Evening Standard's leader strongly indicating that Gove has plans to throw May under a bus and the whole cabinet is going to pivot to EEA/EFTA in the aftermath of the botched deal being ceremonially disembowelled by Parliament.
Makes more sense than thinking the Commons magically changes its opinion.
Since the people have gotten May into this mess in the first place are now the ones being tasked with getting her out of it, is it possible by "crack team" she means they are literally on crack?
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
I don’t believe Norway in the CU.
Yes sorry, was thinking single market.
No matter what the blithering, no matter the seemingly inability to resolve the Irish border. Every block in the path will wash away under a Norway option. It’s infinitely better than what’s proposed. It resolves the WA and the future trading agreement. A member of EFTA and the associated EEA makes us well within the orbit of the EU and gives us the freeedom to make trade agreements while still in the single market. It’s such an obvious sodding win win both parliament and the Eu will grab the gvts arms off to get it.
It al so means Brexit is put to bed. Done, finished with. Goal achieved. Let’s move the f*** on to more important things like the AV thread.
I have not seen the debate but looks like she has said Norway is not recognising the vote.
I think that is unwise as I do believe, as I said this morning, that would pass the HOC and avoid the need for a dreadfully divisive, angry and full of hate referendum. Those wanting one need to be careful for what they wish for. It does not even guarantee a different result
Norway does not end FoM.
Do you think allowing continued FoM recognises the vote?
Yes. Couch it with the capacity to put emergency brakes in immigrations and an intention to start enforcing the powers that we have but don’t use to to keep the chancers out.
Sensibly done, you could essentially require every EU immigrant to purchase NHS medical insurance.
More important than the number is that the people opposed are, by and large, saying it is for pretty fundamental reasons. That blows away the wishful thinking that these people will change their tune on a second vote, if there even is one.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. Even market chaos is not going to change these minds, since they are very clear just how bad they think the agreement is.
May will not be allowed a second vote. I'd be very surprised if she's allowed much more than time to pop back to Number 10 to get her coat and her pen and say goodbye to the cats.
I think it's already fairly obvious that wheels are in motion for a cross party EEA/EFTA deal. The only roadblock for that is May and the aborted fetus of her deal.
I object to the use of the word 'crack'. Events have shown that May could fall into a rosebed and come out smelling of shit. She couldn't pick a decent five-a-side team.
It was just a misspelling. The correct word is "cack".
The Commons rises for Xmas recess on 20th December and does not return until 7th January.
Please please please can they at least agree what general approach we are taking before they head off. Referendum, GE, Norway, whatever, doesn't matter (I don't include deal, since that will be firmly ditched by then, along with May).
Since the people have gotten May into this mess in the first place are now the ones being tasked with getting her out of it, is it possible by "crack team" she means they are literally on crack?
More important than the number is that the people opposed are, by and large, saying it is for pretty fundamental reasons. That blows away the wishful thinking that these people will change their tune on a second vote, if there even is one.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. Even market chaos is not going to change these minds, since they are very clear just how bad they think the agreement is.
May will not be allowed a second vote. I'd be very surprised if she's allowed much more than time to pop back to Number 10 to get her coat and her pen and say goodbye to the cats.
I'm not so sure on your second paragraph, but I think this is dead on. A second vote is a tremendous waste of time, and given we know for a fact half the Cabinet either don't really back the deal (Gove and co who publicly tried to change it, so whatever they might claim do not really back it, plus some of the others who have leaked how they are not happy) if she doesn't quiet five minutes after the vote she will be removed. There is some point to voting on her deal, just to confirm it is dead for sure, but no point to doing it again. 60-80 MPs changing their tune on this? Give me a break.
More important than the number is that the people opposed are, by and large, saying it is for pretty fundamental reasons. That blows away the wishful thinking that these people will change their tune on a second vote, if there even is one.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. Even market chaos is not going to change these minds, since they are very clear just how bad they think the agreement is.
May will not be allowed a second vote. I'd be very surprised if she's allowed much more than time to pop back to Number 10 to get her coat and her pen and say goodbye to the cats.
