any deal'? Ok, seriously, why would he not have resigned well before now then if he thinks any deal would be unacceptable?

    Seems like in his comments he's doing it so we can Remain. Which is a point of view one can hold, but given his comments that any deal would in essence be unacceptable I don't see why the latest comments on Gallileo were the tipping point for him.

    He means any deal on the future relationship.
    How does that make a difference? He thinks any deal on the future relationship won't work for us, so no matter what the WA was he presumably thinks the same thing, in which case what did he think they have been doing for 2 years?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    edited November 2018
    As May's deal is getting supported by Leadsom - and Norway is reportedly being supported by Gove - can we assume that the initial 5 Cabinet Refuseniks didn't actually come up with the changes they wanted to put to the EU to make the difference?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dr_spyn said:

    A future PM...Telegraph claims that others might go this weekend,

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/30/tory-minister-sam-gyimah-resigns-protest-theresa-mays-withdrawal/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

    It might shift a few copies, but will they have the balls to follow him out of the door?

    I hope not. He was an empty suit at uni
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Did I read that we can serve notice and get out of a Norway deal? I'm thinking the price will be that we can't! (And a huge annual sum...)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Even on Christmas Day :o ?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Well, what would he know about the EU and relationships with the EU, he's just bluffing.

    We had better bloody hope so.
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Are these normal times and why on earth would Corbyn do that before the meaningful vote. He is not doing that well in the polls and playing politics in this situation would not go down well
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sam Gyimah, the universities and science minister, has resigned in protest at the Government’s “naive” Brexit plan, saying that any deal we strike with Brussels will be “EU first”

    Er, hold on, 'any deal'? Ok, seriously, why would he not have resigned well before now then if he thinks any deal would be unacceptable?

    Seems like in his comments he's doing it so we can Remain. Which is a point of view one can hold, but given his comments that any deal would in essence be unacceptable I don't see why the latest comments on Gallileo were the tipping point for him.

    He was on Question Time not that long ago defending Mrs May and Brexit... You do have to wonder about most of our politicians don't you? ;)
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sam Gyimah, the universities and science minister, has resigned in protest at the Government’s “naive” Brexit plan, saying that any deal we strike with Brussels will be “EU first”

    Er, hold on, 'any deal'? Ok, seriously, why would he not have resigned well before now then if he thinks any deal would be unacceptable?

    Seems like in his comments he's doing it so we can Remain. Which is a point of view one can hold, but given his comments that any deal would in essence be unacceptable I don't see why the latest comments on Gallileo were the tipping point for him.

    He was on Question Time not that long ago defending Mrs May and Brexit... You do have to wonder about most of our politicians don't you? ;)
    What a plonker.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Well, what would he know about the EU and relationships with the EU, he's just bluffing.

    We had better bloody hope so.
    We could go with the Norway fillet after the WA, so long as the particular flavour of Norway fillet satisfies the backstop (Customs union sauce I guess). But we could always do that after the WA anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Are these normal times and why on earth would Corbyn do that before the meaningful vote. He is not doing that well in the polls and playing politics in this situation would not go down well
    When the government loses the vote on its most critical policy, which surprisingly many public might still think will not happen, and has a high chance of descending into chaotic bloodletting, it might not go down as poorly as you think. Yes, it would be a distraction from finding a resolution to all this mess, but on the other hand the government really does have a high chance of being completely functionless at that moment. Why shouldn't he try it? Oh no, things might get difficult?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Remainers making their play. The Brexit endgame approacheth, and you called it all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    We'd be giving up our voice & vote (MEPs) and Veto (Since we obviously aren't going to remain in the EU) under any sort of Brexit.