I think it's already fairly obvious that wheels are in motion for a cross party EEA/EFTA deal. The only roadblock for that is May and the aborted fetus of her deal.
Tory MPs will need to reflect on whether they prefer May's deal or Norway plus. That may well end up being the real choice rather than fantastical notions of a second referendum or no deal
Getting 90 or so MPs to change their mind on Europe is .....nah, just forget it. Not going to happen.
May is toast. Before Christmas.
And then what and more important who can replace her and get consensus
I don't know. But getting the letters in now at least clears the air and if she loses, her succssor (and the new Chancellor) will have two extra weeks to prepare for No Deal, rather than waiting or the vote and then acting.
Failure to prepare for the contingency of a No Deal Brexit from July 2016 is the most egregious failure of government I can ever remember.
And how do you cope with an election for leader - remember my wife and I will not accept a coronation unless it was a unity candidate
With respect, though BigG. One of the features of a coronation is that, by definition, you don't get a say.
Since the people have gotten May into this mess in the first place are now the ones being tasked with getting her out of it, is it possible by "crack team" she means they are literally on crack?
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
Evening Standard's leader strongly indicating that Gove has plans to throw May under a bus and the whole cabinet is going to pivot to EEA/EFTA in the aftermath of the botched deal being ceremonially disembowelled by Parliament.
Makes more sense than thinking the Commons magically changes its opinion.
Well the only alternative the EU might consider are off the shelf ones, so it is plausible..
Getting 90 or so MPs to change their mind on Europe is .....nah, just forget it. Not going to happen.
May is toast. Before Christmas.
And then what and more important who can replace her and get consensus
I don't know. But getting the letters in now at least clears the air and if she loses, her succssor (and the new Chancellor) will have two extra weeks to prepare for No Deal, rather than waiting or the vote and then acting.
Failure to prepare for the contingency of a No Deal Brexit from July 2016 is the most egregious failure of government I can ever remember.
And how do you cope with an election for leader - remember my wife and I will not accept a coronation unless it was a unity candidate
With respect, though BigG. One of the features of a coronation is that, by definition, you don't get a say.
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
And so was/is Remain. The question might as easily have been; at what point will you want to leave the EU with a menu of possible scenarios including EU army, Turkey joining, forced Euro membership.... The idea that uncertainty only lies on the Leave side of the equation is simply nonsense.
TM must know that and needs to come to terms with tacking to Norway or resign
That should have happened after the initial Chequers was so panned by the EU, she should have been replaced and someone else at least attempt another option.
We've wasted, well, 2 years, but certainly the last half year. All that has happened is Remain enthusiasts have been given more and more reason to not accept any Brexit compromise.
More important than the number is that the people opposed are, by and large, saying it is for pretty fundamental reasons. That blows away the wishful thinking that these people will change their tune on a second vote, if there even is one.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. Even market chaos is not going to change these minds, since they are very clear just how bad they think the agreement is.
May will not be allowed a second vote. I'd be very surprised if she's allowed much more than time to pop back to Number 10 to get her coat and her pen and say goodbye to the cats.
I think it's already fairly obvious that wheels are in motion for a cross party EEA/EFTA deal. The only roadblock for that is May and the aborted fetus of her deal.
Tory MPs will need to reflect on whether they prefer May's deal or Norway plus. That may well end up being the real choice rather than fantastical notions of a second referendum or no deal
I think that's a period of reflection that will take around 7 milliseconds.
Hmm.. is it just me who thinks the EEA/EFTA or Norway pivots are being briefed by the likes of Gove as part of a collective cabinet strategy to position the choice as: Deal or even softer Brexit (possibly with Corbyn as PM), ERG take your pick?
Getting 90 or so MPs to change their mind on Europe is .....nah, just forget it. Not going to happen.
May is toast. Before Christmas.
And then what and more important who can replace her and get consensus
I don't know. But getting the letters in now at least clears the air and if she loses, her succssor (and the new Chancellor) will have two extra weeks to prepare for No Deal, rather than waiting or the vote and then acting.
Failure to prepare for the contingency of a No Deal Brexit from July 2016 is the most egregious failure of government I can ever remember.