    The headline makes him look thick as mince quite honestly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:
    Well that is pretty silly since Labour are still officially for Brexit as well, but I don't doubt that is what people think.
  • kle4 said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Are these normal times and why on earth would Corbyn do that before the meaningful vote. He is not doing that well in the polls and playing politics in this situation would not go down well
    When the government loses the vote on its most critical policy, which surprisingly many public might still think will not happen, and has a high chance of descending into chaotic bloodletting, it might not go down as poorly as you think. Yes, it would be a distraction from finding a resolution to all this mess, but on the other hand the government really does have a high chance of being completely functionless at that moment. Why shouldn't he try it? Oh no, things might get difficult?
    At that time I expect him to.

    But now before the debate and vote as some suggested would be an act of utter self harm
  • Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Ready Brexit, the best cereal in the world :)
  • Ffs....

    BOB
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Scott_P said:
    Cripes did he only just notice the Tories are quite a eurosceptic party right now. Has he been to many meetings of his constituency association ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:
    What was he doing at a National Socialism event?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Ready Brexit, the best cereal in the world :)
    If only we had a bloody Ready Brexit!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Scott_P said:
    What was he doing at a National Socialism event?
    He was present but not involved?
  • Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Ready Brexit, the best cereal in the world :)
    If only we had a bloody Ready Brexit!!
    Fudge flavour :)
  • Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Ready Brexit, the best cereal in the world :)
    If only we had a bloody Ready Brexit!!
    The ERG are predictable but the number of remainers now joining them to take down the deal from opposite spectrums is the politics of the insane.

    BINO or remain are increasing by the minute but what happens to the party or politics is anyone's guess
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Scott_P said:
    What was he doing at a National Socialism event?
    Given what he says in that interview , he was probably unaware of their policies .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Good to see that the Brexit Advent calendar of ministerial resignations has started.

    Who will it be in the Sunday papers?

    Night all...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Do the cabinet wonders think they can just rock up to Brussels "I'd like the Norway fillet please".

    2/3 of Parliament does, why wouldn't half the Cabinet?
    Tusk went through the menu today.

    "No deal soup", "Deal bisque", "Remain with mash and gravy". I didn't hear him mention "Norway fillet".
    Ready Brexit, the best cereal in the world :)
    Thin gruel...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    GIN1138 said:

    Certainly no time for faffing about with "this and that" deal or trying to get a second referendum together.

    As I've been saying, basically by January times up so if nothing is in place by then we leave with No Deal.
    And we then face the worst recession since the 1930s and the potential breakup of the UK, May's Deal is the only sane Brexit on the cards, the alternative a very divisive EUref2. Gyimah and others should stop attention seeking and focus on getting the best Deal for the UK
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Certainly no time for faffing about with "this and that" deal or trying to get a second referendum together.

    As I've been saying, basically by January times up so if nothing is in place by then we leave with No Deal.
    And we then face the worst recession since the 1930s and the potential breakup of the UK, May's Deal is the only sane Brexit on the cards, the alternative a very divisive EUref2. Gyimah and others should stop attention seeking and focus on getting the best Deal for the UK
    Well that ship has sailed. It's over. Nothing but different flavours of chaos now.

    Good night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    How is that a secret. That has been knowledge for some time
    Which won't get through either as Labour oppose it as do the ERG as it requires free movement
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Very clear and as straightforward as can be explanation of what May's "deal" is and isn't. Recommended reading

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1068596197873598464

    Thanks. I found that really helpful.

    As a result of reading it, though, I am finding it harder to see why majority of MPs are not supporting May's deal tbh.
    Because they're all a bunch of grandstanding wazzocks that can't wait to show their peacock manes off to the Daily Brexitgraph.
    Questions:
    Even without the backstop, would the single Irish animal health zone place some restriction on the possibility of reaching a full, UK wide, UK-US trade deal?

    With the 'technological border' back on the FFA, wouldn't such a fully delivered border, as the Brexiteers have promised they can do (let's set aside practical doubts, they have said they can) plus Canada still be a perfectly valid configuration to exit from the backstop? The FFA envisages a different trade relationship, but is non binding so does not exclude the trade talks going in a different direction under a new leader.