And how do you cope with an election for leader - remember my wife and I will not accept a coronation unless it was a unity candidate
With respect, though BigG. One of the features of a coronation is that, by definition, you don't get a say.
TM must know that and needs to come to terms with tacking to Norway or resign
That should have happened after the initial Chequers was so panned by the EU, she should have been replaced and someone else at least attempt another option.
We've wasted, well, 2 years, but certainly the last half year. All that has happened is Remain enthusiasts have been given more and more reason to not accept any Brexit compromise.
But it would not have brought it to a head as this has
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
And so was/is Remain. The question might as easily have been; at what point will you want to leave the EU with a menu of possible scenarios including EU army, Turkey joining, forced Euro membership.... The idea that uncertainty only lies on the Leave side of the equation is simply nonsense.
I agree there was uncertainty in the remain option was well, I was just pointing out that the suggested scenario of offering leave options was never a plausible one. Both sides were able to point out the uncertainties in existence on the other side because of the nature of the question, the moaning about the options not being listed is one of the more preposterous arguments in this whole debate.
TM must know that and needs to come to terms with tacking to Norway or resign
That should have happened after the initial Chequers was so panned by the EU, she should have been replaced and someone else at least attempt another option.
We've wasted, well, 2 years, but certainly the last half year. All that has happened is Remain enthusiasts have been given more and more reason to not accept any Brexit compromise.
But it would not bave brought it to a head as this has
Time would have done that eventually as a deal (or acceptance of no deal) was necessary around this point. This whole approach was pointless from the moment the EU rejected Chequers, meaning more concessions to the EU would be needed, which would ruin any chance of convincing the many Tory MPs against Chequers to change their minds.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
And so was/is Remain. The question might as easily have been; at what point will you want to leave the EU with a menu of possible scenarios including EU army, Turkey joining, forced Euro membership.... The idea that uncertainty only lies on the Leave side of the equation is simply nonsense.
I agree there was uncertainty in the remain option was well, I was just pointing out that the suggested scenario of offering leave options was never a plausible one. Both sides were able to point out the uncertainties in existence on the other side because of the nature of the question, the moaning about the options not being listed is one of the more preposterous arguments in this whole debate.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
Therefore you'd still need the Northern Ireland backstop.
What happens to the meaningful vote on 11th December if Theresa has already faced a VONC in the Tory Party which she's lost?
I suspect if Gove announces the EEA/EFTA pivot, and also announces that Labour and the SNP and the DUP and the Lib Dems have all announced support provisional on May being fired into the sun, there's nothing she can do to stop that torpedo tube being greased.
If May was going to resign on the spot after losing the vote she would have had the vote on Wed 12th - so no PMQs for her (or someone else) to face.
Looks as if she wants the PMQs as opportunity to put forward what she plans to do.
I think the Government will have to give an indication immediately after the lost vote - I seem to recall that was what happened with Maastricht. Besides wouldn't JC call a vote of no confidence in the Government immediately afterwards? Leaving it until the Wednesday simply wouldn't fly in my view.
More important than the number is that the people opposed are, by and large, saying it is for pretty fundamental reasons. That blows away the wishful thinking that these people will change their tune on a second vote, if there even is one.
We need to stop kidding ourselves. Even market chaos is not going to change these minds, since they are very clear just how bad they think the agreement is.
May will not be allowed a second vote. I'd be very surprised if she's allowed much more than time to pop back to Number 10 to get her coat and her pen and say goodbye to the cats.
I'm not so sure on your second paragraph, but I think this is dead on. A second vote is a tremendous waste of time, and given we know for a fact half the Cabinet either don't really back the deal (Gove and co who publicly tried to change it, so whatever they might claim do not really back it, plus some of the others who have leaked how they are not happy) if she doesn't quiet five minutes after the vote she will be removed. There is some point to voting on her deal, just to confirm it is dead for sure, but no point to doing it again. 60-80 MPs changing their tune on this? Give me a break.
Hmm.. is it just me who thinks the EEA/EFTA or Norway pivots are being briefed by the likes of Gove as part of a collective cabinet strategy to position the choice as: Deal or even softer Brexit (possibly with Corbyn as PM), ERG take your pick?