    @Williamglenn: I held off this theory for a couple of weeks after your comments, but the re-appearance of the technology border on the FFA surely mean that, IF Boris can deliver fully on all he has proposed, an independent panel could readily lift the Backstop.

    Note my view is Boris can't deliver, and permanent backstop would be a real possible if we followed this route. But, I would blame the Brexiteers' lies for this, and not May's holding them good to their promises.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    10,000 sample
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Cripes did he only just notice the Tories are quite a eurosceptic party right now. Has he been to many meetings of his constituency association ?
    I know it feels like an eon ago, but but before the referendum the Tories and Labour were both more mixed than they are now. (Anyone remember David Cameron?) Their votership became much more polarised afterwards. Under May the Tories have indeed become the Brexit Party, and the party's fortunes are inextricably linked to it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Certainly no time for faffing about with "this and that" deal or trying to get a second referendum together.

    As I've been saying, basically by January times up so if nothing is in place by then we leave with No Deal.
    And we then face the worst recession since the 1930s and the potential breakup of the UK, May's Deal is the only sane Brexit on the cards, the alternative a very divisive EUref2. Gyimah and others should stop attention seeking and focus on getting the best Deal for the UK
    Well that ship has sailed. It's over. Nothing but different flavours of chaos now.

    Good night all.
    Nothing is ever over until the final votes, there will be a big protest vote in the first vote but if that is defeated a second vote should concentrate minds of the consequences if the Deal is rejected again
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    England & Wales only. Remain lead will be a bit bigger when Scotland & NI are added in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    It’s England and Wales only.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    It’s England and Wales only.
    I bet the trend would still be the same though: Remain DOWN - Leave UP :D
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    We'd be giving up our voice & vote (MEPs) and Veto (Since we obviously aren't going to remain in the EU) under any sort of Brexit.

    The headline makes him look thick as mince quite honestly.
    Alliteration plus rule of three. I suspect he’s done a bit of speech coaching / nlp.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    It’s England and Wales only.
    In which case that is a dire Leave score
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018
    FPT

    Notch said:

    Notch said:

    TM has a max of 21 days to return to parliament with a response duing which time the government cannot be vnoc as long as it complies with the speakers requests

    Why do you say the government cannot get VONCed during that time? The EUWA doesn't repeal any part of the FTPA. The EUWA doesn't say it has to be the government at the time the motion is defeated that makes the statement within 21 days.

    Those 21 days are solar days.

    Some of the other stipulations in the Act use Commons sitting days or Lords sitting days (terms defined in s13(16)), but this one doesn't. So that will be by 1 January then.
    It is parliamentary procedure and as long as the government follows the Speakers advice it will not happen. Read the roadmap that lays out the process
    I haven't heard of a parliamentary procedure that mandates the Speaker to refuse to allow the opposition to table a motion of no confidence for 3 weeks so long as the Government follows his advice. To which document are you referring when you say "roadmap"?

    Nick provided it down thread.

    It is the procedure in this case
    Thanks. I've read it now - in a tweet from a Commons department. It doesn't say anything about VONCs, and if it said what you thought it did it would be wrong. Just because the Government have 21 statutory days to do something doesn't mean they can't be VONCed during that time.

    Theresa May can also rise to her feet as soon as the Deal gets voted down (or indeed before it is tabled) and table a motion for a general election if she wishes. She won't be in breach of the EUWA if she does so.

    For those who enjoy thinking about possibilities for future drama:

    * the Commons is due to rise on 20 Dec (11 Dec +9 days) and return on 7 January (+27 days)

    So if the Deal is voted down and the Government wish to lay their statement before the Commons between 10 and 21 days later, the Speaker will need to recall the Commons for them to do it. Obviously in those circumstances he would.

    But if the Opposition want the Commons to be recalled so that they can VONC the Government, then parliamentary procedure says "So what?" The rule is that the Speaker may recall the Commons when requested to by the Government, and if he isn't requested by the Government he doesn't have the authority!

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    It’s England and Wales only.
    In which case that is a dire Leave score
    But the direction of travel is still towards Leave....
  • Pulpstar said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Even on Christmas Day :o ?!
    Nick is perhaps not quite clear enough. A VoNC can be called at any time when Parliament is sitting. The motion has to be made on the floor of the House so if the House is in recess then there can be no motion and hence no VoNC.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    I've just had a thought.

    Jeremy Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister. He therefore needs the government to lose a VoNC.

    That will only happen, if we're being realistic, if the DUP desert the Conservative Party.

    The only circumstances that would happen are if Mrs May's Deal passes the first stage in the House of Commons. At this point, bringing down the Government becomes the DUP's only way to prevent its passage.

    So, if you're Jeremy Corbyn, then getting a fair number of your MPs to abstain could potentially destabilise the government. And if it doesn't work, and the Deal is defeated, you will at least have really laid Tory divisions bare - much more so than if its a massive defeat, when it's just May's failure.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Pulpstar said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Even on Christmas Day :o ?!
    Nick is perhaps not quite clear enough. A VoNC can be called at any time when Parliament is sitting. The motion has to be made on the floor of the House so if the House is in recess then there can be no motion and hence no VoNC.
    True!

    RCS's plan has been suggested here before, but it requires a level of devious cunning which, or good or ill, Jeremy doesn't have.

    A more likely proposition to my mind is that the DUP get a better offer. Republican though Labour's leadership is, they don't actually plan to do anything to bring Irish union about. If they put that in writing and promise absolutely no change in Ulster's status and no separate customs area, I can see the DUP thinking that they've heard worse. They are, after all, the party who formed a government with Sinn Fein.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Labour still ahead with Survation by the way, though down 2. Is Opinium still due?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Pulpstar said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom

    VONC can be tabled at any time and normally take precedence

    Even on Christmas Day :o ?!
    Nick is perhaps not quite clear enough. A VoNC can be called at any time when Parliament is sitting. The motion has to be made on the floor of the House so if the House is in recess then there can be no motion and hence no VoNC.
    Let's just recess then until March 30th.....
  • Oh Dear. And the Galileo fiasco as well.

    Theresa May still needs to resign and she still needs to resign immediately.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    rcs1000 said:

    I've just had a thought.

    Jeremy Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister. He therefore needs the government to lose a VoNC.

    That will only happen, if we're being realistic, if the DUP desert the Conservative Party.

    The only circumstances that would happen are if Mrs May's Deal passes the first stage in the House of Commons. At this point, bringing down the Government becomes the DUP's only way to prevent its passage.

    So, if you're Jeremy Corbyn, then getting a fair number of your MPs to abstain could potentially destabilise the government. And if it doesn't work, and the Deal is defeated, you will at least have really laid Tory divisions bare - much more so than if its a massive defeat, when it's just May's failure.

    I half seriously thought that was Labour's plan to start with, the problem is the deal is too unpopular with the Tories that there is no way for Labour to get enough support for it or abstainers to see it through, without it being obviously a political ploy playing chicken with Brexit.

    Oh Dear. And the Galileo fiasco as well.

    Theresa May still needs to resign and she still needs to resign immediately.

    She doesn't have to do anything. If her party want her gone they need to actually do it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    It’s England and Wales only.
    In which case that is a dire Leave score
    But the direction of travel is still towards Leave....
    It is. But it is still dire.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rcs1000 said:

    I've just had a thought.

    Jeremy Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister. He therefore needs the government to lose a VoNC.

    That will only happen, if we're being realistic, if the DUP desert the Conservative Party.

    The only circumstances that would happen are if Mrs May's Deal passes the first stage in the House of Commons. At this point, bringing down the Government becomes the DUP's only way to prevent its passage.