I don't think so. I think Gove has been on a genuine journey. He stood on the No Deal precipice with Boris and gazed into the void. It gazed back.
Ever since then he's been quietly trying to drag us back from the precipice.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
I believe it would have the support of 500 or so mps and the brexit weary country would ignore them
Hmm.. is it just me who thinks the EEA/EFTA or Norway pivots are being briefed by the likes of Gove as part of a collective cabinet strategy to position the choice as: Deal or even softer Brexit (possibly with Corbyn as PM), ERG take your pick?
I don't think so. I think Gove has been on a genuine journey. He stood on the No Deal precipice with Boris and gazed into the void. It gazed back.
Ever since then he's been quietly trying to drag us back from the precipice.
Remember when it comes to Gove you can't trust anything the man says.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
Therefore you'd still need the Northern Ireland backstop.
Nah, we'd just play Secret Santa with Varadkar. He opens his present on Christmas Day and 'ta da', he's got the keys to Stormont and a pocket guide to popular NI idioms.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
Hmm.. is it just me who thinks the EEA/EFTA or Norway pivots are being briefed by the likes of Gove as part of a collective cabinet strategy to position the choice as: Deal or even softer Brexit (possibly with Corbyn as PM), ERG take your pick?
I don't think so. I think Gove has been on a genuine journey. He stood on the No Deal precipice with Boris and gazed into the void. It gazed back.
Ever since then he's been quietly trying to drag us back from the precipice.
Remember when it comes to Gove you can't trust anything the man says.
He's ALWAYS got some plot or scheme on the go...
He's got Sarah Vine waiting at home. He's got to do something to keep himself busy in the office.
What happens to the meaningful vote on 11th December if Theresa has already faced a VONC in the Tory Party which she's lost?
I suspect if Gove announces the EEA/EFTA pivot, and also announces that Labour and the SNP and the DUP and the Lib Dems have all announced support provisional on May being fired into the sun, there's nothing she can do to stop that torpedo tube being greased.
Or TM to proceed on that basis and if she does not then she resigns
Also on EEA I thought Norway had already said it's not happening as it'd turn them from being the largest fish in the poond to a minnow?
TBH if you want to know what the EEA are thinking, just watch what Nick Boles is saying. He's become a conduit for what we need to say and do to join the EEA/EFTA countries
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
I believe it would have the support of 500 or so mps and the brexit weary country would ignore them
One would certainly like to hope so. I, for one, would happily do so. In such a scenario, it would be nice to think those 500 or so MPs might push back, and make a positive case for this being the end point, rather than pandering to the worst instincts for political capital. Not holding my breath.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
If May was going to resign on the spot after losing the vote she would have had the vote on Wed 12th - so no PMQs for her (or someone else) to face.
Looks as if she wants the PMQs as opportunity to put forward what she plans to do.
I think the Government will have to give an indication immediately after the lost vote - I seem to recall that was what happened with Maastricht. Besides wouldn't JC call a vote of no confidence in the Government immediately afterwards? Leaving it until the Wednesday simply wouldn't fly in my view.
The withdrawal act gives TM 21 days to respond. In practice it will be a lot quicker as Starmer expects and no doubt she will have had cabinet meetings and possibly meetings with other leaders and then make an announcement
I very much doubt it will be immediate unless she resigns. However, walking away is not her style
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
I agree with above posts - of course May will have to say something straight away - but that would be the case whenever the vote was.
But that wasn't my point. The point is she is choosing to also have a PMQs the day after - when she didn't have to.
Her resignation PMQs.
The sickening spectacle of Corbyn and Arlene and Boris standing up to pour vast buckets of praise over May for her "tireless diligence" and "civic duty" and definitely no references to her being an incompetent, dishonest and frequently racist mess that has turned everything she touched to guano.
Hmm.. is it just me who thinks the EEA/EFTA or Norway pivots are being briefed by the likes of Gove as part of a collective cabinet strategy to position the choice as: Deal or even softer Brexit (possibly with Corbyn as PM), ERG take your pick?
I don't think so. I think Gove has been on a genuine journey. He stood on the No Deal precipice with Boris and gazed into the void. It gazed back.