    So, if you're Jeremy Corbyn, then getting a fair number of your MPs to abstain could potentially destabilise the government. And if it doesn't work, and the Deal is defeated, you will at least have really laid Tory divisions bare - much more so than if its a massive defeat, when it's just May's failure.

    Yes but . Losing the single most important piece of legislation of the last 70 years by a record margin also destabilises the government and keeps the opposition together .
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Notch said:

    FPT

    Notch said:

    Notch said:

    TM has a max of 21 days to return to parliament with a response duing which time the government cannot be vnoc as long as it complies with the speakers requests

    Why do you say the government cannot get VONCed during that time? The EUWA doesn't repeal any part of the FTPA. The EUWA doesn't say it has to be the government at the time the motion is defeated that makes the statement within 21 days.

    Those 21 days are solar days.

    Some of the other stipulations in the Act use Commons sitting days or Lords sitting days (terms defined in s13(16)), but this one doesn't. So that will be by 1 January then.
    It is parliamentary procedure and as long as the government follows the Speakers advice it will not happen. Read the roadmap that lays out the process
    I haven't heard of a parliamentary procedure that mandates the Speaker to refuse to allow the opposition to table a motion of no confidence for 3 weeks so long as the Government follows his advice. To which document are you referring when you say "roadmap"?

    Nick provided it down thread.

    It is the procedure in this case
    Thanks. I've read it now - in a tweet from a Commons department. It doesn't say anything about VONCs, and if it said what you thought it did it would be wrong. Just because the Government have 21 statutory days to do something doesn't mean they can't be VONCed during that time.

    Theresa May can also rise to her feet as soon as the Deal gets voted down (or indeed before it is tabled) and table a motion for a general election if she wishes. She won't be in breach of the EUWA if she does so.

    For those who enjoy thinking about possibilities for future drama:

    * the Commons is due to rise on 20 Dec (11 Dec +9 days) and return on 7 January (+27 days)

    So if the Deal is voted down and the Government wish to lay their statement before the Commons between 10 and 21 days later, the Speaker will need to recall the Commons for them to do it. Obviously in those circumstances he would.

    But if the Opposition want the Commons to be recalled so that they can VONC the Government, then parliamentary procedure says "So what?" The rule is that the Speaker may recall the Commons when requested to by the Government, and if he isn't requested by the Government he doesn't have the authority!

    A VONC can only be tabled whilst Parliament is sitting!
  • Sam Gyimah
    Justine Greening

    Both talk a lot about 'young people'

    Do I detect a future scenario cabinet?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Sam Gyimah
    Justine Greening

    Both talk a lot about 'young people'

    Do I detect a future scenario cabinet?

    A cabinet of two? HM taking on more duties, I assume? :p
  • This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1068645983163203585
  • RobD said:

    Sam Gyimah
    Justine Greening

    Both talk a lot about 'young people'

    Do I detect a future scenario cabinet?

    A cabinet of two? HM taking on more duties, I assume? :p
    Not the worst idea I have heard...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    RIP Bush Sr.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    RobD said:

    RIP Bush Sr.

    RIP indeed.

    Whatever you think of his politics, there can be little doubt that he loved his country, and served it with distinction.

    http://ww2awartobewon.com/wwii-articles/george-bush-shot-down-rescue/

    He was also exceptionally lucky:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chichijima_incident
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    RobD said:

    RIP Bush Sr.

    RIP indeed.

    Whatever you think of his politics, there can be little doubt that he loved his country, and served it with distinction.

    http://ww2awartobewon.com/wwii-articles/george-bush-shot-down-rescue/

    He was also exceptionally lucky:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chichijima_incident
    They showed footage of him being hauled out of the Pacific. He did very well to evade the Japanese and the sharks.

    By the way, have you seen this story:

    https://tinyurl.com/ydgf93fk

    The chairman of HS2 is facing the sack less than five months after his appointment because of fears that costs are spiralling out of control.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    RobD said:

    RIP Bush Sr.