Ever since then he's been quietly trying to drag us back from the precipice.
Also on EEA I thought Norway had already said it's not happening as it'd turn them from being the largest fish in the pond to a minnow?
The head of EFTA has said they'd be glad to have the UK back, but I think it has been said that they'd want to be reassured that it was intended to be for the long-term, rather than a stopping off point to another destination.
I agree with above posts - of course May will have to say something straight away - but that would be the case whenever the vote was.
But that wasn't my point. The point is she is choosing to also have a PMQs the day after - when she didn't have to.
Her resignation PMQs.
The sickening spectacle of Corbyn and Arlene and Boris standing up to pour vast buckets of praise over May for her "tireless diligence" and "civic duty" and definitely no references to her being an incompetent, dishonest and frequently racist mess that has turned everything she touched to guano.
In all fairness, Corbyn won't want anyone making rather embarrassing remarks about 'an incompetent, dishonest and frequently racist mess that has turned everything (s)he touched to guano.' It could all too easily be redirected...
I agree with above posts - of course May will have to say something straight away - but that would be the case whenever the vote was.
But that wasn't my point. The point is she is choosing to also have a PMQs the day after - when she didn't have to.
Her resignation PMQs.
The sickening spectacle of Corbyn and Arlene and Boris standing up to pour vast buckets of praise over May for her "tireless diligence" and "civic duty" and definitely no references to her being an incompetent, dishonest and frequently racist mess that has turned everything she touched to guano.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
I agree with above posts - of course May will have to say something straight away - but that would be the case whenever the vote was.
But that wasn't my point. The point is she is choosing to also have a PMQs the day after - when she didn't have to.
Her resignation PMQs.
The sickening spectacle of Corbyn and Arlene and Boris standing up to pour vast buckets of praise over May for her "tireless diligence" and "civic duty" and definitely no references to her being an incompetent, dishonest and frequently racist mess that has turned everything she touched to guano.
Point of order - Arlene is not an mp
I don't somehow see Nigel Dodds mincing his words either.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
And so was/is Remain. The question might as easily have been; at what point will you want to leave the EU with a menu of possible scenarios including EU army, Turkey joining, forced Euro membership.... The idea that uncertainty only lies on the Leave side of the equation is simply nonsense.
Turkey could only join if we, and every other member, voted in favor. So it was entirely in our hands.
Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
With all due respect, that's a terrible reason not to back the deal.
Dislike it for the backstop - although I think that's overrated because the real issue is a political one in Northern Ireland - but not because a substantial minority of our opponents like it.
I'm not saying that's a reason not to back the deal. The backstop is all the reason I need to agree with May's own maxim that "no deal is better than a bad deal". I would vote Nay if I were an MP due to the backstop, but if the backstop could be addressed that would be sufficient for me to vote Aye.
My point was not an argument just an example. When people who were supposed to be against what you're doing suddenly become quite in favour, while those who were in favour turn against - it's quite clear you're not doing what was originally expected.
The way to save this deal is to axe the backstop. That is the only outcome that can command a majority of Parliament. Is anyone brave enough to make Barnier and Varadkar see sense?
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
And so was/is Remain. The question might as easily have been; at what point will you want to leave the EU with a menu of possible scenarios including EU army, Turkey joining, forced Euro membership.... The idea that uncertainty only lies on the Leave side of the equation is simply nonsense.
Turkey could only join if we, and every other member, voted in favor. So it was entirely in our hands.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
The EU Ref should have had the whole range of Leave options set out with voter choices to be made via AV.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
The problem with that is there are clearly more options than could be put on the paper, since even now both Labour and the Tories are offering various bespoke options. Leave or remain was an acceptable question, given remain made the point that leave was full of uncertainty.
And so was/is Remain. The question might as easily have been; at what point will you want to leave the EU with a menu of possible scenarios including EU army, Turkey joining, forced Euro membership.... The idea that uncertainty only lies on the Leave side of the equation is simply nonsense.
Turkey could only join if we, and every other member, voted in favor. So it was entirely in our hands.
You've been infected by a linguistic virus.
We'll have to Yank him out of it before he develops more bad habits...