    RIP indeed.

    Whatever you think of his politics, there can be little doubt that he loved his country, and served it with distinction.

    http://ww2awartobewon.com/wwii-articles/george-bush-shot-down-rescue/

    He was also exceptionally lucky:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chichijima_incident
    50+ missions in the South Pacific in a deathtrap like the Avenger = lucky AND good.

    No roses bloom on a seaman's grave. RIP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just had a thought.

    Jeremy Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister. He therefore needs the government to lose a VoNC.

    That will only happen, if we're being realistic, if the DUP desert the Conservative Party.

    The only circumstances that would happen are if Mrs May's Deal passes the first stage in the House of Commons. At this point, bringing down the Government becomes the DUP's only way to prevent its passage.

    So, if you're Jeremy Corbyn, then getting a fair number of your MPs to abstain could potentially destabilise the government. And if it doesn't work, and the Deal is defeated, you will at least have really laid Tory divisions bare - much more so than if its a massive defeat, when it's just May's failure.

    Yes but . Losing the single most important piece of legislation of the last 70 years by a record margin also destabilises the government and keeps the opposition together .
    I'd think a lot less of an MP who absained on such a measure. Surely an MP, of all people, cannot appear to be unable to make up their mind on this question.

    There was, IIRC, little or no talk of an election around Christmas 1973, yet by very early March 1974 it was all done and dusted and a new Government was in place.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Looks like Melania will have to do funeral duty again.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    RIP Bush Sr.

    RIP indeed.

    Whatever you think of his politics, there can be little doubt that he loved his country, and served it with distinction.

    http://ww2awartobewon.com/wwii-articles/george-bush-shot-down-rescue/

    He was also exceptionally lucky:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chichijima_incident
    They showed footage of him being hauled out of the Pacific. He did very well to evade the Japanese and the sharks.

    By the way, have you seen this story:

    https://tinyurl.com/ydgf93fk

    The chairman of HS2 is facing the sack less than five months after his appointment because of fears that costs are spiralling out of control.
    Yes, although it'd be good to know how much it is about HS2, and how much it is about Crossrail's problems and the way they've been handled.

    Embarrassing though, as the government / DfT should have had an inkling that not all was well with Crossrail when they appointed him.
  • Did all those allegations of President Bush being a serial groper ever get resolved?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    Lol @ "definitely". Yes, it was a larger poll, but there is still MoE and the difference between two successive polls doubly so.

    The country remains divided and a clear opinion is unlikely to appear until either the economy has collapsed or our streets are covered in unicorn crap, depending on how Brexit goes. Unless the government collapses meantime, of course.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Did all those allegations of President Bush being a serial groper ever get resolved?

    I think it was established that he was an occasional 'bottom-patter'.

    A small blemish on a life of service to his country, whatever one thinks of his politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
    If Corbyn goes, he will have to buy a decent coat...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Did all those allegations of President Bush being a serial groper ever get resolved?

    I think it was established that he was an occasional 'bottom-patter'.

    A small blemish on a life of service to his country, whatever one thinks of his politics.
    He was balls deep in Iran Contra. He handed out pardons like candy on the issue.

    He continued the GOP persecution complex that somehow Nixon was hard done by and his, and his administrations, nagging sense of Saddam getting one over on him lead to his son's botched Iraq adventure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
    Opportuunity for Vince to stage a coup?

    Incidentally, did anyone see last weeks QT? I hear Layla Moran was very good on it; is it worth having a look? I, like many others here I gather, have ceased to bother with it as a regular watch.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I've never heard of Sam Gyimah but anyone who can quit his job with a soundbite as catchy as "We've lost our veto and our vote and gone from rule makers to rule takers" is a politician to watch.

    ...and if he doesn't make it in politics I can think of several agencies who could do with a copywriter.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
    If Corbyn goes, he will have to buy a decent coat...
    I hear he’s available for wreath laying at reasonable prices.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Hmm, polls definitely swinging toward leave right now.
    Lol @ "definitely". Yes, it was a larger poll, but there is still MoE and the difference between two successive polls doubly so.

    The country remains divided and a clear opinion is unlikely to appear until either the economy has collapsed or our streets are covered in unicorn crap, depending on how Brexit goes. Unless the government collapses meantime, of course.
    It is also England and Wales, so it imples that there is a slim majority for Remain in all 4 home nations. Leavers have truly failed to convince on the wisdom of Leave, independent of the style of Brexit.

    RIP Bush Snr. How far the Republicans have fallen since.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
    If Corbyn goes, he will have to buy a decent coat...
    I hear he’s available for wreath laying at reasonable prices.
    Surely not another Labour leader destined to meet more dead world leaders than live ones?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Alistair said:

    Did all those allegations of President Bush being a serial groper ever get resolved?

    I think it was established that he was an occasional 'bottom-patter'.

    A small blemish on a life of service to his country, whatever one thinks of his politics.
    He was balls deep in Iran Contra. He handed out pardons like candy on the issue.

    He continued the GOP persecution complex that somehow Nixon was hard done by and his, and his administrations, nagging sense of Saddam getting one over on him lead to his son's botched Iraq adventure.
    IME Nixon does get a bad press, with people using his period in office to deflect blame from presidents before and after. He certainly wasn't as bad as JFK, for instance.

    BTW, I'm not saying he was good; just not as bad as made out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
    Opportuunity for Vince to stage a coup?

    Incidentally, did anyone see last weeks QT? I hear Layla Moran was very good on it; is it worth having a look? I, like many others here I gather, have ceased to bother with it as a regular watch.
    She generally did well, and does have a rather refreshing charm. She appears to be a normal person rather than party hack. A bit naive at times, but I would vote for her.
  • FF43 said:

    Very clear and as straightforward as can be explanation of what May's "deal" is and isn't. Recommended reading

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1068596197873598464

    Thanks. I found that really helpful.

    As a result of reading it, though, I am finding it harder to see why majority of MPs are not supporting May's deal tbh.
    They'd prefer to grandstand against what they think it says, rather than read it and vote on it based on what it actually says .
  • This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:

    I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Alistair said:

    Did all those allegations of President Bush being a serial groper ever get resolved?

    I think it was established that he was an occasional 'bottom-patter'.

    A small blemish on a life of service to his country, whatever one thinks of his politics.
    He was balls deep in Iran Contra. He handed out pardons like candy on the issue.

    He continued the GOP persecution complex that somehow Nixon was hard done by and his, and his administrations, nagging sense of Saddam getting one over on him lead to his son's botched Iraq adventure.
    Th Iran Contra scandal was quite something. A government secretetly breaking its own arms embargo so as to raise funds for an endea vor specifically banned by Congress.

    But it was "read my lips, no new taxes" that made him that unusual thing, a single term POTUS.
  • Roger said:

    I've never heard of Sam Gyimah but anyone who can quit his job with a soundbite as catchy as "We've lost our veto and our vote and gone from rule makers to rule takers" is a politician to watch.

    ...and if he doesn't make it in politics I can think of several agencies who could do with a copywriter.


    He's my MP. Not especially popular with the voters who see him as a ruthless careerist with zero interest in the local area.

    This is an odd development that smacks of manoeuvres really. I wonder if he's on some sort of promise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    This could be the final depth charge to May's deal:

    I'm very angry over his behaviour. He's just joined the Sarah Wollaston category of turncoat, in my opinion.
    Revolutions usually end with revolutionaries on the guillotine. We are entering that phase of Brexit when the tumbrils start to roll.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Jonathan said:

    Off course, Magz showed up too.

    Had she lost her bearings by then? The Accidental Mourner....

    (Many years back, a friend's mum was passing a church where a funeral was taking place. Saddened that there were hardly any mourners, she went in the church and sat at the back "to make up the numbers a bit".