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Where is the customs border with Norway
The current Plan B is Norway plus a UK-wide customs union.
@SamCoatesTimes 6m6 minutes ago More TRUMP SAYS BREXIT DEAL SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD DEAL FOR THE EU TRUMP SAYS BREXIT AGREEMENT AS IT STANDS MEANS THE UK MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TRADE WITH THE U.S. - Reuters
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Most of the country will not care if Brexit stops - they will simply adjust their cynicism level upwards. Politics is already held in very low regard.
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
@SamCoatesTimes 6m6 minutes ago More TRUMP SAYS BREXIT DEAL SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD DEAL FOR THE EU TRUMP SAYS BREXIT AGREEMENT AS IT STANDS MEANS THE UK MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TRADE WITH THE U.S. - Reuters
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Most of the country will not care if Brexit stops - they will simply adjust their cynicism level upwards. Politics is already held in very low regard.
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
I was referring to the campaign itself and the uncertain nature of the result
@SamCoatesTimes 6m6 minutes ago More TRUMP SAYS BREXIT DEAL SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD DEAL FOR THE EU TRUMP SAYS BREXIT AGREEMENT AS IT STANDS MEANS THE UK MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TRADE WITH THE U.S. - Reuters
Well if Trump is against it that is one boost for May with UK voters
Which the EU won't accept, so it's not saving anything.
We don't know that for certain. The EU and the Irish haven't had to stir into the abyss and decide whether they prefer no deal or giving up on the backstop.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Norway is not in the Customs Union, but is a member of the European Economic Area. They therefore have their own trade deals, but agree to implement all product (and services) standards for goods sold domestically as for the the rest of the EU. They are also a member of the Single Market for Labour.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
TM must know that and needs to come to terms with tacking to Norway or resign
That should have happened after the initial Chequers was so panned by the EU, she should have been replaced and someone else at least attempt another option.
We've wasted, well, 2 years, but certainly the last half year. All that has happened is Remain enthusiasts have been given more and more reason to not accept any Brexit compromise.
Trade deals typically take many years to finalise because the countries concerned start from widely divergent standards and investigations are needed to establish in great detail across each sector how much movement in those standards is needed before they can be treated as being broadly equivalent (as opposed to identical) and reciprocal markets opened up. By contrast, the EU and UK are starting from a set of identical standards and short term arrangements should be capable of being agreed in a matter of days.
So, given a will, short term post Brexit arrangements can still be put in place very quickly. What has been wasted is the opportunity to give businesses many months to plan with some certainty for a post Brexit world.
Which the EU won't accept, so it's not saving anything.
We don't know that for certain. The EU and the Irish haven't had to stir into the abyss and decide whether they prefer no deal or giving up on the backstop.
Why would the EU remove the backstop given that it still wouldn't guarantee passage of the WA through the House of Commons?
Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
With all due respect, that's a terrible reason not to back the deal.
Dislike it for the backstop - although I think that's overrated because the real issue is a political one in Northern Ireland - but not because a substantial minority of our opponents like it.
I'm not saying that's a reason not to back the deal. The backstop is all the reason I need to agree with May's own maxim that "no deal is better than a bad deal". I would vote Nay if I were an MP due to the backstop, but if the backstop could be addressed that would be sufficient for me to vote Aye.
My point was not an argument just an example. When people who were supposed to be against what you're doing suddenly become quite in favour, while those who were in favour turn against - it's quite clear you're not doing what was originally expected.
The way to save this deal is to axe the backstop. That is the only outcome that can command a majority of Parliament. Is anyone brave enough to make Barnier and Varadkar see sense?
For the umpteenth time axing the backstop means No Deal as Juncker made clear last night 'it is this Deal or No Deal.'
The only outcome the EU might consider and could command a majority in Parliament as Corbyn backs it is the whole UK staying in the Customs Union permanently rather than temporarily as the backstop
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Most of the country will not care if Brexit stops - they will simply adjust their cynicism level upwards. Politics is already held in very low regard.