    After the service, she was approached by a couple of Special Branch - and quizzed as to how she knew the deceased....)

  • Roger said:

    I've never heard of Sam Gyimah but anyone who can quit his job with a soundbite as catchy as "We've lost our veto and our vote and gone from rule makers to rule takers" is a politician to watch.

    ...and if he doesn't make it in politics I can think of several agencies who could do with a copywriter.


    He's my MP. Not especially popular with the voters who see him as a ruthless careerist with zero interest in the local area.

    This is an odd development that smacks of manoeuvres really. I wonder if he's on some sort of promise.
    Yes, very hard to respect such deceitful and hitherto equivocal behaviour, before plunging in a dirty knife at the 11th hour.

    He will please neither side.
  • So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:

    1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.

    2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.

    What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.

    Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.

    Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.

    This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    I've never heard of Sam Gyimah but anyone who can quit his job with a soundbite as catchy as "We've lost our veto and our vote and gone from rule makers to rule takers" is a politician to watch.

    ...and if he doesn't make it in politics I can think of several agencies who could do with a copywriter.


    He's my MP. Not especially popular with the voters who see him as a ruthless careerist with zero interest in the local area.

    This is an odd development that smacks of manoeuvres really. I wonder if he's on some sort of promise.
    As I thought..... one to watch particularly as I believe that when all the dust settles the ex Remainers -which I believe he is-will be in the ascendency
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The timing of the funeral could have political implications back home, with May being absent at a key moment.

    Send Prince Charles? Or else the mice will play......
    For Reagan both Chaz and Tone went. Off course, Magz showed up too. Tezza and Jezza H will have to go.
    If Corbyn goes, he will have to buy a decent coat...
    A flying jacket. That would be a nice mark of respect.

    With hat. And goggles.

    *titters to self at the thought....*
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    So a couple of things are clear with Gyimah’s resignation:

    1. As someone said above, Remainers are making their play for a second referendum and I bet Labour will (eventually) join them in supporting one.

    2. There may well be a majority in the House for a second ref at that stage.

    What I don’t understand is how the Remain people hope to actually engineer that referendum - because it requires primary legislation and (in all likelihood) an extension to article 50, which the government would need to request from the EU.

    Therefore, if you want a second vote you’d need to get the government to concede the principle of holding one, or else change the government. Changing the government’s mind seems all but impossible - surely Tory MPs would kick out Theresa May the minute she even suggested a second referendum, and I suspect she’d rather resign that go down that route anyway. And obviously nobody would win the Tory leadership on a second referendum platform, so as soon as Theresa is kicked out/resigns then Tory members surely just replace her with a Brexiteer.

    Changing the government requires Tory Remainers to vote down their own government in a VNOC (which I think is unlikely) and precipitates a general election which could take us past 29th March anyway.

    This is the crux of it really - No Deal is the default position and was approved by our esteemed Parliamentarians not six months ago. Against this backdrop, I don’t think that MPs really have a choice - if they want to avoid no deal I think they *have* to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. The government can simply close off all other courses of action, including a second vote, even if those alternative courses of action command a majority in the House.

    Theresa is clearly canvassing the people rather than MPs, with the fairly clear implication that the people will be the ones who get to decide on Brexit, if parliament cannot.

    Parliament sets the rules, and is free to change them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited December 2018
    Good morning, everyone.

    There's clearly a lot of MPs who would like said referendum. But the mechanics of it still look tricky. Ignoring the significant matter of question and options, how would it get through the Commons?

    I think May could trigger such a vote but the time frame to do so would be small. Her successor as Conservative leader would be unlikely to do so. The mooted Government of National Unity perhaps led by a Ken Clarke type figure could do so, and have the numbers, but the shift and break down in party allegiances would be immense.

    Edited extra bit: plan on putting my season review up today, incidentally.
This discussion has been closed.