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
I was referring to the campaign itself and the uncertain nature of the result
Norway saves us from that
If Norway / EEA is acceptable then we might as well remain. That way, say least, we have a say in things.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Most of the country will not care if Brexit stops - they will simply adjust their cynicism level upwards. Politics is already held in very low regard.
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
Yeah, Tory members and voters will just forget that their representatives just fucked them over harder than anyone's been fucked before. Of course, if you don't vote Tory, what you said.
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
Being a member of the EEA, like Norway, would mean:
- no CAP, no CFP - no EU law outside standards - single passport for financial services - substantially reduced payments - continued FoM
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Most of the country will not care if Brexit stops - they will simply adjust their cynicism level upwards. Politics is already held in very low regard.
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
I was referring to the campaign itself and the uncertain nature of the result
Norway saves us from that
If Norway / EEA is acceptable then we might as well remain. That way, say least, we have a say in things.
Which the EU won't accept, so it's not saving anything.
We don't know that for certain. The EU and the Irish haven't had to stir into the abyss and decide whether they prefer no deal or giving up on the backstop.
Why would the EU remove the backstop given that it still wouldn't guarantee passage of the WA through the House of Commons?
What happens to the meaningful vote on 11th December if Theresa has already faced a VONC in the Tory Party which she's lost?
I suspect if Gove announces the EEA/EFTA pivot, and also announces that Labour and the SNP and the DUP and the Lib Dems have all announced support provisional on May being fired into the sun, there's nothing she can do to stop that torpedo tube being greased.
Labour oppose the Norway/EEA option as the Shadow Justice minister made clear yesterday
There is no doubt the slippery Macron did May no favours with his fisheries comments. Probably hardened up opinion in the HoC this afternoon.
Of course permanent Customs Union reduces the need to resolve the future trading relationship and concede to Macron on fisheries
Dumb question, sorry, we can be in a permanent CU but out of the CFP and CAP yes?
That is Norway, as I understand it.
If it wasn't for the FoM, I think it would be a no brainer.
Edit to add: the EEA treaty also allows you to quit giving 12 months notice
So. We'd be in a Norway style agreement, with Farage, Boris et al touring the country promoting EEAexit almost immediately? Blaming immigrants for everything. Can't wait. What a prospect.
The prospects are not good considering how vicious and ugly a referendum or a GE would be.
I'm not sure the country could tolerate another referendum. It's such a bad idea on so many fronts.
On the other hand could the country tolerate NOT having another referendum?
Yes - it needs to avoid a nasty divisive process with no certain outlook. Norway is the way for lots of sound reasons
Most of the country will not care if Brexit stops - they will simply adjust their cynicism level upwards. Politics is already held in very low regard.
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
Yeah, Tory members and voters will just forget that their representatives just fucked them over harder than anyone's been fucked before. Of course, if you don't vote Tory, what you said.
Frankly, I do not give a d*mn about the survival of the Tory party. It is pandering to the Tory fringe that got us into this mess.
What happens to the meaningful vote on 11th December if Theresa has already faced a VONC in the Tory Party which she's lost?
I suspect if Gove announces the EEA/EFTA pivot, and also announces that Labour and the SNP and the DUP and the Lib Dems have all announced support provisional on May being fired into the sun, there's nothing she can do to stop that torpedo tube being greased.
Labour oppose the Norway/EEA option as the Shadow Justice minister made clear yesterday
In the circumstances of the SNP, DUP and many conservative and labour mps coalescing around it it is the best solution. No deal or second referendum are the pathway to utter division and chaos
For the umpteenth time axing the backstop means No Deal as Juncker made clear last night 'it is this Deal or No Deal.'
The only outcome the EU might consider and could command a majority in Parliament as Corbyn backs it is the whole UK staying in the Customs Union permanently rather than temporarily as the backstop
Would remaining permanently in the CU enjoy a majority among Conservative MPs? I realise it wouldn't have to if Labour and the SNP supported it but how many Conservatives would oppose it?
If the Commons rejects the Deal on the first vote I think May could pivot towards backing a permanent Customs Union for the UK given the Deal already includes a temporary Customs Union for the whole UK as the backstop and Corbyn backs a permanent Customs Union for the UK and May back the Deal in such circumstances
And when the EU says "OK, with continued FoM" then what?
Permanent Customs Union does not require free movement unlike permanent Single Market.
Labour's leadership opposes the Norway option as does the ERG as does May, however Labour's leadership backs permanent Customs Union and May has already agreed to the Customs Union as the backstop
Which the EU won't accept, so it's not saving anything.
We don't know that for certain. The EU and the Irish haven't had to stir into the abyss and decide whether they prefer no deal or giving up on the backstop.
Why would the EU remove the backstop given that it still wouldn't guarantee passage of the WA through the House of Commons?
Presumably the answer to your rhetorical question is that the EU nations consider that it would be a huge boost to their future prosperity to see their current trading surplus with the UK gradually dwindle away, and that they would rather see the UK retain the promised £39bn payment than for the UK to pass it over to the EU to be spent in their own countries.
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Since the people have gotten May into this mess in the first place are now the ones being tasked with getting her out of it, is it possible by "crack team" she means they are literally on crack?
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1067130496566595584
Would explain a few things.
I think it's already fairly obvious that wheels are in motion for a cross party EEA/EFTA deal. The only roadblock for that is May and the aborted fetus of her deal.
I am sure most voters would then have realised it's all too effin complicated and we're better off staying in.
This deal is the product of the kind of warped an unhinged brains that only civil servants possess.
TM must know that and needs to come to terms with tacking to Norway or resign
I do not see any other options. A second referendum would be lethal and divide us for decades
We've wasted, well, 2 years, but certainly the last half year. All that has happened is Remain enthusiasts have been given more and more reason to not accept any Brexit compromise.
Looks as if she wants the PMQs as opportunity to put forward what she plans to do.
Can't wait. What a prospect.
TM will need to make a statement to the HOC outlining her position and plans. PMQs is not a suitable vehicle for something as serious as that
Ever since then he's been quietly trying to drag us back from the precipice.
He's ALWAYS got some plot or scheme on the go...
But that wasn't my point. The point is she is choosing to also have a PMQs the day after - when she didn't have to.
lessful vote"?In such a scenario, it would be nice to think those 500 or so MPs might push back, and make a positive case for this being the end point, rather than pandering to the worst instincts for political capital.
Not holding my breath.
I very much doubt it will be immediate unless she resigns. However, walking away is not her style
The sickening spectacle of Corbyn and Arlene and Boris standing up to pour vast buckets of praise over May for her "tireless diligence" and "civic duty" and definitely no references to her being an incompetent, dishonest and frequently racist mess that has turned everything she touched to guano.
Edit - come to think of it, nor would Foster.
My point was not an argument just an example. When people who were supposed to be against what you're doing suddenly become quite in favour, while those who were in favour turn against - it's quite clear you're not doing what was originally expected.
The way to save this deal is to axe the backstop. That is the only outcome that can command a majority of Parliament. Is anyone brave enough to make Barnier and Varadkar see sense?
@SamCoatesTimes
6m6 minutes ago
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TRUMP SAYS BREXIT DEAL SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD DEAL FOR THE EU
TRUMP SAYS BREXIT AGREEMENT AS IT STANDS MEANS THE UK MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TRADE WITH THE U.S.
- Reuters
Those on the extremes who like to advocate violence will probably continue issuing threats, but like most keyboard warriors, nothing will come of it.
That leaves the Anorak Middle and that probably constitutes most loyal party followers who, no matter what their party does, will support it even if it is diametrically opposite to last week's policy.
OTOH - drive the UK off the WTO cliff and cause economic upsets and job losses, cancelled holidays or empty supermarkets and the protests will start.
No need. The message is there in plain English
Norway saves us from that
So, given a will, short term post Brexit arrangements can still be put in place very quickly. What has been wasted is the opportunity to give businesses many months to plan with some certainty for a post Brexit world.
The only outcome the EU might consider and could command a majority in Parliament as Corbyn backs it is the whole UK staying in the Customs Union permanently rather than temporarily as the backstop
Just like he fucked us.
Labour's leadership opposes the Norway option as does the ERG as does May, however Labour's leadership backs permanent Customs Union and May has already agreed to the Customs Union as the backstop